[BASIC/STANDARD] Warcraft: War of the Ancients Mafia - GAME OVER, MAFIA WINS

[Kaylee]

 

3-4 mafia for 13 players? Agreed or Disagreed

 

I'm going to go with 4.

We've seen 2 goons so far which makes me think the team isn't heavily roled and one just died at night indicating a vig or SK.

 

So 2 more.

I agreed and likely one deep wolf.

[Kaylee]

Honestly I'm really tempted to say Zander totally spewed Cass town by continually characterizing her suspicions of him as paranoia.  He wasn't just trying to fake a case/defense.  He was trying to make her feel stupid for doubting him.

This I really agreed with

[Kaylee]

[v]Celeste[/v]

 

Yup. Pizza Lock town at this point. Still think im right on Nolder and Shad. Zander was obv prepping to go at me come morn, so short of some late bus tinfoil im pretty clear. Laine pretty obv town at this point to.

 

That leaves Kaylee, Wish, Pral, Cass and Celeste

 

In order of townieness to scummness im thinking this.

 

Cass

Wish

Kaylee/Pral

Celeste

 

Id lynch from the bottom up.

You may be right about him maybe setting you up. My order would be

 

Pral\Celeste first

maybe Leno

Nol last since I've liked a lot of what he's said

[Askthepizzaguy]

Page 50...

 

I can't hold on any longer.... I can't.... I'm weak..... I'm too weak....

 

I gotta go grocery shopping. But let's just say it looks pretty bad in Lenloville as of right now.

[Kaylee]

I need to look into Turin a bit more. I believe a clue could be in his posts. I'm on my phone though.

I am interested to see what that is. However, he was town and had no more info than any other townie so keep that in mind as well.

[Kaylee]

I couldn't finish ISOing Zander last night.

 

a) I had seen enough

b) I was tired af

c) Sooh was going to bed and I wanted cuddle tiems

d) I was kinda hoping a vig would shoot Zander so I wouldn't have to continue

 

Good shot, vig. That was never a SK because a scum went down already, outed doctor, the scums would shoot the doctor, so you know you have a free shot on obvious townies like myself.

 

Ergo, we have a lock clear vigilante.

That makes sense

[Pralaya]

Page 50...

 

I can't hold on any longer.... I can't.... I'm weak..... I'm too weak....

 

I gotta go grocery shopping. But let's just say it looks pretty bad in Lenloville as of right now.

Are you talking about the progression from "Zander? Is he playing?" to "Like duh? Csarmi, Zander are lock scums" to "Zander bro. I had you town all along !" ?

[Kaylee]

If we work really hard today we can end the game even faster than World's End.

Not familiar with that game but let's do it!

[Kaylee]

IMO put Shad and myself on Ignore mode when you do re-reads.

 

Those people should be blue.

 

Nolder.

What was the reason for saying Nol at the end here? I don't understand

[Kaylee]

Penny. If Pizza is wolf, he just tried to lynch both of his teammates d1.

Which is a terrible tactic

[Askthepizzaguy]

This is what I have seen.

 

Just to explain before I reveal my 1/3 finished notes on the game thusfar:

 

Because Csarmi was the most expendable wolf team member, being low-content, kinda trolly, and accidentally partly outed himself with the Kaylee defense, and wasn't making strong inroads into being town-read by anyone (anyone but Nolder teehee) and he was a goon, basically, the best use for him is to be bussed at an opportune moment. And that's what happened.

 

However, because of his (relatively) low posing and extremely low actual content or interactions, I've been focusing much more on Zander.

 

He was also a goon, but had been making inroads into getting town-read by a lot of people. Except Shad, pretty much. Even I was close to putting him more than half light green, half null, but that's as far as he got because too many null posts.

 

Still, he has a lot of ability to control the thread and take a leadership role, and because he's all over the place, he can plausibly go after whoever he wants. He's good at generating plausible Zander-like BS. And that's valuable to the wolf team.

 

So he's assuming he's going to live for a while, as is the rest of his wolf team.

 

WITH THAT IN MIND, I examined the following:

 

A) Who Zander talked to

B) Who talked back to Zander

and during those, I noted which of those interactions looked the most clearing (+) or damning (-) for each person.

C) Who he wants more suspicion and votes on.

D) What his leans are.

 

And finally

 

E) Things people said to Zander or about Zander which I feel are alignment indicative.

 

F) And for added bonus fun, since Zander likes to say lolololol, instead of the usual 1 marker for each instance of a thing I saw, I alternated l and o to make more lols.

 

Because I loves me some Zander. This one goes out to you, broheim.

 

 

==========================================

 

Zander
Speaks to Shad- ++++++++++lolololololololololololololololololololololo
Speaks to ATPG- lolololololololololololololololololololo
Speaks to Cass- +++++lololololololololololol
Speaks to Celeste- +++lolololololololo
Speaks to Laine- +lololololololololo
Speaks to Wish- lololololololololol
Speaks to Kaylee- lolololololol
Speaks to Turin- lolololo
Speaks to Nolder- lolololo
Speaks to Csarmi- lolo
Speaks to Pralaya- l
Speaks to Lenlo- ---lololololololol

Askthepizzaguy speaks to Zander- lolololololololololololo
Alanna speaks to Zander- lololololo
Cass speaks to Zander- +lololololol
Nolder speaks to Zander- lolo
Lenlo speaks to Zander- lololololol
Wish speaks to Zander- +++lololololo
Kaylee speaks to Zander- lolol
Celeste speaks to Zander- +lololo

Wants me to vote Wish- lololololololololo
Wants me to vote Celeste- lololo
Wants me to vote Turin- lo

Leans 501
Pizza- Green
Lenlo- Green
Kaylee- Light Green
Alanna- Light Green
Cass- Null Green
Shad- Null Green
Nolder- Null Lean town
Pralaya- Null
Csarmi- Null
Turrin- Orange
Celeste- Orange/Red
Wish- Mostly Red

Speaks about Zander:
79 Cass "Zander and Laine making me wary"
109 Cass "In a nutshell, Zander feeling a little forced..."
117 Cass (Lots of negative reads on Zander, mitigated by "doubt I'm voting you today")
233 Lenlo "See, I didnt get the feeling she was calling you scum. Your abit defensive here about it to, which I dont know how I feel about, and thats bad. Focus on being the Zander from previous games or else I may have to lynch you."
238 Cass  "I like both the observation and the question here from Zander.
I actually liked the entire post except for the 'hmmmmmmm' part of his 'hmmmmmmmm lolololololololol' comment. More importantly I think it's a good, villagery sign that he's spanning out and focusing on more players. One thing I think I picked up on in ZanderDiaboloScum! was a rather persistently, closed tunneling feel. He felt more restrained and fake."
262 Lenlo "Zander felt abit defensive about Cass and hasnt done much since. That worries me with him."
293 Laine: "Zander and I always joke back and forth and pretty much always town read each other early. Doesn't mean I'm not wary of him, because I've seen him play as mafia. We did the same thing as scum mates and nobody thought it was forced lol"
"Zander always jokes. Until he finds scum or "finds scum." Then he's SRS BNS."
321 Lenlo "I know you do that Z, but this time when calling it out it felt defensive, rather than offensive. When you call people out for doing scummy things you go at them. Your are taking what feels off and going on the offensive with it. That instance though felt more defensive in nature and was off to me."
397 Wish "I don't understand how Zander is reading me if he thinks I'm Penny... We're two completely different players."
429 Nolder "Joke response. Tone is natural. Meta indicates this may be unusual as Xander often engages in hypotheticals with other players to determine alignment. -1.5"
449 Celeste " Well than excuse you for not seeing that I don't have the average tells of a townie because y'all are too focused on average tells. I'm still looking and not certain with reads except for the one's on Cass and Wish. The whole fact that y'all are pushing into a defensive corner doesn't help because it blocks the scum hunting. If you guys are so adamant that I'm not a townie than congrats you have your first mislynch. I'm done defending this little issue with the timing of my unvote."
651 Laine "Additionally, what do I gain by trying to get you on my side? I could just as easily top town read Zander or Pizza and buddy them, or even a different player who I think will have a lot of sway with the town. But why, if were going under the assumption that I'm doing this to gain your favor, would I choose you?" (@ Lenlo)
669 Me "Zander- Are you trying to pocket me?"
673 Me "I want a solid post from Zander that pushes me irrevocably in that direction. Like, I completely nailed one two games ago, and made the game much easier to read. He got ate in fact."
682 about 262 Cass "Complete mind-melding with Lenlo on this post. @ZANDER THIS DOESN'T MEAN I THINK YOU'RE SCUM. It means I'm still trying to figure your alignment out."
"Zander. The more I read of you, the more it's like looking into a mirror of my mind \m/ . Your 'pinged gut feel' is wrong. I'm legit me here, I'll figure you out!"
762 Wish "I'm also wondering why Zander isn't replying to my isos."
773 Cass "Move Zander closer to null and put Pizza null-town and this is a good list IMO
Zander's null because he's active and probing and enthusiastic (good) but may be extra tinfoily/tunnellish and seems to give few detailed opinions beyond being suspicious. Still watching this space."
790 Wish "I thought that's what I did..... I thought you wanted me to go back and iso things in order to explain things. what?"
807 Cass "YW :) But I'm more interested in you expressing what it was you actually found... Spill?"
837 Cass "I got that bit, I want you to examine it and your gut read and give examples of where you feel he's stretching/wishy-washy. Your 'reasons' are so vague they're null to scum refusing to commit. Work with me!"


Other thoughts:
Cass unlikely to be wolf with Zander
Shad unlikely to be wolf with Zander
Laine unlikely to be wolf with Zander
Wish unlikely to be wolf with Zander
Shad unlikely to be wolf with Zander
I'm not a wolf with Zander
Kaylee not blue yet, but looks ok
Nolder not blue yet, but looks ok
Celeste looking better as of pg 50
 

 

Conclusion: Not conclusive, but Lenlo will always have to be resolved mechanically at this point and he looks the worst. So let's lynch him.

[Askthepizzaguy]

When I get back from the store, I'll explain that.

 

It is probably inexplicable to most folks.

[Kaylee]

I would like everyone (including my villagers, because I want your input), regardless of their confidence in their reads, and regardless of their villager list, to do a thought experiment for me. This can be done at your leisure, when you're burned out from data mining D1.

 

If you needed to get yourself town-read yesterday, and were Zander and Csarmi's partner, what is your battle strategy?

 

Just be generic. Walk me through your process as scum. Put yourself in that person's shoes.

 

You're the Godfather or the Roleblocker, someone you really don't want to lose day one or pretty much ever. Especially now.

 

How would you have behaved yesterday?

 

Not how did you behave. Talking hypothetically.

As scum I would've had a solid scum read on a townie and pushed as hard as I could. I likely would've gone along with Zander and voted Wish. As scum I don't like to come across as too wishy washy.

 

Actually did: wishy washy. Swayed a lot by others. Only found townies I could trust. Bad D1.

[Songstress]

OFFICIAL VOTE COUNT:
 
Kaylee (1): Celeste

Celeste (1): Lenlo

Lenlo (1): Pizza
 
Not voting (7): Shad, Kaylee, Laine, Wish, Pral, Nolder, Cass
 
----------
 
With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch
Day 2 deadline is Monday, January 11 @ 9 AM MST (11 AM EST)
http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20160111T09&p0=197&msg=End+of+Day+Two&font=cursive&csz=1

[Kaylee]

If you are town, you would typically not declare you are and would sub-consciously know you are town and proceed in that aspect. The whole quote of Cass, like I said, looked forced. And, that is why it looks odd out there. The expected response would have been "Csarmi, you are the on who told me blah blah blah but in this game you are doing blah blah blah"

But I can still see her saying it that as town. It's part of how she posts.

[Kaylee]

Page 50...

 

I can't hold on any longer.... I can't.... I'm weak..... I'm too weak....

 

I gotta go grocery shopping. But let's just say it looks pretty bad in Lenloville as of right now.

Very interested in what your have to say about him. His attitude about "I'm not getting lynched" (can't remember the exact wording) was odd and I didn't get it.

[wish-tree]

I'm here. Catching up.

 

Turin flip is surprising.

 

Not going to say I told you so on Zander, but when people tunnel me, they never last long. Heh.

[Askthepizzaguy]

2631 my post-

 

"He was also a goon, but had been making inroads into getting town-read by a lot of people. Except Shad, pretty much. Even I was close to putting him more than half light green, half null, but that's as far as he got because too many null posts."

 

Meant to say Nolder there I'm sure.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Nope, got the context confused.

 

Csarmi got town-read by Nolder.

 

And Zander got town read by a lot of people except Shad. The original post was correct. Thought I saw a mistake.

[wish-tree]

SO EXCITED

 

and scared

 

and nervous

 

I'm getting some job interviews, guys

 

>.<

[Kaylee]

Good luck Wish!

[wish-tree]

I would like everyone (including my villagers, because I want your input), regardless of their confidence in their reads, and regardless of their villager list, to do a thought experiment for me. This can be done at your leisure, when you're burned out from data mining D1.

 

If you needed to get yourself town-read yesterday, and were Zander and Csarmi's partner, what is your battle strategy?

 

Just be generic. Walk me through your process as scum. Put yourself in that person's shoes.

 

You're the Godfather or the Roleblocker, someone you really don't want to lose day one or pretty much ever. Especially now.

 

How would you have behaved yesterday?

 

Not how did you behave. Talking hypothetically.

If I were Godfather or the Roleblocker:

 

I would have switched my read on Penny, started doubting her, just to have a little bit of leeway to mislynch her if it ever came to it. Yesterday, I was the only one with a particularly strong town read on her, and she was a viable wagon. 

 

I would have continued to town read Zander even after his unnatural behavior that Pizza/Shad pointed out, to appear consistent with my reads and for maximum distancing purposes.

 

I would have not focused on Pralaya first, but instead, immediately would have gone for csarmi, in order to gain even more town points as if I were the one who started the wagon. 

 

I would have allowed the Kaylee wagon to continue in order to save csarmi. 

 

I would have tried to get Zander and Pizza to stop fighting and paint their interactions as v/v.

[wish-tree]

Good luck Wish!

Thank you!

[wish-tree]

Also, gonna edit the spoiler formatting of the post I requested for yesterday, heh.

[Askthepizzaguy]

And going through my explanation of this post- (With oooooh pretty colors)

 

This is what I have seen.

 

Just to explain before I reveal my 1/3 finished notes on the game thusfar:

 

Because Csarmi was the most expendable wolf team member, being low-content, kinda trolly, and accidentally partly outed himself with the Kaylee defense, and wasn't making strong inroads into being town-read by anyone (anyone but Nolder teehee) and he was a goon, basically, the best use for him is to be bussed at an opportune moment. And that's what happened. (LDO)

 

However, because of his (relatively) low posing and extremely low actual content or interactions, I've been focusing much more on Zander. (Good idea, imo)

 

He was also a goon, but had been making inroads into getting town-read by a lot of people. Except Shad, pretty much. Even I was close to putting him more than half light green, half null, but that's as far as he got because too many null posts. (When Zander towns, the whole world knows. See: Buttercup the GOAT goat)

 

Still, he has a lot of ability to control the thread and take a leadership role, and because he's all over the place, he can plausibly go after whoever he wants. He's good at generating plausible Zander-like BS. And that's valuable to the wolf team.

 

So he's assuming he's going to live for a while, as is the rest of his wolf team. (Which means we should be able to see who wanted to keep him alive, and for the even more valuable deep wolves or wolf power roles, this means people Zander wanted to keep alive as well...)

 

WITH THAT IN MIND, I examined the following:

 

A) Who Zander talked to

B) Who talked back to Zander

and during those, I noted which of those interactions looked the most clearing (+) or damning (-) for each person.

C) Who he wants more suspicion and votes on.

D) What his leans are.

 

And finally

 

E) Things people said to Zander or about Zander which I feel are alignment indicative.

 

F) And for added bonus fun, since Zander likes to say lolololol, instead of the usual 1 marker for each instance of a thing I saw, I alternated l and o to make more lols.

 

(lololololololololololol)

 

Because I loves me some Zander. This one goes out to you, broheim.

 

 

==========================================

 

Zander
Speaks to Shad- ++++++++++lolololololololololololololololololololololo

 

He town-reads Shad a lot, but Shad does not town-read him back as hard, and eventually leads me straight to Zander around the same time Csarmi was getting pwnt.

Also, their interactions, specifically the way ZANDER talks to SHAD, reek of a wolf trying to persuade a villager of a thing. This is what a wolf will do with an active villager who is more or less universally town-read. Shad on his own looks like a villager, but the interactions with Zander continue to push that same direction.

Speaks to ATPG- lolololololololololololololololololololo

 

I just am a villager, LDO, but he did with me the same thing he did with Shad, mostly trying to get me to follow him onto Wish-tree. And I refused, because I hunt my own wolves and also, because he wasn't reeking of villageriness like the past few games.

Speaks to Cass- +++++lololololololololololol

 

The interactions with Cass were also particularly clearing. I could cite examples in a different post but I'm trying to do this quickly before dinner and without making this post extra-gigantic. The way he talks to Cass rings very much unlike a wolf talking to a fellow wolf.

Speaks to Celeste- +++lolololololololo

 

Other than Wish-Tree, Celeste was on Zander's radar. However, Zander didn't really push Celeste as an option even half as much as he pushed Wish, so naturally I looked here very closely. But the stuff he says to Celeste and vice-versa look pretty darned good. It again reads like a wolf speaking to a villager.

 

Speaks to Laine- +lololololololololo

 

Laine on her own looks pretty excellent, but she begins with Zander looking half dark green, half light green, and then he starts a gradual slide toward null, and it is largely based on their own interactions, as opposed to the specific timing of Shad and myself pushing Zander late round, which is pretty much 90% Shad's doing and 10% my being unable to clear Zander all game. But I wouldn't have pushed there if not for Shad. The specific interactions with Zander, I believe there was at least one post which looked really good. I'd have to cite it if folks are interested, but. I did look here for deep wolfing stuff, because Laine and Zander had each other high up, and Laine wasn't very scum-read by anyone. So I tried to be very thorough here. But Zander looks like he's trying to pocket Laine and get her to listen to him. It looks good, and that plus Laine's own efforts speak well of Laine.

 

Speaks to Wish- lololololololololol

 

Why aren't there more + signs here? Well because Zander is a bit bussy as a wolf, so the entire going at Wish hard could have been fake. Still, I feel the odds are better Wish is a villager. When it comes to the Wish-Zander interactions, the really clearing stuff for Wish comes in the Wish speaking to Zander category. Those posts look amaze. See below.

 

Speaks to Kaylee- lolololololol

 

It's pretty good, again I get the feeling their interactions are genuine. Besides, Csarmi's interactions with Kaylee or speaking about Kaylee look great for Kaylee. I still can't blue her, because her D1 this game was admittedly off. So it's worth looking into if the bottom of the POE turns up all villager.

 

Speaks to Turin- lolololo

 

Well, Turin was a villager who didn't speak much, so this is a good baseline for someone Zander wasn't trying to pocket, or distance from, or realistically get to move around with him. Turin did that on his own.

 

Speaks to Nolder- lolololo

 

He doesn't really talk to Nolder that much, but then again not a lot of people engage in long discussions with Nolder about anything, he was much more closed this game. Nolder kind of off in his own little world doing his own thing, making his own reads. It's possible Nolder is the deep wolf based on this lack of really substantial interaction, however, the Who Would You Shoot test seemed to work in Nolder's favor, and really, the way Nolder reacted to the Csarmi case was pretty good wolfing if it was. It might not have been especially good villaging, but it was not particularly wolfy.

 

Speaks to Csarmi- lolo

 

Just reads as someone Zander doesn't have a meta of buddying up with, and this is a person who didn't really talk to a lot of people and wasn't present in the thread for very long when he was here. See top lines for analysis of how wolves behaved toward Csarmi. We know they were both wolves now.

 

Speaks to Pralaya- l

 

Essentially ignores Pralaya because Pralaya had like 1 post in this entire section of the game, or so. So this is null for analysis.

 

Speaks to Lenlo- ---lololololololol

 

Now this is the interesting stuff, and it's stuff I want to multiquote in a separate post.

 

You'd have to have done the work, but when you look at how Zander speaks to people, the way he speaks to Lenlo is in a very special category.

 

You won't see hard clearing, hard distancing, but you will see an abnormally high number of posts where all they are doing is bantering. Just bantering. They very mildly distance from one another here or there, but also put each other very high on their villager lists.

 

Given how neither wolf that is outed wanted to push here, or establish any kind of serious, real dialogue, and all of the stuff directed at Lenlo was fluff, that feels unnatural.

 

I don't think a wolf interacting with a group of villagers and treating them all pretty much the same- talking, questioning, probing, challenging, would select this one villager and say, you know what? They're a villager and that's good enough for me, and I will sit and banter with them all round.

 

Maybe it happens for a little while, but this is multiple sessions of play over multiple days.

That indicates it is not a random convergence of several days worth of idle chatter, that indicates Zander has a political position he's consciously taking toward Lenlo, which is to not push him or really challenge him, and he's subconsciously treating Lenlo very differently from all the rest of the people in the game who have been largely town-read, and who are posting a lot.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Askthepizzaguy speaks to Zander- lolololololololololololo

 

Because he was here and he was the main focus of my attempts to clear villagers, after Cass, Shad, etc, when I got to Zander's name I got stuck, confused, puzzled. He also spoke to me a lot, trying to persuade me of things, and butter me up.

 

Alanna speaks to Zander- lololololo

 

The interactions look okay here, because of the gradual slide towards less villagery that Zander took on Laine's suspicions list. I still looked for deep wolfing. But really it looks like Zander wants something from Alanna, and Alanna doesn't reciprocate or fulfill his needs. So that looks less like a team.

 

Cass speaks to Zander- +lololololol

 

There were several sharp interactions with Zander, and at least one very solid post where Cass talks to Zander in a way I do not see as a wolf buddy.

 

Nolder speaks to Zander- lolo

 

Nolder pretty much ignores Zander all round, and gives him a few negative points. This can be deep wolfing, admittedly. But I have other counterindicators elsewhere in the thread. He's pretty much all by his lonesome pushing me as the scummiest guy. Turin hops on, because Turin had a rather bad day one. ;)

Lenlo speaks to Zander- lololololol

 

Oh, here we go. Lenlo's reciprocation towards Zander's bantering indicates that this is not a random occurrence either. It's symmetrical for the most part. Lenlo, after moving up a lot of people's leans lists because he was openly slacking and goofing off, continued to do so, for the remainder of the round pretty much.

 

More than any other interaction I looked at, Zander to Lenlo, and Lenlo to Zander, their posts indicated to me that Zander really didn't want Lenlo to be the focus of the round, the center of the discussion, and neither of them wanted to see the other die. And their symmetrical not-pushing, not hard defending, not-nulling one another kind of banter just reeks of two wolves who are in a good position not wanting to lose the other.

 

This will be mutiquoted.

Wish speaks to Zander- +++lololololo

 

Wish pretty much smacks Zander around D1. It's great. And it doesn't feel w/w or for show.

Kaylee speaks to Zander- lolol

 

Kaylee didn't speak to Zander very much during the first 50 pages, her attention seemed to be elsewhere. Zander spoke to her a lot more. Kaylee also never really went along with whatever Zander wanted to do, seemed to be oblivious to Zander being a wolf, and the whole Csarmi thing is separately a good look. I still tinfoiled hard, thinking well, alone, she looks hella wolfy and she admits it. Was Csarmi leaping to her defense? But no, the way things went down, I think Csarmi wasn't hard defending Kaylee, but trying to fuel my mislynch fire and still not be blamed for the aftermath, by calling her a villager.

 

Again, I think if Kaylee was a wolf, Csarmi would have gone, well... it's fairly convincing stuff. But I think X is scummier. Or had something more than the weaksauce explanation why she was a villager that he gave.

Celeste speaks to Zander- +lololo

 

These interactions in particular look great for Celeste. Not hard clearing, but good.

Wants me to vote Wish- lololololololololo

 

So I considered the possibilities of hard bussing. But, a goon hard bussing the godfather or roleblocker? Nay. Not d1 for no raisin.

Wants me to vote Celeste- lololo

 

Considered deep wolfing. But if suspicions picked up on Celeste, the way they had been talking, Zander would have been forced to bus his godfather or roleblocker or whatever. I think that's dumb.

Wants me to vote Turin- lo

 

Mostly because I pushed the case, so he fed me some fuel to try to make it happen, or convince me I was correct, a little bit.

Leans 501
Pizza- Green <----------Me
Lenlo- Green <---------------Deep wolf
Kaylee- Light Green <--------Possible, but there are counterindicators.
Alanna- Light Green <--------Dark green
Cass- Null Green <-----------Blue
Shad- Null Green <------------Lock clear
Nolder- Null Lean town <------Villager I think
Pralaya- Null <------------Unknown, possible wolf
Csarmi- Null <----------Wolf
Turrin- Orange <---------------Villager
Celeste- Orange/Red <------Villager I think
Wish- Mostly Red <-----------Blue

Speaks about Zander: (With colors that represent how it makes me lean on the person making the quote)

79 Cass "Zander and Laine making me wary"

109 Cass "In a nutshell, Zander feeling a little forced..."

117 Cass (Lots of negative reads on Zander, mitigated by "doubt I'm voting you today")

 

233 Lenlo "See, I didnt get the feeling she was calling you scum. Your abit defensive here about it to, which I dont know how I feel about, and thats bad. Focus on being the Zander from previous games or else I may have to lynch you." <-----The end part of that sentence feels out of sync with the rest of his game. It's like forced and temporary sharpness in a sea of low-key banter interactions. I don't buy it.

 

238 Cass  "I like both the observation and the question here from Zander.
I actually liked the entire post except for the 'hmmmmmmm' part of his 'hmmmmmmmm lolololololololol' comment. More importantly I think it's a good, villagery sign that he's spanning out and focusing on more players. One thing I think I picked up on in ZanderDiaboloScum! was a rather persistently, closed tunneling feel. He felt more restrained and fake." <-----Went from wary to good in a short span of time, but very soon puts him closer to null. This movement indicates that her feelings are based on actual feelings she's having about Zander's posts as they happen, as opposed to a political position she must take due to being wolf with him.

 

262 Lenlo "Zander felt abit defensive about Cass and hasnt done much since. That worries me with him." <----But doesn't do jack about it and doesn't push Zander ever.

 

293 Laine: "Zander and I always joke back and forth and pretty much always town read each other early. Doesn't mean I'm not wary of him, because I've seen him play as mafia. We did the same thing as scum mates and nobody thought it was forced lol" "Zander always jokes. Until he finds scum or "finds scum." Then he's SRS BNS." <-----Pretty null, and in context, this reads like something a villager would say due to what Laine was responding to.

 

321 Lenlo "I know you do that Z, but this time when calling it out it felt defensive, rather than offensive. When you call people out for doing scummy things you go at them. Your are taking what feels off and going on the offensive with it. That instance though felt more defensive in nature and was off to me." <---This is not enough to get people to vote for Zander. It's too soft, so it is distancing. "Felt defensive" and "felt off" are so generic, there's virtually zero chance Zander will be wagoned or even voted once for making such a statement about Zander. And surely Lenlo had no intention of doing so himself, so.... distancing.

 

397 Wish "I don't understand how Zander is reading me if he thinks I'm Penny... We're two completely different players." <---Villager

 

429 Nolder "Joke response. Tone is natural. Meta indicates this may be unusual as Xander often engages in hypotheticals with other players to determine alignment. -1.5" <----This is possible distancing, but who would believe it? It makes sense to Nolder, and zero other people. So it lacks a wolfy motive.

 

449 Celeste "Well than excuse you for not seeing that I don't have the average tells of a townie because y'all are too focused on average tells. I'm still looking and not certain with reads except for the one's on Cass and Wish. The whole fact that y'all are pushing into a defensive corner doesn't help because it blocks the scum hunting. If you guys are so adamant that I'm not a townie than congrats you have your first mislynch. I'm done defending this little issue with the timing of my unvote." <----The frustration feels real;, the sharpness, and the fact that it is prompted by plenty of Zander's own behavior makes this response more genuine and less politically motivated.

 

651 Laine "Additionally, what do I gain by trying to get you on my side? I could just as easily top town read Zander or Pizza and buddy them, or even a different player who I think will have a lot of sway with the town. But why, if were going under the assumption that I'm doing this to gain your favor, would I choose you?" (@ Lenlo)

Laine's response here feels exactly like a villager's reaction, and the fact that Laine is not reciprocating Zander's easy villager read of her is a good look.

 

669 Me "Zander- Are you trying to pocket me?" <----LOL

 

673 Me "I want a solid post from Zander that pushes me irrevocably in that direction. Like, I completely nailed one two games ago, and made the game much easier to read. He got ate in fact." <---My problem was that he had made such posts in both other games.

 

682 about 262 Cass "Complete mind-melding with Lenlo on this post. @ZANDER THIS DOESN'T MEAN I THINK YOU'RE SCUM. It means I'm still trying to figure your alignment out." "Zander. The more I read of you, the more it's like looking into a mirror of my mind \m/ . Your 'pinged gut feel' is wrong. I'm legit me here, I'll figure you out!" <----The way Cass is shouting at Zander here feels realistic to me, for her anyway.

 

762 Wish "I'm also wondering why Zander isn't replying to my isos." <---This is good.

 

773 Cass "Move Zander closer to null and put Pizza null-town and this is a good list IMO. Zander's null because he's active and probing and enthusiastic (good) but may be extra tinfoily/tunnellish and seems to give few detailed opinions beyond being suspicious. Still watching this space." <----Cass not town-reading Zander is a good look.

 

790 Wish "I thought that's what I did..... I thought you wanted me to go back and iso things in order to explain things. what?"

Read that post for the context. Really doesn't feel w/w

 

807 Cass "YW :) But I'm more interested in you expressing what it was you actually found... Spill?" <----Great push on Zander, doesn't feel like w/w faked game solving.

 

837 Cass "I got that bit, I want you to examine it and your gut read and give examples of where you feel he's stretching/wishy-washy. Your 'reasons' are so vague they're null to scum refusing to commit. Work with me!" <----Excellent.


Other thoughts:
Cass unlikely to be wolf with Zander
Shad unlikely to be wolf with Zander
Laine unlikely to be wolf with Zander
Wish unlikely to be wolf with Zander
Shad unlikely to be wolf with Zander <-----This is me re-arranging the list and not deleting when I copy and paste.
I'm not a wolf with Zander
Kaylee not blue yet, but looks ok
Nolder not blue yet, but looks ok
Celeste looking better as of pg 50
 

 

Conclusion: Not conclusive, but Lenlo will always have to be resolved mechanically at this point and he looks the worst. So let's lynch him.

 

 

And now what should be done is me multiquoting Zander talking to Lenlo, and Lenlo talking to Zander.

 

But, why wait for me to do it?

 

You guys can look yourselves while I'm trying to assemble it. I have dinner coming up soon and I've already done tons of work today.

 

But look for yourselves, tell me what you see.