[Basic C9++] Murder Mystery Mafia D5

[monstrman]

I'm rereading the thread for fun

 

i probably won't have any new conclusions when i am done

[monstrman]

cory are you just volume reading me?

[monstrman]

if we go by volume reads there's a wolf in me and clov

 

but volume reads are stupid

[monstrman]

unless they're applied to mor_tilt (apologies for everyone who does not know him)

[monstrman]

i think i kinda see what you're saying about sooh, shad

 

she seems relaxed here, i guess i would put it

[monstrman]

I'm hoping that we'll get more Tress, Darthe, Hallia, Niniel and Kronos before EOD, otherwise that's pretty much my pool.

sooh how do you feel about tress/darthe now?

[monstrman]

well that was uneventful

 

alas my villagers remain my villagers and everyone else remains everyone else

 

 

 

 

 

for now

[monstrman]

Up to page 34. I will not be able to catch up today. Hopefully tomorrow.

 

Shad asked me what I thought about him jumping around. Well, I find half of it townie and half of it scummy. Good things = starting the game, being very active, maybe going after Darthe? (although is he?) Bad things = that post where he said that he liked Clov´s vote on Sooh. I don´t get why he liked it and he couldn´t explain it either. The vote on Killa was bad. I don´t like his logic about Ed being town and at the same time say that Killa isn´t a bad lynch. 

 

Cory - I don´t understand your vote on DPR early but other than that you feel townie to me. :)

 

 

Ed - I´m so happy that you still have your little zombie! <3 I still have mine. But I don´t like your game here. Your vote on Killa was really bad. 

 

Darthe - still don´t get his early reads and he has not explained them or posted much.

 

Tress - I have almost no notes on her. 

 

Sooh - still feeliing good about her.

 

DPR - the only one that seems to suspect Seph but I don´t know if it´s for the same reasons as me. 

 

Kronos - no notes except for his early vote

 

Clov - I find it irritating with votes that doesn´t get explained. I like his vote on Ed, which he did explain.

 

Killa - newbie who is trying. The "we" thing was weak. I´m not saying she is town but not mafia because of that.

 

Manbat - I agree with him that Ed and Killa aren´t mafia together. I have a hard time reading his posts sometimes. 

 

 

 

[v] Ed [/v]

this is kind of an underwhelming take on my slot

[monstrman]

if this was a coding class that part of the post where it says "that post where he said he liked clov's vote on sooh" would be assigned to the variable bad things

 

but you would get a compiler error because you forgot a lot of semicolons

 

also what about the post didn't you like?

[DPR]

 

 

He has. I don't have him quite as high as a couple of you seems to earlier but he still towney in my opinion. I recognize that monster isn't one to actually do things that are Wolfie most of the time, rather his wolf play is just an absence of Towny actions across time but I think the that makes him a better mid-game read

 

he's been sort of disengaged from the conversation for longer than i'm used to monstr being, but i'm keeping in mind i might be being paranoid and that he might show up in an hour and make me look silly for doubting my read (kek)

 

 

The Killa/Ed not w/w thing got played out longer than felt quite natural.

 

Maybe not quite as much rallying the village moments as I'm used to but this game feels like a strong village with little need for cattle prods aorn.

 

All of my interactions with him when we're both on have felt good across the board and I'm willing to ride with that into the sunset unless hung villagers force me to recompute.

 

 

 

 

I think you touched on the feeling I had earlier with your post and did not know how to express. There was for sure some bros before town(game) mentality between those guys that I was having trouble with.

I think you'll find that when you've played with certain people a lot you begin to establish a sort of working relationship with them; you learn how to win effectively together and part of the testing of the waters irt their alignments is to see if that collaborative zone naturally materializes when you open up to them.  It's a mistake to think most of us aren't glancing sideways at each other a hundred times in our heads for every in-thread high five, but focusing on these doubts every time they arise can be counterproductive.

 

It's a game of probabilities.  Like Sooh could be having the best scum game of her career that I've witnessed, but I have to keep telling myself she's just an obvious villager because if I don't I'll be focusing less attention on the people whose chances of randing wolf are actually greater than like 5% at this point.

 

 

 

Really the hardest part of Mafia for me is outwardly trusting people when I know i could be wrong.

 

But if I don't do it I just lose more often.

 

 

See, that's the thing - you're not "trusting people", you're just sticking with the club.

 

If you're willing to ride with them into the sunset unless "hung villagers force you to recompute" then the bros win either way, no?

 

This is exactly what I called bulls**t on earlier with Clov - he admits Seph looks bad, but then gives him a pass. Or when Cory votes me without posting any reasoning, I post a comment back and he pursues it like I'm avoiding him... which he got called on, and he avoided answering that. 

 

The only probability here is when the inner group wipes out the rest of the game first, then their chances of winning increase with every game. 

[DPR]

 

OK, so.  Summary of thoughts as of right now.

 

2. Darthe - At least 75% of the time I want to lynch Darthe regardless.  It might not be a bad move. :unsure: OK, I kind of like some of his posts.  Let's call it "not today".

 

3. Shadory (cory caboose & Shad_) - I feel pretty good about these two and expect to firm that up within the next day phase or so.  

 

4. SoJames (Sooh & E James Todd) - Have we scared off James?     Engagement is good, seems to be pursuing leads aggressively. Gut feeling is probably town, she has fooled me before but I'm not too worried about her just now.

 

5. ed2funy - mehhhhh. Not sure I can read him.  Too much drunk posting.  He's probably OK.

 

6. Tigraine (Hallia) - Zero posts.  Waiting for Godot.

 

7. seph - Some of the things he's said realllllly remind me of his approach in Fight Club.  I was iffy on him at the time I noticed them in Fight Club, but he ended up as town. So, thinking he might be town here? 

 

8. Niniel - Potentially willing to vote here.  Her catchup notes felt really... superficial?  Cautious? 

 

9. DPR (DreadPirateRoberts) - I haven't seen anything from him that worries me yet, and I have seen at least one post that struck me as being exactly what I'd expect him to say as town.  So, slight town lean although I wouldn't trust the pirate as far as I can throw him.

 

10. Kronos the Wolfeh (WolfbrotherKronos) - Willing to vote.  Whoever mentioned he really hates being mafia, that is also what I recall.  I would have expected him to pop in to at least give us a heads up if he was going to be absent.  He was a lot more active in our Old West Mischief game, even early on.

 

11. Clov (Clovdyx) - I wouldn't normally feel comfortable town reading him D1 but I don't know that he'd bother doing what he's been doing as mafia.  Let's call it cautiously optimistic.

 

12. Killashandra - I want to give her time to settle in and learn the game and see where it goes.  Nothing has struck me as off just yet, which is a good sign.

 

13. manbat - Monstr is one of those people that I feel like I ought to be able to read better, but I never feel quite confident that I can.  Gun to head I'd say leaning town, but very unsure.  I would trust Town!Cory's read on him 95%.

 

 

Not willing to lynch atm:  SoJames, Shadory, Clov... possibly Ed, Darthe, DPR, Seph.  Most willing to lynch Kronos or Niniel today.

 

 

 

Half of these look like you're riding the fence...

 

Will you elaborate on Darthe and Seph? Why not Darthe today? And, I'm seeing Seph in a similar light, but I'm also seeing things here and there are different. What's your read on that?

[DPR]

Sooh -- ldo

Clov -- might be letting Cory's read color mine a bit, had a lot of doubts early but I've liked his play over the past 24 hours or so quite a lot

manbat -- everything feels about right, if he can sustain it

seph -- I keep tinfoiling here because some things don't add up on the surface about his thought process + confirmation bias irt other slots, but I honestly don't see his scum game being anywhere near this free-flowing and sustained.  Lack of any relevant scum history makes his wolf behavior less predictable but I don't expect it to look anything like this.

ed2funy -- generically speaking he's playing a pretty villagery game.  Lots of reaction testing without really exploiting the events for town cred.  Hard to hate it, cautious for lack of experience with him

Darthe -- aside from some comments I liked today, one thing in particular that I'd rather holster was very out of character for his scum game and makes more sense to me as town or maybe possibly SK if we have one

DPR -- he's had some moments of clarity of a sort that I don't remember seeing from him as either alignment in our first two games together, dunno if I should like that but I do.

Killashandra -- Her comment last night irt mods not randing first timers as wolves makes more sense in my head coming from a naive villager than from a wolf who knows its bs and therefor predicts we all know it's bs too

Songstress -- Lack of direct game-related engagement sticks out to me but I don't feel sufficiently informed to pass judgement aorn.  Her POE jived really well with my own so there's that.  I probably won't get to ISOing you this phase because I'm tired and deadline is tomorrow.  If Cory's got something big one way or another I'll roll with it, personally null.

Tigraine -- doesn't exist yet

Niniel -- meh

WolfbrotherKronos -- lynch with fire

 

 

 

 

FML. Darthe SK claim coming in 3... 2...

 

If you did this just to troll the game, I do think it's funny.

 

If you're serious, diaf. 

[Sooh]

you've been a delight this game sooh

#bloodofachampion

*eyes twinkle*

 

I'm on fire, baby!

[DPR]

 

Getting back to Batman regarding posts that ring my alarm bells:

 

I re-read your posts. The first 10+ pages are mostly high-fiving the handjob bros. 

 

Me, I'm part of the mothball brigade and back when this was all fields, we used to hunt scum... What we did not do was look for villagers and try not to mislynch. So there is a fundamental difference of opinion in how to go about this process. I've had long conversations with Shad and Seph about this and deep down inside, I think they are slowly starting to come around, but I digress:

 

 

 

Games like this kinda make me miss MU and PoG cause this is slowwwwwww goin

  

I guess it's ww for healthy well adjusted adults that are actually doing things irlnot me

I've played exactly one game in the past half year if you don't count some off-site scum rands. My typical instant barrage of meta bombs just feels stupid atm.The "who cares if I'm wrong let's see what happens" getting outweighed by the "lol I don't know what I'm doing".It will pick up.

Which three people do you believe are most likely to flip villager right now and why?

 

Nope.

 

shad is town because cory is town and cory is town because he's my frond

If i really wanted to give a reason to justify my read I'd probably say something like it's because I think Shad's posts about playing differently and not doing meta bombs rang villagery to me and cory once told me that the longer he goes without talking about the game the more likely it is he's a wolf and he jumped right into it

Afaicr the tell hasn't failed me yet thanks cory

 

#handjobclub

 

No this is legit a serious read of cory that comes from a time where he said "hey i do this thing as a wolf" and i went "wow you do, don't you?" I can't help but like my friends

 

 

 

Killa, my dealah, vote Manmeat

Honestly I was already considering it.

this is a wolf post

bark bark

[v]killashandra [/v]

 

I have no idea how you got here, but I lump you and Seph into the same category over it. I am genuinely asking what the reasoning was? 

 

Okay let's go through the scenario, assuming I am a villager. I don't care if you think I am or not, just bear with me. Ed offhandedly tells ks to vote me, and her firsy instinct is to say "yeah that sounds like a good idea"? For one, ed was admittedly drunk, so I'm not sure how one could believe it was a good idea to follow his leadn but for two it just screaaaaaams opportunism. That said i think her follow up posts were kinda villagery so, it is what it is

 

 

I meant we as in the villagers do not know much in the game pr that I had not learned much and asumed no one else had either. Seems that I just have no sense of what to watch for.

This might not be the game for me so go head and lynch me this day or the next.

It moves fast but never when I am checking. I have terrible timing.

Every one else likes clov and manbat as town but I feel they are scum together.

Just the way they seem all knowing and in on everything together.

There are a few not posting so are they no longer playing or waiting for night?

Ed is also odd but he is odd all the time so i dont know how to read that.

I dont feel a gut reaction to any of the other ladies playing yet.

If you're going to eat the rope i can't not give it to you

plus I don't see how you could think clov and I could be on a team together, and you'll have to walk me through that

the alternative is getting lynched

 

 

This struck me as odd given the "find the villagers and prevent a mislynch" style. Again, I'm genuinely asking if you'll resolve it.

 

I get that all of the bros can't be mafia, but some of them certainly could be - they have the same chance of being scum as anyone else and I question the overall value this play offers the town. That's what rings the bells.

 

The whole point of PoE is "if there are 0 wolves in these 5 names, there are three wolves in these 7 and I have increased my chances of voting a wolf with no reads at all to near 50% simply by finding villagers and refusing to lynch them

responses in bold. Overall I actually think it's kinda villagery to be this thorough irt my alignment, though you could be using my self-pronounced meta of wolves not knowing me tending to ignore me to try and pocket me, I kinda feel like it's the latter

 

 

DM won't let me do my blue thing above, so blue below:

 

"No this is legit a serious read of cory that comes from a time where he said "hey i do this thing as a wolf" and i went "wow you do, don't you?" I can't help but like my friends"

 

That's great and all, but you do see where it's not helpful because only you would know that.

 

"Okay let's go through the scenario, assuming I am a villager. I don't care if you think I am or not, just bear with me. Ed offhandedly tells ks to vote me, and her firsy instinct is to say "yeah that sounds like a good idea"? For one, ed was admittedly drunk, so I'm not sure how one could believe it was a good idea to follow his leadn but for two it just screaaaaaams opportunism. That said i think her follow up posts were kinda villagery so, it is what it is"

 

The only opportunism I saw there was your vote. Regardless of ed's post, you had just read where other players told Killa to post suspicions, which is what she did. She followed it up (I'll have to go back and find the quotes) by talking about the style of your posts, which I agreed with. Bottom line is, only a player that wanted to create a distraction would jump on that. It didn't look good for ed, Seph or you - 3 players who have done this enough to not get all jumpy on D1 and create needless fluff for everyone else to have to sort.

 

The whole point of PoE is "if there are 0 wolves in these 5 names, there are three wolves in these 7 and I have increased my chances of voting a wolf with no reads at all to near 50% simply by finding villagers and refusing to lynch them

 

Yeah, I've heard the speech before. I just don't get down with that style. The whole point of trying to find the bad guys is "if there is an axe murderer in the group, look for blood stains under fingernails, or an axe sticking out of their pocket". The whole "he's my bud, so i don't think it's him" thing doesn't wash. 

[Sooh]

I'm going to ISO Sooh just so I don't feel stupid

 

 

yeah she's a villager lol

 

Laughed at this.

[Sooh]

 

I'm hoping that we'll get more Tress, Darthe, Hallia, Niniel and Kronos before EOD, otherwise that's pretty much my pool.

sooh how do you feel about tress/darthe now?

 

I'm feeling slightly better about Tress. She didn't feel stressed about votes coming back in, but just calmly put her reads out there. I'll need more real time interaction before I feel comfortable, but the flashing red light is a little dimmer right now. 

 

I won't be able to read Darthe until he gives me a chance to, and I feel like I haven't gotten anything alignment indicative yet. I mean it's probably there, but there's nothing that I noticed that made me nod in approval or raise my eyebrows yet.

[Sooh]

Re: Bro club.

 

I've been there guys. I've felt annoyed and frustrated by the back petting that certain people have a tendency of doing. I don't think IT has changed since it annoyed me, so I must have changed. Possibly because I know that IF there's the slightest chance any of the bros are scum, the other bros will take them down with possibly more fire than they would take down any of the rest of us. Maybe I've learned as well. Learned that with certain people it pays off to pretend you're feeling comfortable with them from the get-go, have them talking to you, and then nailing them to the wall. It can be annoying when you're in the middle of the experience though, I do realize that. You might also be right that one of them or several are scum. Personally I may attempt to read them early on, or just get good initial feelings and leave them be for a bit, but I'm rarely sure. That's also a compliment I guess to their scum games, they are definitely more than capable of fooling me, so I just have to choose to believe one way or the other, and then adjust as I go. 

 

Don't hate the bros though. They mean no harm. <3

[Cory Caboose]

cory are you just volume reading me?

I made a whole post about my read on you :(

[Cory Caboose]

There is no bro club

 

If I thought monstr or clov or seph or sooh were wolves I would lunch them into oblivion (or at least try to) - ask any of them, I've done it before

 

I still evaluate every little thing they do

 

Familiarity of play allows you to have a higher degree of confidence with your reads on someone; goal for me is simply to try to have the best reads

[Cory Caboose]

This is exactly what I called bulls**t on earlier with Clov - he admits Seph looks bad, but then gives him a pass. Or when Cory votes me without posting any reasoning, I post a comment back and he pursues it like I'm avoiding him... which he got called on, and he avoided answering that.

what?

[Cory Caboose]

As for me "pursuing it like you are avoiding me"

 

You implied you were waiting for something

 

I asked what it was because I was curious, and because asking questions to fill out gaps in information is how I play the game

 

What is your problem?

[Cory Caboose]

Villagers working together setting a PoE and keeping town WIM levels above sunken are more likely to win than villages so paranoid they refuse to work with anyone and simply follow their own leads with communicating with the group

 

Most of the people in the game are villagers - that's easy statistics. I find it far easier to "solve" a game by assessing who is a villager to shrink the suspect pool and have a more informed shot % of hitting a wolf even among a group of somewhat unknowns alignment-wise

[Cory Caboose]

Without communicating**

 

Live together or die alone

[Cory Caboose]

A long-standing pet peeve is when implications of bias come pouring out for no reason

 

Everyone knows I'd lunch my own mother if she was being wolfy. No mercy 4 wolves

[Sooh]

There is no bro club

 

If I thought monstr or clov or seph or sooh were wolves I would lunch them into oblivion (or at least try to) - ask any of them, I've done it before

 

I still evaluate every little thing they do

 

Familiarity of play allows you to have a higher degree of confidence with your reads on someone; goal for me is simply to try to have the best reads

Sort of what I was trying to say, but I recognize the feeling that there's a bro club.