The One Power (Full Book Spoilers)--No Balefire!

[ShenAnCalhar]

What if it's actually 1/10,000 of the 1% that can channel that are Wilders?  1/10 is an arbitrary figure.

[Bob T Dwarf]

From the glossary of LoC:

wilder: A woman who has learned to channel the One power on her own; only one in four survive this.  Such women usually build barriers against knowing what it is they are doing, but if these can be broken down, wilders are among the most powerful of channelers.  The term is often used in derogatory fashion.

 

Seems pretty clear that the term 'wilder' is used for sparkers.  

 

OK.  But so what?  According to you and others, the Tower doesn't recruit, so the only girls it gets are Wilders.

 

Now, what's your estimate for how many girls in Tar Valon, where there are Healers readily available just down the street, actually end up succumbing to channeling sickness?  Still 3 out of 4?

 

That still leaves 6 girls per year, just from Tar Valon, who are sparkers, have survived channeling sickness, and should readily be admitted to the Tower.

 

And, reducing the 500 in all of Randland by that same 75% that still leaves 125 sparkers per year who survive.

 

Have we met even one Aes Sedai who is identified as a native of Tar Valon?  I can't recall any.  We have Illianers, Taraboners, Sea Folk, Saldaeans, Kandorans, Cairheinen, Andorans, Tairens ( where channeling is frowned on ), and even women from Far Madding ( where channeling is forbidden ) and more places besides.  They all had to have sparked since the Tower doesn't go recruiting.  They all survived to make it to the Tower.  How come nobody from Tar Valon does?

 

7 per year is simply too few.  And even then, half of those supposedly washout or run away.

 

The Aes Sedai numbers are simply far from what they should be for a subcontinent with a population large enough to support the armies they have.

What if it's actually 1/10,000 of the 1% that can channel that are Wilders?  1/10 is an arbitrary figure.

 

So is 1/10,000.  If you want you can make the number as ridiculously small as you need to to get the number accepted and the population presumed to line up.  That's no more realistic than making 50% of all women channelers.  Neither ridiculous extreme works.  Nor does any reasonable estimate.

 

 

[Swigaro]

 

OK.  But so what?  According to you and others, the Tower doesn't recruit, so the only girls it gets are Wilders.

 

 

According to he, others and the text of the books we are discussing, the tower doesn't recruit.

 

The tower only gets wilders, plus a small percentage of the much larger group of learners that have the will, and means to see themselves tested.

 

Again, as we do not know, nor have any means to even guess what the percentage of the 1% of Randlanders able to channel are sparkes, all the numbers and maths are rather meaningless. 

 

If we knew how many "Wilders" there are among AS, that would be a start.  As the term is used in a deragatory manor, I would say there aren't too many.

[Swigaro]

Sorry for the double post...  Was trying to edit...

 

 

OK.  But so what?  According to you and others, the Tower doesn't recruit, so the only girls it gets are Wilders.

 

 

According to he, others and the text of the books we are discussing, the tower doesn't recruit.

 

The tower only gets wilders, plus a small percentage of the much larger group of learners that have the will, and means to see themselves tested.

 

Again, as we do not know, nor have any means to even guess what the percentage of the 1% of Randlanders able to channel are sparkes, all the numbers and maths are rather meaningless.  

 

If we knew how many "Wilders" there are among AS, that would be a start.  As the term is used in a deragatory manor, I would say there aren't too many.

 

 

The Aes Sedai numbers are simply far from what they should be for a subcontinent with a population large enough to support the armies they have.

 

 

On this point, I agree with you with one minor correction.  The Aes Sedai numbers are simply far from what they could be if they actually went out and recruited for learners like every other body of channelers we have seen.

[ShiftedInsights]

   Bob, the Tar Valon point is one I come into the most agreement with you on. The Two Rivers is an outlier to the mean due to the old blood raising the percentage of potential channelers. Tar Valon should be an outlier of results while its population should have the same distribution as the rest of (non Two Rivers) Randland.

  They should catch close to 100% of sparker's, but due to the passive recruitment bit, even with distance and cost of travel factored out, any of the learners would still have to ask a sister to check them and while the population of Tar Valon are more comfortable with the Power than most, they still seem to do their best to keep out of Aei Sedai business and just enjoy the safety the city brings.  

  The only mitigating factors I can see thus far is that first of all Tar Valon is not the capital of a country,  and most of its citizens seem to be immigrants from other parts of the world, or their descendants, there is never a mention of any distinctly Tar Valonian culture outside of the sisters, which is why we never hear of them.  Also, Suian was the only sister to build an intel network inside the city proper, so that points to the idea that the sisters pay very little attention to the comings and goings of the common people in Tar Valon; the Tower Guard keeps order but that is about it, the sisters aren't co mingling with the citizens of the city, just as they aren't co mingling with anyone else anywhere.

  While we do know that there are far less sparkers than learners, the ratio there is still up for interpretation, and that is where the point of contention really lies.  We know about 1% of the total population has the ability in one way or another, but out of that 1% we do not know if the spark:learner ratio  is 1:10 or 1:500 or somewhere in between, if its 1:10 or 1:50 or something like that then you would have a very strong point on this piece of your argument, there should be more sparkers found in Tar Valon than the total number of novices per year suggests.  If the ratio is 1:500 or 1:1000 then it has the potential to be so statistically insignificant to the total number of novices they take in yearly as to barely matter.  The only real source we have for this ratio is the Black Tower's statistics, in which they found one sparker among all of their recruits so far, with the addition of Rand, Taim, Logain, Thom's nephew, and a very few other False Dragons, but since the Black Tower criteria and selection/recruitment methods are so drastically different than the tower, they are BOUND to find a great deal more learners than the White Tower would, and that makes them very difficult to use for the purpose of modeling this ratio, well that, and it could be that the ratio of sparkers:learners is different for the females than the males.  I hope I have in some way helped advance this dialogue :)

[zxg15]

Shifted Lights - everything you mentioned is true.  That doesn't change the numbers.

 

Even without recruiting, there would still be 25 sparkers per year at 1/10th of 1% of the female population of Tar Valon, for whom a trip to the Tower would be a walk down the street.  25 girls every year, just from Tar Valon.

 

ComicCon July 2004 - Jason Denzel reporting

 

A question was asked about whether or not a non-channeler could go and become Enlightened through meditation and be able to sense the True Source, or even channel it.

RJ replied that there were indeed people in his world that sought Enlightenment in such ways, but no, that channeling was related to genetics. He went onto say that he estimates that the Age of Legends had about 2-3% of the population able to channel in one way or another, while in the modern world that number is down to about 1-2%.

[update: Robert Jordan sent me an email correcting this statement]:

RJ:  I went back to look at the article again and check something I thought I recalled. If I said the current population has about 1% to 2% who can learn to channel, then I misspoke, because I have set that figure at about 1%.

 

I've made what are by any measure reasonable estimates based entirely on that 1% figure.  I've even skewed things so that only 1 in 10 of that 1% might be sparkers, and still the numbers don't add up properly.  There should be far more Aes Sedai than there are given even a halfway realistic population estimate for the whole subcontinent, and excluding the Sea Folk and Aiel entirely.

 

 

What if it's actually 1/10,000 of the 1% that can channel that are Wilders?  1/10 is an arbitrary figure.

 

So is 1/10,000.  If you want you can make the number as ridiculously small as you need to to get the number accepted and the population presumed to line up.  That's no more realistic than making 50% of all women channelers.  Neither ridiculous extreme works.  Nor does any reasonable estimate.

 

 

 

 

From RJ's blog

 

For over 3000 years, though, Aes Sedai have been removing men who actually learned to channel from the gene pool.  They have been very efficient at this.  As a result, the “present day” sees about 1% of the population who can learn to channel, with a much, much smaller percentage of that being born with the spark.

 

 

clearly 1/10,000 is a much better estimate of the sparker / learner ratio than 1/10

 

RJ's quote still leaves a large range probably 1/1000 - 1/10,000 but the number is clearly not 1/10

[Arath Faringal]

OK.  But so what?  According to you and others, the Tower doesn't recruit, so the only girls it gets are Wilders.

 

Ummm ... I believe my entire point was to prove that the majority of Aes Sedai are NOT wilders.  To prove that learners are much more common than sparkers.  Yes, the sparker to learner ratio among the Aes Sedai will probably be a fair bit higher than the same ratio in the world at large, but learners still have to be the vast majority.  But interpret things as you will.  You seem to enjoy that.

 

Now, what's your estimate for how many girls in Tar Valon, where there are Healers readily available just down the street, actually end up succumbing to channeling sickness?  Still 3 out of 4?

 

Ah, now this is where you need to have an understanding of the channeling sickness.  Lets return to the books, shall we?

 

The Eye of the World, Chapter 21

"A week later I fell on the floor in her sitting room, shaking and burning up by turns.  She bundled me into bed, but by suppertime it was gone."

 

A couple hours of fever and chills ... hardly something to worry the Aes Sedai about, especially when they potentially have to deal with half a million sick people every cold/flu season.  But let's continue.

 

"The fever and chills I had couldn't kill anyone," Nynaeve insisted.  "Not in three or four hours.  I had the other things too, and they couldn't kill anybody, either.  And they stopped after a few months.  What about that?"

 

"Those were only reactions," Moiraine said patiently.  "Each time the reacction comes closer to the actual touching of the Source, until the two happen almost together.  After that there are no more reactinos that can be seen, but it is as if a clock has begun ticking.  A year.  Two years.  I know one woman who lasted five years.  Of four who have the inborn ability that you and Egwene have, three die if we do not find them and train them.  It is not as horrible a death as the men die, but neither is it pretty, if any death can be called so.  Convulsions.  Screaming.  It takes days, and once it begins, there is nothing that can be done to stop it, not by all the Aes Sedai in Tar Valon together."

 

Soooo ... it would appear that the 'reaction sickness' isn't so bad that Aes Sedai healers are called in.  And the final sickness can't be stopped by a full circle of yellows wielding the CK.  I'll give you that a wilder is much more likely to be found in Tar Valon, but it would still just be happenstance.  An Aes Sedai would have to walk within a few yards of the girl to recognize the spark.  And then of course that girl must still be within the acceptable age range for a novice.  Maybe a little better than 3/4 ... but not much.

 

That still leaves 6 girls per year, just from Tar Valon, who are sparkers, have survived channeling sickness, and should readily be admitted to the Tower.

 

And, reducing the 500 in all of Randland by that same 75% that still leaves 125 sparkers per year who survive.

 

Have we met even one Aes Sedai who is identified as a native of Tar Valon?  I can't recall any.  We have Illianers, Taraboners, Sea Folk, Saldaeans, Kandorans, Cairheinen, Andorans, Tairens ( where channeling is frowned on ), and even women from Far Madding ( where channeling is forbidden ) and more places besides.  They all had to have sparked since the Tower doesn't go recruiting.  They all survived to make it to the Tower.  How come nobody from Tar Valon does?

 

7 per year is simply too few.  And even then, half of those supposedly washout or run away.

 

The Aes Sedai numbers are simply far from what they should be for a subcontinent with a population large enough to support the armies they have.

 

Why does the population of Tar Valon have to have the same density of channelers as the rest of the world?  The Two Rivers shows us that although 1% of the world population can channel, that density is not consistant in every region of the world.  If I had to venture a guess, I would say that the general population of Tar Valon has far fewer channelers per capita than any other place in the world.

 

Think about it.  The Two Rivers has stood virtually untouched by the White Tower since the fall of Manetheran.  Learners have been breeding in their big country families, spreading the channeling genes around.  In the fairly small area, inbreeding over a millenia results in a disproportionate channeler population.

 

On the other hand, the White Tower has stood at the center of Tar Valon for the better part of 3000 years.  Red sisters have been culling the male channelers the entire time, the majority of which die soon after gentling.  At the same time, they've probably pulled every single female channeler they could from the city, effectively removing them from the gene pool as well.  On top of that, anyone put out of the Tower leaves the island entirely, most of them being caught up by the Kin.  After three millenia of weeding the channelers out of Tar Valon, there are probably very few Aes Sedai that come from there now.

 

 

[zxg15]

 

That still leaves 6 girls per year, just from Tar Valon, who are sparkers, have survived channeling sickness, and should readily be admitted to the Tower.

 

And, reducing the 500 in all of Randland by that same 75% that still leaves 125 sparkers per year who survive.

 

Have we met even one Aes Sedai who is identified as a native of Tar Valon?  I can't recall any.  We have Illianers, Taraboners, Sea Folk, Saldaeans, Kandorans, Cairheinen, Andorans, Tairens ( where channeling is frowned on ), and even women from Far Madding ( where channeling is forbidden ) and more places besides.  They all had to have sparked since the Tower doesn't go recruiting.  They all survived to make it to the Tower.  How come nobody from Tar Valon does?

 

7 per year is simply too few.  And even then, half of those supposedly washout or run away.

 

The Aes Sedai numbers are simply far from what they should be for a subcontinent with a population large enough to support the armies they have.

 

Why does the population of Tar Valon have to have the same density of channelers as the rest of the world?  The Two Rivers shows us that although 1% of the world population can channel, that density is not consistant in every region of the world.  If I had to venture a guess, I would say that the general population of Tar Valon has far fewer channelers per capita than any other place in the world.

 

Think about it.  The Two Rivers has stood virtually untouched by the White Tower since the fall of Manetheran.  Learners have been breeding in their big country families, spreading the channeling genes around.  In the fairly small area, inbreeding over a millenia results in a disproportionate channeler population.

 

On the other hand, the White Tower has stood at the center of Tar Valon for the better part of 3000 years.  Red sisters have been culling the male channelers the entire time, the majority of which die soon after gentling.  At the same time, they've probably pulled every single female channeler they could from the city, effectively removing them from the gene pool as well.  On top of that, anyone put out of the Tower leaves the island entirely, most of them being caught up by the Kin.  After three millenia of weeding the channelers out of Tar Valon, there are probably very few Aes Sedai that come from there now.

 

 

That is a very good point

[JehanSedai]

I really do wonder sometimes if people read the same series that I do.  I don't comprehend this stubborn insistence that the numbers don't add up, when clearly they do.  Arath, thank you for the very clear explanation of why you don't see a high concentration out of Tar Valon, that makes perfect sense.

 

Now, as for wilders.  Take the case of Nynaeve.  If she had not decided to follow after Moiraine to keep her people safe, as she saw it, she would never have come to the Tower for training.  Why is that?  Clearly Moiraine, an Aes Sedai, was there to see a wilder and know her for what she was.

 

Simple: she was one of the one-out-of-four girls who survived being a wilder.  And she had shown no desire to go to the Tower.  And, oh yes, she was too old.  She's a wilder, out in the world, but the Tower has no interest in her.

 

The Tower only takes in two types of girls, and the one type is exceedingly rare.  You have girls who come to the Tower, hoping to become Aes Sedai.  And you have girls discovered by an Aes Sedai before they become a statistic: wilders who might still become one of those three-out-of-four.

 

 

 

But forget all of this for a moment.  What is this discussion even doing here...?  Why isn't this being debated out on the open forum, instead of taking up page after page after page of what should be concepts of the One Power [which this is] from The Gathering Storm [which this is not].  I read through this whole thread hoping to find something TGS to discuss, but it was oh so very quickly swallowed up by off topic debates.  Can we please go back to having a TGS One Power thread?

[Bob T Dwarf]

 

Why does the population of Tar Valon have to have the same density of channelers as the rest of the world?  The Two Rivers shows us that although 1% of the world population can channel, that density is not consistant in every region of the world.  If I had to venture a guess, I would say that the general population of Tar Valon has far fewer channelers per capita than any other place in the world.

 

Think about it.  The Two Rivers has stood virtually untouched by the White Tower since the fall of Manetheran.  Learners have been breeding in their big country families, spreading the channeling genes around.  In the fairly small area, inbreeding over a millenia results in a disproportionate channeler population.

 

On the other hand, the White Tower has stood at the center of Tar Valon for the better part of 3000 years.  Red sisters have been culling the male channelers the entire time, the majority of which die soon after gentling.  At the same time, they've probably pulled every single female channeler they could from the city, effectively removing them from the gene pool as well.  On top of that, anyone put out of the Tower leaves the island entirely, most of them being caught up by the Kin.  After three millenia of weeding the channelers out of Tar Valon, there are probably very few Aes Sedai that come from there now.

 

You assume that no families die out.  That nobody ever leaves.  That no new people move in.  That somehow everyone who lives in Tar Valon has had the channeling gene bred out of them.

 

Where do we find any evidence for that?

 

Tar Valon is the New York or London or Paris or Beijing or Rio or Brisbane of that world.  It's far more logical that people move in and out all the time.  Some people adapt just fine to life in the big city others don't.  Those that don't move elsewhere.  New people who want a taste of the bright lights move in.  They bring their genes with them when they do.

 

There's absolutely no reason to expect that Tar Valon would have any different distribution of channelers than the average for Randland as a whole.

[Nightstrike]

Ok Nightstrike, thats like the fifth time you reposted your previous posts. We read them the first time. Please don't do it again. Also please make singular posts. If you later come up with a new thought modify your post to add the new thought. The latter is not a huge deal, just keeping these already huge threads in a somewhat decent postcount.

No, not the fifth. I can't come up with anything new, but the things I posted are the only things we need to know. You're clearly repeated yourself as well. Without even given any real evidence while doing it. "Please don't do it again."

 

 

Never? You mean like this following comment in which he states the size of cities and their numbers?

 

From Thirteenth Depository (previously from the Wotmania compilation).

Yes, never. He never mentioned the population size. He mentioned three large cities. You're jumping to conclusions. Even if your assumptions were right, then we still don't know enough to do the calculations you're trying to do. We do not know enough. That's why I'm repeating myself, just as you are repeating yourself.

 

Say instead of 25 million, 20 as the absolute lower limit of the population in the Westlands.

Lets not say anything. It has no impact, either way. There are too many things we do not know.

 

In the past 600 years the Tower has found 4,000 or so channelers. 1,000 Aes Sedai plus 1,000 more dead due to the Oaths. 2,000 or so who didn't make the shawl.

We do not know anything like that. And even if it were true, then it would still not mean that you can disprove Egwene's statement in the books. Lets not make guesses that don't even mean anything at all.

 

 

[elec1cele]

Here's yet one more way to break it down:

 

Tar Valon has 500,000 people.  We'll ignore nearby villages.

 

Is assuming that half of them are female unreasonable?

Is assuming that 60 years would be a reasonable lifespan for a woman in a 17th century society?

Is assuming that a girl can first manifest the ability to channel somewhere between the ages of 13 and 18 unreasonable?

 

Using those figures, there should be 250,000 women and girls in TV.  10% of those should be of an age to manifest the spark.  That's 25,000.

If 1% of those really have the ability, that's 250.

If 10% of those are sparkers, making sparkers 1/10 of 1 percent ( 0.001 or one girl in 1,000 ) of the female population, that's still

 

I think the number is less than 10% of those who can learn

 

RJ has said:

For Papazen, while I have spoken of souls being born with the ability to channel in response to questions, I think of it as being genetic also.  In the Age of Legends, between 2 and 3% of people had some ability, following a bell curve distribution in strength.  For over 3000 years, though, Aes Sedai have been removing men who actually learned to channel from the gene pool.  They have been very efficient at this.  As a result, the “present day” sees about 1% of the population who can learn to channel, with a much, much smaller percentage of that being born with the spark.

 

to me he is saying the % of people born with the spark is less (much less actually) then 1% of people who can learn to channel.

 

25 girls every year, just in the city of Tar Valon who would be sparkers.

 

Something is wrong with your math here you are saying 25 girls every year yet you are covering a six year range in ages.  If the rest of the calculations are correct seems to me you would get 25 girls every six years or about 4 girls a year.  Your math would be right for a point in time comparrison but not year over year as the girls who sparked last year would already be in the tower.

 

Once again, that just the city of Tar Valon.  That includes nobody from anywhere else in Randland.

 

No matter how you try to slice it or dice it, 7 Novices per year, on average, just doesn't work.

 

 

if we adjust to 1% of learners spark (which i still think is too high) that would be 2.5 sparkers in TV every 6 years so you get one sparker from TV about once every 3 years.

[Nightstrike]

As has been pointed out several times no--there are in fact many more sul'dam than damane.

 

Renna in tGH stated it: "Many sul'dam will wear your bracelet over the years - there are

always many more sul'dam than damane"

 

Consider that in full, by the way. The damane live around five to six times as long as sul'dam, yet at any one time there a many more sul'dam than damane.

Exactly. Without a doubt, less than 10 percent are sparkers.

 

 

Excuse me? I NEVER said that 10% of channelers were sparkers.

It was me, and I was being generous. I'm a very generous guy.  ;)

 

That sparkers exist does not mean they approach the Tower. Most sparkers remain unaware of their ability. You speak of sparkers who 'should show up at the Tower'... and your right--sparkers should go to the Tower. Yet the very rarely do, and thus die from lack of training or end up wilders, too old to become Aes Sedai.

Yes! That would be my guess as well!  :)

 

That factor of ten is based on what you feel people 'should do'. They clearly are not. This was not a failure by RJ--his math is perfect. The numbers approaching, the numbers studying--they are beyond belief in the fact that they fit together.

 

People are not doing what you feel they 'should do', because RJ decided they do something different. His math on that is undeniable, however.

Correct. There's nothing wrong with RJ's math.  :)

 

[richnewton82]

.

[Jaric Mar Tedronai]

Lets break it down for the stubborn guys here. RJ said 1% of people could channel. He did not say they did, nor did he say what percentage of that number has the spark inborn. Simply, 1% could channel. That means that if we assume half the population is female, which is probably wrong, considering males had a much higher mortality rate in medieval times, 0.5% of the population can channel saidar.

 

It is a well known fact, backed up by literary evidence from the books, that the White Tower did not recruit. Therefore, anyone who asks to learn must approach them.

 

So, using luckers population of 20 million, figure that maybe 1 or 2% of the population is "nobility," or wealthy enough to make a journey of hundreds of leagues to ask to learn, and the majority of potential channelers is drastically reduced. Granted, there are times when an Aes Sedai finds a girl who has sparked, as in Siuan's case, but it is not often. Then, factor in that clearly, most girls don't actually want to learn, or even think that they can. Probably what, another 1%? 2% There goes another massive chunk of the population.  At this point, we are between 2000-8000 women who have had the desire to learn, the means to ask, and the actual ability. If roughly 60% can actually attain the shawl, that means 1200 to 4800 women. At this point, I am not seeing how RJ's or Luckers' math is so drastically off.

 

In regards to another point brought up, we see from the Seanchan that there are many times more sul'dam than damane. And yes, the empress pays to feed and clothe and shelter more sul'dam than damane, because they are what make the weapons so effective. If the throne did not, they would have a bunch of leashed women who couldn't move more than three feet, and not channel at all since no one was wearing the bracelet. Now, the Seanchan might not be the best example, because as a society, they encourage people to test to be sul'dam, therefore they find a far higher percentage than the White Tower, who does not recruit at all. Also, women are tested several times as damane, I beleive, so they don't miss any of them.

 

I think maybe people are getting a bit carried away. RJ said it, its gospel, or canon, or whatever you want to call it. 1% of the population can channel, the White Tower is too good to look for people, and as a result they might get .0000005% of the women who can channel to seek them out in any given year.

[Nightstrike]

I'm pretty sure Luckers is right.. (assuming he is arguing that RJ's math is correct.. its hard to tell anymore)

 

In Seanchan there are more learners (suldam) than sparkers (damane). This is true in Tar Valon too. There are probably 20 million or so people in randland and if 1% of the population can channel that would be about 100,000 female channelers. The tower just hasn't recruited at all. Look at what the Black Tower was able to do in mere months - it found 1,000 nearly instantly!

 

They just haven't been looking. The channelers are there to be had.

RJ's math is correct. You are also correct in that the Tower hasn't been "actively recruiting". But they must have tested girls and selected among them. Because of the evidence I provided back in the thread (it's probably lost in the mass of words by now. Maybe I'll have to repost it again, despite what Luckers want of me). Luckers is wrong in his calculations, because we don't know anything to do that kind of math.

 

All of this has been stated previously.

I know.  ;D

 

 

So you invent a comment on my behalf about something I'm not arguing and then when I call you up on it you ask me for my fanciful position on this made-up number. The fact is we don't know what percentage the sparker to learner ratio is. It's low, whatever it is. There are by a very considerable amount more learners than sparkers. The sul'dam to damane ratio inspite of damane longevity proves that.

Anything less than 10 percent speaks against you even more. That's not needed, but there you go.

 

 

Nothing. Nothing at all. My numbers work just fine, as I've shown. And whilst I don't care if you believe all that, it's nevertheless in the books. Oh not some of your more melodramatic concoctions, but the heart, which is all I'm arguing.

 

For the differentiation between the two consult my earlier posts.

You've shown no evidence at all. We have nothing to go on.

 

[Arani Lepenque Aes Sedai]

Read Lord of Chaos.  Out of the several dozen male channelers already there, even with travelling that the Asha'man can accomplish and recruit as many as they can, they only found 1 channeler with the spark inborn among all the others they found.

 

What do male channelers have to do with anything?  Until now there has never been anywhere they could go and be trained.  Nearly all of the male sparkers would have died from channeling sickness, or the taint.  Or, even just being killed by their neighbors or family.

 

Frankly it's a miracle that they found even one with the spark.

 

But remember, the Red Ajah has found about 5 men who could channel within the last 10 years.  And these men are usually sparkers.  Its not a miracle.  Its happenstance.

 

And you ask, what do male channelers have to do with anything?  Male channelers have just about everything to do with this.  The ratio of sparkers and learners is the same as female channelers.

[Nightstrike]

Interesting point there, Arani. Sparkers are extremely rare.

 

I think people overlook the fact that people in many places are hostile towards Aes Sedai. Many wouldn't wanna be associated with them in the first place. Aes Sedai were always restricted to test girls in Whitecloak country, for instance. Tear, Far Madding & other places seems a bit hostile as well. With time in a Wheel & rebirth as a fact of life, the potential of being able to live much longer than non-channelers might not be seen as a great enough advantage. At least not compared to the duties, training, tests & efforts that goes with it.

 

 

[ShiftedInsights]

Read Lord of Chaos.  Out of the several dozen male channelers already there, even with travelling that the Asha'man can accomplish and recruit as many as they can, they only found 1 channeler with the spark inborn among all the others they found.

 

What do male channelers have to do with anything?  Until now there has never been anywhere they could go and be trained.  Nearly all of the male sparkers would have died from channeling sickness, or the taint.  Or, even just being killed by their neighbors or family.

 

Frankly it's a miracle that they found even one with the spark.

 

But remember, the Red Ajah has found about 5 men who could channel within the last 10 years.  And these men are usually sparkers.  Its not a miracle.  Its happenstance.

 

And you ask, what do male channelers have to do with anything?  Male channelers have just about everything to do with this.  The ratio of sparkers and learners is the same as female channelers.

 

 

  All of the False Dragons who could channel, and all of the men that the Red Ajah have found and gentled have been born with the spark.  The only way for men w/o the spark, but with the ability, to start channeling is for a man who can already channel to do the resonance test on them that Taim knew, which will discover if they have the spark, and if the do not but can channel anyway, that very test will activate the ability in them and they will then begin to channel at some point afterwards. 

    As for the spark:learner ratio being the same for men as for women, I'm inclined to agree with you, but with the extra adverse selection pressure against innate male channelers over several thousand years, I don't rule out the possibility that the ratio could be slightly different.  It would depend on if the OP trait passes from mother to daughter and father to son, or if it is always passed down from the mother to either sexed child, I think.

[Nightstrike]

All of the False Dragons who could channel, and all of the men that the Red Ajah have found and gentled have been born with the spark.  The only way for men w/o the spark, but with the ability, to start channeling is for a man who can already channel to do the resonance test on them that Taim knew, which will discover if they have the spark, and if the do not but can channel anyway, that very test will activate the ability in them and they will then begin to channel at some point afterwards.

Yeah, but False Dragons used to be rare. The vileness affair, wasn't it about illegaly gentling 8 men? Or something like that? Very rare... 

 

 

As for the spark:learner ratio being the same for men as for women, I'm inclined to agree with you, but with the extra adverse selection pressure against innate male channelers over several thousand years, I don't rule out the possibility that the ratio could be slightly different.  It would depend on if the OP trait passes from mother to daughter and father to son, or if it is always passed down from the mother to either sexed child, I think.

If a gene is involved, we know there are many more genes on other chromosomes than there are on sex chromosomes. Male sparkers must be on the Y-chromosome, if there is any real impact on gender differencies. That seems very unlikely.

[Arani Lepenque Aes Sedai]

Alternatively, it could have nothing to do with gender, it could be on another of the 23 pairs of chromosomes.

[ShiftedInsights]

yeah but of all those 23 chromosomes, half of the pair is coming from each parent.  I'm too rusty on my genetics, but from what I can tell, if the gene came down from the mother, the culling of channeling men should have no effect on the overall strength and % of channelers born to the world.  If it comes from the father, then it most definitely would.  Thinking about it a little more, Channeling would most definitely have to be a recessive trait, so that would mean that both parents would have to have the recessive trait present genotypically if not phenotypically.  I don't know how to reckon how this trait would present differently depending on the gender of the child, or, more importantly, if the genetic trait is different for sparkers than it is for learners. 

[ShiftedInsights]

All of the False Dragons who could channel, and all of the men that the Red Ajah have found and gentled have been born with the spark.  The only way for men w/o the spark, but with the ability, to start channeling is for a man who can already channel to do the resonance test on them that Taim knew, which will discover if they have the spark, and if the do not but can channel anyway, that very test will activate the ability in them and they will then begin to channel at some point afterwards.

Yeah, but False Dragons used to be rare. The vileness affair, wasn't it about illegaly gentling 8 men? Or something like that? Very rare... 

 

 

As for the spark:learner ratio being the same for men as for women, I'm inclined to agree with you, but with the extra adverse selection pressure against innate male channelers over several thousand years, I don't rule out the possibility that the ratio could be slightly different.  It would depend on if the OP trait passes from mother to daughter and father to son, or if it is always passed down from the mother to either sexed child, I think.

If a gene is involved, we know there are many more genes on other chromosomes than there are on sex chromosomes. Male sparkers must be on the Y-chromosome, if there is any real impact on gender differencies. That seems very unlikely.

 

 

I believe the vileness had something to do with ignoring AS legal procedure for gentling men, and also with the Black Ajah assassinating Amyrlin's, I think both things were related.  From what I recall, those anomalous events together were what convinced, albeit separately, both Cadsuane and Moraine of the existence of the BA despite Tower Dogma.

[Nightstrike]

Yes, but the point is that the Red Ajah only managed to find 8 of them. During the time they were at it. It happened shortly after the Aiel War, and the 3 Red sisters were exiled 985 NE.

[ShiftedInsights]

Yeah, channelers with the inborn spark are really, really, insanely rare, no dispute on that, only on if they are as rare as a double died penny, or as rare as a purple bunny.  All of the channeling False Dragons and RA gentled men were in that insanely small group of innate spark male channelers, all of them.  There have been slightly more male spark channelers recently, but the AS seem to chalk the accelerating rate of False Dragons in the few decades before Rand came of age up to the approach of the Last Battle.  The rest of the 1% of males that had non spark channeling potential do not matter at all pre Taim/Black Tower, as no one would have ever tested and activated them.  Can we pin down a close to exact number of men with the spark for a period of say, a generation or two?  If so, we can within reason approximate the sparker:learner ratio for either gender(or at least close to it) which, based entirely on speculation and native theory, I would put at somewhere between one sparker per 500-1000 with the ability but not the spark.

 

EDIT:  I believe that Taim mentioned that one of the two or three men that he attempted to teach to channel after testing them was caught by the RA, so there might be one non spark male channeler that the Aei Sedai gentled.