[Advanced] Arthurian Mafia

[Sili Quirrels]

I strongly doubt mafia is 2 players, but if so, let's assume there are in fact 3 anyway, because we don't know for sure.

[Sili Quirrels]

 

Lynching dice is just kind of safe. He isn't really helping us. He's a liability.

This is a bad look for you. The correct play is ALWAYS to lynch scum here. If you were going to lynch Dice, it had to be the day he made his claim.

 

I was exhausted the day he made his claim, and hadn't ran the numbers. I might have advocated his lynch if I knew we were going to be in this spot.

 

Thankfully, there is no reason we can't lynch him still. It should cost us nothing.

 

If you have a 100% this person is scum, I'm all ears, but until then Dice is a safe lynch and therefore a better lynch than people who might flip town.

[Yates]

Yates makes perfect sense but is so damn believable when he interacts on thread.

Why do you do this when I'm offline? Seriously?

 

Also, remind me to ask you about the statement you made about mafia Yates and perfect kills. Because I don't think the NK's in this game have been particularly optimal. For example, MrsClov is still breathing.

[Yates]

I strongly doubt mafia is 2 players, but if so, let's assume there are in fact 3 anyway, because we don't know for sure.

Oh I agree. But you can't make assumptions about why things did or didn't happen with that assumption. You only use the 3 scum assumption to influence how you treat the lynch. See what I mean?

[Yates]

If you have a 100% this person is scum, I'm all ears...

If I had a 100% this person is scum, I would have claimed seer already.

 

Which reminds me of something else - remind me to respond to the Yates/Darthe seer cover thing in the AM. I need sleep.

[Sili Quirrels]

 

Yates makes perfect sense but is so damn believable when he interacts on thread.

Why do you do this when I'm offline? Seriously?

 

Also, remind me to ask you about the statement you made about mafia Yates and perfect kills. Because I don't think the NK's in this game have been particularly optimal. For example, MrsClov is still breathing.

 

Beyond being a cleared townie there's really no reason for mafia to kill Mrs. Clov imo.

[Sili Quirrels]

 

I strongly doubt mafia is 2 players, but if so, let's assume there are in fact 3 anyway, because we don't know for sure.

Oh I agree. But you can't make assumptions about why things did or didn't happen with that assumption. You only use the 3 scum assumption to influence how you treat the lynch. See what I mean?

 

I'm not actually treating a wagon like there's definitely only 2 scum. All I'm saying about day 1 is I bet either a) scum couldn't coordinate or b) scum didn't care to coordinate for whatever reason.

 

on Eldrick, I do assume a little there are 3 mafia overall, but I don't think that hurts my assessment of the situation.

[Yates]

 

I strongly doubt mafia is 2 players, but if so, let's assume there are in fact 3 anyway, because we don't know for sure[b/].

Oh I agree. But you can't make assumptions about why things did or didn't happen with that assumption. You only use the 3 scum assumption to influence how you treat the lynch. See what I mean?

 

Sorry. I don't think was clear. I agreed with the underlined. I still think there are probably only 2 scum. Especially if scum had an Evil Priest and we don't have a seer. The Lovers were straight up negative utility for Town and Vig could have [and did] also hurt Town. If the last scum is BP or mirror, we would have already lost with a 3rd scum.

[Sili Quirrels]

 

 

I strongly doubt mafia is 2 players, but if so, let's assume there are in fact 3 anyway, because we don't know for sure[b/].

Oh I agree. But you can't make assumptions about why things did or didn't happen with that assumption. You only use the 3 scum assumption to influence how you treat the lynch. See what I mean?

 

Sorry. I don't think was clear. I agreed with the underlined. I still think there are probably only 2 scum. Especially if scum had an Evil Priest and we don't have a seer. The Lovers were straight up negative utility for Town and Vig could have [and did] also hurt Town. If the last scum is BP or mirror, we would have already lost with a 3rd scum.

 

I made the mental leap and knew what you were talking about.

 

At least one power role hasn't claimed yet.

[Yates]

Beyond being a cleared townie there's really no reason for mafia to kill Mrs. Clov imo.

That's exactly what I'm saying. You are wrong. And I think a lot of people left in the game think this way. Optimal scum kill would have been MrsClov on N2 for two reasons:

1. You never believe a vig/doc/cop when they say they are 1x. You ALWAYS ensure they are lying and can't hurt you in the future.

2. She made herself Innocent Child. That makes her unlynchable. You need to take out unlynchable Townies at every opportunity or the game gets out of hand with too many cleared.

[Sili Quirrels]

I feel like entertaining 2 scum and a survivor in a 14 player game is aidsy.

[Yates]

I feel like entertaining 2 scum and a survivor in a 14 player game is aidsy.

3 scum, a survivor, a vig, and Lovers would be aidsy for Town.

[Sili Quirrels]

 

Beyond being a cleared townie there's really no reason for mafia to kill Mrs. Clov imo.

That's exactly what I'm saying. You are wrong. And I think a lot of people left in the game think this way. Optimal scum kill would have been MrsClov on N2 for two reasons:

1. You never believe a vig/doc/cop when they say they are 1x. You ALWAYS ensure they are lying and can't hurt you in the future.

2. She made herself Innocent Child. That makes her unlynchable. You need to take out unlynchable Townies at every opportunity or the game gets out of hand with too many cleared.

 

At some point Mrs. Clov dies, but probably not n2 specifically because she's a cleared. But whether she dies last night, this night, or two nights from now doesn't really matter unless Scum run out of cleareds to kill (which won't happen any time soon).

 

@point 1, I'm pretty sure the way she interacted with Darthe when he approached her claim made her certified 1x Vig. I know I believed her. I think everyone else did too. I don't think you skip killing a strong player like Nyn or Verbal to instead kill an outted 95% of the time vanilla like Mrs. Clov.

[Sili Quirrels]

 

I feel like entertaining 2 scum and a survivor in a 14 player game is aidsy.

3 scum, a survivor, a vig, and Lovers would be aidsy for Town.

 

If that's all there is. But Clov has yet to claim.

[Sili Quirrels]

Speaking of which the full list is:

 

Beloved

2 Lovers

Arthur

Darthe

Motivator, Gifter

Sili

[Sili Quirrels]

I really don't know if you as scum would tell me there are 2 scum if there were in fact only 2 scum. I think it'd depend on your mood and if you wanted to lie.

[Sili Quirrels]

 

If you have a 100% this person is scum, I'm all ears...

If I had a 100% this person is scum, I would have claimed seer already.

 

Then don't sit there and tell me the optimal play is to lynch [not Dice] when [not Dice] if town will likely lose us the game.

[Eldrick4221]

I believe I've already made my stance on survivor clear. Your numbers make sense.

 

[v]Unvote[/v]

 

[v]Dice[/v]

[dicetosser1]

eldrick with all the vote hoping u do you arnt clear at all.

[Sili Quirrels]

I believe I've already made my stance on survivor clear. Your numbers make sense.

 

[v]Unvote[/v]

 

[v]Dice[/v]

Do you... not care about explaining yourself properly or something?

[Eldrick4221]

On this I am. I don't trust survivors. Even ones that say they want to win with town. I have yet to see a survivor win with town. My vote was on you before the Leelou test. I got distracted by your comment to Sili. I agree with you, and no longer trust her as town, but I'm also not comfortable with there being a survivor.

 

If there are only 2 mafia, I think it's Darthe and Sili. I will move my vote to them, if that's where the consensus goes, as I would rather lynch a mafia.

[Sili Quirrels]

So I'm at something like this in regards to the suspects on the table.

 

Darthe - will say aidsy stuff, and when caught, brush it off as stream of consciousness or planned.

 

Eldrick -  hasn't built a single case or made one significant read, and is scum. It's not like he doesn't know how to play the game. He does, he just isn't playing a villager's game. And he hasn't been lynched yet, so that's something.

 

Thane - aafk for several real life days, and rubbish content besides. Clov put him high on his list though.

 

Yates - entertains aidsy 2 scum conversation at lylo when several villagers have yet to claim, presumably to prevent locking eldrick in as scum. Also entertains 2x voter as town planned to clear Leelou in a 'smart' way. Apart from that he's had a pretty soft game too, so likely scum candidate imo.

 

Dice - is confirmed not town, so I don't care what we do with him, and he should know I don't care because I'm town and I don't need him to win. 90-95% he's survivor. Other times he's something else.

[Sili Quirrels]

So I'm at something like this in regards to the suspects on the table.

 

Darthe - will say aidsy stuff, and when caught, brush it off as stream of consciousness or planned.

 

Eldrick -  hasn't built a single case or made one significant read, and is scum. It's not like he doesn't know how to play the game. He does, he just isn't playing a villager's game. And he hasn't been lynched yet, so that's something.

 

Thane - aafk for several real life days, and rubbish content besides. Clov put him high on his list though.

 

Yates - entertains aidsy 2 scum conversation at lylo when several villagers have yet to claim, presumably to prevent locking eldrick in as scum. Also entertains 2x voter as town planned to clear Leelou in a 'smart' way. Apart from that he's had a pretty soft game too, so likely scum candidate imo.

 

Dice - is confirmed not town, so I don't care what we do with him, and he should know I don't care because I'm town and I don't need him to win. 90-95% he's survivor. Other times he's something else.

[Eldrick4221]

My prior reasoning for putting Sili into the town pile was because of the vig cover. At the time, it didn't make sense for a scum to do that. After today's activity, I asked myself "Why would scum cover for a vig?" To look town, of course. It gives the actual vig comfort in the fact that they don't need to reveal.

 

You had me convinced you were town because of that. I'm not anymore.

[Sili Quirrels]

My prior reasoning for putting Sili into the town pile was because of the vig cover. At the time, it didn't make sense for a scum to do that. After today's activity, I asked myself "Why would scum cover for a vig?" To look town, of course. It gives the actual vig comfort in the fact that they don't need to reveal.

 

You had me convinced you were town because of that. I'm not anymore.

That's not logic to say I'm scum. That is logic to say I'm not necessarily town.

 

Shrug.