The Shadow comes to Tar Valon ..... and does what?

[Tenshin_Xo]

Break the seals and release him completely?

At his most dangerous the DO may become most vulnerable. Cyndane may have been recycled to access Lanfear's knowledge of opening the bore.

[RobertAlexWillis]

True, but i meant in reguards to the stability of the light.

 

Which has been my point all along. Who cares how stable the Light is, if Shai'tan gets loose? They don't have to destroy the Light, they just have to keep the Light occupied until they can do whatever it takes to break the big dog out. Maybe that is accomplished by destroying the Light, but we don't know that.

 

I have this niggling feeling that there is a great big lie we don't know about somewhere. We both agree that Taim is a Darkfriend. So why did he bring a seal to Rand? Why did he get terrified when Rand almost broke it? There's something we don't know here, and until we know it, both of us are stabbing in the dark.

 

Break the seals and release him completely?

At his most dangerous the DO may become most vulnerable.

 

I think that's RAND's plan. The Shadow apparently has something different in mind, since Taim gave a seal to Rand.

 

Cyndane may have been recycled to access Lanfear's knowledge of opening the bore.

 

I doubt that. The Dark One had a long time in the lead-up to the War of the Power to debrief her on that, assuming he didn't know exactly what she did when she first did it.

 

There is something we don't know about the nature of the Bore and the seals ... some hidden trap I personally think is going to turn out to be more dangerous than a billion Trollocs and ten thousand Dreadlords. Militarily, I just don't see the Shadow challenging the Light once Rand, the Seanchan, and the Tower are all in their temporary alliance.

[Luckers]

Well, again, we know that Rand has the ability to oppose the Dark One. To stop him. And we know HE knows this.

 

Your elaborate theory isn't needed to explain the war between light and shadow. The Shadow may not need anyone destroyed for the dark one to escape, and we have never had any direct indication in the texts that it does. All we know is that the Shadow needs the light destroyed because the light apparently have the ability foil the shadow.

[RobertAlexWillis]

All we know is that the Shadow needs the light destroyed because the light apparently have the ability foil the shadow.

 

Depending on what it takes to get Shai'tan out, delay might be as effective as death. We simply don't know. If killing Rand was the ultimate goal, one shot of True Power balefire in Shadar Logoth was an absolutely perfect opportunity. Moridin saving him there has always been an odd sequence to me, because it was before they "crossed the streams", but after Moridin had seemingly given up on converting him. I don't understand it, but it indicates there's something else going on here.

 

So we don't know he has to be killed. We assume that Moridin is keeping him alive out of selfishness, but we don't know that.

 

Until we know exactly what it takes to get Shai'tan out, we don't know what the Shadow's ultimate tactical goal is, so this is all just speculation.

 

Jordan has consistently shown us glimpses of the Shadow's plans and resources. There simply has been no indication of some of the things you're speculating exist.

 

Could they exist? Sure. I'm not saying "There's no possibility you're right." But in my opinion its not likely. I could be wrong. So could you. If we're lucky, we're both wrong.

[Luckers]

The issue is, im not speculating anything. I'm saying that this is all we have at the moment. Your the one who has been speculating some masterplan of the Dark One's that has not been seen, ive only shown their actions to date, all of which have been directed solely at the defeat of the light. Now there is room there for them to have had you agenda and have taken those steps, but that doesn't change the fact that all we have seen is those steps.

 

Your theory has absolutely no support--oh, it certainly could be the case, there is not stopping it, but there is nothing to suggest it. The fact is that we dont even know for sure that the Dark One intends the destruction of the wheel. We've all speculated, and i certainly feel that is the case, but there is not even evidence for that. Much less the isea that to do so the Dark One needs to kill off as many people as possible. And even if THAT is the case, then there is no evidence suggesting that the Dark One and Moridin wouldn't actively persue an aggressive campeign designed, with his full support, to defeat the light militaristically.

 

It's speculation on top of speculation on top of speculation. And whilst i concider some of that speculation incredibly likely, we must keep in mind that it is just speculation, and that all we really know is that the Shadow has wholeheartedly saught the defeat of the light in the past, taking measures to curtail the growth of their strength and their unity, and that all we have seen to date of their present actions indicates a similar passage of action.

 

As for Moridin not killing Rand, you know as well as i do that there are reasons for him to avoid Rand's death that have no need for an attrition plan on behalf of the Dark One.

[RobertAlexWillis]

The issue is, im not speculating anything. I'm saying that this is all we have at the moment.

 

Um ... you're speculating about a massive future attack on Tar Valon, aren't you?

 

ive only shown their actions to date, all of which have been directed solely at the defeat of the light.

 

No, you've been predicting future actions that use a complete reversal of the methodology we've seen from them in these books. We have not seen the use of Dreadlords in battle. We haven't seen large numbers of Trollocs descend from the Blight. That doesn't mean these things won't happen, but it does mean that you're doing more than just pointing out "their actions to date."

 

Now there is room there for them to have had you agenda and have taken those steps, but that doesn't change the fact that all we have seen is those steps.

 

Would you apply the same logic to the fact that there has been no major military action during this story set? One could be coming, but we haven't seen it yet. We're both speculating on clues. You're irritated that I'm saying so many of my positions are "obvious" when you think they aren't. But you're doing the same thing.

 

You think they will attack Tar Valon. So do I, actually. But it isn't something we've SEEN. So don't try to discount my arguments on a basis that you won't apply to your own, please. The only plans and actions we've SEEN from the Shadow this time around have been based solely in manipulation and deceit. What I've done is point out places and times where, if military means was their preferred method, they could have used them to devastating effect. That they did not suggests that either they are stupid, or they have a different way to achieve their ultimate goal.

 

The fact is that we dont even know for sure that the Dark One intends the destruction of the wheel.

 

Now THAT is true. Its an assumption I make, and one I think you agree with, that informs the speculation I'm making here. It could be wrong, in which case all my stuff goes out the window.

 

Thats why for the last few posts I've been saying "Neither of us knows enough to do more than speculate."

 

It's speculation on top of speculation on top of speculation.

 

LOL ... have you seen my last several posts ... in which I said things like:

 

"Until we know exactly what it takes to get Shai'tan out, we don't know what the Shadow's ultimate tactical goal is, so this is all just speculation."

 

and

 

"There's something we don't know here, and until we know it, both of us are stabbing in the dark."

 

and

 

"Spring Shai'tan. Since we don't know what that takes, its very hard to anticipate their strategy."

 

Thats one sentence each from my last three posts. So are you just agreeing with me or what? Notice I included myself in the "speculating" category. I know, and have previously admitted that I am very much speculating. I think it is reasonable speculation, given what we know, but I could be wrong.

 

As for Moridin not killing Rand, you know as well as i do that there are reasons for him to avoid Rand's death that have no need for an attrition plan on behalf of the Dark One.

 

Like? There are reasons now, with the link between them, but at the time I pointed out (before they crossed the streams in Shadar Logoth) what was his reason? There was no link at that point. Why is the Dark One (or Moridin) more eager to turn him than to kill him? Obviously killing him doesn't ruin the entire plan, since Ishamael did try that a couple of times. So what is the reason? I would be very interested in your ideas on this, because to me its an oddity for which I have no explanation. Surely it isn't easier to turn him than to kill him. So why?

[Luckers]

Um ... you're speculating about a massive future attack on Tar Valon, aren't you?

 

Not in that response i wasn't. I was addressing only the intentions of Moridin and the Dark One towards the Light.

 

No, you've been predicting future actions that use a complete reversal of the methodology we've seen from them in these books. We have not seen the use of Dreadlords in battle. We haven't seen large numbers of Trollocs descend from the Blight. That doesn't mean these things won't happen, but it does mean that you're doing more than just pointing out "their actions to date."

 

Well, aside from the Trolloc Wars and the War of the Shadow, you'd be utterly correct. Pity then that both of those are actions they've undertaken.

 

Would you apply the same logic to the fact that there has been no major military action during this story set? One could be coming, but we haven't seen it yet. We're both speculating on clues. You're irritated that I'm saying so many of my positions are "obvious" when you think they aren't. But you're doing the same thing.

 

Well, i dont know about you, but i imagine the Trolloc Wars and the War of the Power was pretty obvious... so, no. I dont agree with your comparison.

 

LOL ... have you seen my last several posts ...

 

Yes. I have. My comment was not about your acknowledgement of the speculation we have both undertaken, it was about the facts that are not a part of those speculations--specifically, for clarity, you implied that my position about the intentions of the shadow reguarding the importance of war on the light, and their defeat, as being equally speculative as your position that they seek destruction of the light because it is a step in freeing the dark one. This is not the case, and that was what i was addressing.

 

In the last three thousand years we have seen the shadow employ decisive military campeigns against the shadow. And we have seen it acknowledged that the Light is a threat... not just a tool, whose destruction furthers their plans, but a threat to those plans. Those two things are not speculation.

 

but at the time I pointed out (before they crossed the streams in Shadar Logoth) what was his reason?

 

This rather amuses me, since it was you the explained it so eloquently in one of the 'why no-kill order'. Its simple. Rand represents an ongoing threat to the Dark One, not just in this life but in the turnings of the wheel. Should he be turned, the value to the shadow would be immeasurable. Its why the Forsaken fear him becoming Nae'blis, and why Ishamael and later Moridin avoided killing him.

[DemandredFO]

I must say I like your Demandred, Moridin dialogues, Moridin has an office? :lol:

[Tenshin_Xo]

Dont ask what kind of decorations Moridin uses for his personal space.

 

As far as the seal and Taim goes, we have characters talking about how feelings of malevolence and what not radiate from them.(the wonder girls, etc) We also know they are the focal point for the cap on the bore, the one part of the pattern the DO can touch freely. What if they now act as a focal point for the pressure he exerts on the cap? Maybe the seal Rand has will allow the DO to speed up the taint's effects, or possibly they act like the palantiri in LoTR.

[Luckers]

Sure he has an office. It's a Time-share piece. And he decorates with ikea--the evil overlord of furniture.

[Tenshin_Xo]

You and your vacuole-ic humor. :lol:

[RobertAlexWillis]

I was addressing only the intentions of Moridin and the Dark One towards the Light.

 

Intention: (n) a course of action that one intends to follow; an aim that guides action, an objective.

 

How is addressing their intentions not inherently speculating on future action?

 

Well, aside from the Trolloc Wars and the War of the Shadow, you'd be utterly correct. Pity then that both of those are actions they've undertaken.

 

and

 

Well, i dont know about you, but i imagine the Trolloc Wars and the War of the Power was pretty obvious... so, no. I dont agree with your comparison.

 

Those occurred in situations that by your own admission were different than the ones they're in now. In both cases, they openly used their many Dreadlords from the opening of the conflict. So their actions this time around (in these books, as I specifically stipulated) have already diverged from the previous pattern.

 

specifically, for clarity, you implied that my position about the intentions of the shadow reguarding the importance of war on the light, and their defeat, as being equally speculative as your position that they seek destruction of the light because it is a step in freeing the dark one.

 

Because it is. There is no evidence other than your own speculation that war was ever more than a means to another end, because the Shadow was never able to finish what it was trying to do. Just because open military action was a more prevalent method in earlier conflicts does not mean that it was either the primary objective in those conflicts, or that it will be the primary objective in this conflict.

 

And we have seen it acknowledged that the Light is a threat... not just a tool, whose destruction furthers their plans, but a threat to those plans.

 

But we don't know in what WAY the Light was a threat. You assume that it is a military threat, because it evoked a military response in the past. But without knowing the ultimate mechanism for the Dark One's release, we don't know either the Shadow's ultimate goal or the means by which the Light is a threat.

 

Rand represents an ongoing threat to the Dark One, not just in this life but in the turnings of the wheel. Should he be turned, the value to the shadow would be immeasurable. Its why the Forsaken fear him becoming Nae'blis, and why Ishamael and later Moridin avoided killing him.

 

Not if the Wheel is broken. If turning Rand is so important, then why did Ishamael finally try to kill him in the Stone? Why would Moridin work so hard to place someone over himself? If the Dark One really does intend to destroy the Wheel, then why would it matter? When Moridin ponders that incident during his musings over shah'rah, his only negative thoughts about his attempt to kill Rand regard the personal pain it caused him. Was that just a reference to his death? Or did the Dark One punish him for almost wrecking the plan? If so, why has the Shadow missed opportunities to forcibly turn him?

 

Mesaana knew when he had been taken during Lord of Chaos in Cairhien. That expedition was led by the Black Ajah. Surely she could gated in with a number of Dreadlords, taken custody of him, and turned him then and there. If his turning is the key to the whole plan, then why would the Shadow wait? Instead, according to what was apparently the plan, they "Let the Lord of Chaos rule". Why? Yes, Mesaana may not have personally wanted to put someone in a position over herself, but Shaidar Haran was already on the scene by that time, and Mesaana's plan was known to Demandred and therefore almost certainly to Shai'tan. If turning Rand is the key, why would Shai'tan not enforce his will here?

 

There are simply too many unanswered questions for either of us to say what their intentions are. Until we know the mechanism by which Shai'tan can be completely freed, and what he intends to do with the world after it is his, we can't know for sure what he plans to do. If his only goal is the ultimate descruction of the world, and he can get free even with Rand dead, then I don't think what you propose makes sense. But those are both speculative assumptions that I make. I wish you would admit the assumptions you're making as well.

[Luckers]

Intention: (n) a course of action that one intends to follow; an aim that guides action, an objective.

 

How is addressing their intentions not inherently speculating on future action?

 

Easy, when its the examination of why they took actions in the past.

 

Those occurred in situations that by your own admission were different than the ones they're in now. In both cases, they openly used their many Dreadlords from the opening of the conflict. So their actions this time around (in these books, as I specifically stipulated) have already diverged from the previous pattern.

 

I'm sorry, i dont understand your objection. In those times Ishamael oversaw decisive military compeigns. And no, i said the Trolloc Wars was different in intent. Irrespective it is the same in action. The War of the Power is the same in both.

 

So yeah, i really dont understand your objection.

 

Because it is. There is no evidence other than your own speculation that war was ever more than a means to another end, because the Shadow was never able to finish what it was trying to do. Just because open military action was a more prevalent method in earlier conflicts does not mean that it was either the primary objective in those conflicts, or that it will be the primary objective in this conflict.

 

Which is all nice and dandy and absolutely irrelevant. The only FACT we have, is that they enacted a decisive and strategically planned war.

 

In any case i think your logic there is fallacious. The enaction of a decisive war is evidence of the appreciation of victory on their part. What there is no evidence of is this idea that attrition was the goal. And that my friend, is rather the point i was making.

 

But we don't know in what WAY the Light was a threat. You assume that it is a military threat, because it evoked a military response in the past. But without knowing the ultimate mechanism for the Dark One's release, we don't know either the Shadow's ultimate goal or the means by which the Light is a threat.

 

Actually we do know which way it is that they are a threat. Specifically we know that the Dark One fears intentional action by the Dragon and the light against him, implying a contest. We know this. And sorry, but the light being a threat by simply not dying is not supported by what we know.

 

As for the rest, im not going to respond to it. You know the answers anyway, ive heard you speak them.

[RobertAlexWillis]

Easy, when its the examination of why they took actions in the past.

 

But all of this grows out of your prediction of the future. Its purely disingenous to pretend that your assessments are unconnected.

 

So yeah, i really dont understand your objection.

 

Obviously, which is very confusing to me, since it seems very simple.

 

In those times Ishamael oversaw decisive military compeigns.

 

They were hardly "decisive". They resolved nothing. Both sides emerged with their ultimate goal unaccomplished. The military campaigns did not accomplish their goal. Therefore, becuase the action never reached final resolution on either side, we don't know what the underlying tactical goal of the Shadow was, because they never accomplished it.

 

All military action is a means to an end. Only by knowing that end can the appropriate action be determined or predicted. Since we don't know the mechanism for achieving the Shadow's ultimate end (because we can only speculate as to the actual nature of that end, as you pointed out) then we don't know WHY the Shadow used military means in the past We also don't know if, in the current situation, they have the means or motive to use similar methods.

 

But the only evidence we have in these books is that they do not. They have not used overt military methods, even when there have been opportunities to do so. That suggests that for some reason, military methods have not been desirable in this current crisis. Whether that is due to a lack of resources (one reason we haven't seen hundreds of Dreadlords might be because there AREN'T hundreds of Dreadlords), or some other metaphysical reason, I don't know. And neither do you, unless you've been interviewing RJ clandestinely, because it isn't in the books we have so far.

 

The only FACT we have, is that they enacted a decisive and strategically planned war.

 

No. It was strategically planned, but it was not decisive, because they did not accomplish their ultimate end. And that fact means the information we have is insufficient to determine their actual intent, because they never finished.

 

There can be many reasons for war, and many different desired outcomes. War is a tool. Just as a saw or a hammer can be used for many purposes, so can war. It can be used to take land, to build a physical and political empire. It can be used to simply kill a person or group of people. It can be used as a distraction. Unless we know the ultimate goal of the people planning the war, we cannot be sure how or if military force will be applied.

 

Specifically we know that the Dark One fears intentional action by the Dragon and the light against him, implying a contest.

 

What kind of action? What kind of contest? Without knowing that, we can't know what the winning move for either side was or will be, or what the Shadow will do to try to prevent it. I've pointed out that it must not be as simple as just killing or even forcibly turning Rand, because the Shadow has had chances to do both, and has not done it.

 

As for the rest, im not going to respond to it. You know the answers anyway, ive heard you speak them.

 

Huh? Please feel free to quote the times when you've "heard me speak them". Thats twice now in this thread you've accused me of double talk, and in neither case have you offered anything other than your bald assertion.

 

Why would I ask those questions if I knew the answer? And why can't you answer them simply if its so obvious?

[Mat is the Boss]

The Fall of Manetheren can indicate how sucessful a Trolloc assault on Tar Valon will be.

 

1. The trollocs outnumbered the Light in Manetheren, and will again at TV

 

2. The Shadow had Dreadlords fighting against Manetheren, and will have Dreadlords at TV

 

3. The White Tower refused to come to Manetherens aid(which is the reason the Red Amyrlin was desposed), though some individual Aes Sedai must have travelled along with their army. Let`s be generous and say 50 Aes Sedai helped defend Manetheren. Egwene will have about 1500 channelers at TV(more if the Seanchan is present with their damane). Even if we remove 300 of the Black Ajah, and 500 dead in fighting the Seanchan, it leaves Egwene with 700 channelers. That`s alot more than Manetheren had.

 

4. Manetheren held the Trollocs at a river, no fortification was mentioned, but even if they had any, they wouldn`t be a match to the Shining walls. And River Erinin is wider then any river in Manetheren, adding to the defence.

 

5. The Manetheren army was already exhausted from a long travel when they begun defending themselves against the Shadows forces. Egwene`s forces have been resting for several weeks, but let`s say they`re exhausted from fighting the Seanchan.

 

6. The Waygate in Manetheren wasn`t used by the Shadow, the one in TV will be used.

 

Based on this info I would say that Tar Valon has a greater chance of holding the Trollocs on the other side of the river. When we know that Manetheren hold the Trollocs back for 10 days before they were defeated, it seems unlikely that TV will fall, Egwene would send for help within a day, Elayne alone could come to her aid with 100 channelers.

With a surprise attack Trollocs may reach into TV, perhaps to the Tower itself, but they will be defeated once the Lights forces(Egwenes, Elaidas, and the Seanchan) turn their attention towards them.

 

That`s my oppinion anyway.

[RobertAlexWillis]

Well ... in the interest of avoiding irritation, I'm going to draw a line under my participation in this thread. I started it to hear other ideas, and I have. Thanks to everyone! For those with whom I disagree, we'll see what happens, and if I'm wrong, then I'm wrong.

 

As I've said before, hopefully we'll be lucky and Jordan will surprise us all. So, see you guys around.

[Guest Anonymous!]

Mat, that is why I tried to take the river out of the equation. The Erinin is too defensible.

[cloglord]

I'm not trying to ressurect this thread, but I did stumble across a very good and thorough description of one of the bridges leadinf out of Tar Valon, the Alindaer gate. Since I figured that the construction and defensibility of these bridges was so important I thought I'd post it here.

 

Nearly an hour after leaving the Tower, they [suian and Moraine] reached the Alindaet Gate, wide enough for five or six wagons abreast to pass uncrowded and flanked by tall towers with crenellated tops. There were towers all along the city's high white walls, thrusting out into the rive, but none so tall or strong as the bridge towers. The huge bronze-strapped gates stood wide open, yet guardsmen atop the gate towers were keeping watch, ready to order them winched shut, and two dozen more at the side of the road, carrying halberds, kept an eye on the very few who passed by....The bridges themselves were marvels, constructed with the aid of the one power, stone laceworkarching nearly a mile to solid ground beyond the marshy riverbank, unsupported that whole way and high enough at the center for the largest rivership to sail beneath

 

New Spring Chapter 4

[RobertAlexWillis]

The bridges themselves were marvels, constructed with the aid of the one power, stone laceworkarching nearly a mile to solid ground beyond the marshy riverbank, unsupported that whole way and high enough at the center for the largest rivership to sail beneath

 

Thanks for that. I had been looking for a description of the bridges, but I tend to overlook New Spring in my searches.