[Basic]Spirited Away Mafia - Game over mafia wins

[Regy Rusty]

Cory Cory where's cory

 

I need an adult

[Regy Rusty]

This ISO holy moly

 

If this is confirmation bias then my god

 

Hmmm hmm I'll be back this is going to be a monster

[Andrej]

I understand your concerns Regy, but you're falling into the fallacy that I've seen make town lose a lot of games.

 

Just because you don't think it's possible the scum didn't have a major role in the game doesn't mean it's not what happened. With this roster it really wouldn't shock me to be frank. You said yourself you've seen scum teams be completely off the board.

 

But like you're willing to completely ignore that terrible vote on Seph yesterday because you're too afraid some big bad wolf is pulling the strings from afar. You correctly read me the entire game, don't stop now. What I'm proposing makes sense to me because 1) it eliminates someone I strongly think is scum and 2) clears up another slot to make for an easier F5.

 

If Wifi is town then we basically know the scum is down to Hallia/Kat. If she's scum then boom, another wolf dead and now there's no question about Hallia.

[Regy Rusty]

I'm willing to bet the game that Wildfire/Kat are not a team

 

I do not believe that team would kill Darthe when they did

 

I do not believe that team gets the Seph lynch

 

I can't force people to believe me once I die, but what I can do is make the best case I can now, and make sure that Kat goes first.

[Andrej]

Don't spend your last Day tinfoiling on a spewed villager.

 

If you want Kat first I'm not going to stop that but I would rather essentially resolve two slots in one lynch.

 

And I think Darthe getting got N2 after pressuring Wildfire for those two previous phases over Clov who had essentially outed himself as the Doc wasn't an accident

[Regy Rusty]

Lynching Wildfire does not resolve anyone if Wildfire flips town

[Regy Rusty]

Resolve resolve resolve

 

You keep acting like we'll learn anything useful from a wildfire town lynch

 

But all we'll have done is waste our mislynch and still not know who Kat's partner is

 

Big ass post incoming and then I'm done until Cory comes to talk me down off the ledge

[Andrej]

Did you ignore my point about Hallia?

[Regy Rusty]

It doesn't work because you're still a suspect! That's my whole point!

I can vaguely imagine town you making this argument because it would resolve the game for you under those circumstances

But for the rest of us that situation is indistinguishable from you as mafia trying to make sure we mislynch the last two times you need

[Regy Rusty]

Haha this is very distracting my brain is going a mile a minute and I'm trying to think and create an argument and converse in real time all at once

 

If you're town I'm sure we'll clear this little mess up and there will be a lovely explanation for everything

[Regy Rusty]

Fortunately it is not up to me to decide and I'm thankful for that

 

If everyone else in the town participates we can get to the truth

[Cory Caboose]

We're lynching Kat today lol

 

Regy you're not crazy but I want Kat's flip before I reread. Just a time conservation thing.

[Cory Caboose]

I have potential AJ related doubts and I have at times thought both Hallia and WiFi were villagers consistently enough where it might be correct but still I could be wrong IDK

 

But Kat's a wolf and you always lynch the wolves first

[Regy Rusty]

Right we're unquestionably lynching Kat today

 

I had to reread now because I'm going to die tonight so it's gonna be up to you next phase

 

I've got a collection of AJ's posts that I think has some really juicy stuff in it but I'm so strung up I can't figure out how to format it reasonably

[Regy Rusty]

To be clear I am never NEVER arguing for anything but lynching Kat today

 

My case on AJ is 100% contingent on her being proved a wolf

[Cory Caboose]

I wouldn't be surprised if I died tbh

 

I'm similarly untouchable and have a reputation for digging into games and figuring them out when really trying

 

I have admittedly been going 50% at most lately bc real life stuff and needing to take care of myself over playing a game, but the wolves know I could start moving quickly

[Cory Caboose]

Not in terms of skill bc Regy is the man imo

 

But i'm more known on this forum, and SOMEONE killed darthe ffs

[Cory Caboose]

My major issue with Sili or AJ being a wolf is that kill but that might be stupid to consider

 

But I feel both are vocal about a better kill option whereas a WiFi or Hallia might defer to a Kat, etc.

[Cory Caboose]

But they could have just been not there, idk, would have to look

 

Or they could have thought he was doc for ??? reasons

[Regy Rusty]

It could've been a brian kills Twigav situation or it could've been a doc hunt

[Andrej]

I was definitely around when Clov claimed. There's never a world where I don't shoot him N2 even if I thought there was a chance he was faking it. I'd call the double bluff versus being wrong on another slot considering the Doc's importance to this set up.

 

The Darthe kill really only makes sense in the light that he was on the right track and others were not imo. I didn't personally believe he had Doc equity because Clov had been softing from like D1

[Cory Caboose]

AJ what do you think of Hallia

[Andrej]

Regy, your arguments predicates that me as Kat's partner am trying to set up a Morton's fork argument in order to ML Wildfire and Hallia in consecutive phases, all the while keeping Kat alive?

 

I mean, that's a pretty deep theory but the last bit kind of crumbles it.

 

What reason do you really have to think Wifi is town besides that she's been sussed by a lot of people? I think that vote on Seph outed her, the reasoning behind it is super bad and now apparently her scum read on Cory has vanished.

 

Like she didn't even address anything Seph was saying. Cory was the reason for her vote.

[Andrej]

AJ what do you think of Hallia

Her voting record is pretty bad outside of D2. I didn't understand why she was voting some players D1. Sili was like a policy thing after he put Regy on ignore. Darthe was for ???. Her Wildfire vote makes sense on its face, and I've said before that sort of reaction is what I expect from Hallia, but the timing is kind of coincidental with BFG's wagon dissolving.

 

I'm not putting too much value in why I was town reading her earlier atp because I don't think it's good enough to continue being relevant but I do think she still looks considerably better than the other two ladies.

[Regy Rusty]

AJ MAY WELL BE A WOLF: THE CASE

 

First, in the following posts all from early to mid Day 1, AJ starts off consistently reading Kat as town. At this time her content was very low and most people had her at null at best, with a few more suspicions being thrown around here and there. AJ all but defends her a handful of times.

 

BFG is mentioned once in all this, as null.

 

 

 

Also would say Kat is a >>>>villa just based on her stubborn tone responding to Alanna about early reads, etc.

Hallia's engagement level looks good so far.

 

Sirren I am going to take my sweet time with reading this game, now that I know how wide her range is.

 

Cory I am just going to town read and quietly stomach the dread that I know I could never catch him anyway.

 

Alanna looks so-so for trying to force early content. The amusing part for me is that her content thus far reads much like her accusation of Kat.

 

 

 

i read 5 pages like  hours ago. and halfway through 6 or 7.

though i think i may have been a bit hasty on my vote.

Which posts?

 

it was more on the lines of kats posts. I think she has a good chance to be scum, and i don't think her and the hydra would be t/t

 

Interesting.

 

You'll see eventually, but I said earlier I think Kat's response to Alanna digging at her was pretty townie. Why do you think it's the other way around?

 

Fwiw outside of Kat's response I really don't have any other reason to have a read on her.

 

Gonna stick with it for now though, mostly cause I'm an egomaniac.

@Clov - I'd need to reread it again. I remember while skimming before asking myself how Zander missed the point but I don't remember specifically how it played out.

 

On BFG I don't have an opinion. Nothing of her content stands out to me and just now when I saw her with over 30 posts I was a little surprised. We'll see how she develops.

[v]Darthe[/v]

 

I like options.

 

Power skimming at work leaves me with a lot to digest in a short amount of time.

 

I thought Regy's handling of Sili over the ignore thing was good. Seems objective and being considerate that Sili just has some alien playstyle, which is true.

 

Hallia's vote is a policy thing? I think it's pretty well known that Sili gets into arguments like that and though I think they're counter productive it's not scummy. Don't really track her stance there.

 

Still think Kat could be a villa. From what I've seen in our most recent games scumming together she's a lot more quick to throw shade in return to accusations and her approach to Sirren doesn't fit that imo. My take is that she's expressed she needs time to process and I'm okay with that for now. Give her some breathing room and then if it persists into later phases you put the vice on it.

 

 

In our next set of posts, AJ seems to get more of an impression of BFG. He says he likes her posts even though they aren't very many. Unlike some of us, he never visibly considers BFG as a lynch target this phase. Instead, once she has collected several votes, he votes Zalanna without much explanation, saying only that he didn't want to dogpile BFG and he "likes options". He mentions Kat once in this period, finally admitting she hasn't done much and calling her an "emergency valve lynch". This is not followed up on. Cory is mentioned once at the height of the suspicion on him as AJ's most likely target.

 

 

 

That was about nine levels too deep.

 

Do you think the parallels to the Matrix game are valid?

 

I didn't hate BFG's posts, aside from disagreeing with the Sili read but that's minor to the bigger elephant in the room.

 

Tbh right now I am just soaking it all in and going circles in my own head while I sit in lab working on my sheet metal project. I am starting to get to a point where the AtE from Cory feels intentional. Like I said earlier I know he harps all the time about thread flow, environment, etc. and I kind of hate that I have to decide whether I believe his posts now. I feel the latest ones especially were laid on thick.

 

I have personally never seen Cory be looked at as a viable lynch before, in any alignment, so I really don't know how he would handle it. I've seen him sussed before and react in similar manners, but never really to this extent.

 

I am also thinking about the amount of people that have pointed it out, made comments on it, etc. And I know some theories would say there's bound to be wolves in that company if Cory is a villager I also find it hard to ignore the fact it's been mentioned by so many because the points have merit imo. Takes a village to lynch a wolf, etc.

 

So basically I am stuck deciding whether I think the reward could be worth the risk when it comes to him. If he's a villager I would feel terrible after going through all this mess but if he's a wolf I don't know if there would be another viable chance to get it done. Like already I can tell his mood is affecting others and essentially sucking the air out of the room and thus his wagon momentum.

 

So yeah, sort of mind boned rn and trying to regroup. I feel confident enough with my town reads at least.

 

Who do you want to lynch, AJ?

I'm to a point where I might ride or die with Cory.

 

I'm not close to feeling comfortable with Darthe yet and as I said earlier there's a good bit of polarity between him and Cory that will say a lot about the other. I'm curious as to why he has me as one of his top town reads after making a comment that I seem atypical to my usual self.

 

I would like more consistent content from BFG, but I wasn't unimpressed or anything with her posts from tonight. I'm also taking what you said into consideration.

 

Zanalynn trended up some as well for me. My reservations were more with Laine and I think she brought some decent content tonight. I also think her trepidation irt Cory is genuine.

 

The people I feel most confidently are town are you, Sirren and Regy, and Sili. Pretty much unless you're a wolf with BFG I don't think you'd go to such depth in forming that read. Even if it was a w/v scenario, that was a hell of a leveling play that I'm not anywhere close to tinfoiling on. Probably never will tbh.

 

Sili is a player I think is obvious in either alignment. I've never really had a hard time sussing him out as scum because his reads tend to be pretty superficial. Erratic and all that, it's depth I'm looking for with his thoughts and I think he's cleared his wolf range atp.

 

Beyond that I think you've looked good today, so I think you're tabled for me.

 

Seph's last couple of posts are weird and I don't really know what to make of them. I don't see the reason for making such long in Corey's defense when I think a lot of the potential there has already dissipated at Cory's own doing.

 

I don't wanna touch Clov today. I said last night I wasn't gonna tinfoil and I'm gonna stick with that until I have more concrete info to work with than paranoia.

 

Wildfire's posts mean nothing to me but I echo the sentiment that it's an extremely lazy lynch atp

 

Kat would probably be an emergency valve lynch but I'm putting zero weight behind that. I know I said I'd give her time to bud, but the more she talks about needing time to bud the less patient I find myself. I relate it sort of like I would with Cass, where one of her tells is to continually say that she isn't current and doesn't want to engage until current and around and around it goes.

 

Hallia I still have as town if somewhat lighter than the others. I reserve the right to recant this later if I think it's necessary.

I'm back at work now.

 

[v]Zalanna[/v]

 

BFG is already ahead at 4 but she's around now and I don't wanna dog pile needlessly yet.

 

Plus, I like options.

 

 

Final block of posts. As early as Night 1 AJ starts planting the seeds of a Seph lynch. He's one of the first to point out his voting behavior as suspicious. He pushes this consistently and confidently throughout his presence on Day 2 before leaving the thread for his trip before the flip. Additionally he begins promoting the idea that the game really is without a strong active scum. First it's Seph/Kat wins the game. Then he reiterates multiple times that the scum may have checked out or are not trying. If it's not Seph/Kat he says, it's DEFINITELY one of WF/Hallia. Essentially he's been pushing this narrative without doubt or deviation since Day 2.

 

 

 

 

 

His vote on BFG is important to that transition, Regy.

Did seph vote for BFG? I have to go back and look

 

Yes, he was third on her wagon before you voted iirc.

 

Actually on second thought that's sort of bold for a bus vote if they're w/w since at the time I think she was tied with some other wagons. Would need to reread the sequence but before I voted Zalanna I think the lynch was easily going to be BFG

 

Sorry I blew it :(

 

Right now I'm looking to go BFG then Seph.

 

Depending on Seph that will affect my read on Kat. Early on he made a statement that he thought Kat/Zalanna looked like w/v but he wasn't sure which was what. Clov attacked it pretty hard and I don't really remember the resolution to it. Zalanna, we know now, but I'm not sure Seph has the gonads as a wolf to pit two villagers against each other like that out of the gate.

 

Kat independently is on a timer for me. I thought her telling Laine to buzz off early on for not having any reads was more villagery than not but now D1 is over so the excuse of being had at D1 is no longer valid. She's later in my POE fwiw.

 

Wildfire is Dawnflower 2.0 and atp I think Hallia's alignment hinges on hers. Like I think Hallia's intrinsic reaction to Wildfire's bad read on her seems natural, but she's also not a hard target to attack whatsoever. In comparison I'm still giving Hallia the nod in a head to head decision.

 

Darthe/Sili would be my last two ~possibilities but I doubt it ever comes to that point if we resolve within this five correctly.

I'm sort of getting afraid the game is gonna be decided with a Wildfire lynch.

 

Like either way I'm not totally stunned

2EZ theory, so to speak.

 

Questions keep popping up since BFG/Seph looks so easy but I just want to remind everyone that talking yourself out of a scum read is -Ev when that player isn't doing anything to clear themselves.

 

Like Seph definitely has the potential to be an obvious villager. I fried my bacon one game sticking my neck out for him D1 against Ithi and had to suffer her wrath for the rest of the phase

There's never a world where WF is ever a NK target now that she's made it clear she's not the doc - or probably ever with this roster, no offense - but does scum!WF seriously say something like that?

 

I know, terrible reasoning and I hate to do it again after clearing her so easily in our last game but that's kind of where my head is at.

No.

 

I was literally just thinking about that

 

Seriously I think the scum have checked out.

Seph/Kat wins this game I think.

 

If one is a villager it comes down to WF/Hallia like every time.

 

If both are villagers then I don't even wanna consider that :(

 

Prob Regy in that case

 

 

In conclusion: he started off mostly townreading the BFG and Kat. He has never pushed Kat directly to discuss things. He has claimed repeatedly that the scum are not heavily active or invested and that the game really is "easy", despite the fact that he's been part of two mislynches which should I feel at least somewhat shake confidence.

 

And it all caps off with what finally got me suspicious just a few pages ago, in which he proposed the one single course of action that is most perfect for him if he's scum.

 

That's what I've seen, that's what I've got. I feel like I'm right about this. I am not 100% sure, but this is what I would personally go for:

 

Lynch Kat. If she's mafia, Lynch AJ. If he's mafia we win. If he's town then it's down to Hallia and Wildfire which I admit is NOT IDEAL.

 

But at this point I think I'd rather that than let it be down to Hallia and AJ on the final phase.

 

That's all I've got, this is exhausting, I'll be up for about half an hour more and then I'm done for the night and most of the morning.