Belichick - Mafia Eternal Night

[BFG]

Morning :)

[dicetosser1]

morning BFG

[BFG]

Sili given that Yates was extremely likely to have shot Hallia, how does that prove you of anything?

[BFG]

Dice, how likely would you have been to switch to Talia without Thane's switch?

[dicetosser1]

i probably wouldnt have at that point. I would have needed something good from zander cause he was always my one to lynch before her

[BFG]

That's sort of the problem I have :/ I think Thane, you and I all had Zander before Talya... I was lock clearing Thane (at that stage) so what does he gain by switching the lynch?

[BFG]

As in were going to lynch Sander before Talya, if it wasn't clear.

[BFG]

Stupid autocorrect :(

 

All your names have been added to my dictionary and it STILL autocorrect

[dicetosser1]

is it feasible that Thane did it to totally clear himself to endgame?

[BFG]

Day 5, did you think Town had vig shots left?

[dicetosser1]

i hadnt been counting.

 

i was meaning to ask you  can you give me ure actions in order but looking at it now  dont bother with that  just give Who did you protect N3?  that seems to be the one night there was no kill. either you stopped it or thewy didnt shoot. if they didnt shoot we HAVE to get this right

[dicetosser1]

 we have had 4 vanillas die and 3 vigs

 

2 of those vigs would be the random rolled ones

 

 

looking at the front page and knowing i cant shoot  no i dont think there were town kills left D5

[BFG]

I'm not sharing who I've been protecting, beyond I already said I self protected N1/2.

 

There's no way of knowing if mafia have a kill left or not, it's 'possible' if unlikely(!) they shot at me N1, it's possible Laine died with a bullet, it's possible (if unlikely) they shot at my doc protect one night since.

 

If I was mafia (probably the only game I ever get to say that I'd save a shot to end game. Whether that was once we reached F4 or F3.

 

I was assuming town were out by ~Day 4 (I think) which means mislynch calculations become easy for mafia to calculate.

 

 

You're the only person that can be confident in surviving F3 if mafia, bussing needs to take that into account.

 

From that perspective Thane's vote looks REALLY good for him/Sili.

 

But we KNOW Talya was bussed. So I'm trying to account for the rest of the game.

 

Based solely on how Day 5 turned out you and Thane look better than Zander, but he's been 'on' Talia all game (sort of)

[BFG]

Day 5;

 

6 alive 4v2

 

1 mislynch, 1 NK, no town vig shots mean mafia win.

 

If mafia are out of shots then the ONLY person to win at F3 as mafia (at that point) is Dice, which makes bussing even stranger. I know I'd 'hard cleared' Thane, but don't think anyone would think I'd pick him over Dice at that point

[Sili Quirrels]

Sili given that Yates was extremely likely to have shot Hallia, how does that prove you of anything?

It doesn't. That is not why I mentioned it.

 

I mentioned it because it means wolves have a bullet, and only Zander can have a bullet.

[Sili Quirrels]

is it feasible that Thane did it to totally clear himself to endgame?

He was going on vacation and couldn't count on a replacement, and I doubt any wolf throws away a mislynch to bus a teammate under those circumstances.

[BFG]

Sili, when you've played with Zander before what's his voting record like?

[Sili Quirrels]

More succinct is...

 

Zander is what makes this mylo. We lose nothing lynching him. We would do this even if we thought he was town (he ain't though). The only argument for not lynching him is Talya messed up big and threw the game.

[Sili Quirrels]

Sili, when you've played with Zander before what's his voting record like?

What do you mean?

 

I only remember the SW game with him.

 

He was onto all the mafia like every other villager.

[BFG]

More succinct is...

 

Zander is what makes this mylo. We lose nothing lynching him. We would do this even if we thought he was town (he ain't though). The only argument for not lynching him is Talya messed up big and threw the game.

Walk me through this slowly, cos I don't understand what you're saying...

[BFG]

 

Sili, when you've played with Zander before what's his voting record like?

What do you mean?

 

I only remember the SW game with him.

 

He was onto all the mafia like every other villager.

 

Probably nothing, I was thinking early/late sort of thing.

[Sili Quirrels]

 

More succinct is...

 

Zander is what makes this mylo. We lose nothing lynching him. We would do this even if we thought he was town (he ain't though). The only argument for not lynching him is Talya messed up big and threw the game.

Walk me through this slowly, cos I don't understand what you're saying...

 

Talya did not hammer Zander, so if Zander is town, her teammate does not have a bullet. Otherwise by hammering Zander she would have had an 80%+ chance of winning immediately, and an acceptable win rate thereafter.

[Sili Quirrels]

 

More succinct is...

 

Zander is what makes this mylo. We lose nothing lynching him. We would do this even if we thought he was town (he ain't though). The only argument for not lynching him is Talya messed up big and threw the game.

Walk me through this slowly, cos I don't understand what you're saying...

 

Talya did not hammer Zander, so if Zander is town, her teammate does not have a bullet. Otherwise by hammering Zander she would have had an 80%+ chance of winning immediately, and an acceptable win rate thereafter.

[BFG]

It's 3am, this isn't happening tonight

 

Placeholder

 

 

 

 

 

 

Just rereading for overall summarizing, wanted to get a feel for the topics that have been brought up in the game so far

 

pg 1-2 all rollover from the last game

pg 2-6 I'm getting voted (Shad, Hally, Yates) for disliking normal things; this is where Shad comes in with his town read of BFG after Andrej asks

pg 6-8 Sports talk??

pg 7-9 Vig talk: holding +ev for town (started by Yates/AJ)

pg 10 a lot of spam

pg 11-13  Yates and his "no lynch" plan that he clears Zander/Talya for; really don't like Thane's post #260, which Andrej and Zander point out as well; I mention he's pinging but differently than in Star Wars; Also don't like the post quoted below

pg 14-15 July 4th, revisiting Shad's reasoning

 

 

 

 

 

for the moment, Zander is the only one i trust here. I can always Vig him if he betrays me in another game.

 

As for Verb and Pral, they'd be 0 info lynches. Would be nice to wreck some wolves without too much town casualties this game, and we'd need to gather info to do so, right?

 

I'll be coming and going this weekend, depending on how the kids want to spend their time *nods*

I'm all for clearing Zander already, but why bring up Verb and Pral like we're going to lynch them? They haven't even made a post yet in the game. Feels like a weird thing to mention. Second sentence in the underlined is odd too, it seems like you want an info lynch more than a wolf lynch. But you bring up Verb and Pral as if they're on the table.

 

 

 

 

<3 Shad

 

 

 

 

 

I'm so down

 

LEAVE ALANNA ALONEEEEEE

Thank youuuuu

 

 

 

@Laine - Disappoint because you're bashing on my favorite beverage

Maybe a little bashing. I also don't like chocolate ice cream, tomatoes, oranges (they make my skin break out), cherries, watermelon, and an assortment of other random things including people and going outside.

 

This plus bacon and anything smoked or grilled and you have listed my favorite things. Die, scum.

 

I LOVE BACON

 

Mostly the things I don't like are because of consistency or acidity. Thinks like oranges and tomatoes literally give me rashes. Anything too seedy also makes me squirmish

 

 

obviously crawling for town cred

 

unvote vote LAine

 

 

 

Dice how is that helping at all? Do you have actual points to make?

 

 

goodmorning all *has coffee and distributes where necessary*

 

Alanna: i tend to ping all the time, it has gotten me mislynched quite a few times. But it's how i play. If someone townreads me D1, that player is suspicious to me.

 

BFG: Happy to see you! Very nice entrance. I noticed you saw me mentioning Verb and Pral and me not wanting to lynch them. I don't, they need to play first. As far as lynching goes: the prime suspect would give most information, and personally i don't feel like there's a lot of diffirence between lynching a likely wolf and an infolynch. After all: you lynch suspects to get to a wolf, all the time.

 

Dice: wow, didn't think you would be in. and some post it is.... interesting.

 

 

 

goodmorning all *has coffee and distributes where necessary*

 

Alanna: i tend to ping all the time, it has gotten me mislynched quite a few times. But it's how i play. If someone townreads me D1, that player is suspicious to me.

 

BFG: Happy to see you! Very nice entrance. I noticed you saw me mentioning Verb and Pral and me not wanting to lynch them. I don't, they need to play first. As far as lynching goes: the prime suspect would give most information, and personally i don't feel like there's a lot of diffirence between lynching a likely wolf and an infolynch. After all: you lynch suspects to get to a wolf, all the time.

 

Dice: wow, didn't think you would be in. and some post it is.... interesting.

Thane already getting BFG and me mixed up ITT?

 

Just a light fos for now Thane, give me some good reads?

 

 

^ this was going to be my second point. I feel like I sometimes understand Andrej. Other times I want to kick him in the head.

That's not very nice.

 

Roll over feelings from Star Wars. Deal with it.

 

 

 

alanna: i did? oh..sorry... been another sleepless night and my brain's not working the way it should. I'll try not to post before i had a large dose of coffee in the future.  

 

i'll try to get something out today, depending on wether or not my kids will let me.

 

 

 

 

Whatcha thinking Andrej?

Like I said, mostly a hunch. I don't really understand his progression on BFG or the explanation he provided.

 

It also seems that he's more off topic than not (he isn't the only guilty one of this) but there have been places in the game where I feel like opportunities were there to make observations and he didn't. For instance, the Yates test and the Thane posts a few of us have commented on. I don't remember him saying anything about these and instead he's telling us about his house. Which is great and all but doesn't catch wolves.

 

 

Chatty because football and awesome explosions outside and I know some of you now.

 

Wolf Thane in Star Wars literally repeated the same four observations he made in the first 24 hours up until the moment he was lynched, while taking every opportunity to push things off topic.  He's already put out as much meaningful content as he did that entire game, and that's pretty promising.  I think if he's town it will become pretty obvious with time.

 

Talya's reaction to the no vote argument was promising.  She seemed to take it seriously and hop on board.  I can't give Zander a pass for it.  I think there's a decent chance he thought it was an obvious joke just like I did and played along.  I mean even if the rules did permit Yates' approach, it's not like we'd be granted a free win.  They'd be modified accordingly.  I think if Zander took it seriously he'd have investigated and seen that it was wrong, so null on his reply.

 

Yates test looks great for Talya because I think she sincerely bought it.

 

 

 

 

So basically anyone who is NOT a 9ers fan is obv wolf imo!!!

 

 

 

Dice how is that helping at all? Do you have actual points to make?

 

ooohh did I just touch a nerve?  Im thinking I did.

 

 

 

You didn't hit a nerve Dice, it's just that I already received three votes for not liking things, and then you hop in on a vote when we're actually discussing the game in the thread, when you could be adding to what we're saying. That looks worse on you than on me, imo.

 

 

no harm done

 

dice feels ... snipy/agressive ? Not sure what to make of that.

 

 

lets look at this.  Have I been here?  No. Is that my first post on return? YES. Could it have been a joke while i was catching up? YES.

 

Did you react badly? YES.

 

 

Dice feels hungover and tired Thane. Dice was joking and Alanna bit him Thane.  So Dice got annoyed and more sure he may have found scum Thane

 

 

If it counts for anything I've been drinking all night. Your entrance and timing were poorly done Dice

 

 

interesting. I mentioned it because it's quite unusual for you to do things like that (in my opinion). We'll see where this will lead *nods* not bad, dice, not bad.

 

 

So what DO you think Dice?

 

 

after your reaction i think you are mafia

 

for the rest its been mostly fluff tho I took note of AJs gut and Yates test.

 

Bolded could be chainsaw defence from Thane, but he carries this through after Laine has been lynched, which looks better, then drops it rather abruptly Day 5 (does Thane ever really trust my reads that much?)...

 

Dice looking ok at this point, @Dice the bold red, more sure? You said that the initial vote was a joke? Which implies that you had no read... so what made the initial read (before her response made you 'more sure')?

 

 

Laine clearing Zander early - pocketing or teammate? Early FOS on Thane

 

 

Thane mixes up me and Laine one of those subconscious things I wouldn't expect mafia to do?

[BFG]

Don't really like any of these :/

 

 

 

 

I think we no lynch today and hope Zander makes it on thread tomorrow. I don't really like that option since the thread is stalling anyway, but I don't know if there's a 'good' alternative.

 

If Zander's town and doesn't show/vote I don't see a way for town to win as things stand.

We lynch Zander, hope wolves don't have a bullet, and reevaluate at f3.

 

I dunno, technically it's now night. If Zander doesn't show Day 8 then I don't see much of a choice. But mafia almost certainly have a shot left :/

 

Is there a world where you don't vote me over Dice?

 

Why ask this?

 

 

Kind of tempted to let this town lose.

 

Again?

 

Anyway. Dices instincts have always been rand. It seems this time he is saying thanes name as a sound off. Its moronic to take him seriously.

 

Why?  

 

 

So what DO you think Dice?

after your reaction i think you are mafia

 

for the rest its been mostly fluff tho I took note of AJs gut and Yates test.

after your reaction i think you are mafia

 

for the rest its been mostly fluff tho I took note of AJs gut and Yates test.

More t/t interaction.

 

T/T?

 

 

<snip>

On phone.

 

My notes are talya is likely distancing after talking strategy with zander. You can see how zander nudges her a few pages before this and now she does the same to him and laine.

 

Laine is pairing wolves and towns to avoid spew. I know i have more info than u bfg but its true. U snd talya then zander and shad

 

Laine has also paired town/town throughout the game

 

 

 

 

 

Quotes snipped because of DM limits :/

 

 

 

 

 

Zander, this is what Talia posted between your reads, and your interaction. I'll admit she posted more than I remembered, I'd still like a reason of possible :)

  tbh shes still null i just find the tone "Now Dog"  :"We can still be lazy and win" but mostly my gut.  my gut served me pretty well thus far and im learning to trust it. its D1 with not a whole lot going on.   Chances are there a wolf (s) in the little to non posters according to the CCSOHW and one (some) posting.   Just making.

 

Backtracks awkwardly from nudging. Bfg come on see what im seeing. Zander is new he wants to create distance but he doesnt want to lynch talya. He realizes a lot of eyes are on scum... ppl are talking about them so he tries to divert focus to low posters instead of talya.

 

 

Low posters does seem out of place

 

Wolves have a shot left.... I just looked at who died from an nk and 4 have.

 

Thane killed hallia. We lost our other viges eatly.

 

Lynch zander and win pls. U know im not a wolf with a bullet now. i dont believe dice has a bullet or talya would have hammered

How do 'I' know you're not a wolf with a bullet based on above?