The Attack on Algarin's Manor (Re-Post for DMDB)

[Etzel]

If it was Greandal who sent those trollocs, why then would Moridin first pretend to be upset in KoD, only to turn around and applaud her initiative in tGS? I can only see that being reasonable is that Moridin never discovers that it was indeed Greandal, if she did send them.

 

Yeah, I would definitely say that Moridin didn't figure out that Graendal posed as Sammael. He might have had this suspicion, though he likely rather considered that Demandred would pose as another male Forsaken and General.

 

I think Semirhage isn't that likely, because IIRC Rand already arranged a meeting with the Seanchan at this time. There was no need to sent this big Trolloc army to "move" Rand to do something. Besides that, if the whole plot to capture Rand was agreed upon by Moridin and Semirhage (and Shaidar Haran, as we learn in TGS), I don't see why Semirhage would additionally send a Trolloc army in a Sammael-disguise without Moridin's knowledge and even against his orders, especially since always a little risk remains that Rand is harmed or killed. I think one could only argue that Semirhage wanted Rand to be dead, before the meeting, so that she didn't have to risk a direct confrontation.

[Sab]

Don't forget Moridin as it has been pointed out in other Forsakens POV's is crazy, they mention he isn't any saner now then before he died.  So he might at time make statements that contradict.  Doubt he sent the trollocs and pretty sure he has no idea who did it.  My money is on Demandred.  Seems soemthing that wasn't meant to kill Rand but make him desperate.  After all as a forsaken might see it if things went really bad Rand could make a gateway and run for it.

[Naffy]

This is very straight forward, actually.  Mashadar consumed Sammael, and thus Fain can now pose as Sammael (mark and all).  He wants Rand more dead than anyone.  He sent the attack.

[Mr Ares]

This is very straight forward, actually.  Mashadar consumed Sammael, and thus Fain can now pose as Sammael (mark and all). He wants Rand more dead than anyone. He sent the attack.

It doesn't follow that because Shadar Logoth killed Sammael Fain can impersonate him, and Fain doesn' want Rand dead, he wants to kill Rand. Important difference.

[Luckers]

This is very straight forward, actually. 

 

Don't make me eviscerate you.

 

Mashadar consumed Sammael, and thus Fain can now pose as Sammael (mark and all).  He wants Rand more dead than anyone.  He sent the attack.

 

The Chosen Mark involves a direct, constantly active connection to the Shadow. We know this for two points.

 

1. As per RJ we know using the True Power is a matter of asking the Dark One permission, and being granted it. This is a constantly active connection, of which the Dark One is conciously aware. The Black Threads play their part in this (though they are not the link itself, as per RJ's comments). We know this because Ishamael lost the True Power when Rand severed the Black Threads.

 

2. The Chosen Mark is similarily linked to the Black Threads. We know this because Asmodean's Chosen Mark was destroyed when Rand sliced the Black Threads--severing them destroyed Asmodean's protection from Shadowspawn, which is a direct result of the Mark.

 

These points mean that Fain manifesting this ability involves a mark which directly links him to the Dark One--something Fain would never do, and something the Dark One would never condone.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

Ya, Fain wants to kill Rand personally and the attack on the manor was designed to see Rand dead, so it pretty much rules out Fain.  Whomever it was had the Chosen Mark, so that limits the candidates.

 

We know it wasn't Moridin or Arangar.  The question of who ordered it appears to be an ongoing topic, so I doubt it was a dead person, so that rules out Graendal.  Messana was busy doing other things, it's not Moghidien's style and I'm tired of everyone making Demandred responsible everytime someone so much as stubs their toe.

 

My personal thought is Lanfear/Cyndane.  We know that she can use Rand's taveren ability to find him and that she's a pissed off, crazy-assed bitch who wants him dead.  Moridin would crush her mindtrap in a heartbeat if he found she ordered this, so she posed as Sammael in order to get them moving, and she's insane enough to take that kind of risk.

[Naffy]

Despite the glaringly obvious holes in my theory you all pointed out, I still think it was Fain. ;D

[Tom Sawyer]

Despite the glaringly obvious holes in my theory you all pointed out, I still think it was Fain. ;D

 

That's cool.  I still think Taim's Demandred despite all the explicit evidence denying that.  If they have a scene in the next book with Taim and Demandred talking to each other, I'll ignore that evidence too.  Everyone's got their own theories that they get overly attached to and don't want to give up.  ;D

[Paerish Swar]

I want to reiterate the theory that the attack was not meant to kill Rand, but rather was meant to flush him out of hiding and increase the incentive for him to make it to the meeting with the Daughter of the Nine Moons (Semirhage).

 

The Shadow's big plan was to get the Domination Band around Rand's throat.  So we should at least ask if the attack on Algarin's manor could have been a part of that plan.

 

Moridin certainly knew of the plan, and was perhaps the instigator of it, and he seemed very intent on it coming to fruition.  Moridin has plenty of access to the numbers of Trollocs that were sent to the manor, as well as having access to easy means of tracking Rand.  (That same night Rand saw Moridin's face without first touching Saidin.) 

 

Also, everyone knew that Rand had the Choedan Kal, so they couldn't have thought that a Trolloc attack would have been successful at killing him, and we know that Moridin especially has no intention of killing Rand at this point.

 

I think that makes him a likely suspect.

 

But here is an alternate reading of the sequence of events.

 

Semirhage, Demandred and Mesaana have their little "alliance."  They could have easily cooked this up between them.

 

We know that Moridin, Lanfear, and Fain have the ability to track Rand, but how might anyone else track him down?  Well, we know right after Semirhage was captured by Rand & co. that Mesaana and Demandred call a meeting with Moridin.  Mesaana mentions that they have a "woman there."  This is quite certainly Elza. 

 

Elza has been with Rand since the first moment they went to Algarin's manor.  If Mesaana has had regular access to Elza, then she had regular access to Rand's position.

 

When Bashere was sent to Ebou Dar to set up a meeting with the Daughter of the Nine Moons, Suroth puts him off for a couple of days, and then finally decides to set up the meeting.  Tuon wasn't even in Ebou Dar at the time, so the order to set up the meeting at that moment must have come from Semirhage.  But what night was it that the meeting was finally set up?  The same night as the attack on the manor.  The next morning Bashere informs Rand that the meeting was set up.

 

If Mesaana gave Demandred Rand's position, he could have easily begun to coordinate the Trollocs at that point.  Demandred's knowledge as a General and knowing the tools that Rand had access to would let him know that there was little likelihood that the attack would kill Rand (which is good for Demmi because he would likely prefer that Rand die in his presence), but that it would still be a "closely run thing."  Just enough to spook Rand out of hiding and force his hand.

 

This would be like using the "Hammer and Anvil" strategy.  Demandred sends Trollocs to be the Hammer that drives Rand into Semirhage's Anvil.

 

Also, if the Sammael imposter's Trollocs were one and the same as the Algarin manor Trollocs (which interpretation I am not a fan of), that could implicate Demandred.  We do know that he loves to stay under the radar and keep everyone off his tracks.  He might have chosen to do it that way because he didn't know that the Domination Band plan with Semirhage had been initiated by Moridin (which he didn't), and so he decided to be sneaky about it so as not to bring Moridin's unwanted attentions upon himself.

 

So.  There's an alternate theory.  Mesaana used Elza to track Rand, Demandred brought the Trollocs to flush out Rand, Semirhage coordinated the timing of her plans so that the meeting with the DotNM would be confirmed right after the attack when Rand would be at his most desperate.

 

I absolutely think that the attack was just an effort to flush out Rand, and I still think that Moridin was behind it all.  But if it wasn't Moridin, I think that this is a very likely alternative.

 

Demandred did it - in coordination with Semirhage and Mesaana.

[DemandredFO]

The attack was meant to kill rand if it could or else someone was really stupid.

First, there was no gaurantee that Rand would use the CK or Callandor which he didn't Second,no gaurantee that Rand would learn powerful war weaves, he did and still almost died

Third, he still almost died because of Lews Therin

I don't the trio would do it, all busy elsewhere and demandred likely wants to make Rand into a rug personally.  Unless Arangar was lying to himself, no dice.  Moridin may have done it.  Moghedien could have done it if she wanted to kill Nyneave badly enough.  Lanfear certainly would have done it if she could get away with it.  Greandal, who I don't think is dead, probably didn't do it because I'd think she'd be more subtle.  Most of all though, I still like Taim for it.

[Luckers]

Mmm. I mean think about--either Rand does use the Choedan Kal and shrugs the attack off like nothing, or he doesn't and it actually risks kill him--neither serves the purpose of simply flushng him out.

[MikeRiley]

You don't send a trolloc attack to kill somebody who can simply travel away if the fight grew too hot. The attack was not meant to kill him. It might have been an attempt to flush him out, it might have been an attempt to kill somebody close to him, or to make him flee in a rush possibly leaving things of importance behind.

 

The trollocs were ordered to keep silent until they got close enough to rush the manor. This could have left Rand very disorganized if it worked. If Rand was forced to flee it would also give him grief about dooming everybody left behind at the manor and would only push him to the dark faster.

[Paerish Swar]

You don't send a trolloc attack to kill somebody who can simply travel away if the fight grew too hot. The attack was not meant to kill him. It might have been an attempt to flush him out, it might have been an attempt to kill somebody close to him, or to make him flee in a rush possibly leaving things of importance behind.

 

Exactly.

 

A Trolloc attack is certainly not ideal if attempting to kill a channeler who can Travel.  Plus, channelers (and Warders) can sense Shadowspawn before they get close enough to begin their attack.  It's a handy little early warning system.  It's all just really clumsy if it were meant to kill him.

 

But the numbers involved in the attack are certainly daunting.  Just the kind of thing that would force someone to make a move - to force his hand.

[Duskfire]

I agree; the attack was meant to force his hand. Not to mention maybe make him that little bit more paranoid and suspicious; if he believes he isn't safe anywhere and can't trust anyone, that makes Rand that little more secluded from his friends and allies. Exactly what we saw happen in TGS. His thoughts regarding almost everyone was of mistrust and paranoia; heck, he even questioned Narishma and Dobraine!

 

There is no way anyone could believe that a bunch of Trollocs could kill Rand. They barely made it to the house.

[Tom Sawyer]

 

There is no way anyone could believe that a bunch of Trollocs could kill Rand. They barely made it to the house.

 

The only reason they barely made it to the house was that Logain had just shown up with 50 Ashamen and a bunch of Aes Sedai.  The defensive force at the manor was far greater than had been anticipated when the attack was launched and even with that, at least one Fade got within a couple steps of killing Rand.  It was designed to overrun and destroy everyone who was there, including Rand.

[Duskfire]

 

There is no way anyone could believe that a bunch of Trollocs could kill Rand. They barely made it to the house.

 

The only reason they barely made it to the house was that Logain had just shown up with 50 Ashamen and a bunch of Aes Sedai.  The defensive force at the manor was far greater than had been anticipated when the attack was launched and even with that, at least one Fade got within a couple steps of killing Rand.  It was designed to overrun and destroy everyone who was there, including Rand.

 

Yeah but if Logain and the Asha`man hadn't turned up, what would have stopped Rand and everyone else from just Travelling away. Granted a fair few of Basheres soldiers would have been lost, but between Rand, Alivia, Cadsuane etc etc they would have been able to get everyone away who was inside the House. And Rand even thinks to himself a few chapters later how if the Forsaken found him there, they can find him anywhere.

[Cirin]

Well, not to put them down or anything, but they are only Trollocs.  At no point in the series have trollocs been a terribly precious commodity.  Send some trollocs to attack - puts the Dragon Reborn on edge, maybe kills some of his men, if you're lucky maybe they even kill one of his friends or even the Dragon himself.  If it fails, oh well.  All you lose is some trollocs.

[bobothebarbarian]

I agree that it was most likely Taim but the WHO is not even the big question the question should be HOW

Luckers says

Troop Movement; The Machin Shin Problem

 

If it wasn’t Fain, with his ability to command Machin Shin, then how did one hundred thousand Trollocs move through the waves unmolested by the Black Wind? Based on Moiraine and Rand’s fights with Machin Shin channelling does not provide the answer—the strongest channeler on earth could not have protected and shielded that many Trollocs for the time it took them to move through the Ways—and that many all at once should have attracted the Wind immediately upon entering.

 

When Was The Attack Launched

 

One of the suggested answers for the Machin Shin problem is that the movement was staggered. Sent bit by bit and built up in Tear before initiating the attack, much like how Isam gathered forces in the Two Rivers. Unfortunately this suggestion is just as problematic as the issue it is attempting to solve. Consider;-

 

According to the Steven Cooper Timeline, Rand has been at the manor in Tear for 28 days. Even sending the Trollocs through the ways in small groups, to have gathered a hundred thousand in twenty-eight days they would need to send at least 7100 through at a time, which given Machin Shin's nature is as impossible as the hundred thousand. Furthermore we know pretty much every Trolloc that was sent made it to the manor in tear, or rather every Myrdraal which amounts to the same thing in a group scenario. Even sending them in groups shouldn't be possible if Machin Shin were doing its job properly.

 

So Is Machin Shin Doing It’s Job?

 

Perhaps not. This provides the most viable answer to the Machin Shin problem—that rather than someone figuring out a way to get around it, it simply wasn’t there to cause a problem to begin with. Specifically I’m talking of its changing nature--ever since it encountered Fain in tEotW we have seen its behaviour change--waiting at Waygates, trying to force its way out and at times appearing as if it might succeed. These changes occurred within a six month period, and it has been a further year and half since then for it to continue to change.

 

Either way, whatever is going on with Machin Shin it did not attack the Trollocs, and that doesn’t stand as evidence that a plan was put in place by the person who ordered this attack for sending the Trollocs through in small groups.  As such Moridin's comments indicate a certain degree of immediacy--he learned of it, and summoned the meeting in TAR straight away to issue his commands that the missing Trollocs be watched for. Likely within the last three or four days.

which is all absolutely correct. So lets look a little deeper in to what we know of  Machin Shin. the ways grew dark and Machin Shin was born of the taint on sadin so is it possible that Machin Shin is dead now that the taint is gone? the only other explanation i can think of is that fain has been absorbing the black wind for the last year and half, and i dont really think that happened 

[Duskfire]

which is all absolutely correct. So lets look a little deeper in to what we know of  Machin Shin. the ways grew dark and Machin Shin was born of the taint on sadin so is it possible that Machin Shin is dead now that the taint is gone? the only other explanation i can think of is that fain has been absorbing the black wind for the last year and half, and i dont really think that happened

 

Q:  Would it be cleaned with the cleansing of saidin?

RJ: No. It's like a bacteria breed. Just by cleaning up the chemicals that caused the bacteria to come into existence, unless its feeding on that, those chemicals, you are not going to destroy the bacteria. You simply cut off what helped to create it.

 

 

So yeah, Machin Shin is still there. I personally like the theory that there is an unknown way of moving shadowspawn about; there are far too many examples in the series of shadowspawn mysteriously popping up in a location that would be incredibly hard for them to get to without being noticed.

[Luckers]

The problem with the attack being launched to draw him out or to incite in him into doing something is that that's not a reliable response. You claim he could just travel away, but there is no chance he could get everyone away and the Forsaken are aware of how he feels about women. They could not rely on the fact that he would flee.

 

And to what gain? You speak of drawing him out but if he were forced to flee is it not more likely that he would go to ground (as indeed he did). Don't get me wrong, relying on the fact that he would not have travelled is as stupid as relying on the fact that he would, I'm just saying that planning on either would have been impossible.

 

At best the 'he might have travelled' fits in with the 'he might have used the Choedan Kal' in making this attack stupid--a stab in the dark. Which again lines it for either being Taim with his blunt methodology of striking blindly on the chance he'd hit as long as it can't be traced to him (like he did with the attack on the Sun Palace), or Cyndane in her desperation to kill Rand and the strictures of her imprisonment to Moridin.

[Charlz Guybon]

If you have one hundred myrddraal, why not have them all pop out of the shadows in the mannor at the same time? Surely that would have been more effective than wasting 100,000 Trollocs along with them.

[The Desert Pea]

If you have one hundred myrddraal, why not have them all pop out of the shadows in the mannor at the same time? Surely that would have been more effective than wasting 100,000 Trollocs along with them.

 

Come on now Charlz, that would've been too practical of a plan for the characters of this series to come up with ;)

[Charlz Guybon]

If you have one hundred myrddraal, why not have them all pop out of the shadows in the mannor at the same time? Surely that would have been more effective than wasting 100,000 Trollocs along with them.

 

Come on now Charlz, that would've been too practical of a plan for the characters of this series to come up with ;)

Of course, they may have assumed he warded the manor against that.

[Dida]

If you have one hundred myrddraal, why not have them all pop out of the shadows in the mannor at the same time? Surely that would have been more effective than wasting 100,000 Trollocs along with them.

 

Come on now Charlz, that would've been too practical of a plan for the characters of this series to come up with ;)

Of course, they may have assumed he warded the manor against that.

 

Not if Moridin himself sent the attack, as Moridin knows each time Rand uses Saidin because of their bizarre mental linkage.  If Rand set a ward Moridin could know what he was doing, as long as Moridin's face pops up in Rand's mind.  I suspect even Moridin needs to see weaves to be able to read them.

[MikeRiley]

Fain doesn't have anything to do with Machin Shin. He survived his encounter with it because of his connection with Mordeth, but Machin Shin took its orders from Ishamael.

 

We know this for a few reasons. Fain believed Rand was going to follow him to Falme within a few days after leaving Caemlyn. Rand did try - Machin Shin was set to guard against him entering the Ways. At the beginning of The Shadow Rising (or maybe The Dragon Reborn) we see Fain dealing with the Whitecloaks and he is visibly upset with the fact that Rand did not follow him like he thought he would. This does not fit with a person who set watch on the Ways so that Rand would have to spend a long time traveling the normal way.

 

Now, also in The Great Hunt we see another interesting thing. Liandrin had a paper with directions to lead her through the Ways. She was not worried in any way about Machin Shin and when one of the wonder girls asked her what they'd do if they encountered it, they said it couldn't be stopped. Liandrin had a mocking smile and told them Moiraine doesn't know as much as she thinks she does. She knew Machin Shin would not trouble her party, she was given assurance of it.

 

Ishamael made good use of the Ways. After Rand slipped away from the Caemlyn trap via the Ways, Ishamael would have set Machin Shin to guard against his further use of them. So at the beginning of The Great Hunt, Machin Shin would already be set on guard duty. Rand having access to the Ways makes his movement too unpredictable. Further, he and Lanfear were working closely to force him to channel. By channeling they meant to have a tie on him due to the taint and force him to madness and accepting the Dark One.

 

We know Ishamael and Lanfear were both working together on this (and possibly Ba'lal too). Lanfear took Rand to the other world via the portal stone and put herself in a position where Rand would be forced to channel in order to save her from the grolm. This did not work so more grolm were set loose to force him to channel at the portal stone to take them back. Of course, she was never really in danger, but Rand didn't know that. She didn't expect him to be such a good shot with a bow. In this portal world Rand is visited first by Ishamael who tried to force him to channel, then again by Lanfear as Selene who tried to lure him to it through glory. Now, this all happened before Rand's attempt to go through the Ways, but Lanfear had been stalking Rand and keeping an eye on him. Going through the Ways would end their plan early, by having Rand unable to use them they would have greater time to work on him.

 

Ishamael also chose the Ways as the setting for a few "dreams that aren't dreams" in the first two books, and for one meeting with some of the other forsaken. I know you can't enter a Waygate in TAR, but what if you entered the Ways in the flesh then entered TAR from there? However it was done, it was done and shows us that Ishamael had the Ways on his mind. That being a minor point, but it does help to say he has a lot of experience with this place.

 

 

Later in the series, we see The Shadow Rising where a few trollocs entered the Ways to reach the Two Rivers. Machin Shin had no orders to allow them to pass, but they were sent through only a few at a time until Perrin appeared. It just wasn't needed at first. Loial locked the Waygate and Machin Shin feasted. Slayer suggests to Perrin there were a good many trollocs at this point that died in the Ways. We then see a switch - after Perrin's appearance in the Two Rivers, the trollocs no longer enter the Ways in small parties. There is a massive amount of trollocs moved to the Two Rivers to destroy it. Machin Shin would not have made such troop movement possible, so an order must have come to it after the Waygate was again unlocked. Ishamael was Slayer's employer at the time, which we know from his vermin statement regarding Slayer's targets.. this in Knife of Dreams I think.

 

After that we of course have massive troop movements as Moridin musters the trollocs and moves them where they need to go. A few were redirected to Algarin's Manor and Machin Shin was not around to stop it. So it must have been Ishamael. It certainly was not Fain whose plans were foiled by Machin Shin.

 

 

 

Luckers, Rand would not choose death at the hands of the trollocs when he could channel once and escape. Even if he would, the forsaken would never believe it. The concept is too foreign to them. If anything they would believe Rand would make a hasty escape with as many people as possible and have the deaths of everybody else on his conscience. This would push him into a darker mood and leave the possibility that some of his close companions would die or that he would leave something important behind in his escape. The attack was too big to just let him know his location was known, but it was not an attack directed at a channeler with the intent to kill. If it was then the gholam would have been there first, or slayer.