[DPR Mafia] Call-Your-Shot Mafia- Points being posted...

[Kivam]

I think I still believe Barm.  He's played pretty risky for an SK.  Of course there's always the possibility of reverse psychology and WIFOM.

 

It'd still be a blind alley for him - cop needs to investigate him now, so he'll get caught if he's lying.

 

Still think I'm playing a team game with Barm, Wombat?

[Naeann]

Pale why are you repeatedly ignoring Kiv's and other's request for you to tell us who you picked the second night?  You are looking incredibly scummy by not telling.

[WWWwombat]

I don't remember suggesting you and Barm were on a team.  As of this moment, I think you are what you say you are.

[Kivam]

I don't remember suggesting you and Barm were on a team.  As of this moment, I think you are what you say you are.

 

Hmmm . . . though you had said so back on Day 2, must have confused you with somebody else. 

 

Right now, my top lynch candidate is still Pete, because of the contradictions day 2, the erratic push for Barm day 1, and the fact that he's still coming after me.  But I'm trying to do a serious, person by person reread.

 

Speaking of which, I need to finish Talya

[Guest dragonsworn1991]

I think he isn't saying, because the mafia could target that person and they would die anyway, or they could target someone else and get two kills instead of one.

 

Or at least that is how I understood his post. It is really weak reasoning but it is something I can understand.

[Kivam]

Reread strikes again.  Wombat suggested I was scum with Talmanes, not Barm  :D

 

Day 2 - calls out Barm as possible finder.  This is where she starts skewing all wrong to me:

 

Someone said it was Darkfirends we used to call the mafia, in fact it was Werewolves...those were the days!

 

So you are trying to take over from the Dude barm, lol. When you did it in the other game, I'm sure you had some kind of finder role but couldn't tell so you did that to get people to vote, But I could be wrong. Oh and I'm not saying you are the finder. I'm just reminiscing.

 

i don't think 3 votes are worth worrying about it yet. More people have come on and haven't voted for you, Pete.

 

I have to say that I thought the Govenor role was pro town. I've never seen it mafia. But can he use it on himself, sometimes they can't.

 

If you are the Govenor Pete you may want to check that out!

After I call her on potentially blowing Barm's cover:

Whjy would his cover be blown? It doesn't mena he is a finder...I was just talking about it like you guys.. so tough luck. If he is so stupid as to try that again that is his problem, because the healer maybe not have known it and the mafia could well have known it... :P

 

I found this a very questionable response.  Almost sympish.  Her response to my explaining why his cover was blown:

 

If DS is scum...

 

I was reluctant to vote for Pete, but I do think that if he does have that role then he can save himself before the lynch. Doesn't make him innocent, but I would be more inclined to think he was. However if his lynch goes through then he was lying and hopefully we have another mafia.

 

Overall I think those are pretty good odds for a lynch. If however he is innocent and false claiming, then it's on his head, after all the reveals I would have thought that was not a good idea!!

 

Pete

 

I can't see the clue at the beginning of day 2 Alys. but then that might be me.

 

If Pete is innocent, I hope that wasn't the only use of his ability, because then he would be useless, and he should done what Nae suggested, sacrificed himself for the innocents.

 

The fact we have gone to night with no info, kind of stinks. The lynch would have giving us something at least. Now we are still guessing over Barm and Pete.

 

 

Responding to Pale asking if the consensus was Pandy and Nae are in the clear

You are supposed to be making your own mind up, or are you here just to follow the majority?

 

So which one was on Pale's kill last night, I'm sure he didn't reveal it, only that Barm was for tonight?

 

It's a shame that Alys has gone. I hope she wasn't the person Pale choose for the kill last night. Because it was obvious she had some kind of good info. She wouldn't be one i would have wanted to get rid of until proven (as much as you can be) mafia. Of course, we don't know for sure that this role is a pro town role! It's saving grace is that Pale can stop that person being killed and sacrifice himself. Seems a bit odd if that was a Mafia role. That is of course he does that!

 

There was something Kivam brought up about Lav saying that she was confused by all the role revealing. If she has played in any games recently on DM, it wouldn't be too much of a surprise for her. They seem to do it at a drop of a hat.

 

Kiv, I look forward to your analysis! :)

 

And that's it.  My sense that something was off from Talya was mainly based on those odd posts on Day 2.  Like Lavinya, she goes into the "bears watching" group, IMO.

[Kivam]

I think he isn't saying, because the mafia could target that person and they would die anyway, or they could target someone else and get two kills instead of one.

 

Or at least that is how I understood his post. It is really weak reasoning but it is something I can understand.

 

That made sense before Barm's reveal (if Barm was the tree stump, we'd have kept Pale over Barm, and there'd be no need for him to paint a target on the night 2 person).  But since we want Pale to take the bullet for Barm, we now need to know in advance that killing Pale tonight won't screw us over tomorrow.

[Guest dragonsworn1991]

You actually followed my train of thought that time.  :D

 

And what if the second person is of = importance as Barm? Who do we sacrifice, our delayed vig or two roles that are of equal importance?

[WWWwombat]

At least 2 of them will die no matter what, right?

[Far Dareis Mai]

We always save the healer or the cop. Always.

 

Face it Pale, you made a colossal mistake, and neither myself or anyone else is going to 'get off your back' until you man up and tell us who you just decided to bump off night two. Did you ever stop to think that you could have potentially targeted mafia night 2, and that by revealing their name and forcing them to lie about a claim, we can easily counter them and be another mafia down? Do you have any idea of how much information that will give us, considering we'll be able to easily go through and make that many more connections between these mafia, and get more answers than we had before?

 

We still have a healer. I'm hoping they are following the game. I'm fairly sure they are. I'm also fairly sure that since they've managed this long, they will know what they are doing. If you don't give us the name, you are most likely going to be NK'd tonight, because  the mafia will be able to keep that name from us until that other person is dead, and then when day comes and there are two deaths, we aren't going to know who did what or why. Can you not understand this?

 

Lily, I'm doing homework right now, if I get a chance tonight I will work on it, but I will be honest with you and tell you that I've got Daetirion, Hybrid, and Lia lined up before you. I always case the quiet ones first.  :)

[Guest dragonsworn1991]

Then case me please :D

[Far Dareis Mai]

If you are referring to Pale's trio of fail, yes. Even if he takes the bullet for one of his target's, he can't save them both, unless I misunderstood the explanation of his role.

[Kivam]

You actually followed my train of thought that time.  :D

 

And what if the second person is of = importance as Barm? Who do we sacrifice, our delayed vig or two roles that are of equal importance?

 

The only role of equal importance would be me (since we both stop serial killers).  We'll cross that bridge when we come to it.

[Far Dareis Mai]

Are you quieter than Dae, Lia, and Hybrid? No. You shall wait. Besides, I'm on EST and I've got two more pieces of Art to push out before bed. I'm goign to do that right now. :P

[Far Dareis Mai]

And because I'm on a roll, I'm going to just predict that he actually targeted you Kivam, and he knows he's in deep crap. What would be the odds that he would target both SK healers? :P

[Guest dragonsworn1991]

I was thinking the same thing Far and you beat me to it.

 

And I will wait, and good luck on your homework.

[WWWwombat]

And because I'm on a roll, I'm going to just predict that he actually targeted you Kivam, and he knows he's in deep crap. What would be the odds that he would target both SK healers? :P

 

-_-

[Kivam]

I was thinking the same thing Far and you beat me to it.

 

And I will wait, and good luck on your homework.

 

Wait, now you believe my role claim?

[Guest dragonsworn1991]

Nope kiv, if I did I wouldn't have my vote on you.

 

But I was just saying on the off chance you are telling the truth, then that would be ironic, for Pale to target you also.

[cosmicpanda]

I owe this game more attention and a re-read. The whole Pale situation looks promising

[Far Dareis Mai]

Alright, before I post my first case, let me explain how I do this, so I don't get a bunch of questions afterward. If you ask me stupid questions, then I'm going to refer you to this post, and mock you forever. ;)

 

When I put together a case for someone, I don't put it together to make a person look innocent or evil. I merely bring together all of a person's relevant game related posts (and on rare occasions not game related), and allow you folks to read through them all yourselves, and come to your own conclusions. Often times when you get to see their posts in one large chunk, things start to pop out at you that you may have missed before.

 

So I reiterate. I will not say in my case anywhere whether I think a person is innocent or evil. I do not intentionally try to set someone up as innocent or evil in this case. All posts quoted are in chronological order, so I'm not jumbling things around to make it seem like a person said something they didn't, or in reference to something else.  I expect you to form your own opinions based on the information provided. The cases will all be huge walls of text. Can't do much about it though.

 

When I do form an opinion about my thought regarding their innocence or guilt, I will always make a separate post, so that I don't color the information one way or the other.

 

Saavy?

[Kivam]

Alright, before I post my first case, let me explain how I do this, so I don't get a bunch of questions afterward. If you ask me stupid questions, then I'm going to refer you to this post, and mock you forever. ;)

 

When I put together a case for someone, I don't put it together to make a person look innocent or evil. I merely bring together all of a person's relevant game related posts (and on rare occasions not game related), and allow you folks to read through them all yourselves, and come to your own conclusions. Often times when you get to see their posts in one large chunk, things start to pop out at you that you may have missed before.

 

So I reiterate. I will not say in my case anywhere whether I think a person is innocent or evil. I do not intentionally try to set someone up as innocent or evil in this case. All posts quoted are in chronological order, so I'm not jumbling things around to make it seem like a person said something they didn't, or in reference to something else.  I expect you to form your own opinions based on the information provided. The cases will all be huge walls of text. Can't do much about it though.

 

When I do form an opinion about my thought regarding their innocence or guilt, I will always make a separate post, so that I don't color the information one way or the other.

 

Saavy?

 

I get everything except the way you chose to spell "savvy"  ;D

[Far Dareis Mai]

Casing Daetirion!

 

Alright, Daetirion's very first post of the entire game was this:

Ok, i am a fool. A fool to think that a game with these player's was EVER going to be a nice quiet reentry into the world of Mafia.

 

Specifically Barm - 3rd or so post in the thread and he starts; his post had me alternately laughing and crying a little inside. You're up to something without a doubt - and disguising what ever it is well. You have power i just can't work out whether you're using it for good or evil :P

 

[glow=red,2,300]FDM[/glow] as per finder request. My radar may be off but its the most suspicious thing i've seen so far.

 

Also, well done for the trips down memory lane. I hated getting drawn as number 8 in a Loki game >.>

He barrels out of the cannon throwing fire. It's less pleasant because it's at me, but ya know...he follows up his post with his reasoning:

Barm is up to something i just don't know what. I honestly think he has come out all guns blazing to cover something, but it could just as easily (and in some ways more logically) be a powerful town role. I may be off but i will be very surprised if Barm is something innocuous like, say, the Tree stump.

 

Didn't see any reason for FDM to request someone "find" her - double bluff is my gut feeling, but heck this is day 1 so no knowledge for sure.

 

Oh and the one role that jumps out to me from your list Alys is Traitor - given the nature of the game, it seems a purpose built role. So i'd be a little suspicious of anyone you are allowed to communicate off thread with.

 

(ok just seen 3 posts above - see Double Bluff. FDM really wants to get to night alive, may be true re. innocence, or maybe presuming the finder won't check on her for precisely the reason she volunteered. What's more, the comment remains logged in the memory and we presume however subconciously that she has been found. I may have attempted to use it before)

Third post is asking for what OMGUS means..

Fourth post is thanking Nae for explaining...

Fifth post: Barm is dumb.

Does that mean I'm cleared? Cause I'm pretty sure I haven't been quiet this game.

 

Hehe. Even one so slow as you Barmy may have realised we'd picked up on the "quiet as mafia" thing by now and exploit it to your own gains.

 

 

Then again, maybe not :P

 

Sixth post: 24 hour LOA

<takes a private moment on page 21 to revel in the fact that I've been really active this game. This pleases me!>

Seventh post : Mass reveal bad, going to keep my vote on FDM even though she doesn't 'seem' evil, but if people want to target the inactives, I'm up for that too.

Thoughts on mass role reveal.

 

Normally, with normal roles, i'd say it might work. However there are still a load of very powerful roles out there.

 

Hypothetical situation : cop gets revealed/reveals himself. Doc doesn't. Doc has to protect Cop. However rather than NKing, role blocker blocks cop, Mafia NK elsewhere, we enter the next day with the most powerful innocent actions having been useless during that night phase.

 

And thats a real basic situation. The only successful mass reveals i've seen have been in the last two days of games. Admittedly, i don't see them cropping up much, but still, to my mind a mass reveal would be a bad idea.

 

Kiv, as proposer... ok it's suspicious. However given the nature of the game, he may well just be going for points. Definitely something to remember for the next few days, but not quite enough to flip me over to get rid of him. Admittedly, half of me just wants to see what scheme he comes up with next, but if he is innocent, he could really turn this around.

 

On a totally different topic, my votes staying on FDM for now. Yeah, she aint screaming "mafia" atm, but a) can't see too much in the way of alternative and b) she's not screaming "innocent" either. Only thing i am considering is switching my vote to a lurker/inactive, if there is any support out there for that idea.

 

Aaaand that's the end of that stream-of-conciousness post. Sorry for wall of text.

 

Changes vote to Reyoru.

Ok, the Nae vote has all the appearance of a bandwagon. Developed far too quickly

 

Yes, she's acting defensively (but then, she was accused). However, she's not a player to fall apart if someone throws an accusation against her. Whoever it was that mentioned this may be WIFOM, there is a chance this is intentional but i would doubt it. Far too likely to back fire.

 

Panda's obviously gone on the offensive here; the question is, genuine belief or just trying to stir the pot and get day 1 over with? Or, is it team play with those that originally kicked off the whole thing... Reyoru?

 

I reckon the offensive on Nae looked like stalling, and then Panda jumps in to kick it up again. Similarly, the only person in favour of the mass reveal (besides Kiv) was Panda.

 

At the moment, i'm willing to accept Kiv's overwork excuse - tbh i know the feeling. However i will throw out the idea of a Kivam/CosmicPanda/Reyoru team out there. As Panda has claimed a role that may well be innocent, i'm quite hesitant to vote there, despite suspicions. Similarly, i've already stated i want Kiv staying for a bit. Therefore, that leaves [glow=red,2,300]unvote FDM[/glow], vote [glow=red,2,300]Reyoru [/glow]

Then we get the "Oh hmm..geee...I'd really hate to, because I don't really think he's innocent, but I'm sick of Day 1 already and we need to lynch someone. Let's lynch Kivam!"

Ok small suggestion folks... we're getting to 36 pages on day 1 here. Honestly, a lot of this is becoming pure guesswork - we have had no night actions. Part of me just wants consensus here so we actually have some results, and can then tie in what folks have said today with what we've got left.

 

Whilst i do not excessively want to lynch Kivam, i feel it may be an idea, as seeing most people are suspicious of Kivam + another. In the interest of getting some kind of consensus, i'm switching to him. He's made enough mistakes to legitimise the suspicions levelled against him, and although i'd be willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, i honestly think we have had enough debate and need action.

 

Something tells me we'll be getting a deadline shortly. We can't stay on day 1 here forever. So whilst this is not either ideal or personal, unvote and vote Kivam

Here he defends his vote by stating that the day is too long and well, someone has to  die. Since he has not really given us any sort of theories of his own, he's just going to pick the person that the most people are voting for atm.

Kiv, its the weekend. I certainly wasn't trying to push through whilst you were otherwise occupied. And in many ways, i'd much rather have you left in it. But this is getting ridiculous for day 1... 10 posts per page, 36 pages - 360 posts on no real evidence and flimsy theories?

Another post saying Day 1 is taking too long.

Total lack of patience is something i am not often criticised for. However i am fast becoming disillusioned with this. Hence the vote. Were this day 5 or 6 and close to the end, i'd never push for speedy action, but for day 1 i honestly think we've done enough.

Ah! Some meat!

Sorry it was a somewhat hurried response at both. Been at the GF's all weekend and snatched net access when i could.

 

Answer to all 3 is, yes, that action was suspicious and i will keep it in mind (as should everyone). Admittedly i believe Nae/Barm thing was a storm in a teacup, but that may just be due to the fact i'm used to their posting styles. However Barm's aggressive opening and Nae's enthusiastic self defence are both reasons for suspicion, regardless of that incident.

 

Ultimately Kiv, you can add to your list of three Pandy's relatively unprompted reveal and your strategy since the start. It's all useful information, but a little hard to place on the mental map so early in. The primary reason for pushing a vote on you Kiv, was that at the time you had the most votes, and the vast majority of players were suspicious of "Kivam and ????" with the ??? being anyone from DS through to Pandy. Honestly, i think the top three possibilities for a lynch from general opinion were you, Pandy and Nae. A vote on Pandy is highly unlikely to go through today due to his reveal, and there was a split between those for and those against Nae that i thought would be difficult to overcome.

 

Which realistically leaves you as the most likely to be lynched. Ultimately, i placed myself in the position that had a deadline been set, what would my logic have been. We shall see if that is followed when the dead line is announced.

 

Essentially, im echoing FDM's statement. Enough is enough, we have evidence we can match to the results of night 1, lets get this done.

 

(ps any chance of a vote count DPR?)

 

Next post is that he's drunk.

Another drunk post.

His vote on Rey, and his reasonings for it.

I've bolded the important part of this post, as i'm sure you'll all agree.

 

First, the Unvote.

 

Next, my suspicions list :- Nae, Barm, Lavinya, Rey, Ed, Pandy. Going by Barm's logic, Nae Lavinya or Rey are up. I've still got the underlying feeling Nae is genuine for the most part, and as such, will not be voting for her tonight.

 

Which leaves Lavinya or Rey. The vote on Rey has momentum, the role revealed is easily questionable, and overall behaviour has been a little off. I had suspicions preReveal, although those were partially concerned with links to Kivam (and he is tentatively off the hook for now).

 

So yeah, Rey it is.

Next post joke fail.

In his next post he further convinces himself that voting on Rey was the right vote.

Whilst your hinting on roles is intriguing, can i just say i agree with the rest of this?

Have actually had (sober) time on my hands and read through the last 20 odd pages and so much of Reyoru's actions just seem illogical, out of the blue and utterly unhelpful.

 

Remember the odd accusation against Barm/Nae? Admittedly Nae's defensive reaction is very very scummish, but the accusation was a little out of the blue, and hardly backed up.

 

Similarly the role... too easy in many ways to hide behind, and whilst slightly numerically useful...

 

TL;DR Reread and now even more convinced that Reyoru is not innocent

Next post is Dae telling Reyoru the many reasons he is guilty (pg. 61)

Next post continues to talk about why he is right.

And onto a new topic:

I should never reread.

 

Doubt is creeping into my original hypothesis.

 

The Poisoner. Think about it.

Next post is not game related.

Ugh, next post starts the "Daet's tender feelings are hurt" chain of events.

Really struggling to keep my cool atm

 

Yes i may have missed the obvious but please don't insult my intelligence when i've been away after so long

 

It's hardly encouraging me to stay

Few days later (irl time), he posts:

Calmed down but 20 pages to read through.

 

Going to take some time

And that is the last time we heard from him. That was on February 6th. Looking at his profile, he logged on Feb. 10, the didn't make any posts on the forums (that we could see).

So it has been 4 RL days that he has not been posting. Either he is lurking, he is on LOA, or he's just not checking up on the game. I am sending a pm now to DPR asking him if he will please notify us of LOA's.

 

[Far Dareis Mai]

I was emphasizing the 'a' ala' Captain Jack Sparrow. Saaavy?  :P

[Guest dragonsworn1991]

I was just noticing that Tynaal was either killed by the SK or the Psycho. In DPR's OP she was torn apart, ad everyone else was either killed or lynched.