Theory on the Red Ajah

[algspkr]

I'm wondering if the Reds showing up in the Tower with Ashaman warders will cause another split, or give the rebels Red Sitters. I am sure that when the Black Tower expidition of Reds show up Elida will have a break down, the Red Ajah might as well. Elida will order the new warders gentled, and the sisters who hold the bonds will object. They will flee the tower to protect their warders and goto the one place they have a chance at keeping their warders while at the same time remaining in good standing with a tower, the rebels.

 

I also believe that several other Reds will follow them due to the fact that they view the ajah head as equal to the Amerlyn, and so will object to Elida's behavior. Some will also object to the bonding so not all will leave the tower.

[Anajon]

Interesting idea - I think the reds are on some point going to take Ewgene's side (she hasn't removed the red stripe from her stole).

 

But somehow I doubt that the ones who have gone to the black tower will play a role in it. I think we first have to see how the whole scenario at the black tower plays out - are all the AM darkfriends? are the reds actually black? Who or what is Taim? Will they even make it abck to the tower? Will Elaida still be in charge when they come back? I think by the time the red Aes Sedai arrive at the BT - the "dinner has been served" by Ewgene to Elaida and sure that has lead to some results!

 

So lots of questions

[Luckers]

Mmm i agree that the Red will likely not cause too much of an issue. Pevara and the others are much too savy for that--they already thought on how the warders are going to be secured in the city which makes me believe they arn't going to reveal their presense right away. My suspicion is that by the time they become known the Aes Sedai will have other things to worry abotu, like the Seanchan. Elaida will likely already be in the process of breaking down completely and Egwene will have likely taken power before it even becomes an issue.

[Dionysus]

are the reds actually black?

 

We know that Pevara is not Black, and it is likely that Tarna isnt black based on her PoV in KoD.

[Anajon]

I agree that Pevara and Tarna are most likley not black - but what about Tsutsama(spelling) (the new leader of the red) - it could still be a black Ajah ploy even so not all the sisters involved are black.

[Mat Comes With The Dawn]

Honestly, I don't believe just because the Aes Sedai decide that gentling men is a worthy cause to devote to, and Rand is a man who can channel, they're dominantly black. They probably have as many black as the other Ajahs.

 

But of course, the taint was cleansed, and the purpose of the Red is kind of outdated. They will probably have to find a new purpose. One of those could be investigation of Darkfriends, as Pevara is doing, but it could be something else.

[Luckers]

Frankly i don't see Tsutsama being black... she strikes me as deeply and thoroughly individual... too much so to be black. She's just badass red.

[moroten]

My thoughts on the subject:

 

When Seanchan will attack the switch in leadership will take place. The AM the reds have secured in the city will help against the seanchan attack. Elaida unable to make any counterattack what so ever will be removed and Egwene will take command fighting the seanchan back.

 

Hopefully elaida will be taken by the seanchan.

[Kaznen]

When the reds went to the BT Perva(?) was thinking how the warders would have to be hidden in the city. The bonded Reds aren't going to return to the tower and say, "Meet my new warder. His name is Kic Enass Asha'mman."

 

And even if they said it was decided that the Reds should have warders, regular warders, there is no way they could make an Asha'man ditch his black coat and pins for a green warder's coat. The Fancloth cloak they would take, but that's about it.

[rd2000]

Soon there won't even BE a Red Ajah (the taintis gone, no need to gentle the men) Some of the more intelligent reds will have to know this by now, or will soon. Either the Red Ajah will need to change it's main function, or cease to exist.

[Luckers]

I think the foundation is being laid by RJ for them to be changing their main function... Pevara and the others are doing that.

 

I rather doubt the Ajah will disapear... after all the Greens have had no actual role except for during the Trolloc Wars, and they're still around.

[Kaznen]

The Greens are standing ready for the Last Battle. And I'm willing to bet that during the 2000 years since the Trolloc Wars many Borderland armies had Green with them when they fought in the Blight.

 

I'm a little surprised that Alising Noon wasn't at the Battle of Tarwin's Gap in tEotW with the King of Sheiner. She's green. And I bet there were times Alanna felt a kind of thrill fighting trollocs in the TR.

[prophetman]

It is interesting to think of what will happen to the Reds. I doubt that the results of their visit to the Black Tower will be pleasant, since it is now apparent that Taim is a DF. Perhaps the bonded Ashaman will go back to the WT and help to attack it or cause some such trouble.

 

At this point, I don't think it would matter much if the reds came back with "Kic Enass Asha'mman" since Elaida is crazy enough to allow it.

[Seldy]

Elaida is a firm believer of gentling. The Red Ajah bonding warders is a break of custom, and could probably result in a penance by the Ajah leader, I don't think the Amyrlin could force them to do much, even if she were from the Red.

 

But bonding a male channeler? Every red that would do so could be brought up on charges and likely be stilled as a result.

 

They found enough reason to still Sanche just because she allowed Moiraine to help Rand along.

[RobertAlexWillis]

Very true ... actually, I think finding out about this might spell the beginning of the end for Elaida. She will almost certainly GROSSLY over-react, which would be a great time for Egwene to give the little push that topples her.

[Dionysus]

Mmm i agree that the Red will likely not cause too much of an issue. Pevara and the others are much too savy for that--they already thought on how the warders are going to be secured in the city which makes me believe they arn't going to reveal their presense right away. My suspicion is that by the time they become known the Aes Sedai will have other things to worry abotu' date=' like the Seanchan. Elaida will likely already be in the process of breaking down completely and Egwene will have likely taken power before it even becomes an issue.[/quote']

 

and what do you think will happen when the Seanchan attack, and perhaps the subsequent Shadowspawn attack? Will the Asha'man stay locked up waiting for it to pass?

[RobertAlexWillis]

I would imagine when the Seanchan attack, "Kick Enass Asha'mman" and his pals would jump out, eliciting Elaida's overreaction (at the worst possible time) giving Egwene her opportunity to take the reins.

 

By the way ... why does everyone seem convinced that the White Tower will be attacked by Shadowspawn at or around the time of the Seanchan attack? I've seen nothing to indicate that plan from the Shadow. In fact, it would be a bad policy. All it would do is force the Aes Sedai into fighting an enemy they both acknowledge. The Shadow would have to be pretty stupid to go to all that effore in breaking the Tower, only to provide the impetus for it to reunite. Especially when they have the Seanchan to do the bleeding for them.

[Dionysus]

One piece of information that suggests that there will be a shadowspawn attack is that the mark Alviarin receives makes it so that shadowspawn will recognize her and not attack her. What good is this mark if the plan is to have the Seanchan take over the White Tower?

 

There are also a few signs -- the waygate by TV has not been closed, the SAS note numerous times of the smell of sulphur, yes they are close to DM but it could have a double meaning. They frequently sense 'evil' and try to ward it off.

 

Also, what good is it for the Seanchan to retain control of the White Tower, then instead of having to battle the Aes Sedai in the White Tower, they have to battle the Seanchan in the White Tower. Seanchan aren't agents of the dark, and just like Randland, the shadow is at war with them too. They have already destroyed their homeland, Graendal has sent Ituralde to stir up trouble in the west.

[RobertAlexWillis]

Shaidar Haran gave Alviarin the mark so that Mesaana wouldn't kill her, following Mesaana's specific threat to do so. It doesn't indicate any kind of plan to send Shadowspawn into Tar Valon.

 

The wardings which are failing and being reset have to do with keeping food from rotting and keeping out rats and crows, which can be spies for the Dark One. But there are a whole lot of reasons for the Shadow to spy other than an impending invasion.

 

The Waygate being unguarded does leave a path into Tar Valon, but its been there the whole time, and there is no reason to make such an attack more likely now than at any other time. The "sulphur smell" is specifically noted as coming from Dragonmount, an active volcano.

 

A battle between the Seanchan and the White Tower is good for the Shadow because it weakens BOTH sides. All the Forsaken have orders to foster chaos. Channelers ripping up the biggest, oldest city in Randland fighting against each other, with the possibility of a 3 way conflict (Tower, Seanchan, Rebels) certainly qualifies as chaos ...

[Dionysus]

I dont know why SH would have to put a mark on Alviarin to get Mesaana not to kill her. A simple request, such as "dont kill Alviarin" would probably suffice after what he did to her.

 

In RJs QOTW he gets asked about the mark...

 

Week 2 Question: Is the mark that Alviarin received from Shaidar Haran the same as that the Forsaken received from the Dark One? If so, is she now a Forsaken, or some sort of lesser Chosen?

 

Robert Jordan Answers: The mark that Alviarin received from Shaidar Haran was not the same as that given to the Forsaken, though it shares one function: Shadowspawn will recognize her as belonging to the Dark One. They will not obey her as they will the Forsaken, however, but she doesn't have to worry about one trying to kill her, either. She is not any sort of lesser Chosen. You might think of it more like the tattoo some people get put inside the ear of their dog, an identification so others will know who the dog belongs to as soon as they see it.

 

It's probably not even likely that Mesaana can even see the mark, as it says Shadowspawn will be able to notice it, and she walks all around the White Tower and notes that no one can see it.

[RobertAlexWillis]

While it's true that Mesaana probably can't see it, she was present when alviarin was marked and therefore knows about it. The fact that Shadowpawn will recognize her is an effect of the mark, but that in and of itself is not sufficient to say that an assault is planned on the Tower. More likely Alviarin is to be one of the Dreadlords at Tar'mon Gaidon and will therefore have to order Shadowspawn. There are too many reasons for the Shadow NOT to attack the Tower.

[Luckers]

and what do you think will happen when the Seanchan attack, and perhaps the subsequent Shadowspawn attack? Will the Asha'man stay locked up waiting for it to pass?

 

As i said in the post you quoted, by that time their presense will be less of an issue. Elaida will be breaking down and Egwene will be taking charge. The rebels will likely join with the Tower Aes Sedai in fighting the Seanchan which means there will already be Asha'men involved in that fight...

 

By the way ... why does everyone seem convinced that the White Tower will be attacked by Shadowspawn at or around the time of the Seanchan attack? I've seen nothing to indicate that plan from the Shadow. In fact, it would be a bad policy. All it would do is force the Aes Sedai into fighting an enemy they both acknowledge. The Shadow would have to be pretty stupid to go to all that effore in breaking the Tower, only to provide the impetus for it to reunite. Especially when they have the Seanchan to do the bleeding for them.

 

My suspicion is that in the prologue of the next book the first assault of Tarmon Gai'don will be launched, and met by Lan who will hold it back slightly, but still be driven back. At the same time the seanchan assault on Tar Valon will start, and Rand will go to meet Tuon. By the time the Trollocs drive Lan all the way back to Tar Valon a standstill in the battle between the Seanchan and the Aes Sedai will be reached. At the same time the Black Ajah Hunters and Alviarin will become known, forcing the Blacks to rise before they were ready. Likely an assault force will come out of the Waygate at the same time.

 

The Trollocs will attack the portion of the city held by the Aes Sedai, not the seanchan. And the Aes Sedai will be losing badly. Tuon will arrive with Rand, and lead her forces against the Trollocs (thereby fulfilling the seanchan woman dream Egwene had). Rand will likely face Egwene's anger at this stage.

 

Of course the presence of Lan is not nessasary... it could be an entirely seperate assault, i suspect there will be more then one incursion--Rhuarc and the others will have to fight one in Saldaea too, im guessing. But only so many forces can get through a Waygate, so for a Trolloc army of any significance to attack Tar Valon i suspect it has to go through the borderlands, and having Lan present at Tar Valon fits with, amongst other thing, Nynaeve, Myrelle and Lan all being present in the one place, the possible return of Moiraine and some other stuff.

 

As for specific evidence of these events. We know that there will be some joint task a Seanchan (or the seanchan) and Egwene will need to face. Also there needs to be a very quick raising of the pace, there isn't enough room in this last book to allow for seperate insidents, these things need to start happening together...

[RobertAlexWillis]

Um .... if they dont use a Waygate, it will take that Shadowspawn army a month to travel from the Borderlands to Tar Valon, even if they were totally unopposed. Shadowspawn can't use gateways. We've gotten used to Rand and the other channelers essentially telepoting his forces around, but a Shadowspawn army can't move like that. And you are correct that, given the number of channelers in and around Tar Valon, the number of Shadowspawn that could be brought through the Ways would not be very signifigant. Especially with how thoroughly Tar Valon is warded (yes I know some are failing, but they're being replaced too now that Alviarin is no longer Keeper).

 

Besides, none of that adresses the fact that the Shadow has more to gain by letting the Aes Sedai and Seanchan duke it out on their own. Given what Semirhage has surely reported on the Seanchan, the Shadow has no reason to think that Tuon will stop short of the total descruction of Tar Valon and the collaring of every Aes Sedai. Neither do we, actually, based on her actions.

 

Many people have pointed out (with varying degrees of accuracy) that the disjointed forces of Light probably have a numbers advantage in the channelers department. The Shadows efforts for the past several years have been directed at splintering and creating antagonism between these groups. Why would they give the Aes Sedai and Seanchan a reason to unite, by presenting themselves as a common enemy?

[Luckers]

Um .... if they dont use a Waygate, it will take that Shadowspawn army a month to travel from the Borderlands to Tar Valon, even if they were totally unopposed. Shadowspawn can't use gateways. We've gotten used to Rand and the other channelers essentially telepoting his forces around, but a Shadowspawn army can't move like that. And you are correct that, given the number of channelers in and around Tar Valon, the number of Shadowspawn that could be brought through the Ways would not be very signifigant. Especially with how thoroughly Tar Valon is warded (yes I know some are failing, but they're being replaced too now that Alviarin is no longer Keeper).

 

I'd say less then a month, but yes, it will take some time. Especially with Lan involved. During that time Egwene will be dealing with the Seanchan assault which im guessing will start about a week before the Shadowspawn army arrives.

 

Besides, none of that adresses the fact that the Shadow has more to gain by letting the Aes Sedai and Seanchan duke it out on their own. Given what Semirhage has surely reported on the Seanchan, the Shadow has no reason to think that Tuon will stop short of the total descruction of Tar Valon and the collaring of every Aes Sedai. Neither do we, actually, based on her actions.

 

If the Seanchan and the Aes Sedai are busy fighting each other, what better time then to attack Tar Valon. Withouth gateways getting into Tar Valon against even a remotely unified force is essentially impossible. It makes a whole lot of sense, especially if the assault is merely launched as a part of a wide-scale invasion. As it gets closer to Tar Valon, there is no reason the Forsaken wouldn't take advantage of the diverted attention of both sides.

 

Many people have pointed out (with varying degrees of accuracy) that the disjointed forces of Light probably have a numbers advantage in the channelers department. The Shadows efforts for the past several years have been directed at splintering and creating antagonism between these groups. Why would they give the Aes Sedai and Seanchan a reason to unite, by presenting themselves as a common enemy?

 

Actually its because of the devision that now would seem like a perfect time to attack. The Forsaken would have no reason to suspect the seanchan would join forces with the Aes Sedai, and if some sort of early battle forces the Black Ajah into the open the Forsaken might well panic. The fact remains that it would be better to attack Tar Valon in that state, then to allow one side or the other to gain control of the city.

[RobertAlexWillis]

The problem with that theory is that the attack itself would END the division. It would make more sense for the Shadow to let them finish, then attack the weakened victor, after they've done the maximum damage to each other.