The One Power (Full Book Spoilers)--No Balefire!

[WWWwombat]

17th century society.  Low average income.  Primitive transportation system.  Large expense in both time and money for an average person to travel to Tar Valon.  Logic dictates that anyone approaching the Tower for training has reason to believe they qualify.  Some actually won't, but that will likely only be 1/4 to 1/2 of the applicants.

 

That's a big assumption about success rate among applicants.

[Luckers]

17th century society.  Low average income.  Primitive transportation system.  Large expense in both time and money for an average person to travel to Tar Valon.  Logic dictates that anyone approaching the Tower for training has reason to believe they qualify.  Some actually won't, but that will likely only be 1/4 to 1/2 of the applicants.  

 

Your logic is flawed. Learners don't have things to make them have reason to believe they qualify. The poor transportation and expense are part of the reason why so few approach the Tower (your 7 a year). Remember too that 400,000 out of the hundreds of millions in the 600 year period IS a very minute number.

 

The girls who approached the Tower did so based only on desire to be Aes Sedai--they had no reason to believe they might have the ability. Nor did others have reason to think they didn't therefore forestalling their attempt. Therefore distribution of the ability is standard--one percent.

 

Sparkers may skew that, but not by a lot.

 

If the Tower actually found 4,000 over the last 600 years, that would mean that they were only approached by 6,000 applicants. An average of 10 girls per year.

 

Actually, the one percent of the population that can channel requires it be 400,000.

 

Assuming the population is evenly split between those too young to manifest and those old enough, Tar Valon alone should have 5,000 potential channelers, 2500 of whom are female, 1250 of whom are too young.  Assuming a steady birthrate.  Tar Valon should produce 78 girls each year who become old enough to successfully test for the ability to channel.

 

Yet, from all of Randland, the Tower only enrolled an average 7 girls per year for the last 600 years???

 

Yup. Seven a year sounds about right. Novice training is between five and ten years, with girls put out for being too weak early on. Note there are forty novices in the early books. 38% of channelers are too weak to gain the shawl, at five to ten years, with seven per year, and four in ten put out for weakness forty sounds about perfect.

 

Once again--the prolific number of channelers born has no influence on the number that approach the Tower for training.

 

I'll say it again.  None of the numbers add up.

 

So far they are adding up perfectly. The Aiel to Wise One numbers. The novices out of those that seek training.

[Bob T Dwarf]

Not really.

 

Siuan's father was a Tairen fisherman.  She grew up working the boats because every able body was needed just to keep the family alive.  Long, long way from Tear to Tar Valon.  Daddy isn't gonna have the scratch to take her to there unless there's a dead certainty that she can channel.  Same for almost anybody else.  Nobility presumably can afford to entertain a girl's whim that she might be able to channel even though she hasn't manifested anything.  Not the average family though.

 

As pointed out above, Tar Valon alone should produce 78 girls per year who can channel.  Over the last 600 years the tower has only enrolled an average of 7 girls per year.

 

Either there are WAY too few channelers or the population is a factor of 10 lower than it is supposed to be.

[WWWwombat]

Or you are making way too many assumptions.

[Luckers]

Siuan's father was a Tairen fisherman.  She grew up working the boats because every able body was needed just to keep the family alive.  Long, long way from Tear to Tar Valon.  Daddy isn't gonna have the scratch to take her to there unless there's a dead certainty that she can channel.  Same for almost anybody else.  Nobility presumably can afford to entertain a girl's whim that she might be able to channel even though she hasn't manifested anything.  Not the average family though.

 

Bad example. There was a dead certainty she could channel--she sparked. An Aes Sedai found her and bundled her onto a ship for Tar Valon.

 

The financial issues, as well as the danger and the social antipathy to Aes Sedai are the reasons that less than 4% of potential channelers have approached the Tower in the last 600 years.

 

But the fact of the 4% of potential channelers have approached the Tower means that 400,000 people have done so.

 

This is a massive minority. Due specifically to your reasons of finance, and my additions of danger and the simple opposing of the social fear of Aes Sedai.

 

But nevertheless, the people that approach the Tower have no basis for suspecting they may channel. Only one percent of those that do were accepted. Thus 7 per year.

 

As pointed out above, Tar Valon alone should produce 78 girls per year who can channel.  Over the last 600 years the tower has only enrolled an average of 7 girls per year.

 

Tar Valon alone DOES produce those girls. And the Tower DOES enrole only about 7 girls a year.

 

Everything you say there is true. The thing you miss is that the girls Tar Valon produces don't apply for training.

 

Either there are WAY too few channelers or the population is a factor of 10 lower than it is supposed to be.

 

There are too few channelers. Oh, they exist, but due to the Tower's incompetence they arn't active.

 

That being said the population has declined. I doubt enough to account for the limited number of girls approaching the Tower. But in the last thousand years the opinion of the general populace towards the Tower has gone south. The appearence and influence of the Whitecloaks is evident of that.

 

That change in social perception is a major cause for the decline in the Tower.

[Bob T Dwarf]

 

Your logic is flawed. Learners don't have things to make them have reason to believe they qualify. The poor transportation and expense are part of the reason why so few approach the Tower (your 7 a year). Remember too that 400,000 out of the hundreds of millions in the 600 year period IS a very minute number.

 

Sorry, but it's your logic that is flawed.  First you incorrectly assume that learners outnumber sparkers.  And, by a huge margin.  The Seanchan sul'dam/damane numbers show us that is not true.  They test every girl, and take everyone they find, yet there are always more damane than sul'dam.  More sparkers than learners.

 

The girls who approached the Tower did so based only on desire to be Aes Sedai--they had no reason to believe they might have the ability. Nor did others have reason to think they didn't therefore forestalling their attempt. Therefore distribution of the ability is standard--one percent.

 

Now you assume that every  Sally, Jane, and Mary has the money to go to Tar Valon and apply.  We've already established that they don't.  Only those families who have near certain proof that their girl can channel are going to even attempt to get her to Tar Valon and tested.  They simply can't afford the expense otherwise.

 

Yup. Seven a year sounds about right. Novice training is between five and ten years, with girls put out for being too weak early on. Note there are forty novices in the early books. 38% of channelers are too weak to gain the shawl, at five to ten years, with seven per year, and four in ten put out for weakness forty sounds about perfect.

 

IF only one in ten channelers is a sparker ( and the Seanchan give us proof that that is not the case - more than half are sparkers ) the city of Tar Valon alone would supply that 7 per year.  Look around the Tower, the AS come from everywhere.  There are even already a couple of Sea Folk before Talaan.

 

Since over half are sparkers, Tar Valon alone would be enrolling 40 such sparkers every year.  If Tar Valon actually has a population of half a million, over 600 years, that would be 24,000 sisters from that one city alone.

 

So far they are adding up perfectly. The Aiel to Wise One numbers. The novices out of those that seek training.

 

No, they don't add up at all.

[WWWwombat]

There are far more learners than sparkers.  We're talking about a ratio of learners to sparkers possibly in the hundreds here.  Not only does Renna say there are always more sul'dam than damane, but we have only heard of one sparker among the Asha'man.

[Luckers]

Sorry, but it's your logic that is flawed.  First you incorrectly assume that learners outnumber sparkers.  And, by a huge margin.  The Seanchan sul'dam/damane numbers show us that is not true.  They test every girl, and take everyone they find, yet there are always more damane than sul'dam.  More sparkers than learners.

 

You should have read the thread through from your original post. As has been pointed out several times no--there are in fact many more sul'dam than damane.

 

Renna in tGH stated it: "Many sul'dam will wear your bracelet over the years - there are

always many more sul'dam than damane"

 

Consider that in full, by the way. The damane live around five to six times as long as sul'dam, yet at any one time there a many more sul'dam than damane.

 

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The girls who approached the Tower did so based only on desire to be Aes Sedai--they had no reason to believe they might have the ability. Nor did others have reason to think they didn't therefore forestalling their attempt. Therefore distribution of the ability is standard--one percent.

 

 

Now you assume that every  Sally, Jane, and Mary has the money to go to Tar Valon and apply.  We've already established that they don't.  Only those families who have near certain proof that their girl can channel are going to even attempt to get her to Tar Valon and tested.  They simply can't afford the expense otherwise.

 

No, I don't assume anything of the sort. As I stated several times the financial reasons, not to mention the danger, of travelling to the Tower dramatically limit the number of girls that do approach.

 

This is in large part why the Tower represents at best one percent of the total number of potential channelers in the Westlands.

 

By the way there is no 'near certain proof'. There is not even 'suggestive evidence'. A girl shows no signs that indicate either way until she is tested.

 

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Yup. Seven a year sounds about right. Novice training is between five and ten years, with girls put out for being too weak early on. Note there are forty novices in the early books. 38% of channelers are too weak to gain the shawl, at five to ten years, with seven per year, and four in ten put out for weakness forty sounds about perfect.

 

IF only one in ten channelers is a sparker ( and the Seanchan give us proof that that is not the case - more than half are sparkers ) the city of Tar Valon alone would supply that 7 per year.  Look around the Tower, the AS come from everywhere.  There are even already a couple of Sea Folk before Talaan.

 

Since over half are sparkers, Tar Valon alone would be enrolling 40 such sparkers every year.  If Tar Valon actually has a population of half a million, over 600 years, that would be 24,000 sisters from that one city alone.

 

This entire point is invalidated by your thoughts on the Seanchan.

 

Quote

So far they are adding up perfectly. The Aiel to Wise One numbers. The novices out of those that seek training.

 

 

No, they don't add up at all.

 

Well, yes... actually they do. Perrin and Mat's comments about the number of algai'd'siswai and non algai'd'siswai number the Aiel at just less than a million, which the number of Wise Ones who can channel represent one percent. And seven applicants a year with four in ten being too weak to stay on and the five to ten year training period leaves us with the stated forty novices.

 

So yes--they add up rather exactly.

[Bob T Dwarf]

Or you are making way too many assumptions.

 

What assumptions would you like me to make?

 

Let's take Luckers' 20 million for a population base.  Assume that out of that there are 2 million couples of child-bearing age.  In a 17th century society where life is hard, methods are primitive, and everything is labor intensive, the birthrate would be fantastically high.  But let's go somewhat easy on these folks and say they only have one child every 3 years.

 

That's about 600,000 births per year.  Now let's be hard on these folks and assume a 50% infant mortality rate.  Net 300,000 children survive per year.  Half being female.

 

So, in all of Randland, there should be 1500 girls every year who could become channelers.

 

Now let's be really generous and take Luckers 10% of those who are sparkers.  That's still 150 girls every year who spark.  Sparkers who don't get training usually die.  Huge incentive to get all sparkers to the Tower, but let's say that half of those families don't do it anyway.  That's still 75 sparkers who should show up at the Tower every year.

 

The Tower takes in a average 7 girls each year.  That's still off by a factor of 10.

[Luckers]

Now let's be really generous and take Luckers 10% of those who are sparkers.  

 

Excuse me? I NEVER said that 10% of channelers were sparkers.

 

who don't get training usually die.  Huge incentive to get all sparkers to the Tower, but let's say that half of those families don't do it anyway.  That's still 75 sparkers who should show up at the Tower every year.

 

This point, based on a falsity though it is, is nevertheless wrong. That sparkers exist does not mean they approach the Tower. Most sparkers remain unaware of their ability. You speak of sparkers who 'should show up at the Tower'... and your right--sparkers should go to the Tower. Yet the very rarely do, and thus die from lack of training or end up wilders, too old to become Aes Sedai.

 

The Tower takes in a average 7 girls each year.  That's still off by a factor of 10.

 

That factor of ten is based on what you feel people 'should do'. They clearly are not. This was not a failure by RJ--his math is perfect. The numbers approaching, the numbers studying--they are beyond belief in the fact that they fit together.

 

People are not doing what you feel they 'should do', because RJ decided they do something different. His math on that is undeniable, however.

 

 

By the way, not even the slightest appology for your absolutist dismissal based on your incorrect thought that there were more sul'dam than damane despite repeated attempts to inform you otherwise? Or about your claims of my assumptions about financial situations? Or your claim that the numbers I offered not fitting when they very precisely do?

 

 

[Arani Lepenque Aes Sedai]

 

Your logic is flawed. Learners don't have things to make them have reason to believe they qualify. The poor transportation and expense are part of the reason why so few approach the Tower (your 7 a year). Remember too that 400,000 out of the hundreds of millions in the 600 year period IS a very minute number.

 

Sorry, but it's your logic that is flawed.  First you incorrectly assume that learners outnumber sparkers.  And, by a huge margin.  The Seanchan sul'dam/damane numbers show us that is not true.  They test every girl, and take everyone they find, yet there are always more damane than sul'dam.  More sparkers than learners.

 

The girls who approached the Tower did so based only on desire to be Aes Sedai--they had no reason to believe they might have the ability. Nor did others have reason to think they didn't therefore forestalling their attempt. Therefore distribution of the ability is standard--one percent.

 

Now you assume that every  Sally, Jane, and Mary has the money to go to Tar Valon and apply.  We've already established that they don't.  Only those families who have near certain proof that their girl can channel are going to even attempt to get her to Tar Valon and tested.  They simply can't afford the expense otherwise.

 

Yup. Seven a year sounds about right. Novice training is between five and ten years, with girls put out for being too weak early on. Note there are forty novices in the early books. 38% of channelers are too weak to gain the shawl, at five to ten years, with seven per year, and four in ten put out for weakness forty sounds about perfect.

 

IF only one in ten channelers is a sparker ( and the Seanchan give us proof that that is not the case - more than half are sparkers ) the city of Tar Valon alone would supply that 7 per year.  Look around the Tower, the AS come from everywhere.  There are even already a couple of Sea Folk before Talaan.

 

Since over half are sparkers, Tar Valon alone would be enrolling 40 such sparkers every year.  If Tar Valon actually has a population of half a million, over 600 years, that would be 24,000 sisters from that one city alone.

 

So far they are adding up perfectly. The Aiel to Wise One numbers. The novices out of those that seek training.

 

No, they don't add up at all.

 

Have you been reading the same Wheel of Time series my dear dwarf?

 

Read the Great Hunt again.  Immediately, search for Lucker's quote

 

Read The Shadow Rising again.  Immediately, to find what Alanna says, that they need to go through untold numbers of villages to find three girls with the spark inborn.  Doesn't that mean something?

 

Read Lord of Chaos.  Out of the several dozen male channelers already there, even with travelling that the Asha'man can accomplish and recruit as many as they can, they only found 1 channeler with the spark inborn among all the others they found.

[Bob T Dwarf]

 

Well, yes... actually they do. Perrin and Mat's comments about the number of algai'd'siswai and non algai'd'siswai number the Aiel at just less than a million, which the number of Wise Ones who can channel represent one percent. And seven applicants a year with four in ten being too weak to stay on and the five to ten year training period leaves us with the stated forty novices.

 

So yes--they add up rather exactly.

 

First, according to you, the Tower doesn't go out recruiting.  Yet, somehow there is an AS handy when Siuan sparks who scoops her up and takes her to the Tower.  Verin and Alanna scoop up nearly every girl in the Two Rivers between the ages of 13 and 18.  Presumably they are all sparkers.

 

So which is it?  Do they sit back and wait for girls to come to TV, or are some of them out looking for recruits?  Are there more learners than sparkers or not?  Seems not, at least in the Two Rivers.

 

You guys want to have things all kinds of different ways.  Your assertions cannot all be right.

 

Either the Tower numbers should be 10 times what they are, or the population has to be 10 times less than you presume.

Now let's be really generous and take Luckers 10% of those who are sparkers.  

 

Excuse me? I NEVER said that 10% of channelers were sparkers.

 

OK.  What magic percentage do you need to make everything work out the way you want it to?

 

The Tower takes in a average 7 girls each year.  That's still off by a factor of 10.

 

That factor of ten is based on what you feel people 'should do'. They clearly are not. This was not a failure by RJ--his math is perfect. The numbers approaching, the numbers studying--they are beyond belief in the fact that they fit together.

 

People are not doing what you feel they 'should do', because RJ decided they do something different. His math on that is undeniable, however.

 

 

By the way, not even the slightest appology for your absolutist dismissal based on your incorrect thought that there were more sul'dam than damane despite repeated attempts to inform you otherwise? Or about your claims of my assumptions about financial situations? Or your claim that the numbers I offered not fitting when they very precisely do?

 

 

Now you want me to believe that the Empress, may she live forever, is paying to feed, house, clothe, supply, many more sul'dam than damane?  Women whose only value is to work paired with a damane?  Or, maybe the Empress, may she live forever, just has all of those surplus learners slaughtered to spare that expense?

 

How many does it take to be "many more"?  If you have 1000 damane and 1500 sul'dam, is 500 more not "many more"?  I'd say yes.  Apparently you need even more than that.  So, I'm already giving you nine learners for ever sparker, how many more than that do you want?  

 

That means that for ever 1000 damane, the Empire is supporting 8000 sul'dam who have nothing to do but stand around.  Or is it your contention that every damane has sufficient strength and stamina to tolerate being worked by nine sul'dam every day?  Channeling is hard work. They'd keel over and die like flies.  Then the empire would have an even greater surplus of sul'dam.  Their system would consume itself in weeks.

 

The Seanchan that took Falme would have brought more sul'dam than damane.  They were expecting to find women who could channel to collar.  And, once you've collared her,  you've got to be able to move her to where she can be trained.  That requires a sul'dam at the other end of the leash.  They were taking women off the street, out of the countryside, off passing ships, anywhere and everywhere.  And each time they did so, they had to have a sul'dam available to take-up her leash.

 

I'm already giving you a 50% infant mortality rate.   And, for Tar Valon, with Healers just down the street, the infant mortality rate should be nearly nil.  I'm already giving you only 1 in 10 who could channel being sparkers.  I'm already giving you no sparkers coming in from anywhere but Tar Valon itself.  I'm already giving you only 50% of the sparkers within Tar Valon itself ever making it to the Tower.  

 

And the numbers are still off by a factor of 10.

 

How much more do you need to make your numbers work?

 

 

 

 

[Bob T Dwarf]

Read Lord of Chaos.  Out of the several dozen male channelers already there, even with travelling that the Asha'man can accomplish and recruit as many as they can, they only found 1 channeler with the spark inborn among all the others they found.

 

What do male channelers have to do with anything?  Until now there has never been anywhere they could go and be trained.  Nearly all of the male sparkers would have died from channeling sickness, or the taint.  Or, even just being killed by their neighbors or family.

 

Frankly it's a miracle that they found even one with the spark.

[WWWwombat]

I believe Verin or Alanna mentions that only a few of those Two Rivers girls have the ability inborn (a number they are still excited about).

[Luckers]

First, according to you, the Tower doesn't go out recruiting.  Yet, somehow there is an AS handy when Siuan sparks who scoops her up and takes her to the Tower.  Verin and Alanna scoop up nearly every girl in the Two Rivers between the ages of 13 and 18.  Presumably they are all sparkers.

 

So which is it?  Do they sit back and wait for girls to come to TV, or are some of them out looking for recruits?  Are there more learners than sparkers or not?  Seems not, at least in the Two Rivers.

 

You guys want to have things all kinds of different ways.  Your assertions cannot all be right.

 

Indeed, the tower doesn't go out recruiting learners. Sparkers on the other hand they are quite assidious about. Siuan was picked up because she'd sparked already.

 

As for the Two Rivers situation, if you'd read the thread you'd know that this was cited to be the first active recruitment effort made, followed by the Salidar decision to recruit whilst out recruiting soldiers.

 

So in answer, yes--they sat back in TV and waited for girls to come to them. When they encountered sparkers they would push them to go to the Tower as much for the danger to both themselves and those around them as the gain for the Tower. And as of the Two Rivers situation, and the Salidar increase, they've turned back on that policy.

 

All of this has been stated previously.

 

Quote from: Luckers on Today at 07:22:50 AM

Quote

Now let's be really generous and take Luckers 10% of those who are sparkers. 

 

Excuse me? I NEVER said that 10% of channelers were sparkers.

 

 

OK.  What magic percentage do you need to make everything work out the way you want it to?

 

So you invent a comment on my behalf about something I'm not arguing and then when I call you up on it you ask me for my fanciful position on this made-up number. The fact is we don't know what percentage the sparker to learner ratio is. It's low, whatever it is. There are by a very considerable amount more learners than sparkers. The sul'dam to damane ratio inspite of damane longevity proves that.

 

Now you want me to believe that the Empress, may she live forever, is paying to feed, house, clothe, supply, many more sul'dam than damane?  Women whose only value is to work paired with a damane?  Or, maybe the Empress, may she live forever, just has all of those surplus learners slaughtered to spare that expense?

 

How many does it take to be "many more"?  If you have 1000 damane and 1500 sul'dam, is 500 more not "many more"?  I'd say yes.  Apparently you need even more than that.  So, I'm already giving you nine learners for ever sparker, how many more than that do you want? 

 

That means that for ever 1000 damane, the Empire is supporting 8000 sul'dam who have nothing to do but stand around.  Or is it your contention that every damane has sufficient strength and stamina to tolerate being worked by nine sul'dam every day?  Channeling is hard work. They'd keel over and die like flies.  Then the empire would have an even greater surplus of sul'dam.  Their system would consume itself in weeks.

 

The Seanchan that took Falme would have brought more sul'dam than damane.  They were expecting to find women who could channel to collar.  And, once you've collared her,  you've got to be able to move her to where she can be trained.  That requires a sul'dam at the other end of the leash.  They were taking women off the street, out of the countryside, off passing ships, anywhere and everywhere.  And each time they did so, they had to have a sul'dam available to take-up her leash.

 

I'm already giving you a 50% infant mortality rate.  And, for Tar Valon, with Healers just down the street, the infant mortality rate should be nearly nil.  I'm already giving you only 1 in 10 who could channel being sparkers.  I'm already giving you no sparkers coming in from anywhere but Tar Valon itself.  I'm already giving you only 50% of the sparkers within Tar Valon itself ever making it to the Tower. 

 

And the numbers are still off by a factor of 10.

 

How much more do you need to make your numbers work?

 

 

Nothing. Nothing at all. My numbers work just fine, as I've shown. And whilst I don't care if you believe all that, it's nevertheless in the books. Oh not some of your more melodramatic concoctions, but the heart, which is all I'm arguing.

 

For the differentiation between the two consult my earlier posts.

 

 

[WWWwombat]

Verin states in LoC chapter 11 in her PoV that five of the Two Rivers girls with her have the spark.  She sees this as an abnormally high number of sparkers.

[Bob T Dwarf]

Here's yet one more way to break it down:

 

Tar Valon has 500,000 people.  We'll ignore nearby villages.

 

Is assuming that half of them are female unreasonable?

Is assuming that 60 years would be a reasonable lifespan for a woman in a 17th century society?

Is assuming that a girl can first manifest the ability to channel somewhere between the ages of 13 and 18 unreasonable?

 

Using those figures, there should be 250,000 women and girls in TV.  10% of those should be of an age to manifest the spark.  That's 25,000.

If 1% of those really have the ability, that's 250.

If 10% of those are sparkers, making sparkers 1/10 of 1 percent ( 0.001 or one girl in 1,000 ) of the female population, that's still 25 girls every year, just in the city of Tar Valon who would be sparkers.

 

Once again, that just the city of Tar Valon.  That includes nobody from anywhere else in Randland.

 

No matter how you try to slice it or dice it, 7 Novices per year, on average, just doesn't work.

 

[WWWwombat]

Didn't someone already post an RJ quote in this thread saying that less than 1% of people who can channel have the spark?

[Bob T Dwarf]

In the AoL, approximately 3% of the population could channel.

 

What Jordan said was that by the Third Age, due to the accidental deaths, gentling ( which usually leads to wasting away or suicide ) and deliberate deaths of male channelers, the proportion of the population who could channel had reduced to 1%.

 

We've never gotten a hard figure on the sparker/learner breakdown.

 

As detailed above, to accommodate Luckers' insistence that the numbers have to work, I've reduced the number of sparkers to 1/10th of the 1% who can channel.  That still works out to 25 girls in Tar Valon alone every year.  For Randland, as a whole, with an assumed population of 20 million, that should work out to 500 sparkers ever year.

 

From the numbers of Aes Sedai, Kin, etc. the Tower could only be taking in 7.

 

Something is very rotten in Denmark.  ( Randland, too )

[Arath Faringal]

A question to all of you 'there are more sparkers then learners' people.

 

If it were true that sparkers outnumbered the learners, then the vast majority of Aes Sedai would have to be sparkers, correct?  As the only group that are traditionally forced into the Tower, and indeed the only ones that can be found without systematic testing, they would have to be, right?

 

Why then, do we have this terribly interesting cultural anomaly within the Aes Sedai where sparkers (aka Wilders) are looked down upon?  Why are the majority spurned by what should be a very small minority?  Wilder shouldn't be used as a contemptous term.

[Bob T Dwarf]

A question to all of you 'there are more sparkers then learners' people.

 

If it were true that sparkers outnumbered the learners, then the vast majority of Aes Sedai would have to be sparkers, correct?  As the only group that are traditionally forced into the Tower, and indeed the only ones that can be found without systematic testing, they would have to be, right?

 

Why then, do we have this terribly interesting cultural anomaly within the Aes Sedai where sparkers (aka Wilders) are looked down upon?  Why are the majority spurned by what should be a very small minority?  Wilder shouldn't be used as a contemptous term.

 

That's trying to have things both ways again.  Either 1% of the population can channel, or it can't.  Jordan said it could.

 

Further, to the Tower, a Wilder is any female channeler who doesn't come to the Tower and allow the "wildness" to be beaten out of her.  Recall Verin's musing as she works her version of Compulsion on the Sisters taken at Dumai's Wells.  Most girls, by the time they get to the Tower have already developed some form of weave that causes Daddy to buy them that dress they want, or some candy, or ...

 

It isn't the ability to spark that makes them Wilders, it's the unwillingness to either come to the Tower or to abandon their heathen ways once they get there.

[ShiftedInsights]

Well the longest running debate on this thread has been at best, infuriating.  The slightest fraction of channelers are manifest with the innate spark, and the slightest fraction of the population has any channeling potential at all.  All of the societies outside of the Shara take no measures to breed male and female channelers together, and even then it is only with male channelers who manifest the spark (unless they have the testing method that Taim uses, but there is no evidence of that).  So while the Sharans possibly have a ratio of normals:channelers more consistent with the AOL than the rest of the societies, and those channelers are most probably of a higher average strength than the rest; every other society acts in ways to make their total number of potential channlers shrink, and the power of the ones that do appear are getting weaker over time.

  Despite that, the Seanchan, the Aiel, and the Sea Folk have much more regimented societies, the Seanchan due to their Imperial structure and militarization of the OP combined with a societal imperative to collar any channeler they find.  The Aiel due to their clan/sept structure, there are no outlier villages that would not have access to a channeling wise one to test girls, and they would know what to look for in the occasions that a sparker turns on and starts to get sick.  The Sea Folk live on boats, and while not all boats have a channeling windfinder (I believe they mention that to Nyn and Elayne when they travel with them, Sea Folk rarely give passage to Aei Sedai, and the boats that have a channeling windfinder would NEVER, save for all the Coramoory goodness going on.)  Regardless, the chances are very good that a Windfinder would notice a girl with the innate spark on her ship without even having to try.  Because of this, the Aiel and the Sea Folk find something close to 100% of sparkers, and probably something close to all of the non-sparking but able.  The Seanchan find almost every girl with a spark because they actively seek them, and most of the learners, but since they think learners aren't learners, and just have adam control power, they are still missing out on a huge percentage of the OP potential in their society. 

  As for Randland, continent wide social structure has been on the decline since Hawkwing, the normal social outlook on the OP is ignorance and fear, and the majority of trained channelers concentrate themselves in one place far to the north.  Most people would see a female relative start to get sick, and think they are just dying, not that their spark manifested and that is killing them.  People only know enough about the power to fear and avoid it, most of them do not know the underlying principles, or what to look for when a sparker switches on with no training.  The only time Aei Sedai do anything resembling recruiting is when they are out and about in the world doing things, and that cuts down the number of potential recruiters greatly, since Ajah's like the brown and the white stay in the Tower more often than not.  Reds and Blues spend the most time out among the commoners, and I would bet that Grey's find more of the sparkers among the nobility. 

    Moreover, they are out doing other things, if they walk by a sparker they will be like holy crap!  If you wanna live its time to go northeast!  Other than that, they will only catch learners if one metaphorically tugs on their shawl and asks for them to do the scan, and since the population is so spread out and the Aei Sedai are so concentrated, and only leave the tower for a reason, the vast majority of girls in the land mass would never have the chance to meet one, nor know to ask, and any ones who spark in backwater areas where people know next to nothing about the power are as good as dead or wilders.  The Aei Sedai, pre Salidar, recruit as passively as possible compared to the other societies, so with hard math or not, its pretty clear that they would have less trained channeling women than the other groups, with the exception of the Seanchan who think only the sparkers are channelers, who should have many less, though they should be stronger than average, but not as strong as the Sharan's

    The Two Rivers girls should not be taken as indicative of the distribution of channeling potential Randland-wide.  It used to be Manetheren, the 'old blood' the prophecies mention.  Mat started spouting the Old Tounge there pre Logoth Knife and the Finns, which while unrelated to channeling, is certainly an oddity.  Verin and Alanna refer to the Rivers as a treasure trove, and while once again there is no proof, I bet using their passive method of finding channelers, it would have taken a much larger land area to find three girls with the spark outside the Two Rivers.  I think it is safe to assume that the stock in the Two Rivers would have a higher percentage of channeling potential than other areas, due to the concentration of the strong old blood there, and its significance to the Pattern in the 3rd Age.

    One bit I would like cleared up by a more definitive source, I know that the male test for sadin detects the spark, and learners, but the resonance method then activates the ability in the learner, so if tested and discovered, the learner will begin to channel wither they want to or not.  I'm 99% sure this is not true for the female test, and that they can go about their lives if they are found with the ability but not the spark, but I would like to be sure. 

[Swigaro]

 

That's trying to have things both ways again.  Either 1% of the population can channel, or it can't.  Jordan said it could.

 

 

RJ says 1% of the population can channel, not that they do channel.  All of these numbers prove nothing, as it is stated clearly in the text that AS seek out Sparkers, but they only find the learners that come to them.  If the AS found every girl that could learn or would spark, like the Aiel or the Seanchan, then we could use the 1% channeling rate to extrapolate the population.  As it is clearly stated, numerous times in the text that the AS do not actively recruit learners, the argument is moot.  

 

 

Further, to the Tower, a Wilder is any female channeler who doesn't come to the Tower and allow the "wildness" to be beaten out of her.  Recall Verin's musing as she works her version of Compulsion on the Sisters taken at Dumai's Wells.  Most girls, by the time they get to the Tower have already developed some form of weave that causes Daddy to buy them that dress they want, or some candy, or ...

 

It isn't the ability to spark that makes them Wilders, it's the unwillingness to either come to the Tower or to abandon their heathen ways once they get there.

 

Why then does Suain tell Egwene that when two AS of equal power meet, one of the tie-breakers for who defers to who is whether or not one of them is a wilder.  One does not cease being a wilder because you go to the Tower.  Nynaeve will always be a wilder in the eyes of most AS.  Doesn't Elida even call Egwene a wilder in one of her rants?  Even though she came to the Tower, and was in fact tought to channel before she sparked?  

[Bob T Dwarf]

Shifted Lights - everything you mentioned is true.  That doesn't change the numbers.

 

Even without recruiting, there would still be 25 sparkers per year at 1/10th of 1% of the female population of Tar Valon, for whom a trip to the Tower would be a walk down the street.  25 girls every year, just from Tar Valon.

 

ComicCon July 2004 - Jason Denzel reporting

 

A question was asked about whether or not a non-channeler could go and become Enlightened through meditation and be able to sense the True Source, or even channel it.

RJ replied that there were indeed people in his world that sought Enlightenment in such ways, but no, that channeling was related to genetics. He went onto say that he estimates that the Age of Legends had about 2-3% of the population able to channel in one way or another, while in the modern world that number is down to about 1-2%.

[update: Robert Jordan sent me an email correcting this statement]:

RJ:  I went back to look at the article again and check something I thought I recalled. If I said the current population has about 1% to 2% who can learn to channel, then I misspoke, because I have set that figure at about 1%.

 

I've made what are by any measure reasonable estimates based entirely on that 1% figure.  I've even skewed things so that only 1 in 10 of that 1% might be sparkers, and still the numbers don't add up properly.  There should be far more Aes Sedai than there are given even a halfway realistic population estimate for the whole subcontinent, and excluding the Sea Folk and Aiel entirely.

[Arath Faringal]

Really?  How is that trying to have it boths ways?  It's the logical conclusion if you think that sparkers are at least as common, or even more so, than learners. If it's even a fifty/fifty split, there should me more sparkers then learners at the White Tower.

 

 

Further, to the Tower, a Wilder is any female channeler who doesn't come to the Tower and allow the "wildness" to be beaten out of her.  Recall Verin's musing as she works her version of Compulsion on the Sisters taken at Dumai's Wells.  Most girls, by the time they get to the Tower have already developed some form of weave that causes Daddy to buy them that dress they want, or some candy, or ...

 

It isn't the ability to spark that makes them Wilders, it's the unwillingness to either come to the Tower or to abandon their heathen ways once they get there.

 

Recall it?  Gladly.

 

The Path of Daggers, Prologue:

A great many things had captured her interest over the years, not all strictly approved of by the Tower.  Almost every wilder who came to the White Tower for training - both true wilders, who really had begun teaching themselves, and girls who merely had started touching the Source because the spark born in them had quickened on its own; for some sisters, there was no real difference - nearly every one of those wilders had created at least one trick for herself, and those tricks almost invariably fell under one of two headings.  A way to listen in on other people's conversations, or a way of making people do as they wanted.

 

From the glossary of LoC:

wilder: A woman who has learned to channel the One power on her own; only one in four survive this.  Such women usually build barriers against knowing what it is they are doing, but if these can be broken down, wilders are among the most powerful of channelers.  The term is often used in derogatory fashion.

 

Seems pretty clear that the term 'wilder' is used for sparkers.