One Power strength

[Nightstrike]

I was thinking about Rand wearing the fat little man angreal... Didn't he have that when he thought "I can handle three"? Lets see what difference it would make if we take *angreal into account:

 

Bear in mind that a medium angreal would make Elayne twice as strong as Nynaeve...

 

The Guide says “…, but in general a sa’angreal can be said to allow one to channel as much more of the One Power over that of the angreal as the angreal does over channeling unaided.” Rand has the “fat little man” angreal (a fairly strong angreal). During previous discussions in this thread, I estimated an angreal that’s “among the stronger” to be multiplying strength at least 2.4 times (could be more, but probably not much less). So, how much stronger would a  very strong sa’angreal like the White Tower sa’angreal (“white fluted wand”) be, in case we assume one very strong angreal is, say, multiplying strength 2.5 times? We can look upon it as allowing one to channel 150% more or as allowing one to channel 2.5 times more. Which is it? Lets calculate both alternatives. The white fluted wand might allow (2*150%=) 300% more or (2.5^2=) 6 times more. That would mean that it either multiplies channeling ability with 4 times or 6 times.

 

Lucker’s version:

Rand’s potential is 108, but he hasn’t reached it yet. At LoC, I would say Rand’s OP strength is somewhere between 93 and 104. With the angreal (“fairly strong”=multiplying 2.4 times), he would reach between 223 and 250. I don’t know RJ’s exact strength of Galina, Katerine & Elza. But Rand doesn’t know the strength of three black little sisters either, so that doesn’t matter. According to Lucker’s scale, most AS would be between 40 and 60. Lets say they are 56, 54 and 48. The strongest of them, the one with strength 56, has the white fluted wand. She would be 224 or 336 in strength, depending on angreal/sa’angreal relationsship. The other two wears no *angreal, but they are all three linked in a circle. The loss from linking is 10%. That gives the circle a OP strength of either 293 or 394. That leaves Rand in danger. Even more so, if we consider that women are generally more skilled than men. And yet he is confident he can handle three.

 

My version:

Rand’s potential is 100, but he hasn’t reached it yet. At LoC, I would say Rand’s OP strength is somewhere between 86 and 96. With the angreal he would reach between 206 and 230. In my scale, most AS are probably between 15 and 25 (or something like that). Lets say three black little sisters are 24, 22 and 19. The strongest of them, the one with strength 24, has the white fluted wand. She would be 96 or 144 in strength, depending on angreal/sa’angreal relationsship. The other two wears no *angreal, but they are all three linked in a circle. The loss from linking is 10%. That gives the circle a OP strength of either 123 or 167. Women are generally more skilled than men, so in effect those numbers should be more like either 130 or 176. That means Rand would in all likelihood be out of danger. “I can handle three”, as he said!

 

 

 

 

 

25:   Romanda Lelaine Jancy Amys Garenia/Zarya

24:   Sheriam Galina Theodrin Leane Merise Pevara Yukiri Saerin Kwamesa Kiruna Reanne Kirstian Naime Rysael

23:   Myrelle Silviana Beonin Coiren Desandre Faolain Felaana Joline Lemai Maigan Morvrin Talene Teslyn Anaiya Bera Nesune Carlinya Melaine Tebreille Caire

22:   Delana Doesine Rafela Masuri Katerine Faeldrin Gabrelle Alviarin Sumeko Toveine Liandrin Seaine Edarra Leyn Renaile Shalon

21:   Alanna Duhara Eldrith Keraille Merana Narenwin Verin Seonid Falion Ispan Tarna Kurin Chanelle Dorile Julanya Senine

 

Traveling

 

Comparatively we know that to be impossible. Even if you place the female upper strength at 80--which in itself is impossible given what we know of where the female upper strength sits relative to the male--the cut off for being Aes Sedai is at 28.9 and there are many with the strength nessasary to gain the shawl who cannot travel.

 

Ultimately thats why i suggest the 106 scale.

If we assume that the weakest AS to be found is at 28 in strength and many/most of them are above 40, then why would the White Tower usually send 13 AS to shield a man? At the time of LoC, Rand must have been weaker than 100 in strength (Lucker’s scale). If Elaida sent  only 9 AS with strengths only between 40 and 45, he would have been like a kitten in the mouth of a wolf (even if he was already holding saidin). For most other male channelers, I would say only 6 AS with strengths only between 40 and 45 would have sufficed. Take one poor false dragon, potential 90, but only at 65 reached. He wouldn’t have stood the slightest chance. And yet they usually send 13. A full circle! On the other hand, if almost every AS were weaker than 28, then there might be a reason for sending 13 sisters.

 

 

[triadruid]

Six sisters was enough to keep Rand shielded until they tied off the weave, though. They always send 13 because it's the maximum number of women that can link, and when the Red Ajah are not Being Stupid, they take no chances.

[Nightstrike]

They always send 13 because it's the maximum number of women that can link, and when the Red Ajah are not Being Stupid, they take no chances.

Yes, but why do they always do that? Say most sisters were at strength 30-50 or even 40-60 (I don't believe either is true), and most false dragons are captured before they've reached 60-80 in strength. They could easily give 2 sisters, strength 45, her own medium angreal (multiplies strength 2.2 times). With them follows 4 other sisters with strength 40, none of those have to have an angreal. That isn't taking any chances. That false dragon is without hope. Bundle him up and off to the Tower with him...

[triadruid]

And if he kills one, or three of them?

[Nightstrike]

I really can't see how that could happen... They are much, much stronger and he is a wilder!

 

They shield him and then he can't hurt them, much less kill them. It would probably only take the two stronger and two of the weaker ones to shield him, even if he held saidin at the time. The two that remains could stay unlinked and act as honorary guards. Once he was shielded, it would only take one of the weaker ones+one of the angreal to keep him shielded. The weak one in question would be at (40*2.2=)88 in strength. That would be more than enough to keep the vaste majority of false dragons shielded... Since one that is weaker can keep one that is stronger shielded, I would say she might even be able to keep Rand shielded - which is clearly impossible! Weren't they 4 that kept Logain shielded? And he is weaker than Rand!

 

 

[Thor]

No idea about how much is loss in linking and there really is no solid material to even make any guess so let's rather not do that mmm?

 

The Guide says:

Two women linked can handle more than either could separately, and with much greater control than with multiple flows - ...

 

And RJ said(on his blog):

two women linking have slightly less of saidar available to them than the two women would have individually.

 

 

 

 

Exactly, there is absolutely nothing there to tell us anything about how much or how little is the power loss in linking.  In the eyes of a giant, "slightly" could be enough to move worlds.

[Ndshacker]

You can infer VERY little is lost in linking for the following reason....

 

 

---- When Verin and Allana attempt to Shield Rand after Allana bonds him, he brushes the off without a pause. While this makes them seem weak it is Verin's surprise that 2 sisters linked couldn't hold him that I make my point with. If A trained Aes Sedai, A brown No less who would know quite about about these things, thinks that two Linked Aes Sedai should be able to hold most men, then it is most likely true. If they were losing 1/3 of their strength, any sensible Aes Sedai (Verin) would have known not to challenge him as they are only slightly stronger linked as they are alone. He is above average, and she thinks thinks that it might take the full 13, Not an exact quote="Light, it is only custom to use 13, but he might actually need a full circle to be held."

 

 

 

 

[Mr Ares]

That false dragon is without hope.

It should be noted that most of the male channelers they catch are not false dragons.

 

I really can't see how that could happen... They are much, much stronger and he is a wilder!

It olny takes an arrow or a knife or any number of things to kill a Sister. Being stronger and better trained won't always be enough. Would you rather be safe or sorry?

[Luckers]

Quote

Beyond which, and i dont mean this to sound harsh, but your numbers are incredibly unlikely--if the cut off point is at 36.2 then you are suggesting that the Aes Sedai range of strengths covers maybe 8% (required for Aviendha and the rest to be so far above the top Aes Sedai strength).

 

I read that RJ wrote this on his blog:

 

Quote

regarding the percentage of women who could test for the shawl, it would be 62.5% of the bell-curve… The question doesn't really apply to men, since the Black Tower accepts anyone who can learn to channel, but if the White Tower limits were applied, it would be roughly 65.4% of the bell-curve. Although, considering the effectiveness question, they should probably set it at the same 62.5%.

 

I would say that 37.5% of all women with (some) channeling potential have NOT enough strength potential to test for the shawl. Since there ain't equally many channelers at every level, those 37.5% could well be below, for example, 9 or 10 percent of Lanfear's full strength. RJ was speaking of "percentage of women who could test for the shawl", and NOT "what strength would it take to test for the shawl".

 

Are you suggesting a skewed distrubution of? If you are, by what evidence do you claim such a thing? Indeed, the small distrubtion of Aes Sedai strength speaks to a perfect bellcurve, beyond which we have RJ's comment...

 

"Regarding the percentage of women who could test for the shawl, it would be 62.5% of the bellcurve. I'll leave the maths to you for an idle moment."

 

A skewed distribution of strengths makes any form of mathemtaical analysis of this issue impossible--we don't know tha variables that skew the distribution--yet RJ directly stated that we could work out the exact implications mathematically--that requires an exactly even distribution.

 

There's also a problem with assuming weak AS are at 40 and strong ones at 60...

 

The Guide says:

 

Quote

Two women linked can handle more than either could separately, and with much greater control than with multiple flows - ...

And RJ said(on his blog):

 

Quote

two women linking have slightly less of saidar available to them than the two women would have individually. 

 

 

At one time we have Rand thinking: "Yes, I can handle three, if they aren't too strong... Of course, if one of them is Moghedien in a wig, or Semirhage, I may be in trouble." (LoC, Gifts)

Lets assume we have three medium-AS, all at 50 in strength. If they formed a circle, then they would be at the very least 135 in strength. Rand's potential is at 108, but he hasn't reached it yet... So, he might be at 100. Especially given that women are generelly more skilled, I would say he might be in trouble. And yet he seems confident he can handle three.

 

We also have Egwene saying "... you are stronger than Aviendha and me together." (TFoH, This Place, This day). If they both were at 65 and he were at 100, I wouldn't think she would say that...

 

Firstly, Rand had an angreal and was making that judgement fully aware of that angreal. Three sisters no matter their strength couldn't equal Rand with an angreal.

 

Secondly, your comment about Egwene is flawed on several levels. Firstly, Aviendha had been channeling for two months--she was no where near Egwene's strength. Egwene herself was not yet at her full strength either. That being said, neither was Rand--although men gain strength faster than women and Rand was forced also. Secondly, Egwene and Elayne were wrapped up like kittens by Rand--that experience had its mark--Rand could have done that even if her weren't stronger than both at the time.

 

Endgame, Egwene was basing her assumption on a confrontation between herself, Elayne and Rand in which he trumped both--but individually, not combined. This did not imply he was stronger than both combined, yet subjectively it left its mark. Beyond which Aviendha would have been quite weak at that stage--as such its entirely probable Rand was stronger than both combined--its not nessasary, but its possible.

 

We also have some info about Egwene's strength that seems interesting.

 

At the time they were sent to hunt 13 BA sisters:

"But each of you is more than a match for Liandrin in sheer power, and she is the strongest of them." (TDR, The Bite of the torn).

(at the time they were only months into their AS training)

 

We also have another quote:

"You are Aes Sedai, and strong enough in the Power to overcome Amys and Melaine together." (TFoH, Among the Wise Ones)

Amys=strong AS & Melaine=probably above average AS. Lets say Amys=55 & Melaine=50.

Even if the loss is 15% (unlikely), that would leave them at (55+50)*0.85=89.25. If Egwene were to overcome them, she'd have to be at least 90 in strength. That's impossible! The only reasonable conclusion is that there is a big gap between "strong Aes Sedai" (such as Moiraine) and Egwene. For instance, 17% (70/60) just isn't enough!

 

Correct, it is impossible. Incidently i'd place Egwene and the like as high as 75, whilst Moiraine at best at 60.

 

I have reconsidered my listings after discussions in this thread. Here follows my new list:

 

 

100:    Rand

98:  Ishamael

95:  Lanfear

93:  Demandred

 

90:  Sammael Taim Logain

85:  Rahvin Aginor

80:  Balthamel Graendal

75:  Be’lal

70:  Semirhage Mesaana

65:  Asmodean

60:    Alivia Sharina

55:  Nynaeve Talaan

50:  Tamela Viendre Moghedien

45:  Egwene Elayne Aviendha Metarra

40:  Bodewhin Someryn

35:  Cadsuane

30:  Nicola

 

26:  Therava Rainyn 

25:  Moiraine Siuan Elaida Romanda Lelaine Jancy Amys Garenia/Zarya

 

 

Choedan Kal

 

24:  Sheriam Galina Theodrin Leane Merise Pevara Yukiri Saerin Kwamesa Kiruna Reanne Kirstian Naime Rysael

23:  Myrelle Silviana Beonin Coiren Desandre Faolain Felaana Joline Lemai Maigan Morvrin Talene Teslyn Anaiya Bera Nesune Carlinya Melaine Tebreille Caire

22:  Delana Doesine Rafela Masuri Katerine Faeldrin Gabrelle Alviarin Sumeko Toveine Liandrin Seaine Edarra Leyn Renaile Shalon

21:  Alanna Duhara Eldrith Keraille Merana Narenwin Verin Seonid Falion Ispan Tarna Kurin Chanelle Dorile Julanya Senine

 

Traveling

 

20:    …

 

Once again i find your positioning implausible--inherently they are wrong given the Aes Sedai cut off point is 37.5. But, again, specific points.

 

100:    Rand

98:  Ishamael

 

They exist at the same strength, its directly stated within the text.

 

85:  Rahvin Aginor

 

Aginor should be above Demandred. This too is directly stated in the text.

 

60:    Alivia Sharina

 

Implications are they stand as high, or near to Lanfear. By what basis do you limit them to such a minor position?

 

The rest are all subjective placements that have no basis in the text.

 

After just a few months of AS training, Egwene was well above Liandrin in strength. And Liandrin is far from weak (not very far behind Moiraine).

 

By what basis do you claim Liandrain was far from weak? Or that she was even remotely close to Moiraine. She was the strongest of those that left--but that could still leave her being incredibly weak.

 

After just a few months of AS training, Egwene was well above Liandrin in strength. And Liandrin is far from weak (not very far behind Moiraine). So, in Lucker’s scale, I would say if Aviendha had  met an unforced Egwene, she would have been about 62 in strength (Moiraine=60 & Egwene’s end-potential=70). Lets say that, after being forced, Egwene had already reached 69 in strength (unlikely, since her end-potential is 70). Aviendha is now trying to figure out Egwene’s end-potential. In other words, lets say her approximation=x .

 

x/69=70/62

x=77.9

 

If "Aviendha's view of Egwene’s potential" is greater than Melaine linked with Amys, their added strength (without loss from linking) must be well below (77.9/0.85=) 91.6. But Melaine added to Amys (without loss) is at least 105 in strength. For this to be correct, the loss for linking would have to be at least (1-(77.9/106)=) 0.265. That doesn’t fit the description RJ gave – he said 2 linked could wield “slightly less”. More than 1/4 loss is hardly “slightly less”. Not to mention the problem we would have to deal with, when Egwene describes Rand as “stronger than me and Aviendha together”. Even if Egwene is 69 and Aviendha 64 (she’s one year older than Egwene), they would be 97.8 in strength linked (after 26.5% penalty, which I want to point out is extremely unlikely). RJ said the strongest woman and the strongest man could accomplish the same, due to women being more skilled. We would therefore have to compensate for this. In effect, Rand would have to be at the very least (97.755*(108/100)=) 106 in strength  – I’d say he would have to be much stronger than that to have handled them like kittens! And end-potential is 108 (Lucker’s scale). That doesn’t seem reasonable.

 

Firstly, my scale is not a thing to be dismissed--its a fact of the books--it exists with Rand being between 104 and 108 and Lanfear at the top female strength being 100.

 

Placements of channelers within that scale are utterly subjective and absurd--a fact that ive pointed out several times. I've used random numbers to represent chanelers to make specific points, but i have no constructed a number system to stand against your own--indeed if anything in this thread ive been trying to discredit such a subjective approach. My random numbers were hypothetical--they are not 'my scale' as opposed to your own. They were invented to serve a purpose, not stated to express a belief oa factual level.

 

Secondly, Aviendha's comment is patently false, therefore we must condclude her misinformed. Keep in mind that the Wise Ones were not at that stage aware of linking--they did not know how to do it, and likely did not even know it was possible. As such Aviendha's comment had to refer to a complete one hundred percent addition of Melaine and Amys' strenths--and thats utterly impossible no matter where Egwene stands on the spectrum. Hence, we must conclude that she was wrong.

 

Just adding some further evidence that Egwene & Aviendha both were stronger than Moiraine around "The Fires of Heaven":

Aviendha said “I may not know as much as Moiraine Sedai, but I’m as strong as Egwene,…” (TFoH, News Comes to Cairhien). That would in all likelihood mean that Egwene is stronger than Moiraine. And Aviendha can’t be very far behind.

 

Egwene was stronger than Moiraine by that stage--however, i find Aviendha's comment impossible. Egwene was forced and had been channeling for nearly a year before Aviendha.

 

As such we must deduce it to either be a mistake by RJ, or a mistake by Aviendha--the later is possible, she has been consistently wrong on this reguard.

 

Lucker’s version:

Rand’s potential is 108, but he hasn’t reached it yet. At LoC, I would say Rand’s OP strength is somewhere between 93 and 104. With the angreal (“fairly strong”=multiplying 2.4 times), he would reach between 223 and 250. I don’t know RJ’s exact strength of Galina, Katerine & Elza. But Rand doesn’t know the strength of three black little sisters either, so that doesn’t matter. According to Lucker’s scale, most AS would be between 40 and 60. Lets say they are 56, 54 and 48. The strongest of them, the one with strength 56, has the white fluted wand. She would be 224 or 336 in strength, depending on angreal/sa’angreal relationsship. The other two wears no *angreal, but they are all three linked in a circle. The loss from linking is 10%. That gives the circle a OP strength of either 293 or 394. That leaves Rand in danger. Even more so, if we consider that women are generally more skilled than men. And yet he is confident he can handle three.

 

Three without a sa'angreal--he specifically states that he can handle three unless one has incredible strength (he states unless one is semirhage or Mesaana in a wig, but unless one has a sa'angreal works just as well).

 

Beyond that i stand by everything--except to say again that subjective guesses as to strength levels are wholely unreliable, and that 'my scale' such that it is, is only accurate in the specific positioning of people we have direct comments for which to place. The Aes Sedai upper strength is not included within that--for the purpose of argument i said 60, we have no basis for that, and i've stated as much several times.

 

f we assume that the weakest AS to be found is at 28 in strength and many/most of them are above 40, then why would the White Tower usually send 13 AS to shield a man? At the time of LoC, Rand must have been weaker than 100 in strength (Lucker’s scale). If Elaida sent  only 9 AS with strengths only between 40 and 45, he would have been like a kitten in the mouth of a wolf (even if he was already holding saidin). For most other male channelers, I would say only 6 AS with strengths only between 40 and 45 would have sufficed. Take one poor false dragon, potential 90, but only at 65 reached. He wouldn’t have stood the slightest chance. And yet they usually send 13. A full circle! On the other hand, if almost every AS were weaker than 28, then there might be a reason for sending 13 sisters.

 

You might as well ask why sisters were assigned to shield Leane in spite of the fact that with the forkroot she couldn't swat a fly. Custom. Sisters are slaves to it. This is stated time and again and again.

 

And yes, Rand likely would be a kitten in the face of a wolf with nine sisters. In fact he certainly would be, angreal or no--specifically he even thinks it to himself when confronted by seven Aes sedai

 

She could not Dreamwalk, but she surely put as much effort into absorbing every art of a Wise One as she could ever have put into learning her weapons as a Maiden.” (TFoH, Among the Wise Ones).

When Aviendha and Rand were in Seanchan, Rand asked Aviendha if she could shield 4 damane. Aviendha replied “Of course. Egwene taught me to handle several flows at once. I can block them, tie those off, and wrap them up in flows of Air before they know what is happening. I am fast enough to handle them, and their horses, …” (TFoH, A Short Spear) – I doubt even Moiraine could do that!

 

She could have--we know as a fact that Moiraine could divide her flows four ways, and Aviendha specifically states that she'd need to tie of those four shield before proceeding.

 

And concerning Egwene’s strength, we have her thinking “Her teachers were always so cautious, whether Wise Ones or Aes Sedai in the Tower; it was hard to hold back when she knew that in so many ways she already outstripped them. I can do more than they realize.“ (TFoH, Among the Wise Ones). And Moiraine said “…but what if who is with Rahvin is Semirhage, or Graendal? Or Lanfear? These two might overwhelm one such, but could you face her and Rahvin together alone?” (TFoH, News Comes to Cairhien). That would probably mean that Egwene and Aviendha linked could take on Rahvin, at least in Moiraine’s opinion. We also have the quote, about Egwene/Moiraine, “Sitting, Egwene was nearly a head taller, and she was stronger in the Power besides, ...” (TFoH, What Can Be Learned in Dreams).

 

Moiraine's judgements of Forsaken's strength are inherently uninformed--that being said she was probably correct--Egwene and Aviendha linked probably could overwhelm a Forsaken in pure strength. That wouldn't nessasarily mean they'd win--just consider Alivia at twice Cyndane's strength.

 

Furthermore we know for a fact that Egwene exceeded Moiraine's strength long before that--they are directly compared in tSR.

 

---- When Verin and Allana attempt to Shield Rand after Allana bonds him, he brushes the off without a pause. While this makes them seem weak it is Verin's surprise that 2 sisters linked couldn't hold him that I make my point with. If A trained Aes Sedai, A brown No less who would know quite about about these things, thinks that two Linked Aes Sedai should be able to hold most men, then it is most likely true. If they were losing 1/3 of their strength, any sensible Aes Sedai (Verin) would have known not to challenge him as they are only slightly stronger linked as they are alone. He is above average, and she thinks thinks that it might take the full 13, Not an exact quote="Light, it is only custom to use 13, but he might actually need a full circle to be held."

 

Verin has directly displayed the degree of her lack of knowledge about male/female strength differences in tGH when she states that Moiraine and co. far exceed Logain, and that male/female circles are ten times as strong as female only circles. Indeed, the fact that men are on average stronger then women, and that the male top strength exceeds the female is something unknown to modern Aes Sedai is directly stated in the text by Rand who brings up Moiraine's claim that the genders were equal.

 

Quite frankly they are wrong.

 

Aside from which, you'll note Verin's shock is in how strong Rand as grown, not in that the two could not shield him--she did not believe that two women should have been able to shield any man, she just hadn't realised Rand had grown to the strength that two women could not shield him. An undertsandable confusion given how long it takes women to increase in strength.

 

 

 

 

[Nightstrike]

Secondly, your comment about Egwene is flawed on several levels. Firstly, Aviendha had been channeling for two months--she was no where near Egwene's strength. Egwene herself was not yet at her full strength either.

How do you know she'd been channeling two months? She's one year older than Egwene. Aviendha specifically stated that "I am as strong as Egwene", which means there probably isn't a very large difference between the two. Shielding four damane at once and then binding up a whole seanchan group (with horses) seems like it takes strength. Egwene said "could she divide her flows four ways? Not many AS could..." (about a windfinder in LoC) & Siuan said that she used to be able to lift nearly three times her own weight. I think Aviendha managed that (and more). Egwene specifically stated that she herself is stronger than Moiraine. 

 

Edit: Egwene stated that she herself was stronger than Moiraine as early as book 4, chapter 7. She said Moiraine would have fallen unconscious or been lying crying on the floor if she'd tried to take in as much as herself at that moment.

 

 

60:    Alivia Sharina

 

Implications are they stand as high, or near to Lanfear. By what basis do you limit them to such a minor position?

What implications? That some AS speculated (their own words)? The basis is the comparison between Cyndane/Alivia earlier in this thread and the quotes that compared them both to Nynaeve. The quotes makes it unlikely that Sharina could have higher potential than Alivia's strength, IMO.

 

 

 

Secondly, Aviendha's comment is patently false, therefore we must condclude her misinformed. Keep in mind that the Wise Ones were not at that stage aware of linking--they did not know how to do it, and likely did not even know it was possible. As such Aviendha's comment had to refer to a complete one hundred percent addition of Melaine and Amys' strenths--and thats utterly impossible no matter where Egwene stands on the spectrum. Hence, we must conclude that she was wrong.

Why would she make that mistake?? A female channeler can sense other's strengths. Egwene would in all likelihood have taught her near-sister how to link. After all, when Aviendha and Rand were in Seanchan, Rand asked Aviendha if she could shield 4 damane. Aviendha replied “Of course. Egwene taught me to handle several flows at once." & Egwene had tried to tell her about Healing (even though none of them has the Talent for it). The Dragon is reborn, the last battle is near and they are all fighting for the Good, so why should Egwene have kept linking from her near-sister. The Aiel teach her, so at least she should teach Avi linking.

 

 

 

Three without a sa'angreal--he specifically states that he can handle three unless one has incredible strength (he states unless one is semirhage or Mesaana in a wig, but unless one has a sa'angreal works just as well).

What if they all have one angreal each? That would make them stronger than him, and he certainly can't be sure they don't have angreal. There were 13 who shielded him and 2 more to stand guard. Surely some of those 15 had been given angreal. They might even have had stronger angreal than him (his is "fairly strong"). And yet he wasn't even holding saidin when he let the (supposedly) three Aes Sedai into his rooms. He seemed confident he didn't need to be prepared (as you might expect if he knew they were clearly above his strength).

 

 

 

If we assume that the weakest AS to be found is at 28 in strength and many/most of them are above 40, then why would the White Tower usually send 13 AS to shield a man? At the time of LoC, Rand must have been weaker than 100 in strength (Lucker’s scale). If Elaida sent  only 9 AS with strengths only between 40 and 45, he would have been like a kitten in the mouth of a wolf (even if he was already holding saidin). For most other male channelers, I would say only 6 AS with strengths only between 40 and 45 would have sufficed. Take one poor false dragon, potential 90, but only at 65 reached. He wouldn’t have stood the slightest chance. And yet they usually send 13. A full circle! On the other hand, if almost every AS were weaker than 28, then there might be a reason for sending 13 sisters.

 

You might as well ask why sisters were assigned to shield Leane in spite of the fact that with the forkroot she couldn't swat a fly. Custom. Sisters are slaves to it. This is stated time and again and again.

 

And yes, Rand likely would be a kitten in the face of a wolf with nine sisters. In fact he certainly would be, angreal or no--specifically he even thinks it to himself when confronted by seven Aes sedai

Fair enough, it's custom to send 13. But why did it take 6 to keep Rand shielded and 4 to keep Logain shielded? Didn't any of them have an angreal? One medium strength (at what, 45-55?) sister with one medium strength angreal must have been able to keep Rand shielded. If they wanted her to have guards to watch for Aiel, they could at least have settled for three. But instead they let 6 or 4 AS be keeping them shielded.

 

And Rand didn't think what you said when confronted by seven AS. Instead he thought "Seven. Lews Therin groaned. I cannot handle seven, not at once. Rand thought of the fat-little-man angreal, and the voice faded to murmurs; it still sounded uneasy, though." (LoC, The Mirror of Mists). The reason he's still uneasy is probably because he can't be sure how many angreal they have. But the point is that he isn't 100% convinced they could overcome him. Seven AS at 50 in strength (or stronger) could probably shield him if 2 (or more) of them had angreal as strong (or stronger) as the one he has. Seven AS at 21 (or a couple of units stronger) would probably be slightly weaker in strength than him if 2 of them (or more) had angreal as strong (or stronger) as the one he has. Three angreal instead of two would make all the difference in the former case, and in the latter case it could be cause for concern. In the former case we have great cause to panic, and in the latter case we have reason to feel uneasy. He felt uneasy...

 

 

 

She could not Dreamwalk, but she surely put as much effort into absorbing every art of a Wise One as she could ever have put into learning her weapons as a Maiden.” (TFoH, Among the Wise Ones).

When Aviendha and Rand were in Seanchan, Rand asked Aviendha if she could shield 4 damane. Aviendha replied “Of course. Egwene taught me to handle several flows at once. I can block them, tie those off, and wrap them up in flows of Air before they know what is happening. I am fast enough to handle them, and their horses, …” (TFoH, A Short Spear) – I doubt even Moiraine could do that!

 

She could have--we know as a fact that Moiraine could divide her flows four ways, and Aviendha specifically states that she'd need to tie of those four shield before proceeding.

Could she shield 4 damane at once or tie up a group of seanchan AND THEIR HORSES in flows of air? Siuan could lift 3 times her own weight, but dividing the flows and tying up the mounted seanchan group must be tougher. "Holding two weaves at once was more than twice as taxing as one, three more than twice as wearing as two." (NS, practice). The damane could be of varying strengths, but generally sparkers are stronger than learners. And damane are sparkers. Shielding 4 at once must take serious strength.

 

Edit: Taxing/wearing comparison between multiple flows also in book 4, chapter 7.

 

 

 

 

 

[Nightstrike]

Are you suggesting a skewed distrubution of? If you are, by what evidence do you claim such a thing? Indeed, the small distrubtion of Aes Sedai strength speaks to a perfect bellcurve, beyond which we have RJ's comment...

 

"Regarding the percentage of women who could test for the shawl, it would be 62.5% of the bellcurve. I'll leave the maths to you for an idle moment."

 

A skewed distribution of strengths makes any form of mathemtaical analysis of this issue impossible--we don't know tha variables that skew the distribution--yet RJ directly stated that we could work out the exact implications mathematically--that requires an exactly even distribution.

 

I don't know what distribution RJ had in mind. I think the "I'll leave the maths to you for an idle moment" comment could have been a joke (or at least only half-seriously). Even if it wasn't a joke, we would face the impossible task of working out the three variables that comes with the curve in question. We have variance, mean and skewness to take into account. If only one variable is unknown, then we can't draw the curve. The curve would certainly not be a standardized bell curve. Since it isn't, we can't work out "cut-off strength to become Aes Sedai" from mean alone. One thing that could cause a skewed curve is the culling of men that can channel, but the cause of channeling ability itself could possibly also have factors that would cause a skewed curve. And we don't know the exact population census of Randland or how many learners the Aes Sedai miss to pick up. Before reading RJ's comment, I had alway pictured the frequency curve as having a negative slope all through the curve. Kind of like the one you get from the right side of the bell-curve. But he mentioned the bell-curve, so that rules out my idea.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Nightstrike]

From wikipedia (skewness):

 

Skewness has benefits in many areas. Many simplistic models assume normal distribution i.e. data is symmetric about the mean. The normal distribution has a skewness of zero. But in reality, data points are not perfectly symmetric. So, an understanding of the skewness of the dataset indicates whether deviations from the mean are going to be positive or negative.

 

 

[Luckers]

How do you know she'd been channeling two months? She's one year older than Egwene. Aviendha specifically stated that "I am as strong as Egwene", which means there probably isn't a very large difference between the two. Shielding four damane at once and then binding up a whole seanchan group (with horses) seems like it takes strength. Egwene said "could she divide her flows four ways? Not many AS could..." (about a windfinder in LoC) & Siuan said that she used to be able to lift nearly three times her own weight. I think Aviendha managed that (and more). Egwene specifically stated that she herself is stronger than Moiraine

 

We see when she begins channeling. We know the Wise Ones let her travel into the Westlands, and we know they don't tolerate girls dying from a lack of training--there is no way they allowed her to go if she was already actively channeling--which means she'd been channeling a top of two months.

 

As an aside, I'm not sure what your later comments were meant to mean--for starters, there were only two damane, and one can hold a shield on someone even if you are weaker than they--consider Amico holds shields on Egwene, Elayne and Nynaeve altogether and all three were stronger than she at the time. Nynaeve considerably. The two sul'dam were shielded, but could not express any effort on breaking the shield. She might as well have been shielding two Morgase's--a fact that she was well aware of--she even commented on it.

 

Secondly, consider that Egwene divides her flows fourteen ways in KoD. That Aviendha can do four suggests nothing more than the relative weakness of most Aes Sedai.

 

Thirdly, what does Siuan being able to lift thrice her weight have to do with anything--we know for a fact that the ability to lift weight increases at a dramatic amount in response to small increases in strength. Currently Siuan cannot lift even her own weight, yet she still stands above the Aes Sedai cut off point and indeed is stronger than six Aes Sedai i can think of off the top of my head. That means her ability to lift weight has decreased by more than two thirds whilst her strength has not even been quartered.

 

I don't see the relevance.

 

What implications? That some AS speculated (their own words)? The basis is the comparison between Cyndane/Alivia earlier in this thread and the quotes that compared them both to Nynaeve. The quotes makes it unlikely that Sharina could have higher potential than Alivia's strength, IMO.

 

What comparison? That Cyndane manage to injure Alivia before being driven off despite the fact that she had less than half Alivia's strength? Wherein does that support Alivia being so weak unaided?

 

And yes, those Aes Sedai's speculations are exactly the implications i spoke of... with, of course, all the backing i threw in to point out why those words might be significant--my point here Nightstrike is that your argument is fluff and nothing. I don't mean that to be insulting, but you have aboslutely nothing to base this scale of yours on--in fact you said it best yourself. In. Your. Opinion.

 

I'm not trying to place Sharina and Alivia at Lanfear's strength--i think it possible, but meh--my point is that to so subjectively place them at any strength is counterproductive. In the fact of conflictive and inconclusive data we must let go of trying to be so specific.

 

I am still puzzled by the incredible weakness that you place the two on--even not giving them Lanfear-status i'd be hardplaced to see them below a 85. But thats me.

 

 

Why would she make that mistake?? A female channeler can sense other's strengths.

 

Egwene doesn't show that skill until encountering Amys. Nearly six months after she first touched the source. It takes practice and time.

 

Irrespective of why, she made the mistake. Thats a fact.

 

Egwene would in all likelihood have taught her near-sister how to link. After all, when Aviendha and Rand were in Seanchan, Rand asked Aviendha if she could shield 4 damane. Aviendha replied “Of course. Egwene taught me to handle several flows at once." & Egwene had tried to tell her about Healing (even though none of them has the Talent for it). The Dragon is reborn, the last battle is near and they are all fighting for the Good, so why should Egwene have kept linking from her near-sister. The Aiel teach her, so at least she should teach Avi linking.

 

Egwene did not know how to link at that stage. She and Nynaeve directly discuss this in tDR.

 

Incidently, in the end she did teach the Aiel how to link, but not until LoC, after she had become Amyrlin.

 

What if they all have one angreal each? That would make them stronger than him, and he certainly can't be sure they don't have angreal. There were 13 who shielded him and 2 more to stand guard. Surely some of those 15 had been given angreal. They might even have had stronger angreal than him (his is "fairly strong"). And yet he wasn't even holding saidin when he let the (supposedly) three Aes Sedai into his rooms. He seemed confident he didn't need to be prepared (as you might expect if he knew they were clearly above his strength).

 

Yes, if they had angreal they would have presented a problem. Again, as with the sa'angreal comment, they did not. And more specific to this discussion, he did not consider the possibility.

 

Fair enough, it's custom to send 13. But why did it take 6 to keep Rand shielded and 4 to keep Logain shielded? Didn't any of them have an angreal? One medium strength (at what, 45-55?) sister with one medium strength angreal must have been able to keep Rand shielded. If they wanted her to have guards to watch for Aiel, they could at least have settled for three. But instead they let 6 or 4 AS be keeping them shielded.

 

The number six is once again a custom--and incidently six were assigned to keep Logain shielded--at least all through LoC they were. In Caemlyn I'm guessing there were six, but only four could fit on the platform--remember that was to be a display to show the people what happened to false dragons and men who could channel in general. It was not functional, it was theatrical. Two other sisters could easily have been in that link and riding some distance away from the platform.

 

As for the lack of the use of angreal. They are rare and precious--but your right, perhaps they have been employed in taking down false dragons--indeed, Cadsuane's done just that in the past. Wouldn't stop the average Aes Sedai from including six as was custom.

 

 

And Rand didn't think what you said when confronted by seven AS. Instead he thought "Seven. Lews Therin groaned. I cannot handle seven, not at once. Rand thought of the fat-little-man angreal, and the voice faded to murmurs; it still sounded uneasy, though." (LoC, The Mirror of Mists). The reason he's still uneasy is probably because he can't be sure how many angreal they have. But the point is that he isn't 100% convinced they could overcome him. Seven AS at 50 in strength (or stronger) could probably shield him if 2 (or more) of them had angreal as strong (or stronger) as the one he has. Seven AS at 21 (or a couple of units stronger) would probably be slightly weaker in strength than him if 2 of them (or more) had angreal as strong (or stronger) as the one he has. Three angreal instead of two would make all the difference in the former case, and in the latter case it could be cause for concern. In the former case we have great cause to panic, and in the latter case we have reason to feel uneasy. He felt uneasy...

 

Once again, we know the Aes Sedai could not be as weak as 21, they never would have gained the shawl.

 

Beyond that no, the reason Lews Therin is uneasy is because its too evenly matched. Seven average sisters at around 50 contributing around 90% of their strength ends at 315. Rand with an angreal ends between 240 and 290. It makes it close enough to make it possible, especially with superior knowledge of the Power (i.e. Cyndane and Alivia), which Lews Therin had (him being the muttering one). From his point of view the power difference might be overcome, but it was still a chancey thing, one he could definately lose.

 

Aside from which, he knew they were rebels, are you honestly suggesting he was concerned each one packed an angreal under her blouse? You have no evidence for it, and there is no need to suggest it.

 

Could she shield 4 damane at once or tie up a group of seanchan AND THEIR HORSES in flows of air? Siuan could lift 3 times her own weight, but dividing the flows and tying up the mounted seanchan group must be tougher.

 

She did not tie up the Seanchan, Rand did that. Furthermore, she stated that she could shield all four, and then tie the flows, and then bind them with air--and yes, Moiraine could have done exactly the same thing. Furthermore what relevance does your comment have about Siuan lifting things--lifting things and the limitations that bind channelers abilities to do so have nothing to dp with this--and the difficulties faced in lifting things as opposed to the difficulties faced in dividing flows are not even related.

 

As for binding people with air--Rand did that, and besides its not any where as hard as lifting things.

 

The damane could be of varying strengths, but generally sparkers are stronger than learners. And damane are sparkers. Shielding 4 at once must take serious strength.

 

Firstly, shielding four at once would not have require great strength--you do not have to be stronger than the person you are holding to maintain their shield, and Aviendha knew how weak the sul'dam were. Once again i must point out Amico, who was shielding three women all of whom were substantially stronger than she (which probably was not the case with Aviendha and the two damane).

 

Secondly, I question your logic there--that the sparkers who are main characters have been in general very strong doesn't sustain the argument that generally sparkers are stronger than learners. We've met many very strong learners, and many very weak sparkers. And vice versa. Any sort of implication from that is pointless. To suggest those damane must have been strong is absurd, or even above average, is impossible.

 

I don't know what distribution RJ had in mind. I think the "I'll leave the maths to you for an idle moment" comment could have been a joke (or at least only half-seriously). Even if it wasn't a joke, we would face the impossible task of working out the three variables that comes with the curve in question. We have variance, mean and skewness to take into account. If only one variable is unknown, then we can't draw the curve. The curve would certainly not be a standardized bell curve. Since it isn't, we can't work out "cut-off strength to become Aes Sedai" from mean alone. One thing that could cause a skewed curve is the culling of men that can channel, but the cause of channeling ability itself could possibly also have factors that would cause a skewed curve. And we don't know the exact population census of Randland or how many learners the Aes Sedai miss to pick up. Before reading RJ's comment, I had alway pictured the frequency curve as having a negative slope all through the curve. Kind of like the one you get from the right side of the bell-curve. But he mentioned the bell-curve, so that rules out my idea.

 

That would be the point though, given RJ has given us the go-ahead (and i see no basis for your suggestion that he was joking) we must assume a normal distribution. Your arguments are all made irrelevant by that fact.

 

You don't argue with the man, man.

 

And Nightstrike, i know what skewness is--if you'll recall, i was the one that raised it. There's no nead to quote wikipedia. But as the facts stand we know there is no skew to the distribution, ergo the point is invalid.

 

As an amusing side note, the 'culling of men' is logically unsustainable. The vast majority of male channelers are learners and stay within the gene pool, and even those that do spark often don't until their late twenties, which in their socio-economic setting means they would on average already have children. Several, in fact. Sorry Aes Sedai, try again.

 

The Aes Sedai and Kinswomen not marrying would have a larger impact, though even that would not be that great amongst the one percent of women that can channel.

 

The lack of inbreading between male and female channelers though would probably have an impact--likely the reason its gone down from 3% in the Age of Legends to 1% now.

[Nightstrike]

So, Luckers, lets say you're right. There is no skewness. But how have you found out the variance?

[Nightstrike]

We see when she begins channeling. We know the Wise Ones let her travel into the Westlands, and we know they don't tolerate girls dying from a lack of training--there is no way they allowed her to go if she was already actively channeling--which means she'd been channeling a top of two months.

I still say we can't know that 100%.

 

As an aside, I'm not sure what your later comments were meant to mean--for starters, there were only two damane, and one can hold a shield on someone even if you are weaker than they--consider Amico holds shields on Egwene, Elayne and Nynaeve altogether and all three were stronger than she at the time. Nynaeve considerably. The two sul'dam were shielded, but could not express any effort on breaking the shield. She might as well have been shielding two Morgase's--a fact that she was well aware of--she even commented on it.

There were 4 damane (TFoH, A Short Spear). Two Morgase's? Are we talking about the same episode?

 

Secondly, consider that Egwene divides her flows fourteen ways in KoD. That Aviendha can do four suggests nothing more than the relative weakness of most Aes Sedai.

Yeah, that was impressive. Especially considering Moiraine's four. Moiraine could have done 4 more impressive weaves, true, but Egwene was dosed with forkroot. Aviendha's shielding of four is another thing than just the average weave, and that should also be taken into consideration.

 

Thirdly, what does Siuan being able to lift thrice her weight have to do with anything--we know for a fact that the ability to lift weight increases at a dramatic amount in response to small increases in strength. Currently Siuan cannot lift even her own weight, yet she still stands above the Aes Sedai cut off point and indeed is stronger than six Aes Sedai i can think of off the top of my head. That means her ability to lift weight has decreased by more than two thirds whilst her strength has not even been quartered.

How do you know that?

 

What comparison? That Cyndane manage to injure Alivia before being driven off despite the fact that she had less than half Alivia's strength? Wherein does that support Alivia being so weak unaided?

If Alivia with *angreal would have been much more than 2 times Cyndane's strength, Alivia should have been able to shield her, IMO.

 

And yes, those Aes Sedai's speculations are exactly the implications i spoke of... with, of course, all the backing i threw in to point out why those words might be significant--my point here Nightstrike is that your argument is fluff and nothing. I don't mean that to be insulting, but you have aboslutely nothing to base this scale of yours on--in fact you said it best yourself. In. Your. Opinion.

I have more than nothing, but you disagree with me.

 

Egwene did not know how to link at that stage. She and Nynaeve directly discuss this in tDR.

 

Incidently, in the end she did teach the Aiel how to link, but not until LoC, after she had become Amyrlin.

LoC is the next book. So when did she learn? TDR is 3 books earlier!

 

Yes, if they had angreal they would have presented a problem. Again, as with the sa'angreal comment, they did not. And more specific to this discussion, he did not consider the possibility.

I would have considered the possibility (in both Elaida's and Rand's situation).

 

And Rand didn't think what you said when confronted by seven AS. Instead he thought "Seven. Lews Therin groaned. I cannot handle seven, not at once. Rand thought of the fat-little-man angreal, and the voice faded to murmurs; it still sounded uneasy, though." (LoC, The Mirror of Mists). The reason he's still uneasy is probably because he can't be sure how many angreal they have. But the point is that he isn't 100% convinced they could overcome him. Seven AS at 50 in strength (or stronger) could probably shield him if 2 (or more) of them had angreal as strong (or stronger) as the one he has. Seven AS at 21 (or a couple of units stronger) would probably be slightly weaker in strength than him if 2 of them (or more) had angreal as strong (or stronger) as the one he has. Three angreal instead of two would make all the difference in the former case, and in the latter case it could be cause for concern. In the former case we have great cause to panic, and in the latter case we have reason to feel uneasy. He felt uneasy...

Aside from which, he knew they were rebels, are you honestly suggesting he was concerned each one packed an angreal under her blouse? You have no evidence for it, and there is no need to suggest it.

No, I was suggesting two or three of them. That was what I mentioned.

 

Besides, we have him thinking "Shielding anyone did take a fair amount of strength. With the angreal, Rand was sure he could make seven shields, even with them embracing saidar already;...". If they were the strengths you suggest, I doubt he would have the slightest chance to make seven shields - even if none of them have an angreal.

 

She did not tie up the Seanchan, Rand did that. Furthermore, she stated that she could shield all four, and then tie the flows, and then bind them with air--and yes, Moiraine could have done exactly the same thing. Furthermore what relevance does your comment have about Siuan lifting things--lifting things and the limitations that bind channelers abilities to do so have nothing to dp with this--and the difficulties faced in lifting things as opposed to the difficulties faced in dividing flows are not even related.

Not as opposed to, but in combination with! She said she could tie up them and their horses. Rand did it, but she said she could. She shielded 4 sparkers at once, though.

 

Secondly, I question your logic there--that the sparkers who are main characters have been in general very strong doesn't sustain the argument that generally sparkers are stronger than learners. We've met many very strong learners, and many very weak sparkers. And vice versa. Any sort of implication from that is pointless. To suggest those damane must have been strong is absurd, or even above average, is impossible.

I suggested some or someone of them probably were (I said varying strength). Many very weak sparkers? I can't name one, but I'm sure there might be someone that have been mentioned. Sharina is one very strong learner, but the majority of the strong ones that we know anything about are sparkers. Bodewhin, Nynaeve, Alivia & Theodrin jumps to my mind.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Luckers]

So, Luckers, lets say you're right. There is no skewness. But how have you found out the variance?

 

What variance? Variables by nature skew a distribution, and by RJ's comment this is an exactly even distribution, else, as you stated, we could not predict it--which RJ stated we could.

 

As a side note, of the variables you raised--decline in the number of channelers overall does not imply a change of the strength strata within that group.

 

I'm confused about what you are talking about.

 

Quote

We see when she begins channeling. We know the Wise Ones let her travel into the Westlands, and we know they don't tolerate girls dying from a lack of training--there is no way they allowed her to go if she was already actively channeling--which means she'd been channeling a top of two months.

I still say we can't know that 100%.

 

On what basis?

 

There were 4 damane (TFoH, A Short Spear). Two Morgase's? Are we talking about the same episode?

 

No, there were 2 damane and 2 sul'dam. Aviendha senses that the sul'dam can channel too, though she says it is weird, as if they've never tried, and that they are weak.

 

So yes, two Morgase's seem an apt comparison. As for whether we are talking about the same episode I do not know. I actually read the chapter before posting last time, did you?

 

Yeah, that was impressive. Especially considering Moiraine's four. Moiraine could have done 4 more impressive weaves, true, but Egwene was dosed with forkroot. Aviendha's shielding of four is another thing than just the average weave, and that should also be taken into consideration.

 

Should it? In light of Amico? In light of the fact that two of those she was shielding were sul'dam who had never channeled--a fact Aviendha knew, and directly stated their relative weakness.

 

What does Egwene being dosed with forkroot have to do with it, by the way? Either she divided her flows fourteen ways or she didn't. And either dividing flows is important, or it isn't.

 

Quote

Thirdly, what does Siuan being able to lift thrice her weight have to do with anything--we know for a fact that the ability to lift weight increases at a dramatic amount in response to small increases in strength. Currently Siuan cannot lift even her own weight, yet she still stands above the Aes Sedai cut off point and indeed is stronger than six Aes Sedai i can think of off the top of my head. That means her ability to lift weight has decreased by more than two thirds whilst her strength has not even been quartered.

How do you know that?

 

The Aes Sedai cut off strength is 36.5. Siuan stands above the Aes Sedai cut off point--indeed, We've witnessed within the scope of the story six Aes Sedai weaker than Siuan currently is, so she is not even on the cut off point. Given rough analysis her previous strength would have been around 60. Subsequently she stands around 40.

 

She therefore declined around 24%--one quarter her strength.

 

Before she declined in strength she was able to lift three times her own weight, after she isn't even able to lift Gareth--presumably more than her own weight, yet she never even stirs him, so lets say her own weight and be done.

 

Thus the decline in her ability to lift things is greater than the respective decline in her strength. As such the ability to lift things does not mirror strength exactly, rather increase at an exponential rate--at least to a certain degree, we know there are upper limits.

 

This is not unprecendented. The same rules apply to gateways. I still don't see how this is relative. Aviendha did not try to lift the Seanchan--she says that she could create the shields, tie them off, and then wrap them in air--and that requires no great strength whatsoever.

 

Quote

What comparison? That Cyndane manage to injure Alivia before being driven off despite the fact that she had less than half Alivia's strength? Wherein does that support Alivia being so weak unaided?

If Alivia with *angreal would have been much more than 2 times Cyndane's strength, Alivia should have been able to shield her, IMO.

 

She could have easily--had Cyndane allowed her. Thats were superior knowledge comes in.

 

And incidently i don't see how thats an arguement--irrespective of Alivia's original strength she was twice Cyndane's strength with that angreal.

 

I have more than nothing, but you disagree with me. Must be a matter of opinion.

 

Yes, precisely. This hasn't been a 'Luckers' chart against a 'Nightstrike' chart--my point is that any form of subjective attempt to create a strength list is doomed from the beginning. And by 'nothing', i meant facts. And you do not have them, any more than my list did--i.e. we have nothing to actually sustain Sharina being Lanfear's strength.

 

But we can suggest it, and we can suggest yours--well no, we do have a more reliable number system than yours, but we can suggest Sharina being at a lower level strength. But to place her there on a list? Not a chance. In that you really do have nothing, any more than I do. Do you get what I mean?

 

We can, functionally, deduce that Moridin and Rand are the same strength, and a step below them is Lanfear, and that directly under that comes Aginor, followed very closely by Demandred, Taim and Logain.

 

Beyond that everything goes blurry.

 

Quote

Incidently, in the end she did teach the Aiel how to link, but not until LoC, after she had become Amyrlin.

 

That's the next book. So when did she learn?

 

From Siuan, premsumably. She was in charge of teaching Egwene what she needed to know, and not just limited to the etiqute of an Amyrlin. Irrespective Egwene did not know how to link at the stage you were speaking of.

 

I would have considered the possibility (in both Elaida's and Rand's situation).

 

You are not Rand or Elaida.

 

No, I was suggesting two or three of them. That was what I mentioned.

 

The comment stands. Rand was aware that angreal were tightly controlled by the Tower, why would he expect Rebels to have some.

 

Irrespective, he did not consider that possibility, so its all moot.

 

Not as opposed to, but in combination with! She said she could tie up them and their horses. Rand did it, but she said she could. She shielded 4 sparkers at once, though.

 

What? She never said she'd lift them? Wherein is the combination with lifting things with the power. Aside from which she said that she could bind them with air--binding four people and their horses with air is no great feat--it doesn't even require you divide your flows, Rand bound more than twenty with a single weave. I really do not see how her saying she could bind them suggests anything?

 

And she did not shield four sparkers. She shielded two damane and two sul'dam--technically two sparkers and two untapped learners who were close to touching the source. And why specify that they were sparkers? Doesn't mean they were strong.

 

I suggested some or someone of them probably were (I said varying strength). Many very weak sparkers? I can't name one, but I'm sure there might be someone that have been mentioned. Sharina is one very strong learner, but the majority of the strong ones that we know anything about are sparkers. Bodewhin, Nynaeve, Alivia & Theodrin jumps to my mind.

 

All of the Aes Sedai sparkers for starters--Tarna, Theodrin--who is not especially strong, despite your inclusion of her--Liandrin--others too, lets try ex-damane Karla and Lemore... who were not panicked about like Alivia when they wanted their a'dam removed.

 

More to the point though, you have no basis to sustain that damane should all be of above average strength. Even if there is a skewed strength distribution amongst sparkers, there would still be many at the lower strengths.

 

Not that any of this matters, given Amico's example. Unless these damane were Forsaken level strength that Aviendha was able to hold the two of them after catching them by surprise is no big deal. Even if they were it probably wouldn't be a big deal given Amico held Nynaeve who less than two month later equalled Moghedian.

 

 

 

[Nightstrike]

What variance? Variables by nature skew a distribution, and by RJ's comment this is an exactly even distribution, else, as you stated, we could not predict it--which RJ stated we could.

Even a symmetric curve would be expected to have a mean and a variance. That's two variables that one would expect from any normal distribution. What do you mean by "variables skew the distribution"? Mean and variance are variables that contribute to the distribution in question. Not all distribution curves are the same.

 

I don't know about the skew, maybe it should be more or less expected also? The quote from wikipedia seemed to imply that "in reality" the distribution is skewed...

 

So, at least mean and variance should be known. We don't have all the facts to calculate those. And if there's a skewed distribution, then we don't have that either.

 

I still say we can't know that 100%.

 

 

On what basis?

Shouldn't you have proved we can be sure? Do you want me to prove the negative - that we can't know?

 

No, there were 2 damane and 2 sul'dam. Aviendha senses that the sul'dam can channel too, though she says it is weird, as if they've never tried, and that they are weak.

 

So yes, two Morgase's seem an apt comparison. As for whether we are talking about the same episode I do not know. I actually read the chapter before posting last time, did you?

Ooops, my mistake! Sorry! I didn't actually read the whole chapter, just skimmed some of it. There were two damane. That wouldn't have been more than 1/4 as impressive, then.

 

More impressive that she said she could tie them up with horses and all. Plus, she said in the very same book, that she was as strong as Egwene. I can't find any reason to simply dismiss that altogether, as you did. I don't mean she is exactly the same as Egwene, just that there can't be too much of a difference.

 

Yeah, that was impressive. Especially considering Moiraine's four. Moiraine could have done 4 more impressive weaves, true, but Egwene was dosed with forkroot. Aviendha's shielding of four is another thing than just the average weave, and that should also be taken into consideration.

 

Should it? In light of Amico? In light of the fact that two of those she was shielding were sul'dam who had never channeled--a fact Aviendha knew, and directly stated their relative weakness.

 

What does Egwene being dosed with forkroot have to do with it, by the way? Either she divided her flows fourteen ways or she didn't. And either dividing flows is important, or it isn't.

OK, I was wrong on the damane part since there were only two of them. Dividing the flows are mentioned at least one time in the series and one time in NS to be very taxing/wearing. Dividing two times is more than twice as taxing as a single one and three times more than twice as wearing as two, and so on. Moiraine managing 4 flows simultaneausly puts a perspective. The fact that Aviendha could do 4 simultaneausly (even though 2 were weak) would point towards her being equally strong as Moiraine/Elaida at the time. But since 2 were weak, could Moiraine have managed it? I doubt it, but I'll go along with you on that and dismiss it altogether.

 

Egwene was dosed with forkroot and still managed more flows than any Aes Sedai. That is important - both of those facts! In fact, the two red that guarded her appeared shocked. Two weaves more than twice as taxing as one plus Moiraine managing 4 puts Egwene (managing 14 while she was drugged) higher than...

 

Your own example with Amico shows how weak the 3 Aes Sedai must have been, those that Rand burned out. If Amico could maintain a shield on 3 stronger than herself, then surely 3 Aes Sedai at 45-55 (even without angreal) could keep 1 Rand at 100 shielded, no ? Let me quote you on the subject of Amico: ..."Amico held Nynaeve who less than two months later equalled Moghedien.". She simultaneously kept the shields on both Elayne and Egwene, who both were "more than a match for Liandrin." And Liandrin was stronger than Amico.          

 

 

Beyond that no, the reason Lews Therin is uneasy is because its too evenly matched. Seven average sisters at around 50 contributing around 90% of their strength ends at 315. Rand with an angreal ends between 240 and 290. It makes it close enough to make it possible, especially with superior knowledge of the Power (i.e. Cyndane and Alivia), which Lews Therin had (him being the muttering one). From his point of view the power difference might be overcome, but it was still a chancey thing, one he could definately lose.

Another example of how weak the AS are relative to Rand; we have him thinking "Shielding anyone did take a fair amount of strength. With the angreal, Rand was sure he could make seven shields, even with them embracing saidar already;..." (LoC, The Mirror of Mists). Even with them embracing saidar already........ !!! Dividing the flows 7 ways and shielding them all at once......... !!!

 

 

 

The Aes Sedai cut off strength is 36.5. Siuan stands above the Aes Sedai cut off point--indeed, We've witnessed within the scope of the story six Aes Sedai weaker than Siuan currently is, so she is not even on the cut off point. Given rough analysis her previous strength would have been around 60. Subsequently she stands around 40.

 

She therefore declined around 24%--one quarter her strength.

 

Before she declined in strength she was able to lift three times her own weight, after she isn't even able to lift Gareth--presumably more than her own weight, yet she never even stirs him, so lets say her own weight and be done.

 

Thus the decline in her ability to lift things is greater than the respective decline in her strength. As such the ability to lift things does not mirror strength exactly, rather increase at an exponential rate--at least to a certain degree, we know there are upper limits.

 

This is not unprecendented. The same rules apply to gateways. I still don't see how this is relative. Aviendha did not try to lift the Seanchan--she says that she could create the shields, tie them off, and then wrap them in air--and that requires no great strength whatsoever.

Siuan lifted three times her own weight would put a strain on her OP muscles that should be no more than equal to Aviendha being able to tie up the seanchan group and their horses. Therefore my estimation is that Aviendha is at least equal to the old (stronger) siuan in strength (counting horsepowers - a horse can lift more than one Siuan). The rest of your argument goes back to your own scale, so they stand or fall together.

 

 

 

And incidently i don't see how thats an arguement--irrespective of Alivia's original strength she was twice Cyndane's strength with that angreal.

The difference between, for example, 1.8 times and 2.2 times is substantial. It's 40% of Cyndane's strength and 22.2% between alternatives. I still question how Cyndane could escape Alivia, if Alivia was 1.8 times stronger. It seems incredible! Plus, at some point you WILL get crushed with a shield that skill can't escape.

 

 

 

We can, functionally, deduce that Moridin and Rand are the same strength, and a step below them is Lanfear, and that directly under that comes Aginor, followed very closely by Demandred, Taim and Logain.

Beyond that everything goes blurry.

I'm afraid I will have to disagree before that.

 

 

 

 

So when did she learn?

 

From Siuan, premsumably. She was in charge of teaching Egwene what she needed to know, and not just limited to the etiqute of an Amyrlin. Irrespective Egwene did not know how to link at the stage you were speaking of.

That she said she couldn't link in book 2 (as you said earlier) is no proof she still couldn't in book 5. You said that she couldn't link in book 5, but now you say "from Siuan presumably".

 

 

 

I would have considered the possibility (in both Elaida's and Rand's situation).

 

You are not Rand or Elaida.

LOL, so true! I still expect them to act on what they know or don't know. Or, you know what I mean...

 

 

 

 

Not as opposed to, but in combination with! She said she could tie up them and their horses. Rand did it, but she said she could. She shielded 4 sparkers at once, though.

 

What? She never said she'd lift them? Wherein is the combination with lifting things with the power. Aside from which she said that she could bind them with air--binding four people and their horses with air is no great feat--it doesn't even require you divide your flows, Rand bound more than twenty with a single weave. I really do not see how her saying she could bind them suggests anything?

 

And she did not shield four sparkers. She shielded two damane and two sul'dam--technically two sparkers and two untapped learners who were close to touching the source. And why specify that they were sparkers? Doesn't mean they were strong.

Yeah, mea culpa! Two sparkers. Doesn't mean they would have to be strong, but the probability says one or both are unlikely to be very weak. But still, my argument was flawed (since chances of strength would have been higher with 4). So scratch that!

 

The lifting and the tying up takes horsepower of OP strength.  A single horse is probably strong enough to lift 3 Siuan or more (if attached to a rope or something). So I say they are comparable, aside from the dividing of the flows, which is straining in itself. My estimation is that Aviendha would've had to divide her flows at least 4 ways in order to tie up the mounted Seanchan group, and that's exactly the limit of Moiraine & company. And Aviendha said "I'm may not know as much as Moiraine, but I'm as strong as Egwene". Egwene was stronger than Moiraine in the beginning of the book before she said that. And, earlier in this thread you said: "Furthermore we know for a fact that Egwene exceeded Moiraine's strength long before that--they are directly compared in tSR.". So I have 2 reasons to expect Aviendha to be stronger than Moiraine. How many reasons do you have to expect she is weaker than Moiraine?

 

More to the point though, you have no basis to sustain that damane should all be of above average strength. Even if there is a skewed strength distribution amongst sparkers, there would still be many at the lower strengths.

Since there were only 2 damane, I no longer claim that as evidence for anything. But I just want to point out that I have never tried to argue that all damane are above average strength. I said "varying strength". I still believe that sparker's average OP strength is above learner's average OP strength.

 

 

 

Why would she make that mistake?? A female channeler can sense other's strengths.

 

Egwene doesn't show that skill until encountering Amys. Nearly six months after she first touched the source. It takes practice and time.

 

Irrespective of why, she made the mistake. Thats a fact.

 

Hmm... We were talking about why Aviendha would make the mistake of misjudging Egwene and/or Amys/Melaine in TFoH. It just occured to me that Aviendha shouldn't have done that mistake according to you. You said that Aviendha was able to judge the sul'dam and damane strength in TFoH (A Short Spear). That would make it very likely that she could also judge Egwene/Amys/Melaine. Not to mention how weird it would be if she had stated something about strength, when she really couldn't tell. Why would she have done that (she appears to be a rational woman)? And in the (very) unlikely event of that actually happening, why didn't Egwene say anything about it? Is the mistake a fact?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Luckers:

You don't argue with the man, man.

Luckers:

As an amusing side note, the 'culling of men' is logically unsustainable. The vast majority of male channelers are learners and stay within the gene pool, and even those that do spark often don't until their late twenties, which in their socio-economic setting means they would on average already have children. Several, in fact. Sorry Aes Sedai, try again.

 

The Aes Sedai and Kinswomen not marrying would have a larger impact, though even that would not be that great amongst the one percent of women that can channel.

The lack of inbreading between male and female channelers though would probably have an impact--likely the reason its gone down from 3% in the Age of Legends to 1% now.

 

Robert Jordan's blog, October 2:nd 2005:

For Papazen, while I have spoken of souls being born with the ability to channel in response to questions, I think of it as being genetic also.  In the Age of Legends, between 2 and 3% of people had some ability, following a bell curve distribution in strength.  For over 3000 years, though, Aes Sedai have been removing men who actually learned to channel from the gene pool.  They have been very efficient at this.  As a result, the “present day” sees about 1% of the population who can learn to channel, with a much, much smaller percentage of that being born with the spark.

Amusing or not - who's arguing with the man, man?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Nightstrike]

If anyone is interested in One Power strengths, there is an interesting debate in wotmania's message board right now. Gateways and stuff...

 

http://www.wotmania.com/wotmessageboard2showmessage.asp?MessageID=104548

[Thor]

To say that Alivia would be anywhere near Lanfear's full strength is just ludicrous.  The outcome of their battle is pretty conclusive that Alivia unaided would be weaker than Cyndanne.

 

And Luckers what you said about variance just shows your total lack of knowledge of distributions, there can be no support for you on this matter that is justified.

 

To put that to the test:

Compare the LTT vs Ishamael fight and the Alivia vs Cyndanne fight.

LTT won against Ishamael, won convincingly.

Alivia drove Cyndanne away, got arm blown up.

 

Considering LTT's strength is identical to Ishamael, you can't seriously be expecting us to believe that Alivia's unaided strength is anywhere near Cyndanne's.

[Mr Ares]

To say that Alivia would be anywhere near Lanfear's full strength is just ludicrous. The outcome of their battle is pretty conclusive that Alivia unaided would be weaker than Cyndanne.

Why? Alivia was far stronger in their encounter. This says nothing to their strengths outside this encounter, either way.

[Nightstrike]

80% stronger is a huge advantage, even with less skill. Her being equal with Cyndane would make Alivia with *angreal roughly 160% stronger. That's just... very unlikely... whichever way you choose to look at it... And if we would think Alivia would've been equal or stronger than Lanfear - I'm not even going to consider it for a second, but those who want to assure themselves can do the calculations themselves.

 

Besides, how much stronger would you have to be if you want to be sure to shield someone that's already holding the Power? Rand was only "uneasy" when he might have to face 7 AS (him having his angreal). Later he thought he could shield all 7 at once, while they were holding saidar. Rand with angreal, shielding 7 AS gives rough estimation at (290/((21*7)*0.95)=) 2.07 times. Two weak channelers such as Careane & Vandene linked can probably overcome any of the "13 BA sisters" whilst they're holding saidar (KoD, the House on Full Moon Street) - which also shows us that we shouldn't assume that it would take much more than twice another's strength to overcome someone holding the Power. If Alivia=Cyndane (both unaided), then Alivia with *angreal=2.6 times Cyndane. That would probably result in a shielded Cyndane (even if she's more skilled).

 

 

 

 

[Mr Ares]

That's just... very unlikely... whichever way you choose to look at it...

I can assure you it isn't.

If Alivia=Cyndane (both unaided), then Alivia with *angreal=2.6 times Cyndane. That would probably result in a shielded Cyndane (even if she's more skilled).

You saying it over and over won't make me believe it. She was substantially stronger than Cyndane with the angreal, we don't know how they would compare without, and it was Cyndane's skill that allowed her to escape. That is all. There is absolutely nothing to rule out Alivia at any strength in relation to Cyndane - weaker, equal to or stronger. That is the limit of the facts. You can have your opinion, but there is nothing in the books to make it ludicrous, or very unlikely, or whatever. We know both are very strong, but not how they compare to each other. Fact.

[Thor]

A moderate strength angreal has been known to more than double the strength of the channeler (ie the one Elayne gave to Aviendha).  What makes you think the one Alivia was using can't be that strong?

[Nightstrike]

Medium strength angreal would be at roughly 2.44. And I think one of the weaker ones would make Aviendha roughly twice her own strength (was it mentioned around using bowl of the winds?).

 

That made me think one of the stronger ones (such as the one Alivia uses) would have to be at least 2.6 in strength. But it could be more, of course. And then strength difference between Cyndane and Alivia with *angreal would be even greater than what I've mentioned earlier. I think of 2.6 as an absolute minimum.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Ndshacker]

Here you guys are.... My math is at the side, but if you can understand it.... your doing better than my teachers.

One Power Strength in Females