[Standard] 11/10 Top Tier Vanilla+ Game Thread

[Tommyrod]

Vote Count D5.02:

 

Thane (1): Deslami [#3701]

Tress (1): Thane [#3702]

Dice (1): Pral [#3714]

 

Not Voting (3): Cass, Dice, Tress

 

At the gallows: Thane

 

Reminder: players not voting at EOD will be voting for themselves.

 

[Songstress]

Yeahhhh, so... if you'll excuse me for a moment, me and my tinfoil hat will be in the corner, pointing and laughing in the mirror.  >.<

 

 

  On 11/25/2014 at 2:02 PM, csarmi said:

Everyone please take a stance on what the vig should so.

Claim or not?
Call shot or not?
Whom to shoot?

Do it in your first post or die.

 

1) Since you've clarified that you're not the vig, yes, I think they should claim.  

 

2) I've not done a lot of theoretical analysis of how to play a vig - generally because i hate rolling vig and am more concerned with picking targets than anything else.  What would you say are the advantages and disadvantages of either option?

 

3) If *I* was the vig, I'd holster because I am not at all confident in picking targets.  Since I'm not, I'd say they should shoot their best guess for SK, or second best guess assuming that their first best guess is today's lynch and doesn't pan out.  Or they can shoot me, because I really don't want the responsibility of being alive in the final 3 and having to guess correctly.  I still beat myself up for the last time I fouled that up.

 

 

  On 11/25/2014 at 3:06 PM, csarmi said:

 

TressLove: please don't be the SK
 

 

You're in luck, I'm not.

 

  On 11/25/2014 at 5:30 PM, csarmi said:

 

  On 11/13/2014 at 4:22 PM, Songstress said:

K, so.  
 
Yesterday was a big black hole of fatigue and fuzzy head.  I've been doing most of my following along on mobile, and I'm positive I've missed some pages or partial pages in there because I've seen things quoted that I don't remember reading.  I won't have time until the weekend to do a full re-read, and it'll be more useful after a few flips anyway, so I'm gonna try to grab a few quotes that I remembered wanting to respond to as I read them and get a semi-explained reads list out there.   A lot of my early reads are gut feelings, but after almost 3 years of playing I've figured out that my gut feelings normally CAN be backed up by evidence when I have the time and motivation to go back and do ISOs.  My thread recall is pretty much crap since I stopped doing the Giant Spreadsheet of Doom, but the impressions the individual posts leave accumulate into a nebulous read.
 
Quotes first, reads list to follow.  BRB.

Tress, you are normally very annoyed when you don't have enough time on your hands to make observations and reads that grab the big picture and show insight and logic. In other words, you are a maximalist when it comes to towning.

Would you agree with that chatacterization?
Do you believe it is different this game and if so, why?
Would you care to profile our serial killer? This type of analysis is kind of your thing. Possible approaches:

Alive players (why them)
Night kills (why them and why then)
Thread presence (activity level)

 

 

Csarmi darlin', I play how I play.  What it looks like in any given game depends on many factors.  I post when I have time and something to say, and what I post depends mostly on what I notice that I think needs to be said.  The last couple of games, it's been heavily influenced by how sick I'm feeling, I don't always have the energy to think things through very hard or very thoroughly, and to explain coherently.  Last game, I got a little extra emo, this game I've tried very hard not to be (I have to admit that was in large part because of DPR and Kivam playing, and not wanting to play like a jerk in front of them - instead I get to play like a paranoid idiot).

 

As for profiling the SK, I really don't see why you think it's up my alley unless you're thinking of Avengers.  In the Avengers game, we had tons of claimed roles and claimed night actions that I tried to sort out the best I could, but nobody's been claiming their kills here, so it's all kinda guesswork.  The only kill that we know 100% was the SK's responsibility was Hallia (although Yates was kind of a safe bet for SK-targeted) and for the life of me I don't understand why they would have picked Hally over you. 

 

 

  On 11/25/2014 at 5:42 PM, csarmi said:

 

  On 11/18/2014 at 5:14 PM, Songstress said:

Just for grins, let's do this first... 
 

  On 11/13/2014 at 5:09 PM, Songstress said:

Fairly comfortable town reads:
 
DesLami 
Kivam - Wolf N1 Vig - Lynched D2
WWWwombat - Seer - Killed N2
Nyn
 
 
Townish vibe:
 
Yates. - Wolf Godfather - Killed N1
Rags
Thane
 
Null/mixed/no clue:
 
Dice
AJ
Leelou - Vanillager - Killed N1
Verbal32 / Barmacral Hydra - Vanillager - Killed N2
Cass 
Stelio Kontos - Jailkeeper - Killed N1
Hallia
 
Mildly uncomfortable:
 
Arsis/Pral
Krakalakachkn - Wolf N2 Vig - Killed N2
Darthe
 
No specifics for these guys, just a gut level discomfort that I can probably go back and make less nebulous this weekend.
 
Top scum leans:
 
Sili Quirrels - Vanillager - Lynched D1
DreadPirateRoberts - Vanillager - Killed N2

 
Good God, I'm on a roll.  At least one of my top town picks was town.
 
Revised version to come later.

Revise this. How do you feel now?

 

 

 

How I feel now is it could be any of you, although I think Cass is the least likely.

 

DesLami - the fact that Hallia was killed instead of you guys makes me completely and unutterably paranoid.  If it wasn't for that I wouldn't even question you, for what it's worth.

 

Pral - looks pretty townie to me.  He is also known to have excellent instincts as a vig, so if the town vig wasn't responsible for hitting the two mafia that were night killed, I could see him being a very savvy SK. 

 

Dice - as previously stated, he seems to be pretty concerned with defending and explaining his activity level, which he knows is a huge scum tell for him.  

 

Thane - Des made a pretty good point about Thane, IMO, and Thane and Dice are the two lowest on my list right now.

 

The vig claiming would narrow down my suspect list (unless it's Cass, of course).  

[Cass]

I am not the Vig.

 

Also, ha! I may be unsure on you Tress, but if you're feeling paranoid you're not alone ><.

 

*Points to own previous tinfoiling on the SK matter, joins Tress in the corner with her own tinfoil hat*

[Cass]

@Tress - in the interests of comparison, could you please link me to some Town posts of yours in another game?

 

And some scum/SK ones if you have any pls?

[csarmi]

The vig should shoot. No disadvantage numbers wise. It makes no difference whether we end up 3-1 or 2-1 tomorrow (if we mislynch).

 

Calling the shot would mean that if the target survives its the SK. So it might make sense.

 

SK will probably kill the vig as that's a confirmed townie.

[Songstress]

  On 11/26/2014 at 5:04 AM, Cass said:

@Tress - in the interests of comparison, could you please link me to some Town posts of yours in another game?

 

And some scum/SK ones if you have any pls?

 

I've never been SK, although I was cult leader once - only time I've ever been 3rd party. (here)

 

Last game I was scum was over a year ago in Lily's Trick or Treat Mafia II.  (here)

 

If you're looking for meta, the most relevant game to this one is Spaceballs in Shayol Ghul, but since I'm not a member I no longer have access to the game thread to link it.  As I explained to Csarmi in my last post, how I play depends on a lot of factors, and I've been off my game the last couple of months.  I honestly shouldn't have signed up for this one in retrospect, but I thought the doctor would find something wrong with me and I'd be on the road to feeling better well before now.  Any other town game isn't necessarily going to look like this one for me, because normally I have more energy and more mental acuity than I've had lately.

[Cass]

Thanks Tress, I'll check those links out tonight. In the meantime, I've stolen a corner desk at work and I'm gonna go ahead and claim my potential crazy right now.

 

[v]##Deslarmi[/v]

 

Yes, maybe I'm tinfoiling, maybe it's someone else - I still intend to read up on the others tonight, but goshdarnit, these guys are still at the top of my SK list, they ping, and it hasn't got any better since the start of this day, especially since they (as a hardclaimed Vig and obvious Town) didn't die from the SK kill and especially not now that they tell us you're not actually the Vig.

 

Here's the things that I find sus:

 

- When people first started talking about SK, Des suggested quite strongly that there was no point in talking/hypothesising about who was the SK

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

  On 11/14/2014 at 2:28 PM, Despothera said:

@Kivam: I think that argument in general is as useless as an extra butthole on my elbow. Killing the SK is all fine and dandy, but the SK isn't exactly going to flare up a sign that says "Lynch me! I'm the SK!" so hunting for them would be basically more dubious than hunting mafia.

 

Let's find not-town and burn them with fire till they're dead, kk? Good.

 

 

 

- They then, over several posts, made scattered FoS 'such and such could be SK' type posts. It stunk of diversion.

 

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  On 11/15/2014 at 1:04 PM, Despothera said:

I could TOTALLY see Kivam being the SK and pushing that we need to SK hunt so much on thread LAWLZ

Then again I could sorta see DPR being the SK as well- would explain why he appeared so scummy even tho it seems unlikely he's teammates with Yates (and I don't think "appearing scummy" is that subjective here, his pushing of Sili D1 and general evasiveness is imo pretty scummy)

 

 

  On 11/15/2014 at 6:44 PM, Despothera said:

Then again, if he WAS SK, I prob would've been his first target lol

 

 

  On 11/16/2014 at 2:38 PM, Despothera said:

@Kivam: nothing I said there is actually wrong. It IS more dubious to hunt a SK than hunt scum. Sure, you can look for someone "playing in the middle" or slightly too worried about self-preservation, but there will often be multiple people who would arguably fit in that category. Hell, you yourself would fit in that category atm.

 

  On 11/15/2014 at 9:10 PM, TheRagnarok said:

 

  On 11/15/2014 at 8:43 PM, Despothera said:

 

  On 11/15/2014 at 7:56 PM, TheRagnarok said:

 

  On 11/15/2014 at 6:43 PM, Despothera said:

 

  On 11/15/2014 at 5:45 PM, TheRagnarok said:

Guys, DPR being a condescending douche ITT doesn't make him scum. And the way Yates tried to push him makes him look good.

I agree this makes him less likely to be mafia. He COULD still be SK however.

What? No! Being as this is evidently his SOP, it has no bearing on his alignment whatsoever.

No the condescending douche thing doesn't, sorry if that wasn't clear
He could be SK cause of his really fake looking push on Sili yesterday about "evidence", his talking about seer cover more than anyone even while fosing those talking about it, and general evasiveness when people engage him
The crazy thing is, I kind of don't WANT him to be scum here, cause were actually being semi reasonable to one another today, and if he IS scum, I could see him devolving the game or painting me out as an emo psycho mess again just to keep town from lynching him. If he's town I'd rather that became more obvious through other means.
Unfortunately, he "doesn't want to give the opposition talking points" and I guess that means he's gonna stay in his snake oil salesman outfit and continue being cryptic the rest of the game

Oh I gotcha now.

And if you're town, aren't you supposed to hope people are town?

Des, is it just me or is something different about you this game?

 

 

and more recently (p. 165):

 

 

  On 11/20/2014 at 1:05 PM, Despothera said:

I don't think Dice is mafia. I think Yates was trying to picket him.

I DO think he might be SK. The way he initially tried to act like Yates "cleared" him, and his posts today generally kind of stink.

If given preference over lynch order today tho, mine would prob look like Tress>Dice>Rags>Cass

 

 

 

 

And, again it's even more 'interesting' when you consider these from csarmi (statements that suggest -twice- he'd play SK as 'Town':

 

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  On 11/16/2014 at 1:14 PM, csarmi said:

Also in a game with 4 shots per day I'd be choosing BPV as SK 100% of the time and play pro-town.

 

 

  On 11/18/2014 at 6:45 PM, csarmi said:

 

  On 11/18/2014 at 6:42 PM, Thane Vakarian said:

SK = anti-town = wolf

that's the reasoning to follow Csarmi

SK has no team. I think I'd play it the same way as I do play town. That's what scares me.

 

 

 

 

- They've played strong 'Town' but they've also seemed a bit all over the shop. As I said before, their early votes confused me/didn't make much sense. I'm not sure all of this can be explained by the 'We're just a crazy hydra' type defence.

(content copy from post #2487 for easy read)

 

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Des says he wouldn’t like Town to lynch Sili Day 1. Is really pushing DPR.

 

Votes DPR

 

Changes Vote to Kiv because no reason (other than "no one wants to obvscum DPR…")

 

Votes DPR when Wom says he’s open to a lynch

 

BUT THEN, when Wom asks who should be shot with two theoretical bullets (interesting), responds DPR and (this came from nowhere) ??DARTHE??

 

I missed where exactly it happened, but this vote counter has them down after that point voting against Dice

 

Two posts later, it's almost EoD and now they're voting against Pray

 

Still pushing that Sili is innocent Town and then claiming they're Seer and N0 view was Stelio Town.

 

 

*This may be null/normal for Des/Csarmi as Town, but I don't understand the logic of voting for so many different players when you are pushing so hard against one particular player (DPR) as hard as they/Des was the entire time.

 

 

- They claimed Vig after I suggested they were sus/made them my pick for SK (Post #2335). Maybe it's 'normal' but the wording was slightly dodgy.

 

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  On 11/20/2014 at 5:05 PM, csarmi said:

Hard claim: we are NOT the even night vigilante.

 

 

  On 11/20/2014 at 5:09 PM, csarmi said:

Vigilantes attention: plan your play carefully. Think about what your role (named townie and shooting power) is good for. Consider your play thoroughly.

Vanillagers attention: don't fake claim vig ever. Don't claim your role unless necessary.

 

 

 

 

 

- Them potentially being Vig was the only thing that made me really unsure on my read of them as SK. 

 

 

- They say now that claiming SK was a test Darthe failed, but that 'explanation' pings and it sounds like waffle/I don't think it makes sense

 

  

Especially when you consider that these posts from csarmi suggest they're continuing playing Vig beyond the initial 'test' and even after Darthe is dead:

 

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After Nyn was killed

  On 11/21/2014 at 2:15 PM, csarmi said:

Oops.

Sorry Nyn.

 

- Which I read as 'apologising' for an incorrect Vig shot.

 

 And this morning, after Darthe was killed

 

  On 11/25/2014 at 1:53 PM, csarmi said:

You dare leave me alive?!

You is gonna pay.

 

Which I read as 'challenging' the SK for leaving the Vig alive... which at best (if I'm wrong) is Csarmi being odd, and at worst is Csarmi still continuing to play Vig, and then Des later explaining that the whole Vig thing was just something they did which tripped up Darthe.

 

 

 

They also have other random pinging dodginess going on. Which isn't concrete at all but still pings. Like they never answered this, and I thought it was strange in the first place, from 'Town'

 

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  On 11/17/2014 at 7:25 AM, csarmi said:

 

  On 11/17/2014 at 7:25 AM, Cass said:

 

  On 11/17/2014 at 7:13 AM, csarmi said:

4) Something of a concern for me is that lots of players knoq my meta quite well and none of them seems to point out the obvious.

Not knowing your meta - what is the 'obvious'?

I wanna see if some people point it out. Check some town gamea of mine for more info.

 

 

 

 

- There has been an awful lot more referencing planning and private QT talk between them as the game is starting to wrap up.

I would have thought, if they were simple Town (not Vig/not SK), most strategy would be ok out in the open, considering that Town now outnumbers SK 5:1.

 

 

To be fair, I realise I may be wrong. If they're genuinely Town, then maybe I've just misread and tunneled. But I don't have suspicions this strong about anybody else. I do need to read up again on everybody, but at this point my gut says all of the things that slightly ping about the rest of you are nowhere near as specific or concrete.

 

 

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List o' suspicion - pretty much in this order

 

Tress - Relatively inactive, makes a lot of excuses, still comes up with coherent arguments/good reads (except for me being Wolf :P). Possibly all true, possibly clever SK.

 

Thane - Buddied a lot in early game, was set up as Wolves (potentially because they knew most people tend to read him scummy and therefore he'd make a clever decoy). Changes votes very easily.

 

Pral - Still haven't caught up/really understood the whole 'Arsis-Pral is sus' saga. Wary because relatively quiet and although his larger posts seem genuine, I'm not sure that they all make sense. Not sure if that's deliberate or unintentional.

 

 Dice - More inactive than I expected and hasn't been charging off with accusations like he himself says is a Town tell. Tone/attitude comes across as the Dice I 'know'.

 

 

 

Unless my re-read turns up something pretty specific on anybody else, I'm gonna run with this *nods*. At least we know now they're not actually the Vig.

[Cass]

  On 11/26/2014 at 6:56 AM, Cass said:

[v]##Deslarmi[/v]

 

Yes, maybe I'm tinfoiling, maybe it's someone else - I still intend to read up on the others tonight, but goshdarnit, these guys are still at the top of my SK list, they ping, and it hasn't got any better since the start of this day, especially since they (as a hardclaimed Vig and obvious Town) didn't die from the SK kill and especially not now that they tell us you're not actually the Vig.

 

 *they're

[csarmi]

Lol.

[csarmi]

We never claimed Vig.

 

I claimed i wasn't even night vig specifically for tactical reasons (gives the odd night vig a safe shot if needed and soft hints).

 

The Nyn post was deliberate. I didn't intend it as a reaction test per se, rather a hint. You can call it a soft vig cover. It couldn't hurt town cause the odd vig would never counter on an even day and cannot mis-shoot us on an even night.

 

It can't be a breadcrumb for a later claim as we would never claim vig here, in fact, no one would get to fake claim it without surrendering the game. You're a logical thinker and you'll see how it was always going to be the day for claiming up (the last possible mislynch is the time to do it).

 

There was a chance that the sk/scum buys it and goes after us (profit) and that the reactions would be helpful (as Des explained).

[Cass]

^Pings

 

:p

[csarmi]

So no you are never going to get us mislynched this game. If you are the SK, sure, get at us if you will but it's a bad call as you will see.

 

As for why we are alive (@Tress), yea we are wondering too. I would have nightkilled our hydra for sure not only now but earlier as well. We had some seer equity and vig equity too not to mention we are vocal, gamesolving and getting scummers lynched.

 

We are debating th0at in our QT whether its pure wifom, an attempt to get us mislynched, the SK feels they have us pocketed or they just felt strongly that we are nilla and wanted to pr hunt.

[hazelkrs1]

[Cass]

Why not debate that in the thread? Clearly the rest of Town is/should be wondering the same thing... Debating it here makes more sense (if you are Town).

[hazelkrs1]

  On 11/26/2014 at 7:21 AM, Despothera said:

[hazelkrs1]

  On 11/26/2014 at 7:22 AM, Cass said:

Why not debate that in the thread? Clearly the rest of Town is/should be wondering the same thing... Debating it here makes more sense (if you are Town).

 

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[hazelkrs1]

@Everyone: with Hallia gone we are clearest townies in the game. A vote on us is a vote for derpness.

 

Just say NO to derpness

[Cass]

Lol.

 

Should I elaborate that I also think it would make more sense to debate/discuss that 'why aren't we killed' theory here, in the hopes you could trip the SK up? (Cos I think that makes sense too...)

[csarmi]

Ie. You have the events wrong. The purple is NOT a vig claim. It claims we are either vanilla or odd night. No more, no less. Think about how and why that helps town.

 

The Nyn post WAS meant just as you read it. Could be interpreted as we were vig shooting Nyn (btw i would nevet shoot Nyn there. There is a reason i was vague to Darthe in my answer as i didn't want to let that known but yes i would trust my hydra there and he was SURE of Nyn being town).

 

We kept up the mask last day.

 

Today i wasn't gonna let the mask drop until it was sure that we will go with the vig claiming (surely you can see why thats pro town... Not dropping the potential cover off the real vig).

 

FYI i am pretty sure who that is and i would have shot them as SK. Ever though about why Dice wasn't vigged on the last odd night?

[hazelkrs1]

Discussing why we weren't NKed is pure wifom and speculation. If you don't realize how absurdly town we are by now, you won't believe us after we theorize on why we're still alive. End of story.

[Cass]

Like I said, the 'vig claim' has no bearing on why I'm reading you as the SK. It simply confused the issue for a while. It's all the other things that make me think you ping.

[hazelkrs1]

As for "tripping the SK up", days are limited now. Wasting time defending ourselves when we SHOULD be LOCK CLEAR for every remaining townie is an immense waste of time and only gives the SK more opportunity to stay hidden or seek cover in the midst of a pointless discussion.

 

Cass, leave your vote on us and waste the opportunity to catch scum, OR help catch the final scummer whilst staying alive the whole time like a young GOATlet at the start of a great and promising mafia career. Your choice.

[Cass]

Ok, if you're absurdly Town, and not SK playing Town, give us what you have on Tress/the rest of us. Something specific to SK would help.

[hazelkrs1]

  On 11/26/2014 at 7:38 AM, Cass said:

Like I said, the 'vig claim' has no bearing on why I'm reading you as the SK. It simply confused the issue for a while. It's all the other things that make me think you ping.

"All the other things" are still not conclusive or meaningful in any sense and again, us defending our slot at this juncture is ludicrous.

 

We're town. Remove your vote.

[hazelkrs1]

  On 11/26/2014 at 7:40 AM, Cass said:

Ok, if you're absurdly Town, and not SK playing Town, give us what you have on Tress/the rest of us. Something specific to SK would help.

What Pray said about SK trying to "play in the middle" is correct, that's where you'll normally find SK's @ endgame. Early on they're usually noncommittal and don't want early attention.

 

Still think Pray is LOCK CLEAR btw. Think you're fairly close as well since SK going @ Salami right now in that manner would be lolarious.

 

I was thinking either Thane or Tress today. I already laid out some of my reasoning on Thane, but in a nutshell, he doesn't seem that genuinely interested in helping to catch scum this game. Tress COULD be town, but eh I've seen things that look off from her for a while, and her lack of progression on reads ITT has made it so that she is NOT outside her scum range. Plus, she COULD be AtEing somewhat here or there. Talks about not going emo a bit too much imo.

 

Dice seemed townie to me before on tone, but eh I could revisit him or do an iso or something. Haven't really seen anjything juicy brought up on him at all really.