[Advanced] The Usual Suspects Mafia - GAME OVER - COPS WIN

[Kivam]

Yates, i linked her the signup thread. She knew

 

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[Kivam]

AJ - sensitive to "bad blood" is one thing. Making up a crazy theory to support it is something else entirely

 

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[Andrej]

AJ - sensitive to "bad blood" is one thing. Making up a crazy theory to support it is something else entirely Sent from my SM-G900P using Tapatalk

 

Yeah, I get that.

 

But again - you pointing to the fact you stated your intent in the signup thread doesn't really negate the action imo.

 

Hallia said as much iirc

[Kivam]

It makes the action objectively null. How could it not, when the intent was announced before i knew my alignment?

 

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[Andrej]

Because it can be used as cover?

 

It's really not a hard concept. There's two sides to any action in Mafia, for the most part.

 

Like I said earlier - your saving grace was Mish moving the vote and you not continuing down that path of inevitable destruction.

[Kivam]

I agree with Key...Kivam lies,

 

Occupational hazard, luv

[Kivam]

Since nobody is doing anything ... [v]Pralaya[/v].  If my memory is right, he likes to lurk as scum, and hasn't checked in yet.  Pral, where're you at?  Start laying some content down.

 

Reading this back ... yeah, can see where the confusion came from.  Lucky you, you guys don't live in my head.

 

[Kivam]

 

 

Great, 15 pages already. Ollie is playing swat the phone out of my hands and I won't be around for long, catching up on what I can.

Bet you can't teach him to say [v]Kivam[/v] before I can teach mine to say [v]Shad[/v]

 

 

LMAO...I think you now need therapy. <3

 

 

Now?

 

[Kivam]

 

 

Since nobody is doing anything ... [v]Pralaya[/v].  If my memory is right, he likes to lurk as scum, and hasn't checked in yet.  Pral, where're you at?  Start laying some content down.

Do you think he is online but isn't saying anything?

 

Don't know, don't care (I don't use the "you were online but not posting!" angle for scumhunting).  Just hoping to spur some content when he does get on and see it.

 

 

Just pointing this out, since it came before anyone brought any pressure on me at all for the Pral vote (that Sili post is the first one even mentioning it).  I think this makes pretty clear how I was actually thinking of that vote at the time, regardless of how others may have read it.

 

[Andrej]

This probably makes me sound a little hypocritical because I'm not caught up - but Kiv, it's pg 90. You're still talking about the Pral vote?

 

Gun to your head, who is scum iyo?

 

If you could shoot someone right now, who would it be?

[Kivam]

Oh I see. This is ongoing.

 

Difference between Laine and Kivam is Kivam has a fuse and Laine has a rule. These things speak to their mentality. Therefore if Kivam uses the fuse to not play the game, this is bad. Whereas Laine can continue using her rule of thumb as long as there is genuine progression.

 

This remains a silly distinction, since in both cases it would seem like the real question is "does it get used as an excuse not to play, or is there genuine progression" - which means I'd expect the reaction to both as an alignment tell to be consistent (either sit and watch for genuine progression or attack right away).  Don't have a read on Sili from this beyond an associative read, but the inconsistency does not make me feel good about Hally.

 

Through this point in the thread, strongest scum read is Hally, strongest town is (of all people) Zander, and everyone else is mostly null.

 

[Kivam]

This probably makes me sound a little hypocritical because I'm not caught up - but Kiv, it's pg 90. You're still talking about the Pral vote?

 

Gun to your head, who is scum iyo?

 

If you could shoot someone right now, who would it be?

 

1) I'm doing a catch up reread with live reactions as I go.  It is what it is.

 

2) Right now?  Hally.  Just too many inconsistencies, too much poor logic.  The only thing giving me pause on this is you, Yates, Sili, and Cory having good reactions to her posts - because the odds that all 5 of you are scum is obviously miniscule, meaning that at least one townie is reading the same thing I am and going "yeah, I'm with Hally" ... which means TownHally could be legitimately thinking the same thing.  Gun to my head, though, I think I'm right.   

 

3) Nobody.  I don't shoot Day 1.  Nowhere near enough info to justify the risk.

[Andrej]

3) *****

[Kivam]

Back home and back to catching up, bottom of p10:

 

Why do you think "sass" is alignment indicative?

Because I feel like this is an easy way for that slot to hop on a player and sit there, boasting of a 'grudge.'

You should call someone out when the sitting actually happens then, no?

 

 

Yes. This.

[Andrej]

You guys get to experience the gradual degradation of my posts as I polish off this 12 pack.

 

Cheers!

[Kivam]

 

 

Through page 6. Sili's doing a lot to get the game moving but posting an actual reads list already is kind of weird.

The list was because I was bored and wanted to get my thoughts out there in a neat fashion.

 

It's early, yes.  But it's never a bad idea to put what you're thinking out there.  It shows progression, which is something I like to look for when making my own reads.

 

 

OK, genuinely not liking the byplay between Sili and Hally there.  Have no idea what the relevant difference they're relying on is.  Someone care to explain?

 

Cory, can you explain that read?

Wait, really?

 

You (seemingly) voted AJ due to anger carried over from another game.  It had nothing to do with this one.

 

Laine is (seemingly) using her hydra position to try and figure out this game.  But obviously her position on LAH needs to change with evidence/reads, so she needs to have some kind of progression.  Otherwise it's a poor excuse for play.

 

The bold is important.  If she doesn't move from that position, then there is no difference between Kivam and Laine's pre-announced votes.  The green though, even if that's the intention and what differs between their votes, it's not something I've explicitly seen yet.  That doesn't mean it can't change, but until it does, the votes are made with the same kind of pre-announced justification.  So I think it's natural to wonder why one is being carefully examined while the other goes seeming scot-free.

 

 

And also this.

 

[Kivam]

 

Since nobody is doing anything ... [v]Pralaya[/v].  If my memory is right, he likes to lurk as scum, and hasn't checked in yet.  Pral, where're you at?  Start laying some content down.

 

He lurked as town in Belichick but showed up with some pretty solid observations when he did get into it.

 

 

Liking this post from Shad as well.

[Kivam]

 

 

 

OK, genuinely not liking the byplay between Sili and Hally there

 

I don't even understand what this means tbh

 

Step 1: Sili says he finds looking crosseyed at someone for following through on what they said they were going to do in a signup thread is scummy

 

Step 2: I'm wondering if that's really his thought process or he's just looking for someone to FoS, so I ask for his view on Hally doing the same thing to me

 

Step 3: He says "oh, that's different because [explanation I don't follow at all]"

 

Step 4: Hally says "yep, that's why it's different"

 

Step 5: You townread Hally for it.

 

???

 

*shrug*

 

I haven't caught up, therefore I'm using conjecture to fill in the blanks. It seems Laine dislikes hydras. And when I said her approach was unimpressive I meant I was watching her therefore.

 

I think you are still voting AJ right? Well, a vendetta is fine normally, but when it interferes with game play it is bad. I get the sense Hallia feels it is bad because you stuck with your vote. PRobably she feels as though Laine is genuine.

 

For my own part, I have not decided, but what Mish said didn't fit what I saw.

 

 

Taking this at face value, Sili isn't paying attention to the vote count - which I've never seen scum do.  That's a really subtle towntell to fake, and if Sili is pulling it off, bravo ... for now, I'll call you provisional town.

[Kivam]

 

OK, I'm done.

 

Shad, will you now concede that I was right?

 

Good thing Verbalou bowed out of this game.  Neither would have believed all that emo from me

 

I am legitimately serious, however, about not liking the double standard Sili is laying down.  I placed a ventvote on AJ early in the game, never had the chance to move it off when the game actually got serious, but Hally took that as a scumtell despite my announcing in the signup thread, pre-role PM, that I was going to be doing just that.  That's weird enough, but Sili finding it scummy when Laine gets suspected for following through on a Lynch All Hydras early joke approach, but perfectly townie when Hally does the same thing on my follow through on a ventvote is really hard for me to grasp.

In full, it's like this...

 

I have previously stated I do not have the requisite information to properly ascertain the likely-hood of either you or Laine flipping scum based on your approach to the game. I presume however Hallia has read more of the game than I have since she woke up. I do not think that is the case for Mish because Mish was very particular in her language. And to be clear, I do not like Laine's approach and probably never will, but I am looking for progression when I read her posts.

 

I did not call HAllia villagery. I did not call Laine scummy. The words I use are a lot more ambiguous because I feel ambiguously.

 

Furthermore a double standard is correct when you have two different people in two different situations. You apply different expectations in other words.

 

Well, you have missed the nuance of my statements and misrepresented me. And this has gone nowhere, therefore [v]Kivam[/v].

 

 

I never said you did.  I said CORY did.  Way too much talking past people going on in this game.

 

[Kivam]

 

 

Nyn - what about Kivam's content did you not like?

 

What caught my eye at first was the way he was supporting Laine's hydra hate campaign. Some others agreed with her as well (like Zander, wind and so on), but he went about it differently. Obviously I think the whole theory is a bunch of BS because it's 100% arbitrary (oh look, I used percentage so it must be true!). But the way he was trying to make it more than what it is, using mathematical certainty, reeks.

 

I didn't realize at that point that he and Mish are hydra, and I kinda liked how she was standing her ground, but looking at the interaction between them now... it looks awkward. I mean, sure, she gets defensive at anything. But then he explains to her how it totally does make sense (which it doesn't)... and she bows to his everlasting wisdom and backs off? Considering how strongly she felt about the entire thing?  Feels off.

 

But what really struck a chord with me was his reasoning for voting Pral. He dismissed my comments about it, but it's right there. He was trying to misrep Pral. It's great that he only played with him as scum.... but he can't make an accusation based on meta if he doesn't know Pral's overall meta. His responses ranged between.... oh I only played with him as scum so that's all I know.... to him claiming that his vote was just made for reaction since Pral hasn't checked in yet. Which I don't really buy. He could have dropped a nudge vote for activity rather than use a bogus meta reason for that vote.

 

 

Kinda disagree with the bold about it being complete BS, when there technically IS some mathematical probability to it, and I really don't think he was trying to give it some greater accuracy.  He actually said the exact opposite of that, IIRC.  Obviously I agree with your point about his meta read on Pralaya, and I think you look good for making it.  

 

 

I also feel like I should tell you that I was more concerned with how you answered this question than what you answered it with, if that makes sense.  Your original posts to/about Kiv didn't seem to have that bite that I associate with your town game - very short and not...aggressive? enough.  

 

 

Nyn gets notably more aggressive after this post, IIRC.  It's 1am and I'm stopping my reread after this page, so ... we'll see

[Kivam]

okok

 

fwiw Pral's absences tend to be less of the "lurker" variety and more of the "doesn't have a lot of time" afaict - when he's around he usually posts and makes reads of his own volition

 

I guess we'll see

 

Liked this whole back and forth with Cory, reminds me why I'm leaning town on him.

 

To this point in the thread:

 

Townish

Zander

Sili

Shad

Cory

Clov

 

Scummish

Hally

 

Everyone else is in a mainly nullpile, with a memory check on Nyn's style still to come.

[Andrej]

pg 31-45

 

 

Okay let's play this out hypothetically

 

Kivam flips mafia

 

Pral, Player A, Player B, Player C and Player D all were inactive at the time of that post

 

Give me your reads on Pral and Player A-D and what Kivam only mentioning Pral means

 

Convince me any line of trought regarding this is > rand.

 

Not a bad argument. I think Clov's line of thought more aligned with Kiv's meta (correct me if I'm wrong) that's he's generally a bussy wolf. So if he flipped mafia, later on, this could be incriminating for Pral.

 

Clov - yeah, if he showed up immediately that would also have been a red flag. Same as if he posted just a "I'm here, caught up, be back later" post. But showing up and commenting on the thread and vote would be a null tell, since it fits equally with town and scum alignments. And since that's what i expect to happen, not a reaction test since i don't expect alignment indicators from it Sent from my SM-G900P using Tapatalk

 

So what was really the point of the vote then? If you think he's going to show up and post reads regardless of alignment, rendering it null, then the exercise was pointless from the beginning.

 

I feel like I should've seen more from Talya, Lenlo, Wombat, Nolderf, Hallia, Razen, AJ, Snow (has he checked in yet? can't remember)... And I think it's strange that so few have looked outside of me and Kivam. We don't have alot of votes, but I feel like alot of the votes in place right now are just "I'll leave my vote here until a lynch really starts forming". Mafia is having a very easy D1, methinks. I put my foot in my mouth and that's where the focus has been. I liked that Seph was looking elsewhere, but it doesn't seem like anyone else even read his post; even after my vote no-one has commented there. It's lazy IMO. Kiv and I get lynched, flip town, and where's town gonna be then? I think every single person in the game so far has commented that we are suss, but very few has placed a vote so far. And yet no-one is bringing up any other alternatives, so everyone is gonna pile on us when EOD approaches and say "oh yeah they're the scummiest thing all day after all".

 

I don't like lazy town, makes the job too easy for mafia.

 

This post reads more as a complaint than anything else. Sure, you and Kiv are the talking point at this point for justifiable reasons. Instead of just pointing out how everyone else is playing lazy, why aren't you doing YOUR part and looking into other things?

 

Like who? Do you think it's intentional? What is/are he/she/they misreading?

Personally, I'm not worried about the hydra hunting stuff. That's a discussion we had quite recently [star Wars, I think?].

I also don't care about the vendetta thing; though I would have counted both of your votes from earlier when Kaylee asked instead. If you use vote formatting, I think it's a vote. And I don't think it's crazy for a mod to count it, regardless of the situation. People actually DO self-vote for whatever reason. So it's not unreasonable to assume that a vote statement formatted as a vote will be counted as a vote. So really, I think that's on you without knowing anything else about it - but I digress. I don't want to make an argument out of something that isn't really any of my business.

I *do* agree that the Pral stuff looks bad. I get that you prod inactives. I think you told us that was your Town meta when you voted for him as our team mate. I'm not even really bothered by the vote itself. What's bothering me is how you chose to explain the vote. If you said something as simple as "I picked a name out of a hat" or "Pral is the only inactive I know so I prodded him," then I don't think this would even still be an issue.

I'm not trying to gang up on you here. I just want you to understand at least where *I* am coming from so maybe you can help me understand where *YOU* are coming from. Thanks.

 

Kinda like this post by Yates. Might put him as a light green read at this point.

 

Never heard if Matlock. Not American, remember? :P Thanks for dumbing down the sentence for me XD

 

Honestly, I have no idea what he wants with Pral, he hasn't posted much in our QT after the hydra talk, even tho I've been trying to ask him questions. I told him I thought it was a stupid post to begin with and to drop it. He has not, and hasn't replied to me. So I dunno if he's still emo and sulking or whatever. I'm annoyed at least.

 

I still think "lynch all hydras" is a stupid strategy and I've though so ever since Mynd introduced it last year. The "cutting down on posts to sift through" argument is BS; then you should lynch the top posters, not hydras. And it makes as little sense to choose hydras as a group as everyone who has an od number as their slot number, or everyone with an "a" in their name. Plus, it's not how I like to play mafia. I generally DGAF about the mathematical play, it's not my style. I'm an emotional gut player, not an analytical mathematical one. To keep bringing it up to me just disrupts D1 play. Instead of letting a conversation naturally develop, you force an issue that is very easy for mafia to stay out of or make themselves look good in. Arguing game mechaanics over actualy gameplay = BLEH. It doesn't help me the least in my style of playing. It just gives mafia an excuse to sit back and take it chill D1.

 

This is a pretty fair argument against the LAH thing. I can agree with the point that choosing a random group of players likely won't be successful. The part that I don't like it that you talk about disliking mathematical play, but after Kiv stats there's good odds in finding scum in the hydras based on statistics you back away from your original point. Stick to your guns imo.

 

If we're being lazy, then take up the helm :p.

 

My thoughts echo Key's here.

 

This is a good catch. 

 

Here's my own thoughts up to this point regarding who's pushed Kivam/Mish:

Based solely on what people have posted up to this point, I'm getting good vibes from Sili and Nyn. They're the only two that I've seen that appear genuine in their pushing against them. I've liked the way that Sili has approached Kivam - he's focused on the misrep of his statements, not what everyone else has been seeing as defensive or scummy from them.

 

Nyn has been...abrasive in how she's asked some of her questions and given her responses.  It's different from what I'm used to seeing, but that isn't a bad thing.  I've generally liked the way she's pushed the misrep of Pralaya's meta from Kivam.

 

Regarding the Kivam/Mish situation: Kivam's vote on Andrej is still a null tell.  It's been moved since, and because Mish and Kivam are two heads of the same player, I'm factoring in both halves' actions into my read.  I don't agree with the point that Hallia raised that since it wasn't Kivam who moved it, that it looks scummy.  I need to refresh myself on that interaction though, because I don't believe she was the only one pushing that angle.  I also want to look back and see who's parked their votes in light of what Mish pointed out on Shad.  Difference being that Hallia has a reason for voting instead of leaving a policy/joke parked on someone, but I also haven't seen anything outside of that yet. 

 

The points that Sili and Nyn have raised I feel are legitimate.  I didn't like the way that Kivam only called out Pralaya when there are other players that hadn't checked in either.  The meta part doesn't matter to me - as I've said before, I'm not familiar with a lot of it.  Why specifically target one player when there's others that could be prodded as well?  I didn't really like Kiv's explanation about that.

 

Other things that came to mind:

 

I think it's kind of interesting that Wombat pulled up the post count when he was towards the bottom end of that list.  I'm not sure what the point he was trying to make is, but it seems odd that it comes from the same end of the list that people tend to look unfavorably at.

 

But it does bring me to my next observation.  People that I've seen pretty much only fluff from.  Or rather, person.  That's Lenlo.  He did say that he was moving, to be fair, but I would still have hoped to see more when he was here.

 

So, I'm off to review the first portion of the Kivam piece regarding his Andrej vote.  Be back in a bit with what I've found.

 

Generally it seems you're putting a lot of thought into your posts. I don't know you as a player, but I think it's probably a more positive sign than not. Regarding Nyn, I don't think the abrasiveness is out of place at all - that's pretty much town!Nyn in a nutshell, but perhaps our experience varies. As I stated earlier, Lenlo's fluff isn't really alignment indicative. He tends to sort of float and joke around regardless of his alignment, which makes him a question mark towards end game.

 

If I had to say, I would have

 

Sili, CorKey, Yates, and Nyce down as my townies for the moment

 

Townish/Null would be: AJ, Raz, ClovFG

 

Null: Most everyone else

 

Scummy: Kivish

 

Don't hate these reads at this point.

 

-snip-

 

Laine's +1 sticks out.  Egging it along, but not committing to the push.

 

-snip-

 

And Zander doing the same thing.

 

 

Difference between the two, Zander commits to a vote on Kivam/Mish later on in the thread.  He piggybacks Sili to do so, but he has a reason.  Laine just seems to be egging it on, but not really wanting to commit to it herself.  Her vote's also been parked on Nolder and Darthe for a while.  It leads me to believe that she hasn't left the lynch all hydras thing.  If I recall, it's why people were pushing Kivam because Laine's was game related and his wasn't.  But Kiv/Mish have progressed beyond that, while Laine hasn't yet.  Which given that we're now into the content-phase of Day 1 is somewhat alarming.

 

Not a terrible observation on Laine egging on votes. Regarding the activity though, since I can relate, I don't think it means much yet.

 

-snip-

 

Voting me for what Seph said I said instead of looking at what I said is super-bad. [v]Misheru[/v]

Surprisingly not that bothered by Kivam yet.

 

Can't really blame you for this sort of vote. On a general note, not everyone is gonna fact check like you're probably used to. I don't think the lack of attentiveness is really indicative of either alignment, tbh.

 

I really don't like that Zander is just plus oneing everything. The things he is backing look good, but he's one of the most active players and hasn't contributed a single original thought. Very comfortable with my vote atp

 

Meh. I don't really agree with the premise of your vote here - from what I've seen Zander seems to be playing pretty normally from my experience but I don't think the +1'ing of posts means much. Could just be as simple as he sees points that he agrees with and instead of agreeing he just reps them.

 

Trying to keep track of all the people I can.

 

 

Town Reads

 

Hallia- Like her spunk.  came in ready to go with no fear.

Nyn- straight to the point, pulling no punches. liked her posts.

Sili- started to get the game in gear.  making solid points.

Alanna- Playing more like her Town!Alanna self.

 

Scum-

 

Kiv/Mish- emo posts, overreactions, defensive, not game solving.

 

Rest will take a while.

 

Your town reads are okay, except for Alanna. Not sure what you were seeing at this point to have her up there in the list.

 

Jaded, perhaps?

 

MOD NOTE: CSARMI WILL BE REPLACING BECK

 

FFS

 

I did think page more like thread, but the last post he quoted was from p15 so I'm not losing sleep over it. I'd like to see how his real catch-up goes before forming opinions.

 

Pretty fair stance to take in this regard. I'd like to think reasonable/open minded Shad = town?

 

I understand that I am psychic sometimes

 

This is not one of those times

 

Ok. You're still assuming though. Take the old adage to heart here "No news is good news". Generally I haven't had a problem with your or Key's posts up to this point save for the premature read on BFG's activity.

 

In short, focusing on a group that might be all villagers is crazy, stupid and scummy.

 

@Laine - unless you wanna focus on people with names starting with A perhaps?

 

Inversely, if Laine's a villager, I think arguing this point would be easy for scum.

 

Do you disagree?

 

Cool.

 

Town:

Razen

Hallia

Sili

Nyn

Bfg

Nol

AJ

 

[v]Zander[/v]

 

Not feeling the Kivam/Mish lynch atm. 

 

Cool.

 

Now explain.

 

 

Actually, mish, there is a logic (to cut down on game bloat) that is good enough to start with, since it's not mathematically worse than any other random group of players. ......................and for us, it's actually mathematically better, since we'd be looking for 2 scum out of seven hydras - a 29% chance - instead of 5 scum in 19 players (a 26% chance). Of course, that assumes an even distribution, but if we're going to look at a random pool of 8, I'd rather it be one we're in rather than one we're not Sent from my SM-G900P using Tapatalk

Technically, this logic applies only if you are planning to vote blind the entire game. People make informed choices. Even if it is D1, there are some stuff people base their votes on. So, I don't generally agree with this argument.

This whole conversation was out of the place.

 

Not a bad opener from Pral here - logic reads as pretty sound. I would agree that the chances of there being two scum in the hydra group is inaccurate because roles weren't dispensed within that group of 8, but the whole 20 instead.

 

What did you mean by the conversation being out of place?

 

Highest train is 4 votes iirc, which is l-7. It doesn't feel like anybody is really under pressure or exerting pressure. 

 

Eh, i guess there's a bit of pressure on Kivish, but it's lacking. 

 

So it's not rolling enough imo. 

 

What do you think of the Kiv wagon, personally?

 

Just so everyone knows, this is why I hate big games.

I'm constantly in catchup mode and have no idea what's what, who's who, or what is going on.

I hope this game has a lot of guns in it.

 

Me too. Lots and lots of guns.

 

This seems important to be honest. [unvote]

[v]Laine[/v]

 

To add pressure.

 

Meh. Again - I don't think Laine really had a chance to 'progress' from her original statement of looking into the hydras as her plan for attacking this game.

 

So when reading through the thread previously I saw Kiv go after Pral for not posting yet and catch some heat for it.

My opinion on that is that Kiv is justified because Pral usually does take prodding but also I think it's really early in the game for prodding anyway so...both sides are kind of right on that?

 

Thinking Kiv was just looking for something to latch on to. Null imo.

 

Your wording would suggest otherwise, imo. Do townies 'latch' onto things?

 

45 pages how wonderful.  Gonna need a drink.  Or six.

 

[unvote]

 

Or ten.

 

 

 

[Andrej]

Taking this at face value, Sili isn't paying attention to the vote count - which I've never seen scum do.  That's a really subtle towntell to fake, and if Sili is pulling it off, bravo ... for now, I'll call you provisional town.

 

Hm, okay.

 

I think there are probably better reasons to be town reading Sili. Generally I don't trust ignorance.

[alannalynn]

Okay I'm back around now, enjoyed my dinner and ice cream. Kinda had an okay last day of freedom before the school semester starts.

Going back to my previous post to catch up before reading 60-80 which is where I left off last. Hopefully I'll have a somewhat decent reads list

[alannalynn]

Btw Andrej, have you ever tried the Ben and Jerry's Americone Dream? Probably the best ice cream ever.