Diablo the mafia game!

[Yates]

The football analogy was Yates's attempt to get me to say that I think he's better than Zander

To be fair this isn't 100% accurate either. I wasn't really asking him who is better. I was really asking him who he would rather have on his team. I know it sounds a lot like the same thing but it isn't.

 

In a world where Clov is Town and has to choose between lynching Town Yates and Town Zander? I had assumed he would lynch Town Zander. But he SAID he'd lynch Town Yates to save Town Zander. So this makes me think he chose Town Yates BECAUSE? He is NOT Town Clov.

[BFG]

 

Zander/Besie, where are you at in your reads right now?

 

 

was gonna post one after Besie gets caught up to see what she thinks as well.  but my own before re read

 

 

Shad

Thane

Clov

 

 

Tab

BFG

 

Tress

 

Pral

Not Bob

 

Dice

Yates

 

Ok, why Yates and Dice?

[BFG]

 

I know your reads, I want to know why?

You need me to restate why I know Bender is scum? I'm pretty sure I have a summary post from Day 1 but I can tack on a bunch of stuff from today including his obvious SHC "slip" that Clov is inexplicably claiming is more likely to come from Town and the fact Zander totally forgot that he had to drop his fake push on me at the end of the day yesterday to get Lenlo lynched.

 

Again; ask Zander why I'm scum. The more people that do it the better.

 

Is your Clov read associated then, or is there something else as well?

[Clovdyx]

 

I think Yates will be happy to spot check me if I'm wrong.

That's the most minor point, tbh. It was really just a fact check.

 

Okay. So both you and I know that as cop I pretty much never check Bender N1 because I can read Zander. But let's say for the sake of argument that I went full noob and dug in my heels and checked him anyway and he cam back red. That's pretty much how confident I am in his scum flip.

 

So now let's look at how you have treated Bessie and Zander. From my perspective; do you see why I would be CRAZY suspicious of you? And then you include NB in your scum poe when he was willing to "just wing it" yesterday to vote for "scum" Bender. We both know that's not what a bus looks like. Not when the votes were that close.

 

So let's say I finally put my full case out there and Bender gets lynched and flips scum and I get killed tonight. Why should Town ever leave you alive tomorrow? Because I promise you that if anyone else is killed and you and I are both alive? I'm calling for a thunderdome.

 

 

Sorry, I wasn't trying to insinuate that was your whole reasoning for your reads.  I was going to let you handle that.  I was just trying to address the football analogy, since she can probably recheck the thread to see what you've said, but nothing about the NFL is going to make sense to her.  The woman once told me "Go Giants?", for Flying Spaghetti Monster's sake.

 

I don't know where the middle is coming from.  I don't think I've ever said you - or anybody else - is WRONG to accuse/suspect/question me.  There's a very understandable thought process behind "If Bender's scum, Clov is likely scum."  There's not a very understandable thought process of "I'm going to put all my effort into making this guy look bad before I even know if the person I'm linking him to is mafia."  Well, not a very good one, anyways.  Because yeah, you can say you're 'red check confident' on it...and tbf maybe you are.  That doesn't mean anything until it's on the board.  I've felt incredibly confident and been wrong before.  I literally had to set my phone down in BFG's game after IR flipped town, because I would have snapped it in half if I didn't.  

 

So you lynch Zander today, and he flips scum.  Okay.  Assuming I'm not peeked, and we're still both alive (I would be highly surprised if mafia is ballsy enough to shoot me with Zander being confirmed scum, but I've seen worse plays), make your case.  I get that.  But don't waste my time today with it, because I know you are wrong about me, so I really don't put much stock in your confidence right now.  

 

You want me to help you lynch Zander, or anybody else, try talking to me in a way that doesn't make me think you have your head shoved up Joe Flacco's torn ACL.

[Yates]

And if you disagree with me, it's a good thing you're leaving, because you clearly don't understand how the hell to play this game.

I disagree with you. We aren't talking about random people or generalities. We are talking about a specific person and how they might play their hand. But you know this. And somehow you think your strawman is more real than reality.

[Clovdyx]

 

The football analogy was Yates's attempt to get me to say that I think he's better than Zander

To be fair this isn't 100% accurate either. I wasn't really asking him who is better. I was really asking him who he would rather have on his team. I know it sounds a lot like the same thing but it isn't.

 

In a world where Clov is Town and has to choose between lynching Town Yates and Town Zander? I had assumed he would lynch Town Zander. But he SAID he'd lynch Town Yates to save Town Zander. So this makes me think he chose Town Yates BECAUSE? He is NOT Town Clov.

 

 

And yet you still haven't addressed my explanation.  

[Clovdyx]

 

And if you disagree with me, it's a good thing you're leaving, because you clearly don't understand how the hell to play this game.

I disagree with you. We aren't talking about random people or generalities. We are talking about a specific person and how they might play their hand. But you know this. And somehow you think your strawman is more real than reality.

 

 

If we're not talking about generalities, it's not a SLIP.  He didn't OUT himself by saying it, unless I would be outed for it.  Or you would be outed.

 

For the hundredth time, if you want to make a point of, "I don't think Town!Zander comes to this conclusion because........" or "I think this point is more likely to come from him as mafia, because....", then make the argument.  Don't try to frame it like he's confirmed mafia for it like he broke rule 36B of the townie handbook.

[Clovdyx]

BFG, if you're still around, I need a very direct answer to a very specific question.

 

 

Are you talking about the thing where I said I'm not getting AJ lynched for it, even if I'm right?

[BFG]

 

I think Yates will be happy to spot check me if I'm wrong.

That's the most minor point, tbh. It was really just a fact check.

 

Okay. So both you and I know that as cop I pretty much never check Bender N1 because I can read Zander. But let's say for the sake of argument that I went full noob and dug in my heels and checked him anyway and he cam back red. That's pretty much how confident I am in his scum flip.

 

So now let's look at how you have treated Bessie and Zander. From my perspective; do you see why I would be CRAZY suspicious of you? And then you include NB in your scum poe when he was willing to "just wing it" yesterday to vote for "scum" Bender. We both know that's not what a bus looks like. Not when the votes were that close.

 

So let's say I finally put my full case out there and Bender gets lynched and flips scum and I get killed tonight. Why should Town ever leave you alive tomorrow? Because I promise you that if anyone else is killed and you and I are both alive? I'm calling for a thunderdome.

 

Ok got it, probably

 

Fwiw I had NB as a slight plus for his vote yesterday, but I don't have a lot of experience actually playing with him

 

Can you explain the difference between town and mafia Zander for me? AF is literally the only game we've been t-t in

[Yates]

Is your Clov read associated then, or is there something else as well?

Associative tell, to be sure. Though there are holes in his logic and things that he is pushing that just ring as superficial and fake.

 

I kind of forgot about the rest of my football analogy. But the rest of it had to do with what he thought of me as a player for the record because early in day one he was acting like I was the kind of person that would make really dumb pushes and plays. In another reference that you wouldn't get, he was treating me more like Drew Stanton than Drew Brees.

[Yates]

EBWOP: specifically the "role fish" garbage and then that weak "he looks like he is dodging" nonsense where he disproves himself in the quotes he pulls up with everything that wasn't bold. It was like he was really digging deep to try to undermine my push on Bender.

[Yates]

Can you explain the difference between town and mafia Zander for me? AF is literally the only game we've been t-t in

Zander will literally change his scum game based on who he is scumming with. It's as simple as that. But certain things will never come from Town Zander. And I highlighted those things in my arguments yesterday that I don't have time to rehash at 3:30 in the morning.

[BFG]

BFG, if you're still around, I need a very direct answer to a very specific question.

 

 

Are you talking about the thing where I said I'm not getting AJ lynched for it, even if I'm right?

Yes, and I'm not bothered about what it is, more the approach felt similar to the way you 'pushed' me for small things in HP, it felt designed to keep him unsure about you if that makes sense?

 

There was something that bothered me about AJ at that point, but I was more concerned that you didn't point it out (unless it's the same thing you don't want to talk about - lol?)

[Yates]

(unless it's the same thing you don't want to talk about - lol?)

I'll save you the trouble. This is a farce.

[Yates]

^^And another part of why I'm convinced he's scum #2.

[BFG]

 

Can you explain the difference between town and mafia Zander for me? AF is literally the only game we've been t-t in

Zander will literally change his scum game based on who he is scumming with. It's as simple as that. But certain things will never come from Town Zander. And I highlighted those things in my arguments yesterday that I don't have time to rehash at 3:30 in the morning.

 

Sure and thanks. This is probably closest to my thoughts on mafia! Zander, but I have no relevant town experience with him as its hard to get meta from the game he was Hallia in.

 

I only got a few pages through you/Zander before deadline and have only skimmed a fair bit since. It's likely to be this evening before I have time to sit through and rrad now, bit it will be my priority once I do.

[BFG]

 

Is your Clov read associated then, or is there something else as well?

Associative tell, to be sure. Though there are holes in his logic and things that he is pushing that just ring as superficial and fake.

 

I kind of forgot about the rest of my football analogy. But the rest of it had to do with what he thought of me as a player for the record because early in day one he was acting like I was the kind of person that would make really dumb pushes and plays. In another reference that you wouldn't get, he was treating me more like Drew Stanton than Drew Brees.

 

Have you pointed out anything other than his read on Besie/Zander? (sorry if I've missed it)

[Yates]

For the hundredth time, if you want to make a point of, "I don't think Town!Zander comes to this conclusion because........" or "I think this point is more likely to come from him as mafia, because....", then make the argument.  Don't try to frame it like he's confirmed mafia for it like he broke rule 36B of the townie handbook.

For the 100th time, Zander knows exactly what SHC is. For the sake of your argument? I'll put it to you like this:

 

I don't think Town!Zander forgets the SHC peek because Town!Zander prides himself on catching wolves and Town!Zander can't catch wolves if he is including SHC people in his poe.

 

Conversely, Scum!Zander forgot that he had to drop his fake push on me yesterday when Scum!Zander included me at the bottom of his POE today because Scum!Zander is more interested in mislynching Townies than busing wolves in this game.

[Yates]

Have you pointed out anything other than his read on Besie/Zander? (sorry if I've missed it)

Yeah. I mean, that was the whole point of the QB thing. You can also check my ISO towards the end of day yesterday and search for "you don't believe that" because I said something to Clov along the lines of "I don't believe you believe that about me."

[BFG]

 

Have you pointed out anything other than his read on Besie/Zander? (sorry if I've missed it)

Yeah. I mean, that was the whole point of the QB thing. You can also check my ISO towards the end of day yesterday and search for "you don't believe that" because I said something to Clov along the lines of "I don't believe you believe that about me."

 

Ok

[Clovdyx]

Okay, before we get started, I need to establish something: hardclaim vanilla town.  

 

Wait...what am I doing?  Did I just deliberately blow cover?  For no reason?

 

Yes, I did.  Because it's impossible to give this explanation and NOT tip things - which we'll come back to.  But first, a look at the history of AJ in these 13 player cop games.

 

 

 

Ages of Legends - a BFG production.  Starring, Clovdyx as town's hero.

 

 

I'm gonna preach about not giving early peeks to make them more accurate and then fake peek a wolf towards EOD

 

 

Post #18.

 

 

 

Funny.  I prefer early peeks since that way everyone knows they're fake rather than reads if you flip vanilla, and they're less easy for scum to ignore as consensus reads rather than peeks.  I'm curious why you think waiting until a "peek" is more easily dismissable as a read (and therefore less cover) is useful

The point of leaving peeks in thread are for 1) to allow the Seer to reveal their results and 2) so VTs can provide "cover" for the real Seer by making the wolves think it is actually them.

You don't have Seer equity as a villa if you aren't leaving good peeks. While the chances of randomly picking a wolf as your fake peek on D1 are slim, I would still rather make an educated guess later in that position. This doesn't have to be an obvious consensus read because then, yes, it's obviously fake.

In short - do you, dude. I am for the concept of leaving peeks on thread both for cover and to know in the event the Seer dies, but I'm not interested in discussing the strategy of it. What I say doesn't make people agree or follow it, it's just my preference. You don't need to worry about my peeks until I'm dead unless you're a wolf imo.

 

 

Post #111

 

 

 

I could get behind what Calder is selling if he would just spell you're correctly.

That said, interesting non-reactions to my Thane vote. Nobody has a comment on that?

 

Thane was my peek, he's inno.

 

Wanna tell me why you voted him now? Also what reactions did you expect when you just quoted him and voted without any commentary?

 

 

Post #436.  Let me say that again.  Four hundred and thirty six.

 

 

 

 

Vanilla town.

 

House of Cards.  A Yates production.  Starring Clovdyx as "How did he scumread 2/3 of the team before they even posted?" (for the record it's because I'm typically pretty good at finding townies, but that doesn't factor into this post at all, I'm just trying to stroke my own ego)

 

 

 

 

 

I'm gonna say that I peeked myself.

But that's more so because I want to be written off completely as a seer candidate by the wolves in the event I'm actually the seer.

 

 

Post #49.

 

 

My peek hasn't checked in yet.

I think we're better served following Tom the Tom's advice and waiting towards EOD to reveal. Players unfamiliar with seer cover may have troubles keeping that consistency through out the Day that wolves can see and cross them out as legit peeks. The less time there is for that, the better.

Think before you claim.

 

 

Post #I actually forgot to look when I grabbed it.

 

 

For the sake of providing better fake peeks its probably in everyone's interest to hold off until they can better gage the roster.

That's my 2c anyway

 

 

Post #86

 

 

 

Then can you explain why you think I'm mafia from identifying somebody who I am very good at reading (Nyn) - by her own admission - not playing to her typical town game at first, and then showing a very reasonable progression as she got more involved?

 

Something you seemed to completely let off in voting me.

 

Clov very likely to be a villager here.

 

#BetterThanYou

 

 

For the sake of providing better fake peeks its probably in everyone's interest to hold off until they can better gage the roster.

That's my 2c anyway

 

I agree with this.  Villapeeking a wolf is not cool.

 

It's not really about the villas peeking a wolf. Or, I should say that's not the whole of it. Seer cover is more or less a foreign entity here at DM and what I didn't want was people throwing out useless peeks for the sake of appearing 'random' when the peek could very well have not been random at all. Also - since it's a new thing here I doubt most players are going to keep that in the forefront of their mind as they play along. They may accidently drop cover without thinking about it because they aren't used to having to hold to that front. Get what I'm saying?

 

 

 

Something bugs me a bit about AJ taking on the role of the voice of reason regarding seer cover. Could be nothing, could be something. As always, keeping an eye on him.

This may have something to do with my mild scum read on Darthe.

 

Don't like this.  Feels like a bit of a dodge.  At this point in the game, why should a mild scum read have any influence on a mechanical/strategy discussion?

 

Not really a dodge. I said I would explain later but Nyn's comment correlated with my take on Darthe at the time.

 

 

Clov came in and made a joke about the scum team's identity, naming three players that haven't posted yet. You asked him if that was a soulread and then asked if it was a aussie theme. The whole post sounded fake to me and I did not care for it.

 

Darthe's opinion of how you usually play means squat to me. Other than mentoring you in a game, I don't think we've played together before so my focus is on your play in THIS game. And OMGUS FoSing me for allegedly sheeping Darthe (of all people! lol) is not making you look any better in my eyes. I also find it interesting that I'm getting FoSed but Darthe isn't even though, under your consideration, your content so far doesn't warrant it.

 

 

Any other thoughts you have to share?

 

Like this post.

 

lol

 

+5

 

@AJ youscumming on me?

 

Not this time.

 

 

Post #363.

 

 

My peek was Verb btw.

 

 

 

 

Flying V

 

 

 

 

 

Post #514.

 

 

 

 

Vanilla town.

 

 

 

 

BFG is a villager btw

 

 

Post #120

 

 

 

Alignment unknown.  Role unknown.

 

 

 

Now, I realize people change behaviors, but they usually don't change thought processes.  AJ has demonstrated in the past that he isn't the kind of player to just throw a peek out at the beginning of the game, randomly, and hope you're right.  At least, he doesn't do it with a FAKE PEEK.  I have never played a game with AJ where he was the cop, so I don't know what his meta THERE is; I just knew he wasn't playing to his VT meta.

 

So now, let's look at MY post.

 

 

 

I don't hate this response but I'm also not encouraged by it either.  So any alignment reads either way atp Clov? 

 

 

Beyond what I said about your hydra and Dice earlier, not really.  I have a very minor - and stupid - reason to be suspicious of AJ that I'm just not going to address today (if my suspicions are wrong, it's going to screw us over; if I'm right, I'm not getting him lynched over it anyways).  

 

Mixed feelings about Lenlo.  I think you're right that he's working towards solving, and that's obviously a good thing, but I feel almost every point he's making is refuted by just examining the thread and using basic logic that I have a hard time considering it genuine.

 

 

I'm not the cop, so I couldn't rule out AJ actually being the cop.  However, I couldn't formulate this argument without revealing he COULD be the cop.  The minute you suggest somebody is - or even could be the cop - you reveal that you aren't (this is why posts by Tab and Bender gave me an aneurysm this morning).  So that's the first way I would have been screwing town over by addressing it.  The second is, like I said....if I'm wrong, I possibly OUT THE COP.  On day one.  If the cop survives a few days, town pretty much is guaranteed to win.  Get the cop killed early, and they're screwed.

 

So why was I suspicious?  Well, I obviously didn't think he was a vanilla townie.  He wasn't playing remotely similar to how he's established he thinks as VT (and I could probably assume he would feel the same way as the cop, but I can't be positive).  So by ruling out VT, there were four roles left for him.  That gave him a 25% chance to be the cop and an impressive 75% chance to be scum.

 

So maybe I should have pushed that at the time...

 

except it wouldn't go anywhere.  Nobody in this game would have followed me on that - and rightfully so.  This is the kind of tinfoilish garbage reasons for suspecting people that costs people games.

 

 

As for why I said wait til day 3, I figured that gave scum two chances to NK the REAL cop, at which point I could safely reveal the theory and not harm my cover OR the actual cop would claim and I wouldn't need to give cover anyways.  The alternative was I'd be dead, and once people saw the flip, they would have stopped caring.

 

 

So congratulations to Zander, Shad, Yates, and BFG.  Your inability to wait another phase when I told you I knew what the hell I was doing has now put town in at least a marginally worse position by destroying yet ANOTHER player's cover.  The good news is, BFG is almost certainly town beyond just being SHC, and Yates-Zander PROBABLY arne't teammates, so I can find relief in the thought that at least two  (and possibly up to four) townies drove me to do this.

[Clovdyx]

There you go, guys.  Have at it.

[Clovdyx]

But no, I didn't actually have anything I had been holding back for ????Reasons#YOLODOLOdriedgrapes.  I was just trying to make AJ look worse and thought mentioning something that I found scummy - even thought it was insignificant and dumb by my own admission - would be enough to get people to tinfoil on him long enough for my scumteam to submit a night kill on him.

[BFG]

Okay, before we get started, I need to establish something: hardclaim vanilla town.  

 

Wait...what am I doing?  Did I just deliberately blow cover?  For no reason?

 

Yes, I did.  Because it's impossible to give this explanation and NOT tip things - which we'll come back to.  But first, a look at the history of AJ in these 13 player cop games.

 

 

 

Ages of Legends - a BFG production.  Starring, Clovdyx as town's hero.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'm gonna preach about not giving early peeks to make them more accurate and then fake peek a wolf towards EOD

 

Post #18.

 

 

 

 

Funny.  I prefer early peeks since that way everyone knows they're fake rather than reads if you flip vanilla, and they're less easy for scum to ignore as consensus reads rather than peeks.  I'm curious why you think waiting until a "peek" is more easily dismissable as a read (and therefore less cover) is useful

The point of leaving peeks in thread are for 1) to allow the Seer to reveal their results and 2) so VTs can provide "cover" for the real Seer by making the wolves think it is actually them.

 

You don't have Seer equity as a villa if you aren't leaving good peeks. While the chances of randomly picking a wolf as your fake peek on D1 are slim, I would still rather make an educated guess later in that position. This doesn't have to be an obvious consensus read because then, yes, it's obviously fake.

 

In short - do you, dude. I am for the concept of leaving peeks on thread both for cover and to know in the event the Seer dies, but I'm not interested in discussing the strategy of it. What I say doesn't make people agree or follow it, it's just my preference. You don't need to worry about my peeks until I'm dead unless you're a wolf imo.

 

 

Post #111

 

 

 

 

I could get behind what Calder is selling if he would just spell you're correctly.

 

That said, interesting non-reactions to my Thane vote. Nobody has a comment on that?

 

Thane was my peek, he's inno.

 

Wanna tell me why you voted him now? Also what reactions did you expect when you just quoted him and voted without any commentary?

 

 

Post #436.  Let me say that again.  Four hundred and thirty six.

 

 

 

 

Vanilla town.

 

House of Cards.  A Yates production.  Starring Clovdyx as "How did he scumread 2/3 of the team before they even posted?" (for the record it's because I'm typically pretty good at finding townies, but that doesn't factor into this post at all, I'm just trying to stroke my own ego)

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'm gonna say that I peeked myself.

 

But that's more so because I want to be written off completely as a seer candidate by the wolves in the event I'm actually the seer.

 

Post #49.

 

 

 

My peek hasn't checked in yet.

 

I think we're better served following Tom the Tom's advice and waiting towards EOD to reveal. Players unfamiliar with seer cover may have troubles keeping that consistency through out the Day that wolves can see and cross them out as legit peeks. The less time there is for that, the better.

 

Think before you claim.

 

Post #I actually forgot to look when I grabbed it.

 

 

 

For the sake of providing better fake peeks its probably in everyone's interest to hold off until they can better gage the roster.

 

That's my 2c anyway

 

Post #86

 

 

 

 

Then can you explain why you think I'm mafia from identifying somebody who I am very good at reading (Nyn) - by her own admission - not playing to her typical town game at first, and then showing a very reasonable progression as she got more involved?

 

Something you seemed to completely let off in voting me.

 

Clov very likely to be a villager here.

 

#BetterThanYou

 

 

For the sake of providing better fake peeks its probably in everyone's interest to hold off until they can better gage the roster.

 

That's my 2c anyway

 

I agree with this.  Villapeeking a wolf is not cool.

 

 

It's not really about the villas peeking a wolf. Or, I should say that's not the whole of it. Seer cover is more or less a foreign entity here at DM and what I didn't want was people throwing out useless peeks for the sake of appearing 'random' when the peek could very well have not been random at all. Also - since it's a new thing here I doubt most players are going to keep that in the forefront of their mind as they play along. They may accidently drop cover without thinking about it because they aren't used to having to hold to that front. Get what I'm saying?

 

 

 

Something bugs me a bit about AJ taking on the role of the voice of reason regarding seer cover. Could be nothing, could be something. As always, keeping an eye on him.

This may have something to do with my mild scum read on Darthe.

 

 

Don't like this.  Feels like a bit of a dodge.  At this point in the game, why should a mild scum read have any influence on a mechanical/strategy discussion?

 

 

Not really a dodge. I said I would explain later but Nyn's comment correlated with my take on Darthe at the time.

 

 

Clov came in and made a joke about the scum team's identity, naming three players that haven't posted yet. You asked him if that was a soulread and then asked if it was a aussie theme. The whole post sounded fake to me and I did not care for it.

 

Darthe's opinion of how you usually play means squat to me. Other than mentoring you in a game, I don't think we've played together before so my focus is on your play in THIS game. And OMGUS FoSing me for allegedly sheeping Darthe (of all people! lol) is not making you look any better in my eyes. I also find it interesting that I'm getting FoSed but Darthe isn't even though, under your consideration, your content so far doesn't warrant it.

 

 

Any other thoughts you have to share?

 

Like this post.

 

 

lol

 

+5

 

@AJ youscumming on me?

 

Not this time.

 

 

Post #363.

 

 

 

My peek was Verb btw.

 

 

 

 

Flying V

 

 

 

 

Post #514.

 

 

 

 

Vanilla town.

 

 

 

 

 

BFG is a villager btw

 

Post #120

 

 

 

Alignment unknown.  Role unknown.

 

 

 

Now, I realize people change behaviors, but they usually don't change thought processes.  AJ has demonstrated in the past that he isn't the kind of player to just throw a peek out at the beginning of the game, randomly, and hope you're right.  At least, he doesn't do it with a FAKE PEEK.  I have never played a game with AJ where he was the cop, so I don't know what his meta THERE is; I just knew he wasn't playing to his VT meta.

 

So now, let's look at MY post.

 

 

 

 

I don't hate this response but I'm also not encouraged by it either.  So any alignment reads either way atp Clov?

 

Beyond what I said about your hydra and Dice earlier, not really.  I have a very minor - and stupid - reason to be suspicious of AJ that I'm just not going to address today (if my suspicions are wrong, it's going to screw us over; if I'm right, I'm not getting him lynched over it anyways).  

 

Mixed feelings about Lenlo.  I think you're right that he's working towards solving, and that's obviously a good thing, but I feel almost every point he's making is refuted by just examining the thread and using basic logic that I have a hard time considering it genuine.

 

 

I'm not the cop, so I couldn't rule out AJ actually being the cop.  However, I couldn't formulate this argument without revealing he COULD be the cop.  The minute you suggest somebody is - or even could be the cop - you reveal that you aren't (this is why posts by Tab and Bender gave me an aneurysm this morning).  So that's the first way I would have been screwing town over by addressing it.  The second is, like I said....if I'm wrong, I possibly OUT THE COP.  On day one.  If the cop survives a few days, town pretty much is guaranteed to win.  Get the cop killed early, and they're screwed.

 

So why was I suspicious?  Well, I obviously didn't think he was a vanilla townie.  He wasn't playing remotely similar to how he's established he thinks as VT (and I could probably assume he would feel the same way as the cop, but I can't be positive).  So by ruling out VT, there were four roles left for him.  That gave him a 25% chance to be the cop and an impressive 75% chance to be scum.

 

So maybe I should have pushed that at the time...

 

except it wouldn't go anywhere.  Nobody in this game would have followed me on that - and rightfully so.  This is the kind of tinfoilish garbage reasons for suspecting people that costs people games.

 

 

As for why I said wait til day 3, I figured that gave scum two chances to NK the REAL cop, at which point I could safely reveal the theory and not harm my cover OR the actual cop would claim and I wouldn't need to give cover anyways.  The alternative was I'd be dead, and once people saw the flip, they would have stopped caring.

 

 

So congratulations to Zander, Shad, Yates, and BFG.  Your inability to wait another phase when I told you I knew what the hell I was doing has now put town in at least a marginally worse position by destroying yet ANOTHER player's cover.  The good news is, BFG is almost certainly town beyond just being SHC, and Yates-Zander PROBABLY arne't teammates, so I can find relief in the thought that at least two  (and possibly up to four) townies drove me to do this.

 

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[BFG]

Specifically my guests woke up, so I'm out for a while, but this is what I wondered about and I don't 'like' Clov's reasons here, but need to step back to assess if they're fair even though his reaction to it was different to mine