[Advanced] Blackhoof's Cthulhu Mythos Mafia Game- Day 1

Nynaeve · July 7, 2014

He did.

Nothing has happened to me yet.

If Blackhoof hasn't done a VC since you said it, he probably hasn't seen it yet.

RandA lThor · July 7, 2014

Really? Is no one going to comment on my post. :( The one time I actually wanted an opinion.

Nyn while that is true, there was a 1/3 chance of him dying. However, it is my belief that Mynd thought of the same thing you did and added that in there.

nervositee · July 7, 2014

[v]Rand[/v] by the way. This has to be done now, sorry man. I agree with Red that if we leave it hanging we'll carry on beating dead horses with sticks.

And from experience, it just isn't fun.

Nynaeve · July 7, 2014

Anyone has any idea where we're at VC wise?

Clovdyx · July 7, 2014

I love how we had to bring in someone who is one of the smartest people in the world of his age to come in and replace, because there was no hope anyone else could cope with this game.

Huge welcome Rand. It's been far too long. I remember the baguette and your scummy ways, I've missed you <3

Clov FOS for being all like "Yo, it's Mynd or Rand".

Yea, I get your point. But I think the mafia team is hanging back and riding this one to sweet victory. If it wasn't for Mynd's dream I'd be voting Red right now.

We are getting our behinds royally handed to us this game. And now it is a question of whether we trust Rand or Mynd, or whether we are both town and we are all going down the rabbit hole again.

I don't care how this sounds. Mynd, I want you to role claim. There's been enough BS flying around at this point about your dream and at this point I want to know whether it's worth keeping you alive or not. Because frankly right now I'm inclined to believe Rand believe it or not.

Possible scumzorz: Red, Dawn, and Mynd or Rand. We shall see.

Is bold supposed to say "they are both town..."? If that's the case, I'm not sure how that's even on the table right now, unless the nightmare was some bastardized punishment "gift" for Mynd saying Voldermort three times. You simply cannot come to the logical conclusion that a Town!Mynd would make up something like that and pull three names out of there air - it would have been a near certainty that Des, Wombat, and Dap would have been lynched in whatever order until one flipped scum. If it results in zero, Mynd's dead. Plain and simple. I don't necessarily consider him to be the most rational of players, but causing four consecutive mislynches is something no townie would ever choose to do.

If it's NOT meant to say that, I have no idea what you're getting at, so could you clarify?

As far as my actual role, I'm VT. The "gift" I got from saying HHH was a Nightmare, I got to choose three names but I had a chance of death. Lenlo was frozen, and I guess we are about to find out what happens to you.

I should be more confident than I am about Rand flipping scum. I was sure Wombat was scum on D2 and quite surprised he flipped town. I'm starting to worry that an assumption I made earlier in the game has cost us big time. According to my PM about my HHH gift, it was different than any other gift I would receive from other players; however, this apparently does not mean that I am not an "insane" player. The insanity has to do with my targets being randomized.

So yeah....there is a chance that the three names I chose may have randomly......yeah........

Still, I don't think anyone who has been lynched so far hadn't been acting scummy enough to warrant it.

10/10, outstanding cover your ass post. Per the rules, there's no reason to believe than insanity would alter your results, only your targets. The last bolded sentence indicates that you chose Wombat, Des, and Dap, and apparently you got results on them - so congratulations, you aren't (weren't?) insane!

Last sentence reads like typical "Oh, they had it coming anyways" defense.

I sent someone a gift last night. If someone other than who I directed it to received it, then I know I am insane.

Did anyone receive a gift from me last night?

This would be better served if you revealed who you tried to gift IMO. If you're town, not insane, AND gifted a scum player...what do they think the odds they admit to receiving it are? Insanity is not confirmed through autopsy, right?

Meanwhile, if you name the player and they deny it, we know you're insane, you're lying, or they're lying.

1. Oh shit. A double-FoS.

Now you're really in trouble. :P

I've been giving this a lot of thought. Lenlo said the name three times, gets silenced. Aka negative outcome. Mynd says it three times and gets a nightmare that presumably allows him to name three people and be told if there's scum in them. Doesn't it strike you as a bit odd that he got a positive utility out of it, when Len got a negative one?

I'm not familiar with the theme so I don't get the significance of the name and saying it three times. Can anyone clarify on what it means within the theme?

Yes.

Clovdyx · July 7, 2014

Rand(4)- Red, Hallia, Mynd, Vos
Mynd (1) - Rand

Not voting(6)- Tsukibana, dawnflower, Clovdyx, TGlems, Nyn, ReleaseTheEvil

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Clovdyx · July 7, 2014

[v]Mynd[/v]

His CYA post makes me think he got caught with his hand in the cookie drawer and he's trying to bullslip his way out. Mynd was all fire and brimstone when it was between Wombat and Des, but now that there's only one suspect left, he's backing out? Reeks.

RandA lThor · July 7, 2014

Please hold off on votes until Hoof says what happens to RTE, and Mynds question has been asked

To set a good example, [unvote]

RandA lThor · July 7, 2014

Thanks for your suppport though Clov

Myndrunner · July 7, 2014

[v]Mynd[/v]

His CYA post makes me think he got caught with his hand in the cookie drawer and he's trying to bullslip his way out. Mynd was all fire and brimstone when it was between Wombat and Des, but now that there's only one suspect left, he's backing out? Reeks.

This post will also be very interesting after the Rand flip. Clov would rather lynch me than the likely scum.

nervositee · July 7, 2014

1. Oh shit. A double-FoS.

Now you're really in trouble. :P

I've been giving this a lot of thought. Lenlo said the name three times, gets silenced. Aka negative outcome. Mynd says it three times and gets a nightmare that presumably allows him to name three people and be told if there's scum in them. Doesn't it strike you as a bit odd that he got a positive utility out of it, when Len got a negative one?

I'm not familiar with the theme so I don't get the significance of the name and saying it three times. Can anyone clarify on what it means within the theme?

Yes.

We've been over this. Read the thread. The dream had a 1/3 chance of killing him dead right there. Not a great utility overall.

Beside, with the flavour of the game, I don't see anything as impossible. It's all abit insane, and a dream that could kill you doesn't sound too far out.

Clovdyx · July 7, 2014

[v]Mynd[/v]

His CYA post makes me think he got caught with his hand in the cookie drawer and he's trying to bullslip his way out. Mynd was all fire and brimstone when it was between Wombat and Des, but now that there's only one suspect left, he's backing out? Reeks.

This post will also be very interesting after the Rand flip. Clov would rather lynch me than the likely scum.

He's likely scum? I thought you weren't particularly confident, since there's a chance your results might be wrong? The way I look at it, it's roughly 50/50 between you two, and there's a possibility it's BOTH of you.

But hey, thanks for the soft push for having some reasonable doubt. It wasn't too long ago you were suspicious of anybody who took your claim as gospel, and now that there's an actual reason to doubt it, it's worth noting? Not making me feel any better about you.

RandA lThor · July 7, 2014

[v]Mynd[/v]

His CYA post makes me think he got caught with his hand in the cookie drawer and he's trying to bullslip his way out. Mynd was all fire and brimstone when it was between Wombat and Des, but now that there's only one suspect left, he's backing out? Reeks.

This post will also be very interesting after the Rand flip. Clov would rather lynch me than the likely scum.

Mynd the more posts you make like this, the less and less I believe there's a chance that you had a dream and it was wrong. Firstly, go see my post and ask Hoof the question I told you to. Secondly, I don't see how I'm likely scum seeing as you thought I was town when you first got your dream, and as far as I know, you haven't made any suggestion that that has changed. Horrible play from someone I expected much better from.

Clovdyx · July 7, 2014

1. Oh shit. A double-FoS.

Now you're really in trouble. :P

I've been giving this a lot of thought. Lenlo said the name three times, gets silenced. Aka negative outcome. Mynd says it three times and gets a nightmare that presumably allows him to name three people and be told if there's scum in them. Doesn't it strike you as a bit odd that he got a positive utility out of it, when Len got a negative one?

I'm not familiar with the theme so I don't get the significance of the name and saying it three times. Can anyone clarify on what it means within the theme?

Yes.

We've been over this. Read the thread. The dream had a 1/3 chance of killing him dead right there. Not a great utility overall.

Beside, with the flavour of the game, I don't see anything as impossible. It's all abit insane, and a dream that could kill you doesn't sound too far out.

It's not impossible. But I do find it a bit strange. Okay, Mynd had a 33% chance of death, but he also had a chance of being able to clear 3 players (if they all came back innocent) with a chance of finding mafia. It's a double edged sword, but there is a benefit. Lenlo got silenced. Unless I'm overlooking a detail of it, there is no inherent benefit to it. He wasn't cleared, he wasn't lynch immune, he didn't get any advantage at night. He just couldn't post.

I'm not going to pretend to know how the mechanic works, but if that doesn't seem just a bit unfair to you...well, agree to disagree I guess?

Myndrunner · July 7, 2014

[v]Mynd[/v]

His CYA post makes me think he got caught with his hand in the cookie drawer and he's trying to bullslip his way out. Mynd was all fire and brimstone when it was between Wombat and Des, but now that there's only one suspect left, he's backing out? Reeks.

This post will also be very interesting after the Rand flip. Clov would rather lynch me than the likely scum.

He's likely scum? I thought you weren't particularly confident, since there's a chance your results might be wrong? The way I look at it, it's roughly 50/50 between you two, and there's a possibility it's BOTH of you.

But hey, thanks for the soft push for having some reasonable doubt. It wasn't too long ago you were suspicious of anybody who took your claim as gospel, and now that there's an actual reason to doubt it, it's worth noting? Not making me feel any better about you.

Likewise. I don't have a problem with people questioning my ability when I first claimed it; but I do have a problem with those who question it NOW and push for my lynch instead. We've narrowed down my read to just Rand and now you want me to be lynched instead? Its as if you know how Rand will flip and want to maximize your town lynches before scum #2 goes down.

Here is the situation we are in:

If Rand flips town, I'm screwed (and likely insane), but if I survive any pro-town kill, I'm lynched D3 regardless. I'll even start it. I am town, this I know, but if I am insane, my reads are useless.

If (and more like when) Rand flips scum, it should clear me, but not completely as some have pointed out that this could have been a big elaborate plan with an inactive Dap who suddenly became Rand.

nervositee · July 7, 2014

My guess is as good as yours.

[v]Mynd[/v]

His CYA post makes me think he got caught with his hand in the cookie drawer and he's trying to bullslip his way out. Mynd was all fire and brimstone when it was between Wombat and Des, but now that there's only one suspect left, he's backing out? Reeks.

This post will also be very interesting after the Rand flip. Clov would rather lynch me than the likely scum.

He's likely scum? I thought you weren't particularly confident, since there's a chance your results might be wrong? The way I look at it, it's roughly 50/50 between you two, and there's a possibility it's BOTH of you.

But hey, thanks for the soft push for having some reasonable doubt. It wasn't too long ago you were suspicious of anybody who took your claim as gospel, and now that there's an actual reason to doubt it, it's worth noting? Not making me feel any better about you.

Well, it's a difference.

I'm also suspicious of anyone who doesn't doubt Mynd.

However, as far as I see it, it's pretty far from "50/50", and you deciding to lynch Mynd instead of Rand is pretty strange.

Personally, I think Rand is scum and should be lynched today, and we are just digging ourselves into a hole making theories about what happened. But... again personally I'd really hate to go into the next day WITHOUT Rands' flip. We'll be muddling around in the WIFOM we created for ourselves and scum can sit back and giggle.

My 2 cents is we lynch Rand today. If he flips town we lynch Mynd.

We can waddle around and confuse ourselves in WIFOM or we can do this straight and narrow. No BS. There is a small chance I'm wrong, but I think this is the way to go now.

RandA lThor · July 7, 2014

Also I'm surprised that no one has mentioned the fact that initially Mynd just said it was a dream, and then mentioned the 1/3 chance later. Seems like either Mynd or someone on his QT told him that there might be a flaw in the dream gift, and told him to add a chance of death in.

On top of that, and this is more semantics and a much smaller point, so you can ignore this, but 1/3 seems like an odd number. Generally I'd feel like 1/2 or 1/4 are just more... round. And on top of that, if we're talking negative items, a 1/3 chance of dying with a 2/3 chance of potentially clearing 3 town, or finding some mafia is more likely to be positive than negative.

Myndrunner · July 7, 2014

[v]Mynd[/v]

His CYA post makes me think he got caught with his hand in the cookie drawer and he's trying to bullslip his way out. Mynd was all fire and brimstone when it was between Wombat and Des, but now that there's only one suspect left, he's backing out? Reeks.

This post will also be very interesting after the Rand flip. Clov would rather lynch me than the likely scum.

Mynd the more posts you make like this, the less and less I believe there's a chance that you had a dream and it was wrong. Firstly, go see my post and ask Hoof the question I told you to. Secondly, I don't see how I'm likely scum seeing as you thought I was town when you first got your dream, and as far as I know, you haven't made any suggestion that that has changed. Horrible play from someone I expected much better from.

I've asked and I am waiting. It's also been asked publicly in the thread as well.

And let's be reasonable, of the three Dap was the least likely to be scum based on my feel for what went down with Lenlo. I felt he was town. Is it scummy to think someone is town then suddenly change ones mind when new info presents itself?

To be honest, I have doubts about this whole ordeal now that Despo flipped town as well. When there were three, I figured it had to be Wombat, then maybe Despo. Now, by process of elimination, you are the only one left. Not sure adding the insult of horrible play was necessary, you are assuming a lot with that.

RandA lThor · July 7, 2014

My guess is as good as yours.

[v]Mynd[/v]

His CYA post makes me think he got caught with his hand in the cookie drawer and he's trying to bullslip his way out. Mynd was all fire and brimstone when it was between Wombat and Des, but now that there's only one suspect left, he's backing out? Reeks.

This post will also be very interesting after the Rand flip. Clov would rather lynch me than the likely scum.

He's likely scum? I thought you weren't particularly confident, since there's a chance your results might be wrong? The way I look at it, it's roughly 50/50 between you two, and there's a possibility it's BOTH of you.

But hey, thanks for the soft push for having some reasonable doubt. It wasn't too long ago you were suspicious of anybody who took your claim as gospel, and now that there's an actual reason to doubt it, it's worth noting? Not making me feel any better about you.

Well, it's a difference.

I'm also suspicious of anyone who doesn't doubt Mynd.

However, as far as I see it, it's pretty far from "50/50", and you deciding to lynch Mynd instead of Rand is pretty strange.

Personally, I think Rand is scum and should be lynched today, and we are just digging ourselves into a hole making theories about what happened. But... again personally I'd really hate to go into the next day WITHOUT Rands' flip. We'll be muddling around in the WIFOM we created for ourselves and scum can sit back and giggle.

My 2 cents is we lynch Rand today. If he flips town we lynch Mynd.

We can waddle around and confuse ourselves in WIFOM or we can do this straight and narrow. No BS. There is a small chance I'm wrong, but I think this is the way to go now.

How is it not 50/50? What have I done, that you have previously remarked on, that was more scummy than Mynd?

Myndrunner · July 7, 2014

RandA lThor · July 7, 2014

[v]Mynd[/v]

His CYA post makes me think he got caught with his hand in the cookie drawer and he's trying to bullslip his way out. Mynd was all fire and brimstone when it was between Wombat and Des, but now that there's only one suspect left, he's backing out? Reeks.

This post will also be very interesting after the Rand flip. Clov would rather lynch me than the likely scum.

Mynd the more posts you make like this, the less and less I believe there's a chance that you had a dream and it was wrong. Firstly, go see my post and ask Hoof the question I told you to. Secondly, I don't see how I'm likely scum seeing as you thought I was town when you first got your dream, and as far as I know, you haven't made any suggestion that that has changed. Horrible play from someone I expected much better from.

I've asked and I am waiting. It's also been asked publicly in the thread as well.

And let's be reasonable, of the three Dap was the least likely to be scum based on my feel for what went down with Lenlo. I felt he was town. Is it scummy to think someone is town then suddenly change ones mind when new info presents itself?

To be honest, I have doubts about this whole ordeal now that Despo flipped town as well. When there were three, I figured it had to be Wombat, then maybe Despo. Now, by process of elimination, you are the only one left. Not sure adding the insult of horrible play was necessary, you are assuming a lot with that.

Sorry the horrible play was reserved just for the statement or rather the phrase "likely scum". On the whole your play has been rather good this game, whether you're town or scum, which is why the "horrible play" contrasted the rest of what you've done. And even if you are sure that I'm scum, that doesn't make me likely scum does it? It makes me likely scum in your eyes, but expecting it from other people when even you, who knew your dream was real, was fairly sure I was town before the two flips, is expecting things from other people that you didn't do yourself. I hope that clarifies why I thought you had some horrible play there, and also what your fault was in the paragraph.

I agree with what you said in your response, but as explained in the first paragraph here, i don't think that response counters the flaw I saw in your post.

nervositee · July 7, 2014

On top of that, and this is more semantics and a much smaller point, so you can ignore this, but 1/3 seems like an odd number. Generally I'd feel like 1/2 or 1/4 are just more... round. And on top of that, if we're talking negative items, a 1/3 chance of dying with a 2/3 chance of potentially clearing 3 town, or finding some mafia is more likely to be positive than negative.

I think you're flailing. Hard.

Name three players - there is a one in third chance you die.

Clovdyx · July 7, 2014

My guess is as good as yours.

[v]Mynd[/v]

His CYA post makes me think he got caught with his hand in the cookie drawer and he's trying to bullslip his way out. Mynd was all fire and brimstone when it was between Wombat and Des, but now that there's only one suspect left, he's backing out? Reeks.

This post will also be very interesting after the Rand flip. Clov would rather lynch me than the likely scum.

He's likely scum? I thought you weren't particularly confident, since there's a chance your results might be wrong? The way I look at it, it's roughly 50/50 between you two, and there's a possibility it's BOTH of you.

But hey, thanks for the soft push for having some reasonable doubt. It wasn't too long ago you were suspicious of anybody who took your claim as gospel, and now that there's an actual reason to doubt it, it's worth noting? Not making me feel any better about you.

Well, it's a difference.

I'm also suspicious of anyone who doesn't doubt Mynd.

However, as far as I see it, it's pretty far from "50/50", and you deciding to lynch Mynd instead of Rand is pretty strange.

Personally, I think Rand is scum and should be lynched today, and we are just digging ourselves into a hole making theories about what happened. But... again personally I'd really hate to go into the next day WITHOUT Rands' flip. We'll be muddling around in the WIFOM we created for ourselves and scum can sit back and giggle.

My 2 cents is we lynch Rand today. If he flips town we lynch Mynd.

We can waddle around and confuse ourselves in WIFOM or we can do this straight and narrow. No BS. There is a small chance I'm wrong, but I think this is the way to go now.

How is it not 50/50? These are the scenarios for their alignments:

-Mynd town, Rand scum

-Mynd scum, Rand town

-Mynd scum, Rand scum

Based solely off of the possibilities, it should be a coinflip between which is telling the truth. Compare this to the scenarios when the dream results were first presented:

-Mynd town, Despot scum, others unknown

-Mynd town, Wombat scum, others unknown

-Mynd town, Daprand scum, others unknown

-Mynd scum, others unknown.

Each time one of his candidates died, it slightly lowered the likeliness he was telling the truth. What you have now is essentially Mynd claiming cop with a guilty verdict on Rand. I'm not saying that Mynd DID claim cop, but the scenario is the same - Mynd was given night results that, right now, confirm Rand as scum. Why is Mynd now waffling on the accuracy of his results? He says that it's as if I know what Rand's going to come up as, but look at him - he had no problem lynching between Despot and Wombat during the previous day phase and wrote a case on why it probably wasn't Dap. Now he's presenting the framework so that if his results are wrong, it's justified...him being insane...even though there's no reason to believe that insanity would even CAUSE unreliable results.

As for the bold, I will vouch that 100%, and I'll say the same thing holds true for Mynd - if town dies today, it pretty much damns the other one.

nervositee · July 7, 2014

How is it not 50/50? These are the scenarios for their alignments:

-Mynd town, Rand scum

-Mynd scum, Rand town

-Mynd scum, Rand scum

Based solely off of the possibilities, it should be a coinflip between which is telling the truth. Compare this to the scenarios when the dream results were first presented:

-Mynd town, Despot scum, others unknown

-Mynd town, Wombat scum, others unknown

-Mynd town, Daprand scum, others unknown

-Mynd scum, others unknown.

Each time one of his candidates died, it slightly lowered the likeliness he was telling the truth. What you have now is essentially Mynd claiming cop with a guilty verdict on Rand. I'm not saying that Mynd DID claim cop, but the scenario is the same - Mynd was given night results that, right now, confirm Rand as scum. Why is Mynd now waffling on the accuracy of his results? He says that it's as if I know what Rand's going to come up as, but look at him - he had no problem lynching between Despot and Wombat during the previous day phase and wrote a case on why it probably wasn't Dap. Now he's presenting the framework so that if his results are wrong, it's justified...him being insane...even though there's no reason to believe that insanity would even CAUSE unreliable results.

As for the bold, I will vouch that 100%, and I'll say the same thing holds true for Mynd - if town dies today, it pretty much damns the other one.

That is a sleigh of hands with numbers. You say it should be a flip of a coin. This isn't a game of numbers, nor coin-flips. It's a game of reading other people.

I don't see scum-Mynd saying HHH, then something happenes that no-one notices so instead of saying, he makes an elobate lie about a one-time dream setting up a series of mislynches.

I think it's much more likely Dap-Rand is scum.

Myndrunner · July 7, 2014

There is the slight possibility that Rand/Mynd are town/town, although unlikely. I know I am town so if Rand, for whatever reason, flips town, then it is that case. I wouldn't blame anyone for lynching me in that this whole mess would have led us to three mislynches. The whole insane thing is a possibility as well as the possibility of a bus driver type role. There are possiblities, although improbable, that could happen.

Having said that, the most likely scenario is Rand is teh scum.

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