The Borderland Army

[Guest Anonymous!]

Aha! I found it… here is the good version of that Fordham link I posted earlier. I have also posted three other links that I have just gathered over the years of surfing.

 

http://www.tulane.edu/~august/H303/handouts/Population.htm

http://www.euratlas.com/time1.htm

http://www.demographia.com/db-nyc-sector1800.htm

http://www.faculty.fairfield.edu/faculty/hodgson/Courses/so11/population/urbanization.htm

 

…ratio of real miles to Randland miles is 1:.947…

 

Did Jordan come out and say this somewhere? Or is it in one of the books? If this is true then a Randland Mile is bigger than a Real World Mile. So 1 Real Mile Squared = 0.896 Jordan Miles Squared. Okay. I do have an issue with the Population being so low, but I need to talk about the websites first and then I will get into it.

 

I’m going to go into the little Roman History I know in this paragraph. If you already know this stuff just skip ahead. The height of the Roman Empire occurred in the 2nd century. The last “good” Emperor was Marcus Aurelius followed by a series of idiots who caused the Empire to decline, until the split of the Roman Empire in the late 3rd and early 4th centuries. The Roman maximum territory of 2.2-2.3 million square miles occurred in the 2nd Century. The second website has a nice set of maps depicting the century-by-century transition of Europe. The conservative population estimates for that period of time is in the 65-70 million range, with the outlandish extending up to 120 million. The 65-100 million range is the reasonable range. So my numbers were a little high for the Rome analysis. The Tulane website involves the 4th century empire after the decline of the Empire (especially the western empire) already began and Rome was struggling to keep control of its remaining territories. That is why the population estimates are in the mid-50 millions. The 5th century was a really pathetic time for the Western Empire with constant concessions being given to provincial leaders and outside invaders. The Western Empire eventually fell in 476.

 

So why do I have an issue with 2-3ppsm? Because for a land area of 6 million miles that would be a grand total of 12-18 million people. That sounds like a reasonable answer until you look at the Tar Valon map. It has a scale. If you figure out the land area of Tar Valon it is about 28 Randland Square Miles or about 31 Real World Square Miles. During the Roman Empire, the city of Rome had a population of over 1 million people, but Tar Valon is a island city, not a land-based, sprawling city like Rome. So a comparison to Rome is not a good comparison, but the island of Manhattan in the 19th Century is very similar to Tar Valon. Besides it being an Island and used to be a major trade hub, it has a land area of a little over 20 square miles. In 1873 the tallest building in Manhattan was 6 stories tall (Equitable Life Building). Before the 1870’s the tallest buildings in Manhattan was 3-4 stories tall. Two inventions occurred in the middle 19th century that made taller buildings possible: 1) the elevator, 2) steel reinforced concrete. Before that buildings were made of stone, mortar, and wood, just like every other building in history before hand. Were there advancements in Civil Engineering and Architecture between the Middle Ages and the 19th century? Yes, but buildings didn’t get very large until people had a way of getting to the top of buildings without having to walk up 5 stories of stairs (ie the importance of the elevator)

 

We know Tar Valon is Ogier built (implying the buildings are stronger? ), and that it has lots of 2, 3, and even 4 story buildings, just like mid-18th century Manhattan. As far as I know there aren’t any unpopulated or deserted sections of Tar Valon, other than the relative emptiness of the White Tower. From the third website above there is the population data of the island of Manhattan for the 18th Century. If you notice the island of Manhattan passed the 500,000-population mark without even having significant numbers of people living in the northern part of the island. When six story buildings started popping up the population was between 942,292 (1870) and 1,162,673 (1880) The first 20 story building in Manhattan occurred in 1890 when the population was 1,441,216 and is completely outside the bounds of comparison. So realistically I would say that Tar Valon has a population of 1.2 million, with the low end being 700,000 and the high end being 1.7 million, maybe even 2 million. Hey I didn’t draw the map and scale, Jordan did.

 

So is this realistic? Well think of it this way… 1 square mile = 640 Acres = 27,878,400 Sq Ft. For a population of 1.2 Million people in Tar Valon, each person would have about 726 square feet. Every last man, woman, child, and infant has 726 square feet to work with. Figure about 1/3 of the land goes to roads, parks, defensive structures, and warehouses. I know plenty of people who live in 600 square foot (20 ft X 30 ft) apartments in cities. Plus for every giant 1-2 Acre Mansion, there are other acres filled with peasants living in four story apartment buildings, with a families of 5 living in a 400 Square Foot Apartment. So I think 1.2 million is reasonable, and 700,000 is certainly likely.

 

So where does that leave us… well Randland is an agrarian society. Depending on the level of technology, 3-5% of the population live in cities. There are countless sources that will say the same thing and I have included one in the final website. The rest of the population are on farms or small villages supporting the farming community (blacksmith, tinsmith, etc.). So to support the populations I calculated for Tar Valon above, you would need anywhere from 14,000,000 to 40,000,000 people. So if Randland really only has a population of 12,000,000 people, then there aren’t any other large cities and every last person outside of Tar Valon is supporting that city. I know that those two facts are not true. That means Randland needs a bigger population, and Tar Valon has some deserted sections of the city.

 

In conclusion, Randland needs a bigger population. The only ways to blow holes in this are: 1) the scale on Tar Valon is wrong, 2) that the 1 Real World Mile is not equal to 0.947 Randland Miles 3) that half of Tar Valon is either evacuated or only rich people with 2 acre mansions live there, 4) that the level of farming technology is equal to our real world 19th and 20th century technologies 5) that I can’t do geometry. I really hope the last one is not true.

 

Side Note: Anyone who has seen the movie “Gladiator” will recognize the name Marcus Aurelius. His son Commodus was in fact a bad emperor. He did have a passion for the gladiator battles, and he did actually fight in gladiatorial contests. In fact he was killed by a gladiator, but not in the Arena, but in an assasination at home. So that movie had some decent foundations in historical fact.

[Thor]

Yeh. (We need more emoticons for appreciation and stuff.)

[Master of the Blades]

Anonymous

 

There is a conversion table in the BWB.

[RobertAlexWillis]

As far as I know there aren’t any unpopulated or deserted sections of Tar Valon, other than the relative emptiness of the White Tower.

 

Thats an assumption that we don't know is true. Tar Valon was built during a time when the world population was much larger, why wouln't sections of it be abandoned?

 

Look ... what this boils down to is that you are applying real world population trends to a fantasy world which has other influences. There is no discernable material reason for the continuous decline in Randland's population, yet, continue it has. If it were Europe of the early second millenium, the population would have skyrocketed. There is plenty of arable, empty land. But it has not, and so, real world models don't apply.

 

My assumptions about fighting men in the Borderlands are based on the comments of people within the books.

 

In conclusion, Randland needs a bigger population. The only ways to blow holes in this are: 1) the scale on Tar Valon is wrong, 2) that the 1 Real World Mile is not equal to 0.947 Randland Miles 3) that half of Tar Valon is either evacuated or only rich people with 2 acre mansions live there, 4) that the level of farming technology is equal to our real world 19th and 20th century technologies 5) that I can’t do geometry. I really hope the last one is not true.

 

There is a sixth. Real world models do not apply, because there is an influence present that is not in the real world.

 

Also, as a side note, I should have said that the ratio of Randland mile to real miles is 1 to .947. I posted it backward originally. This is based on the table in the glossary of The Fires of Heaven, in which one foot equals 10 inches, and there are 60000 inches in a mile. There are 63360 inches in a statute mile, giving the ratio above. A Randland mile is actually slightly smaller than a statute mile. But this doesn't affect the outcome of your calculations signifigantly. The real world models simply don't apply, because of our buddy Shai'tan.

[Guest cwestervelt]

Lan should have a very difficult time raising any form of effective army. What he is raising should equate to a county militia. As mentioned above, most of those free to follow him will not be professional soldiers, so how many trained fighting men the Borderlander's can field isn't exactly relevant. Does the person who mentioned Agelmar honestly believe he would commit treason by leaving his king to follow Lan at the drop of a hat? I know that I don't.

 

It all boils down to the Borderlander's sence of duty. Dedication to duty is what has allowed the Borderlands to survive and not fall to the Blight. Right now the Borderlands are in serious danger of falling because their leaders have abandoned that duty. Alsuene considers the Borderlanders to have left the Blight "all but unguarded". Ethenielle states, "What I've left behind can guard the Blight short of the Trolloc Wars coming again," but we aren't going to have the Trolloc Wars come again. This time it is Tar'mon Gai'don. I would have to expect this one is going to make the Trolloc Wars pale in comparison. Unless the Borderland rulers abandonment of duty proves epidemic, I wouldn't expect those left behind will abandon theirs to follow Lan. If they try to, and Lan takes them on, the Light help them all.

[Master of the Blades]

I have to disagree with that last statement. There is enough evidence to indicate that Lan will have a substantial army.

 

1) In (NS the Hook) Lan forces are confronted by 20k Aiel. Instead of attacking they Stop and yell Ana'allein and then move off. We also learn that in NS Into Canluun that Lan has a following there.

We learn on (TSR Beyond the Stone) That the Wise Ones were expecting Lan to come with Moiraine.

 

 

2) We also learned in (TEOTW Fal Dara) that the Shienerians in Fal Dara would willingly follow the Golden Cranes. Agelmar Jagad intimates that Lan could raise 10k men on short notice just by doing so.

 

Clearly the Dream Walkers among the Wise Ones know that Lan has an important role to play although it has not been divulged. It is also evident that the Aiel would follow Lan on the word of the Wise Ones.

I suspect that some of the Aiel Spears in Cairhien

will travel by gateway to fight along side Lan at Tarwin's Gap.

 

As to the quality of the soldiers there is no doubt that Lan will be recruiting men with limited military experience. They can be used in a defensive posture as an anvil will the Aiel become the hammer.

The Aiel use this tactic successfully.

 

LAn will have the necessary forces he needs to defend Tarwin's Gap. As to the outcome of the battle RAFO.

[Guest Anonymous!]

RobertAlexWillis and Master of the Blades:

 

Does the conversion table say that 1 Randland Inch is equal to 1 Real World Inch? Or is this an assumption? I'm just looking for clarity. Because Jordan could simply choose to say 1 Randland Inch is equal to 0.25 Real World Inches and that would change everything.

 

RobertAlexWillis wrote:

Look ... what this boils down to is that you are applying real world population trends to a fantasy world which has other influences.

 

 

You are right. It is a fantasy world, but I would change that to "... a fantasy world which is a medium for telling a story and the author will do what he pleases to tell that story." Also, I would also change the sixth assumption to "Jordan has the ultimate control and not the real world forces and properties that control our world." What it truly boils down to is Jordan has ultimate control... He can do whatever he wants in writing his story about 5 youths who left a small village to save the world, no matter how infeasible in the real world.

 

I went into so much depth because I hate it when people say "The world has 10,000,000 people" and don't back it up with a justification. This was my line of thought for saying Randland has a population in the 60 million range. You voiced a similar criticism of the Wotmania author who didn't provide any justification for his 800K number.

[RobertAlexWillis]

Does the conversion table say that 1 Randland Inch is equal to 1 Real World Inch? Or is this an assumption? I'm just looking for clarity.

 

Its an assumption I made, based on the fact that as far as the table is concerned, an inch was the irreducable quantity, and therefore would have to be the basis for comparison. There would be no point to Jordan publishing a measurement table if there was no basis for comparison.

 

I went into so much depth because I hate it when people say "The world has 10,000,000 people" and don't back it up with a justification. This was my line of thought for saying Randland has a population in the 60 million range. You voiced a similar criticism of the Wotmania author who didn't provide any justification for his 800K number.

 

I most certainly did, and your arguments are well thought out. The major problem here is an almost total lack of statistical information about Randland populations. We don't have a list anywhere of census data or even estimates of city populations, at least that I can find. Also, we don't know exactly how deserted the "deserted" areas are. We don't know exactly how the Dark One's touch has affected the birth rate.

 

My objection to the 800k number is based on a comment at the meeting between all the Borderlander rulers, by Alesune, King Easar’s shatayan, who said ”We have left the Blight all but unguarded.” We know the Borderlanders have approximately 200,000 men with them. Leaving three times that number behind (to reach the 800,000 total) does not seem like leaving "the Blight all but unguarded." It would, in fact, mean they had left the majority of their forces behind them. That doesn't make sense, so I object to the 800,000 figure, which has no real reasoning behind it that I could find.

 

You are right. It is a fantasy world, but I would change that to "... a fantasy world which is a medium for telling a story and the author will do what he pleases to tell that story." Also, I would also change the sixth assumption to "Jordan has the ultimate control and not the real world forces and properties that control our world." What it truly boils down to is Jordan has ultimate control... He can do whatever he wants in writing his story about 5 youths who left a small village to save the world, no matter how infeasible in the real world.

 

You are completely correct.

 

We also learned in (TEOTW Fal Dara) that the Shienerians in Fal Dara would willingly follow the Golden Cranes. Agelmar Jagad intimates that Lan could raise 10k men on short notice just by doing so.

 

That offer, and similar ones made in the Borderlands, were made before the rulers stripped down their garrisons and marched south. Agelmar likes and respects Lan, but he's not going to abandon his post to march with him.

 

I suspect that some of the Aiel Spears in Cairhien

will travel by gateway to fight along side Lan at Tarwin's Gap.

 

Not unless Rand gives them permission. He might, don't get me wrong, in fact I think I posted in here earlier that Rand likes Lan alot and is probably going to want to help him.

 

As to the quality of the soldiers there is no doubt that Lan will be recruiting men with limited military experience. They can be used in a defensive posture as an anvil will the Aiel become the hammer.

The Aiel use this tactic successfully.

 

Thats a very dangerous tactic if your defensive position is relatively weak. To expand your metaphor, the hammer might push strong Trolloc metal right through a weak anvil. And then you've been seriously flanked.

 

LAn will have the necessary forces he needs to defend Tarwin's Gap.

 

Maybe. Or maybe his sacrifice getting slaughtered at Tarwin's Gap with woefully inadequate forces is what is necessary to finally galvanize the nations. The whole thing is a big RAFO.

[chemteach1977]

Numbers are all speculation but it seems like most borderlanders would be pretty decent soldiers. I see them as the closest think Randland proper has to the Aiel. Certainly career soldiers would make better fighters but i would bet just about every household in the borderlands has some decent weaponry and the men all know how to use them.

 

If the two rivers can boast a poleaxe or two from each house and couple buckets worth of swords, i don't see the borderlanders fighting with pitchforks etc. I think just about every man that follows Lan will be able to stand toe to toe with a trolloc.

[Master of the Blades]

Not unless Rand gives them permission. He might, don't get me wrong, in fact I think I posted in here earlier that Rand likes Lan alot and is probably going to want to help him.

 

 

Three comments: Is Lan that poor a leader and a soldier that his troops will scatter at the first charge? We have seen in the past that inexperienced troops under strong leadership do well. Perrin in the Two Rivers (TSR)and Mat with the beginnings of the Band (THoH)

 

 

If the Wise Ones send Aiel forces there there is little Rand can do to prevent it. Rand will not be commanding the armies of the Light. That is Mat's role and he will deploy troops as he see fits.

 

There are more than enough troops to defend the Borderlands. They have little command structure because the leadership is in Murandy. Lan becomes the defacto LT General of those armies until Jagad and company return.

[/code]

[RobertAlexWillis]

Is Lan that poor a leader and a soldier that his troops will scatter at the first charge? We have seen in the past that inexperienced troops under strong leadership do well. Perrin in the Two Rivers (TSR)and Mat with the beginnings of the Band

 

Lan's not going to have much time or help in training his farmers. Perrin only had to deal with a few hundred people, and a few thousand Trollocs. Lan is dealing with possibly 50,000 men and half a million Trollocs. Completely different situations.

 

And the core soldiers that formed the Band were professional soldiers. Mat wasn't training farmers.

Again, completely different situation.

 

If the Wise Ones send Aiel forces there there is little Rand can do to prevent it. Rand will not be commanding the armies of the Light. That is Mat's role and he will deploy troops as he see fits.

 

The Aiel are sworn to Rand. He is the Car'a'carn, and though the Wise Ones might try to manipulate his decisions, he commands the spears. They will follow Mat if Rand tells them to follow Mat, and they will help Lan if Rand tells them to help Lan.

 

There are more than enough troops to defend the Borderlands. They have little command structure because the leadership is in Murandy. Lan becomes the defacto LT General of those armies until Jagad and company return.

 

Agelmar Jagad is still in Shienar. King Easar left him behind. And no, the Borderland troops left behind are NOT simply going to abaondon their posts and run off to fight behind the Golden Crane. I doubt Tarwin's Gap is the only place along the Blight that Tarmon Gai'don will strike. However ... Lan might have the direct support of Lord Agelmar, if the main thrust into Shienar comes through the Gap. That would greatly increase the quality of the troops there, and likely double their number, which could make a big difference.

[Master of the Blades]

Agelmar Jagad is still in Shienar. He was left behind.

 

Can you quote the relevant passage.

Last time he was seen was in (TPoD Deceptive Appearances.) He had accompanied Easar to meet with with the other Borderland Rulers.

[Thor]

I still feel that the size of the gap is going to be crucial. :P

[Guest Anonymous!]

Thats a very dangerous tactic if your defensive position is relatively weak. To expand your metaphor, the hammer might push strong Trolloc metal right through a weak anvil. And then you've been seriously flanked.

 

I really agree with this. Not to mention the hammer will be extremely soft. If I were Lan I wouldn’t want any Aiel in my army since their doctrine, tactics, and equipment are going to be largely ineffective against the trollocs hordes (unless he is going to use them exclusively as archers). The hit and run tactics used by the Aiel against traditional Randland forces would get the Aiel butchered against trollocs. To fight the defensive war we are talking about you need strong defensive structures with men standing behind them with long spears and men using missile weapons behind those men. That’s it. Aiel use their speed to keep the enemy off balance and avoid direct confrontation until the enemies moral and discipline have eroded from the constant hit and run attacks. Just like the Huns and the Mongols. Trollocs negate all of those advantages. Since Jordan appears to favor the Aiel he may choose to forget these little inconveniences and still have the Aiel be an awesome fighting force, so it may not play out like this.

 

From what I remember, all the towns in the borderlands were essentially strongholds. They were all walled cities/towns/villages. The discipline of the Borderlanders makes me think that all of the towns are prepared for war at all times. They should have a water source in each of population centers with stores of food. I’m sure they have warning bells or signals for people outside the walls to rally/retreat to safety. When the Trolloc hordes come swarming out of the Blight, I’m sure all the people will be alerted and each of the cities will be fortlets. The DO’s armies will have to cut a path through these fortlets to create supply/reinforcement lines. The DO’s armies will be forced to fight a series of small sieges which will delay the advance and cause severe casualties. Of course depending on the number of Dreadlords the DO has gathered since the Trolloc Wars this point could be mute. But then again, if Dreadlords are used then Lan’s army is pretty useless as well without some Asha’man or Aes Sedai.

[Master of the Blades]

Are we talking about the Aiel being ineffective against Trollocs? Please cite the relevant passages that justify your first statement.

 

(TEoTW The Traveling People) Elyas Machera: " Ahundred miles into the Blight? Impossible! Djevik K'Shar that what the Trollocs call the Waste. The Dying Ground. They would not go a hunderd miles into the Waste if all the Myrdraal in the Blight were driving them."

 

The Trollocs are more afraid of the Aiel than they are of Shadar Logoth. And you state that they tactics are ineffective! You need to go and interview a Trolloc.

 

Elyas Machera besides being a Wolfbrother and a Warder is a Borderlander who taught LAn about the Blight. (TEoTW Rescue) His words carry more weight than your conjecture.

[RobertAlexWillis]

Last time he was seen was in (TPoD Deceptive Appearances.) He had accompanied Easar to meet with with the other Borderland Rulers.

 

You are correct, I was mistaken. Agelmar Jagad did indeed accompany King Easar south.

 

Which makes Lan's situation more precarious. Lord Aglemar probably would have had the authority to order his troops to follow Lan, without getting verification from King Easar. Its less certain whether or not his replacement will. Still, since Tarwin's Gap is traditionally Shienar's place to meet the Trollocs, Lan will probably be able to get support from whoever was left in charge.

 

If I were Lan I wouldn’t want any Aiel in my army since their doctrine, tactics, and equipment are going to be largely ineffective against the trollocs hordes (unless he is going to use them exclusively as archers).

 

I agree with Master of the Blades' assessment of this statement. The Aiel are very effective against Trollocs. Thats why Aviendha was so shocked to find them at Imre Stand. Lan is fully aware of the Aiel's competence, and if tactics were worked out in advance, Aiel could serve as something like light cavalry and skirmishers to complement the Shienaran heavy cavalry and Lan's conscript infantry.

 

What it boils down to is; will Rand order them to help? The answer is probably yes, if he knows of the need in time and is clear of the Seanchan.

[rd2000]

Too bad those Shaido Aeil are too far south of Lan. They would have made a nice addition if someway could be worked out to get them close enough to join up with him. Maybe some of the brotherless Aeil will hear the call and join him though. I could see it happening in the storyline. The "brotherless" Aeil need to have something to fight for, those with the Shaido were already very disillusioned with the Shaido before Perrin and co. rescued Faille.

 

News of Lan marching to the last battle might draw quite a few of them.

[Guest cwestervelt]

Too bad those Shaido Aeil are too far south of Lan. They would have made a nice addition if someway could be worked out to get them close enough to join up with him. Maybe some of the brotherless Aeil will hear the call and join him though. I could see it happening in the storyline. The "brotherless" Aeil need to have something to fight for' date=' those with the Shaido were already very disillusioned with the Shaido before Perrin and co. rescued Faille.

 

News of Lan marching to the last battle might draw quite a few of them.[/quote']

 

The Shaido Aeil, and the Brotherless, are a broken people, looking hard to find themselves again. If they were close to Lan, they would still do what they are now. Returning to the Three-fold land.

[rd2000]

The Shaido would, but not necessarily the brotherless. And the Shaido might gain a clan chief in the near future. The Shaido are still something of a wildcard.

[Master of the Blades]

Why bring the Shaido into this?

 

We know from (KOD Outside the Gates) that the Shaido Spears in Malden are dead or prisoner to the Seanchan. There are septs still rallying but there fighting force has been broken. We also know that Therava is gathering the remains of the clan to return to the Waste with an oath never again to leave it.

 

The only unresolved issue with the Shaido is whether Gaul and Elyas can rescue Chiad and Bain.

[rd2000]

Why bring the Shaido into this?

 

We know from (KOD Outside the Gates) that the Shaido Spears in Malden are dead or prisoner to the Seanchan. There are septs still rallying but there fighting force has been broken. We also know that Therava is gathering the remains of the clan to return to the Waste with an oath never again to leave it.

 

The only unresolved issue with the Shaido is whether Gaul and Elyas can rescue Chiad and Bain.

 

 

I was only speculating. The Shaido might indeed be out of the storyline, but, they might not. The Shaido Wise Ones gave a chief permission to travel to Rhuidean to test for being Clan Chief. At the end of KOD, no word had been spoken of his success, or failure. There were still a sizeable force of Shaido near Perrin's forces after the battle at Malden. The Shaido are still a force to be reckoned with, should they choose.

[HotW Moiraine]

"Tarwin's Gap" this, and Tawrins Gap that, does anyone else realize the Trollocs are using the Ways to travel? And that Any of the chosen could easily use Traveling to get millions of trollocs anywhere the heck they want?

 

Basically it will be WW3, with an entirely new breaking and scattering of people. This is different from the Trolloc Wars, there are CHOSEN. Dreadlords, evil channeler's whatever, Traveling has been discovered(re). The Borderlands will not be the borderlands anymore. That Huge Borderland army is there for a reason. RJ placed it there to put a huge-arse battle at caemlyn when the Trollocs Pour in by the millions.

[Guest cwestervelt]

With the Waygates getting sealed, the vast majority of the Trollocs will need to come directly out of the Blight.

[HotW Moiraine]

They are getting sealed? Wow It's been a long time since I've read anything.

 

But except for occasional raids the Trollocs have had thousands of years to breed.. (which brings a nasty thought to mind of trolloc females...), and Traveling is still an issue.

[Guest cwestervelt]

If you have not read Knife of Dreams do not read further....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You have been warned:

Trollocs can't pass through Gateways.