Seanchan "attack" on the White Tower?

[Luckers]

This pertains to the prophecy of oil flinging off of the figurative tower and standing alone from the tower. Some dissapear meaning death others stand alone. That was my meaning.

 

This suggests to me that the centralisation of Aes Sedai will be broken. that their nature as hermits, and their opinions of themselves as seperate from hummanity with changed.

 

That was my meaning. As far as traveling exept for Avalrin(sp) who may have learned from Mas. I dont remember if you would post that for me plz.

 

Beonin trains Elaida and Tarna, and then Tarna trains others including Pevara and the rest, and Elaid apparently had Beonin train others still.

 

The chains, sorry for the incorrect post, affect the ability for ships yes and therefor didnt that affect restocking the area?

 

Certainly they do, though im not sure of the significance to this conversation...

 

Do the Seanchan who have scouts, did anyone make mention of it?

 

What?

 

That seems like it would really affect a travelerless Seanchan so the attack would be restructured.

 

The Seanchan would carry stocks with them...

 

Also Forget which Raken thingys where which at the moment. They have like 4 or 5 classes or something. That is of no consequence really.

 

There are two. Raken are smaller, live in trees, and fly very fast, they can carry at best two people. To'raken are larger, and dont live in trees. They find it hard to take off, and can carry larger weights of long distances, though no where near as fast as the Raken.

 

I dont think the Seanchan will enter the city. Unless RJ was setting us up for the demise of the tower by repeating the no one has ever breached the Shining Walls.

 

Why would the Seanchan land outside the city? that would be loosing them their only advantage, and dooming them. Its not as if breaching the city is an issue to them. Incidently the shining walls have been breached three times. Twice by Trolloc Armies in the Trolloc Wars... once with fighting in the tower itself, and once by the armies of Guire Amalasen, in the War of the Second Dragon, in a bid to stop him being gentled.

[Shaidar_Rannow]

Quote:

The chains, sorry for the incorrect post, affect the ability for ships yes and therefor didnt that affect restocking the area?

 

 

Certainly they do, though im not sure of the significance to this conversation...

 

Quote:

Do the Seanchan who have scouts, did anyone make mention of it?

 

 

What?

 

Quote:

That seems like it would really affect a travelerless Seanchan so the attack would be restructured.

 

 

The Seanchan would carry stocks with them...

 

These where meant to be read all together. After this "attack" they would seek out To Raken carrying supplies. I was saying that prevents this simple form of attack if the scouts said that the chains had been changed in any way. That is the question I was asking. I dont remember so I asked. I dont remember much at all concerning the overall plan to attack TV much. Which book is it so I can quit asking ?s you have proly answered already!

[DemandredFO]

I'm pretty sure the battle plan snd all the necessary forces were shown to be set at the end of KOD.

 

The Asha'man warders also have to be taken into consideration because presumably Tarna and the rest will presumably return from the Black Tower with at least one warder apiece. This is presuming of course none are Darkfriends and kill the six AS. Incidently I think Tarna and Pevara exhausted the list of Reds who will accept warders. Luckers, the timeframe would allow the Reds to return with warders, correct.

[Shaidar_Rannow]

I needed to know, I read that on Ebook. I think that it was missing some things. I will be back shortly.

 

"Is off to the bookstore"

[CrazyMike]

"Elaida do Avriny a'Roihan" ordered "Beonin Marinye" to instruct only the Aes Sedai that she wanted her to instruct in any of the new weaves especialy Traveling (KoD: Chapter 2)... So Traveling does exist inside the WT even if not widespread.

 

Finaly,,, the Riverports obstructed by Chains made of Cuendillar are not of any importance to the Seanchan because they do not have any ships to go up river to use them ,,, this because:

 

(1) The ships would have to sail upriver through several Hostil City States including but not limited to Andor and very near to the city of Caemlyn with

all the Forces they have there including Aes Sedai and Asha'man,,, I doubt they could pass without a fight that they would loose ,,, but primarily TEAR which would also be a fight they would loose...

 

(2) Travel by ship or Boat up river would take many long months...

[Luckers]

Yeah, in fact im counting on Asha'men pressense. I think the Asha'men will be a large reason that all Aes Sedai in the Tower arn't captured in the initial attack.

[Shaidar_Rannow]

So another part is taken care of thanks Mike. I just figured they would need to be taken into account but now they dont! You guys make it easy for me, I can add so crap filler to a theory and you can break it down. Nutritious.(keep forgeting the air allies of the Seanchan) I guess we will see. Your right Luckers those AM will be handy against the Seanchan one way or another.

[chemteach1977]

The biggest question i have still is whether the Seanchan attack will be an attempt to occupy the tower or simply a raid.

 

Occupation seems unlikely to me for a number of reasons.

1. The rebel army. They have refrained from attacking fellow AS but would have no reservations attacking a Seanchan held tower. Would be hubris for Seanchan to think that whatever force they had left after taking tower could hold out indefinitely against that force. Not sure how fast to'raken would be able to reinforce them. Unless they count on captured AS to help them defend...

2. Supplies. Every bag of grain they bring is one less damane or soldier. Again, the speed of resupply is important but this is a big concern. Also they cannot rely too heavily on supplies already in Tar Valon, a city that has been besieged for quite some time. Granted boats have made it in but supplies are a concern.

3. Prophecy. The ravens flew on without a pause.

 

Seems more likely the Seanchan would want to capture or kill all AS in the tower and fly away home with all their new damane. Whatever soldiers that could not find a seat (or maybe more) would stay behind as a suicide defense force but why risk all their new channelers as well as a couple thousand of their current damane in trying to defend the tower.

 

It seems likely story wise that they may stick around but militarily it would make little sense.

[CrazyMike]

I agree that it would be impossible for the Senchan to attack and hold the WT ,,, the only possibility for that having any reasonable chance would be if the Senchan had managed to Capture Aes Sedai that could TRAVEL of possibly that one of the FORSAKEN or a Dark Friend Channeler decided to creat Chaos and cripple the WT by teaching the Senchan how to Travel or at least to skim...

Actually, I don't see much point in an attempted attack on the WT by the Senchan,

(1) even with secrecy and suprise they can not block an Aes Sedai from channeling without a Damane and a sul'dam to control the Damane; and

(2) every Damane and sul'dam means two less soldier's to guard the Damane and the sul'dam ,,, and

(3) while the Damane/Sul'dam combo is very quick and powerful they will have their hands full with Aes Sedai and be easier targets for the Aes Sedai Guards and Soldiers,,, also

(4) There is an Army of more than FIFTY Thousand(50,000) new additional soldiers and mercenary's in Tar Valon ,,, you may recall that Siuan talked to Egwene at one time and commented on the fact that for every soldier and mercenary that came to Gareth Bryne's army 2 went to Tar Valon because they felt the WT could not lose the fight,,, Tar Valon was not surrounded by Gareth Bryne's army...

[chemteach1977]

All they would need to capture the AS would be a rock and an a'dam. (the bracelet, necklace doohicky) Whether a Sul'Dam wears the bracelet or not, the A'dam will prevent channeling. A few bags of A'dam are not too heavy. Personally i see the attack as an attempted mass kidnapping of AS.

[CrazyMike]

If the Attack happens it will be interesting to see how it plays out...

I can certainly see "Semirhage" sponsering such an attack without reguard to loses and possible gains much less the anger of "Rand",,, she certainly had enough time while she posed as "Tuon" to set it all up and make it take place unknown to "Tuon"...

[algspkr]

Two things, first off both theories seem plausable, but my money is on Luckers.

 

Second the Seanchan know that Aes Sedai can travel, I would bet that they are counting on getting that knowledge to help with retreat, or possibly supplies and reinforcements to deal with the rebels.

[Luckers]

My guess is that Semirhage knew nothing of the proposed attack on the White Tower. It was initially instigated by men who suspect Suroth of allying with the White Tower, and was planned by Galgan following Tuon's kidnapping. I find it unlikely he would have explained it to Anath, and we know everything that passed between Suroth and Semirhage, and that was not in it. My guess is Suroth was only told when she had to be--we know she was at some stage. In any case i dont believe Semirhage had anything to do with organising it.

 

8,000 soldiers and 2,000 damane could hold in city warfare against a much stronger force. It may be, however, that they merely intend to take the Tower long enough to leash the Aes sedai, before leaving Tar Valon (and wouldn't that create a ruckus). But for whatever reason i dont see them getting away. It may be the swiftness of the counter-attack...

 

Frankly though i could see them thinking they could hold the city. It's not entirely implausible either, especially if ive unstated the amount of damane they are bringing.

[Anajon]

wasn't the "what's it call anti-channel tea" (can’t belief it my mind is totally blank :-?) part of the original attack plan? Now Perrin took of a whole lot of that and I don't think we will see the same tactic used twice - but this does mean that the S- generals had to change their plans.

[Luckers]

It wasn't, no. The Seanchan don't have access to the White Towers water supply to put the forkroot in.

[DemandredFO]

couldn't the ravens flying on without pause simply mean that the Seanchan don't lose anyone in the assault.

 

P.S. Thank you Luckers I couldn't remember forkroot either

[CrazyMike]

you still seem to be ignoring the fact that the City of Tar Valon is filled to bursting with over 50,000 mercenary Soldiers in the employee of the Elaida's WT,,, this is not conting the regulars soldiers already serving the WT inside the WT,,, to be exact any landing in the City will be met with imediate defeat, a total fiasco,,, that leaves only landings in the Tower it's self, limited landing area and limited take off area, maybe on the top floor of the Tower, but I do not think there is going to be any place for them to land in the WT...

Also,,, keep in mind that even if they manage to overpower an Aes Sedai and collor her she will not use her weaves for them, she has to be broken and trained to be obedient,,, so the Sencan will be limited to what they bring with them...

 

The To'raken are big and Clumsy at Landings and takeoffs so even if they approach the WT unseen their landing will be LOUD and startiling to everyone,,, I believe an alarm would sound before they could even dismount from the To'Raken... So how many Sul'Dam and Damane are they going to bring with them,,, someone said 8,000 soldiers and 2,000 Damane on 1,000 To,Raken what about the Sul'Dam needed to control the Damane they will not function without them...

[CrazyMike]

by the way

 

how many Damane do the Senchan have anyway

 

2,000 ???

[DemandredFO]

Luckers estimated, and I'll take it, that the Seachan have like 4000 or so Demane. The Sul'dan are another 2000 it's just that no one says it cuz it should be obvious, I am not being sarcastic. There are around 500 channelers in the tower. So some demane will be detailed for protection while the rest kick ass and take names. By one of the oaths Aes Sedai cannot attack until they or warders are in danger and most demane are there to suppress that. I would think also that the Demane and soldiers sent will be the best of the best.

[DemandredFO]

Another point I forgot, a few AS will be able to use Saidar as a weapon, The Black Sisters and Mesaana. However, I doubt Mesaana will be captured, I'm with Luckers in hoping there will be a showdown between Egwene and Mesaana. Some Black sisters will be captured unless Mesaana, Alviarin or Ishamael knows of the plan and evacuates the Black Ajah post haste.

[Shaidar_Rannow]

I am telling you, they will fly without pause when the tower unites. That kind of power would turn them away. Make a special note that many of the kin, though enamoured(sp) with the AS but they are not bound by the oaths. That could get messy one way or another. Though a battle does seem iminent. I see it but I dont think it will happen when the WT is broken. Think on this. The Seanchan could overpower the AS in the WT easily with their #s but that would hardly constitute flying on without a pause. The prophecy leans one way then another.

[Luckers]

Demandred, i so agree. Which is funny since you were agreeing with me in your post, but i seriously hope a confrontation between Mesanna and Egwene...

 

Or actually, given KoD, Its possible that Egwene and Alviarin are the point of confrontation... either way...

 

how many Damane do the Senchan have anyway

 

Ok. Purely in the matter of those that come from seanchan... the Seanchan find every sparker, and they have a far greater populatyion density then Randland, plus dont have issues with the oath rod. My guess places that there are about 6,000 damane from Seanchan. Since arriving in Randland they'ce leashed thousnads...300 wise ones, hundreds of windfinders,and thousands of of average wetlanders.

 

Noe many of the Seanchan damane would have stayed in Seanchan. So, 4,000 plus maybe 2,000 recently leashed damane. My guess is that 2,000 will participate in the attack on the White Tower, but it may be as high as 4,000. The problem with 4,000 being that 4,000 sul'dam would be required, which would lessen the armed forces to 4,000, which is why i suggest less. though to be fair, damane are far more dangerous then soldiers, so the Seanchan may have sent the full 4,000 with only a few soldiers to back them up.

[chemteach1977]

Story-wise i agree whole-heartedly that the Seanchan will not be allowed to leave TV after the attack. Most likely

 

1. The rebel counter-attack with travelling and superior numbers will crush them

 

or

 

2. Rand and Tuon show up and sorts stuff out. Although why in the world Rand would go anywhere near the WT and "know the Amyrlin's wrath" i cannot guess.

 

My point is that militarily they would not be wise to attempt to hold the city. To'raken supply runs would be a hard way to resupply a city. Would be like the Berlin situation during the cold war. Except there is no way to replace any to'raken that are taken out. Also what is the benefit of holding one city so far from the power base?

Would be much more sensible to collar all the AS they can and raze the WT to the ground and fly away home. Not likely story-wise but if i was in command and saw the rebel army sitting outside, that would be my plan.

[Anajon]

It wasn't' date=' no. The Seanchan don't have access to the White Towers water supply to put the forkroot in.[/quote']

 

I don't have my books here - but I'm quite sure that there was a bigger plan then just "testing" people, for that manufactory in Chapter 12 KOD - I tried to check with the encyclopaedia but they don't gibe enough detail.

[Luckers]

Concider how massive testing people is. There arn't enough damane to patrol the borders of seanchan land. Now they dont need them, they just have everyone take a sip of tea. The lowliest soldier could be caught that way...

 

I wonder if the tea effectes learners who havn't learnt, and i wonder how the Seanchan would deal with that, seeing as how they dont know about learners or how to train them.