Christmas Mafia

[Myndrunner]

On a dissect of Lor's last post, take a look at some key statements.....

 

The sad fact is that the lynch has been made based on nothing but hunches! We have no finder. We have at least four players whose level of activity has been suspicious, but they've all provided reasons for that. We have WIFOM'd the voting til it too is useless.

The chance of error is high. If we err, best to err on only one lynch at a time!

 

Ok, basically she is saying that we have been lynched Thorum and Catina because of hunches and not because either of them were acting scummish.  Does this make sense?  The only hunch kill that has been done so far has been when I had a hunch that Talya was scum...she was a scum symp, which is the same thing.  She also goes on to say that the chance of error is high and that if we err and all that, so why go after me if there is a likely chance I am telling the truth about being pro-town? 

 

Then, her next paragraph is....

Fail to realize it? How could they not realize it? Heck, they're counting on it!  You can't really expect me to believe that you think they're that unobservant. And why are you restating what I've already said?

So you can get in one last plug to the Healer? Why are you so anxious to get the Healer to protect you?  We can still win the game whether the Evils nk you or some other innocent, as long as we only lose one. Unless you're not an innocent after all. If you were an Evil, what better way to ensure your survival.  You claim the assassin role, knowing that the real assassin will not counter claim, and turn it into a vig role. The only danger is that the real assassin will target you during night. How best to avoid this? PLay with the innocents. Pretend to be their vigilante friend. Play on the Healer's pity and get him or her to protect you, while you kill off more innocents. Yes, a quick and easy game.

 

Ok, she is all over the place in this one, but there are some disturbing statements.  Why is she upset about me plugging to the Healer to heal me last night?  I, too, figured me to be the main target.  So why does Lore make that statement?  Then she goes on to speculate that I am evil and false claiming the role of the assassin.  If I false claimed to be the assasin, why wouldn't the assasin out me in the thread by now?  Again, if I were a solo win character, killing off innocents helps the mafia more than me....but again, I am innocent.

 

And then her final action before Barm ends the phase....

It makes as much sense as anything else in this mess.  [glow=red,2,300]unvote[/glow]  [glow=red,2,300]Mynd[/glow]

 

I'm going to bed. g'night.

 

I am less disturbed by her vote of me than by her reasons for unvoting.  When you take this entire post in context, you have to wonder what the motivation behind it is?  And the timing of this, right before Barmy ended the day, why unvote if her vote wasn't going to mean anything? I'm not calling mafia on her just yet, but we need to discuss this.

[MsDanya]

HOLY CRAP I'M ALIVE!!!

 

I really expected to die. >.>

 

[glow=red,2,300]Danya[/glow] since she was pushing for me really hard yesterday.

 

This far into the game, thats a really weak reason for voting Tigs. The reason I pushed for you yesterday was that I found you suspicious, your "i wont be bothered to be active in a game where I dont have a role" didnt strike me as very town-friendly at all. Also, you hardly bothered to defend yourself at all against my accusations. Did you perhaps know that since it wasnt likely you'd get lynched, you didnt see the need. Maybe because you have your mafiabuddies to back you up? hmm?

 

But I'm not going to persue that case anymore, I dont really have much to back it up with, other than your first post I "quoted" before, and then you posting basically the exact same excuse as Verbal with being in many games and so on. I could interpret it to you seeing that it was a valid excuse in Verbals case, but its still do very different reasons for being inactive, which one is it?

 

Ok, so I did persue it a little bit  :P I'm just a bit curious as to what excuse is the one we should believe in.

 

 

[Hybrid]

I'm majorly suspicious of you for changing the assassin kill target, Mynd.  I seem to remember you making this statement a little while back:

 

Hybrid, that is exactly my point to everyone.  Unless you all choose ME as the target, I will honor my oath and kill whome the majority votes for.  Like you said, it defeats the purpose if I'm gonna blow it off.  When I said earlier that I could just say screw it and vote Verbal, I was only making a point to Danya that it is actually quite anti-town to refuse to vote.  Ultimately it is my decision to honor this oath, but I am telling you all that I will.

 

Like you said, I will be the next lynch if I do not.  All I ask in return is that a certain Doctor do me a favor tonight in that the Mafia will be wanting to whack ME as much as we want them gone.  Make sense?

 

I am tempted to vote for you, but I have a better solution.  We can potentially solve this mystery by lynching [glow=red,2,300]Tigara[/glow].  Not only do you seem to be protecting him, but his reason for voting Danya is very weak.  Like cosmicpanda said, OMGUS this late in the game?  Not good.  This could be the last lynch of the game, so we need to be careful.  All it takes is an innocent voting for the wrong person, and the mafia can finish it off.

[Myndrunner]

My choosing to not kill anyone last night should not be seen as protecting Tigara but rather keeping us all from endgame.  I agree that his OMGUS vote and reasons for not being active are quite rubbish; however, there are three mafia and Tigara is all by his lonesome.  I haven't seen anyone coming to his defense or trying to sway us off voting to vig kill him. 

 

Hybrid, I'm a bit surprised that you cite that this is such a critical phase in the game for us, yet you are so quick to vote Tigara without further discussion.  Quite hastey if you ask me.  What is the rush all about?  We have plenty of time for debate.  Are you in a hurry to end this game?

[MsDanya]

My choosing to not kill anyone last night should not be seen as protecting Tigara but rather keeping us all from endgame.  I agree that his OMGUS vote and reasons for not being active are quite rubbish; however, there are three mafia and Tigara is all by his lonesome.  I haven't seen anyone coming to his defense or trying to sway us off voting to vig kill him. 

 

Hybrid, I'm a bit surprised that you cite that this is such a critical phase in the game for us, yet you are so quick to vote Tigara without further discussion.  Quite hastey if you ask me.  What is the rush all about?  We have plenty of time for debate.  Are you in a hurry to end this game?

 

 

Tigara might be all by his lonesome, but taht doesnt mean he doesnt have his Mafia buddies with him. There never was any grave danger for Tigara, just me voicing my opinions on his posts and voting him. CP voted him for a Vig kil, but thats about it. Or did we actually vote to vig-kill him? I have to go back and see, but letting it stand here for now. You Mynd, were very against lynching Tigara it seemed, which could be considered as protecting Tigara, but taht wouldnt be the case if you were either a town-friendly Vig or the Assassin solo-win that I still believe you are, unless you knew wether he was Mafia or not.. did that make sense? I read the sentence three times, and i'm not sure if it came out right..

 

However I do agree with your question about Hybrids quick vote. I believe that if Hybrids mafia, Tigara isnt, and vice versa. With Tigs inactiveness, that vote could hardly be an attempt at a Kivams Gambit, which I'm still convinced is very rarely used.

 

 

 

 

[Myndrunner]

There is a difference between not wanting to lynch Tigara because there are other, more scummish looking players to consider....and protecting him.  By your logic, you could say that anyone who didn't vote Tigara for the vig kill or lynch is protecting him.  There were three votes to vig kill Tigara, and yours was one of them if I recall. 

 

So then,are you saying that we should select to drink from the Hybrid Chalice or the Tigara Chalice, oh Dread Pirate Danya?  ;)

[MsDanya]

Thats true. What I was suggesting was the lack of arguments, not the lack of votes.

 

I'm still leaning towards the Tigara one. But I could just as easily switch to Hybrid if I give it enough thought. His vote was too rushed, and the fact that he's willing to vote Tigara to "solve a mystery", then saying we should be careful who to vote for because a possible lynching of an innocent will bring us to Endgame. So his vote was not only rushed, it was, by his arguments, really very unnecessary, merely a vote to see the results of the lynch, not to lynch a potential Mafia..

 

I'm agreeing more and more with myself, so i'm gonna place my vote on [glow=green,2,300]Hybrid [/glow]

[MsDanya]

And did I just mess up the votes? By what Barms said, we cant vote in the same color twice in a row... Tigara voted red, so did Hybrid, then i voted green.... Or it doenst matter cause Hybrid can just vote again in red... hmm, I dont know, and I dont really care, just wanted to point it out. lol

[Loreina]

I must have a different calendar than Barm's.  ???

I changed my vote because I really wanted the Healer to 'stay home' instead of protecting you. Think about it. You had sworn to Vig kill the person with the majority of votes. I assumed the Evils would believe you and would not target you. But if they targeted the Healer while she/he was unnecessarily protecting you, he/she would have died right? We couldn't take that chance. I needed to do something forceful.

For now I'll [glow=red,2,300]unvote[/glow]. You are either not an Evil OR you want the game to go on for your own dark reason, I haven't yet decided which. As you said, if we mistakenly lynch an innocent, we'll find out which you are. And, Mynd, we can't use the yellow voting thingy, per Barm's post.

 

Hybrid, your vote must be in green.  We have to alternate - read Barm's post. Tig's is red, so yours must be green to count, and mine must be red. The next vote will be green, etc. 

 

Verb,

Actually, I was hoping they would target you, along with the Healer

the Evils only get one vote per night. How could they target both?

 

Mynd,

Ok, basically she is saying that we have been lynched Thorum and Catina because of hunches and not because either of them were acting scummish.  Does this make sense?  The only hunch kill that has been done so far has been when I had a hunch that Talya was scum...

  why do you keep trying to reinterpret what I say? Am I not speaking English? I think people know what I'm saying.

 

So, you think you're the only one who can have a hunch? The great, the wonderful, the all-powerful Oz Mynd?  And we still have only your word that you were responsible for Talya's demise. As far as I'm concerned, you could've killed Vemy. And don't bother dredging up that broken toy stuff again.

 

And I am not "all over the place" in my reasoning.  :P  It was a logical piece of posting. Is it correct? Is that why you're so set on making people think it's "all over the place"?

 

Again, if I were a solo win character, killing off innocents helps the mafia more than me....

I don't really understand that, but for now I'll take it that it is so, and ponder it later.

 

I am less disturbed by her vote of me than by her reasons for unvoting.  When you take this entire post in context, you have to wonder what the motivation behind it is?  And the timing of this, right before Barmy ended the day, why unvote if her vote wasn't going to mean anything?

  I've explained all that. 

 

Hybrid, since Mynd was not targeted, the Evils must have approved of Tigs for the Vig kill. I am therefore not inclined to believe him Evil.

 

 

 

 

 

[Tigara]

Hybrid, since Mynd was not targeted, the Evils must have approved of Tigs for the Vig kill. I am therefore not inclined to believe him Evil.

 

 

Ohhhh, great point! ;D I'm thinking it's Hybrid now. [glow=red,2,300]Unvote[/glow] [glow=green,2,300]Hybrid[/glow]

 

BTW, I really like seeing my name pop up so often in your posts! ;D It's kinda fun to be talked about. :D *is weird*

[cosmicpanda]

Hybrid, since Mynd was not targeted, the Evils must have approved of Tigs for the Vig kill. I am therefore not inclined to believe him Evil.

 

:o Woah! Way to jump to conclusions!

 

Why would they have targeted Mynd if they didn't approve of Tig's kill?

[Myndrunner]

Lore, I took what Verbal said to mean that he was hoping that the Mafia and the Healer would both target me.  I have to agree with Cosmic Panda, I am not sure what you mean by that statement.  Tigs, you seem to understand it so perhaps you can translate it for the rest of us?

 

I'm fairly sure that my vig kill would have gone off last night if I was the mafia kill target or not.

 

Here is the remaining roster:

Myndrunner - Assasin, not mafia!

Cosmic Panda

Verbal32

Loreina

Tigara

Danya

Hybrid

 

7 players, 3 Mafia, 1 Healer, and 1 Assasin. It sucks we have lost so many innocents, but our odds of whacking a Mafia this round have grown considerably.  I would like to ask from everyone who they think the most likely combination of three mafia are.  Again, this is not a lynch vote but rather opinion. 

[Tigara]

Basically what I'm understanding Lore to say it that since the mafia did not try to kill Mynd, the assassin, they must have approved of him killing me. If I were a mafia, they would have killed Mynd so that I wouldn't die.

[Hybrid]

Interesting.  Well, I am the Healer, and I healed Mynd last night.  Hence only one kill.  Or do you really think the mafia would pass up a kill attempt?  I admit, I am still suspicious of Mynd, but I was not about to gamble with two possible innocents' lives with endgame on the line.  I would also appreciate it if you would take your votes off me.

 

I realize that my vote on Tigara was hasty, but I was suspicious of him and the fact that Mynd did not kill him as planned interesting.  Frankly, I find Tigara's vote for me even more suspicious.  And Loreina's logic is ridiculous.  How did she know the mafia did not try to kill Mynd?  That puts her back on my radar.

 

Oh yes, my mafia choices depend on whether Tigara flips innocent or mafia.

If Tigs is mafia, I'd put my money on Mynd and Loreina.

 

[glow=red,2,300]

Tigara[/glow]

[Hybrid]

I meant to say Tigara's vote for me and his reasoning was suspicious.  His vote for me by itself is not.  I actually really hope that Danya and Tigara are both mafia, because all it takes is for two people to bandwagon me and the game is over.

[Myndrunner]

*strokes mustaches*  This is getting very interesting....first, the proof that Lia's death was Mafia....

 

Its morning. You walk over to your table to do some work to find your latest toy sabotaged, and Lia's tools on your work table. Looking around you see that Liathiana is no longer amongst you. Apparently the reindeer had been quick to remove her.

 

Liathiana, a roleless innocent, is now dead. It is Day 3, Day ends on Monday Evening. With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

 

That should settle this business about the Mafia kill....they did choose Liathiana.  Again, I did not vig kill anyone because it could have been endgame if Tigara turned up innocent.  The Mafia chose not to kill me because they figured the healer would protect me, like Verbal suspected. 

 

Tigara, if I was night killed by the mafia my vigilate kill would have likely gone off as well if I had made a choice. 

 

Now then, with the healer out in the open waiving hello, let's take a our possibilities.  7 players remaining, 3 of them are mafia, 1 healer, 1 assasin, and 2 are normal roleless elves.  With Hybrid as the Healer and me as the Assasin, that leaves 5 players shrouded in mystery. 

 

The possible combinations of mafia then become:

 

Danya Lore Tigara

Danya Lore Verbal

Danya Lore Cosmic

Lore Tigara Verbal

Lore Tigara Cosmic

Lore Verbal Cosmic

Tigara Verbal Cosmic

Danya Tigara Verbal

Danya Tigara Cosmic

Danya Verbal Cosmic

 

One of the above combinations must be our Mafia Team. 

 

The two remaining innocents are in a unique position in that they know three of the remaining seven players alignments.  That leaves them with only 4 remaining mystery elves.  From there, they need only select which of those four remaining is the most likely mafia.....and vote to lynch them because the probability that they are mafia are quite strong.  We now have a 3/5 chance of lynching a mafia.  Follow me so far? 

 

So then, which of the above combinations can we elimenate? 

[Loreina]

I thought that if the Healer protected someone who'd been targeted as a night kill by the Mafia, then the Healer died instead of the targeted person. Is it not a sacrificial role? 

 

 

 

 

 

[Loreina]

Well, I can't find anything that says that, so I don't know why I had that stuck in my brain.  ::)

 

[Myndrunner]

I thought that if the Healer protected someone who'd been targeted as a night kill by the Mafia, then the Healer died instead of the targeted person. Is it not a sacrificial role? 

 

Traditionally, the Healer can choose each night one player to protect.  In some games they protect themselves as well while in others they only protect the player they choose.  I haven't played a game where they sacrifice themselves.  Have you played a lot of Mafia games with that kind of role or something?

 

Here is the thing....this post kinda leads me to think Loreina is innocent.  Here is why....her mafia buddies would have corrected her pretty quick, I think.  Yes, her logic is a bit flawed, but if she was mafia, she likely would have mentioned this to her mafia team and they would have corrected her.  So....I kinda think she's innocent.

 

By that rationale, that elimenates some possible combinations...leaving us with the following:

 

Tigara  Verbal  Cosmic

Danya  Tigara  Verbal

Danya  Tigara  Cosmic

Danya  Verbal  Cosmic

 

The playing field is beginning to get narrowed down quite a bit.  Time to hear from Verbal, Danya, Tigara, and Cosmic Panda on their thoughts about who could be the Mafia Team. 

 

[Loreina]

Can it be that simple? I'm a roleless innocent, but my name was on there 6 times as evil and only four as innocent. That didn't seem right to me.

And what if the Healer claim is a fake one? The real Healer can't reveal can she/he, for fear of being NK'd while protecting you?

 

Hybrid says

Or do you really think the mafia would pass up a kill attempt?

No, which is why I thought the Evils killed Lia.

And Loreina's logic is ridiculous.  How did she know the mafia did not try to kill Mynd?

Well, if they did, then Mynd killed Lia. And I don't know why he would kill Lia instead of Tigs. That would just make him look really bad. After all, whether he kills innocent or mafia matters not to him, as long as he doesn't hit the Healer. And he would need to keep faith with the innocents, to keep the Healer's good will.

 

So one of you is more confused than I am. 0.o

 

 

[MsDanya]

The traditional HEaler role is not a sacrificial role at all. It just protects whoever the HEaler chooses to protect. When that is said, I will [glow=green,2,300]unvote[/glow].

 

I'm still suspicious of Tigara, so since I have my reasons for voting him earlier, I will vote him again.

 

[glow=green,2,300]Tigara[/glow]

 

(I hope I ddi the coloring right. I'll be back after work)

[Tigara]

Well, going by that list, I think each person is inclined to choose the one they aren't in. :P Brilliant reasoning, Mynd. ::) I know I'm not mafia, but no one else knows that for sure. So really it's up to the people NOT on the list to choose.

[Myndrunner]

Well, going by that list, I think each person is inclined to choose the one they aren't in. :P Brilliant reasoning, Mynd. ::) I know I'm not mafia, but no one else knows that for sure. So really it's up to the people NOT on the list to choose.

 

Indeed, so you are essentially saying that Danya, Verbal, and Cosmic Panda are mafia?

[Verbal32]

I'm not so quick to eliminate Lor from the potential suspects list.  "Playing dumb" is a totally normal mafia trick.....helps you fade into the background.

 

I read that statement of hers the exact opposite of how you did, Mynd.  I see that as playing dumb by the mafia.  However, I'm not placing a vote on her.....waaayyyy too important of a moment to go on a hunch, and that's all it is right now.....a hunch.

 

So I'll abstain right now from voting.

[Barmacral]

Vote Count:

 

Hybrid (1): Tigara

Tigara (2): Hybrid, Danya

 

A few notes on voting: Look at the last person to vote before you, chose the opposite colour of them, you'll be ok. Its either [glow=red,2,300]red[/glow] or [glow=green,2,300]green[/glow].

For the sake of my sanity, please don't unvote if you've not placed a vote. *glares at Lorei*

Stick with only one of the two colours for you post. Please don't use both. *glares at Tig*