So, where do we stand?

[Luckers]

And Sammael did say that 'events in the south' had Demandred written all over them.

 

Ok, maybe I remember a little bit why this was my favourite pet theory for a time.

[Mr. Micawber]

I'd say that it's got to be Land of Madmen or Shara, though I'd never really considered the former much before.

 

Because at this point a. I feel more like Taim is and has been an Elan Morin operative and b. the Shadow needs some channelers stat, or else the Big Guy's going to have start doing things like eclipses (heh, foreshadowed much?) or toss some anti-matter around.

 

Although, he's basically throwing around anti-matter right now.

 

And Sammael did say that 'events in the south' had Demandred written all over them.

 

Ok, maybe I remember a little bit why this was my favourite pet theory for a time.

 

Actually, I still think he was talking about the Seanchan, who really *did* have Demandred's fingerprints all over them, but in the form of his currently unindicted co-conspirator Semirhage.

[bmunge]

Love the posts Luckers. Very insightful. One thing I don't think RJ does well is explaining how these armies are maintained. Especially with the messed up seasons, you'd think food stocks would be a major issue. It seems like most of the world would be starving right now.

[Mr. Micawber]

Love the posts Luckers. Very insightful. One thing I don't think RJ does well is explaining how these armies are maintained. Especially with the messed up seasons, you'd think food stocks would be a major issue. It seems like most of the world would be starving right now.

 

Something those who love to talk about how many Trollocs are probably around love to ignore this. Shayol Ghul basically put the kibosh on raiding for about two years now.

 

The Trollocs can't be too happy either, considering that the Mountains of Dhoom have all kinds of Beastie McNasties that don't follow anybody's orders, and that probably like to eat Trollocs. Like jumara for instance.

[Muad Cheade]

Luckers, I think your numbers are entirely too high.

 

I found the faq from wotmania whose numbers I think were pretty much on point, except for the Borderlands. Below is the gist of the faq with my comments interspersed.

 

Rand's Forces:

Aiel

The seven clans Rand had with him before Cairhien, combined with the four Clans that joined him later initially added up to around four hundred and eighty thousand spears, but casualties—in Cairhien and in Illian—and the bleakness have reduced their numbers. Speculation: four hundred and twenty thousand Aiel are still under Rand’s command.

 

Tear

In Knife of Dreams, for the first time in this series, all of Tear’s High Lords and High Ladies, except High Lady Fionnda, were gathered in one location. Darlin, Astoril, Weiramon and Anaiyella were in the Stone—although Weiramon’s and Anaiyella’s forces were with other nobles. Tedosian, Estanda, Hearne, and Simaan were camped in the city with all their forces along with a large number of mercenaries....The sum of Tear’s armies—nobles’ armsmen, Defenders and sell-swords—should reach ninety thousand men.

 

Cairhien

The current army, a sum of the armsmen from an array of many houses led by Semaradrid, is in Illian. The rest of Cairhien’s forces may or may not have been sent to Arad Doman. Speculation: Considering the devastation cause by the Civil War, famine, Tear’s occupation, and the Shaido’s invasion, Cairhien might be able to field as many as twenty thousand soldiers.

 

Illian

During Crossroads Of Twilight, A Chat with Siuan, we hear about the increasing forces being gathered by Lord Gregorin, the Steward of Illian, to face the Seanchan. Gregorin must have recalled the forces Rand scattered around Illian during Path of Daggers, since the Tairen nobles and soldiers among those forces returned to Tear—although Rand has given the order that Tolmeran’s group is to return to Illian. Speculation: Lord Gregorian will not be able to raise an army as large as Sammael’s, but Illian should be able to raise an army of eighty thousand.

 

Ghealdan

Now that Queen Alliandre is finally free from the Shaido, her alliance can be made public. However, this is a nation that needs help, not one that can give a helping hand. On the other hand the Whitecloaks’ disappearance along with the Prophet’s long term absence should have had a good effect on the situation.

 

Andor

The state of the Succession and the siege of Caemlyn triggered most Andoran houses into mobilizing their forces, thus leading to a highly militarized state. Therefore Elayne’s success in claiming the throne has in effect unified most Andor’s strength, and the army is prepared for action.

 

Before the major battle for Caemlyn, Elayne had slightly over twenty thousand men in Caemlyn (Queen’s Guard included) (Knife of Dreams, To Keep the Bargain and Nine Out of Ten). Yet this was far from all the strength her house and those of her five supporters could lend her; the siege had kept many of her people away from the city. On the other hand, now that the siege is over the rest of her supporters will be free to join her, thus we could expect to see a noticeable increase in size of her original supporter’s forces. Speculation: final numbers for the first six houses to support her should reach over forty thousand, in addition to near ten thousand Queen’s Guards and mercenary companies.

 

Arathelle, Luan, Abelle, Aemlyn, Pelivar, and Ellorien have close to sixty thousand men between them—although many of these will be drafted village folk who are under trained, inexperienced and lack proper arms and armor (Knife of Dreams, A Bronze Bear, The Importance of Dyelin). Of these six, five are pledged to support Elayne and Ellorien has pledged to send her troops to the Last Battle with the other Andoran troops (Knife of Dreams, The Importance of Dyelin).

 

Lir, Karind, and Sylvase should have fifteen or twenty thousand men left (considering casualties and those taken by Jarid). Arymilla’s, Naean’s and Elenia/Jarid’s forces are currently reduced and unreliable; although Elayne’s coronation should put an end to the fighting.

 

On a good day Andor could field up to one hundred and thirty to a hundred and fifty thousand men—Queen’s Guard, mercenaries, and noble’s armsmen, and regular draftees many of whom will be elderly or inexperienced and half trained.

 

In Knife of Dreams, The Importance of Dyelin, Elayne said that if they gathered all of Andor’s strength (not all of which are pledged to Elayne yet) they could nearly match the Borderlanders’ numbers (200,000) but two thirds of their forces would be under-trained.

 

Saldean Light Cavalry

Lord Bashere, one of the best generals in the land, leads eight thousand light cavalry from Saldaea.

 

The Legion of the Dragon

A few months have passed since recruiting for the Legion started, and their method has been very successful. At the end of A Crown of Swords, we saw fifteen thousand Legion-men armed and trained, and this was in the first month only. The Legion is still inexperienced, but they seem very well trained. SPECULATION: Their current number should be over seventy thousand soldiers, though many would be new and need weeks of training.

 

The Band of the Red Hand

Currently they are in two sections. One part is with Mat moving northeast out of Altara; this group was comprised of three banners of horse and four thousand mounted crossbowmen. They had lost four hundred crossbowmen and five hundred cavalry before their last battle in Altara (Knife of Dreams, Prince of the Ravens) and recruited some Altarans (amount unknown) who were fighting the Seanchan. The other section, lead by Estean and Daerid, comprised of three banners of horse, five banners of foot and the Mason’s Banner, is moving north out of Murandy and into Andor (Knife of Dreams, Attending Elaida). According to the World of Robert Jordan’s The Wheel of Time, each banner of horse contains fifteen hundred men and each banner of infantry three thousand, placing the Band’s overall size at over thirty thousand men.

 

Perrin's Army

It consists of three to four thousand Two Rivers bowmen (Knife of Dreams, The Last Knot), close to nine hundred Mayener Winged Guards (The Path of Daggers, A Simple Country Woman), and close to a thousand Ghealdan Lancers (Winter’s Heart, The Scent of Madness). There are also some Aiel Maidens, six Wise Ones, three Aes Sedai, and two Asha’man with Perrin. The Aiel, including gai’shain total less than 50 (Crossroads of Twilight, The Forging of a Hammer).

 

Asha’man

There must be well over six hundred Asha’man enrolled in the Black Tower by now, possibly even over seven hundred. Many of the men are located in the Black Tower, south of Caemlyn, but more than half of the men in the Black Tower were moved to Arad Doman and Illian, including all the Asha’man with bonded Aes Sedai (Knife of Dreams, News for the Dragon) and less than a dozen with Rand (Knife of Dreams, The Golden Crane).

 

Of the six to seven hundred or so men enrolled, a faction is loyal to Logain. Taim also has his own faction. The one hundred men who attend his private classes are certainly his, and are probably all Darkfriends. Some Soldiers and Dedicated would also feel loyal to the M’Hael—although Taim’s harsh behavior is unlikely to make him very popular. A large portion of the Soldiers and Dedicated do not have any specific loyalty, and we could assume that they would obey Rand over Taim.

 

Borderlands:

 

They cannot take more than 300,000 men on an attack, but they should be able to field over 800,000 in defense—reasons below.

The Golden Crane:

Lan has “undertaken” a long journey traveling the entire width of the Borderlands, and Nynaeve is contacting prominent Malkieri to ensure men will join him on his journey to the Last Battle. It is likely that there are many men who would join Lan even if they are not from Malkier. Nynaeve’s loyalties and Lan’s previous behavior indicate that they are closer allies to Rand than the four Borderland rulers down in Andor.

 

Borderland Alliance

In A Crown Of Swords, Deceptive Appearances, we learned that all four Borderland rulers had come south and brought their armies along. Tenobia said that she has close to fifty thousand men behind her, and it is possible that each ruler brought just as many soldiers south. Merilille Sedai believes their numbers to be over two hundred thousand (Winter’s Heart, Expectations) and Birgitte speaks of two hundred thousand soldiers (Crossroads of Twilight, What Wise Ones Know). The army is currently a few days north of Caemlyn. These are all hardened men with experience fighting Trollocs along the Blight Border. They would be a great addition to Rand’s army, perhaps forming the heart, with soldiers from other nations providing bulk and support.

Remaining Borderlander armies

We don’t know how many experienced warriors were left to guard the borders: Alesune, King Easar’s shatayan, said ”We have left the Blight all but unguarded,” while Queen Ethenielle said “What I’ve left behind can guard the Blight short of the Trolloc Wars coming again” (The Path of Daggers, Prologue). It is these men who will hear Lan’s call to ride with the Golden Crane for Tarwin’s Gap.

 

However, what is certain is that every Border-man will take up arms once the Last Battle is there—they have no other choice. A large portion of men in these nations have some experience fighting raids, and once the Trollocs come they must kill or be killed.

 

Muad Cheade's thought:

I truly think that the Borderland forces light on the Blightborder at the most is 100,000. That's about 25,000 per nation. It fits in with the thought that they had either left the Blight all but unguarded or could stop anything short of the Trolloc Wars.

 

Seanchan

The Seanchan’s known and mobile armies are as follows: One hundred thousand in northern Altara; they are meant to guard against Andor and Murandy (Knife of Dreams, Under an Oak). A large army trapped in Arad Doman—speculation: one hundred and fifty thousand soldiers. The army gathering close to Illian must also have well over one hundred thousand men. There must also be an army ready to hit Tar Valon, though it would be necessary to scatter them—this avoids being noticed and eases the toraken’s workload.

 

In addition, there are a few smaller armies hunting for Aiel—between ten or fifteen thousand men in each. Additionally there are sizable military camps near the major cities.

 

Prior to the Sea Folk damane being freed at the end of Winter’s Heart, Ebou Dar was home to at least two hundred damane (Winter’s Heart, News in a Cloth Sack). Of course the overall number of damane is much higher given that there are damane guards in every city, and each army and major outpost has their own damane. In addition, Tylee captured more than two hundred Shaido Wise Ones in Knife of Dreams, Outside the Gates, which must be a significant addition.

 

The Seanchan may have anywhere up to 600,000 soldiers, and well over 1000 damane.

 

Independent Forces

Tar Valon Aes Sedai

Tar Valon’s military force is the Tower Guard, and it is led by High Captain Jimar Chubain. Elaida ordered their number to be raised to fifty thousandduring A Crown Of Swords, and men were going into the city via ships to join the army during Crossroads Of Twilight, but their current number can only be guessed at. The Tower Guards have organized ranks and are led according to standard military methods; their captains are chosen according to experience and knowledge rather than being lords.

 

The Younglings, led by Gawyn Trakand, number over 300 and are in Dorlan on the east bank of the Erinin, although Elaida sent instructions to Gawyn for them (Crossroads Of Twilight, Glimmers).

 

There are only about two hundred Aes Sedai in the White Tower at the moment according to Yukiri (Crossroads Of Twilight, Glimmers).

 

Rebel Aes Sedai

The rebel Aes Sedai’s Army is led by Gareth Bryne, former Captain General of the Andor’s Queen’s Guards. He is one of the best generals in the land and has included a variety of soldiers in the army, from Shienarin-style heavy cavalry to light cavalry (The Path Of Daggers, Out on the Ice) and infantry. Gawyn believes the rebel Aes Sedai army numbers at least twenty five thousand on the east bank of the Erinin at Tar Valon and as many on the west bank (50,000)(Crossroads Of Twilight, Glimmers).

 

There are about three hundred rebel Aes Sedai, twenty one Accepted (Crossroads of Twilight, Secrets) and nearly one thousand novices (The Path of Daggers, Beginnings), some of whom are quite strong and not bound by the Three Oaths. However, their figurehead, Egwene, was captured by Aes Sedai from the White Tower in Crossroads of Twilight, What The Oath Rod Can Do, and is in the White Tower.

 

Children of the Light

There are about seven thousand well trained regular cavalry men and ten Lord Captains led by Lord Captain Commander Galad Damodred. The Children were originally housed in Amador, capital of Amadicia, but they lost their base, the Fortress of the Light, to the Seanchan invasion. They are currently in northwestern Altara and moving north towards western Andor.

 

Murandy

Recently King Roedran has worked hard on uniting the Murandian forces by paying Talmanes and the Band of the Red Hand to stay in Murandy and appear a threat. According to Talmanes he had been very satisfied with the bargain, which hints at Roedran’s success (Knife of Dreams, Attending Elaida). Talmanes also stated that Roedran had been ready to turn on the Band, which means that Murandy’s army must have been large enough to be a danger to the Band’s thirty thousand men. Speculation: Murandy’s army must have at least thirty five thousand men.

 

Arad Doman

This nation’s permanent army, Arad Doman’s equivalent to the Queen’s Guard or the Defenders, has about ten to fifteen thousand soldiers and is lead by the great captain Rodel Ituralde. In Crossroads of Twilight, Glimmers, Ituralde made a pact with the Dragonsworn of Arad Doman and Tarabon, leading as many as twenty thousand men south to raid the Seanchan and draw them north (Knife of Dreams, Prologue). At the same time he had sent messages to the nation’s nobility ordering them to position themselves for a trap:

 

Like most other nations, the nobility posses the bulk of the nation’s soldiers, and hiding them in the mountains was a part of Ituralde’s plan for the Seanchan. As we saw in Knife of Dreams, Embers Falling on Dry Grass, Ituralde’s raid was a success both in doing damage and drawing the Seanchan. In the Knife of Dreams Epilogue we saw evidence of the plan’s success. At least one hundred thousand men came out of the mountains to join Ituralde when he crossed into Arad Doman, and possible two hundred thousand came out after Turan crossed the border. So Turan has one army ahead and another behind, outnumbering Turan.

 

Yet where had Ituralde found over two to three hundred thousand soldiers? In the prelude Ituralde admits to having a plan for every eventuality, except the Dragon Reborn appearing before him. I believe that this was the very thing that happened.

 

Furthermore while Ituralde was fighting his way north out of Tarabon, Rand’s armies were busy conquering Arad Doman. What's more, Rand’s forces would have had an easy time conquering Arad Doman since Ituralde and the army were out of the country and most of the nobility and their men were hiding in the mountains.

Nonetheless some of the nobility or Dragonsworn would have remained behind, and they could have easily sent information to Rand regarding Ituralde’s disposition. This seems like a good explanation about how two hundred thousand soldiers seemed to appear out of nowhere.

 

Speculation: Arad Doman itself, once order is re-established and the Dragonsworn are reintegrated into the army, could raise an army of fifty thousand.

 

Muad Cheade's Thought:

I disagree with the FAQ's theory that the second army that cut of Turan's retreat was Rand's. Rand's forces are still securing the city. The armies are Ituralde's and it is in fact the majority of Arad Doman's population. The 350,000 are not a trained force however. The majority of them are under-trained and not used to fighting. The reasoning for that is in KoD, Logain tells Rand that Rhuarc is looking for anyone who is in charge of more than a village and that the main cities are relatively empty. This signifies that the men Ituralde has gathered are in fact as many men the Domani nobles could gather and give weapons to. Fifty thousand does seem to be the right figure when you combine the Domani army with the Domani Dragonsworn.

 

The Shadow

 

Muad Cheade's thought

 

We don't know how many Trollocs and Shadowspawn the Shadow has at its disposal but it is currently gathering its forces and the fact that 100,000 Trollocs were able to be gathered quickly sent to attack Rand yet were noticed when they were missing means that there are atleast one million available troops.

 

We don't know exactly how many channelers the Shadow has but as seen in the War of Power and the Trolloc Wars, the Shadow consistently has enough dreadlords to effectively counter the Light's channelers and allow their numerical superiority to win the battles.

 

Muad Cheade's Final Thoughts

However, despite these figures, the Dark One's increasingly devastating touch on the world is severely affecting not only the populace but also the armed forces. The lack of food and the fact that new food often spoils instantly will have a increasingly growing effect of the Light's forces.

 

I don't think Shara will be a factor. If it does, it will have upwards of 500,000 thousand men (since its size is comparable to the Seanchan continent and the Westlands) and several hundred channelers.

 

I definitely don't think the Land of the Madmen will factor in.

[Mr. Micawber]

I definitely don't think the Land of the Madmen will factor in.

 

Come now, Muad. Australians always factor in, one way or another!

[Luckers]

Yeah, we not only factor in, we be running things from the shadows. Fear us!

[Bob T Dwarf]

While I think a real Tarmon Gaidon should include forces from all of mankind, Jordan's statements seem to indicate that Shara and the Land of Madmen will be sitting this one out, along with all forces still in Seanchan.  So I think we should limit ourselves to only those forces currently present in the Westlands.

 

Those represented on the map are about 2.2 million exclusive of channelers, plus close to a half million Seanchan, again exclusive of channelers.

 

I agree, not all of those will be effectives, but that shouldn't matter much.  Trollocs are untrainable and have to be driven and coerced into action and then are totally undisciplined in combat.  So, even a half-trained human formation that will hold together should do well against a much larger Trolloc horde.

 

My own feeling is that if the renegades and traitors number more than 20% of human forces, the Light is gonna be pretty screwed initially.  I think when it gets down to the heavy slogging, the Light's forces will number somewhere between 1 and 1.5 million.  Rand is going to have a pretty problem deciding how many of his channelers to employ as fighters and how many as healers.  The Shadow won't be burdened by any such considerations.  Casualties will just be left to die.  Thus a far smaller channeler force for the Dark can be more combat-effective than a larger one for the Light.  That'll be a problem.  Part of that problem will be alleviated by the Light's ability to Travel troops where needed, something the Dark cannot do with their Shadowspawn.

 

Best guess, the good guys will be outnumbered 2:1 in fighters, and have an edge in channelers of 3:2, meaning that the Shadow will actually have more channelers fighting than the Light will.

 

ASSUMING that Mat is successful in rescuing Moiraine and that she has something worthwhile to contribute,  and, ASSUMING that Mat gets reunited with the Horn and puts the Heroes into play at the right time, the Light should win the conventional war.

 

It's all going to come down to Rand and how he plays the "To live you must die" game, because winning the conventional war doesn't mean squat.

 

 

[Bob T Dwarf]

Next question.

 

Will we be likely to see much more than the opening skirmishes in TGS?

 

How many cannon will Aludra manage to get made and will we see them early or will they be kept for surprise effect later?

[Luckers]

Will we be likely to see much more than the opening skirmishes in TGS?

 

My thought is no. Either Jason or Brandon said that one major POV is missing, and I reckon that will be Lan. Specifically I think that the invasion MAY be seen to begin at the very end of tGS, and that we'll get our first Lan chapter in the prologue of ToM showing the full force of it. Or else it will all just happen in ToM.

 

How many cannon will Aludra manage to get made and will we see them early or will they be kept for surprise effect later?

 

I'm pretty sure Mat will send the Band on to Caemlyn in tGS, and Andor has the largest manufactories in the world, so thats were the manufacturing will be done, and probably in large numbers. Whether we will see them used heavily in tGS remains a mystery to me.

[Bob T Dwarf]

Sorry, I don't remember who it was, but there was a theory that the initial attacks would come out of the Shadow Coast.  

 

My sense is that Tuon is going to require some prodding to make any kind of alliance with Rand, especially one that doesn't give her all of the Westlands.  So, is this the Wheel starting to give her the nudge she needs?

 

Edit: Careful with the spoilers. Even such a small thing is still a no-no.

/Maj

[Luckers]

Sorry, I don't remember who it was, but there was a theory that the initial attacks would come out of the Shadow Coast.  Even though Tylee isn't there, is that what we're starting to see?  A broad, general attack in the South?

 

It was me! Yay! Yeah, the idea was basically that there were alot of Stedding in the Shadow Coast. In fact that is specifically stated several times, whilst nowhere else subject to Seanchan rule is stated to have stedding (although there are statments about stedding in the Mountains of the Mist)

 

 

My sense is that Tuon is going to require some prodding to make any kind of alliance with Rand, especially one that doesn't give her all of the Westlands.  So, is this the Wheel starting to give her the nudge she needs?

 

I agree completely. That and Semirhage. It's also why she'll do things like set aside the leashing of damane (which I'm sure he will insist on) and why she'll hold off on her ideas that Rand must kneel to the Crystal Throne.

 

Edit: Just spoilerhunting, you bad boy.

[Bob T Dwarf]

Edit: Again, carful with the spoilers, however small. And bad Luckers for not paying attention *thwap*

[Luckers]

Yeah, that was precisely what i was trying to address.

[Bob T Dwarf]

So, where are the major conventional battlefields going to be?

 

Given the location of Stedding and Waygates, Almoth Plain seems likely.  What about Caralain Grass?  Stedding Taishin seems perfectly placed to disgorge a whole lotta Trollocs.  Stedding Jentoine in the Black Hills, too.

[Mr Ares]

Yeah, we not only factor in, we be running things from the shadows. Fear us!

Bah! I'm not afraid of Australians running things from the Shadows. I've figured out how to neutralise your evil plots. *Holds up six pack of beer*