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Seanchan "attack" on the White Tower?


chemteach1977

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"A small white plinth stood centered in that circle, supporting an oil-lamp made of clear glass. The flame on that lamp burned bright and steady, without flickering. It was white too. Suddenly a pair of birds flashed out of the mist, two ravens black as night. Streaking across the spire-top, they struck the lamp and flew on without so much as a pause. The lamp spun and wobbled, dancing around atop the plinth, flinging off droplets of oil. Some of those drops caught fire in midair and vanished. Others fell around the short column, each supporting a tiny, flickering white flame. And the lamp continued to wobble on the edge of falling." COT: 20, In the Night, 495

 

It seems inevitable that the Seanchan will launch a largely successfull attack on the WT. At least that is what Egwene believes this dream implies. I'm not so sure. Note the ravens "flew on without so much as a pause." Seems improbable that any attack in earnest on the tower would give the Seanchan at least "a pause" if not put a good dent in the attacking force. Certainly it does not seem that the Seanchan will occupy the tower.

 

So what's up? I think we can say two things for certain.

1. The Seanchan will interact with the WT in some way that will shake the tower to the point of complete collapse. Whether the lamp falls or not is not revealed in the dream.

2. The Aes Sedai of the WT will be scattered. During the scattering, some of the AS will be killed and others will live as individual bands of AS.

 

I have seen a lot of theories that somehow the Seanchan show up just in time to battle hordes of shadow-spawn. Not sure where the support for this idea comes from.

My screwball theory is that somehow the Seanchan are involved with the discovery and/or disposal of the Black Ajah. The a'dam certainly seems like a tidy way of taking care of so many DF channelers (and maybe even a forsaken?)

What does everyone see occurring at the WT in the last book?

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Well for starters we know that the attack is about to happen. Galgan diverts all to'raken away from other jobs, which we see in effect through Tylee indicating final preperations are underway.

 

To'raken can carry 12 people, according to the BWB, and given that we know there are a thousand of them with the Return this gives us a number on the assault force. Specifically 12,000. My guess is that somewhere between 2,000 and 4,000 of those will be damane, which means another 2,000 to 4,000 sul'dam. My guess is at the lower range, because i estimate that there are only around 4,000 demane in total, and that they would not wish to strip all away.

 

So that leaves room for 8,000 soldiers.

 

Here is the way i see it playing out. The initial attack will be against the Tower itself, and will be massively successful. Many of the Aes Sedai inside the White Tower will be leashed, including, perhaps.

 

Elaida will freeze during this, or be drunk, and possibly be leashed too, though i doubt it. Far more likely is that Egwene steps up and takes charge of the Aes Sedai in the tower (there are only a little over 200 in the tower at the moment, so i believe at least a hundred will be leashed) as well as all the novices... indeed, i see her using them to aid the Aes Sedai who were caught, i suspect, unaware, and flees to the rebels. I think the attack will take place either when she is with Silviana, or Elaida. In the case of the first she will convince Silviana to follow her lead, in the latter she will step up when Elaida doesn't react to Tarna.

 

I believe it will be Silviana, and that part of the convincing point is in the Egwenes decision to go to the rebels. She will convince Silviana that the Tower Aes Sedai can't hold the Seanchan themselves. She will take Elaida with her when she flees to the rebels.

 

In any case i dont see the Seanchan attacking the rebels right out. For starters they have an army of fifty thousand, as well as somewhere around 1,500 channelers, and they have plans for how to react to attack. If the Seanchan do attack them on open ground it'll be over fairly quickly, with the Seanchan losing.

 

No the only hope for the Seanchan is if it comes down to fighting in the city itself. Egwene will rouse the Rebels very quickly, and lead the counter attack. The fighting will bottle, and become drawn out. I suspect, too, that the Seanchan will hold the Tower itself for at least some time. Possibly till the end. I think the Aes Sedai need to lose the assosiation between themselves and the Tower, or rather have it shaken. This is a good way to do that.

 

Somewhere during the course of this Egwene and Gawyn will meet up again, i suspect when he saves her from failed assault with the youngling, thus fulfilling the various prophecies about that.

 

Now, you asked about the Shadowspawn theories? This is my thought on it.

 

This situation will last maybe a week, i suspect, with the fighting being sporadic at best. Then Tarmon Gai'don will reach the tower. Specifically i believe there will be two or three massive assaults from the shadow. One through the Shadows Lance, to be met by Rhuarc, one through Tarwin's Gap, to be met by Lan. Lan will travel ahead of that one harrying it as he can, and arrive in Tar Valon early to bring warning. It is at around this time that things will come to a head with the Black Ajah, and a confrontation between the Hunters and the Alviarin will drive them into the open. Perhaps Alviarin will be captured, or Mesanna--not sure. I do see a confrontation between Mesanna and Egwene though.

 

In any case Tar Valon will come under siege, and the brunt will be borne by the Aes Sedai, who will be hard pressed, near to losing. The Seanchan who are near the centre of the city, will not aid them.

 

Meanwhile off screen Rand and Tuon have met. Indications from prophecy suggest that he will gain his way, which makes sense, and i can see Tuon appreciate as much. Specifically the terms will be that all hostilities are ceased against everyone, including leashing, until after the Last Battle.

 

Between the revelation about Anath, and that I believe that an assault through the ways on Amadacia will have preceeded this meeting for various reasons... 1. To prove Rand right in spending all that effort closing the Ways. 2. The repetitive Seanchan comment of wanting to see Shadowspawn. I suspect Hammon will be involved in rousing the Seanchan to that danger. 3. To bring home the danger to the Seanchan.

 

Endgame: Tuon agrees. She reveals the assault on the Tower, as she is honourbound to. Rand will demand the attack be stopped immediately, and they both Travel to Tar Valon (with approprate entourages, or even armies). Upon discovering the Shadowspawn on the verge of defeating the Aes Sedai, Tuon will lead the Seanchan against the Shadowspawn, breaking their assault. Between them the Shadowspawn will be driven into retreating away from the city.

 

This fulfils the dream Egwene had about a Seanchan woman whose face shifts and whose sword is the most significant thing about her, aiding Egwene and saying 'we can get there if we work together'.

 

Specifically, the woman represents the Seanchan army... the face is shifts because it is many people, and the figure is female because its ultimately led by Tuon, and is an extension of her will, and the sword is the significant thing because it is an army. Its symbolic of its inherent nature.

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:shock:

 

I think I have a theory; Luckers = Robert Jordan....

It would all fit together quite nicely as he wrote.. and would make perfect sence. (and if written properly, would be an awesome read too)

 

Nice Luckers..nice

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Well most of that is conjecture. It's how i would write it if i were RJ, but that doesn't mean its how he will write it. I just think its fits with what we know, and it fits the fact that there is only one book left and RJ needs to up the pace and threat, as well as begin bringing all the threads together. He doesn't have space for them to continue apart. I also suspect, for instance, that Mat and Moiraine will join with Elayne out of the Tower of Genjii and that they will travel to Tar Valon with the army of Andor to aid Egwene against the Seanchan attack--they'll arive after everythings gone down but meh.

 

Altogether the events with the Tower, Rands meeting with Tuon, the assault of the Trollocs, Mat rescuing Moiraine, and a meeting between Rand and the Borderlanders will make up roughly the first half of the book, the second will be Tarmon Gai'don driven. At least to my mind.

 

And yes, i suspect you are right about the Amyrlin's anger being about the alliance with the Seanchan.

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"A small white plinth stood centered in that circle' date=' supporting an oil-lamp made of clear glass. The flame on that lamp burned bright and steady, without flickering. It was white too. Suddenly a pair of birds flashed out of the mist, two ravens black as night. Streaking across the spire-top, they struck the lamp and flew on without so much as a pause. The lamp spun and wobbled, dancing around atop the plinth, flinging off droplets of oil. Some of those drops caught fire in midair and vanished. Others fell around the short column, each supporting a tiny, flickering white flame. And the lamp continued to wobble on the edge of falling." COT: 20, In the Night, 495 [/quote']

 

Thats all good and well but your wrong...

 

That prophecy says the tower is steady without flickering. I think this means that the Tower must be united first. The collapse will occur when control is not forked over during the battle. I assume that they wont allow all of the new "novices" participate in the battle as their stingy culture wont allow it. In the end, before the fall of the tower, Egwene will force them to allow the full power of rebel "novices" and WT novices to enter battle and that is why there will be AS striking out on their own. They will be unable to cope with what must be done. (The MIGHTY Aiel accept change but NEVER the arrogant WT, they have shown themselves to be quite arrogant in their customs) As far as everyone coming together I dont know how it will happen but it will in some unthought of way. (I think many of us, myself included, forget that this book may be 10 in thick for all we know) There are things that must be done while other portions are brought together. One of these is Moraine. I think that will be a side chapter(s) to pace Rand and the WT chapters. While it is true that the reason the Seanchan will not mount a 2nd assualt will be the inevitable arrival of Tuon and therefore the truce. Remember that this is a battle plan set long ago and Tuon knows it. Mat doesnt have that kind of control over her at this time to stop it. She will show and stop that ruckus after her truce and THEN Shadow will befall the tower and together they will drive it back. Though I must admit RJs repeated notes that no army has ever breached the Shining walls is my only X factor here. He may want the shadow to bring the world together. What better way than to see the shadow bring the tower in heated battle. Though hated the WT has been the only stable thing this age. Now to the Armlyins wrath...I think that will be Rand saving the tower from another harm like the shadow. Egwene is still headstong as any Two Rivers folk and will not be happy if she is not able to show everyone that the tower is truley united by defeating the shadow at the WT gates. That could also aid in my lost AS theory. I think the bulk of these lost ones will be the Reds. Unable to bear the fact that they must ally with a Male Channler to win the last battle. Even in KOD it is made plain that even in these times too many reds still despise male channlers. Hence Pervaras few she chose(the few receptive to her idea of bonding) Most Reds seem to hate men in general so insted of desolving the Reds defect. Thats my take.

 

After all, the Seachan would have trouble enough getting through the rebels to get to the WT to bring it near collapse. Since there are so many channlers there they would attack them as well and would lose too many to be able to make such an assualt to the WT. That is my strongest point on that theory for me.

 

 

Now I am out of breath and my hands hurt so I leave you to your deed of breaking this theory to bits.

 

Oh and it seems I missed them failing to capture Halima, my bad. That does mean that they should probably feel more uneasy maybe??

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After all, the Seachan would have trouble enough getting through the rebels to get to the WT to bring it near collapse. Since there are so many channlers there they would attack them as well and would lose too many to be able to make such an assualt to the WT. That is my strongest point on that theory for me.

 

The attack is from the air, why is getting past the forces surrounding Tar Valon an issue? Moreover, why would 12,000 attack an army of 50,000 with equal channerlers on an open field?

 

That prophecy says the tower is steady without flickering. I think this means that the Tower must be united first.

 

There is not time for the tower to be united before the Seanchan assault. The last we saw the to'raken had been all gathered. Based on statements about to'raken flight times in the BWB and from amadacia to Ebou Dar it will take 4 days at the most to reach Tar Valon. Given that the last we saw Egwene was before that scene with Tylee, and we've watched Tylee for three days following that, the attack will likely occur in the next day following Egwene meeting Elaida.

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I will state this one more time for some of the slower folks. The prophecy states that the tower stands steady and unwavering and Elaidias tower is in turmoil. Sisters dont trust one another and stay prmarily to their ajah quarters. That is no united tower. Even in the air, Raken are not silent and certainly not crows, hence the notice of the rebels. You think that soldier would not attack forigen creatures??? Heck they might mistake them for Drakhar (sp). The Rebel sisters are all clearly shaken from the murders regardless of Halima's arresst. Not to mention, now I just finished KOD again but it seemed like the entire span of Egwenes capture has spanned only days, not masses of weeks. Also theres no real time differential between her capture and the orders of the Raken. Oh I forgot to mention she already has novices, accepted, and a select few AS(at least unofficialy) for her cause. It would not take long. At the very least I would understand if maybe the attack would push forward events but still those rebels(thats the key(having rebels does not mean steady and unwavvering)) Elaidia has no control in her own tower and everything is falling apart hence Egwenes ability to undermine authority. Sorry I just think that you can deny my other points but how can you justify denying that solid point. This is a tower divided currently and that is anything but steady and unwavering.

 

Crap I edited the wrong post. All the same revert that here. The sisters in the rebel camp may be more jumpy with a forsaken escaping after murdering some in their fold

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I have a new thought, there are two ravens in the prophecy. That could mean Tuon and Mat. Mat is the Prince of the Ravens and Tuon is the Empress of Seandar(represented by the raven) Perhaps this is the army then, if that is the case there is plenty of time to rally the WT and have the Male channlers from the BT on both sides of TV. I am sure I am wrong on that one but thought I would throw it out there. :?:

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It does not say that the tower must be one, you are just interperting that it said that, but one of the recurring thoughts in this series is that prophecy should never be taken at face value, and that it is hard to truly get its meaning.

 

It could be steady to show the difference the attack will make, or the advanced level of "unsteadiness" that will ensue after that attack. The fact is we can't state for sure what it means, we can only speculate.

 

(and the raven is the sign generally used to represent the seanchan so...)

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Sorry Shaidar_Rannow

The Rebel sisters are all clearly shaken from the murders regardless of Halima's arresst.

 

Halima Saranov a.k.a. Aran'gar; was not captured he fled from the rebel camp with the Aes Sedai "Delana Mosalaine" and her servant "Miesa" in tow behind him, and obviously subserviant to him,,,(KoD, Chapt. 23)

 

He escaped, sorry.

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For starters I am pretty sure that at the time of the Seanchan assault Mat will be on his way to or at Finnland.

2nd Let me say that I think Luckers is more correct. I believe the assault will take place at night like the Fortress of the Light hence no soldier can do anything and they are not shadowspawn so I don't believe the AS or warders will sense them. Depending on conditions the To'Raken may not even be seen until the Demane open fire. Bryne is in charge of the Rebel army, not the channellers, so the tower fighting could be game-set-match before the rebel channellers even get their act together cuz they don't have an Amarlyn, Sharina is the most powerful but she may have some kind of accident curtesy of Lelaine. I forgot this, by the Third Oath they cannot attack the To'Raken because they are going for the Tower not the Rebels unless they can believe they are Dragkhar, I guess.

I grant Shaidar Rannow's point about unwavering white flame, though, I think it represents the White Tower alone, not the people in it. There's not to indicate Egwene thinks a united tower will be attacked. When the book is published, though, if your theory is closer than Luckers' I will come on this thread and say so but I don't think it is.

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I don't realy have an Idea how the Prophecy of "Egwene al'Vere" will be fulfilled;

However I ask, isn't it possible that the Ravens represent the Dark Lords servants,,, ravens are his servants and viewed as bad omens all around...

 

I do however fill strongly that Egwene al'Vere

will be taken into a deep dark dungeon and made to swear an Oath on an Oath rod to tell the trueth, then she will confirm that she is not a Dark Friend and then will begin a co-operative effort between the Rebel Sisters and the White Tower sisters running the secrete search to weed out the Black Ajah;;; I believe such a Union is unescapable,,, Egwene is there in the Tower and they can get their hands on her,,, they have Red Sisters and every other color of Ajahs sister except blue in their group and they can discretely influence Elaida with out letting Elaida know what they are doing or how they are doing it,,, and thereby get Elaida to turn Guardianship of Egwene over to them for enough time to get the job done,, they can even get her schedule changed sufficiently to allow for her abduction and Swearing in.

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If you recall Silviana also made the connection to the Shadow, and Egwene said that it was not, and that this was a part of the knoweldge that came with the dream, not a personal interpretation.

 

I will state this one more time for some of the slower folks. The prophecy states that the tower stands steady and unwavering and Elaidias tower is in turmoil.

 

Oh wow.... Thanks! I can't believe I missed that last time! How foolish of me!

 

Now that we have that out of the way, your deduction is based on conjecture only. The unwavering flame does not require a unified Tower, it requires only a tower that is safe. The Aes Sedai are not dying in the Tower at the moment, and for all the political unrest the hold of the Aes Sedai organisation on Tar Valon is not challanged. The Aes Sedai inside and out of the city are just sitting around, and there isn't any force nearby to challange them. For the time being the White Flame is burning strong, for all its internal unrest. Indeed, even though they are dealing with each other, the White Tower itself, and the Aes Sedai as a whole, are currently the strongest they have been for over a thousand years... likely more.

 

You may believe it, just dont expect others to with such arrogance. Or just, you know, in general.

 

That is no united tower. Even in the air, Raken are not silent and certainly not crows, hence the notice of the rebels. You think that soldier would not attack forigen creatures?

 

Ok... and this is just from the 'slower folks' but I think you could do with a little bit of actual fact. The average to'raken speed is a little over twice that of a horse. They are gliders, not flappers, and noise is therefore minimal. A night time approach and assault could literally take place completely undetected in a world were aerial assaults are unknown except by individual draghkar.

 

Raken have been scouting the city at night for a month now, undetected and we've previously seen the effectiveness of a to'raken assault in Amadacia. So im curious... and again, i know, a slow person... but how is it that the rebels are going to do anything? By the time its noticed the Rebels will not have time to muster and move in to aid the city before the assault is well under way. The time it would take a to'raken to fly from above the rebels to the white tower would be around 5 miuntes at the tops.

 

And you suggest the soldiers attacking them... how? To'raken fly well above the reach of any bow, and its a five minute ride from the soldiers camps to the Aes Sedai, by the time any Aes Sedai would be out of bed the assault force would have landed. The liklyhood of an Aes Sedai noticing them is negligeable... Aes Sedai are not standing guard, and all would likely be asleep. And then what? The Oaths stop the Aes Sedai from attacking the to'raken, and even if an Aes Sedai thinks their shadowspawn and DOES attack, there are two thousand damane amongst the assault force, more then capable of defending the to'raken in the five minute window they are flying above the rebels.

 

Far more likely, though, is that the rebels notice nothing. The to'raken are dark skinned gliders lowering visibility and audibility to nothing. The Aes Sedai are complacent in their camp, for all their preperations. They certainly wont be looking for near invisible, near silent creatures to be flying to Tar Valon, likely no where near the rebel camps, in the early hours of the morning. My guess is that when Egwene leads the tower novices and surviving Aes Sedai through a gateway to the camp she finds it still asleep, and unaware and has to rouse them. Likely there will be a small moment when Romanda or Lelaine come out thinking the Tower is attacking before they recognize Egwene.

 

The Rebel sisters are all clearly shaken from the murders regardless of Halima's arresst. Not to mention, now I just finished KOD again but it seemed like the entire span of Egwenes capture has spanned only days, not masses of weeks. Also theres no real time differential between her capture and the orders of the Raken. Oh I forgot to mention she already has novices, accepted, and a select few AS(at least unofficialy) for her cause. It would not take long.

 

I'm sorry, but it would be impossible for Egwene to displace Elaida and bring together the Rebels and the loyalists in time. Yes, she has laid the groundwork for it, and when the attack happens that groundwork will be the reason the Tower Aes Sedai fall in line when Egwene steps up, and will also be what allows the two to join so seamlessly when they counter-attack the Seanchan. But achieving unification before is impossible. Even at her current impressive rate, for the Tower Aes Sedai to come to the conclusion of their own free will to remove Elaida will take weeks. They are more then ready to do it, i agree, but they will need a push to actually do it, if its to be sooner then that.

 

Sorry I just think that you can deny my other points but how can you justify denying that solid point.

 

And I'm sorry, but you don't have a solid point... you have a theory with little evidence from the books, based around an interpretation of a prophecy that is semantic at best.

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Ah Luckers...you are truly my bane it seems. First off let me clarify one thing. I was in NO way saying you were slow. I was not calling anyone stupid or anything. I was making a reference to the fact that no one gave any reason that my theory was incorrect, that is except you. You are wrong in thinking you know my mind upon posting that message. Now to the meat...

 

The fact that there is a split in the tower, whether either part is fine or not. Does not convey a steady unwavvering place. Now true this is based on my interpretations of that prophecy but your meaning seems more face value then the story gives. Maybe your right, maybe the tower simply needs to still be there to be steady and unwavvering. I dont think so however, both of are theories are just that. In KOD there are refrences to the fact that more and more folks seem to have knowledge that the tower is split. For your theory to be true nothing needs to happen aside from the tower standing whole(but not whole and in mine it is base on what everyone sees and knows is occuring. Now I dont seem to have as much time to devote as you seem to Luckers but I dont remember a whole lot of coverage to the actual attack plan so I am sure you can help me out with it. I can say that the attack may begin more to your fashion, in the night. However until I feel fully beaten I cant even fashion my own theory as to how the attack begins. Now the one thing I dont think you covered, at least for me, is the rebel camp. There are many channlers there and surely the Seanchan will sense them. Will they do nothing and move on to the objective? Or do you think they will not notice them? Though I dont think your theory is bad, I simply believe mine to be more logical in this sense. You dont expect me to give up my theory after one gauntlet run do you? I believe strongly here and you'll need to do that thing you do and make a specific refrence(s) to why your view should be any better than mine. As for your misintepretations(butchered that sp) of my last post I hope that doesnt occur again. If it does feel free to clarify before rudely slamming me on the forum. Thanks

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And unwavering flame is a symbol of existence, not unity.

 

Now the one thing I dont think you covered, at least for me, is the rebel camp. There are many channlers there and surely the Seanchan will sense them. Will they do nothing and move on to the objective? Or do you think they will not notice them? Though I dont think your theory is bad, I simply believe mine to be more logical in this sense. You dont expect me to give up my theory after one gauntlet run do you?

 

Of course not. We live for disagreement here, and thats fine. My problem was with your high handedness, both here and in the other thread.

 

From the air it seems unlikely the Seanchan will sense the channelers, though i dont doubt that their scouts have alerted them to the presense of the rebels. Remember they have had scouts in place over Tar Valon for a little over a month.

 

But yes, they will ignore them. For one, attacking a force with an army of 50,000 soldiers and 1,500 channelers on an open field when you yourself have only 8,000 and 2,000 channelers is veritible suicide. The seanchan have a clever plan... It they can take the city they should be able to hold it against an army and channelers--at least, if travelling didn't exist. As it is the fight will become a guerilla war were in the numbers become less of an issue.

 

As for your misintepretations(butchered that sp) of my last post I hope that doesnt occur again. If it does feel free to clarify before rudely slamming me on the forum. Thanks

 

If you play nice, i will.

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I believe I covered that in the other thread accurately. Now thats what I wanted. I did not see how they would leave that delicious prize of rebels but your right, they dont know traveling yet(the fools, how many times has it been used around them?) and probably think that they can last longer with the tower. Now in that case the WT does not know traveling either.(rebels do however) So where does the cullendar bridge come into play? Do you think that they would use the Raken as supply trains? I just have no clue. So many drop offs that only RJ can fill. Oh and my theory is based on conjecture but so was yours. Here we will have to agree to disagree. It is better that there are two theories anyway. I understand better your logic now but I just cant abandon my theory this time. I will admit to you that I think both are possible only because of how quickly Egwene has acted thus far and I think it could happen. If yours is true, what did you say the seperate standings are? Perhaps some of them are the Kin and the Reds maybe?

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Now in that case the WT does not know traveling either.(rebels do however)

 

Actually several women in the White Tower know of Traveling, though i agree its restricted information.

 

So where does the cullendar bridge come into play?

 

What cuendillar bridge? Egwene and Leane turned the chains accross the harbour mouths to cuendillar, nothing else. I dont see how it would be an issue.

 

Do you think that they would use the Raken as supply trains?

 

My guess is that the attack carried supplies with it... enough for initial arrival, and after that there is the city. I dont see the need. Incidently Raken never carry supplies... to'raken are used for carrying heavy loads, raken are just scouts.

 

Oh and my theory is based on conjecture but so was yours. Here we will have to agree to disagree. It is better that there are two theories anyway. I understand better your logic now but I just cant abandon my theory this time.

 

I dont disagree... in fact i stated the presense of conjecture in my theory.

 

If yours is true, what did you say the seperate standings are? Perhaps some of them are the Kin and the Reds maybe?

 

I'm not sure what you mean by this?

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This pertains to the prophecy of oil flinging off of the figurative tower and standing alone from the tower. Some dissapear meaning death others stand alone. That was my meaning. As far as traveling exept for Avalrin(sp) who may have learned from Mas. I dont remember if you would post that for me plz. The chains, sorry for the incorrect post, affect the ability for ships yes and therefor didnt that affect restocking the area? Do the Seanchan who have scouts, did anyone make mention of it? That seems like it would really affect a travelerless Seanchan so the attack would be restructured. Also Forget which Raken thingys where which at the moment. They have like 4 or 5 classes or something. That is of no consequence really. I dont think the Seanchan will enter the city. Unless RJ was setting us up for the demise of the tower by repeating the no one has ever breached the Shining Walls. Too many unanswered questions. All based on what ifs and maybes of course but we shall see.

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