[Standard] Cory vs. Bad Dietary Habits & Laziness Mafia, Mafia Sweep

[csarmi]

Prepares to ignore AJ.

 

#trollSalami

[hazelkrs1]

Okay, legit just spent two hours reading from ~pg 60 and looking as the wagons progressed.

 

My earlier statements about the EOD vote changes probably aren't that great after looking over it again. I think most of those people with the shifting votes are prob townies and I think most of the scum just parked their votes early.

 

Anyway, got 40 quotes in the queue so I'm gonna start piecing them together now.

 

WoTs incoming.

 

And you guys better read them cause I spent more time than I probably should compiling this info all the while a 6am alarm is waiting for me.

TLDR

 

And reported for trying to tell us how to play

[csarmi]

I do have my reservations on AJ, to say the least. That scum claim was bad and the reaction afterwards too.

[Andrej]

I hate you guys.

[Andrej]

Put them at ease.

 

All I ever really need is a flip and then I can start to solve.

[csarmi]

Well Tommy did lead an idiotic push on me last game but I didn't have those vibes then.

 

I'm sticking to my read Despo.

 

I'd probably wait till N2 to shoot him.

[csarmi]

Put them at ease.

 

All I ever really need is a flip and then I can start to solve.

VOS flipped Indy.

[csarmi]

Maybe there's gonna be enough Tress to clear the slot. Not feeling the Tress!clear yet.

 

And no the order isn't Tommy tinfoil -> Tress. More of a gradual degression on Tress and wide swings of thoughts on Tom stopping red with his night push.

[hazelkrs1]

 

 

@Arsis - oh yea I'm reading the thread. You got pushed. So you switched to clever defense mode and started pushing Tommy (who you knew you'd never get lynched especially not day one anyway, so it was a safe way to anti-spew). Tommy pushing literally anyone this D1 clears zero people cause y'all could know (in fact everyone familiar with Tommy could) that he'd be able to direct the train where he wants... Or at least misdirect from where he don't.

 

Your disappearance, your knee-jerk reaction to us after lynch and especially the wagonomics (you needed to be saved... First redirect into csarmi, then take another way out when it don't look strange anymore cause there's a hurry (Vos)... Locks you in as scum.

 

Tommy is scum for when he pushed me, how he pushed me and the way he treated the conversation. So that he always stays clean hand, but cleverly paint me bad with nudges/ keeping the upper hand BY constant aggression. I told Hally I'll be able to read Tommy!scum iffen he pushes us. You kind of need to be in it to understand. I'll call it an informed omgus. This is how I learnt he was Mafia in star wars thrawn.

 

Sickpuppets is actually the weakest read there but we see him legit scummy and he had an easy road into pushing me.

 

Darthe is second strongest after Arsis. He came and threatened to kill me if I don't full claim. Also he was hedging and arrived in the end just in time to do so. This don't look as a town!Darthe appearance around deadline.

 

Who pushed who... Results matter. Wagonomics matter.

 

Fact is Tommy and Darthe was never in danger of getting lynched. Teammate push on them is way in possibility range.

 

OMGCS imo.

 

(Oh My God Csarmi, Stop!)

[csarmi]

90% on that list having 2+ scum.

[csarmi]

Nice acronym.

[hazelkrs1]

You're letting your grumpiness affect your reads FAR too much atm Csarmi. Leave the thread, get some nappytime and a juicebox, and come back later and #reevaluate

[csarmi]

I'd be comfortable with making up a MyndDream on them.

[hazelkrs1]

90% on that list having 2+ scum.

I could see that. Darthe absurdly scummy right now, and SP not far behind

[hazelkrs1]

I'd be comfortable with making up a MyndDream on them.

Kk Rayne

[csarmi]

Nopes not my grump. I got smth there. I think I made this clear enough tho and I'll stop here.

[csarmi]

 

I'd be comfortable with making up a MyndDream on them.

Kk Rayne

Wait I didn't say Rayn level :-)

[Andrej]

Gonna have to break these up into multiple posts.

 

All the deets will be in spoilers and I'll make a TLDR summary at the end.

 

 

 

Official Vote Count:

Arsis (2) – manbat , dice
GleMeri (1) – TI
TI (2) – Despothera, GleMeri
SickPuppets (3) - Halligeddon , Arsis, Yates
Pralaya (2) – Tomstress, AJ
Nervositee (1) – TheSlenderMan


Not Voting (6): everyone else

With 17 alive, it takes 9 to lynch!

 

This is my starting reference point on pg 60 I believe, fwiw. I quoted all the VCs along the way to keep track of who was voting who and when, so just follow along.

 

Arsis or Yates.

Guess I had said that before.

 

This is probably a scum claim in and of itself. I feel reasonably good about both of these slots atm and looking back this just seems very singular on Pral's part.

 

Official Vote Count:

Arsis (3) – manbat , dice, Pral
GleMeri (1) – TI
TI (3) – Despothera, GleMeri, AJ
SickPuppets (3) - Halligeddon , Arsis, Yates
Pralaya (1) – Tomstress,
Nervositee (1) – TheSlenderMan


Not Voting (2): everyone else

With 17 alive, it takes 9 to lynch!

 

VC after Pral puts his vote onto Arsis. So leading wagons are Arsis, TI and SP.

 

At first I was going to say "What'd I miss" and then shut up and let the game flow a bit.  Then I read a couple of pages and decided to go on a rant about not lynching Tommy based on him not doing what you expect him to do as town OR scum because that's, ya know, stupid.  Then I thought about how incredibly obvious Arsis is making it that he wants to self preserve (read the above) and it made me chuckle that he isn't consensus scum in this game.  Then I said to myself, Ya know... A more inspired individual would go back and read through the game and see who is keeping Arsis from taking off.  I bet that's really solid D1 info, even if he flips town since he is obviously getting lynched this game.

 

So I decided to tell you all and let you go do it while I solve Arsis' issue with voting.  

 

[v] Arsis [/v]

 

Also gonna point out that both Manbat and Dice look really clean so far so Arsis train looks solid sans Laya who is in the perfect spot for a bus if one is needed.  Gooooood data ITW (In this wagon).

 

I still think this post is important. I pointed this out earlier as a potential 'momentum swing' vote and I feel reasonably safe saying that Arsis is probably town here. Of note this puts Arsis in the lead and I've bolded the bit that stuck out to me the most when I saw it the first time.

 

 

Holy balloon you guys got serious fast! I was expecting 30 pages of spam that I could skim over then get to the juicy bits but page 3 you are already acting like it's endgame.

not at all up to date, but I'm trying to stay current while re-reading so I have a chance of ever catching up.

I find it worrying that I agree so much with Des. Just because.

From what I've read - gone or not right now - Turinhydra is the most obvious and safest place to lynch today.

Not crazy about AJ either. He has been going after inactives from the very start and is apparently still doing it. It's fine to prod at the silent peeps but c'mon, Also some other tidbits and tone that I find off.

Some quick thoughts here before dashing to work. Time to... carry some plates.

 

I got woke a bit early do will try get a bit out.

I gotta say I don't like this post very much. The aw geez first section. Followed by not liking that he agrees with Despo. He shouldn't but that is another story. The thing about AJ is meh. I think some folks have a hard on for lurkers due to a recent game that had most of mafia team lurking.

I really don't like the line "safest" lynch in regards to TI. That is indicating a willingness to sheep to blend in.

 

Knowing Vos was Indy doesn't lock Turin in as town here, but I do actually think this is a good post on his part.

 

My reads at present:

CS/Hallia are town.
Yates is mafia. This is a lean.
AJ is mafia. I think he is trying to help arsis stay away from the lead with his recent vote jumps. Why the Darthe vote?
Arsis is mafia. Agree with slender and Darthe about their thoughts.
SP is town. I think he is a setup lynch.
Krak is town. Really null and needs to post more.
Manbat is town. This is a lean. I have no bad comments for him.
Vos is mafia. Really didn't like that post.
Darthe is town. Same as manbat.
Tsb is town. Null actually. He needs to get back in the game. He knows about it so play.
TI is town.
Pralaya is town. This is a lean. He needs to get caught up or some semblance thereof.
Slender is town. I feel good about what he has said so far.
Dice is town. This is also a lean but fairly solid.
TG/Meri is mafia. I gave my reason already.
Despo is mafia.
TomTress is mafia. This is a lean. Tress made an odd comment in her read on us. Something like wanting us to spend more time on something other than TG. I don't see how that post comes from a townie that thinks I'm mafia.

Anyway there you go. I need to get started to.my day. May not be around at dl.

[unvote]
[V] Arsis[/v]

Willing to switch back to any of my other mafia reads to consolidate.

 

I still think this is pretty bad as a whole but I'm beginning to think perhaps Turin just suffers really hard from OMGUS as most of his scum reads are people who have questioned him this game.

 

Damn, 13 pages in and Des is town telling like a Mofo.  

 

 

That's the Des I like to see.

 

Buddying???

 

That new song "shake shake shake shake shake shake, shake it off shake it off" is TOTES my new guilty pleasure JAM yo!

/itsfunnycauseima14yroldgirl

 

This isn't game related but I missed this earlier and had a good laugh at it now.

 

I love that song too. I legit blast it on the radio whenever it comes on

 

Cause the haters gonna hate, hate, hate, hate, hate baby...

 

Official Vote Count:

Arsis (4) – manbat , dice, Pral, Darthe,
TI (3) – Despothera, GleMeri, AJ
SickPuppets (1) - Yates
Pralaya (1) – TheSlenderMan

Tomstress (1) - Arsis
AJ (3) - Halligeddon, Tomstress, TI

Not Voting (4): everyone else

With 17 alive, it takes 9 to lynch!

 

Not much of note here except that this was around the time my wagon built. I think CS is pretty clear at this point and I don't fault Tom here although I do have some bad feeling about Turin's vote. Could be seen as opportunistic but then again at least he was consistent about voting amongst his 7 scum reads.

 

The part that kind of gives me pause is that I'm not sure I could see Pral/Darthe voting consecutively like that on the same wagon as scum together.

 

This kind of makes me want to gain info on Arsis whether it be a peek/coroner just to clear the WIFOM around him. I think it would shed some light on a lot of players pointing at him.

 

 

[Andrej]

Part 2

 

 

 

 

 

Slender I feel like you're slipping into the background what's up? Whatchu thinkin?

 

Well trying to get rayn Lynched in the VS-round and got an assignment waiting for me so I'm going to be silent for a while.

 

I'm surprised no one picked on nervositee's entrance to the Thread.

 

Arsis/Prala/nerv would all be fine Lynches IMO.

 

I don't want to Lynch SickPuppets.

 

Nor do I want to Lynch AJ.

 

Turin has a lot of logicfails but that doesn't make them automatic Scum -- the beginning of the game still seemed Town-like on the reread so I'm going to stick to that, though I won't cry myself to sleep if he's Lynched.

 

I'm going to give you the post where nerv entered the Thread, because after that there's also an interaction between me-manbat I wanted to hear your thoughts on.

 

We should all probably just sheep Slendy imo

 

Arsis if you are a villager you gave ten posts or less to convince me to move my vote because from what I've seen so far I kinda don't really want to, especially considering I have the other wagons at villager reads or ~rrand

 

Again, Arsis flip might shed some light here on where Monstrman is coming from. I don't particularly dislike this post as he'd been pushing him pretty consistently but I'm not sure what wolf!Monster is capable of. A lot of uncertainty around Arsis still.

 

I think my list of people I won't lynch today is probably shorter than the other.

AJ, Des, Slendy, TG, Tommy

Yup. That's it.

 

I have zero objections to this list.

 

Official Vote Count:

Arsis (5) – manbat , dice, Pral, Darthe, TheSlenderMan
TI (2) –  GleMeri, AJ
SickPuppets (1) - Yates
Tomstress (1) - Arsis
AJ (2) - Halligeddon, TI

Nervositee (2) - Des, Tomstress

Not Voting (4): everyone else

With 17 alive, it takes 9 to lynch!

 

I think Des and Tommy (although already town reads for me) both look good here for being on Vos.

 

 

@manbat.

1. I'm town.
2. II've been actively scum hunting and trying to figure things out.

Guys im convinced.


Who are we lynching today and why is it not arsis?

 

Not really sure if sarcasm or what. Doesn't make me feel great about Darthe as I don't think this post would be hard to make as scum. Arsis/Darthe flips would be telling imo

 

 

#1196 is nerv -- http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/91064-standard-cory-vs-bad-dietary-habits-laziness-mafia-day-1/?p=3338548

 

#1213 is the start of me-manbat -- http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/91064-standard-cory-vs-bad-dietary-habits-laziness-mafia-day-1/?p=3338566

 

The gap was longer than I thought so I'm giving them separately.

 

I also remember thinking at some point that there is someone among the Lynch candidates (Prala IIRC) who is prooobably not knowingly-co-aligned with Arsis.

 

FWIW in my experience Vos scum telling is a town tell.

 

I kind of read this as white knighting after Vos's flip. Krak wouldn't know he was 3rd party, just that he wasn't mafia, which is important here.

 

Ok, caught up a bit more and Arsis seems as bad as I had him before. So, my vote stays there.

One more person who looked bad in my read-through was Hally. I know that it is hard to get a read on her but in a way, she is like me - silent on the initial days but gets good reads as the game progresses further. This game she is off in that she is very enthusiatic about giving her reads early and most of them liking the vocal posters and playing it safe.

Example - here and here where she starts off with how she likes Tommy, Des, Slender, Manbat and then settles on dice and puppets as the ones she doesn't like - here

Csarmi's reads are again with the crowd - consensual.

Something else that was interesting
 

 

So is everyone specific food items like TG's claim? I am not.

 And the softclaim that makes me think you're town.  Again.

 

Why? I know that i mentioned the same to Tommy and SP, but I have my reason. Csarmi's reaction to TG's softclaim of food and Hally's reaction to Tommy's softclaim of not-food sounds somehow opposite.
 

That's a yummy claim. Would eat.

I believe scum in Arsis, Yates, Halligeddon and one more in probably AJ/Darthe/TSB.

 

Likely another scum claim from Pral. Reinforces his scum read on Arsis and lists Hallia as his other potential.

 

Out of his bottom list of scum reads, since wolves can't resist the urge to list their compadres, I would guess Swag is a likely candidate considering his complete absence. If not him then Darthe and the Yates in that order. Funny thing about this is that in previous post from Pral he said I was 'looking better' but here he still has me as likely scum. Yeahhhh, okay buddy.

 

Official Vote Count:

Arsis (5) – manbat , dice, Pral, Darthe, Halligeddon
TI (1) –  GleMeri,
SickPuppets (1) - Yates
Tomstress (1) - Arsis
Nervositee (5) - Des, Tomstress, TheSlenderMan, AJ, TI

 

Not Voting (4): everyone else

With 17 alive, it takes 9 to lynch!

 

I think Turin moving to Vos in this VC looks sort of good for him. Obviously I have to consider that he wouldn't be aware that Vos was Indy, but again - consistency in his reads and voting patterns.

 

Arsis also looks pretty dooky here for switching to Tommy, but meh.

 

I'm having a hard time voting for vos here. I'm not seeing what's so scummy.

[v]turin[/v]

I don't like his play today and no one is going with me to tsb.

 

I think is probably villagery of Arsis though. While I still have him and Turin both as potential suspects, this vote sort of goes against the grain of what Darthe could have been framing as self-pres since voting Vos as his counter wagon would've been the move to make in this case as they were the top two wagons at the time.

 

I'm gonna stand by my earlier comment about Vos.

 

[v]Turillian[/v]

 

This one is kinda hard for me to follow. Krak could still be trying to WK Vos here while swapping onto Turin. What gives me pause is why he avoided the Arsis wagon? Arsis/Krak as scumbros might be plausible, but I sort of get the feel that he wanted to avoid that wagon because of other potential Mafia already on it. The whole spread votes around to avoid connection type thing. In any case, if Krak turns out to me mafia I think this looks pretty good for Turin.

 

@slender, I think AJ is playing it cool. He is not likely to be lynched today.

 

Too cool for school, old timer 

 

I'm still on SP. I'm not convinced that Vos is scum but I've liked Slendy's thread presence so I could sheep. Even if only to prevent Arsis from being lynched because I'm much more convinced that Arsis is Town than Vos.

I would still rather lynch Hally or SP, though. If I have time I'll try to build a Hally case but look at Dice's last post for some pretty solid posting.

I need to go put beer in a barrel so I'm out. Try to be back before deadline.

Meh.

[unvote]

[v]Hally[/v]

Next time answer some questions when they are directed at you.

 

I feel like the bolded statement is probably a good sign for Yates. I understand the thought behind it and even though he moves to Hallia at this point I think his suspicion was legit irt her not answering his questions.

 

 

 

[Andrej]

Part 3

 

 

 

 

 

Screw it

 

[unvote]

[v]Vos[/v]

 

lolme if wrong

 

Kinda meh about this. If Vos flipped Mafia I might consider this a good thing, but seeing as how Monstr's vote had been on Arsis for a lengthy time before this I'm remise to give him too much credit.

 

why do i feel like Tommy just derailed the Arsis lynch? While he answered my question of why before i got to ask it Tommy hasn't sold me on not voting arsis and has made me slightly sus of him.

 

i will chck in as i can but am at work so no promises

 

Not really sure how to feel about this. Could be important, maybe not. Again, info on Arsis might shed some good light on some players. Dice had been voting Arsis at this point for the majority of the Day, so I can somewhat see how his read might develop if he thought someone was coming to the rescue of his top scum read, but again, I'm not too sure.

 

Arsis, you saying that you don't think Vos is mafia and that you think krak is,mafia. Krak doesn't think Vos is mafia either.

Why do you think Vos is town and do you have any issues with krak sharing that view? Bonus follo up do you think krak KNOWS Vos is town?

 

I don't really follow Turin's line of questioning here but I do think the bolded statement matches what I'm seeing irt Krak's stance on Vos. Again, with Vos flipping Indy this could have been a failed attempt on Krak's part to look good when Vos flipped presuming he thought he'd show up Town.

 

Another post that makes me feel better about Turin as I read through, fwiw.

 

 

Only not voter is tsb.

 

That reminds me. I'm not voting. 

Vote: Hallia

 

Posts like these are what make me uncertain about SP.

 

Monstrman outed double voter imo

 

lol'd at this

 

 

Official Vote Count:

 

Arsis (4) – dicetosser1, Pralaya, Darthe, Halligeddon

TI (3) –  GleMeri, Krakalakachkn, nervositee

nervositee (5) - Despothera, TheSlenderMan, TI, manbat, Arsis

Halligeddon (4) - Yates, Andrej, SickPuppets, TomStress

 

Not Voting (1): Torrey_Smith's_Brother

 

With 17 alive, it takes 9 to lynch!

 

Deadline: Thursday, 9pm EST.

 

This is around the time things started getting real interesting.

 

Seeing as how Salamia is likely clear at this point, I like SP's vote the least on that wagon. I actually don't remember when/why Arsis swapped to Vos in this particular VC but that's something I'll look into later. *mental note*

 

 

Let's make people swap votes around to see where their loyalties truly lie

 

[unvote]

[v]TI[/v]

 

4/4/4/4 wagons

 

I can see the villager motivation behind this but if Turin does actually end up as Town I think this won't look so good for Monstr.

 

Also salami getting defensive as hell on this page is generally more derptown than aggroscum from him. Someone needs to logically assess him with that in mind.

 

I feel this is important after seeing how aggressively Darthe went at CS over the claim issue.

 

Tom

 

What's got you on Pral now?

 

Krak to the rescue irt Pral maybe??

 

Vos' latest post pretty much confirmed my earlier gut read.  I just don't see him being scum. 

 

Despo did a good case on Turillian and that's where I'm leaving my vote.  Ithi's disinterest is telling imo.

 

I think the bolded should be read as: I just don't see him being Mafia

 

imo

 

Also I think Turin pointed this out how Krak is basically just sheeping Despot's stance on Turin.

 

 

Usually Tom switching votes with little reason so close to deadline doesn't bother me, but trying for a CFD on Pral without dropping a solid reason right away doesn't sit well with me right now. 

 

wolfy pop in

 

This does make me feel better about Monstr though. I'll save the tinfoil for later as I think Krak is a much bigger suspect atm

 

 

 

His play so far makes me think he's town but Tom's a good player so I don't want to clear him.

 

SO. MUCH. THIS.

THANK YOU THANK YOU THANK YOU.

Glad I unvoted you.

 

All three of us are on this page and I think the rest of the game is too save for the few who think they have the power to D1 him.  They don't though.

 

I'm sorta tired of CFDing atm though.  Really wasting D1 lynch ability in favor of intangible results since it's being driven by people who aren't yet trustworthy.

 

 

 

We need to lynch one of the three candidates that have been carried and analyzed through the day imo.  I'll not really defend any of them since all have warranted the votes garnered on them so IMO buddy up to the groups who you think are most town on most likely scum and let's get some late day consolidation.

 

This might be a townie post by Darthe? idk.

 

I think he can speak objectively on the 'optimal' play even as scum, so my doubts remain.

 

 

Vos' latest post pretty much confirmed my earlier gut read. I just don't see him being scum.


Despo did a good case on Turillian and that's where I'm leaving my vote. Ithi's disinterest is telling imo.

This last is,a wolf claim. Looks like krak is still following old mafia talking points. Also Despo look bad IMO for bailing at deadline.

 

This is what I mentioned earlier. Tbh I think Turin just can't resist the urge to take jabs at Despot whenever possible. 

 

#badblood imo

 

 

 

 

Damn you for making me sit up from bed.

 

I'm Eight hours of sleep

So you're claiming Eight hours of sleep..? A bit odd. Thoughts..?

 

 

Cory isn't sure if I actually exist.

 

I don't know...Hallia knows Cory pretty well and could possibly make a good fake claim as well so that's something I need to take into consideration. 

 

I'm not sure I see SP making this post as scum. Again, my read here keeps changing.

 

I actually think this is a fair point, and although this might sound a little condescending, I'm not sure SP as scum would be able to make such a point if he didn't actually believe it.

 

[v]unvote vote Salami[/v]

 

lol

 

 

 

 

 

Usually Tom switching votes with little reason so close to deadline doesn't bother me, but trying for a CFD on Pral without dropping a solid reason right away doesn't sit well with me right now.

I take extra offense to this because my starting a CFD doesn't make sense for a scum play with 3 nearly-tied wagons to choose from. Unless you're gonna say they're all scum with me?

 
 
It sticks with your meta, but I just don't see a CFD on Pral flying here, especially with the way everyone is dithering and by not offering a solid reason to CFD with that post, regardless of whether or not you've commented on him in the past.  Maybe it's not a wolf play, but it's a bad play imo.

I actually did provide reasoning. A lot of it.

 

Yeah, after the fact.  When I asked you.

 

 

Yeah, after the fact.  When I asked you.

So you're upset that I was able to provide detailed reasoning for being suspicious of someone in just a few minutes after being asked?

That makes sense.

 

Tommy already nailed this one, but yeah, I'm in 100% agreement here.

 

 

 

[Andrej]

TLDR

 

Top scum reads atm are Krak/Pral hands down.

 

After looking everything over I think Turin could be town here and I have a very soft tinfoil on Monstr.

 

Other potential suspects are Darthe and Dice.

 

I want to say Arsis is probably clear after D1 but with so much revolving around him I would like some clarity as to his real alignment because that'll help me shape the rest of my reads.

 

Swag should get vigged/peeked/MK'd imo just so that he's no longer floating as an uncleared slot.

[Andrej]

I think if we vig/lynch/peek out of this group we're on the right track to victory

 

Krak

Pral

Swag

Darthe

Dice

Monstr

Arsis

 

Top down imo

[Andrej]

 

Put them at ease.

 

All I ever really need is a flip and then I can start to solve.

VOS flipped Indy.

 

Doesn't mean you can't catch Mafia though.

 

Mafia, in theory, would presume he was another townie and therefore treat him like one.

[Andrej]

I think if we vig/lynch/peek out of this group we're on the right track to victory

 

Krak

Pral

Swag

Darthe

Dice

Monstr

Arsis

 

Top down imo

 

Mmm... I forgot to add SP here.

 

I might just sponge him as ~town if you VS folk continue to tell me so, but I feel like reading him is hopeless on my end.

[Andrej]

Wheels are still turning so I can't really sleep.

 

Maybe I shouldn't clear Turin so quickly.

 

Reviewing all that info again I could possibly see a connection between him/Darthe/Pral

 

He has both as town in his reads list and they both voted Arsis to make him the lead wagon when it was tied between Turin/Arsis/SP

 

Largely speculation at this point but something I'll keep in mind for the future once we have more coroners to look at.