Werewolf, the alys mod version ;)

[Direwolf Jon]

Ummmm....We're thinking miss goddess moddess. I don't have any backup for it, but I think Zy might be right in his assumption.

[Alys Kinch]

well, what ever you are thinking, you won't find out with out a vote! so just letting the game go stagnant isn't an option. :D i want some blood!

[the dude]

i can safely assure you all that i am not the werewolf.

[Sirayn]

The game is pretty much lost. The chance of me picking the one werewolf from MsDanya, Zylazlo- and Direwolf Jon is slim indeed - actually it's 66% against. I'd bet on us lynching the wrong person. If none of us had been investigated by the finder, I would suggest going to night to narrow down the suspects, but since I've been proven innocent there would be the same three suspects tomorrow now as there are right now. Gambling time, baby! I'll place a vote before I leave for Oxford tomorrow morning.

[MsDanya]

well Sira, as you say it would be the same suspects.. I dont really care how we do this, but if Dire or Zy wants to vote, I think we should.. but I'm holding mine off till I know I'm voting for the werewolf..

[Alys Kinch]

well, by the same token, sira, you can't win if you don't place a vote. maybe you will get lucky. 66% isn't the same as 99.9999%. :D i am not trying to rush you guys, but come on! 42 pages :shock: and you are postponing the last vote. :D :D :D i want to know the outcome.

[the dude]

the dude is resurrected and eats the werewolf.

 

the end.

[Sirayn]

I'm strategising. You can't rush strategising. :P So far I have concluded that:

1. If somebody places a first vote they are most likely an innocent. The innocents need to lynch one specific person; the werewolf will take anyone who isn't them.

2. If somebody places a killing second vote they are most likely a werewolf but it's too late by then.

3. If one vote remains on one person for a long time the person is a werewolf.

4. Just because somebody wants to vote right now doesn't mean they're a werewolf. But it's an indicator.

5. Just because somebody doesn't want to vote right now doesn't mean they're a werewolf. But it's an indicator.

 

Yeah, so we're done for. :P I'm going to figure this out if it kills me.

[MsDanya]

so, from what you say Sira, any one of us three not seen persons is a werewolf? :lol:

 

I dont really know.. I want the innocents to win this one, but if we vote off the wrong person......

 

but Alys wants us to be done with this so I suggest we vote now and hope for the best..

[Sirayn]

I'm writing a huge long analysis of the game so far. I've read through the first 17 pages so far, which is a frankly herculean task, so please don't anybody do anything until I'm done. :D I'll kick off the voting when I post. I'm getting a very clear candidate from my readthrough.

 

edit: 26 pages! This is going to be the longest analysis of all time.

[the dude]

:shock: sirayn, i'm a pretty seasoned dm, relatively speaking. i think that you would crush any game i could conceive of. 8)

 

your metagame skills are to be bowed to.

 

how are you at power gaming.

[Sirayn]

I reread the game from beginning to end, which is a job I do not recommend to everyone, and came out with the following points.

 

DAY ONE

 

Let's talk about the day one lynch! Remember that? I wanted to lynch someone so I picked loki redfern because he wasn't talking at all. Now looking back, I can see somebody 110% behind that lynch all the way, and that person is Lukys Kinch (MsDanya). It's not black and white, but in hindsight, I find his eagerness to lynch suspicious. Based on my limited number of games with him I've often thought that Lukys is happy to go along with a crowd, and it wouldn't be the first time that he's backed an initiative of mine, but he practically started a crowd single-handedly there. This is the final vote count:

 

loki- 7 (sirayn, lukys, raena, goldy, kadere, winter mist, tessa)

zy- 2 (greify, direwolf)

nevare- 1 (dude)

raena- 1 (loki)

 

Take a particular look at the positioning of the werewolves here. Nevare is being doggedly voted for by the dude, whose radar is unnaturally good, and nobody is defending him because it's not a serious danger. The only werewolf we know of who voted is goldeneys who's up there voting for loki redfern right along with the others. The werewolves already have not voting for the innocent covered; although Nevare's been quiet at this point, he can claim that he didn't think loki redfern was guilty, thus making himself look more innocent by association. Is there an active werewolf who voted for somebody other than loki redfern? Surely not.

 

sirayn, lukys, raena, goldy, kadere, winter mist, tessa. Subtract me, the angel, the lynched and the dead and we have ... why yes, Lukys Kinch (MsDanya). Where's Zylazlo- right now? Not voting. Why would the werewolves scatter their vote like that?

 

DAY TWO

 

Overnight Tessa has bitten the dust. There's ten pages of day one and I didn't pay the closest attention to Tessa in particular, I was more looking at the three surviving suspects, but I retain the distinct impression that she only ever accused me. I can't imagine why anyone would think she had a role; she didn't drop any hints that I saw. I still believe that Tessa was killed to make me look guilty. Why? Try this on for size.

 

Tessa on day one:

 

So I go with Sirayn (BOLD VOTE) purely based on what I have said above...I know it doesn't help the voting but don't have any other ideas and Loki doesn't feel like a hairy person...though could be wrong *sighs*

 

goldeneys on day two:

 

We should have listened to Tessa, now that she is dead maybe we will...

 

Since we now know that goldeneys was a werewolf, this couldn't be clearer if they had written STITCH-UP all over it in giant letters. I trust the reaction to that little incident convinced them better than to try that one again. But here is something interesting! Right after one werewolf is trying to hammer nails into my coffin, up pops Zylazlo-.

 

Seriously the errors of the past have been lynching productive and theory filled people just because they're smart enough to play the game on a whole other level than us.

 

I'm thinking Zylazlo- and goldeneys are not exactly singing from the same hymn sheet here!

 

Seriously. Look at that little sequence and tell me you're seeing something different to me. I read it as killing the only person whose death should logically throw huge suspicion on me, backed up by a werewolf writing "LYNCH SIRAYN!" in neon highlighter pen ... followed by his werewolf partner disagreeing? I think not. This gives me a strong feeling that Zylazlo- is innocent.

 

NB: Direwolf Jon asks to be investigated here. To an extent I view this as an innocent's move. There are many players and the werewolves can keep their heads down easily; you don't need to draw attention to yourself by asking to be investigated. It could be a double bluff, of course, but why take the risk? You'll note that the other two people pushing to be investigated are Raena and I, an angel and an innocent respectively.

NB II: Zylazlo does the same here. Same as above, only with higher possibility of double-bluffing, since Zylazlo- can now hide in a larger pool of people who have all asked to be investigated. Still thinking that the werewolves would keep their heads down. goldeneys, for example, is certainly not asking to be investigated! Nevare is being replaced at this point in my readthrough so he isn't around to talk but I'd put money on him not drawing the seer's attention either.

 

The exchange beginning here is interesting. Let me copy and paste:

 

loki redfern (WEREWOLF)

 

ok so another hunch then: as i never liked the number 8 i'll go for Direwolf Jon (BOLD VOTE)

 

Direwolf Jon (SUSPECT)

 

:roll: Yeah, cause that's a good reason to vote for someone Loki.

 

loki redfern (WEREWOLF)

 

dude sorry, but it as good a reason as any i can see at the moment any i dont feel like voting for people just because they got more votes, just at the moment anyway. that was a good way to try and change my mind. what ist thou scared of, is my hunch to close to the truth? irie mon.

 

Direwolf Jon (SUSPECT)

 

Nope, your hunch is far from correct. I already said, let the seer view me. A vote for me is going to help the werewolves because there will be one less innocent villager left in the game. A vote for me is a waste of a vote Loki.

 

loki redfern (WEREWOLF)

 

ah but unfortunatly now my stubborn pride will now not let me back down and change it at a later point, even if i wanted to. sorry bout that one of my many character flaws, :roll: what can one do.

 

Vote count at this point goes like this.

 

zy- 3 (winter, direwolf, griefy)

griefy- 3 (zy, kadere, MsDanya)

kadere- 1 (raena)

direwolf- 1 (loki)

 

Again you could argue that this was a double bluff. There's clearly no chance of Direwolf Jon ever being lynched. You could also make a convincing argument that loki redfern is drawing attention away from his partner Zylazlo- who is up there with an uncomfortable 3 votes. That said ... why would a werewolf ever draw attention to his own partner in this way? This supports Zylazlo- possibly being a werewolf but definitely not Direwolf Jon. Innocent brownie points to Direwolf Jon.

 

NB: The theory that werewolves = Zylazlo- + loki redfern + goldeneys takes a beating here.

NB II: Zylazlo- asks again to be investigated.

 

DAY THREE

 

Winter Mist is killed overnight. Her main suspect was Zylazlo-. In hindsight I don't know why I used this as evidence to suggest lynching Zylazlo-; the werewolves have demonstrated a liking for killing innocents to cast suspicion on other innocents, as seen the day before, and the previous person framed in this way was ... well, me. I would say that this actually makes Zylazlo- look more innocent to me.

 

Yikes! Here's goldeneys:

 

well, I suppose everyone is under suspicion, but I can assure you that I, your mayor am innocent. At this point no one is free of suspicion in my eyes, though I do feel better about the dude than anyone else. But could it be that the two who left were werewolves? is that how they got replacements so quick? Only time will tell.

 

My personal suspicion up until that point was that both of them were werewolves. This is not founded on metagaming about them being replaced; I pay my respects to the dead dude by not metagaming. ;) We know for definite that Nevare was a werewolf and in this post I'm amassing quite some evidence that Zylazlo- and Direwolf Jon are innocent whereas the little evidence I have on MsDanya indicates that she's guilty. This makes me stop and think, though. Why would goldeneys endanger both his partners in this way?

 

dude reveals. I quiz him. The reason behind my cross-examination, apart from not wanting to be hoodwinked by a fake claim, is that I'm trying to underhandedly encourage a counter-claim. There is a swift and summary way to deal with competing claimants. I wanted to use it - but I was denied that opportunity. Next time counter-claim, you evil lupine people! You had three people, you could have risked at least one to counter. :(

 

I'm trying desperately not to comment on the replacements metagame discussion that goes on right here. I am shutting it out of my mind entirely. Shutting it! Shutting it!

 

NB: Direwolf Jon asks again to be investigated.

 

The big event on day three is that loki-as-Nevare gets lynched. Luckily for all of us, he's a werewolf. You can see some interesting patterns in the voting. For example, by this post by goldeneys, there are only 2 votes on loki-as-Nevare and 1 vote by loki-as-Nevare on Raena. However, the post clearly shows that goldeneys is beginning to think his partner is in trouble. loki-as-Nevare continues to defend himself and try to throw suspicion onto Raena, who isn't even voting for him, as she - like I - am unconvinced about people's hunches.

 

loki 2- 2 (the dude, direwolf)

raena- 3 (loki, kadere, goldy)

zy- 1 (MsDanya)

 

This is where the voting begins to get interesting. By this point, two werewolves are voting for Raena. That's my idea of a concerted werewolf effort to get the attention off loki-as-Nevare and onto Raena. Is there a hidden werewolf vote on loki-as-Nevare? Is there hell! More innocent brownie points to Direwolf Jon.

 

And what happens next? Here's the confusing bit. I mentioned this before, I keep bringing it up because I can't get into the werewolves' heads here. Zylazlo- votes for loki-as-Nevare. An hour later, so does goldeneys, a confirmed werewolf. At some point before goldeneys switched to loki-as-Nevare either he independently or the werewolf group decided to send loki-as-Nevare down. I just can't figure out whether Zylazlo- is part of this decision or whether his vote is part of the trigger that forces the werewolves to put the nails in loki-as-Nevare's coffin.

 

DAY FOUR

 

Overnight I become convinced that Raena is evil. The paranoia is getting too much. Then I actually analyse the voting patterns and figure out that's improbable. My analysis categorises Direwolf Jon as not suspicious, Zylazlo- as uncertain and MsDanya as very suspicious. This is still my suspect list.

 

Another overnight action is that the werewolves try and fail to eradicate the dude. Excellent play by Raena - no surprises there. She is also confirmed innocent by the dude following investigation. Due partly to my analysis, which puts Kadere and MsDanya at the top of our lynch list, and partly due to Raena's long-standing suspicion of Kadere, we mass lynch Kadere. goldeneys manages to absolutely convince everyone that Kadere is guilty by standing up for him.

 

NB: goldeneys is consistently pushing Direwolf Jon.

 

DAY FIVE

 

Unfortunately goldeneys' play yesterday also gets him investigated overnight! It's the one highlight to a day otherwise downcast by the night kill of Raena, our angel and the other half of my evil sadistic mafia-playing soul. I'm not going to go through post by post because you all know what happened seeing as it's only day six now. We talk, we think, we lynch goldeneys, the dude is killed at night as predicted. And that brings us up to ...

 

DAY SIX

 

... whereupon I vote to lynch MsDanya. :P

[goldeneys]

wooooooooow, his ghostlyness the mayor is...impressed.

[Sirayn]

Thank you! Glad to amuse. :roll:

[Zylazlo-]

Okay... we all know I'm going to vote Danya and that's it I guess... game over, Alys the veredict please... *doesn't want to be wrong*

 

Btw Sira... can't believe you actually wrote all thsat down... my fingers hurt just reading it... totally amazing on your part.

[Sirayn]

If it turns out that I picked the right lynch, it was a sound investment of time and effort, not to mention a pleasure. If not I think I will cry. :P Will the real last werewolf please stand up? Game's over!

[goldeneys]

*pokes DJ*

 

I think she means you.

[Zylazlo-]

Pffft it's so Danya... well I hope so anyways... still this game was so fun! 42 pages! I think we made a record!

[Sirayn]

You're winding me up now goldeneys. :cry:

 

edit: you are winding me up, right? Seriously?

[Zylazlo-]

He's probably just yanking our chain, I mean he is a sneaky one!

[Alys Kinch]

i'm not telling, i am not telling!

[Sirayn]

*spontaneous combustion!*

[Zylazlo-]

*spontaneous liquification*

[Sirayn]

*tsssss*

 

Steam. :D

[Alys Kinch]

we are waiting for dj and danya to come in and say something.