[BASIC/STANDARD] Warcraft: War of the Ancients Mafia - GAME OVER, MAFIA WINS

[Askthepizzaguy]

Basically, if we're right, we are totally winning this game.

 

If we're wrong, Pralaya is not going anywhere. He still dies.

 

They're both in the POE. The only place they're going is up or down in the POE.

 

The order doesn't matter unless we're wrong about Pralaya.

[Askthepizzaguy]

If Pralaya is town and I'm blocked, it could be a few phases before we get to kaylee and by then, the persons willing to lynch her are dead.

[Askthepizzaguy]

If Pralaya is scum, he's going to die more or less immediately.

 

There's nothing to lose here.

[Askthepizzaguy]

 

Vote: Kaylee

 

Csarmi might not have been feeding me fuel, he might have been trying to persuade me off of Kaylee actually.

 

Kaylee's position on Csarmi could be distancing and bussing.

 

Explain the bold for me? In the Csarmi ISO what I gathered was he was agreeing with you, how is this 'persuading you off Kaylee'?

 

I'm still not fully across that period of the game (p.50-70ish?). 

 

I think I mentioned this conclusion earlier though. My thoughts were if they're WW both of them had everything to gain from bussing at a point where it was likely Kaylee was gaining traction and there was at least my vote and some suspicion surrounding him. At the time I also felt like Kay might be scum using the bus to buddy me.

 

At one point she claimed to be removing tinfoil from her read of me, this phase she put me straight back into contention as possible deep wolf, following Pral's suggestion I was the most likely to have bussed. Feels convenient.

 

 

 

 

Pral: your points against me are stronger for D1. What I mean is that my reads strong and I was very wishy washy. Since D2 started however, I've made solid reads considering the info we gained. I've made points/arguments why I have my reads where they are. Having me as one of your top scum reads for liking posts is weak at this point in the game. I could see if I hadn't put in any work but I have.

Uh? That doesn't mean anything. Just because you are scum doesn't mean that you will just pocket somebody and do nothing. Of course there will be other things also - casing, nudging etc etc. It is the small things to notice.

 

Incidentally, most of your "I like this" posts are usually for points against an easy lynch candidate. INitially it was Lenlo, where Pizza made a case against him. When he came out as cop, your posts were focused on Celeste and me.

 

It is when seen as a whole that my points make sense. Again., context matters heavily. It is not a "Oh, she likes posts and hence scum" kind of thing.

 

Actually, the above replies have kind of convinced me she is scum. This is not going to happen but it is here for others to see after they know my flip

[v]Kaylee[/v]

 

 

This reads like a villager replying to someone he actually believes is scum.

 

 

That doesn't mean that Kaylee's scum though. And IMO it's not enough to make Pral clear.

 

Kaylee's initial reply seems weak/generic to me but I can see her posting that as Town, vaguely remember something similar from HoC. 

 

Pral's post is more aggressive/convinced in tone than anything else I've seen of his, which fits the vote but could equally be scum aiming for a mislynch he thinks might actually gain traction.

 

 

Why Kaylee over Nolder?

 

Nolder's not going anywhere either.

 

If Pralaya is town, Nolder always has to die this game.

[Askthepizzaguy]

This is as far as I got while ISO'ing Pralaya.

 

 

 

689- Points at Cass for unusual thing

1348- Gives one reason why Turin is town, one reason why Nolder is town, one reason why Zander is town, no reason why Shad is town, puts me town on tone, pings at Kaylee for playing it safe, pings Celeste and Lenlo for being forced.

 

I don't like this generally, and is why Pralaya needs to be resolved this game. One reason here, one reason here, feels faked. But it could just be Pralaya's way while he's catching up. His behavior improves after this.

1349- Reads to page 30
http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/96393-basicstandard-warcraft-war-of-the-ancients-mafia-day-two/page-68?do=findComment&comment=3588589
1354- says still on page 30

1619- explains town read on Turin after the claim was before the claim, and why town reading him.

 

I actually think his read on Turin could be independent of the claim, because if he's in the know, he probably has teammates keeping him up to date on stuff. Sure Csarmi wasn't paying super close attention but Zander was. And I think they had an active wolf outside of Pralaya.

1640- Still catching up.
1664- Was truthfully on Kaylee before me. For reasons I later pointed out and so did he.

 

If Kaylee is scum, this is huge for Pralaya.

1691- a limited interaction with Zander.
1693- Page 85, caught up to page 50. Kaylee/Lenlo as scum. Thinks Wish/Celeste is not wolf/wolf. Likes reasoning why Celeste is probably town.

 

Removes mislynches from our grasp, imo.

1768- Gives superficial reasons to suspect Lenlo. Still suspects Kaylee.
1815- Votes Kaylee, willing to lynch Wish or Lenlo. (Wish probably based on tally.)

 

If Kaylee is scum, this is huge.

1821- correctly notes his early push on Kaylee.

2712- Complains it is now page 136.
2714- Points out Csarmi asked to be bussed in previous games.

 

This could be TMI, but it is also null, because it's true, he would know that as either alignment, how Csarmi acts as scum.

2745- gives Nolder a really town lean for voting me. (I disagree with the reasons given, but consider the alignment possibly true anyway.)

 

Again, I don't feel like he's trying to find mislynches for us to lynch, I think he's acting to avoid mislynches.

2748- Explains why Cass could be using TMI to push Csarmi with unique reasons. Unnatural points tell, basically. Explains Cass probably bussed Csarmi.

 

Whether Cass is scum or not, I like this thought process.

2750- Links people who voted Csarmi early to people pushing on Nolder D2.

 

Again, I like that process.

2789- leaves.

2972- doubles down on Cass read.
2973- gives example of Zander distancing but not pushing Cass.
2982- puts Wish and Shad as likely town due to Zander.
2983- defends idea about Cass.
3007- tinfoils Lenlo
3048- reinforces Lenlo's claim after the claim.
3062- WTL Cass, Celeste, Laine, Kaylee. Laine and Kaylee for POE, explained Cass already.
3125- Again points to early wagon on Csarmi.

3416- Again explains Cass' reasons on Csarmi were forced. Goes into greater thinking detail
http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/96393-basicstandard-warcraft-war-of-the-ancients-mafia-day-two/page-171?do=findComment&comment=3591324

3421- website issues, reiterates point about how Wish is town because.

 

He's very consistent on this.

3422- explains that what Shad was saying about Zander's new bussing method applies to Cass.

 

Again, regardless of Cass' alignment this is a good look.

3423- explains that scum-lo would have claimed vig.
3424- says that Laine's WTL list is similar to his.
3425- reiterates Cass read.
3426- says he already explained this stuff, Cass.
3432- has a feeling Celeste is town despite her being in POE and her performance to date. Says Cass and Kaylee are the final 2 scums.

 

Feels like a villager's attempt to solve.

3433- In spite of my reasons why I think I could be wrong on Kaylee, Pralaya points out her game hasn't changed since Zander and Csarmi flipped, that she is simply nodding and agreeing a lot.
3434- Last will and testament- lynch Kaylee and Cass. Hardclaims vanilla.
3454- Probably the best post of Pralaya's. Votes Kaylee.
3463-
 

 

 

 

 

Based on this, I'm willing to give Pralaya the gun and have his shot on Kaylee resolved.

 

Kaylee was also hunted by me hard and the reaction from the scum team was to be very skeptical.

[Askthepizzaguy]

If Kaylee's town, he doesn't have a lot going for him progress wise.

 

He's gotta go. Most of those blues disappear if Kaylee is town.

 

But if Kaylee is scum, this game is a town victory.

[Askthepizzaguy]

So I need that vote movement. Please.

[Askthepizzaguy]

There's no guarantees I get a shot tonight, or that Lenlo gets a scan.

 

I want a dead godfather or roleblocker today, that's why the order of the POE matters so much.

 

Pralaya as godfather or roleblocker here is feeling less likely than Kaylee. But if that's wrong, and Pralaya is scum, he's still pretty much caught because now he will look even worse.

 

If they're both villagers the order doesn't matter.

[Askthepizzaguy]

We still have over two hours.

 

I need the votes to move ASAP.

[Cass]

Cass, are you persuade-able?

 

If I give you clear reasons will you follow me? I just want to know if I'm talking to an ally, or someone who will stall my bill in committee.

 

Time is ticking so I don't want to expend too much energy on this if you won't budge. So just a heads up if you will move if the reasons are clear enough, would be helpful.

 

I'm persuadable, just have concerns. Gimme a sec

 

 

Not stalling, 4Yo just woke up crying with what sounds like croup  

 

[Askthepizzaguy]

Put it like this, Cass

 

If you move your vote, Kaylee gets resolved and I will make the attempt on Pralaya if she's town.

 

If you don't move your vote, we're risking a no lynch situation.

 

We'll just be back here tomorrow.

 

Consolidate with me plz

[Askthepizzaguy]

 

Cass, are you persuade-able?

 

If I give you clear reasons will you follow me? I just want to know if I'm talking to an ally, or someone who will stall my bill in committee.

 

Time is ticking so I don't want to expend too much energy on this if you won't budge. So just a heads up if you will move if the reasons are clear enough, would be helpful.

 

I'm persuadable, just have concerns. Gimme a sec

 

 

Not stalling, 4Yo just woke up crying with what sounds like croup  

 

 

 

Do me a favor-

 

Move your vote, and if you're not persuaded, move it back.

 

Fair?

[Kaylee]

 

 

Anything going on hereDeadline is in 30 minutes

 

Did you read it wrong or trying to add fear and rush the lynch? Just wondering. Cuz deadline says Monday 11th @ 9am MST...it's roughly 11 hours away. Are you not in states?

 

What made you think it might be red?

Thought I'd she's possibly scum she could be trying to get Pral lynched, if he's town. I'm pretty sure I read somewhere that here time zone is only two hours ahead of mine so not sure why she would think it was almost Monday morning. The mod did make an announcement about a longer deadline being after the weekend. So unless she had forgotten that point... It was a thought I had.

[Kaylee]

Meh, suppose you're gone now.

 

Well, you never sussed Lenlo for doing the same thing D1, and you were around when he did it.

 

It's a stupid little thing.  I just tend to think most people are never bothered by this sort of mistake but those who are will be bothered by it every time.

 

And it's a weird question all around because obviously you don't think Wish is going to respond with "dang, you got me".  You asked it to put the thought out there.  I'd have felt slightly less troubled if you had just, you know, put the thought out there.

It's only because tinfoil on Wish. Just a thought I had going to bed. Yes I found it odd when Leno did it but didn't say anything then. Would have to look at the time it happened to tell you what I was thinking on him at the time.

[wish-tree]

I'm here, Pizza. Do you need me to move my vote? I read your reasoning on Kaylee - to resolve her before Pralaya.

[wish-tree]

What makes you think that Pralaya is less likely to be scum roleblocked/godfather than Kaylee?

[wish-tree]

*roleblocker

[wish-tree]

Is anyone around to chat?

[wish-tree]

>.< what's the current vote count?

[Kaylee]

l feel like I have said all my thoughts at this point. If you have any questions I'm here.

Anything to say about what I recently pointed out about you?

[Songstress]

OFFICIAL VOTE COUNT:
 
Kaylee (3): Pral, Pizza, Laine
Pralaya (4): Kaylee, Wish, Lenlo, Celeste
 
Not voting (3): Shad,  Nolder, Cass
 
----------
 
Pral is at L-2
 
With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch
Day 2 deadline is Monday, January 11 @ 9 AM MST (11 AM EST)
http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20160111T09&p0=197&msg=End+of+Day+Two&font=cursive&csz=1

[wish-tree]

About the recently pointed out stuff, I addressed it a few posts back. Before, I'd assumed that the deadline was midnight on Monday. However, since people were talking about hammering, I got confused and thought they were staying up for a deadline.

[Kaylee]

I promise my teammate isn't Shad. Please don't lynch him now

An admitting your scum and he's town? Otherwise why so sure?

[wish-tree]

Who are your remaining wolves, Kaylee?

[wish-tree]

Yeah, I found that post by Nolder weird too.