Civil War Mafia: The Abolitionists Are Coming! Game Over!

[DPR]

 

Oh yeah,

 

Because you totally got caught lying and continue to act guilty:

 

[glow=red,2,300]Dude[/glow]

[the dude]

Aaaaah, D.  I'd think I'd broken your composure, but I know you're too seasoned for that.   ;)

 

Okay guys, this might be on the long side.  :P

 

I was really trying to hold on to the idea of making it to the end of this game alive , I don't see any way that's gonna happen, so let's just run with this for a minute.

 

I viewed DPR last night:  DPR is mafia, with a gambler role.  A gambler can block one person’s role, once per game.  I expect that was my blocked attempt at viewing Jelly.  I suspect that his claim of being a bomb is false, but I can’t say for sure.  My viewing produced no information on that, but to date, my viewings seem to have been pretty complete.  Nevertheless, be prepared to lose a player when he dies.  His noise about being a prisoner is a complete fabrication.

 

Jelly of course is mafia, as I’ve campaigned to convince you all of since I viewed her.

 

Don’t lynch May; she’s my bonus confirmed innocent.  May, I enjoyed the hell out of the confusion caused by your first theft.  Watching Kivam squirm was a pleasure.  It was fun being one of the only ones in on the joke.

 

I don’t know if there are any other mafia, and I’m not going to post any suspicions; in this game they’re as likely to be wrong as not, and I don’t want to taint anyone’s perception.

 

I’m hoping this is going to be enough information for the innocents to take the win on this one; I’d rather not die for nothing here, guys.

 

Some points I’d like to make:

 

I didn’t counterclaim right away because I smelled a mafia plot.  If they were fake-claiming that soon, it’s because they wanted to draw out the finder early and take them out, or otherwise tie up the healer in the mess.  I expect that at the time they were quite disappointed with my lack of cooperation. ;)  

 

Healer, if you protected me on the nights where there was no kill, thanks for the vote of confidence.  Jeebus knows it’s about the only one I got all game. 8)

 

DPR, it was a good try drawing me away from viewing Jelly, but no dice.  You almost had me going for a little while, D, but I caught you, you abolitionist scum. ;)  

 

All you mafia played a good game.  This game gave me a perpetual headache trying to tell up from down.  I knew I was being played and just didn’t know how to get out of it.  If I have my way, you won’t be making it out of this one alive.

 

My main comfort right now is picturing the two of you sweat, along with any compatriots you may still have.  That and having pegged 3 out of 4 mafia so far.

 

Now watch guys, let’s see them scramble.  This should be interesting. =D

 

Don’t believe a damn thing those two say.  You kill me right away, confirm what I’m saying, and win this game.

 

[glow=green,2,300]Vote for the Dude[/glow].  It’s the only way I can see that any of you are going to believe me, so let’s have done with it.  Don’t believe any sudden changes of heart they have about killing me off; lynch me, prove what I’m saying.  Please.

 

One last thing:  a big thanks to whoever took down Sirayn.  She wasn’t especially on my radar, and wouldn’t have made it onto my viewing list for quite some time, possibly too long to be of use.  Whoever you are, you’re the one who won this game for us.  Good stuff.

 

And I’ll have a cigarette before you hang me, if you please. =P

 

[the dude]

*winks at D*

[Alys Kinch]

the player list on the first page has been updated. there are 11 left.

 

the day will probably last through sunday. i don't know a time. i have a wedding this weekend, so i have no idea. but if you make the day quick, you might get cookies... :P

 

the dude, dpr, dae, may, luthine, blig as bcx, loki, leelou, soyo, verbal, and jelly are still alive.

[the dude]

thanks, alys.  :)

[Alys Kinch]

btw, that makes 6 to lynch.

[the dude]

i wish i could see the pm's that are flying around right now.

[Daetirion]

Well i can't say i didn't expect it

 

We started this with 18 players - we've got Sirayn and Kivam. If we believe TheDude we would have another 2, Jelly and DPR, leading to 4 mafia (well 3 + symp). That aint all of them, but it'll be damn close to it.

 

I must say i haven't believed you since that late reveal. That and Jelly just seems innocent. I'm tempted to drop back to yesterdays theorem, which in retrospect we possibly should have pushed through. We can lynch theDude to prove him correct, but then we've lost a finder. Or we could lynch Jelly, which will either prove TheDude correct or will instantly incriminate him. Finally we have an option to lynch DPR - risky given his reveal but wouldn't mean losing a single finder claimant.

 

He was on both the Thorum vote on day 1 (3rd position) and on the Blig vote. He was one of the last to vote on Kivam (all going by my post on pg 72). Whether this incriminates him remains to be seen... it could do.

 

And yet this still doesn't address one major major issue. Why did you lie? i just don't get that part at all. That and i appear to be on the high suspicion list because of not believing a frankly odd claim, combined with the fact the sheer amount of the activity on your part makes it seem as if you are part of some master plan aimed at winning this.

The thing to remember here is, Sirayn advocated a Jelly lynch over theDude. A proven Mafia player clearly anti Jelly. Quite possibly however this is either Kivam gambit, or prosecuting then because Jelly was fairly safe from lynch.

 

The theories are messing with my head here.

 

Ok, another thing to consider. DPR has claimed a prisoner role (pg 56 for those interested). He's pushing in this post to test the Finders as i was and everything else. However if he was the roleblocker it makes a degree of sense, because he could seize on blocking his viewing to make him look more guilty.

 

Right screw it, we've got 3 possible lynches - DPR, TheDude and Jelly. Lynching any could lead to a lot of potential harm, depending on whom we agree with. However once lynched, we would know who is telling the truth.

[glow=red,2,300]

Lynch DPR[/glow]

 

Will consider this further, but if im right, DPR's been playing me alongside him nicely

 

[Luthine]

I LOVE IT!

 

Ok, I know my instincts haven't been that good lately but this rings so true to my ears, and Vemy pretty much said so on Day 1.

I'll go re-read for more convincing arguments to back this up but right now, I fell pretty much comfy in voting [glow=red,2,300]DPR [/glow]

 

And dude, don't surrender till you're dead!!! ;)

[Luthine]

Phew, nice to see I'm not the only thinking along those lines

*blows kisses to Dae*

[the dude]

heh, daet, here's the thing.  the alignment thing that loki dredged up really was an issue of faulty memory.  i was distracted at the time, and obviously i would take that post back if i could, but here we are.  the dude is sometimes...  a little iffy in the memory/thinking-things-through department.  it's a mistake that pushed me over the edge to this decision.  after the endless debate we've had about this, frankly the most expedient thing to do now that i've secured 2 mafia is to go with the one sure-fire way to prove myself.

 

;D  luthine, i appreciate the sympathy and support.  seriously, it's been nice having you mostly on my side throughout.  this is only partial surrender.  i think it's a sound tactic, in that we have a good enough buffer of innocent players to make viable a plan of lynching me today, jelly and DPR on the next 2 days, even allowing for 2 innocents dying along the way in night kills.  *blows kisses right back*

 

a 3rd mafia would make this more dangerous, but i'm hoping you guys can catch the last one.

 

of course, if you're willing to let me live instead...  8)

[the dude]

i gotta admire you for sticking to your guns, jelly.  seriously, you've been masterful this game.  all honor and glory to the mafia jelly.  :D

[Daetirion]

The thing is, we have only DPR's word that he isn't guilty, despite appearing so. Combined with the fact that any lynch on him is claimed will kill some of us, well its a perfect role reveal for a Mafia to hide behind in many ways. Soon find out, one way or the other.

 

Although it doesn't explain why Jelly viewed him as evil. Actually, if you had both viewed him and he came up as guilty, this would allow him to cement his 'role'. Anyways, enough random musings from me. Logic as ever doesn't appear to be contained within this brain, so we shall soon see whether it's worked

[the dude]

like i said, i doubt he's a bomb, but if it helps, i'm willing to throw down the last vote on him.  if nothing else, it will be extremely gratifying.  8)

[Verbal32]

The thing is, we have only DPR's word that he isn't guilty, despite appearing so. Combined with the fact that any lynch on him is claimed will kill some of us, well its a perfect role reveal for a Mafia to hide behind in many ways. Soon find out, one way or the other.

 

Although it doesn't explain why Jelly viewed him as evil. Actually, if you had both viewed him and he came up as guilty, this would allow him to cement his 'role'. Anyways, enough random musings from me. Logic as ever doesn't appear to be contained within this brain, so we shall soon see whether it's worked

 

Dae, you make good sense here, but I'm nervous about lynching a "potential" bomb.  If there are any more mafia that the ones that the dude is stating, then having a bomb go off could lose us the game.  I'm not sure I'm ready to take that risk.

 

Dude - you're still #1 on my list because of what Loki found, but I'm willing to sit back and wait a little bit and see what some of the others have to say, once they catch up and post.

 

*take a cigarette out for himself, and hands another to the dude*

 

Ya know, just in case you end up needing one.  ;)

[the dude]

thanks, verby.  :)

 

honestly, i've been resigned to dying for the last couple days (not in-game, but during the interminable last night phase). 

 

at this point, all things considered, i'm willing to accept a vote for me or a vote for DPR.  they're both gonna accomplish the same thing in the end.  the bomb thing is risky, and i'm a little nervous about the possibility of another mafia being out there, but the game's been looking better to me since my last viewing.

[Leelou]

See my gut is telling me that you (Wes), Jelly and Dude are all lying liars who lie, but I don't have much to back it. This is why my vote will stay on Jelly. Also I've played the whole "I'm a bomb" role as mafia in the Nuthouse game, so it would not surprise me if you tried it.

 

 

I'm for lynchin any of the above mentioned and will go with [glow=red,2,300]Wes[/glow]

[Daetirion]

One thing i've been musing over is the likelyhood of the role being set from the moderators point of view. As it is, Gambler would fit slightly better within the storyline, although both could be dodgy. I don't get why, since Kivam died he's turned into a bomb. I dont see the logic behind setting that as a requirement or as a neccessity. Beyond that, provided DPR isn't a bomb, we lose less killing him then we do killing either potential finder.

 

Yeah, im still worried about another Mafia out there. I view it was likely. Therefore if we can take a Finder forward, we have a chance of catching him/her quicker

 

Still reckon DPR needs to be about to defend himself mind, and i still don't like the holding back of information for any reason

[the dude]

bit of math here.  feel free to point out any mistakes i make.

 

We have 11 players now.  Let's say there are 2 mafia for the first example, we'll move on to 3 in a second.

 

Example 1:

 

Today:  Lynch me.  This leaves us 10 players, in a 10-2 split.

 

Night kill brings us to tomorrow with 9-2.

 

Lynch one of the confirmed mafia = 9-1

 

Another night kill = 8-1

 

Next day is end game, innocents win.

 

Example 2:

 

If we kill DPR today, either he's a bomb or he's not.  I'll gladly volunteer to lay down the last vote.  

 

2A - DPR = Bomb

 

9-2 right now will go to 8-1 (me dead, DPR dead).  After a night kill, it will be 7-1 (by the way, I'm working off the worst case scenario that the healer doesn't successfully block a kill - it's just the safest assumption).

 

Tomorrow Day - We kill the last mafia, and win.  

 

If he's not a bomb, it just means that we'll have 1 more innocent alive at the end of the game, but we're still working on a nice majority in this scenario.

 

Now, looking at the 3 mafia possibility, it'll go a little differently, and the stickiest part is that we don't know who the 3rd is, if there is one.  

 

Today:

 

Kill me:  Progression will go:  

 

Currently:  7-3

 

End of current day cycle:  7-2

 

End of next night cycle:  6-2

 

End of tomorrow's day cycle:  6-1

 

Without finding the third mafia, it'll look like this (ish)

 

End of following night:  5-1

 

End of Day:  4-1

 

End of Night:  3-1

 

End of Day:  2-1

 

End of Night:  1-1 MAFIA WINS

 

That's.... 3 days to find the last one?  I think that's right, correct me if I'm wrong.  

 

If we kill DPR today, and he's a bomb, then we're starting tomorrow's day cycle at 6-2 (with me and DPR dead, plus a night kill), which is rough.  If he's not a bomb we're at 7-2, and we've still got a finder.

 

I think that covers it?

 

 

[the dude]

i'll keep this post short, daet.  :P

 

the reason i've been dodgy is that the mafia are playing super, SUPER tricky this game, and i'm trying to leave as few openings as possible.  the way things have gone, i half-expected DPR to jump in after my reveal of viewing him with some convoluted reason why we can't lynch me, and why we whould lynch some random innocent instead.  i wanted him to vote for me, so that it would look weird for him to backtrack afterwards.  which it will, at this point.

 

and by all means, i'm very much looking forward to hearing what D has to say.  ;D

[the dude]

oh christ.....  math.....

 

Today:

 

Kill me:  Progression will go: 

 

Currently:  8-3

 

End of current day cycle:  7-3

 

End of next night cycle:  6-3

 

End of tomorrow's day cycle:  6-2

 

End of next night:  5-2

 

End of next Day:  5-1

 

Without finding the third mafia, it'll look like this (ish)

 

End of following night:  4-1

 

End of Day:  3-1

 

End of Night:  2-1

 

That Day:  2-1

 

That's a sticky place to be.  That's the day we'd have to get the last mafia.  Someone count that please:  i seem incapable....  :P

[Alys Kinch]

we are all doing sloppy math lately, i'd say. :P

[Daetirion]

If i comment on that, will i get Modkilled Alys?

 

:P

[the dude]

heh, yeah alys, and this really isn't the time for me to be making those mistakes..  :P

[the dude]

just a timely warning:  from my count, 2 more votes will secure DPR's lynch.  since we do have to consider the possibility of the bomb scenario, i'd council anyone else to be careful with their vote.  the next one's not in danger, but that last vote is sticky and might get someone killed.  since i counted myself a dead man already, i'm willing to take the risk, and also, i'd just really like to put the nail in the coffin.  :P