[Advanced] Nightmare Before Christmas - Town Wins!

[Shad_]

 

 

 

Quick thought:

 

Cop might want to peek Lenlo tonight.  Nolder's claim is verifiable, so there is no need to peek him and the game is already over if he's scum, it's just a matter of letting the mechanics of the situation play out.

 

If Nolder's town, that will be verified tomorrow by the doc, so we could lynch BFG and Thane and not have to worry about him.

 

I feel like Lenlo has serial killer equity.

 

Again, I haven't fully thought this through yet, but I wanted to get that out in the meantime.

 

Wrong

 

cop need to view either shad or thane

 

lenlo now has no SK equity as he is now locked into an action if we get 2 kills and one isnt bfg he is in trouble.

 

If we don't have a second person claim 1x vig, then we would appear to have an unaccounted-for bullet.  What do you make of that.

 

On peeks though: A peek on me could be useful if you can all agree that there is no world in which I am ever on AJ's team in this game and thus no world in which I'm a Godfather.  I probably really do have some SK equity on account of D1 EoD.  I will accept a peek if town agrees to not pull some stupid tinfoil afterwards.

 

I need to further recalibrate with Thane's claim in mind.  I think the result is that Nolder and NotBob are lock clear from being mafia, but I still haven't had enough time without baby-distraction to piece it together.

 

 

red There has been no second shot. Only one person has died each night. So tell me where the magic bullet u are talking about is.

 

blue  not agreed

 

 

Red - Nolder claimed to track AJ shooting NotBob.  Thane claimed to have doc protected NotBob.  Pizza still died.  Unless Nolder and Thane are both scum recklessly gambling that there is no real tracker or doc in this game, we can safely assume that AJ really did shoot NotBob.  Therefore, Pizza ate an extra bullet.  Now, Lenlo has claimed a 1x vig.  Either Lenlo is lying and therefor not town, or there are two extra bullets in this game.  Those are the only options.

 

Blue - Are you seriously suggesting that AJ and I could be scum mates?  If not, what are you suggesting?

[Lenlo]

Tell me again why Nolder can't be lieing about being a tracker?

 

I'll find out tonight, cause I'm viewing him, but please explain.

[Shad_]

Why does there have to be an SK? There was no kill N1. What's the odds of the scum having a vig?

 

Could have been a doc save.  Could have been a bpv save.  Could have been a holster because SK doesn't want to make it too obvious that there's a SK.  I don't know.  But there are either two non-NK shots in this game or you lied about your 1x vig, because we have mechanically proven that two shots were fired on N2.

[Lenlo]

Well I'm not lieing I have one shor and I'm shooting BFG tonight.

[Shad_]

Tell me again why Nolder can't be lieing about being a tracker?

 

I'll find out tonight, cause I'm viewing him, but please explain.

Assuming there is either 1 scum left or a serial killer (is that a safe assumption? In a 12 player game? I would think so but my experience is lacking) Thane is either scum or really protected NotBob. Scum!Nolder would have absolutely no idea that this occurred if he is the one who shot Pizza, unless he is 1) a scum tracker who tracked me on N1 and Thane on N2, or 2) scum with a 1x vig who took a risky guess at my N1 actions when he could have safely lied and said he'd tracked Zander or Pizza instead.

 

I think both of those are unlikely scenarios and, by way of mechanics, Nolder is probably town.

If that doesn't make sense to you ask me specifically what part is confusing, because it seems clear to me.

[Lenlo]

Did you claim a role Shad? Cause if I remember he said you visited no one, right? That's not that big a gamble to me.

 

Also does there being a third scum throw any wrench into that? So if BFG flips scum then what?

[Shad_]

Did you claim a role Shad? Cause if I remember he said you visited no one, right? That's not that big a gamble to me.

 

Also does there being a third scum throw any wrench into that? So if BFG flips scum then what?

If BFG flips scum I assume that the game will end.

 

I think it's a bit of a gamble for scum to assume I'm not a PR when I never claimed VT.

[Lenlo]

Eh. Scum was in a pretty precarious position. Doesn't seem all that risky imo.

 

Guess we will find out in the morning.

[Shad_]

Eh. Scum was in a pretty precarious position. Doesn't seem all that risky imo.

 

Guess we will find out in the morning.

In addition to being "risky", it would require scum to have a 1x vig.

[dicetosser1]

scum occasionally get a 1 shot vig too you know.

 

 

and what im suggesting is ure sketching me out.

[Lenlo]

As I said, let's find out what happens in the morning ya?

[Shad_]

scum occasionally get a 1 shot vig too you know.

 

 

and what im suggesting is ure sketching me out.

Red - Say we mislynch D1 and Lenlo shoots town N1.  It is now lylo unless someone scores a doc save, under these circumstances.

 

Blue - You have to give me a reason mate.  You have to look at the big picture.  I'm fine with being peeked.  The result will be Town.  Unless Godfather Serial Killers exist, that will leave me lock clear.  I'm sorry if you don't like people telling you they're clear.  I recognize that can seem funny.  But I have way too much respect for AJ to treat him the way I did in this game if we were scum mates.  Like seriously, it would probably be one of the biggest dick moves in DM history.

[Shad_]

Blue - You have to give me a reason mate.  You have to look at the big picture.  I'm fine with being peeked.  The result will be Town.  Unless Godfather Serial Killers exist, that will leave me lock clear.  I'm sorry if you don't like people telling you they're clear.  I recognize that can seem funny.  But I have way too much respect for AJ to treat him the way I did in this game if we were scum mates.  Like seriously, it would probably be one of the biggest dick moves in DM history.

Add to that--even if you think I am that much of a jerk, AJ would never agree to it.

[Shad_]

Peek the guy who says he has a gun in a game where we have a kill unaccounted for and half the scum team conceded.  IMO.

[Shad_]

I think Thane's pretty lock town.  Claims doc, no counter claim.  Small game, at least 1 vig shot confirmed.  Chances of there not being a doc and scum!Thane gambling on that probability after his team's shot on NotBob fails to go through?  Uh no.  Thane town unless someone wants to counterclaim doc.

[Lenlo]

Im fine with being peeked. I want town to win.

[Shad_]

Think there's anything to Dice getting kind of goofy ever since AJ claimed scum?

[Shad_]

I don't believe Dice is scum, fwiw.  Just asking.

[Lenlo]

Not really no.

[Shad_]

Dear Vig  I would ask you not kill AJ tonight.  shoot ure best guess besides him and do not give any clues who you will shoot

 

Posts this, Pizza mysteriously dies, no one claims it, Dice suddenly doesn't like me using mechanics to clear people.  /shrug

[Shad_]

I don't think Dice or Lenlo are scum.  I'm just humoring SK potential atm.  Hopefully the game ends when you plug BFG.

[Shad_]

Then again, do either of you play really strong town games that could draw a night kill if you're trying to survive to end game?  Meh.  Never dealt with a SK before.  Don't know that I'm dealing with one now.

[dicetosser1]

shad im not goofy.

 

yiou are bouncing all over the place. and its making me nervous

 

 

 

as for what u just quoted   it was the better plan. You shoot AJ we have to guess at the remaining scum depending on results. So shoot ure best guess and leave the certain one for lynch. theres also a slim chance AJ slips before lynch and outs someone.

 

 

you just seem to not like the fact that i wont lock you in as town

[dicetosser1]

ive never been an SK and i doubt i could win as one. I either get read scummy and lynched or i am obvious town and usually end up dead

[Shad_]

ive never been an SK and i doubt i could win as one. I either get read scummy and lynched or i am obvious town and usually end up dead

 

 

I can probably give you this.

 

I'm all over the place because we have mechanical knowledge and I want to put it to work as best I can now in the off chance I die tonight.

 

And I legit really am bothered that you won't lock me in as non-scum.  Doesn't have to be town.