Snakes and Foxes

[msbee]

Apologies for the long delay in replying - real life just keeps getting in the way. In fact that is why I don't post very often - I invariably find myself pulled away just as the discussion is getting interesting.

Anyway, I digress.

 

I've had another read through some relevant chapters, and I've decided to stick to my theory of the non-permanent sunshine.

As you say, there is nothing definitive on the subject, anywhere. In fact, I'd go so far as to say it's all very deliberately vague.

 

I can totally see how Elayne's thoughts in TOM 45 could be interpreted as referring to something that happened a while ago.

But, I disagree. The sentence before deals with that morning and I read the whole paragraph as dealing with that morning only.

And, even if we do assume she is referring to an event some days ago, it still doesn't say that it has been sunny since that time, only confirms it was sunny at the time.

I don't see any implication, one way or the other, unfortunately.

 

I disagree with you on the Gawyn quote too, it's just too vague to imply anything.

To me it sounds like there has been more sunshine in Caemlyn than anywhere else, but not constant. (I do have a pet theory to explain this, but it is so off-topic that I'll leave it for now - see my thead in Theoryland resources if you're very bored)

 

Faile in ch47 is even more vague than the others. Only confirms there is a patch of sun above the city at that moment.

However, we do have Perrin's PoV in ch 47 - he's at an inn in Caemlyn and it's raining.

None of this proves or disproves the permanent sunshine issue either way. I disagree with your interpretation but there's also plenty of room for mistakes in the chronology that would make nonsense of my arguments.

Still, on balance, I'm sticking to my guns here.

 

This quote again strongly implies that it's been sunny all the time. I don't understand why you say it confirms a cloud cover. What I'm saying is that the dragon test (and the gholam fight) took place the day before VOG. that's 12 days before that scene which can still counts as "about a week" (which is 10 days). Elayne talking to Gawyn in ToM, ch 33 happens a day earlier which is exactly one week after VOG.

 

I believe it is two days later, here's why -

Gawyn goes back to WT in time to join in the fight. Birgitte stops him talking to Elayne before he leaves as Elayne needs to rest and is not to be disturbed.

However, when Elayne wakes up, she thinks on how cross she was to find out that Gawyn had been forced to leave without seeing her. Either Birgitte did precisely what she said she would not ie.

disturb Elayne during the night in order to tell her that she would not allow Gawyn to disturb her (!), or, there has been a whole day in between those scenes.

Egwene's PoV (ch 38) supports this too. After her fight with Mesaana, she wakes and starts to make plans for the day.

She gets out of bed and finds the carnage around her, bonds Gawyn and gets to work.

It's not until the next night that she has a chance to send the dream message to Elayne (which she gets in TOM 45)

 

Having said all that, there is enough leeway in the timeline to shift things about so that the dragon tests fall on the day before VoG.

In fact, that's where I had it in earlier versions of the timeline.

My only reason for settling on the day I have hinges on that two day gap and the way it dictates the relationships between the Gawyn and Elayne PoVs.

As it is, that reference to "a week back" (Gawyn ch 33) remains at an actual week. If I move things it would have to be 9 days to line up with VoG.

 

I'm still hoping that AMOL will provide the answer to that one

[FarShainMael]

There are ten days to the WoT week:

 

http://encyclopaedia-wot.org/main/calendar.html

 

[msbee]

There are ten days to the WoT week:

 

http://encyclopaedia-wot.org/main/calendar.html

Umm, confused, not sure what you're trying to say.

I know there are ten days in the WOT week. That was my point.

[FarShainMael]

 

 

There are ten days to the WoT week:

 

http://encyclopaedia-wot.org/main/calendar.html

Umm, confused, not sure what you're trying to say.

I know there are ten days in the WOT week. That was my point.

I misread you, sorry. Ignore me!

 

[msbee]

@ FarShainMael

lol, no problem  :)

 

edit:
I've had another look at TOM 31 (Mat killing the gholam).
Turns out that I had it in the wrong place anyway. (I had meant to put it in at 831, not 832.)
Then, just to make it even more confusing, I spotted another contradictory clue.
So, I give up with this PoV. It's somewhere between 812 and 831.

[herid]

Apologies for the long delay in replying - real life just keeps getting in the way. In fact that is why I don't post very often - I invariably find myself pulled away just as the discussion is getting interesting.

Anyway, I digress.

 

I've had another read through some relevant chapters, and I've decided to stick to my theory of the non-permanent sunshine.

As you say, there is nothing definitive on the subject, anywhere. In fact, I'd go so far as to say it's all very deliberately vague.

I disagree. While there is nothing absolutely definitive there are plenty of quotes suggesting that it works exactly as I say:

Min ch 12 ( 2 days after VoG) - sunny in Tear.

Gawyn and Elayne conversation in ch33 (10 days after VoG)

 

 

 

Gawyn smiled, breathing in the scents of roses and mud around the pond. The scents of life. He glanced up at the sky as they walked. "I can't believe how much sunlight we've been seeing here. I'd nearly convinced myself that the perpetual gloom was something unnatural."

"Oh, it probably is," she said nonchalantly. "A week back the cloud cover in Andor broke around Caemlyn, but nowhere else."..."Something is happening to him. I can feel it, feel him changing. Cleansing. He drives back the clouds and makes the roses bloom."

 

There is a pretty clear implication here that the cloud cover remained gone after it broke over Caemlyn a week before.

In ch 37 (evening of the same day) the sky is still clear over Caemlyn. Ch 45 (11 or 12 days after VoG):

 

 

 

Morning light peeked through the drapes. Elayne sat back, feeling the powerful warmth through the bond with Rand that had appeared there. Light, but that was a wonderful sensation...

Part of Elayne's treatment lately had been to sit in her bed with the covers drawn back, letting the spring sunlight bake her skin.

 

Both of these quotes strongly imply continuous sunlight tied to the changes Elayne feels through the bond. The last part indicates a routine, meaning that Elayne has been sunbathing regularly.

Faile in ch 47 (13+ days after VoG)  is even more definitive

 

 

There was a distinct irregularity here. The clouds broke around Caemlyn. The cloud cover had been so universal elsewhere that Faile started upon seeing this. The clouds formed an open circle above the city, eerily even.

The only logical conclusion is that it's always sunny over Elayne because of the effect through the bond. What else can it possibly mean?   and if there is an effect like that why would it come and go? that makes no sense IMO. The only other possibility I can think of is that Rand restores normal weather over himself and over the girls so that it naturally rains sometimes but that's not how the effect of Rand's own presence is described in other scenes. The only instance contradicting this is recent rain mentioned in ch 47 when Perrin and Mat meet in Caemlyn. This is likely the same day as the earlier Faile scene so I'm not sure what to make of that. Could very easily be a mistake. There are plenty of those in ToM. This particular scene was pretty clearly moved around (BS mentioned that he shuffled many scenes in ToM) given that Mat forgets all about it when he tells Moiraine that Morgase is dead. It's also possible that Elayne Traveled somewhere and is out of town at the moment. Some later scenes in TOM and AMOL suggest that Rand's effect on the clouds over himself and the wonder girls weakens over time but that would likely  not explain the rain during the Mat and Perrin meeing.

 

I can totally see how Elayne's thoughts in TOM 45 could be interpreted as referring to something that happened a while ago.

But, I disagree. The sentence before deals with that morning and I read the whole paragraph as dealing with that morning only.

And, even if we do assume she is referring to an event some days ago, it still doesn't say that it has been sunny since that time, only confirms it was sunny at the time.

I don't see any implication, one way or the other, unfortunately.

 

I disagree with you on the Gawyn quote too, it's just too vague to imply anything.

To me it sounds like there has been more sunshine in Caemlyn than anywhere else, but not constant. (I do have a pet theory to explain this, but it is so off-topic that I'll leave it for now - see my thead in Theoryland resources if you're very bored)

 

Faile in ch47 is even more vague than the others. Only confirms there is a patch of sun above the city at that moment.

However, we do have Perrin's PoV in ch 47 - he's at an inn in Caemlyn and it's raining.

None of this proves or disproves the permanent sunshine issue either way. I disagree with your interpretation but there's also plenty of room for mistakes in the chronology that would make nonsense of my arguments.

Still, on balance, I'm sticking to my guns here.

 

This quote again strongly implies that it's been sunny all the time. I don't understand why you say it confirms a cloud cover. What I'm saying is that the dragon test (and the gholam fight) took place the day before VOG. that's 12 days before that scene which can still counts as "about a week" (which is 10 days). Elayne talking to Gawyn in ToM, ch 33 happens a day earlier which is exactly one week after VOG.

I believe it is two days later, here's why -

Gawyn goes back to WT in time to join in the fight. Birgitte stops him talking to Elayne before he leaves as Elayne needs to rest and is not to be disturbed.

However, when Elayne wakes up, she thinks on how cross she was to find out that Gawyn had been forced to leave without seeing her. Either Birgitte did precisely what she said she would not ie.

disturb Elayne during the night in order to tell her that she would not allow Gawyn to disturb her (!), or, there has been a whole day in between those scenes.

Egwene's PoV (ch 38) supports this too. After her fight with Mesaana, she wakes and starts to make plans for the day.

She gets out of bed and finds the carnage around her, bonds Gawyn and gets to work.

It's not until the next night that she has a chance to send the dream message to Elayne (which she gets in TOM 45)

 

ok, you may be right on this one.

[FarShainMael]

The only logical conclusion is that it's always sunny over Elayne because of the effect through the bond. What else can it possibly mean?

 

Don't forget that Elayne is pregnant with Rand's children..

 

If it were the bond, we should see similar effects around Min, Avi, and Alanna. Min is close to Rand anyway so that's no help. We haven't seen Alanna for a while. Do we have any info on Avi?

 

(Not that this is much help with the timeline, of course!)

[msbee]

@herid

We obviously interpret those passages differently.
My reason for being so pedantic over the wording is this quote:

 

Towers of Midnight book tour 16 November 2010 WH Smith, Paris, France - Jonathan B. reporting
Someone asked about why the clouds are clearing and whether they were clearing around the certain of the important women in the story. Brandon said that the clouds are clearing around Rand, but it has not been specified whether that's because of ta'veren, the Fisher King or another reason entirely. He said that the clouds had cleared over Aviendha  in the Waste and we have not seen whether the clouds have cleared over Tuon, but Tuon is still somewhat behind the other characters at the end of Towers of Midnight. He also said the clouds have not cleared over Seandar.

 

An Aes Sedai answer if ever I heard one. BS seems to answer the question, yet actually says absolutely nothing new. We are left with the impression the sky clears around Rand's women, when in fact he said nothing of the sort. Why so cagey? Why not just RAFO?
That's when I started wandering whether it was possible that the whole idea of sunshine around the girls is wrong. What if the sunshine follows Rand only? Part of the reason for setting out my timeline the way I did was to see if that is possible.
And it turns out that the chronology does allow it, as long as you can accept that Rand knows how to mask his bonds.
There are other anomalies too, for example the patch of sunshine above Min in Tear arrives just before Rand - that's days after VoG. So it can't be caused by Min's bond to Rand, it must be caused by Rand's arrival.

I've argued this before (here - particularly towards the end). See what you think.  

@FarShainMael
I'm not sure what to think of this one. It's possible, but seems unnecessary to me.
We know Rand has been moving around during TOM, so it seems simpler to ascribe the patches of sunshine to him rather than looking for an additional cause.
 

[herid]

@msbee I don't understand why you find that quote interesting. BS just didn't want to divulge information there and didn't.  Why should he? I see nothing strange there at all.  I also looked at the thread you linked too and I find the explanations you offer there completely unconvincing.  For one thing Rand is very poorly informed about what was going in in Caemlyn. he didn't even know that Elayne was pregnant before FOM.

BTW why   do you think that the sunlight patch above Min shows up in Tear just before Rand's arrival in chapter 12? I just reread it and I don't see anything to suggest that.

[msbee]

@ herid

I've seen this quote used to support the theory that the bond is causing patches of sun above the girls. Whereas I see it implying the opposite. That is what I find interesting

TOM 12 - Min's description of people's reaction to the sunshine:
"In the Stone's courtyards, Defenders in their striped sleeves and breeches kept stopping and looking up toward the open sky."
I suppose they might keep stopping to look even after 3 days, but to me it sounds like it only happened recently.

I find the explanations you offer there completely unconvincing.  For one thing Rand is very poorly informed about what was going in in Caemlyn. he didn't even know that Elayne was pregnant before FOM.

That's a shame. But since you can't be more specific, there is no point in continuing this discussion.
I'm afraid I have no idea what your point is about Rand, Caemlyn and lack of information

[herid]

as i said, I don't see the quote by BS supporting anything. he just doesn't want to reveal information.  Regarding my last point. perhaps I misunderstood what you were saying in the other thread is that Rand can mask his bond and thus conceal his whereabouts from his girls. so the oft mention sunshine in Caemlyn can be explained by Rand popping in for visits. That's what I don't buy. the one reason I gave was that Rand has only just found out that Elayne is pregnant in AMOL, ch 1 at FOM. If he was secretly spending so much time in Caemlyn he'd have to be deaf and blind not to know about it.

[msbee]

Ok, still not sure if I understand your point, but here goes.
I don't think Rand was popping in to see Elayne in Caemlyn. He didn't know that he's about to become a father, because he never met anyone who could or would tell him. Any minions or minor acquaintances would know it as a rumour at best and as such are hardly likely to bring it up in conversation with the Dragon Reborn.
I think he was doing something else. No idea what, but then BS has been very careful to conceal his movements in TOM.
There are however, tantalizing little clues that something is going on. Like Faile's PoV in ch34, where Perrin tells her that Rand is in danger. If you look at the full timeline, that just happens to line up  with one of the known patches of sunlight in Caemlyn. Now, I could speculate that Rand is checking out BT and you could (justifiably) tear that idea to shreds, but the fact remains that something is going on. If Perrin feels that Rand is in danger from somewhere on Jehannah Road then I am inclined to take it seriously.

So, Rand is moving around and doing stuff, there are anomalies which blow holes in the theory that the patches of sunshine are caused by Rand's bond with the girls, and all other arguments thrown at me so far can be explained by the simple expedient of Rand being able to mask his bonds. I would even argue there are occasions where this ability is strongly implied

Here's another one I've just remembered (TOM 56) -
Egwene walks towards Elayne, who had very recently arrived at FoM. Gawyn spots Morgase, runs to greet her while Egwene pauses and waits.
"Suddenly they splt, the dark thunderheads pulling back. The sky became an open field of blue, a deep, pure expanse. Elayne's eyes opened wide, and she turned on her horse, looking at Perrin's section of the camp."
That seems pretty clear, there is no blue sky above Elayne, it only clears later, when Rand arrives.

 

@FarShainMael - I suppose that last example disproves 'the babies have their own patch of sunshine' theory too. 

[Barid Bel Medar]

One thing though. Wouldn't Elayne note that Rand was in Caemlyn? She is bonded to him after all. 

 

It could be that he is masking the bond, however, we have no indication from any of the girls' PoV's that it has been done. It would be something they would comment on surely. 

[herid]

Ok, still not sure if I understand your point, but here goes.

I don't think Rand was popping in to see Elayne in Caemlyn.

I didn't say he was. But according to you he has been spending days (and some nights) in Caemlyn. It's  totally out of the question that he would not find out in all that time that Elayne was pregnant. He set spies on her at the very first opportunity at FOM. He wouldn't necessarily hear that Elayne is pregnant with his kids but that is not exactly hard to figure out.

He didn't know that he's about to become a father, because he never met anyone who could or would tell him. Any minions or minor acquaintances would know it as a rumour at best and as such are hardly likely to bring it up in conversation with the Dragon Reborn.

rumor at best?! Elayne's pregnancy is not at all a secret. And she is quite far a long that it's showing visibly. Faile remarks on that as a matter of fact in ch 47, when there is sunlight in Caemlyn so according to you Rand has to be nearby.

The Queen was a younger version of her mother. True, Elayne's face had angles that were more delicate than Morgase's. But she had that same red-gold hair and that same stunning beauty. She was tall, and was showing her pregnancy at the belly and through the chest.

-ToM, ch 47

 

I think he was doing something else. No idea what, but then BS has been very careful to conceal his movements in TOM.

There are however, tantalizing little clues that something is going on. Like Faile's PoV in ch34, where Perrin tells her that Rand is in danger. If you look at the full timeline, that just happens to line up  with one of the known patches of sunlight in Caemlyn. Now, I could speculate that Rand is checking out BT and you could (justifiably) tear that idea to shreds,

Rand has no idea what's going on in BT. He said as much to Naeff. In fact, this is another argument against your theory. If he was hanging around Caemlyn so much he should have checked out the BT.

but the fact remains that something is going on. If Perrin feels that Rand is in danger from somewhere on Jehannah Road then I am inclined to take it seriously.

This need not have anything  all to do with Caemlyn. At best it doesn't contradict your theory. But it certainly can not be used to justify it.  And as I said earlier in the thread, none of the quotes about sunlight over Caemlyn describe it as intermittent. Quite the opposite. If it was intermittent it would have surely been noticed and commented on.

So, Rand is moving around and doing stuff, there are anomalies which blow holes in the theory that the patches of sunshine are caused by Rand's bond with the girls, and all other arguments thrown at me so far can be explained by the simple expedient of Rand being able to mask his bonds. I would even argue there are occasions where this ability is strongly implied

 

Here's another one I've just remembered (TOM 56) -

Egwene walks towards Elayne, who had very recently arrived at FoM. Gawyn spots Morgase, runs to greet her while Egwene pauses and waits.

"Suddenly they splt, the dark thunderheads pulling back. The sky became an open field of blue, a deep, pure expanse. Elayne's eyes opened wide, and she turned on her horse, looking at Perrin's section of the camp."

That seems pretty clear, there is no blue sky above Elayne, it only clears later, when Rand arrives.

I've noticed that too but as I said there are indications that Rand's effect on the clouds weakens over time. Clouds over Merrilor mentioned in AMOL, prologue (when Leilwin gets there) and twice in ch 1, all while Rand is present there. Moreover, the last time it says explicitly that Rand's effect is weakening

 

“My Lord Dragon,” Kert said. “Are we . . . I mean . . .” He gulped and looked at the sky, and the clouds that seemed to be—despite Rand’s presence—creeping in on them. “Things look bad, don’t they?”

--AMOL, ch 1

If Rand's direct effect on the clouds is weakening, it should be even more pronounced for his effect through the bond. This is a lot more natural than assuming that Rand has been secretly camping in Caemlyn and somehow found how to hide the fact from Elayne by masking the bond.

[msbee]

One thing though. Wouldn't Elayne note that Rand was in Caemlyn? She is bonded to him after all. 

 

It could be that he is masking the bond, however, we have no indication from any of the girls' PoV's that it has been done. It would be something they would comment on surely. 

Since BS made all that effort to keep Rand's movements hidden in TOM, it strikes me that he wouldn't want to call attention to the fact that he may be moving around undetected. I'd be surprised to see it spelled out. It was Min in Tear that started me off on the idea.

In TOM ch 12, she's enjoying a patch of sunshine, observing other people's reaction to it, being badgered by Nynaeve and thinking that Rand is somewhere to the north. Then we get Alanna's disappearance, then Min feels Rand arrive from the north (not the Travelling room in the Stone) and they all go to greet him as he walks in from the city.

As I've already said, I think the patch of sunshine has been around a while, but not since VoG. So, how do we explain the time gaps?

The patch isn't there because of Min, but, it is there quite a while before she feels Rand arrive.

I'm thinking the answer could be as simple as Rand wanting to take a walk through Tear before announcing his presence at the Stone

 

There's also this vague wording - Min in Tear

"As far as she could determine through the bond, she was looking directly at him. Was he in Andor perhaps? Or in the Borderlands?"

Compare to this - TOM 33 - Elayne to Gawyn in Caemlyn, describing VoG

"Rand. Something he did. He was atop Dragonmount, I think. And then. . . "

Sitting in Caemlyn, Elayne is able to pipoint Rand to the top of a specific mountain near the Borderlands. (Shienar, IIRC)

Yet, three days after VoG Min is unsure where Rand is. All she knows is the direction. And Tear to Andor is a much shorter distance.

Then, a week or so after VoG (TOM 47), Elayne says outright that she does not know where Rand is (even though there is a patch of sunshine above her).

She has no reason to lie in that scene that I can see.

 

When I've discussed this before, it was pointed out that Rand would get no help from LTT on masking bonds. At the time I argued that he found out it was possible from Alanna (WH 25) and then probably came up with the weave himself.

But I'm begining to wander now.

How about this for a bit of pure speculaton: LTT knows all about paralis-nets, and it would not be unreasonable to suppose that one of the ornaments usually included is something akin to Aviendah's dull dagger. Maybe the patch of sun above Aviendha in Rhuidean (TOM 48) was caused by Rand looking through the remaining 'angreal stash to find something useful.

It would have come in handy at Maradon....

Maybe Cadsuanne has one on her net and doesn't even realise it...

[msbee]

rumor at best?!

I meant the fact that he is the father would be a rumour at best.

I don't see the problem. If the people close to him didn't tell him Elayne was pregnant, why on earth would someone else?

And, if he did hear a rumour somewhere, it would probably be that Elayne is pregnant with someone else's kid.

Would we see his reaction on screen? What would you expect to see? He's hardly in a postition to complain! Are you expecting him to be moping around?

Or, just maybe, he's pissed that Elayne is pregnant with someone else's kid and is deliberately avoiding her.

BS has been very careful about anything to do with Rand in TOM. Why on earth would this even get a mention? He doesn't get a single PoV!  

Meh

 

Rand has no idea what's going on in BT. He said as much to Naeff. In fact, this is another argument against your theory. If he was hanging around Caemlyn so much he should have checked out the BT.

Ok, now I'm really confused. How does the fact that Rand does not know what is really going on at BT prove that he did not visit Caemlyn?

 

This need not have anything  all to do with Caemlyn. At best it doesn't contradict your theory. But it certainly can not be used to justify it.

Umm, yes, that is why I used the words 'tantalizing clue' instead of proof.

 

And as I said earlier in the thread, none of the quotes about sunlight over Caemlyn describe it as intermittent. Quite the opposite. If it was intermittent it would have surely been noticed and commented on.

Are you serious? Explain to me why intermittent sunshine should be commented on.

Nowhere does it say the sunshine is permanent. In fact, there are descriptions of rain.

 

 

I've noticed that too but as I said there are indications that Rand's effect on the clouds weakens over time. Clouds over Merrilor mentioned in AMOL, prologue (when Leilwin gets there) and twice in ch 1, all while Rand is present there. Moreover, the last time it says explicitly that Rand's effect is weakening

 

“My Lord Dragon,” Kert said. “Are we . . . I mean . . .” He gulped and looked at the sky, and the clouds that seemed to be—despite Rand’s presence—creeping in on them. “Things look bad, don’t they?”

--AMOL, ch 1

If Rand's direct effect on the clouds is weakening, it should be even more pronounced for his effect through the bond. This is a lot more natural than assuming that Rand has been secretly camping in Caemlyn and somehow found how to hide the fact from Elayne by masking the bond.

I have no problem with your point about the clouds 'creeping in' in AMOL 1. The LB has started, Caemlyn is under attack, chaos, etc etc

However, the description in TOM 56 is pretty clear, Rand arrives and the clouds move, immediately. His effect has not weakened yet. As I see it, the idea that the effect, via Elayne's bond has somehow prophetically weakened in advance of the oncoming chaos is far more of a stretch than the idea that Rand may have visited Caemlyn in the last month or so.

 

I don't understand, what is the problem with Rand moving around and being able to hide his whereabouts? We know he moved around, and there are suggestions that he can not be located that easily any more (post above).

Here's a quote from that other thread

 

I don't think the idea that Rand actually went places whilst off-screen is all that difficult to believe. Nor do I think it is too much to believe that it might have occurred to Rand (the way to occurred to us readers many books ago)  that having 4 people who can track him might be a security risk. Maybe he just wanted to have some privacy. Hell, for all I know he may not even need to learn to mask the bond at all - maybe it's the pattern giving him protection so that the FS don't find him.

Anyway, Rand knows it is possible to partially mask the bond, he has plenty of reasons to do so and considering some of the other weaves invented by the main characters, I'd say this is small fry.

(just to be clear, I don't really think it's the pattern hiding Rand)

[herid]

 

rumor at best?!

I meant the fact that he is the father would be a rumour at best.

I don't see the problem. If the people close to him didn't tell him Elayne was pregnant, why on earth would someone else?

And, if he did hear a rumour somewhere, it would probably be that Elayne is pregnant with someone else's kid.

Would we see his reaction on screen? What would you expect to see? He's hardly in a postition to complain! Are you expecting him to be moping around?

Or, just maybe, he's pissed that Elayne is pregnant with someone else's kid and is deliberately avoiding her.

BS has been very careful about anything to do with Rand in TOM. Why on earth would this even get a mention? He doesn't get a single PoV!  

Meh

 

 

As I said, if Rand is hanging around Caemlyn so much he would definitely make inquiries about Elayne. He set spies on her the moment she got to Merrilor. It's inconceivable that he would not find out that she was pregnant if he was parked in Caemlyn for days. The fact is not at all a secret as I showed in the earlier quote. Figuring out that Elayne's pregnancy is his doing would not be exactly difficult. And It's specifically mentioned in AMOL that he only just found out about the pregnancy and it didn't happen some time ago off screen.

“They would not awaken her without good cause,” Rand said softly. “Considering her state.”

 

Pregnant. Pregnant with his children. Light! He had only just learned of it. Why hadn’t she been the one to tell him?

--AMOL, ch 1

 

 

 

Rand has no idea what's going on in BT. He said as much to Naeff. In fact, this is another argument against your theory. If he was hanging around Caemlyn so much he should have checked out the BT.

Ok, now I'm really confused. How does the fact that Rand does not know what is really going on at BT prove that he did not visit Caemlyn?

 

 Because he spent days in Caemlyn according to you and the Black Tower is only a few miles (less than 8) outside of Caemlyn. He definitely wanted to know what is going on in the BT yet he sat in Caemlyn for days without checking on it?

 

 

 

 

This need not have anything  all to do with Caemlyn. At best it doesn't contradict your theory. But it certainly can not be used to justify it.

Umm, yes, that is why I used the words 'tantalizing clue' instead of proof.

 

And as I said earlier in the thread, none of the quotes about sunlight over Caemlyn describe it as intermittent. Quite the opposite. If it was intermittent it would have surely been noticed and commented on.

Are you serious? Explain to me why intermittent sunshine should be commented on.

By all means. Rand's effect on the clouds is immediate an unnatural and acts like a light switch producing a big round hole in the clouds. If he was popping in and out of Caemlyn the switch would be  repeatedly turned on and off. People would have to be blind and stupid not to notice that and comment on such irregular going ons.  Nobody does. In fact, as I said earlier, both Gawyn and Egwene strongly imply that the sunlight is constant. Neither of them mention that it's intermittent. when they discuss it in ch 33 Elayne mentions that it started a week ago and that's it.

 

 

Nowhere does it say the sunshine is permanent. In fact, there are descriptions of rain.

 

 

I've noticed that too but as I said there are indications that Rand's effect on the clouds weakens over time. Clouds over Merrilor mentioned in AMOL, prologue (when Leilwin gets there) and twice in ch 1, all while Rand is present there. Moreover, the last time it says explicitly that Rand's effect is weakening

 

“My Lord Dragon,” Kert said. “Are we . . . I mean . . .” He gulped and looked at the sky, and the clouds that seemed to be—despite Rand’s presence—creeping in on them. “Things look bad, don’t they?”

--AMOL, ch 1

If Rand's direct effect on the clouds is weakening, it should be even more pronounced for his effect through the bond. This is a lot more natural than assuming that Rand has been secretly camping in Caemlyn and somehow found how to hide the fact from Elayne by masking the bond.

I have no problem with your point about the clouds 'creeping in' in AMOL 1. The LB has started, Caemlyn is under attack, chaos, etc etc

The whole land is in chaos and has been for a while. This didn't just start with Caemlyn. Nothing is growing, the Borderlander towers are being overrun, the Trollocs are advancing south etc. All of this started before Caemlyn.

However, the description in TOM 56 is pretty clear, Rand arrives and the clouds move, immediately. His effect has not weakened yet.

this only speaks of his direct effect and not of his effect through the bond. And that very evening there are clouds over Merrilor so even his direct effect is weakened.

 

As I see it, the idea that the effect, via Elayne's bond has somehow prophetically weakened in advance of the oncoming chaos is far more of a stretch than the idea that Rand may have visited Caemlyn in the last month or so.

 

I don't understand, what is the problem with Rand moving around and being able to hide his whereabouts?

because this theory has way too many holes for my liking, especially compared to the more natural explanations. I noted some above and I haven't even mentioned the question of how Rand suddenly learned to mask the bond and do it so cleverly that Elayne feels the warmth through the bond all the time but can be fooled about his location. You haven't offered an adequate explanation for this that I have seen.

 

Mind you, for all of my arguments I'm not against your theory in principle. It does offer an interesting alternative to the conventional explanation of the sunlight effect as well as other things you have not mentioned  such as the fact that the food from Caemlyn tastes good ("the good soup")  but the one from Tear doesn't before Rand shows up there.

[TootThatHorn]

I don't understand why the assumption is being made that Rand's effect is weakening; if anything I would call it the GLotD's effect is strengthening.  The state of the LB at this point is extremely obvious in this fact.  The lightsiders aren't winning right now, in fact they are coming close to being up against the ropes.  This to me screams of the DO's influence being that much stronger and Rand has plenty of catching up to do.

[Barid Bel Medar]

I don't understand why the assumption is being made that Rand's effect is weakening; if anything I would call it the GLotD's effect is strengthening.  The state of the LB at this point is extremely obvious in this fact.  The lightsiders aren't winning right now, in fact they are coming close to being up against the ropes.  This to me screams of the DO's influence being that much stronger and Rand has plenty of catching up to do.

 

I agree, but I think the statement of Rand's effect weakening is being used to say the same thing. I don't think anyone thinks Rand's influence is weakening because of himself.  Just a different way of saying the same thing. 

 

But yeah, most definitely it is a product of the DO gaining strength. 

[herid]

@ TootThatHorn That's just semantics and a different way of saying the same thing. The DO is getting stronger so relatively speaking Rand's effect is getting weaker.

 

edit: ninjaed by BBM.

[msbee]

Before I address the other points let me just clarify a couple of things that may be causing confusion.
I had assumed that you had read the arguments on the other thread - but maybe they're not very clear. I had also assumed that you'd looked at the full timeline, which shows how many times I think Rand has visited Caemlyn.
I'm not trying to prove that Rand has been 'hanging around Caemlyn', or even staying for any length of time. I have no fixed opinion on how long he has stayed there. I do however, think he visited briefly on the day of VoG and probably twice since. The reason why I am unwilling to guess how long he stayed each time is because we have no way of knowing how long his patch of sunshine persists after he's gone. Maybe it follows him around like a faithful puppy, but, maybe, it hangs around for a while in the same way that his effect on food lasts for a while. (say like Almen and his apples)
In short, I don't think Rand has been necessarily 'camping' in Caemlyn, or even staying nights, though he may have.

As I said, if Rand is hanging around Caemlyn so much he would definitely make inquiries about Elayne. He set spies on her the moment she got to Merrilor. It's inconceivable that he would not find out that she was pregnant if he was parked in Caemlyn for days. The fact is not at all a secret as I showed in the earlier quote. Figuring out that Elayne's pregnancy is his doing would not be exactly difficult. And It's specifically mentioned in AMOL that he only just found out about the pregnancy and it didn't happen some time ago off screen.

Now that I've stopped to think about it, I realize that I've failed to mention the obvious answer to this one.

There is no way Rand would have gone anywhere near Elayne, the palace, or any person they both know - for exactly the same reason he hasn't seen her for over 5 months now. The last thing he wants is for people to make a connection between them as that would expose Elayne to unnecessary danger (not to mention the raft of other problems it would cause). After all, he went to a lot of trouble to disguise himself the last time they met.

I doubt he would make any enquiries about Elayne in Caemlyn. He has spies in place already to provide political and military information (or at least Bashere and the others do) and if he wants personal information he'd ask someone in his entourage not some random
stranger. If he's hiding somewhere around Caemlyn he's far less likely to hear gossip. Personally, I find it more incredible that he didn't find out about the pregnancy from someone in his entourage, but, as you've already pointed out, we know he didn't.

 

Because he spent days in Caemlyn according to you and the Black Tower is only a few miles (less than 8) outside of Caemlyn. He definitely wanted to know what is going on in the BT yet he sat in Caemlyn for days without checking on it?

What makes you so sure he didn't try? Remember the BT Dreamspike must be up already. I would imagine that would make him quite cautious. Come to think of it, does he even know what a dreamspike is? His comments in TOM 51 suggest he may not. He may also have been meeting with Logain at this point - it would explain his comment later that Logain should be at BT (TOM 51).
As I've already said, I know I can't prove that Rand was looking at BT, but you're going to have an even harder time proving he didn't.

 

By all means. Rand's effect on the clouds is immediate an unnatural and acts like a light switch producing a big round hole in the clouds. If he was popping in and out of Caemlyn the switch would be  repeatedly turned on and off. People would have to be blind and stupid not to notice that and comment on such irregular going ons. Nobody does. In fact, as I said earlier, both Gawyn and Egwene strongly imply that the sunlight is constant. Neither of them mention that it's intermittent. when they discuss it in ch 33 Elayne mentions that it started a week ago and that's it.

Oh ok, you mean that a rapid change would be noticable.
Well, it is noticed - TOM 45 -  Elayne in Caemlyn, "The moment she'd began feeling it [warmth through her bond], the cloud cover around Andor had broken." We can call it switching on if you like.

I wouldn't expect any more descriptions. This period in Caemlyn only gets 6 PoVs in total. By your own reckoning I should ignore the first one anyway (29 - Elayne testing the dragons, cloudy) and there's Perrin's in ch 47 where it's raining and Mat, Perrin and Thom have better things to talk about. Faile in ch 47 has only just arrived, is seeing it for the first time and has no idea how long it's been there, so she can't comment. The remaining two (33 and 37) both involve Gawyn, are only hours apart and take place during what may well be Rand's first visit since VoG so there hasn't been much switching on and off to be talked about.

Not only do I disagree that there is a 'strong implication', it is clearly contradicted by a description of rain, there's no getting around it, the sunshine is not constant.

 

because this theory has way too many holes for my liking, especially compared to the more natural explanations. I noted some above and I haven't even mentioned the question of how Rand suddenly learned to mask the bond and do it so cleverly that Elayne feels the warmth through the bond all the time but can be fooled about his location. You haven't offered an adequate explanation for this that I have seen.

Please don't put words in my mouth. I have never said that Elayne feels the warmth through the bond all the time, nor have I said that she has been fooled about Rand's location. The first is the opposite to what I think, the second simply inaccurate. The idea of how Rand may have learned to partially mask the bond was covered in the other thread and mentioned in one of the earlier posts. I thought you said you have read it.

You questioned Rand's ability to hide, but no one else has ever offered any explanation on how the girls fail to locate him.
Rand's ability to invent a weave to mask a bond has been held in doubt, yet everyone accepts Egwene's and Nynaeve's inventions  with equanimity.
You keep saying it is permanently sunny in Caemlyn, when the text flat out contradicts it and provides other inconsistencies elsewhere.
You say there are holes in this theory, I disagree
The questioning is fair enough, but all that anybody has actually been able to point out so far, is the lack of direct evidence. I knew that already (and said so).
The theory that the sunshine patches are caused through the bond also lacks any direct evidence, and there are holes in it, fairly big ones.

[herid]

 

ok, we are starting to go in circles on our arguments here but let me just address one point. You say we don't know how long sunlight sticks around after Rand leaves. In fact we do know that it gets cloudy pretty quickly.

In chapter 15 Nynaeve remarks that the clouds break above Tear when Rand returns (not clear where Min is at the moment, unfortunately). The scene takes place in the morning. Nyn and Naeff investigate a bubble of evil which just happened and one of the affected people died drinking a mug of morning ale. In the same scene it's mentioned that Rand has only left town this same morning. So if clear skies linger after Rand is gone they don't linger very long at all. We are talking a couple of hours at best here, and likely less. So Rand really must have spent a long time in Caemlyn to make your theory work. In that time he apparently didn't learn about Elayne's pregnancy, didn't investigate the BT which is just a few miles out of town and didn't contact Mat who is rather famous in Caemlyn at the time none of which I find plausible.

[KrisAnton]

Why do you take rain to be a bad thing? I live in a drought stricken area, we LOVE the rain. Things are going WELL when it's raining. Raining is just another sign that all is as it should. The clouds used to threaten rain for months but never dropped anything until they used the Bowl.

 

Further, and mostly unrelated, but what if Rand's effect on the land waxes and wanes with his confidence or his belief that the Light can conquer the Shadow? He's feeling good, things are awesome: sunshine. He just finds out Elayne is preggers: whoops, a few clouds pop up.

[msbee]

ok, we are starting to go in circles on our arguments here

Yeah, the thought had occurred to me :)

Good point about the sun in Tear - I'd forgotten that one.

I think we should probably just agree to disagree now - you're trying to prove a negative and I don't have any direct proof.

(And I need to get ready to attend a wedding - I don't expect to be sober enough to argue coherently for quite some time.)

 

Why do you take rain to be a bad thing? I live in a drought stricken area, we LOVE the rain. Things are going WELL when it's raining. Raining is just another sign that all is as it should. The clouds used to threaten rain for months but never dropped anything until they used the Bowl.

 

Further, and mostly unrelated, but what if Rand's effect on the land waxes and wanes with his confidence or his belief that the Light can conquer the Shadow? He's feeling good, things are awesome: sunshine. He just finds out Elayne is preggers: whoops, a few clouds pop up.

I think you may have misunderstood the arguments. I don't think rain is bad thing. We were just using weather patterns to try and pinpoint other events.

Your other point is very much related and even possible. The reason I'm ignoring it is that I remember nothing from the books to even imply it exists.