Shields

[Dunedain Fal]

No it was a complete victory for Rand.  Rand just didn't know it.  He totally decimated the Seanchan forces while suffering moderate loss.  If he had actually remained in the field longer, he would have seen the Seanchan retreating all the way back to Ebou Dar.

 

Besides the Legion were doing well without any Ashaman.  Look at Weiromon and his forces and Lady Anaiyella's forces.  They were not doing well without the aid of Ashaman.

[Durinax]

I could see crossbow cranks being adopted by the legion. Distance does not really matter anymore and Matt is gonna tell Rand about them and the hands improvements since the last time they met (not cause Mat is 'reporting' its just that like a good general in a coalition of sorts he knows that information must be kept flowing between parts)

[Muad Cheade]

No it was a complete victory for Rand.  Rand just didn't know it.  He totally decimated the Seanchan forces while suffering moderate loss.  If he had actually remained in the field longer, he would have seen the Seanchan retreating all the way back to Ebou Dar.

 

Besides the Legion were doing well without any Ashaman.  Look at Weiromon and his forces and Lady Anaiyella's forces.  They were not doing well without the aid of Ashaman.

 

That's wrong. If Rand would have continued, he would've destroyed his own army. The battle was the definition of Pyrrhic victory: each side achieved what they wanted (the Seanchan to stop Rand's march, Rand to strike a preemptive blow) but each side lost so many men that they believed the other had won and they had lost. I'm also sure if Bashere, a Great Captain, and Rand and Gregorin both capable ones believe they lost, then it was most likely so. Also, in later books we see that the Seanchan have put an army of over 100,000 on he Altara/Illian border so I'm not sure Rand could have taken and held Ebou Dar with the few thousand he brought.

 

The entire force Rand brought were assisted by Asha'man. The Asha'man's ability to Travel short distances without "learning" the area was  instrumental in the early successes. In tPoD, every group was accompanied by Asha'man. The reason Rand was nearly killed was due to the fact the Wieramon took his forces from Rand's flank which opened him up for attack. The Asha'man were the key cog in the battle(s).

 

I could see crossbow cranks being adopted by the legion. Distance does not really matter anymore and Matt is gonna tell Rand about them and the hands improvements since the last time they met (not cause Mat is 'reporting' its just that like a good general in a coalition of sorts he knows that information must be kept flowing between parts)

 

Yes...but there is not way for Mat or the Band to contact Rand or the Legion. They are separated by a long distance with neither knowing exactly where the other is. Mat also doesn't have any Aes Sedai or Asha'man who could take him to Rand by traveling even if he knew where he was. What I was saying earlier was that it will be a while for knowledge of the crossbow cranks and dragons to spread.

[Mr Ares]

That's wrong. If Rand would have continued, he would've destroyed his own army.

Correct. He was losing, until he unleashed Callandor, and suffered such losses from that that he was in no position to continue the campaign. Fortunately, he destroyed the Seanchan army as well.

[Builder]

 

Yes...but there is not way for Mat or the Band to contact Rand or the Legion. They are separated by a long distance with neither knowing exactly where the other is. Mat also doesn't have any Aes Sedai or Asha'man who could take him to Rand by traveling even if he knew where he was. What I was saying earlier was that it will be a while for knowledge of the crossbow cranks and dragons to spread.

 

I think the crossbow cranks (could you please explain how it works?) and the dragons will be more widespread after TG. I don't think there is simply enough time to make artillery companies. These things will be used more and more later on after the initial figthings, and after TG. I think RJ mentioned that many battles will be fought after TG, so I assume that the trollocs and other Shadowspawn will get to know the dragons and crossbow cranks a lot better after TG. The cannons and cranks (not completely sure what it is) will also most probably be improved and everything. War and technology are quite exctiting things don't you agree guys?

[Durinax]

cranks are attached to the crossbow and are used to draw the bowstring back faster than just pulling it by hand. I imagine it as a gear type thing

[Mr Ares]

War and technology are quite exctiting things don't you agree guys?

Ever been in a war? If not, then you don't really have an opinion on how exciting they are.

[Builder]

War and technology are quite exctiting things don't you agree guys?

Ever been in a war? If not, then you don't really have an opinion on how exciting they are.

 

Please don't act like you are so old and wise. Besides, I was saying how war and technology affect each other.

[Mcpatrick]

Wars are periods of boredom mixed with periods of excitement, mixed with periods of dying.

 

And wars have always been the time in which the most technological advancement has come. Its an amazing incentive  :(

[Dunedain Fal]

That's wrong. If Rand would have continued, he would've destroyed his own army.

Correct. He was losing, until he unleashed Callandor, and suffered such losses from that that he was in no position to continue the campaign. Fortunately, he destroyed the Seanchan army as well.

 

No he was in a position to continue his march.  He just needed to augment his small force with the bigger force that was left behind in Illian.  However Seachan was not.  They had devoted the entire available forces at their disposal against Rand's forces and were slaughtered.  It was only by the saving grace that Rand decided to retreat rather than reinforcing his army and continuing his march towards Ebou Dar.  This whole thing never made sense to me.  He could have put 100,000 soldiers immediately outside of Ebou Dar after decimating the Seanchan forces.  However, it would mess up RJ's plans for Mat and Tuon since he would have no background to start the story.  So it was pretty much a weak plot device to have Rand retreat when he had much larger forces available when Seachan didn't.

[Builder]

Or maybe Rand didn't know how many more Seanchan there were, and didn't want to take chances?

[Muad Cheade]

War and technology are quite exctiting things don't you agree guys?

Ever been in a war? If not, then you don't really have an opinion on how exciting they are.

 

Please don't act like you are so old and wise. Besides, I was saying how war and technology affect each other.

 

Pindar and later Erasmus said "Dulce bellum inexpertis." that's Latin for "war is sweet to those who have not experienced it." Yes, war is a very terrible thing, but as an "amatuer" military historian the evolution of technology and strategy is unique and interesting.

 

Back on topic.

 

That's wrong. If Rand would have continued, he would've destroyed his own army.

Correct. He was losing, until he unleashed Callandor, and suffered such losses from that that he was in no position to continue the campaign. Fortunately, he destroyed the Seanchan army as well.

 

No he was in a position to continue his march.  He just needed to augment his small force with the bigger force that was left behind in Illian.  However Seachan was not.  They had devoted the entire available forces at their disposal against Rand's forces and were slaughtered.  It was only by the saving grace that Rand decided to retreat rather than reinforcing his army and continuing his march towards Ebou Dar.  This whole thing never made sense to me.  He could have put 100,000 soldiers immediately outside of Ebou Dar after decimating the Seanchan forces.  However, it would mess up RJ's plans for Mat and Tuon since he would have no background to start the story.  So it was pretty much a weak plot device to have Rand retreat when he had much larger forces available when Seachan didn't.

 

Actually, the force Rand brought was the only one he had/needed for the battle against the Seanchan according to Bashere's plan. The rest of the force in Illian were sent to hunt down bandits and the Shaido. They were not needed nor would Rand be able to find or bring them to battle the Seanchan. The Seanchan were only using the advance force to fight Rand. They still had tens of thousands securing Altara and the region the control not to mention the Taraboners/Altarans/Amadacians who joined their armies. Even if Rand had taken Ebou Dar, there was no way he could hold it with tens of thousands of Seanchan troops around him.rand would have destroyed his own forces if he continued the battle. Callandor is flawed and he was destroying both armies.

 

Once again, the Bashere's plan was to simply stop the Seanchan from advancing not to utterly defeat them and throw them back to the sea. That's why Rand's army was made up the way it was and was small. Having a huge army in wooded terrain is not effective. Having a smaller, mobile force that can Travel quickly (due to Asha'man) in the wooded terrain is more effective and lethal. Bashere's a military genius as you can see and that is why they defeated the Seanchan at the beginning. If Rand had listened to Bashere and Gregorin and gone home, he would not have been defeated on the march to Ebou Dar. The army he had was not created for that. Also, remember, later on, the Seanchan have a large army (over 100,000) getting ready to invade Illian with Rand having one of similar size on the other side of the border. Very much even.

[Mr Ares]

Please don't act like you are so old and wise. Besides, I was saying how war and technology affect each other.

I wasn't. I was just pointing out that the only real way to decide how exciting it really is is to do it. They might be interesting to learn about, but that is a little bit different.

 

No he was in a position to continue his march. He just needed to augment his small force with the bigger force that was left behind in Illian. However Seachan was not. They had devoted the entire available forces at their disposal against Rand's forces and were slaughtered. It was only by the saving grace that Rand decided to retreat rather than reinforcing his army and continuing his march towards Ebou Dar.

Rand's armies were losing, which was why he used Callandor, which he was reluctant to do. When he did so, he crippled the army he already had in the field, in morale as well as numbers. While fighting a numerically larger enemy to begin with, when he doesn't know how hurt they were by his little incident. When he doesn't know how able to reinforce they are. When even if he marched on Ebou Dar, he still wouldn't achieve his goal of throwing the Seanchan back into the sea as at Falme, because they were still established in Tarabon and Amadicia, so that would simply have been the start of a long campaign, in which the Seanchan would have been able to reinforce beyond that first army he defeated. He wasn't in any position to continue after that, not with any prospect of a quick victory. Just lengthy, drawn out, costly conflict. Precisely what he doesn't want, to squander his troops against the Seanchan to the benefit of the Shadow.

This whole thing never made sense to me. He could have put 100,000 soldiers immediately outside of Ebou Dar after decimating the Seanchan forces. However, it would mess up RJ's plans for Mat and Tuon since he would have no background to start the story. So it was pretty much a weak plot device to have Rand retreat when he had much larger forces available when Seachan didn't.

What about lines of supply and communication? Travelling, while useful, is not the be all and end all of warfare. What if the Seancahn learnt how to block Gateways? In the short term, even if he did drop his army on Ebou Dar, what would be achieved by this? He would have an army at Ebou Dar. So what? He liberates the city, but the Seanchan will still fight back. He didn't just want to stop the current threaty of invasion, he wanted to deliver a final devastating victory, throw the Seanchan back into the sea, and that was not an option available to him. They would have fought back and he would have to retreat from the city, in all probability.

 

He really was in no position to do anything other than retreat at that point, and he should have taken his victory and called it a day before that.

[Dunedain Fal]

Mr. Ares,

 

He had 5,000 soldiers with roughly around 30 to 35 Ashaman remaining after the initial battles with Seanchan with him against a 50,000 force with 50 damanes.  That was after he crushed a total combined force of 50,000 to 60,000 Seanchan forces in that series of battles.  The Return hasn't come yet to Ebou Dar, meaning that Suroth practically emptied the city of all Seanchan forces in order to meet Rand and his 5,000 soldiers.

 

If I were Rand, I would station spies in and out of Ebou Dar and report on the movement of the forces and note down the position of the forces and the strength thereof.  Mat's battles in KoD is proof of how that information can be effective.  With 8,000 soldiers and no Ashaman, Mat defeated a total force of 50,000 soldiers (I got that number from Luckers' analysis of the KoD battles).

 

If Rand had stationed spies and established a means of communication which is fairly easy with gateways since Seanchan do not have any means of detecting saidin, only saidar with damanes, he could set up a surprise raid aka Illian style in the PoD.  Seanchan were totally unawared of how Rand took over Illian until weeks later.

 

So, Ebou Dar was wide open and for the taking.  Rand just didn't know it.  Besides, the capture of Ebou Dar would totally negate Seanchan's flanking move from the south and Seanchan would be forced to come out in only one direction, from the west in Amadicia and Tarabon and the length of the supplies would even stretch out the Seanchan forces, making them more vulnerable.

 

Taking Ebou Dar was a strategic necessity to be obtained at all cost because he could have secured Illian and Murandy by denying Seanchan any foothold from the south.

[Durinax]

If I where rand I would strike at where they first landed destroying all supplies from Seanchan and capturing their leaders. Then using precision strikes at main supply routes to strike fear into the Seanchan armies I would follow their army movements and use mats tactics of ambushes with crossbow to widdle their forces down

[Mr Ares]

He had 5,000 soldiers with roughly around 30 to 35 Ashaman remaining after the initial battles with Seanchan with him against a 50,000 force with 50 damanes.

And after all those battles, after he killed a good part of his own army, given that he doesn't have any reinforcements to hand, how many soldiers does he have left? Enough to take Ebou Dar? Possibly, even in spite of their demoralised state. Enough to hold it? No. Retaking the city would thus be an empty gesture, undermined when he is forced to retreat in the face of a renewed Seanchan offensive. Traveling was the big advantage they had in their campaign, but that would be undermined by taking Ebou Dar, as their valuable front line soldiers, their Asha'man, are forced into positions of resupply. Logistics work. And making Gateways is a tiring business. So you wear out the very soldiers who give you your advantage keeping your lines of communication and supply open, and not doing the work that made them valuable in the first place. You get tied down, in position, unable to do the hit and run attacks that proved so effective in the past.

 

So, Ebou Dar was wide open and for the taking.

For the taking, but not for the holding. He would be forced to evacuate as soon as the Seanchan returned in force. 

 

Taking Ebou Dar was a strategic necessity to be obtained at all cost because he could have secured Illian and Murandy by denying Seanchan any foothold from the south.

But he couldn't hold Ebou Dar, and therefore could not deny the Seanchan the foothold in the south. In fact, he would be left open, with them able to surround him and cut him off with only Traveling as a means of retreat. By pressing on, he wouldn't be able to guarantee anything except either having to retreat or face destruction.

[Builder]

Well maybe he could have only made a raid on Ebou dar. A lot more effective and he wouldn't be bogged down trying to hold the city, but what done is done and we can't change it.

[Mr Ares]

What would he gain through a raid?

[Durinax]

he would actually lose alot more in a raid than he would gain. The people would seek protection from the Seanchan, putting the people firmly in their grasp

[Dunedain Fal]

He had 5,000 soldiers with roughly around 30 to 35 Ashaman remaining after the initial battles with Seanchan with him against a 50,000 force with 50 damanes.

And after all those battles, after he killed a good part of his own army, given that he doesn't have any reinforcements to hand, how many soldiers does he have left? Enough to take Ebou Dar?

 

That huge camp of the Legion of Dragons he has in Andor?  What about his Aiel forces? The remainder of the Illian, Tairen, and Cairhenin forces he purposely left in the vicinity outside of the city of Illian?

 

Logistics would not be a problem because once he secured Ebou Dar, he could reinforce it from Tear using Seafolk ships that were available in Illian and Tear.  Moreover, he could have freed the Seafolk in Ebou Dar and the captured ships and not only that, he could use captured Seanchan supplies sitting in the harbour.

[Builder]

What would he gain through a raid?

 

Dude, hit and run man.

[Mr Ares]

That huge camp of the Legion of Dragons he has in Andor? What about his Aiel forces? The remainder of the Illian, Tairen, and Cairhenin forces he purposely left in the vicinity outside of the city of Illian?

None of them with him at the present time, none ready to join him and reinforce Altara at present, many needing to be committed on other fronts. He has no-one with him and no-one ready to join him, in other words. What of the Shaido? What of the Shadow? Rebels in the countries he holds?

 

Logistics would not be a problem because once he secured Ebou Dar, he could reinforce it from Tear using Seafolk ships that were available in Illian and Tear.

If it wasn't for the fact the Seancahn control the seas. You have yet to present any reason why a strike at Ebou Dar was a good idea, and why the risk is worth the cost.

[Dunedain Fal]

He could have pulled back and regroup and get those reinforcements.  You are trying to make it harder than it should be.

 

The Seanchan do not control the seas.  If they did, they would have restricted the trade between Illian and other ports as well as Tear.  Moreover, Seafolk are a very powerful naval group.  If the Seanchan control the seas as you claim, then Seafolk cannot reinforce Arad Doman as Rand requested which is on the other side.

 

I told you before.  A strike at Ebou Dar was a strategic necessity because it would protect the southern flank and prevent the dagger at Illian coming from west.  It would have forced the Seanchan to stretch out its train of logistics even further thus making themselves very vulnerable to hit and run tactics as Rodel Ituldrade demonstrated.

[Mr Ares]

He could have pulled back and regroup and get those reinforcements.

Pulling back is exactly what he did.

 

The Seanchan do not control the seas.

An exaggeration, perhaps, but they are still a considerable presence and should be more than capable of blockading the harbour to deny Rand reinforcements by sea.

 

A strike at Ebou Dar was a strategic necessity because it would protect the southern flank and prevent the dagger at Illian coming from west. It would have forced the Seanchan to stretch out its train of logistics even further thus making themselves very vulnerable to hit and run tactics as Rodel Ituldrade demonstrated.

But they cannot hold Ebou Dar, so they wouldn't protect the southern flank.

[Dunedain Fal]

It is not necessary to hold Ebou Dar.  It is necessary to deny a staging area to Seanchan in the southern flank.  That way, Seanchan cannot bring reinforcements by the sea.

 

Seanchan are a powerful naval power but if they could have prevent trade between Tear and Illian, they would have done so.  The fact that Rand asked Seafolk to reinforce Arad Doman by sea and Seafolk said they can do it shows that Seanchan do not have control of the high seas.

 

Rand could have gone back as soon as possible when he got the reinforcements but he waited too long and now the Return has been commenced and Seanchan reinforcements have arrived.  He surrendered the momentum back to Seanchan and that is a huge strategic blunder.