SPIDER COUNTRY - GAME THREAD 1 *GAME ON*

[DPR]

THIS THREAD IS NOW CLOSED. PROCEED TO THREAD 3.

[Darthe]

It doesn't matter. Influencing is a humanistic tendency and doesn't play on the statistics, it plays on the people. That is all that voting, casing, or anything else does. Nothing is certain except that if you have x number of people and of them .25x or .2x etc is mafia then you have the ratio to work from as a statistical marker. The impressions, thoughts, and plays of individuals only effect the surface game. If you need more proof of how little our plays actually matter consider the number of townies killed by townies in every game, or better yet the number of games won by town versus mafia. Your impressions only effect are to help you personally be more or less accurate in the large scheme of things.

[Darthe]

ninja'd sorry!

[John McClane]

  On 9/5/2012 at 6:58 PM, Despothera said:

But what Ape is saying only works if every lynch is pretty much random. With actual scumhunting, the lynch won't be random. It will be looking for those that are probably more scummy looking

 

Wrong. I scumhunt harder on D1 than anyone, but all I'm trying to do in that effort is make a better guess. It is still a guess, one that we've told ourselves is an informed one, but a guess just the same... and I still have a 25% chance of being right. Period.

[John McClane]

  On 9/5/2012 at 7:01 PM, Despothera said:

A guess isn't subject to 25% odds if it happens to be based on a great case. If someone has an obvious scumtell for instance, and people pick up on it, then chances are highly in their favor that they will catch that person when they're mafia.

 

Plus John's point is kinda silly anyways, when you consider that not every game has a 25% distribution of mafia. Some have more, some less, depending on roles and setup

 

First off, scumtells are not a confirmation of alignment, they are us convincing ourselves we are making an informed guess. Thus, 25%.

 

Second, what is silly is that you don't understand this, and probably play more mafia than I do.

 

Third, I clearly stated that the 25% was based on IF this game was structured around the most common balance ratio of 25% mafia. So, GFY.

[John McClane]

  On 9/5/2012 at 7:04 PM, Darthe said:

It doesn't matter. Influencing is a humanistic tendency and doesn't play on the statistics, it plays on the people. That is all that voting, casing, or anything else does. Nothing is certain except that if you have x number of people and of them .25x or .2x etc is mafia then you have the ratio to work from as a statistical marker. The impressions, thoughts, and plays of individuals only effect the surface game. If you need more proof of how little our plays actually matter consider the number of townies killed by townies in every game, or better yet the number of games won by town versus mafia. Your impressions only effect are to help you personally be more or less accurate in the large scheme of things.

 

Thank you.