The One Power (Full Book Spoilers)--No Balefire!

[Nightstrike]

Yes that one, which combined with the 62.5% figure (if I understand it correctly) seems to say that a far lower than average number of the novices would be able to earn the shawl.

No. Only the Egwene quote says that far less than 50 percent of all new novices will ever wear the shawl.

[WWWwombat]

Only the Egwene quote says that far less than 50 percent of all new novices will ever wear the shawl.

 

In other words, a far lower than average number yes?

[Nightstrike]

Lets assume, for sake of argument, that 10 percent of all were sparkers & all sparkers were strong enough to earn the shawl.

 

62.5 percent of all can become Aes Sedai.

 

Of the learners, ((62.5-10)/(100-10)=) 58 percent would be strong enough to earn the shawl. Far less than 50 percent of the new novices will never wear the shawl. Meaning, there must have been recruiting going on.

 

 

[Nightstrike]

In other words, a far lower than average number yes?

:-[ Oopss, yeah I read to quickly. That has happened a lot to me lately.  :-[

[Luckers]

Quote

Meanwhile, numerous Aes Sedai talking about how they didn't actively recruit before seems to indicate they didn't actively recruit before.

 

 

It's true that they didn't put as much effort into it as they should. But obviously they recruited among the ones they encountered. They should have done more, though.

 

They did not. If a girl approached a random Aes Sedai she would test her, but they did not actively recruit prior to Verin's trip to the Two Rivers. They state this several times throughout the series. Several Aes Sedai continue to express outrage that they are doing so now.

 

They did not recruit learners. They waited for them to come to the Tower.

 

Of the learners, ((62.5-10)/(100-90)=) 58 percent would be strong enough to earn the shawl. Far less than 50 percent of the new novices will never wear the shawl. Meaning, there must have been recruiting going on.

 

Nightstrike, your position seems to be that the absense amongst this group results from the others having been recruited beforehand--the ones of greater strength. There will be over a hundred thousand women who can channel in the Westlands. For recruitment to have undercut the thousand gathered in Murandy there would have to be thousands of Aes Sedai. Or at least thousands of women who trained in the Tower but did not make it.

 

Say we take Egwene's comment at face value. 'Most would never attain the shawl' as being a strength judgement. Lets say that means 75% of the 1000 wouldn't attain the shawl due to strength (I think that justifies 'most', or would you go higher?). Therefore 250 women who do have the strength, and 750 women who don't.

 

Now to bring that in line with RJ's comment of 62% of women having the strength to gain the shawl there needs to be 2142 women (in order that the 750 be around 38%)

 

Thats an excess of 1142 women that need to have been recruited in order that 'recruitment' explain Egwene's comment.  Even if we be stingy and lower Egwene's definition of most to 60% that still means 558 recruited women.

 

If they were actively recruiting were are these 500 to 1000 murandian women who have the strength to attain the shawl? And why would they be recruiting in Murandy alone--if they had put in the effort needed for your explanation of Egwene's comment in Murandy, then why not elsewhere?

 

That'd be tens of thousands of recruits with the strength to attain the shawl. Quite clearly thats patently not true.

 

That Egwene thought most wouldn't wear the shawl is either indicative of her referring to other attributes (personality) or her not having a good grip on the strength distribution of the novices (which is plausible. The information has to have come through Aes Sedai, and they suffer prejudice towards older novices). Sort of Egwene going "How are the novices?" "Good. Some are surprisingly strong. Still most will never wear the shawl (because they're too old in my mind to adjust to the Aes Sedai system)."

 

The fact is that in such numbers RJ's comment must hold true. Around 62% of those women will have the strength to wear the shawl--therefore Egwene was either mislead, thinking about the other requirements for the shawl, or just plain wrong.

 

Besides, your arguing against canon. It is stated dozens of times--the Aes Sedai do not recruit.

[Nightstrike]

They did not. If a girl approached a random Aes Sedai she would test her, but they did not actively recruit prior to Verin's trip to the Two Rivers. They state this several times throughout the series. Several Aes Sedai continue to express outrage that they are doing so now.

I don't think that's how it happened. I think that, if they saw a girl with high potential, then they tried to talk her into training in the Tower. Regardless of whether she was a sparker or a learner.

 

They did not recruit learners. They waited for them to come to the Tower.

I don't think that's how it happened.

 

Of the learners, ((62.5-10)/(100-90)=) 58 percent would be strong enough to earn the shawl. Far less than 50 percent of the new novices will never wear the shawl. Meaning, there must have been recruiting going on.

Nightstrike, your position seems to be that the absense amongst this group results from the others having been recruited beforehand--the ones of greater strength.

Yeah, any strong one encountered were probably subject to persuasion. Weak ones encountered were ignored.

 

There will be over a hundred thousand women who can channel in the Westlands. For recruitment to have undercut the thousand gathered in Murandy there would have to be thousands of Aes Sedai. Or at least thousands of women who trained in the Tower but did not make it.

We don't know that. There are several other things we don't know either.

 

Say we take Egwene's comment at face value. 'Most would never attain the shawl' as being a strength judgement. Lets say that means 75% of the 1000 wouldn't attain the shawl due to strength (I think that justifies 'most', or would you go higher?). Therefore 250 women who do have the strength, and 750 women who don't

 

Now to bring that in line with RJ's comment of 62% of women having the strength to gain the shawl there needs to be 2142 women (in order that the 750 be around 38%)

 

Thats an excess of 1142 women that need to have been recruited in order that 'recruitment' explain Egwene's comment.  Even if we be stingy and lower Egwene's definition of most to 60% that still means 558 recruited women.

 

If they were actively recruiting were are these 500 to 1000 murandian women who have the strength to attain the shawl? And why would they be recruiting in Murandy alone--if they had put in the effort needed for your explanation of Egwene's comment in Murandy, then why not elsewhere?

There are lots of unknown things. Very hard to do any calculation on this. They have talked to women they encountered who had great potential, that much is certain. It's also a certainty that they've never done any thorough search for novices.

 

 

[Nightstrike]

Lets assume, for sake of argument, that 10 percent of all were sparkers & all sparkers were strong enough to earn the shawl.

 

62.5 percent of all can become Aes Sedai.

 

Of the learners, ((62.5-10)/(100-10)=) 58 percent would be strong enough to earn the shawl. Far less than 50 percent of the new novices will ever wear the shawl. Meaning, there must have been recruiting going on.

 

 

 

[sdelu]

They did not recruit learners. They waited for them to come to the Tower.

I don't think that's how it happened.

 

I'm pretty sure it was specifically mentioned a couple of times in the books that the WT didn't recruit and that was why their numbers were so low. Possibly around the point where Egwene opens the WT to anyone who wishes to join. Don't have the books with me to check, though.

[Nightstrike]

I don't believe in that calculation myself, since I think there are both sparkers and learners in the Tower. Of approximately the expected percentages.

[Nightstrike]

I'm pretty sure it was specifically mentioned a couple of times in the books that the WT didn't recruit and that was why their numbers were so low. Possibly around the point where Egwene opens the WT to anyone who wishes to join. Don't have the books with me to check, though.

They have talked to women they encountered who had great potential, that much is certain. It's also a certainty that they've never done any thorough search for novices.

[Arani Lepenque Aes Sedai]

I'm pretty sure it was specifically mentioned a couple of times in the books that the WT didn't recruit and that was why their numbers were so low. Possibly around the point where Egwene opens the WT to anyone who wishes to join. Don't have the books with me to check, though.

They have talked to women they encountered who had great potential, that much is certain. It's also a certainty that they've never done any thorough search for novices.

 

The problem I see is that out of the whole population that can actually channel, only some percentage are actually INTERESTED to know how to do so, or even WANT to become Aes Sedai.  Thus the problem.  Even now, the Tower is relying on its reputation to get novices to come and enter their names in the novice book.

 

It was only the rebels in Salidar that actually started actively recruiting, and that was only what, 6 months ago in the actual timeline?

[Nightstrike]

The problem I see is that out of the whole population that can actually channel, only some percentage are actually INTERESTED to know how to do so, or even WANT to become Aes Sedai.  Thus the problem.  Even now, the Tower is relying on its reputation to get novices to come and enter their names in the novice book.

That's exactly what I think too. Many probably have bad feelings about Aes Sedai. Due to the Breaking and everything.

 

It was only the rebels in Salidar that actually started actively recruiting, and that was only what, 6 months ago in the actual timeline?

Yeah, if "actively recruiting" equals "doing a thourough search", then I agree 100%.

 

 

I just realized that I'm speaking as if this were a real life situation.  :D

 

 

 

[Arani Lepenque Aes Sedai]

It was only the rebels in Salidar that actually started actively recruiting, and that was only what, 6 months ago in the actual timeline?

Yeah, if "actively recruiting" equals "doing a thourough search", then I agree 100%.

 

Yep.  Activity recruiting = Doing a thorough search.

[coteaz]

I have a question for all of you, At the end of the book (Veins of Gold) Rand comments that the last time he had felt this alive (when he was pulling a ton of the OP through the CK) was when he had cleansed saidin AND when he had created Dragonmount (Lews Therin killing himself). Lews Therin was the leader of the Hall of Servants at the time, and due to his position he wore the ring of Tamyrlin, so my question is do you think that the ring of Tamyrlin is the other strong Sa'Angreal? If not how could Lews Therin have pulled so much of the OP into himself?

[Jaric Mar Tedronai]

It is possible, but LTT is not an isolated incident. This also happened when the last queen of Manetheren hurled the one power at the trolloc army when she felt her husband/warder/king die. It is possible to massively overdraw, as LTT did, but you cannot weave it into anything except a massive burst of pure force/energy, not sure the correct term. Once you do it though you fry yourself.

 

Also, if the ring of the Tamyrlin was the 2nd most powerful sa'angreal, it was almost definitely destroyed in the making of Dragonmount. Either that or if it is some type of cuendillar it may be in the bedrock somewhere, but good luck finding it in time for Tarmon Gai'don.

[Arath Faringal]

Actually, if the Ring of the Tamyrlin was a sa'angreal, and LTT was using it at the time, he couldn't have over channeled like he did.  The buffer in the sa'angreal would have prevented him from drawing too much of the power.

[Nightstrike]

He pulled in "more than he could channel unaided", and then kept pulling it in. It's possible that he had a flawed *angreal at the time. Basically, he couldn't channel that much either way.

 

Sa'angreal seems to be somewhat larger in size than angreal (Choedan Kal). Generally speaking, at least. I doubt the ring could be a powerful sa'angreal. I don't know what the ring of Tamyrlin was.

 

 

 

 

 

[Jaric Mar Tedronai]

It would have prevented him from drawing enough to damage himself unintentionally, but he could still have killed himself. It all depends on how you interpret what happened.

 

He could have overdrawn and just lashed out with as much force as he could draw, hence killing himself by overexerting himself, or he could have used the sa'angreal to draw as much as he could and then woven some huge column of fire and earth which killed him and burned through the crust layer enough to cause the plates under the surface to shift and create a mountain.

 

All in all, I should have delineated this in my prior post but I was too lazy.

 

EDIT: Nightstrike, I'm not convinced that bigger is necessarily better as far as objects of the Power goes. After all, Vora's wand is not huge, and is probably a fairly powerful sa'angreal, if it is the most powerful the tower possesses.

 

Granted, tEotW does say he pulled in more than he could channel unaided, but it doesn't actually spell out that he was unaided at that time.

[Nightstrike]

Granted, tEotW does say he pulled in more than he could channel unaided, but it doesn't actually spell out that he was unaided at that time.

No, I'm not suggesting anything either way. He could have been unaided (it's likely that he was).

 

 

 

Letter to Tom McCormick from RJ - November/December 1993 (copied from Theoryland):

Tom McCormick: Please find out if Lews Therin balefired himself in the prologue in The Eye of the World, or if he just drew too much of the One Power. If it isn't critical to the continuing plot, I'm sure he'll say.

RJ: Lews Therin did not use balefire on himself; he simply drew as much of the One Power as he could, then kept on pulling it in.

 

 

 

 

[coteaz]

Ahh, well the quote at the end of the book implies that he drew CK levels of power.

[Jaric Mar Tedronai]

I wasn't arguing either Nightstrike, just trying to point out circumstances for either possibility. I had read the RJ quote before about him not balefiring himself, so I was just running with coteaz's sa'angreal idea and laying out a possibility as to how he could have killed himself with it.

[coteaz]

Hmmm, do we know if the buff stops you from drawing to much period or does it stop you from unintentionally drawing to much, if the first then Lews Therin could have consciously drawn the amount he did.

[Jaric Mar Tedronai]

It will not allow you to draw more than your strength x whatever the amount the sa'angreal can handle safely. It is not possible to overdraw in any way with a correctly functioning angreal or sa'angreal.

 

 

Also, Arani Lepenque, do you have a quote about tying off weaves not being common knowledge? I asked earlier but there are like 5 new pages in the thread since then so it probably got overlooked.

[coteaz]

yeah that still makes it seem strange, lews therin can draw CK levels of the power even if it kills him, there really should have been more damage done.

[Arani Lepenque Aes Sedai]

Also, Arani Lepenque, do you have a quote about tying off weaves not being common knowledge? I asked earlier but there are like 5 new pages in the thread since then so it probably got overlooked.

 

I found that quote on Wheel of Time Concordance.  But I'll have to go back home and search for it again.

 

@coteaz.  Well, I suppose that he drew enough of the power to melt some 15KM of pure solid rock in a few seconds, which would need quite a huge amount of Saidin...  And it did sort of shift and heave the world when LTT did that soo...

 

I don't really find it that improbable.