Mat's Luck and Channeling

[Hybrid]

Two points: First, we don't see Perrin and Rand dice. Artur Hawkwing, on the other hand...

“Perhaps,” Moiraine said. “Perhaps not. No one knows anything about ta’veren as strong as Rand.” For just a moment she sounded vexed at not knowing. “Artur Hawkwing was the most strongly ta’veren of whom any writings remain. And Hawkwing was in no way as strong as Rand.”

“It is said,” Lan put in, “that there were times when people in the same room with Hawkwing spoke truth when they meant to lie, made decisions they had not even known they were contemplating. Times when every toss of the dice, every turn of the cards, went his way. But only times.”

"Every toss of the dice, every turn of the cards..." Sounds like Mat's luck to me, if weaker.

Then I stand corrected.  I will admit the possibility of Mat's luck being due to ta'veren.

 

Secondly, we don't know that every ta'veren affects the Pattern in the same way. If Mat's luck comes from being ta'veren, nothing says the other two ta'veren we know of would have the same luck -- though I will mention that they ARE both lucky. Just not as lucky as Mat.

That's the operative phrase, though.  Mat can feel his luck (a la dice-rolling-in-head), whereas the other two have nothing like it. 

 

I still prefer the dagger theory, or at least believe that the dagger has some effect on Mat's luck, whether that luck was caused naturally from birth, by the dagger, or part of the ta'veren aspect - Mat's pretty sure of the coincidence of the timing from memory.  As far as Mat's memories are concerned, IIRC, he only mentions gaps when it concerns Caemlyn (TDR, when he brings Elayne's letter) or other parts of the journey from Shadar Logoth (I think Domon's boat journey is mentioned), not earlier in his life.  ATM, I can't find quotes, but I'll try to do that soon.

[Mr. Dragon]

The dice rolling in Mat's head has nothing to do with his luck but represent decisions or incidents of great affect, if you can explain to me how a dagger can make you think you hear dice rolling in your mind (which is essentially what your saying) i'll give you a cookie.

[dholm]

That's the operative phrase, though.  Mat can feel his luck (a la dice-rolling-in-head), whereas the other two have nothing like it. 

Again, we don't know whether ta'veren effects should be the same for everyone.

 

I still prefer the dagger theory, or at least believe that the dagger has some effect on Mat's luck, whether that luck was caused naturally from birth, by the dagger, or part of the ta'veren aspect - Mat's pretty sure of the coincidence of the timing from memory.  As far as Mat's memories are concerned, IIRC, he only mentions gaps when it concerns Caemlyn (TDR, when he brings Elayne's letter) or other parts of the journey from Shadar Logoth (I think Domon's boat journey is mentioned), not earlier in his life.  ATM, I can't find quotes, but I'll try to do that soon.

Mat has lost stretches of his entire life; he has trouble recalling his sisters' faces, for example.

 

It's entirely possible that Mat's luck is a combination of several factors, including the dagger... but I just don't see why we should attribute it to the dagger. Until and unless we get proof that it is the source, I will stick to my feeling that it's a consequence of him being ta'veren.

[Mr Ares]

I am not ignoring evidence.

Yes, you are.

 

I gave it already.

No, you didn't. You claim that something very different to the other manifestations of ta'veren must be ta'veren. I claim that something unique to Mat is most likely due to something unique to Mat.

 

He is very clearly surprised that he cannot remember being as lucky as he is now back in the Two Rivers.

So? You still cannot show evidence of the contradiction you have imagined into being. He was lucky, then he got luckier. Unsurprisingly, this came as a bit of a surprise. His memories are not an issue on this matter.

 

As I said, how convenient for you that you don't have to explain it.

RJ not giving an explanation is convenient? Clearly we have different definitions. I don't see it as especially convenient.If RJ doesn't tell us why, all we can do is speculate. However, we should keep speculations in line with the evidence we have been given, which is that Mat got luckier after getting the dagger. Now, what would be convenient would be an RJ quote.

 

i really don't care what ficticious 'evidence' you have from the books.

Yeah, screw the books, what the hell does that RJ guy know about what's going on?

 

the dagger doesn't give luck, mat's innate ta'veren ability does.

There are no innate ta'veren abilities. Ta'veren are created when the Pattern needs them, not born.

 

for those of you who says that mat was not lucky before the dagger

That would be no-one then. He himself says he was lucky, then got luckier, then got luckier still.

 

but given how retarded you are to even begin to contemplate the ridiculous idea, i guess that is asking too much of you.

If only we could come up with ideas as logical as Rand's channeling throughout the first book being due to his meeting Lanfear in the second.

 

"Every toss of the dice' date=' every turn of the cards..." Sounds like Mat's luck to me, if weaker.[/quote']Not to me. Mat's luck is much weaker with games of cards, because it only affects random things and cards are rather less random than dice.

 

if you can explain to me how a dagger can make you think you hear dice rolling in your mind i'll give you a cookie.

Magic dagger. If you have another explanation for how a dagger can do all the other things this one can do, I'd like to hear it. It is not a normal dagger.

 

Now, Mat's luck, and the dice, are unique to him. Ta'veren isn't.

[dholm]

I am not ignoring evidence.

Yes, you are.

No. I don't. I deny it is evidence, and I dismiss it on those grounds. I do not ignore it.

 

I gave it already.

No, you didn't. You claim that something very different to the other manifestations of ta'veren must be ta'veren. I claim that something unique to Mat is most likely due to something unique to Mat.

I have said before that we do not know whether ta'veren effects are always the same, and that there is no reason to assume it. The fact that Perrin affects the world in one way does not mean that Mat should affect it in the same way.

 

He is very clearly surprised that he cannot remember being as lucky as he is now back in the Two Rivers.

So? You still cannot show evidence of the contradiction you have imagined into being. He was lucky, then he got luckier. Unsurprisingly, this came as a bit of a surprise. His memories are not an issue on this matter.

You're looking at it backwards. He is not surprised at his current luck. He is surprised that his luck, prior to leaving the Two Rivers, was worse than it is now. If that does not imply that something's wrong with his memories...

 

As I said, how convenient for you that you don't have to explain it.

RJ not giving an explanation is convenient? Clearly we have different definitions. I don't see it as especially convenient.If RJ doesn't tell us why, all we can do is speculate. However, we should keep speculations in line with the evidence we have been given, which is that Mat got luckier after getting the dagger. Now, what would be convenient would be an RJ quote.

Speculations should also be logical. Assuming the dagger somehow made Mat luckier, then made him even luckier when he was broken of the link, is not logical. It doesn't make sense.

 

"Every toss of the dice' date=' every turn of the cards..." Sounds like Mat's luck to me, if weaker.[/quote']Not to me. Mat's luck is much weaker with games of cards, because it only affects random things and cards are rather less random than dice.

Except it does affect cards -- Mat wins more often than not at cards. It's just that he hardly ever loses at dice. I'm certain that every once in a while, "every turn of the cards" will have gone in Mat's favor as well.

[Mr. Dragon]

Magic dagger. If you have another explanation for how a dagger can do all the other things this one can do, I'd like to hear it. It is not a normal dagger.

The way the dagger is different is the point though, it has the taint from Aridhol, which has never been shown to have anything to do with chance. Just because it has some odd properties doesn't mean you can lay everything at it's feet.

 

[Mr Ares]

No. I don't. I deny it is evidence, and I dismiss it on those grounds. I do not ignore it.

Sticking your fingers in you ears and saying "la la la, it's not evidence" is ignoring it.

 

You're looking at it backwards. He is not surprised at his current luck. He is surprised that his luck, prior to leaving the Two Rivers, was worse than it is now. If that does not imply that something's wrong with his memories...

He is surprised at the difference in his luck, which is exactly what you'd expect. "Hey, I know I was always lucky, but I never used to be as lucky as I have been since getting this dagger. What's up with that?" And there is no implied problem with his memories here. He can remember his luck before, and his luck now, and he sees a difference, which surprises him. There is no contradiction there, nor anything to support your view.

 

Speculations should also be logical.

This one is.

 

Except it does affect cards

That's what I said. But it doesn't affect cards to the same extent as it does dice, because it only affects random things. The less random, the less his luck is able to help, so cards would depend on how well shuffled they were. It would be useless in a game of stones. Ta'veren, on the other hand, would be able to affect people's reactions, and as such might be useful in a game of stones - although it could twist the actions of either player, and in either direction.

 

which has never been shown to have anything to do with chance.

Except for both Mat and Fain being lucky. Curious, that. And I do not lay everything at its feet, only the things which it played some part in. We know that Mat picked up the dagger and his luck improved. Then he was Healed and it improved again. Two clear changes to his luck, both in line with the dagger. It was the dagger. Why is unknown, because RJ didn't see fit to tell us. It might have unleashed potential innate in Mat, for example. But it was involved somehow. That is a fact.

 

Now, ta'veren is part of the Pattern's corrective mechanism. It twists the threads of the Pattern to draw it back onto the path it was supposed to be on. It affects chance both positively and negatively, and even neutrally, for the ta'veren. It changes things like peoples reactions, as well as other things, like the toss of a dice. In that, there is a measure of overlap with Mat's luck, but they are not the same. Maat's luck affects himself, and positively, and does so only on random things, not matters of concious choice. Mat's luck would never cause someone to change their mind about what they were going to ay by being in Mat's presence. Ta'veren could. So while ta'veren can produce different effects, Mat's luck is more specific and more limited, and works in his favour. Therefore, it is not ta'veren.

[dholm]

No. I don't. I deny it is evidence, and I dismiss it on those grounds. I do not ignore it.

Sticking your fingers in you ears and saying "la la la, it's not evidence" is ignoring it.

Good thing I do not do that, then.

 

You're looking at it backwards. He is not surprised at his current luck. He is surprised that his luck, prior to leaving the Two Rivers, was worse than it is now. If that does not imply that something's wrong with his memories...

He is surprised at the difference in his luck, which is exactly what you'd expect. "Hey, I know I was always lucky, but I never used to be as lucky as I have been since getting this dagger. What's up with that?" And there is no implied problem with his memories here. He can remember his luck before, and his luck now, and he sees a difference, which surprises him. There is no contradiction there, nor anything to support your view.

People who have experienced an increase in something do not think in terms of, "Wow, I'm surprised that I didn't have this much before!" unless they have gotten used to it over an extended period. Mat thinks of his luck in those terms immediately after.

 

Speculations should also be logical.

This one is.

There is only a tenuous connection between the dagger and chance: one of timing. Any other "connection" is either circumstantial -- such as Isam's claim that Fain 'has more luck than the White Tower' -- or unreliable.

 

Except it does affect cards

That's what I said. But it doesn't affect cards to the same extent as it does dice, because it only affects random things. The less random, the less his luck is able to help, so cards would depend on how well shuffled they were. It would be useless in a game of stones. Ta'veren, on the other hand, would be able to affect people's reactions, and as such might be useful in a game of stones - although it could twist the actions of either player, and in either direction.

It really doesn't matter -- we do not know whether ta'veren all affect the Pattern equally. Ta'veren could also simply be the catalyst of Mat's luck. Like you claim the dagger is.

[Mr Ares]

Good thing I do not do that, then.

It's pretty much exactly what you're doing.

 

People who have experienced an increase in something do not think in terms of, "Wow, I'm surprised that I didn't have this much before!" unless they have gotten used to it over an extended period. Mat thinks of his luck in those terms immediately after.

Mat remembers his luck. It is that simple. He remembers how lucky he was, and knows how lucky he is now, and is surprised by the difference. There is no problem seen in his memories here.

 

There is only a tenuous connection between the dagger and chance: one of timing.

And not even that for any other theory.

 

And it is not ta'veren. We can see that. It's effects are different, more specific, more limited, and with a limited focus.

[Derfenrirwolv]

Lets try to look at all the possibilities, hypothesize on their expected results, and see which expected results best meet what we see in the books.

 

The dagger

 

If the dagger caused Mats luck

 

1) His luck should start when he gets the dagger or soon afterwords

 

2) His luck could grow the longer he has the dagger. It should either remain constant after he looses it, cease altogether or slowly decline.

 

3) Anyone else obtaining the dagger should get equally lucky.

 

 

1 is... iffy. He gets the dagger in the middle of book 1, and has no luck mentioned until the start of book 2. At the start of book 3 Hes still lucky. Its possible the dagger triggered his luck but...

 

2) His luck doesn't correlate to anything having to do with the dagger. He doesn't seem luckier when he has it, he doesn't get luckier the longer he has it, his luck doesn't vanish when he looses it, and his biggest moment of luck was in fact, right after loosing it.

 

3) Fain doesn't apparently become lucky when he acquires it.

 

Mats luck ebbs and flows completely without regard to whether the dagger is there or not. I think that makes it unlikely to be the cause.  

 

 

Ta'veren

 

Mat is nowhere near as strong a ta'veren as rand. Rand has been a stronger Ta'veren from day 1, but mats been influencing card games longer than Rand's been making lotto numbers come out 666. Rand also affects card games just by being in the room, mat only affects the outcome for himself. In short, Rand affects chance. Mat is lucky. The difference is control. Rand makes WEIRD things happen all around him. Mat makes GOOD things happen to himself.

 

 

Saidar powered luck battery:

 

1)His luck should be proportional to how much one power is directed at him.

 

2)It should fade as its used up/time passes

 

3) Not channeling at him should reduce his luck.

 

 

1) Mats luck in Emonds field wasn't remarkable. He got lucky around the start of book 2 (when moraine was channeling at him to heal him). It was insane after he was healed from the link with the dagger (13 aes sedai in a circle with the towers most powerfull angreal) When he and thom went downriver, it was good enough to roll 6 6's to beat 6 6's and a 5. There was no ta'veren reason for this to happen. The pattern would have been the same with mat cauthon sleeping in a ditch for a night.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[dholm]

There's no way Mat's luck is caused by channeling. He has a channeling nullifying ter'angreal, for heaven's sake.

[Phariah]

ok so how do u explain his luck further in the books when he has the ter'angreal that stops channeling at him and the fact he avoids Aes Sedai even for healing , he gets stitched up no channeling healing

and yet he is still lucky, nope channelling is not it

[Derfenrirwolv]

ok so how do u explain his luck further in the books when he has the ter'angreal that stops channeling at him and the fact he avoids Aes Sedai even for healing , he gets stitched up no channeling healing

and yet he is still lucky, nope channelling is not it

 

His luck has been greatly reduced since then. He's now just a regular "lucky guy", not an insanely lucky guy. He lost 100 gold crowns to Taleasan, and has been making money betting on horse races (which he's doing with skill, not luck) Whens the last time he went on a gambling bender? Before he got the foxhead. 

[dholm]

Completely and utterly wrong. Mat gets the foxhead in TSR, which is way before he ever assembles Shen an Calhar -- y'know, his private army, that he pays through his gambling winnings. He gambles with the Aiel all the way from Rhuidean to Alcair Dal to the Jangai Pass and wins enough that they refuse to dice or even play cards with him.

 

There is no way his luck is connected to channeling.

[Phariah]

the reason he bets on the horses is because they refuse to play at cards or dice with Mat anymore because he wins so much an want a fair chance to win some back from him.

LoC pages 140-141 "We thought horses,burn my soul, but your luck holds hard with battle and cards.And dice,but in horse racing, its all horse."

 

[Mr Ares]

If the dagger caused Mats luck

Which it does.

 

1) His luck should start when he gets the dagger or soon afterwords

Which we are explicitly told it does.

 

2) His luck could grow the longer he has the dagger. It should either remain constant after he looses it, cease altogether or slowly decline.

There are other options.

 

3) Anyone else obtaining the dagger should get equally lucky.

Not so.We do not know if the effect would be the same on everyone. And while Fain is referenced as lucky, he also displays a multitude of powers that have emerged since his encounter with Mordeth.

 

He got lucky

When he picked up the dagger. We are told that. It was the dagger. End of argument.

 

His luck has been greatly reduced since then.

No, it hasn't. His luck only affects random things, and comes in waves, but despite that he remains insanely lucky.

[Durinax]

3) Anyone else obtaining the dagger should get equally lucky.

Not so.We do not know if the effect would be the same on everyone. And while Fain is referenced as lucky, he also displays a multitude of powers that have emerged since his encounter with Mordeth.

If the dagger effects could effect others differently then why cant taveren have differing effects as well

[Hybrid]

If the dagger effects could effect others differently then why cant taveren have differing effects as well

What Mr Ares is proposing is that Fain may not get as lucky as Mat.  Similarly, ta'veren have the same effect, but to a different degree.

 

We have a running definition for ta'veren and no reason to suspect that some ta'veren are different other than some people's conviction that Mat's luck is based on only the ta'veren effect.  Furthermore, Mat would be the only ta'veren who has a constant personal beneficial altering of chance.  This runs contrary to our knowledge of how ta'veren and the Pattern work - we know that the Pattern has to have balance in it.  While it is possible that Mat's luck is due to his ta'veren status (and I emphasize possible), I don't find it likely - yet. 

 

On the other hand, we don't have a running explanation as to the dagger's powers, if it in fact has any.  What we do have is Mat conclusively associating incidents with the dagger to increases in his luck.  Whether the dagger is the source of his luck or whether it merely amplifies or alters his luck due to him being naturally lucky or ta'veren or whether Mat is completely mistaken, I don't know.  But as of now, I'm going to stick to Mat's ideas as the only textual evidence there is.

[Durinax]

I cant believe that a dagger does most his luck. It is tainted to make the person more suspicious and paranoid towards others. IF the dagger did 'pick' up some ability to drastically alter chance for whomever has held it for a while would the effect not be stronger the longer a person holds it/fade the longer a person is from it.

 

also we have no proof that all ta'veren effects are the same since the pattern never needs the same thing all the time, and with 3 ta'veren produced from the same area at the same time it makes sense that their effects would be different since all 3 would effect something the pattern needs and all 3 would be different

 

[Hybrid]

I cant believe that a dagger does most his luck. It is tainted to make the person more suspicious and paranoid towards others.

Because it is from Shadar Logoth.  A pebble from Shadar Logoth would have the same effect.  That doesn't change the fact that it's still a pebble.

 

IF the dagger did 'pick' up some ability to drastically alter chance for whomever has held it for a while would the effect not be stronger the longer a person holds it/fade the longer a person is from it.

Who said anything about picking up that ability?  And what are you basing this information on?

 

also we have no proof that all ta'veren effects are the same since the pattern never needs the same thing all the time, and with 3 ta'veren produced from the same area at the same time it makes sense that their effects would be different since all 3 would effect something the pattern needs and all 3 would be different

Also we have no proof that all ta'veren effects are different.  In fact, we have reason to believe the exact opposite - that all ta'veren carry out what the Pattern needs, not what that ta'veren personally needs.  Unless you are proposing that what benefits the Pattern most is Mat being rich.  Which is a ludicrous claim.

[Mr. Dragon]

I cant believe that a dagger does most his luck. It is tainted to make the person more suspicious and paranoid towards others.

Because it is from Shadar Logoth.  A pebble from Shadar Logoth would have the same effect.  That doesn't change the fact that it's still a pebble.

 

 

You have not addressed why the taint carried by the object would possible make you lucky, so far as we know neither Mordeth nor the people of Aridhol were lucky or posessed an item that did. We only know of two types of objects that can affect chance, 1. Ter'angeral 2. Ta'veren

 

The dagger is not a ter'angeral and as the case for a third catagory in my opinion hasn't been made, the only reasonable and logical reason for Mat's luck is his being ta'veren.

[Durinax]

Quote

also we have no proof that all ta'veren effects are the same since the pattern never needs the same thing all the time, and with 3 ta'veren produced from the same area at the same time it makes sense that their effects would be different since all 3 would effect something the pattern needs and all 3 would be different

 

Also we have no proof that all ta'veren effects are different.  In fact, we have reason to believe the exact opposite - that all ta'veren carry out what the Pattern needs, not what that ta'veren personally needs.  Unless you are proposing that what benefits the Pattern most is Mat being rich.  Which is a ludicrous claim.

so your saying that the pattern needs the exact same thing so much that all 3 taveren effects are exactly the same? so perrin being able to convince a bunch of people to abandon their land when they absolutely wouldnt before, or rand's crazy randomness, or mat's luck (both battle, and gambling) are the exact same?

[Hybrid]

You have not addressed why the taint carried by the object would possible make you lucky

I haven't because I'm not saying that.  I'm simply saying that Mat conclusively links his luck with the dagger and that the dagger might have had a different purpose before it became tainted.  Not the most airtight theory, I admit, but I think it's the best.  Ta'veren is linked to chance, but not in the way that Mat's luck is.  To attribute Mat's luck to ta'veren, you'd have to rewrite the definition of ta'veren.  That's what I've been saying over and over and over again.  If I had to choose between a theory that depends on an unknown and a theory that depends on a contradiction, I'd choose the former.

 

so your saying that the pattern needs the exact same thing so much that all 3 taveren effects are exactly the same? so perrin being able to convince a bunch of people to abandon their land when they absolutely wouldnt before, or rand's crazy randomness, or mat's luck (both battle, and gambling) are the exact same?

They are all the same.  Perrin, Rand, and Mat have all managed to sway people's decisions with no further incentive but their presence.  Perrin's leadership of the Two Rivers, Rand's meeting with the Sea Folk, Mat's meeting with the Sea Folk are a few examples.  Rand, as the stronger ta'veren, also causes random effects in his presence occasionally.  Mat and Perrin are not nearly as strong as him and don't have the same effect, as far as I can recall.

[dholm]

It isn't a contradiction.

[Telzen]

I cant believe that a dagger does most his luck. It is tainted to make the person more suspicious and paranoid towards others.

Because it is from Shadar Logoth.  A pebble from Shadar Logoth would have the same effect.  That doesn't change the fact that it's still a pebble.

 

 

You have not addressed why the taint carried by the object would possible make you lucky, so far as we know neither Mordeth nor the people of Aridhol were lucky or posessed an item that did. We only know of two types of objects that can affect chance, 1. Ter'angeral 2. Ta'veren

 

The dagger is not a ter'angeral and as the case for a third catagory in my opinion hasn't been made, the only reasonable and logical reason for Mat's luck is his being ta'veren.

 

The dagger may also permanently unlock ones innate abilities. I doubt anyone has ever taken something from there so there would be no knowledge of it. The negative effects of the dagger could have been holding down Mats new luck. So once he was cured of the negative effect it his luck would have jumped up. It really doesn't matter. But it is a fact that Rand and Perrin don't show the same luck so it can't be ta'veren.