[Advanced] Arthurian Mafia

[MrsClov]

This is where I'm at off the top of my head: 

 

Clov- covered for Seer, outted Dice as Survivor. Has been on both Lily and Barm's lynches

 

Thane- Not been on either lynch

 

Sili- Voted for Darthe Day 1, Voted for Eldrick day 2

 

Nyn- At this point I feel it's safe to say she can not be aligned with Darthe. I can't see them being town/town any more. Either she's scum and Darthe is town or Darthe is scum and she's town. Aside from Darthe votes, has only voted for Zashara. Firmly only going to vote for Darthe until one of them is dead.

 

Leelou- Also voted Darthe day 1 and 2. 

 

Darthe- Has been the lynch train both days, and never went through. Appears to be trying to help find scum.

 

Me- Vig

 

Yates- Doing vote analaysis.

 

Eldrick- ???

 

Dice- Survivor? 

 

I think it's pretty safe to say that Nyn and Darthe can't be aligned. I don't see this fight continuining if it was town/town. I feel it's pretty safe to say that if she's town, Darthe is scum. If Darthe is town, she's scum. Here recently I've felt like Darthe has done more in the thread than she has, as she's just firmly been sitting her vote on him. Before that she firmly sat her vote on Zashara. Nothing wrong with that, but I think we definitely need to settle Darth v. Nyn. I'll give her that it's interesting that neither lynches on Darthe went through, but at this point their feud is a distraction to the game. 

 

I could see Clov being a deep wolf here. I was kind of questionable of him in the beginning of the game. Should do an ISO of him. I thought he was more town than not because of how he defended me, which I shouldn't have let affect my judgement. Typically I have only seen him defend me when he's town. He's been on both Lily and Barm's lynches. Covered for seer? Not out of the realm of possibilities for him as scum. If he's scum, I don't think it's going to lead us to who his scum teammates are. I could see him with Nyn or Darthe fairly easily. I know he went at Darthe a little bit Day 1, but he's strung up his own teammate for a lynch before.

 

Thane- I still don't have many notes on him. I do think it's important to note he wasn't on a lynch for either end of day. Not sure if that really means much though  as we pushed Barm's lynch through with a lot of time left on it.

 

Yates is looking more and more town to me. I like the work he's been doing and the things he's been pointing out. If I decide to move people into categories other than null he'll likely be in town, barring something ridiculous. 

 

Dice is apparently the survivor, and if that's the case I don't have a problem letting him live for now. I think we have bigger fish to fry at the moment. 

 

Everyone else, I'll get thoughts on you later. 

[Darthe]

Strong opinion so far as I care to admit.

[MrsClov]

Good grief there's a crap ton of redundancy in my post. Sorry for that.

[Yates]

Actually now works since it may draw the NK and I douvt my word will be enough. Eldrick is town and I douvt that these were all town trains. Clov is almost guaranteed mafia here.

Darthe, is that a fact or an opinion?

This still needs answering...

[Clovdyx]

Okay, well, prior to the flip I had him as "lock scum/lock hero".  If Barm flipped mafia, I would have written Eldrick off completely; you were in a position where you were a VERY viable lynch candidate IMO, so Scum!Eldrick didn't have too much motivation to suddenly move from somebody he's literally spent the entire game pushing onto somebody he literally hadn't said anything about.  In his most recent reads list, he had Barm as completely null and had previously questioned why everybody was voting Barm.  It COULD have been a bus, but it didn't seem like he had a ton of reason to do so.

 

But Barm didn't flip mafia.  He flipped town.  So now I'm asking myself, why would Town!Eldrick suddenly move from somebody he had been pushing consistently throughout the game to somebody he hadn't really addressed.  This was after Eldrick ISO'ed him yesterday afternoon because, again, he couldn't see why people were pushing Barm; he still ended up neutral on him.

[Clovdyx]

Okay. I'm starting to think I may have dismissed Clov's theory too quickly...

Well, two of my top three scum candidates - Eldrick and Barm -  are on it, so from my POV scum has already done their work with it.  The third one IS Darthe, and I think we all understand why HE isn't voting that way.  So to answer your question as to why his lynch is stalling, my reads tell me because townies (and apparently one survivor) aren't rushing into it.

 

And based on what I just saw from looking at some old stuff, I think I might have another one.  But we'll see how the rest of the day goes before I make that conclusion.

Only, the third mafia isn't Barm [obviously], it's Dice. Look at the wagons from Day 1 and Day 2.

 

 

This reminds me, I should elaborate on the bold.  

 

What I had seen was how Leelou had been approaching Barm.  Early in the game, she was voting him, seemingly due to inactivity.  She asked Verbal what he thought about Barm's inactivity (this was the 6th), and he said neutral - Leelou moved off immediately.  She said she would move it back to him if he didn't engage and began to push Darthe.   On the 8th, she re-stated that she wasn't getting any good vibes from Barm and wanted Verb's opinion AGAIN.  

 

On the 10th, she asked Yates about him and said she was getting "slightly bad feelz" about him (Barm).

 

On the 11th, Leelou made this post to Nyn.

 

 

 

I would be genuinely surprised if Sili is not town this game. He's not the direction we should be taking today at all.

 

Darthe, Yates and Elrick. The whole wifom speculation small talk between Darthe and Yates looks incredibly fake, btw. I wouldn't put it past neither of them to screw around with their night choice to manipulate assumptions. Saying it could have been done to frame Darthe is a classic example and I dont buy it.

 

[V]Darthe[/v]

 

Add Barm to your list, but I'm happy to go with Darthe again. 

 

[v]Darthe[/v]

 

 

She had him in dark red on her reads list that day, above the bright red of Yates/Eldrick/Darthe.  That stayed through yesterday.  I understand the placement of him, because she has expressed these feelings throughout the game.  What I don't get is, if she has been SO consistently opposed to him, why was he above Yates and Eldrick - Darthe I can give her, because she's been on him the entire time, too - but more so... why didn't she consider moving on Barm when he was at L-2 or L-1, if he had been rubbing her the wrong way the ENTIRE game? I was confident that if Barm flipped mafia, Leelou would have been a teammate and she was just doing it as distancing.  

 

I suspect this might not be the case, though.  

[Clovdyx]

I'm still keeping Lady Clov and Nyn as strong town reads.  With Sili trying to start a counterwagon with at least one townie as a viable candidate, I actually am pretty comfortable with him as a town read, albeit weaker.  I'll continue to trust Dice.  I don't know what to make of Thane, but I felt pretty good about him before, so I'm not interested in lynching him right now.

 

 

Right now, I'm very comfortable with Eldrick as scum (hence the question to Darthe).  After EoD, I'll take back what I said about them not fitting together, since Eldrick potentially just saved Darthe's life.  Last spot is a cointoss on Leelou or Yates.  I could see Leelou driving a hard bus over Darthe after his early play - and for just being tired of his crap - and Yates has been holding Darthe's hand for most of the game.  And I'm not giving Yates a pass for "being too obvious", because I have no doubts Yates has no issue with blatantly tying himself to a scummate.

[Yates]

I'm not giving Yates a pass for "being too obvious", because I have no doubts Yates has no issue with blatantly tying himself to a scummate.

I also know when to cut bait. I feel like I'm being set up for a turbo lynch [by two players that know mys scum game, no less] if Darthe flips scum and I don't like it.

[Clovdyx]

 

I'm not giving Yates a pass for "being too obvious", because I have no doubts Yates has no issue with blatantly tying himself to a scummate.

I also know when to cut bait. I feel like I'm being set up for a turbo lynch [by two players that know mys scum game, no less] if Darthe flips scum and I don't like it.

 

 

Of everything in that post, THAT - alone - is what you felt was necessary to address?

[Yates]

Of everything in that post, THAT - alone - is what you felt was necessary to address?

Yes. Because it's about me. The rest would just be me speculating about stuff. And I already yelled at Nyn about that.

[Yates]

Also, I really want Darthe to answer that question. It will tell me something about both of you.

[Clovdyx]

Also, I really want Darthe to answer that question. It will tell me something about both of you.

 

He already did.

[Darthe]

So eldrick can only be mafia if I am in your estimation Clov?

[Clovdyx]

So eldrick can only be mafia if I am in your estimation Clov?

 

No, you two could be separate; his play at EoD doesn't really seem to come from what I would expect his town mindset to look like.  But if you ARE mafia, it's hard to imagine that he ISN'T.

[Yates]

 

Also, I really want Darthe to answer that question. It will tell me something about both of you.

 

He already did.

 

Where?

 

@Darthe - is Eldrick Town fact or opinion?

[Clovdyx]

Strong opinion so far as I care to admit.

 

Here.

[Yates]

 

Strong opinion so far as I care to admit.

 

Here.

 

@Darthe - was that in response to Clov's question or to MrsClov's reads list?

[Darthe]

It was response to clovs question

[Yates]

It was response to clovs question

Okay. I misread that then. Thanks.

[Darthe]

Mrs clov I really think you're vig shot is going to be a big deal tonight.

[MrsClov]

Mrs clov I really think you're vig shot is going to be a big deal tonight.

not nearly as much of one as you think...

[Darthe]

okay I am getting pulled in too many directions to be effective so I think what I need to do is take a step back and try and figure things out more objectively. can everyone please lift top to big shots for tonight and bottom too

[Darthe]

Lidt top two

[Darthe]

List dammit

[Sili Quirrels]

In case people haven't noticed, it is 4-3-1 tomorrow.