The Shadow comes to Tar Valon ..... and does what?

[Luckers]

Well, he did have just over a million troops, whose discipline made up for their lack of size (including a good number of mounted troops and elephants). He didn't have flying beasts, but frankly, Draghkar are assasins, not assault troops. A couple hundred organized archers can keep them at bay. They're fragile in the air and can't hypnotize whole groups. And it was only through betrayal that Xerxes pushed his way through at Thermopylae ... Ephialtes (an former leader of Greek colonies) led a portion of the Persian army in the night through the pass of Anopaea. Also, the Theban contingent did defect between the second and third day (between 1/3 and 1/5 of the force).

 

Again, i dont know your historical reference, I do know the situation at the Tower. We have not seen draghkar used in battle. We do know know them to be fragile in the air. Thre rest id the description you show does not seem to me to be comprable to the Tower situation. Given that i do not know the situation and what you describe does not seem to be readily comprable, i cannot really address it.

 

The important thing here is 1) Thermopylae was not even CLOSE to being as defensible as Tar Valon, and 2) The greek force was less than a tenth of the size of the force in Tar Valon, a twentieth if the rebel and Tower armies combine.

 

Thats why I said, "The Shadow may have an Ephialtes in Alviarin, but the Waygate has no Anopaea." You can't bypass the Waygate or the Walls of Tar Valon. The whole package is thoroughly more defensible than the pass at Thermopylae.

 

This Ephialtes... he could channel?

 

Not comprable.

 

Has a Waygate ever been blown open from the inside?

 

Yes, it has.

 

Or the outside, assuming that the Black Ajah could do THAT without anyone noticing. You're basing your strategy on something we don't even know can be done.

 

Again, it has been done, so there is no assumption involved in suggesting the black ajah can do that. Aside from that where does 'without anyone noticing' come in. Did you read my post. I mean i get that your trying to twist evidence... suddenly you dont think even 1 in 5 aes sedai could be black were before you've said you found 1 in 3 to be conservative, suddenly a million trollocs are inconsequential, suddenly there are no other channelers in the myriad organisations who are darkfriends...

 

but 'without anyone noticing'. Let me quote myself.

 

First of all the dreadlords with the invading force blow open the Gate. The explosion is massive, a complete surprise.

 

But these soldiers are well trained. They recover instantly. Raise bows, devide flows. Prepare. They are going to contain this Waygate.

 

Hmm... seems to me i said the explosion happened in front of thousands of people... how precisely do none of them notice? Certainly its shocking, but not really secretive.

 

PAY ATTENTION TO THIS

 

Sorry, i dont mean to sound like a pain, but i did say this very clearly in my last post. Waygates can be blown open by channelers, even when locked. Loial warns of this. Moiraine does this. Its not questionable... so i dont get you saying that i am basing my strategy on something that we dont even know can be done. WE DO KNOW THIS.

 

A circle of 13 with a sa'angreal destroyed a Waygate once. Loial didn't say it produced a useful passage, or that anyone moved through it safely. He equated it to destroying the gate. (TSR ch. 43) For clarity, allow me to quote:

 

"A Waygate was destroyed once, less than five hundred years after the Breaking, according to Damelle ... But she wrote that it was very difficult, and required thirteen Aes Sedai working together with a sa'angreal." He goes on to describe other attempts with lesser groups that failed.

 

I addressed that. Its hard, dangerous, deadly even. And i conceded the posibility. You want to discuss that, fine. Discuss it. But your going to have to address what has been said.

 

He speculates later in the same speech "I suppose an Aes Sedai could cut a hole in it." (after both leaves were removed). It had never been done.

 

We've never seen it done successfully. Thats a little bit of a shaky basis, I would say.

 

We have seen it done successfully. Which i addressed.

 

Who is there to teach the Black Ajah? Alviarin clearly didn't know it, and even the tricks she has picked up she's forbidden to share. The wonder girls and Rand have learned lots of cool stuff thats not available to the Black Ajah at large. I can't recall any instance of the Black Ajah using inverted weaves. Rand learned it from Asmodean, the wonder girls learned it from the Moghedien. Even Cadsuane and co. don't know it, or why wouldn't they have taught the defenders at the Cleansing? Cadsuane may know it NOW, but the knowledge is not widespread, especially in Tar Valon.

 

Now im concerned. All the rebels know invertion. What series have you been reading? We have SEEN them use it. Casually. Leane, Cadsuane, Suine, Beonin, Sareitha, Careane. Alviarin doesn't know it because the Tower Aes Sedai dont know it. You see Robert, they didn't have a captive Forsaken to learn from. That knowledge will have spread by the time this takes place, though. Already it spreads through the Tower because of Beonin.

 

You're telling me a beachead of say, 500 Trollocs could hold the gate against a couterattack of several thousand? A beachead does NOT guarantee success. Lots of castles and fortified towns lost a gate only to regain it in the course of a battle. A small beachead that is outnumbered can be either destroyed or pushed off, allowing the Light two minutes to remove the Avendesora leaves or ward the Waygate.

 

 

Actually i said 1000, along with 20 dreadlords and 20 black ajah, but again, nice twisting of the issue. Which you seem to be doing alot of, something i thought you were better then. And yes, it does assure success. And again, warding would be instantly sliced and what the hell will removing the avendesora leaf do? Other then waste the time and lives of the defenders i mean.

 

 

Quote:

Wish the gate shut?

 

 

Takee Leaves outee.

 

Ineeefeeectual.

 

We can all overuse eee's. Doesn't change the fact that removing the leaves does nothing. Which is PROVEN.

 

Why do you think it's likely? Because it makes the Shadow more dangerous when you have been trying to play up their strength because you like the assault at Tar Valon? Neither of us has any solid numbers, either for the Black Ajah or the number of regular Darkfriends in Tar Valon. We just know they're not the majority, especially after Egwene is in charge.

 

Ive written threads on why i think it likely, and what i think the numbers of those things are. Theories, all, and therefore suspect. So kind of a moot question. My position is on record. Yours is not. And im geniunely curious.

 

First of all, the whole million can't even get at the city at once. Even Trollocs have to sleep, and six broken bridges don't offer good access to the walls. Thats the whole point of fortification. It limits the number of enemies you have to fight at once.

 

Now Robert, your first point defeats your second. Through the eight bridges eighty thousand trollocs can attack at any one time. That creates an alternating roster of 23 alternating shifts. Plenty of time to sleep. And there are 8 bridges. None of them are broken.

 

I'm sorry, was there point in that sentence, or were you just supporting my position?

 

Quote:

Even a well designed city with all that jazz would fall. No matter how you describe it.

 

 

Military history disagrees with you. Good fortifications regularly withstood the odds you're proposing.

 

And what odds are those... i mean i could state them again but you seem to ignore it when i say it, perhaps if you said them.

 

Oh, and by the way, military history supports me. No defending army has survived the situation in question. Oh, i know you dont acknowledge the Black Ajah, or Darkfriends, or draghkar... so whatever.

 

Destroy the bridges, and they can't walk through the gates. They'll still have to cross water to get to you. Taking out the bridges is standard procedure in a fortified position. Thats why castles had a moat and a drawbridge.

 

Hey, Robert. Can you respond to this for me. I get tired of repeating myself.

 

Clue. The response is based on power-enforcement and precendence on how long its taking Aes Sedai to remove such even without a million trollocs to worry about.

 

All of these things you're proposing, fortifications are specifically designed to prevent,

 

Thats actually wrong. Fortifications are designed to AID in the opposition of. They dont prevent anything. Seriously. Go out now and see how much a wall prevents you from scaling it by itself.

 

Its like saying a sword is designed to prevent you dying, it doesn't stop it just by being.

 

I'm suggesting that the Shadow is a different kind of threat.

 

I'm not saying the Shadow won't do it. I'm saying they'll do it and fail. But a military failure may not be as much of a failure as it would seem.

 

Actually, I think the Shadow is more dangerous than you do. You think that taking Tar Valon matters to them, and that they'll fail (albeit causing much more damage). I think that, whether they take it or not, they'll advance their true objective of helping Shai'tan that much closer to freedom.

 

Well, you are right, they will fail militarily. You just seem to be implying that they intentionally fail. They dont. Oh, i dont mind your point that even in failure the gain...

 

Seriously, you dont need to bend yourself over distorting the facts for your case to make sense, Robert.

[Beckon]

However freely the trollocs can travel the ways...once someone with half a brain realizes they're doing it then it won't need a ton of people to defend the gate. You can't get more than 1 or 2 trollocs abreast through the thing. You wouldn't have to divert a significant portion of the force away from the trollocs on the bridges. A handful of Asha'man could stand there and pop the heads of the trollocs as they come through without even breaking a sweat. If they took shifts they could keep that up for quite some time.

[Luckers]

I actually agree beckon. My issue is that if that initial containment is diverted containing it becomes an issue. Locking the ways wont stop them, wards wont stop them... the only way to stop them is force. And a black ajah insurgency can stop that, even if only for a time. Enough for a large enough trolloc force to escape the ways and further disrupt a forced containment.

 

My issue is that exactly that. As far as the defenders know no more then a hundred trollocs can make it through the ways. Even if they think more, and provide a force for more... and seriously, my scenario... does ANYONE see Egwene placing more people around the gate then i suggested? I was being absurd with strengthening the light and weakening the shadow, and even then there is a strong case for the defence being weakened enough to allow penetration through the gate.

[Wanderer]

Frankly I think that: a)Egwene won't even think about the waygate not to mention Elaida, if someone thinks of it as a menace will think it worth only a small force to keep guard.

b)If the Shadow will attack Tar Valon for real, an attack trough the ways has an high % to happen.

 

That's what I think knowing how RJ is playing the game, how characters act and how events have happened in the 11 books.

 

But I also say that the use of: black aja 5-20 or more of them, forsaken-trained dreadlords with special abilities gained from this training(the only one we've seen is Alviarin and Mesaana didn't teach her so much), maybe darkfriends, thousands of trollocs; states that is not so easy to use the ways to access the city. It seems to me quite a strain for the Shadow.

 

Any wise general would guard a potential opening at his rear in the best way he could even destroying it if necessary, but as I said I don't see any of our character so much wise and skilled.

 

Another thing, if wards are so easy to be removed, why don't the forsaken send someone to remove the ones in Tear, in Caemlyn, in the White Tower, each guarding angreal,ter'agreal, sa'angreal?

 

I agree that the Shadow general would be happy to be given the task to attack Tar Valon, but the ways aren't easy to use and the Tar Valon chiefs must be total obtuse and from what we know, they are.

[Mat is the Boss]

Machin Shin is attracted by living beings, which means that they couldn`t move more then 100 shadowspawn at the time to be sure Machin Shin doesn`t kill them all. It will take a long time to move large numbers of trollocs through the Ways. The Light shouldn`t have any problem stopping this. It would have been much more efficient for the Shadow if some Dreadlords made gateways to bring darkfriends into the city, rather then trying to bring in 100 trollocs at a time, to the same spot.

 

A couple hundred Aes Sedai shouldn`t have any problems destroying the bridges(whether it`s 6 or 8 of them), no matter how many darkfriends that`s trying to stop them. Shadowspawn are afraid to cross water, which makes it close to impossible for trollocs to cross a river 1 mile wide, and then scale a smooth wall, without being killed.

[cloglord]

A few short points without excessive quotations from earlier posts.

 

The ward point is well made by myself and others. If wards, inverted or not, are so easy to destroy, why weren't the ones protecting angreal/terangreal caches attacked? Why wasn't an attempt made on Callanor? If warded/trapped/locked waygates are so easy to overcome, why do so many of us, yourself included, believe that the trolloc attacks will come from the blight and from the unprotected waygates in the shadow coast? If it is so easy to negate ways wardings, why did RJ use as much of the narrative as he did to send Loial and an Ashaman, (I can't remember who now,) to lock them?

 

Secondly, You seem to say that the BA would wait for an attack through the ways and then sabotage the defense. The point I made about timing is still valid, I believe. If the BA waits till they hear news that the waygate is being used, then your hypothetical defenders would have ample time to disrupt or prevent the attack. If they don't wait to hear the news of the attack through the ways, but are instead lying in wait, then you have the proverbial 40 dreadlords hiding behind trees issue to adress. I suppose you could claim that they could have exact knowledge of when the attack through the ways would occur, but given the time differences within the ways, it would be incredibly difficult to predict that time with any degree of accuracy. The only way that I could see yout scenario working, the scenario where there are DF channellers onsite to immeadiately disrupt the defense, would be for the hypothetical trolloc horde to arrive at the waygate, send one of two DF's by stealth to Alviarin, to whisper in her ear, "Pssst, the gangs all here, you can come help us get out of the ways now."

 

Lastly, and probably most importantly, while I agree wholeheartedly that Tar Valon would inevitably fall to a trolloc invasion of the scale we are discussing, (since it almost did once in the trolloc wars,) I have yet to see a single bit of evidence that a trolloc attack of this magnitude is even possible, let alone likely. Until we have some idea how this army of a million trollocs is going to get to Tar Valon, this just seems like a good oppurtunity for Luckers and Robert to get pissed at each other.

[Guest Barmacral]

Machin Shin is attracted by living beings' date=' which means that they couldn`t move more then 100 shadowspawn at the time to be sure Machin Shin doesn`t kill them all. It will take a long time to move large numbers of trollocs through the Ways. The Light shouldn`t have any problem stopping this. It would have been much more efficient for the Shadow if some Dreadlords made gateways to bring darkfriends into the city, rather then trying to bring in 100 trollocs at a time, to the same spot.

 

A couple hundred Aes Sedai shouldn`t have any problems destroying the bridges(whether it`s 6 or 8 of them), no matter how many darkfriends that`s trying to stop them. Shadowspawn are afraid to cross water, which makes it close to impossible for trollocs to cross a river 1 mile wide, and then scale a smooth wall, without being killed.[/quote']

 

Except that a 100,000 made it through in KoD without attracting Machin Shin. This has already been addressed in previous pages.

[DemandredFO]

This maybe a dumb question or maybe I'm just forgetting something. Do we even know if Aes Sedai can trap waygates? I mean we have evidence that Rand and at least some Asha'man he taught know how to do it. To my knowledge we have never seen Egwene or any other Aes Sedai do it. Egwene remarks that Moghedien couldn't teach advanced weaves like spinning earthfire(I'm assuming thatis blossoms of fire). could someone help me? Thanks

[cloglord]

Moraine on at least one occasion claims to be able to weave a ward to be able to kill shadowspawn, but that the amount of the power needed to do it, would be like a beacon to fades.

[Beckon]

Shadar Logoth, the Blight, and the camp in the mountains of mist are three occassions I can think of offhand where she talks about shadowspawn killing wards.

[DemandredFO]

Thank you, I forgot about that. I just finished the Eye of the World *hand hits head*

[Fel]

I'm not going to go near the whole plan for the waygates, but the bridges should be able to hold up just about indefinitely against 1 million trollocs.

 

As was pointed out to a lesser degree a couple of times on this long thread, the bridges are ideal kill zones. If you take channelers completely out of the equation for a second, you've got to look at just how many people can attack Tar Valon at a time. Assume the bridges are huge (the width of the Brooklyn Bridge, say). That would (a guess) be about 40 trollocs across standing shoulder to shoulder on each bridge. That is *all* that can attack one bridge gate at one time. You can have 10 Million Trollocs or 100 Million, you are still limited to 40 trollocs at a time per gate actually beating their hands on the gates.

 

Now, you've got 100,000 (egwenes and tower guards) defenders in the city divided across the 6 gates (I forget if it is 6 or 8 gates, but the math is the same). That gives you 16000 people per gate. Divide them into 3 shifts of 8 hours each and you are looking at over 5000 archers covering the gates. Assuming a good percentage of these have at least rudimentary archery skills on the wall tops and you have a line 40 abreast walking into thousands of arrows. And, once the first few lines get pincushioned, the ones behind have to clamber over their dead, making things even harder. It would be a slaughter that could *easily* go on indefinitely.

 

Add in the Aes Sedai in circles primarily to ward off whatever special surprises the dreadlords throw at them, but, in their spare time adding to the carnage, and the slaughter yard gets even worse.

 

The fact is the bridges are such huge choke points that a conventional army just can't succeed, no matter how large.

 

Now, the shadow could have some seige weapons that we don't know about, but we have seen little evidence of that so far. And Hawkwing could not break through the gates despite having (I assume) seige engines and unlimited personnel, so you have to assume seige engines would not do too much.

 

The dreadlords and black ajah are the wild card, but there is a quick way to detect them and, once the army is on it's way, Perava simply brings up the easy Black Ajah test "I am not a darkfriend on the oath rod" and you can be sure of all the people leading your circles. That should rid you of your black ajah infestation and then your channelers simply have the job of countering the enemy channelers.

 

I'm not going to get into the Waygate argument, but the rest of the island should be impregnable to an assault by land-based forces.

[Sila Darklover]

*head spinning* I won't try to understand all your explanations of military science. My one question: if Dragkhar are useless in combat (which makes sense), then why were they at that battle in the Blight near the end of TEotW?

[cloglord]

Fel, you ar not taking into account 2 things. 1st, in the time of the trollocs wars trollocs and dreadlords ransacked a part of the tower. If RJ thinks that it could happen then I suspect it remains just as much a possibility.

 

Secondly, Captain Chubain has been recruiting for the tower guard under Alviarin's direction since ACoS. It only takes the BA and DF tower guards turning at one bridge to allow a river of trollocs, 40 abreast, into the city.

[Luckers]

Robert, i wish to say sorry first of all to the edge in my voice in the last post. I allowed myself to get frustrated and i am sorry. If you are still interested i am enjoying this conversation, so hopefully we can continue with me speaking in a somewhat more civilized manner.

 

 

 

The ward point is well made by myself and others. If wards, inverted or not, are so easy to destroy, why weren't the ones protecting angreal/terangreal caches attacked?

 

They were held by people. They could be spun through, but the guards would have felt it. And Callandor's warding was designed to destroy a channeler if they channeled at it. It was dangerous to the channeler, it doesn't mean it cant be unspun.

 

A ward on the waygate, however, would not be designed like that (it actually cant be. Moiraine states that wards cannot do two things at once. The cache wards are an alarm. I have no doubt they could be destroyed, but doing so would set off the alarm. The ward on Callandor is a trap. Again i have no doubt they can be destroyed, but doing so would set off the trap.)

 

Wards are not infallible. They are woven and tired off like any other weave, and set to a purpose. I doubt that whoever who deals with this one will even have to unspin it. They will be able to just slice it, as there is no risk.

 

If it is so easy to negate ways wardings, why did RJ use as much of the narrative as he did to send Loial and an Ashaman, (I can't remember who now,) to lock them?

 

A good question. But the fact is we know two things. One, such warding can be unspun. We have seen this done. Two, Rand also had guards placed at those waygates he could reach, and the Ogier were agreeing to guard their own as well.

 

Also, what else could he have done?

 

Secondly, You seem to say that the BA would wait for an attack through the ways and then sabotage the defense. The point I made about timing is still valid, I believe. If the BA waits till they hear news that the waygate is being used, then your hypothetical defenders would have ample time to disrupt or prevent the attack. If they don't wait to hear the news of the attack through the ways, but are instead lying in wait, then you have the proverbial 40 dreadlords hiding behind trees issue to adress. I suppose you could claim that they could have exact knowledge of when the attack through the ways would occur, but given the time differences within the ways, it would be incredibly difficult to predict that time with any degree of accuracy.

 

I'm not really sure i understand the contention? They would be waiting within sight of the gate... they simple attack when they see the gate being opened. Why would they need exact knowledge of the time?

 

Let me be clear though, i dont actually think any of that will be nessasary. I dont think that the Light will even think of the Ways. As far as anyone in Tar Valon knows, no more then a hundred trollocs could make it through. What i think will occur is that Alviarin and her coterie will go to make sure there arn't any wardings, and take command when the trollocs come out, or just join them. I think this will be blunted by Pevara and the others who will follow Alviarin, witness the trollocs begin to enter, raise the warning and lead soldiers to contain the incursion.

 

The above was me attempting to point out that even if the Light does everything intelligent, bottlenecking at the Waygate still is not as easy as Robert was making out.

 

Lastly, and probably most importantly, while I agree wholeheartedly that Tar Valon would inevitably fall to a trolloc invasion of the scale we are discussing, (since it almost did once in the trolloc wars,) I have yet to see a single bit of evidence that a trolloc attack of this magnitude is even possible, let alone likely. Until we have some idea how this army of a million trollocs is going to get to Tar Valon, this just seems like a good oppurtunity for Luckers and Robert to get pissed at each other.

 

Um... they run there. How else would they get there? Trollocs can cover a hundred miles in a day. Thats a 7 day run for them from Tarwin Gap. Whats the issue?

 

This maybe a dumb question or maybe I'm just forgetting something. Do we even know if Aes Sedai can trap waygates? I mean we have evidence that Rand and at least some Asha'man he taught know how to do it. To my knowledge we have never seen Egwene or any other Aes Sedai do it. Egwene remarks that Moghedien couldn't teach advanced weaves like spinning earthfire(I'm assuming thatis blossoms of fire). could someone help me? Thanks

 

We dont know for sure.

 

Moraine on at least one occasion claims to be able to weave a ward to be able to kill shadowspawn, but that the amount of the power needed to do it, would be like a beacon to fades.

 

I may be wrong, but doesn't she say something along the lines of 'even if i were to be able to do that'?

[cloglord]

Luckers, would you please tell me where you got the idea that trollocs can run 100 miles in a day? I don't remember reading that anywhere.

[RobertAlexWillis]

This Ephialtes... he could channel?

 

Not comprable.

 

It is comparable, since the majority of the battle would be fought by non-channelers. If the Shadow had the ONLY channelers, then the metaphor would be invalid, but they don't.

 

Yes, it has.

 

I must concede this point. I had forgotten about Moiraine burning through the gate at Fal Dara in TEoTW. So, obviously, the Dreadlords (or even one Dreadlord) can open the Waygate from the inside.

 

That makes your case much stronger, in the sense that removing the Avendesora leaves is not now a secure method of locking the Waygate. It does not change the military value of a bottleneck, the difficulty of moving large numbers of troops in and out of a Waygate, or the defenders ability to make such an exit point very costly for the enemy and easily defensible for themselves.

 

Ive written threads on why i think it likely, and what i think the numbers of those things are. Theories, all, and therefore suspect. So kind of a moot question. My position is on record. Yours is not. And im geniunely curious.

 

I don't think that the Darkfriend rate among Aes Sedai is 2000 to 4000 percent the normal rate (its supposed to be .5 to 1 percent among the general population, if 20 percent of Aes Sedai are black ... that alot). Its just opinion, but I think Alviarin would be much, much more effective if she had that kind of control over the Tower.

 

Now Robert, your first point defeats your second. Through the eight bridges eighty thousand trollocs can attack at any one time. That creates an alternating roster of 23 alternating shifts. Plenty of time to sleep. And there are 8 bridges. None of them are broken.

 

I'm sorry, was there point in that sentence, or were you just supporting my position?

 

The first point doesn't defeat the second. The 100,000 defenders can sleep in shifts too. My point was that the number one million isn't as impressive as it sounds, because one million Trollocs can't attack the city at once.

 

As to the bridges not being broken of COURSE they're not broken YET. Word of a million marching Trollocs hasn't reached Tar Valon. But once the people in the city know they're coming (and word will reach the city ahead of the army), then they can destroy the bridges. Like I said, its standard procedure in a siege.

 

Oh, and by the way, military history supports me. No defending army has survived the situation in question.

 

Forgive a little condescension here, but I have a hard time believing you know what military history does and doesn't support, when you've already admitted not knowing the details of the most famous battle in western history.

 

Besides, by your logic, any analogy from earth military history doesn't support either of us, because real life doesn't have channelers.

 

Now to military history.

 

You know, Alexander's battle of Tyre is remarkably like the one for Tar Valon. At the time, Tyre was a fortified city on an island about 1 km from land. And Alexander, with more resources and a much, much larger army, did take the city.

 

After seven months.

 

The Shadow could take Tar Valon. But they can't swarm it under in one sustained frontal assault. It would take months at a minimum, and probably years. YOU ARE UNDERESTIMATING THE VALUE OF TAR VALON'S FORTIFICATIONS.

 

An extreme example of the value of fortification is found at Odiham Castle, in Hampshire County, England. According to Thomas Cox's Magna Britannia, Antiqua et Nova (pub 1783), 13 men held the Castle in 1216 against 7000 men. 13 vs. 7000. And the 13 won.

 

Tar Valon is better fortified than ANY CITY THAT HAS EVER EXISTED ON EARTH. It is not impregnable, and there are traitors within it. They will make a battle more costly, but they are not sufficient. The enemy has channelers. So do the defenders, and the defenders have more.

 

You just seem to be implying that they intentionally fail.

 

I'm implying that the people at the very top don't care if the attack fails militarily, because it will still accomplish their goals.

 

Robert, i wish to say sorry first of all to the edge in my voice in the last post. I allowed myself to get frustrated and i am sorry. If you are still interested i am enjoying this conversation, so hopefully we can continue with me speaking in a somewhat more civilized manner.

 

Luckers, my friend. You've called me a murderer in your time. Besides, I wasn't the model of respectful tone myself. "Takee Leaves outee" in support of what turned out to be my weakest point isn't exactly respectful.

 

LOL ... it wouldn't have been respectful in support of my strongest point.

 

I think I'll be OK. :D

 

For Sila (and kind for you too Luckers):

 

My one question: if Dragkhar are useless in combat (which makes sense), then why were they at that battle in the Blight near the end of TEotW?

 

They are essentially spy-planes. Good for gathering intelligence, and the like. My assessment of their value in the battle is based on this:

 

"The most fearsome of these is the Draghkar, dangerous not because of any skill in battle - the creature does not fight well, having very thin frail hands and arms unsuited for weapons - but because it has the ability to summon its prey into its lethal embrace."

 

"During the War of the Shadow, as today, Draghkar were used primarily as outdoor assassins ... They are less effective ... dealing with groups of people or sunlight."

 

(BWB, pages 79-80)

 

 

Now, for my conclusion:

 

The problem with this argument is that it won't ever really be solved. We'll eventually find out who killed Asmodean, whether the bodyswap happens, etc, etc. But unless Jordan gives us a Forsaken coffee hour where they discuss these plans and their motivations in detail (not likely) then we'll never really know, because we're both predicting the same actual outcome: Light wins. Obviously, you don't think that the fortifications of Tar Valon will be as effective as I think they will be. I guess the only way to know would be to guage the damage done in an assault, but thats sort of imprecise.

 

There are so many variables here that we can't really predict. How much time between the Seanchan attack and the Shadow's attack? How far in advance do the defenders know? Who is in command of the city? Are the rebels in the city? What about their army? Which Aes Sedai know how to make which type of wardings? Do the Seanchan give any help? Does word get to Rand? When does it get there? When do the hunters expose Alviarin? DO the hunters get to Alviarin? What exactly is the change in Machin Shin? All of these things could greatly affect the outcome, and we don't really KNOW any of them.

 

If I were in charge of the Shadow's army, I would be worried. In my opinion, even if they truly feel they can win, its still not the "perfect situation" that would cause the commander to cream his pants that you describe.

 

 

As I have stated before, I do hope that Jordan surprises us with things neither of us has anticipated.

[Sila Darklover]

Thanks, Robert. I knew Dragkhar had to have some use beyond being pretty.

[Guest Barmacral]

I'm implying that the people at the very top don't care if the attack fails militarily, because it will still accomplish their goals.

 

I disagree, taking down the Tower is a huge blow to the light, and I think the Shadow does very much care whether they take it. Sure the assault in itself will accomplish some goals, but I don't think the Shadow Generals will be very pleased when it fails.

[DemandredFO]

Three things, First, Robert unless someone, Egwene, probably with a circle with Sharina in it, with the most powerful sa'angreal the tower possesses, hits the bridges I don't see any other way for them to come down. Second, like Cloglord, I want to know Luckers where that 100 miles came from, I do remember points where they were galloping from trollocs and it said the Trollocs were slowly gaining on them. I saw an estimate in another thread that a horse can go 30 miles in a day, I am justing going by this estimate cuz I have no knowledge in that area so please don't flame me if that's wrong. If trollocs run a little over three times as fast as a horse wouldn't the trollocs gain faster?

If the Black Ajah is spying on the waygate guards and dreadlords are the first out when they blow the waygate, the good guys will be caught between two opposing forces and will most probably have to retreat. When they retreat and call for reinforcements they can most likely contain it but I don't think they will be able to get near the waygate with dreadlords, BA and trollocs guarding. My guess is the most the light can do is surround the grove.

Now, to my mind the scenario has two wildcards, if Pevara's force, this will be the containment, has bond any asha'man darkfriends and if so, how many? Other wildcard is if anyone shadow or light has angreal or if the light has sa'angreal.

This is how I see the situation

[Beckon]

I'm not the expert here, but as you said in those scenes they're galloping. In the 30 mile a day example they're not galloping the horses the whole way they're alternately walking/trotting them.

[Mat is the Boss]

I don`t think trollocs would survive a seven days long "gallop" anyway. I would be very surprised if the trolloc army moved from Tarwins Gap to Tar Valon in a week, while Lan would need two or three months to reach Tarwins gap from the Worlds End.

 

If the trollocs are going to do any fighting in Tar Valon early in aMoL, they probably were destroying Shienar during KoD. Unless some Aes Sedai or Ashaman happens to Travel to Shienar, noone will know of the invasion before they are close to Tar Valon.

 

The last time someone visited the Borderlands in the books was when Nyaneve spread word of Lan`s trip to Tarwins Gap, and we can`t know that she visited Shienar at the time. But if we assume that she did, and the trollocs invaded Shienar the next day, they could be well on their way as aMoL begins. Who knows, perhaps the Seanchan arrive to find Tar Valon surrounded by shadowspawn, and decide to aid the marath`damane in their fight against the Shadow :)

 

Perhaps that`s what Egwenes dreams meant, that the Seanchan will save the Tower from the Shadow. That would surely shake the foundations of the Tower(and Egwene).

 

Not that I think this is likely to happen, but I expect that RJ will surprise us, so why not?

[Beckon]

I don't think the trollocs could survive that pace indefinitely either. It's just the explanation for why the trollocs didn't gain ground faster during the chase in tEotW.

[RobertAlexWillis]

First, Robert unless someone, Egwene, probably with a circle with Sharina in it, with the most powerful sa'angreal the tower possesses, hits the bridges I don't see any other way for them to come down.

 

We don't know that the bridges are reinforced with the Power the same way that the walls are. Unless someone can show me where I missed that. One of the most basic tenets of fortification is "make sure you can cut off your access points". If they designed the bridges so that they can't take them down, then 3000 years worth of Aes Sedai have all been radishes.

 

And if it turns out they have been radishes, then as soon as Gareth Bryne hears that the Trollocs are coming, he's going to tell Egwene to do whatever she has to the block or destroy those six bridges. If that means a circle of 13 and the fluted rod sa'angreal, then thats what it means. With a cooperative Asha'man or two, they could extend the circle quite a bit.

 

If the Black Ajah is spying on the waygate guards and dreadlords are the first out when they blow the waygate, the good guys will be caught between two opposing forces and will most probably have to retreat.

 

Yeah. Two opposing forces that they VASTLY outnumber within the confines of the city. I think they can find a better option than "run away".

 

I disagree, taking down the Tower is a huge blow to the light,

 

Yes. Taking the Tower would be a huge blow to the Light. I have never denied that. But failing to take the Tower, while still causing great carnage, is not necessarily defeat for the Shadow.

 

I've never said they deliberately WANT to fail to take the city. Sure, Moridin would love it if they took Tar Valon. I just don't think Moridin will lapse into depression if they fail to, just as long as lots of people die, and the Aes Sedai are too busy to help Rand.

 

I picture the conversations like this:

 

Option 1 (they take the city).

 

Demandred: "We took the city"

 

Moridin: "Good! Did alot of people die?"

 

Demandred: "No, we asked nicely and they let us in. Of COURSE alot of people died."

 

Moridin: "Very funny. Good job. Now kill more."

 

Option 2 (they don't take the city).

 

Demandred: "We didn't take the city. I told you a siege was better."

 

Moridin: "Did alot of people die?"

 

Demandred: "Well, yeah. Could have been more, but ..."

 

Moridin: "Great. Now go ravage the countryside."

 

 

******

 

In the "presenting evidence even if it doesn't really help my case" category, there are early indications that the Shadow plans to take Tar Valon. The Dark Prophecy in Fal Dara includes the line "The Shining Walls shall kneel." Not be destroyed, but kneel. Its something else to ponder.

 

 

*******

 

 

As to the "hundred mile a day thing" ... I thought I remembered it too, but I can't find it now. The BWB says they are "almost as fast as a horse." (p. 73) They can probably average more miles in a day than a horse for the same reason the Aiel can (endurance), but 100 miles per day, especially as a sustained rate of travel, does seem a bit on the unlikely side. So, I would like to see that reference too. (I'm totally willing to back down to a good reference here ... it sounded familiar when you said it Luckers.)

[DemandredFO]

Robert, why would the Aes Sedai reinforce the walls but not the bridges, I'm not saying they did I'm just asking. Second, couldn't it be said that the shining walls already do kneel to Mesaana? Third, I feel special that I am in the middle of the Luckers vs. RAW debate :lol: