Safari mafia [basic] - game thread

[Shad_]

sick x-posts cory lol

[Cory Caboose]

hi shad

[Shad_]

I think we got 2 boo.

[Cory Caboose]

my real goal is to find another villager

 

right now im wondering if it's my boy IRONEYES

[Cory Caboose]

  On 2/6/2018 at 8:47 PM, Cory Caboose said:

 

for the sake of transparency, my [stupid secret villager read] from earlier was her because i don't think she'd cheekily claim her rolename in her first post as a wolf, lol

 

admittedly a stupid read, but i'd also guess it's correct (lolme)

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  On 2/6/2018 at 8:54 PM, Andrej said:

 

I thought you were gonna say it was Arie for other raisins. That’s who I had in my head, anyway.

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I think AJ expecting me to have an early townread on Arie for our early interactions is probably a line he goes with if Arie is a villager more often than if Arie is a wolf

 

As in it was formulated out of concern rather than hope that I would misread his wolfbro

[Cory Caboose]

Darthe is becoming a major concern at this point

[Cory Caboose]

  On 2/7/2018 at 6:41 AM, Ironeyes said:

Hey, I just figured out how to delete a quote in the new DM. Handy. But the new text colors are playing literal havoc on my colorblindness. I could tell the old ones apart no problem; these ones I have to get like two inches from the screen to discern. Yeesh. 

Now list time. Reasons are in the quotes above except where otherwise noted. 

Ironeyes

Niniel

Arie

Kaylee (Interaction with Shad seems town)

Shad (Ditto, also is more engaged with the game than I expect from scum!Shad)

Cory (GTH town so far, but it's just a gut read)

Darthe/BG/Lenlo

AJ

Amega

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inb4 Marsh solved the game back on page 13

[Shad_]

  On 2/7/2018 at 6:39 PM, Shad_ said:

 

Ok but if you believe we have similar playstyles/think similarly, what makes the fact that we keep dropping similar reads unlikely to be a consequence of exactly us having similar playstyles/thinking similarly?  Unless it feels like a specific one of us is consistently sheeping the other, shouldn't it just suggest to you that we are the same alignment?

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  On 2/7/2018 at 6:58 PM, amegakure said:

I do later in the game. Especially after spear heading a scum lynch. I've seen verb, darthe, and a few other oldies who have done it but they usually attacked each other allot before that happened. I feel like you guys did your snap reads and Kaylee kinda just joined in based on positive attitudes. Odds are someones scum. Aiere could fit in there too. 

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  On 2/7/2018 at 6:50 PM, Shad_ said:

I think the best thing [amegakure] has going right now was his post about how we could use his reads as a confirmed villager's stance if he gets lynched.

 

Basically a thread of consistency in his bold confidence.

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  On 2/7/2018 at 7:02 PM, amegakure said:

So what do you think am i a villager to you? This kinda sounds like your okay with lynching me either way. 

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  On 2/7/2018 at 7:17 PM, BFG said:

Vote count:

Ironeyes (1) - Shad
amegakure (2) - cory, Kaylee
Lenlo (2) - AJ, Niniel
bgrishinko (1) Lenlo

 

Not voting (5): Amegakure, Darthe, Ironeyes, bgrishinko, Arie

 

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  On 2/7/2018 at 7:19 PM, amegakure said:

Vote Lenlo He hasn't contributed much. I know that's his thing but in this kinda game i think we need more. Plus when I'm scum i go full lenlo. 

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Come on this is never a villager.

[Cory Caboose]

  On 2/7/2018 at 6:23 PM, Andrej said:

 

Darthe was my attempt to add something beyond the circle of Kaylee/Shad/Cory town reads. It was off the cuff but semi-serious. After his latest postings I still feel pretty good about that. In BFG’s game he was super hyperactive almost to an exaggerated point which made me think he was scum. I don’t get that vibe at all this game.

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man i have no idea what to make of this

 

this is such a simplification of darthe's wolf/town games from AJ, and well, it's clearly not a real read

[Shad_]

He's very stubbornly sticking to the line that one of Cory or I is a wolf.  I gave him an explanation for why two villagers might interact this way, and he insisted we wouldn't this early.  Has to be a wolf among us.  I then make a post that doesn't involve Cory that he finds highly suspect: I say something good about him.  He says it sounds like I think he's a villager but I still want to lynch him.

 

Ok.  A villager is allowed to think all of that.  A villager can come in and see a situation and feel like there has to be a wolf in it, and then see one of those players do something outside of the situation that feels wolfy independently.

 

We then get a vote count that shows two of his top suspects voting him and two other people voting Lenlo.

 

And all of a sudden he wants to lynch Lenlo for reasons.

 

It's not like he said "ok well I know I'm not a wolf and given how the game's going these wagons probably aren't shaking" or whatever. 

 

He just completely abandons all of his reads in the game up to this point in favor of a one-liner justification to hop on his counterwagon.

 

Come on.

[Shad_]

If anything that vote count coupled with the mentality he's presented up to that point should further strengthen his conviction that wolves are in me/Cory/Kaylee.

 

Instead he suddenly wants to lynch Lenlo.

[Cory Caboose]

AJ also mostly ignores him earlygame and then does some almost in-thread coaching / damage control after he becomes a wagon around pgs 17-18, when it looked like Lenlo was viably going to be mislynched

 

Which is pretty much exactly how I'd expect AJ to treat a wolfbro getting ~mild pressure

[Shad_]

  On 2/8/2018 at 4:15 AM, Cory Caboose said:

 

man i have no idea what to make of this

 

this is such a simplification of darthe's wolf/town games from AJ, and well, it's clearly not a real read

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I'm going to assume AJ never actually thought he'd get lynched today.  He's got that high value if town equity that almost always guarantees a D1 pass.  He only needs to deal with one of us D2.  Does he chuck a villager into the town discussion here for WIFOM or is it a real effort to protect a team mate for later in the game when they can have more thread control?

 

I guess my thought here is that the latter is entirely possible.  Which doesn't make Darthe a wolf, just derails my instinct to say a wolf is more likely to drop a goofy read like this on a villager.  Basically I give Darthe 0 town credit for it.

[Shad_]

  On 2/8/2018 at 4:28 AM, Shad_ said:

 

I'm going to assume AJ never actually thought he'd get lynched today.

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Maybe once you started rallying the troops he did, but the Darthe thing came earlier than that.

[Cory Caboose]

If amegakure is a wolf, it looks really good for Iron, Niniel & Kaylee as well

[Cory Caboose]

  On 2/8/2018 at 4:32 AM, Shad_ said:

 

Maybe once you started rallying the troops he did, but the Darthe thing came earlier than that.

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Yeah, that's about page 20

 

Where I just got to on my reread (heh)

[Shad_]

  On 2/8/2018 at 4:32 AM, Cory Caboose said:

If amegakure is a wolf, it looks really good for Iron, Niniel & Kaylee as well

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Yep

[bgrishinko]

  On 2/8/2018 at 1:34 AM, Shad_ said:

 

Is that where your head's at now or is that just an if then statement?

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Mainly an if/then statement. I always look for the most complicated versions first because that's how I play as mafia, but I'm always willing to listen to the simple arguments too when they make sense. So my thinking is I want apply pressure to Nini, Arie, and as backup to my complicated line of reasoning amegacure.

 

  On 2/8/2018 at 1:49 AM, Cory Caboose said:

bg I think most of our disconnect comes from just different approaches and playstyles and i want to bridge that gap if you're a villager

 

i'm happy with you doing your own thing, but also sort of [keeping in mind] the idea that there are worlds where AJ's wagon was village-heavy or even all villagers i think would be really useful in terms of scoping out the different potential mafia wolfteams remaining

 

i feel specifically responsible about shade being cast on Niniel for her AJ vote; I think the reason Niniel voted AJ was 100% because I asked her to follow my read and has more to do with the [long list of games we've played together] and her general trust in me to not ask for a vote unless i felt very strongly i was right ... it's just a part of our dynamic. i imagine she'd say something similar about it

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Yeah, definitely different approaches. I'm fine with that, but if we all think like you then people can use that to their advantage. i.e. If Niniel knows your dynamic pretty well, she can exploit it. I think there's benefit looking at it from a different point of view. I'll let you know if there's anything I take great difference with you.

@Shad_ I didn't include you because the interactions with you didn't seem as off once it appeared that AJ decided to start throwing in the towel. Go back and re-read all his posts after he talks about him and Cory in the dead thread, they have the distinct flair of knowingly spreading WIFOM. But it was a little too early for that given the amount of votes. Your interaction at that point didn't seem to include that.

[Cory Caboose]

I know have Niniel's full progression on AJ in mind and

A) Niniel has problems with AJ on her own, and agrees to vote him with me (second vote on AJ) right as AJ returns to the thread and attempts talk me out of his read. Even if at some point, AJ did indeed accept his lynch, he certainly hadn't accepted it at that point, as he then would be in the thread for a solid hour trying to alleviate the pressure on him and seem "relaxed" (etc.) - I find it fundamentally unbelievable that AJ would've encouraged a bus / given up before this, because at the time Lenlo was still the lead wagon and AJ is the kind of person who can easily talk himself out of a lynch / buy another day in a lot of circumstances.

 

B) Niniel is fluid with all of her reads, and her internal rationale for voting AJ is very much in line with how she approaches the game as a villager. She is unsettled that AJ is complacent, is posting without really having much impact with his posts, and has maintained a vote on Lenlo (a "kickstarter" vote, by AJ's own admission) without really considering moving forward with it.

 

She's my second strongest villager after Shad.

[Cory Caboose]

I don't think Niniel even knows why I read her the way I do.

I'm not even sure I know.

 

It's one of the great mafia mysteries of DM.

[Cory Caboose]

Honestly I took AJ's whole snap reaction to Niniel/Arie's votes as basically  "I need to create doubt on my wagon, and highlighting that the votes seem 'bandwagony' will probably cause people to be paranoid of it" more than anything.

[Cory Caboose]

  On 2/7/2018 at 1:29 PM, Kaylee said:

Not gonna sugar coat things, I don't have strong reads yet but will list players in groups from town to scum. Middle will be null. 

 

Town

Arie - she's straightforward and feels like she's trying to figure things out. Doesn't go with the flow. Good look

Cory - same as before. Feel like he's gathering his town core. The way he's going about it seems TownCory to me. 

Niniel - I like what I've seen so far. The initial post felt good and the questions since haven't changed that. 

Leno - his catch up felt genuine. Not sure hoe to word it, but basically the way he admitted to leaving stuff out and not knowing the vanilla set up gave me a good vibe. 

Shad - Feels like town. He still has me questioning his sincerity. But his goofy behavior and relaxed feel has a townie vibe. 

 

Null - I just feel I dont have enough from them. They are in no particular order. Amega and Darthe are the hardest for me to read. 

AJ, Darthe, Iron, BG, Amega 

 

 I'd be willing and likely to vote Iron so far. Amega I feel gets mislynched when town due to playstyle so wanna give him some room. BG and AJ I feel will be more obvious after some time. Darthe is always a hard one for me to read. Could technically vote here too as of this moment. 

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  On 2/7/2018 at 4:03 PM, Kaylee said:

 

For me yes because I won't vote Cory or Leno today. I'll be voting in 30 mins. 

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  On 2/7/2018 at 9:18 PM, Kaylee said:

 

Have to stop here and get back to work. 

 

Unvote Vote Leno

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bleh, i know she explained it to some extent but considering the timing and her previous stances re: Lenlo this does bother the hell out of me :/

[Cory Caboose]

  On 2/7/2018 at 8:55 PM, Andrej said:

 

In between getting ready for work I can peek back and also try to answer any sort of questions now. Tbh letting this ride might not be the worst thing ever. Clears the air since I have been put to the forefront so often and highlights how my wagon went from 0 to 3 in about 30 minutes.

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^^^

 

the kind of stuff I'm talking about re: AJ

[Cory Caboose]

alright, i've reread everything through the lynch

 

will probably reassess things a bit tomorow, but where I stand currently:

Shad

 

Niniel

 

Iron

Kaylee

Lenlo

Arie

 

--- the line ---

 

bg

Darthe

 

Amega

 

goal is to get to sort the light greens / greys as much as possible before SOD2

[Cory Caboose]

goodnight thread o7