I see dead people

[Paula Sayles]

I am not as expert on all of the facts as everyone that has posted on this topic, but what if there was a way that the Lews Therin in Rand's head could be killed or die (as he longs to do)without Rand having to die? I was not thinking so much about integration (dis or re) as I was about LTT's spirit actually being freed from Rand's mind so that he could go back to the land of the dead where he belongs?

 

Does anyone have any thoughts on that?

 

As far as the dead walking, I was kind of thinking of it as kind of a side-effect of the pattern coming undone, as Robert said. I wasn't looking or thinking hard enough to discern a pattern to their appearance. If the dead are walking and Brigitte Silverbow has been reborn from the AoL, why couldn't some of the ghosts be folks from that age?

[Jellybelly]

Rand's spirit and Lews Therin's spirit is the same. Thus, there is no way the Lews Therin aspect of their common soul could be killed.

[RobertAlexWillis]

First, cool avatar, better that ur old one.

 

Thanks. Auron is clearly the coolest Final Fantasy character ever developped. (Bring on the Sephy an Cloud fan-girls!)

 

Second, Its pretty clear from the books that Goederan, is the ONLY good sized settlement in Tear besides Tear itself.

 

A good sized "village" would not be considered a good sized "settlement" when the frame of reference is a city the size of Tear, at least not to me. But really, its a moot point, since I have no problem with the village being from the time of Moreina.

 

As far as LTT being confused, my point wasn't that he's completly lucid and fighting Rand for control, my point is that LTT is clearly nuts. So who the hell knows what he would do if he saw someone from the past? He is constantly moaning about Elenya, i suspect he woulld go completely nutso if he saw her ghost. I'm not saying it will happen, I'm not saying that it will reintegrate rand/LTT if it does. I'm saying that I think it could be a plausible method for the reintegration of LTT and Rand.

 

Well, actually, above you said:

 

Suddenly Rand/LTT sees the ghost of himself or someone else known to LTT, perhapss Eleyna, and realizes that he is in fact the crazy person living in another body, and accomplishes the near imposible task of seperating the personalities by virtue of giving up.

(I added the bold)

 

Separating the personalities is not reintegration, so my comments were based on what you said the first time. And, since you posed it as a possibility, I'm disagreeing with it. I don't think he'll see any Age of Legends ghosts, and if it did happen, I don't think it would do Rand any good. I'm not saying I have PROOF it won't happen, I just don't think it will.

 

As for us not seeing anything before the Shiotan period. So? From what we have seen it is likely that these manifestations are getting bigger and further back in time.

 

I don't think there is much time in the present for them to go much further into the past. Already we've seen a massive ripple through all reality (in As If The World Were Fog chapter 26 of KoD), and if the Pattern unravels enough to get back to the Age of Legends, when the Dark One was touching the world before, I think it would rip the Pattern apart. So, I don't think it can go that far.

 

Also, I don't think there is more than about a month between the end of Knife of Dreams, and the start of Tarmon Gai'don. Thats opinion though. Mine just disagrees with yours. You named a whole lot of things that have to happen (Mat in the Tower of Ghenjei, the ta'veren getting back together, etc.) but with Travelling, that could all take place pretty quickly.

[cloglord]

Are you saying that Lan won't make it to Tarwin's gap before TG?

 

can't think of any way for him to gather the rest of the borderlanders, short of actually riding through each country, collecting them as he goes. There is no way that he would be able to ride from World's end in Saldea to Tarwin's gap in Shienar in less than a month. If he travels, then he's oing to have a hard time collecting his army, unless you think all those soldiers are going to start gathering at centralized collection points, and aes sedai are going to start showing up to convieniently gate them to Shienar.

 

If Lan will ride to Tarwin's Gap in time for TG there has to be enough time for him to get there. If there is time for Lan to ride to TG, there is time for the ghosts to rewind another 1500 years....if that is what is going on.

[RobertAlexWillis]

Are you saying that Lan won't make it to Tarwin's gap before TG?

 

Actually, yes, unless someone ... like maybe his wife ... finds him and lets him Travel.

 

There is no way that he would be able to ride from World's end in Saldea to Tarwin's gap in Shienar in less than a month.

 

Totally correct, I estimate it would take 3, maybe 4 if he's staging along the way.

 

Look ... its not like there are tons of soldiers sitting around doing nothing in the borderlands. Most of their army is down south. Lan's role in Tarmon Gai'don, whether its actually at Tarwin's Gap or not, is not going to be pivotal. He could gather maybe 50,000 if he had months and rode the whole way. That is a token force at best.

 

And why wouldn't the Aes Sedai, or at least some Aes Sedai or Asha'man, help them with some gateways? Lan has friends in both groups. Nynaeve is with Rand and knows roughly where he is, and Rand can get messages to lots of people, now that he's back in touch through Logain. Not to mention the word is going out to the whole Borderlands (and other places) at once, via the Aldragoran pigeon network.

[Thor]

What is actually the distance between the sea and Tarwin's Gap?

 

Horse can travel 100 km pretty easily per day, if you have two horses alternating, you can probably make 170 km a day easily.

[RobertAlexWillis]

A little more than 2,000 miles (based on the 400 league, 1,600 mile distance from Tar Valon to Tear). Given the differences in a Randland measurements (see the Glossary of The Dragon Reborn under length, units of), one Randland mile equals 0.947 real miles. So, estimating 1894 real miles, that would be 3048 kilometers.

 

Your rate of 170 km per day is insane, Thor. Horses cannot travel 100 km per day easily, and alternating horses doesn't give you an extra 70 km per day. Besides, we're talking about an army here, not one man riding alone.

 

The Band can move about as fast as any army in Randland, and 60 to 70 km per day would be their top speed. At that rate (which is generous, since Lan would be building his army on the way), it will take 44 days for Lan to go from World's End to Tarwin's Gap.

 

A realistic assessment of his speed would be about half that, since the "army" he would be gathering is not a trained, cohesive unit. With all the staging and organizing he would have to do, I put his speed at half that of the Band, which means 88 days, or about 3 months.

[Thor]

The healthiest human beings can run 10km in about 26 to 30 minutes.

Last time I checked, the running capability of horses is far superior to that of a human. 100km is easily a safe distance to run for one horse without exhausting the horse.

 

And alternating horses does give you a much higher distance, it allows them to move without extra burden that they are not used to.

 

The band is foot, Lan rides Mandarb, the question is, what are the rest of Malkieri? Horse? Pike? What?

[RobertAlexWillis]

I give up.

[rd2000]

lol, I feel for you Robert. Don't give up the fight though. Some people just like to argue for the arguements sake.

 

Now, to keep this on-topic. Considering that Lan can not travel 24/7, has to rest, recruit, etc., I would say Robert's timeline is pretty close. People are not machines. Just research info from the pony express days if you want to know how far a horse can travel in a day. It took weeks even then for a letter to travel accross the country. And Lan is not delivering mail, he doesn't have a network of fresh horses waiting on him, and he must stop to rest himself and/or the horse. All of this adds time.

[Mat is the Boss]

The question is whether, or not, Lan reach Tarwins Gap before the trolloc invasion?

 

If he does reach Tarwins Gap before the invasion, then Rand has better time to deal with the Seanchan and the Black Tower than I thought. I fear that Tarmon Gaidon are weeks away, not months, as you say that Lan will need.

 

I must conclude that either Lan moves faster then you suggest, or he will be to late to stop the invasion.

[cloglord]

Rumor travels faster than horses however. Remember, Nyn, asked that Malkieri to send word that Lan was riding to Tarwin's Gap. He thought that he had contacts as far away as Shienar, and that he would absolutely send her message to every contact he had. A rumor like the golden crane flighing again would spread like wildfire throuhgout the borderlands. I think that Robert is probably right to say that it would take three months to march an army across the borderlands, but remember he is a warder traveling alone for most of Saldea, and by the time he reaches the shienarian border, I would guess that the shienarians would have heard of him coming, and organized themselves. He would only have to spend alot of time in Kandor and Arafel going at the rate that Robert suggested. That might speed things up a bit.

 

Oh, and Thor. I work with horses for a living. You are crazy. The sustainable working speed of a horse is roughly twice the walking speed of a person. I can walk around 5 miles per hour for about 8 to 10 hours a day. that's about 80 km per day. That would make 160 km per day for a horse that is being ridden. If you worked it 10 hours per day. That horse would need at least 2 hours of rest in that working period. So you could make it 160KM/day if you went from sunup to sundown every day. (Since there would just barely be 12 hours of sunlight per day by this time in the books.)

 

A horse working under those conditions would need roughly 22 pounds of high quality grass or grass hay, and approximately 7 pounds of oats.

Using Robert's 2000 miles estimate, you would need 20 days to make the journey, and you would need to start your trip with 140 lbs of oats. So its a good thing that you postulate a second horse, because you'd need a pack horse to carry your supplies and horse feed if your were traveling 160km per day. But then again a second horse would mean an additional 140 lbs of oats to begin your non-stop journey through the borderlands. Of course you would then need a third horse then to do your horse switching idea...........

 

Further, horses survive optimally with between 16-18 hours of grazing per day. The time neccesary for your superhorses would, by nessecity, be very abreviated. Since Lan left from World's end in Aine

(or April,) there should be plenty of rich green grasses for your horses to eat, but as any horseperson should know that allowing a horse to gorge themselves on fresh green grass during a limited grazing period is an excellent way for them to founder. Since the period before winter was sparse and dry in Randland, and has only recently thawed at all, it would mean that your horses, would likely have been used to a diet of whatever hay could be found, and the sudden switch in diet, feeding times, and exersize levels would likely cause them to go lame. So to be safe you would probably need to feed them hay instead. That's 880 Pounds of hay for your two horses for the journey, better bring a wagon. Of course if you are pulling a wagon......

 

So, two horses and a person traveling at the speed you suggest, is possible. So long as you have a truck carrying fodder for your horses to each stop ahead of you, if you ride the horses from sunup to sundown everyday, if you don't stop to reprovision yourself, if you don't stop to reruit an army, if you don't wait for said army to keep up, and if you don't mind sitting in a saddle for the next 2o days, which is really the minimum amount of time that it could possibly be done.

[Foxy_Sox]

And if you had a truck.....

 

Rand should have hurried progress on that steam wagon.

[Mat is the Boss]

And there might still be some snow in the Borderlands, where spring come later then in the south.

 

Personally I doubt Lan will try to recruit anyone, he don`t want to lead people into the Blight. He will allow people to accompany him, because Nynaeve tricked him, but he won`t waste any time trying to recruit men for his army.

Not that he will need to....

[Thor]

Oh' date=' and Thor. I work with horses for a living. You are crazy. The sustainable working speed of a horse is roughly twice the walking speed of a person. I can walk around 5 miles per hour for about 8 to 10 hours a day. that's about 80 km per day. That would make 160 km per day for a horse that is being ridden. If you worked it 10 hours per day. That horse would need at least 2 hours of rest in that working period. So you could make it 160KM/day if you went from sunup to sundown every day. (Since there would just barely be 12 hours of sunlight per day by this time in the books.)

 

[/quote']

 

What in the world? I said one horse will make 100km per day and you say it will make 170km per day, but you are calling me crazy? Can no one on these forums read?

 

No, Lan himself will definitely make it in time.

 

As I said, the real question is, what kind of units are the rest of the Malkieri? Horse or foot?

[cloglord]

Hey Thor how come you can't read what I type, and not what you think I typed? :twisted: I mean come on, jeez, guys, what's ur problem anyway? :(

 

 

That would make 160 km per day for a horse that is being ridden.

 

I didn't say 170 km/day, I said 160km/day. I also said that that speed would not be maintainable, and that you would kill your horse. I also said, that if by some miracle you could get superhorses to work at their maximum capacity, while caring for them in a manner that would allow them to maintain that pace, it would still take 20 days to make the trip.

 

The point is that you don't know what the hell you are talking about.

 

As for the "Real" question, there are no Malkieri forces. Solidiers that were 20 @ the time of the fall of Malkier, (those that didn''t die defending their homeland,)would be 70 by now. Surely a force to make the DO tremble! Do 3 dudes in wheelchairs count as calvary units? Do you think they could ride 160km/day?

[RobertAlexWillis]

OK. I've recovered from my bout of childish peevishness. I officially no longer give up.

 

Now ...

 

What in the world? I said one horse will make 100km per day and you say it will make 170km per day, but you are calling me crazy? Can no one on these forums read?

 

As usual, my dear, dear, Thor, you failed to read, or at least to understand, the full post made. It strikes me as highly ironic that you are, yourself, guilty of the things you insinuate about others.

 

Cloglord was saying that a horse, under ideal conditions, returning to a nice stable every night, having a rider who isn't wearing/carrying eighty to a hundred or so pounds of equipment/supplies, and being fed highly nutritious food every night, could make 160 km (or 99 miles) in a day.

 

But Lan, and everyone following him, is not riding under those conditions. Which is why cavalry units historically never moved 99 miles per day.

 

First of all, that 99 miles per day number isn't going to hold up. Cloglord reached it by doubling what he felt was a reasonable movement rate for a person, but very few humans, carrying all their own fighting equipment, food, and other supplies with them, are going to average 45 miles per day. Even the Aiel don't move that fast, and they aren't carrying the heavy equipment that the Borderlanders would be. By the same token, cavalry units are not going to average 99 miles per day, especially over a long period of time. You cannot ride a fully loaded horse for 10 hours a day, every day for months, without the horse playing out eventually.

 

Then there is the complication of the fact that he is gathering an army. The more people added to a group, the slower the group as a whole moves. Armies gather something called "baggage trains". You see, armies have to eat. A man travelling alone can just stop at a farmhouse, or a village inn. But an army has to cook its own meals, and bring the food with it. Lan isn't going to let his army pillage the Borderlands as they ride through. So they'll have to buy or bring their own food. An army has to set up camp every night, and take it down every morning. The leaders of an army have to meet, and plan, and coordinate. And baggage trains mean wagons, which never move as fast as horsemen alone. But unless the horsemen are going to eat their horses or their shoes, they have to wait for the baggage train with their food in it.

 

That means they move slower.

 

Lan will be lucky ... LUCKY to average 30 miles per day with his army. That means two and a half months from World's End to Tarwin's Gap (assuming that's where he's going).

 

For comparison, in The Great Hunt, chapter 33 A Message from the Dark, Loial tells Rand that it would take Ingtar's group months to go from Cairhien to Toman Head (a distance only 100-150 miles longer than Lan's trip to Tarwin's Gap). An army that is just getting organized along the way is not going to move faster than Ingtar's elite cavalry group, whatever fanciful notions are in your head.

 

Of course, you don't believe the things Jordan says about his own world, so I'm not sure why I bothered quoting anything to you.

 

But there it is. Lan is not going to make a magically fast ride across the Borderlands, at least, not if he wants to have anyone with him when he gets to Tarwin's Gap.

 

Or.....!

 

Maybe, just maybe, his wife, who deliberately set up this situation, might just show up and lend a hand. What a shockingly absurd idea, I know, but it could happen!

 

Does anyone have a napkin? I got sarcasm on my chin.

[cloglord]

And now for some intelligent discourse on the matter.

 

Robert, I agree that I reached that number by doubling the ideal walking pace for humans. Of course I do not claim to be in good enough shape to maintain that pace even for the course of a day or two, but I thought I'd give Lan the benefit of the doubt. However that of course says nothing of the staying power of Mandarb, but I suspect that Mandarb, as has been described, is a reasonably well tended horse with a measure of stamina.

 

As for Ingtar saying it would take months to go from Carhien to Toman Head, it should be noted that that march would have been without the benefit of good roads, or required them to return north to use the Borderland road system. Either would require more time than a straight march along the borderlands.

 

Thirdly, Nynaeve has already helped Lan in gathering his army in one place. She secured a promise from the Malkieri in KoD to send a message to every merchant he was in contact with. That message was that Lan was riding to Tarwin's Gap for the last battle. He thought to himself that he would send that message, that it would require a great many pidgeons to do so, and that he had contacts as far away as Shienar. Moreso, he has a reputation in the borderlands as a Malkieri, and his message would likely be believed.

 

In effect Nynaeve has managed to credibly notify a great number of borderlanders that Lan will meet them at Tarwin's gap. Lan doesn't need to create an army, he won't have to move with an army. They will be there waiting for him when he gets there. Which means that if Lan were to pull a super march he could be there in as little as a month, and he'd only have to wait for the Saldeans to catch up, as everyone else would have had a headstart on him.

 

I don't think that Nynaeve is likely to show up and travel any armies, as she didn't even have the time for one last night with Lan. She doesn't want to leave Alivia with Rand.

[RobertAlexWillis]

Thirdly, Nynaeve has already helped Lan in gathering his army in one place. She secured a promise from the Malkieri in KoD to send a message to every merchant he was in contact with. That message was that Lan was riding to Tarwin's Gap for the last battle. He thought to himself that he would send that message, that it would require a great many pidgeons to do so, and that he had contacts as far away as Shienar. Moreso, he has a reputation in the borderlands as a Malkieri, and his message would likely be believed.

 

In effect Nynaeve has managed to credibly notify a great number of borderlanders that Lan will meet them at Tarwin's gap. Lan doesn't need to create an army, he won't have to move with an army. They will be there waiting for him when he gets there. Which means that if Lan were to pull a super march he could be there in as little as a month, and he'd only have to wait for the Saldeans to catch up, as everyone else would have had a headstart on him.

 

Thats the best argument I've heard yet. If Lan is moving alone, then a month becomes conceivable.

 

I don't think that Nynaeve is likely to show up and travel any armies, as she didn't even have the time for one last night with Lan. She doesn't want to leave Alivia with Rand.

 

Well, since Rand is coming north as soon as he sets up with Tuon, that shouldn't be a problem. Rand likes Lan, remember? He might even go along and make a gateway or two himself.

 

So ... if the idea is to gather an army to Tarwin's Gap, and have it waiting when Lan arrives, then it becomes feasible. Lan has already shown that, travelling alone, he can make very good time.

 

If he has to gather the army with him on the way, then its going to take months.

[Thor]

Hehe, strange, I have already said that Lan will definitely make it in time, yet somehow you didn't agree. Then cloglord says it and you agree? Oh dear. :evil:

 

And the speed that I gave (100km per day) is far lower than what cloglord gave yet even at my speed, they will still make it in time.

 

By the way, who came up with this one month thing?

 

You still haven't even said anything about what type of units are the Malkieri. So I ask AGAIN, are they foot, or calvary?

 

Ideal conditions? I have already told you that the ideal human can run 10km in about 26 to 30 minutes, even the worst horses are far far better runners than the best human. You don't need ideal conditions to go 100km per day.

 

And if you don't believe that having two horses can push it up almost to 160-170 km per day, suit yourselves, I only know that the Mongols used that tactic and were able to sweep across the steppes like wildfire.

[Mat is the Boss]

Lan don`t want anyone to follow him to the Blight, so he certainly won`t waste any time trying to gather more people. He will allow people to follow him only because Nynaeve made do it, but will probably try to make people change their mind about joining him. Lan will try to reach Tarwins Gap as quickly as possible, the question is if he gets there in time.

[Thor]

We were kind of discussing that already. :P

[RobertAlexWillis]

Hehe, strange, I have already said that Lan will definitely make it in time, yet somehow you didn't agree. Then cloglord says it and you agree? Oh dear.

 

Cloglord gave other reasons that made sense. You didn't.

 

And the speed that I gave (100km per day) is far lower than what cloglord gave yet even at my speed, they will still make it in time.

 

No. If it is "they" that means he has an army, and he WONT make it. It is ONLY if he is travelling alone that HE will make it. THEY will have to be waiting for him there.

 

By the way, who came up with this one month thing?

 

That was the original basis for the argument, which had to do with the amount of time I though the Pattern had before it completely unravelled or Tarmon Gai'don had to be fought.

 

You don't need ideal conditions to go 100km per day.

 

I would love ... just LOVE to watch you do it. Go 100 km per day, for one week, and at the end, fight me. I'm alot smaller than a Trolloc, so it should be no problem, right?

 

Moron.

 

And if you don't believe that having two horses can push it up almost to 160-170 km per day, suit yourselves, I only know that the Mongols used that tactic and were able to sweep across the steppes like wildfire.

 

The Mongols were light cavalry, not heavy cavalry, and they lived on their horses. Also, you have no evidence of such a timeline. Show me one scrap of proof that Mongol armies regularly moved 160 km per day. I don't believe your word.

[Mat is the Boss]

You`re discussing how long it will take Lan to reach Tarwins Gap, not if he reach it before the trolloc invasion. Whether Lan need 2 weeks, or 3 months, I fear he will come after the invasion has begun. If he reach Tarwins Gap before the trollocs, he has no chance of stopping them without help from Rand.

[Thor]

Moron.

 

 

Well' date=' there is only one response to that.

 

[img']http://www.orlyowl.com/orly.jpg[/img]

 

And in another thread I already asked, what is the terrain at Tarwins Gap? If it is really narrow, I fail to see why the shadowspawns can't be held back.