[Standard] 11/10 Top Tier Vanilla+ Game Thread

[csarmi]

I called veto on Tress lynch.

 

As for Dice, we wanted to lynch him.

[hazelkrs1]

What's your read on my EoD post then, if not more decisive and rambling stream of consciousness?

I DONT CARE ABOUT YOUR EOD POST

 

I'm giving you my feel for your game in general of late. You seem to be scrambling to have it attributed to "noob" behavior rather than scummy behavior.

 

You're not responding well atm.

[csarmi]

Focus on scumhunting rather tthan defending.

[Cass]

Ok, I'll make you a deal: Stop using my noobie self-consciousness as the major 'scummy' thing about me and I'll stop trying to explain why it's still Town.

 

That way, we can avoid the null discussion, and get on with finding real scum.

[csarmi]

Despo please read her EOD post and tell me how it makes you feel.

 

I'm off to exercise.

[Cass]

It's not gonna help that the most recent player I've been reading over is you 

[hazelkrs1]

I called veto on Tress lynch.

 

As for Dice, we wanted to lynch him.

To be fair, I kinda voted Dice more because Rags didn't seem that scummy to me after considering him again. I seriously liked his spew analysis in the midst of antitown discussions.

 

Pray pointed out a flaw in my reasoning on Dice, but I never got a chance to switch votes or start another train.

 

Also to be fair, I'm kinda glad Csarmi vetoed the Tress lynch in a way. Coulda been I was getting stuck in a tunnel.

[Darthe]

Okay so just some sorta rambly thoughts from last few pages-

 

So first off AJ and Nyn were by biggest townreads, so sucks seeing them go. Wah wah I know, but really, that seriously hurts my POE. Since they're gone, I'm now going to roll with Pray and Dice as my top townies actually. Pray by a long shot, he's towntelling all over the place, he's LOCK CLEAR. Dice is a recent tone read... but for some reason my gut is telling me strongly to stick with that read. Plus, he DID seem likely to be town because of Yates' spew earlier in the game, so yeah. The crazy thing is I want to add Thane to this group as well, I just feel he seems to be legitimately trying to figure stuff out. He isn't hedging tho when I would expect scum!Thane to at this point either, he's going out on limbs, etc.

 

The crazy thing is the name that's NOT on that list, and I hate it but well, I would have expected with two antitown kills last night, one of them would have gone on the cop clear. Her activity has also not been good at all lately, making me worried she's a GFSK that is going to coast on her cleared name now. Look, it's tinfoil, but well it can't really be avoided imo. Wouldn't lynch her today but I can't quite add her to the POE.

 

Someone I am switching gears on a lot is Cass. She has been dropping some BIG TIME scumtells lately. A lot of whyme fryme (for Cass: whyme fryme is when someone seems to get overly defensive about being focused on - "Why me?" so it's likely because they are more worried about self-preservation than actually helping town, so fry them), her reads kind of split all over the place (I don't mean she's inconsistent per se, she's just making too big a deal about kind of half-suspecting almost EVERYONE), but the biggest thing I saw from her that made me think she might be scum is when she quoted a couple of Wombat posts and asked if they were implying to shoot AJ... not only was that a TERRIBLE conclusion to make off those posts, it also REEKED of opportunism. Could have been PR directing too. Then there's her VT claim, the way she dropped it initially was scummy, the way she kept trying to reinforce how "VT" she was was scummier, and the way she wifom-defended her claim was worst ("would Manbat have let me claim VT like that?"). There's also a small thing but might as well mention it - she told Nyn "good shooting" after Nyn flipped, but town wouldn't necessarily know she shot well... seemed like a potential TMI slip perhaps...

 

As for Tress, meh I've seen more townie-looking posts from her lately, but kinda worried she just bucked up after being down about her team being down so much at first. And again, I STILL didn't like her vote on D1 or her reaction after I called out said vote. But... fwiw Tress is prob only 3rd on my scum list now.

 

Funny thing is who is first on my scum list now: DERFFFFF. I don't think he's mafia, but I DO think he's SK. This is slightly associative (he's pushing against my top two town reads, also pushed heavily against Nyn who was LOCK CLEAR for me) but his pushes also don't make any sense to me whatsoever, and furthermore he keeps pushing those reads somewhat awkwardly even when his targets respond reasonably or town-like. I'm also remembering his early deflection of me, and general defensiveness and odd tone early on in the game. I think he recovered fairly well by starting to scumhunt ITT, and got lucky in pushing on Kivam D2. Now it seems like he's trying to buddy Csarmi and me a bit, and trying to become town leader to remove himself from suspicion further.

 

STRONG scum read on Derf now.

 

[v]##Darthe[/v]

 

This actually doesn't come as a surprise to me.  Earlier on in this game I talked about how the game was split into two categories, one with active loud players and the other with the quiet and less involved people.  You and I are the only two left from the active group and it is easier to believe that the anti-town has been playing a good game and is hiding in that upper crowd than it does to think that they are buried and you've just missed it.  I had the same thoughts about Nyn and even have said that you would be a late game tinfoil though now that you're a claimed PR that point is thankfully moot.  So, I can understand the turnaround here.  With that said, I am town this game, so you are going to need to buck up your read on me.  

 

AJ was my top town read after Hallia who I still am unwilling to lynch based on the 1/20 chance she has of being anti-town compared to the 1/4 the rest of us have.  Paranoia won't get us anywhere Des and even should you push and get me lynched I'm not going to let you vig or lynch her on that faulty logic and throw away this game.  With that said I don't oppose looking into Hally F3 or the like.  Remember this post in the future.  

 

Nyn played like scum frankly.  You may have somehow town read her but your slot still shot her (apparently) so I don't know what to make of that disconnect if I wasn't on to something.  Besides that we are missing a kill and maf/SK should be hunting one another by now so it's more likely that one of them shot there than AJ unless the scum RB found the SK in which case the SK's game is over tonight anyhow.   

 

Thane I've mostly left alone because he is at the top of my town pile after you/hally.  As for Dice I really have wanted to clear him and the guy has no tact when he is upset.  Yeah, you're almost certainly right about him being town there though I wasn't halfway confident until his earlier post to me about reading and 3445.  The only thing that I still have issue with from him over is how uninvolved he is compared to his new town game.  

 

That leaves us with Tress, Cass, Laya and myself.  IMO it is a crapshoot between Tress and Laya.  Neither has been around much and at this point I'm just sorta going with my gut and picking one.  I think Cass has a lot more wolf equity if you want to flat out ignore the way wolves worked her like wet clay on D1 and D2.  If you count that in it's still too much interaction but that isn't much of a tell this late into the game.  I can see her as wolf more than SK but I also see Cass as a well set late game mislynch.

 

As for my pushes I think they've been damn good this game.  With only one scum left that would have thread history and another anti-town hiding in the conglomerate above it's going to be tight to try and figure things out.  We are bound to be wrong, like everyone else was about Rags.  I couldn't have known that Rags was going to flip town but I thought it and pursued that and though it ultimately didn't pan out I was right there.  I pushed Dice because pushing him is guaranteed to get me the info I wanted from him (and he did sorta tick me off with that "get him off my back" comment tbf).  I frankly think it's weird how you have laya as a town-read at all.  I don't see him doing anything other than mechanical/info based posting which we both know is the easiest thing to fake if you need a bit of cover because it's not interaction oriented and you can't lie about it.  I don't award townie points for that this late in the game.

 

My early game, IMO, wasn't bad.  I got called out by you and that escalated as it usually does but in general I don't think I had issues in early game.  I'd argue that the reason I am still alive in this game is because either I am expected to go full paranoid soon or because you and I arguing usually does in entire threads.  Either way, to clarify, I was scum hunting D1 (caught two that we know of) and regardless of your view of me have kept doing so all game.  I didn't get lucky any more than anyone else on the Kiv wagon D2 since I had him as a scumread D1 and was the person that started the CFD on him (though I did hop off to vote Dice at one point I returned to it shortly after).  Also, I've been a town leader for days.  

 

Now for the circumstantial part.  I may be cocky, cynical, narcissistic, eccentric, maybe even foolish at times but the one thing I am not is dumb.  You know as well as I do that you turning on me at some point was forgone.  Des, if I was the SK and didn't know you to be a vig (which I didn't before today) would I have removed you over Nyn/AJ?  I know this is WIFOM territory but really think about my meta.  I'd certainly drag you along for a bit after that D1 but would I people who were town-reading me or that I knew weren't going to be mafia over you?  Even ignoring the logical mire that sends you down (arguably I would kill Nyn if I thought her scum) I've already made the point several times that this game was divided into groups.  You know my penchant for statistics.  I would never cut into my own cover so completely as has been done this game because if I was anti-town, whether SK or scum, I wouldn't have any wiggle room left in the game.  It would look damn odd to see me at endgame with two or three of Hally/Laya/Dice etc.  Your arguments for me as SK are paranoid and a lot weaker than the arguments you could make for nearly every other living player.  That's not because I'm some wizard at fooling people, it's because I'm town.

[Cass]

Also, when I asked Tress on the previous page what she was making of you now, that was me getting back into scum hunting for real...

 

And you just brushed it off as 'reaching' and tunneled in on me for not focusing on the game 

[Darthe]

Cause we did like your stuff.

 

Darthe help us out here. Despo sensors are on you and iam not confident enough in my townread of you to oppose that.

So get more confident.  Des sensors are on a major lategame yolo tinfoil hailmary while there are shifty characters dressed in all black trying to blend into the shadows in the corner.

 

 

Ok, I'll make you a deal: Stop using my noobie self-consciousness as the major 'scummy' thing about me and I'll stop trying to explain why it's still Town.

 

That way, we can avoid the null discussion, and get on with finding real scum.

 

This is an objectively town Cass post.

[Cass]

@ Darthe

 

You mentioned pre EoD that you had Hally and Deslarmi as clear. These are (currently) my two favourite picks for SK.

 

I don't like the way Hally is hiding in the shadows. I know it's a slim chance, but if she wasn't SK, why wouldn't she come forward and play her little Town heart out? She's basically hands off if that occurs, right? Instead, she's not inputting much at all. I can't help but worry that this is because she's afraid of tripping herself up and getting caught out. And I can't really see any other reason why she isn't joining in.

 

Deslarmi looks dodgy because of the things I mentioned before (see EoD ramble for links), but also, the more I'm looking into it, there's some very poignant points coming from DPR against Des/csarmi early on, especially in relation to Yates. 

 

What's the deal with DPR and Des? Does DPR normally let that affect his game?

 

What, other than their claim of not being the even night vig makes them clear?

 

And how does that actually work? They claim that, and we pretty much don't shoot them til the end?

If we're trying to decide between Hallia and Deslarmi, how do you place that vote?

[hazelkrs1]

Yeah just read EOD post again, and still not impressed Cass. The points you latch on to are so... . Stuff like Darthe's lines at the beginning of his wot's (if I'm not mistaken they're lines from the song Cha Cha Slide, and thus are completely null indicative). Your points against AJ were weak.

 

Also your vote on AJ wasn't great imo. Since it was obvious he wasn't getting lynched that day, it could have just been you not caring about either Rags OR Dice getting lynched. Rags was town and thinking Dice is as well so that kind of noncommittal vote in that scenario is more likely to come from scum imo (for instance Tress's vote on you towards EOD is the same type). Plus, the vote on AJ could have been distancing from the NK- "I would NEVER have voted AJ if I was scum and killed Jim the next night! "

 

I didn't think Rags' post before that was emo AT ALL. That part was just weird.

 

And then you leave yourself JUST enough wiggle room to flip on pretty much any of your town reads. Hedging. Bleurgh.

[hazelkrs1]

That was somewhat of a towny Darthe post. Hrm.

 

##[unvote]

[hazelkrs1]

I'll hopefully get a chance to finally re-read some stuff or do some spew search tonight at work. Been slanking it hard lately.

[Darthe]

@Cass, welcome to playing mafia with Hally, also titled how I learned to be an asshole to Hally over a period of several months.  Hally got (mostly) cleared so now she'll never show up again.  Rather than helping her team and using that to empower her she has become a body bag waiting to either be killed thus removing a useless vote from the game or to show up at endgame with little understanding of the situation and make a vote god knows where, probably against whoever she likes less based on arbitrary factors.  

 

I'd be all over Deslami if not for Des being in gamesolving mode and their claim.  If it weren't true and it hadn't been refuted by now that would be an incredible oversight on someones' part.  You can't get past that claim to make an argument and even if you could I think you'd have a hard time basing an argument on DPR and him (lol) going back and forth D1.

[Cass]

@Des

 

That's a lot of 'could haves' and not a lot of 'actually looks like'.

 

Explain to me why my points against AJ were weak?

 

Yes, ok, my gut was wrong. But aside from my gut, it did seem odd to me that:

• He was Kiv's competing train
• Kiv did not vote for him until the very last minute
• DPR, WOM and VERBARM all had him as their favourite lynch - and they were all Town

My gut was wrong on DPR and Wom because they didn't interact with me the way I thought Town would. But, after their flip, I have to take their thought process into account. Why would they vote against AJ if they didn't think he was scum?

[Darthe]

I'll hopefully get a chance to finally re-read some stuff or do some spew search tonight at work. Been slanking it hard lately.

It'd be nice to hear your thoughts on my D1 EoD analyses.

[Cass]

@Cass, welcome to playing mafia with Hally, also titled how I learned to be an asshole to Hally over a period of several months.  Hally got (mostly) cleared so now she'll never show up again.  Rather than helping her team and using that to empower her she has become a body bag waiting to either be killed thus removing a useless vote from the game or to show up at endgame with little understanding of the situation and make a vote god knows where, probably against whoever she likes less based on arbitrary factors.  

Halli..... 

Help us out?

 

 

I'd be all over Deslami if not for Des being in gamesolving mode and their claim.  If it weren't true and it hadn't been refuted by now that would be an incredible oversight on someones' part.  You can't get past that claim to make an argument and even if you could I think you'd have a hard time basing an argument on DPR and him (lol) going back and forth D1.

Even if what DPR is saying is relevant to the interaction between Des and Yates?

[Cass]

And also, if you were SK, wouldn't you be all "in gamesaving mode" too? Wouldn't that be the best thing for an SK to do?

[Cass]

Is it worth going back to the beginning and multiquoting all the posts/interactions I find odd by/in reference to remaining players?

[Darthe]

Bring up the quotes from DPR if you want to make a case, but I am telling you that unless you happen to be a vig that is going to CC (counterclaim) them (in which case do it, that's a case on its' own) you're wasting your time because we know that there is a vig in this game and they claimed it meaning they're confirmed.  

 

SK could be gamesolving, probably should be.  Doesn't mean they will.  The higher up the townie rung an SK gets the more likely they are to get shot by mafia and vice versa.  It's one of the reasons that I was saying it didn't make sense for Des to suspect me.  I've become a huge target for mafia.

[Cass]

Well that's frustrating. And why didn't mafia/SK kill them when they claimed then??

 

Also, how do you ever get over this paranoia? I'm reading every post as if it's written by mafia - even you. I don't expect you to answer that in a way that will make me feel at ease but *g* This game is insane. At end of game I'd like to know if it's always this hard to figure out towards the end, or if the inactives are just making it harder.

[Darthe]

You don't ever get over the paranoia, you just learn to deal with it (or not) and trust what you know over what you believe.  It's harder in closer games.

 

Mafia/SK have bigger problems than a vig IMO.  They've got each other to worry about and then if they don't take one another out fast they're going to end up in endgame with two mostly confirmed townies.  Town's still in a good spot but it would be great to clear the air today by catching one of them.

[csarmi]

Just a note. Hally was legit busy until a few days ago that I know of.

[csarmi]

Tommy pls update opening post. Ty.