[BASIC] A Long Walk - Game over. Town Wins!

[hazelkrs1]

I'm about to start audit, will post more thoughts later

[hazelkrs1]

What the hell? Only one mafia left changes this. I'm looking back over the votes to see who to clear. I know you all will want to kill me first impression but I am asking for a bit of time to look this over.

 

I believe Darthe came to this strange conclusion because of the night scene here (pay attention to the underlined proportion):

 

You lay down. Committed to not sleeping tonight. No way you are sleeping among these vipers. Some time later, while counting the stars, you notice a figure rise. You become more alert as you watch the figure make its way slowly across the camp. Just as you are about to voice an alarm the figure, Ishy you think, breaks away from the group heading out into the darkness.

 

Whoever that is must just be going to relieve themselves, you think.

 

You wake with a start. Damn me! I fell asleep. Must not do that. Curious you count the slumbering shadows in your group. One is missing. Did Ishy come back you wonder? Just then you hear a gurgled "H..p meh." in the distance. Quickly you jump to your feet and run towards the desperate sounds.

 

Fifty paces later you come across a figure lying on the ground. IT IS ISHY! Battered and bruised. This man has been completely beaten. You crouch down and look him is the face and wence in horror. Massive amounts of blood is flowing from his mouth. His tongue has been cut out. Weakly he grips your collar. Using the last of his strength he tries to answer your cries of "WHO DID THIS?" but all the comes out is gibberish. Then he goes limp. Gasping his last breaths of air.

 

By this time, others have reached you, hearing your pleas. Even in the night you can see shock on several faces. The brutality of this murder is too strong for some as they run to let go of what little lies in their stomachs.

 

Again, you start the days march in the night. To horrified to even consider sleep.

 

Ishy - Thirsty plane crash victim has been killed.

 

It is now Day 5. With 4 alive it takes 3 to lynch. Deadline is Thursday Midnight MST.

 

However, it is pretty clear that the "lone figure" is actually Ishy. For Darthe to have come out and stated that there was only one mafia tells me this: He was trying to earn townie cred by acting like he was picking up on something from clues and didn't have inside knowledge, and that he wants us to believe there is only one mafia left.

 

This is because there is still a risk for them. If they can't get a townie to vote with them today, then there is still a chance that they can lose if they lose two coin flips. So he wants townies to think they can mislynch today and still possibly win. I don't think this is true. Our best chance is to stalemate em. Which means do whatever you have to to keep them from securing a lynch.

[hazelkrs1]

1. John Snow, killed Day 3

2. Rand, town, Lynched Day 3

3. Darthe

4. Kaylee

5. GF, water thief, lynched Day 1

6. Despo

7. Tglems, town, Lynched Day 2

8. JLM, town, Lynched Day 4

9. Ishy (replaced Red), town, NK’d Night 4

10. Sakaea 2.0 (replaced Mish), town

11. BG, town, NK’d Night 3

12. Nolder, NK’d night 2

13. Sakaea, town, NK’d Night 1

 

Kaylee has the least posts of anyone alive right now. I'd like to hear from her, see what she thinks.

 

I also happened to find this post from Kae incredibly misleading. At first I thought there was something wrong with the list, because I only saw 3 names left, even tho there should be 4. Then I noticed she had colored her name (pretty much) the same color as the confirmed town off the list, which is a sneaky way of trying to get you to forget that she is one of the players that needs to be focused on.

 

I get that even mafia will profess themselves to be town, but the little coloring trick here is just one more ping to throw on the pile.

[peacesells]

Vote Count:

 

Sakaea (1): Despo

 

Not Voting: Kaylee, Sakaea, Darthe

 

With 4 alive it takes 3 to lynch. Deadline is Thursday Midnight MST.

[Darthe]

I felt that with 4 remaining that we needed 2 to lynch for some reason. I suppose I overlooked myself in this at this point. A stalemate doesn't make sense despo. If we do not lynch someone that is mafia today then they kill one of us tonight and either tomorrow comes (aka there is one left which would be odd, admittedly), or we lose. I do not see no lynch as an option. However, I do think that you (Despo) may be manipulating this situation based on your statements here. A weak or null read doesn't do anyone well anymore but you seem to be trying to case everyone but Kaylee and trying to direct us into bad decisions.

[Sakaea]

I agree with Darthe, scarily enough.

 

Despo, of course I colored my name in, I know I'm town. You'll find I do that all the time when I post those lists at end game, it serves no purpose to leave my name black, because I just C/P the list from the word doc I have going for the game. Why reformat it?

 

 

Vote Despo for being a tunnel vision troll, and like Darthe said, trying to direct us into bad decisions.

[hazelkrs1]

Blah blah blah go ahead and jump on my train scum

[Sakaea]

LOL, what train?

[hazelkrs1]

Train = anything more than one vote

 

 

And you make it so obvious. Its already been stated multiple times that a lynch could be secured on a townie very easily, and you jump onto Darthe's reasoning like an eager beaver.

 

If you were town, you'd pretty much be losing the game for us since I am town. But you're not, so I hope the random hits you

[Darthe]

Vote Kae. Just figured it out. More to come soon, I think you'll like this.

[Sakaea]

I have one vote on you Despo, the only vote. Hence..................no train.

[hazelkrs1]

I have one vote on you Despo, the only vote. Hence..................no train.

 

I was talking to both you and Darthe, since I think you are both scum. But Darthe DID just vote you, so we'll see how this goes. You I am sure on either way, whether your partner is Darthe or Kaylee

[Sakaea]

[Darthe]

Hey Despo, this is why I said we can only have 1 mafia left... If we have 2 left town can't get a majority today. Hence..--> One left.

[hazelkrs1]

What are you talking about Darthe? Who said town would be able to secure a lynch today? I don't think town has a chance of being able to seal a lynch on scum today, cause I think there are still two mafia left.

 

But hey, if Kae turns out to be the last scum, I won't complain

[Darthe]

Right... So if I was modding this would have been endgame. Town can't get a majority through anything. Even the luck of a random killing mafia still causes a mafia NK and game over in the morning. If town=mafia in numbers then game over. Also, Unvote. You know better than this so your actions are pingy.

[Darthe]

I do not mean to game the mod here but I have a logic issue... If me or Kae was given a kill on Kay or Despo and both of those are town then giving us a kill would be game over automatically so, by this, I have to assume that the threat of giving us the instakill was either an empty threat or that one of those two is anti-town. The third option, that the mod simply doesn't care, bothers me and seems unlikely.

 

However, this bothers me as well..

 

1. John Snow, killed Day 3

2. Rand, town, Lynched Day 3

3. Darthe

4. Kaylee

5. GF, water thief, lynched Day 1

6. Despo

7. Tglems, town, Lynched Day 2

8. JLM, town, Lynched Day 4

9. Ishy (replaced Red), town, NK’d Night 4

10. Sakaea 2.0 (replaced Mish), town

11. BG, town, NK’d Night 3

12. Nolder, NK’d night 2

13. Sakaea, town, NK’d Night 1

 

The outlier here is Kae, so statistically she is mafia. However, Despo is being pretty illogical here. IMO, it is down to you two.

[hazelkrs1]

Right... So if I was modding this would have been endgame. Town can't get a majority through anything. Even the luck of a random killing mafia still causes a mafia NK and game over in the morning. If town=mafia in numbers then game over. Also, Unvote. You know better than this so your actions are pingy.

 

Right now I think it's 2v2 stalemate. Lynch doesn't get secured. Goes to random. Random hits town, mafia pretty much wins. Random hits mafia, then they get their NK and then it's 1v1 tomorrow, and I'd assume that's just a coin flip pretty much, to see if town can still win.

 

And if the mafia win condition is close to how it usually is, they have to have a voting majority over town to win. Do you know different?

 

Oh and way to unvote to save your partner there. Guess we see how empty your initial vote on her was.

[Sakaea]

Despo pings more and more; he knows the mechanics of mafia, and to say there are 2 vs 2 right now, and we're still playing, I'd bet there's one left, and he's it. Cus if we lynch town today, mafia NK's one tonight, it's endgame and mafia wins. Scummy Despo is scummy.

[hazelkrs1]

I do not mean to game the mod here but I have a logic issue... If me or Kae was given a kill on Kay or Despo and both of those are town then giving us a kill would be game over automatically so, by this, I have to assume that the threat of giving us the instakill was either an empty threat or that one of those two is anti-town. The third option, that the mod simply doesn't care, bothers me and seems unlikely.

 

However, this bothers me as well..

 

1. John Snow, killed Day 3

2. Rand, town, Lynched Day 3

3. Darthe

4. Kaylee

5. GF, water thief, lynched Day 1

6. Despo

7. Tglems, town, Lynched Day 2

8. JLM, town, Lynched Day 4

9. Ishy (replaced Red), town, NK’d Night 4

10. Sakaea 2.0 (replaced Mish), town

11. BG, town, NK’d Night 3

12. Nolder, NK’d night 2

13. Sakaea, town, NK’d Night 1

 

The outlier here is Kae, so statistically she is mafia. However, Despo is being pretty illogical here. IMO, it is down to you two.

 

The first point is interesting, you might have a point there. As you said, Peace could have just said that as a warning, and he wasn't really serious, or that he didn't care if town got killed by the low post count thing. After all, Rand was entrusted to kill Snow, even tho Snow turned out to be mafia. But I don't think he would be fine ending the game on that mechanic.

 

Which would mean in that scenario that Kae and Kaylee are the last scum

 

The second point tho about outliers and places in the list that were mafia and whatnot, that is just plain wrong. The list is done by random instantaneously, so every spot in the list has the exact same chance of being mafia as the others. It wouldn't be all that crazy to see three mafia all side by side on the original list or something. There is literally nothing there, but I have seen you use this reasoning in multiple games. Seriously man, look it up. There aren't "outliers" or other statistical anomalies to be found in the placement of roles on the list.

[hazelkrs1]

Despo pings more and more; he knows the mechanics of mafia, and to say there are 2 vs 2 right now, and we're still playing, I'd bet there's one left, and he's it. Cus if we lynch town today, mafia NK's one tonight, it's endgame and mafia wins. Scummy Despo is scummy.

 

If we lynch town today, I think it's game over obviously (unless they have to have a voting majority in the day time). Your post pretty much says nothing.

 

As for numbers wise, if there is only one mafia left, then that means the game started out with 2/13 players antitown, which would be a 15% proportion. Peace said he would keep it closer to 20% than the normal 25% proportion, that def implies the proportion would be higher than 15%.

 

The fact that Kae and Darthe are both pushing the idea that there is only one mafia leads me to believe once again that they are the remaining scum.

[Darthe]

Actually there can only be one scum. The way mafia works is if mafia has majority or equal then mafia wins... Peace, can you clarify this? I would not ask otherwise but this is not related to the players but rather how Mafia is run as a general game. So the question is does mafia win if they are equal to or have voting majority over the town?

[Darthe]

Also, Random.Org is a basic random number table done in computerized algorithm. (AKA it is much larger but still based on a preset). So it picks roles in order, giving relevance and statistical weight to the roles granted based on what order the players are listed in. IE: Most games you find a townsperson on the side of each mafia. However, occasionally (say once in every 14 players or so on average) two mafia will be side by side and much more rarely 3 will be together. I have only seen 3 together one time in DPR's latest mafia. Never seen 4 (short of the game where 65-70% of the players were mafia in different factions).

[Sakaea]

Actually there can only be one scum. The way mafia works is if mafia has majority or equal then mafia wins... Peace, can you clarify this? I would not ask otherwise but this is not related to the players but rather how Mafia is run as a general game. So the question is does mafia win if they are equal to or have voting majority over the town?

 

I want a clarification also from the mod on this before we do anything.

[peacesells]

There is nothing unusual about this game. It is completely normal other than rule 15. Otherwise PAFO.

 

Also, I do not make empty threats regardless of how it affects the game. If rule 15 was appropriate, it would have been used.