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DRAGONMOUNT

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one word....Asmodean..... ;-)


Guest Egwene

spigots or caudrens  

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Posted
It said that Rand did not think his fighting had been done with the blade? What's that mean to you' date=' Kung Fu?

J[/quote']

 

What it quite clearly says is that it is what Rand thought, not what actually happened. Rand didn't see any last fireball leaving Asmo's hand.

 

However weak or silly Asmo may have been, he was tough and wily enough to have survived the War of Power, and all of the DO's internal purges. He had a very highly honed sense of survival. He stood there with a sword in his hand, looking awkward, and let the others do the fighting, just as everyone would expect an effete musician to do.

 

Well, I don't know what to say. I think it's not very rational to assume he was *not* channeling when RJ goes to some lengths to clue us in that he was.

 

You're on your own with those assumptions, but I continue to believe that he channeled.

 

Does anyone else here think that he did not channel?

J

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Guest cwestervelt
Posted

 

3. Avoid being killed (by Forsaken' date=' Rand, Aes Sedai, bad fish, falling off a horse, upsetting the DO, etc)

 

Not talking about how good you are doing for point 2 helps your progress in point 3.

 

The sniper and the machine-gunner may both get the same number of kills, but the machine-gunner is much more likely to be taken down himself because he is out there and obvious.[/quote']

 

A sniper can only endanger anyone when they know which way to point that rifle.

 

Please find anywhere in FoH or any subsequent book where any of the Forsaken indicate an intention to go to Caemlyn, having gone to Caemlyn, having been in Caemlyn... anything that tells us even one of them knew where Asmo was.

 

Sam, Graendal, and Lanfear went to Caemlyn in the Prologue and hatched their plan to make Rand go after Sam. Rahvin made very clear that none of them were ever to show up on his doorstep uninvited. "If you want to speak with me, send an emmissary, and I will decide when and where. And if." None of them would be dropping by to borrow a cup of sugar.

 

There is nothing to indicate that Sammy, Lanfear and Graendal ever went back to Caemlyn after that initial meeting. They got the point of Rahvin's statement and stayed away thereafter. All of the other planning sessions were done in Tel'aran'rhiod which is why Moghedien was able to learn that they were planning something.

Posted

 

3. Avoid being killed (by Forsaken' date=' Rand, Aes Sedai, bad fish, falling off a horse, upsetting the DO, etc)

 

Not talking about how good you are doing for point 2 helps your progress in point 3.

 

The sniper and the machine-gunner may both get the same number of kills, but the machine-gunner is much more likely to be taken down himself because he is out there and obvious.[/quote']

 

A sniper can only endanger anyone when they know which way to point that rifle.

 

Please find anywhere in FoH or any subsequent book where any of the Forsaken indicate an intention to go to Caemlyn, having gone to Caemlyn, having been in Caemlyn... anything that tells us even one of them knew where Asmo was.

 

Sam, Graendal, and Lanfear went to Caemlyn in the Prologue and hatched their plan to make Rand go after Sam. Rahvin made very clear that none of them were ever to show up on his doorstep uninvited. "If you want to speak with me, send an emmissary, and I will decide when and where. And if." None of them would be dropping by to borrow a cup of sugar.

 

There is nothing to indicate that Sammy, Lanfear and Graendal ever went back to Caemlyn after that initial meeting. They got the point of Rahvin's statement and stayed away thereafter. All of the other planning sessions were done in Tel'aran'rhiod which is why Moghedien was able to learn that they were planning something.

 

Of course, if they had reason to believe that Rahvin had been disposed of, they might.

 

Also, Graendal may have needed something and been willing to take the risk, as might most of the others (just not openly).

J

Posted
[Ok Bob' date= we'll tell you how a forsaken knew as soon as you tell us how Bashere would know, and why that's not a stretch, but a Forsaken is.

 

This will be a good one, methinks.

J[/quote]

 

Nope. Tit for tat. My suspect is on the scene. The author specifically placed him there.

 

Your turn. Place your suspect in the palace in Caemlyn. And, no easy cop-outs like, "xyz Traveled to Caemlyn." They need a reason to go.

Guest cwestervelt
Posted
It said that Rand did not think his fighting had been done with the blade? What's that mean to you' date=' Kung Fu?

J[/quote']

 

What it quite clearly says is that it is what Rand thought, not what actually happened. Rand didn't see any last fireball leaving Asmo's hand.

 

However weak or silly Asmo may have been, he was tough and wily enough to have survived the War of Power, and all of the DO's internal purges. He had a very highly honed sense of survival. He stood there with a sword in his hand, looking awkward, and let the others do the fighting, just as everyone would expect an effete musician to do.

 

Well, I don't know what to say. I think it's not very rational to assume he was *not* channeling when RJ goes to some lengths to clue us in that he was.

 

You're on your own with those assumptions, but I continue to believe that he channeled.

 

Does anyone else here think that he did not channel?

J

 

I have to side with Bob. We only have a speculative thought from Rand that he was Channelling, not any actual detection of Weaves.

 

There is more than one reason why he would choose to hold Saidin in a close melee situation. The obvious is that he was Channelling. The less obvious, and in this situation, just as possible if for the enhancement of his senses he receives by doing so. That would help him stay alive by giving him some added reaction time and quicker reflexes for dodging attacks aimed at him.

Posted
[Ok Bob' date= we'll tell you how a forsaken knew as soon as you tell us how Bashere would know, and why that's not a stretch, but a Forsaken is.

 

This will be a good one, methinks.

J[/quote]

 

Nope. Tit for tat. My suspect is on the scene. The author specifically placed him there.

 

Your turn. Place your suspect in the palace in Caemlyn.

 

Except you indicated that a Forsaken would have to *know* he was there, as would Bashere. If you want to play that game, happening to be there is not enough.

 

For my part, these people spy on each other all the time and can teleport. Why is so hard to see that constitutes the means to be there?

J

Posted
It said that Rand did not think his fighting had been done with the blade? What's that mean to you' date=' Kung Fu?

J[/quote']

 

What it quite clearly says is that it is what Rand thought, not what actually happened. Rand didn't see any last fireball leaving Asmo's hand.

 

However weak or silly Asmo may have been, he was tough and wily enough to have survived the War of Power, and all of the DO's internal purges. He had a very highly honed sense of survival. He stood there with a sword in his hand, looking awkward, and let the others do the fighting, just as everyone would expect an effete musician to do.

 

Well, I don't know what to say. I think it's not very rational to assume he was *not* channeling when RJ goes to some lengths to clue us in that he was.

 

You're on your own with those assumptions, but I continue to believe that he channeled.

 

Does anyone else here think that he did not channel?

J

 

I have to side with Bob. We only have a speculative thought from Rand that he was Channelling, not any actual detection of Weaves.

 

There is more than one reason why he would choose to hold Saidin in a close melee situation. The obvious is that he was Channelling. The less obvious, and in this situation, just as possible if for the enhancement of his senses he receives by doing so. That would help him stay alive by giving him some added reaction time and quicker reflexes for dodging attacks aimed at him.

 

For the purposes of argument I'll accept that, although Bob's statement that he'd identify himself by channeling holds just as true, since anyone who mattered would know he was holding saidin.

 

If Bob is worried a non channeler would identify him, I question how he would know it was Asmo channeling with all that stuff coming out of the air. No holding saidin is as incriminating as using it.

 

But let's say accept your rationale (even though I don't think it matters). In the absence of proof either way, it seems less likely that he would hold saidin just for the sensory effects than to defend himself. Plus, Rand's not a dummy. True, he could be wrong, but the overwhelming evidence is in favor of Asmo channeling, and there is no evidence (even circumstantial) supporting that he did not.

J

Posted
There is nothing to indicate that Sammy' date=' Lanfear and Graendal ever went back to Caemlyn after that initial meeting. They got the point of Rahvin's statement and stayed away thereafter. All of the other planning sessions were done in Tel'aran'rhiod which is why Moghedien was able to learn that they were planning something.[/quote']

 

Of course, if they had reason to believe that Rahvin had been disposed of, they might.

 

Also, Graendal may have needed something and been willing to take the risk, as might most of the others (just not openly).

J

 

CW is completely right.

 

While we've had ample evidence that the Forsaken have very good communication with their intelligence assets, they don't have instant communication. Asmo dies a couple of hours, at most, after that battle.

 

Show me how any of them got the word that quickly.

Posted
There is nothing to indicate that Sammy' date=' Lanfear and Graendal ever went back to Caemlyn after that initial meeting. They got the point of Rahvin's statement and stayed away thereafter. All of the other planning sessions were done in Tel'aran'rhiod which is why Moghedien was able to learn that they were planning something.[/quote']

 

Of course, if they had reason to believe that Rahvin had been disposed of, they might.

 

Also, Graendal may have needed something and been willing to take the risk, as might most of the others (just not openly).

J

 

CW is completely right.

 

While we've had ample evidence that the Forsaken have very good communication with their intelligence assets, they don't have instant communication. Asmo dies a couple of hours, at most, after that battle.

 

Show me how any of them got the word that quickly.

 

Sure, and you show me how Bashere knew Asmo was in the pantry. For instance, say Graendal is looking for Moggy in TAR and sees some of the effects of the battle, decides to go herself. *shrug* just off the top of my head.

 

In fact, I think Graendal could very well have seen any of the actors in TAR.

 

J

Posted

These are all things we know Bob, but you keep trying to refute them for some reason:

 

1) inverted weaves we mentioned before the murder

 

2) Asmo was channeling during the battle, after his "resurrection". Because Rand orders Asmo not to channel again, this means he won't defend himself with the power in the midst of battle? What, he is holding saidin just for laughs? He likens it to "drinking sewage" (now that he is post-resurrection and can feel the taint)

 

3) You ask where FS had been and Caemlyn, then you answer your own question. They had been in Caemlyn in the Prologue to TFoH. Similar to point #2, because Rahvin tells them not to come uninvited, it is not a "fact" that no FS would come back in the future. Beg pardon, but if someone make their wishes clear, it is by no means a "fact" that those wishes are ever obeyed.

 

4) The FS knew where Asmo was. They know he is with Rand, teaching him. Graendel tells him that "He has a teacher... A poor one, but not a complete fool." They know Asmo had turned, they discussed it in the Prologue. They know he is with Rand. Lanfear knows, she is the one who shielded him.

 

The following are not facts, but reasonable speculation:

 

The morning of Asmo's death, some of the FS know things are going to go down in Caemlyn. Rahvin knows, he is cowering behind his wards and traps. Moggy knows, she tells Nyn (Moggy knows a LOT about things about to take place). Lanfear DOES NOT KNOW (how she does not is beyond me, since she claims in the prologue how she can watch him best. Of course, she doesn't know who has been in his bed either. Go figure.) (Actually, these are facts, and can be gleaned direct from the text)

 

And, for those that don't know, they can figure it out with not too much difficulty. It's almost as if there is a signal fire. More like actual fires, really, of the burning Trolloc corpses.

Posted
These are all things we know Bob' date=' but you keep trying to refute them for some reason:

 

1) inverted weaves we mentioned before the murder

 

2) Asmo was channeling during the battle, after his "resurrection". Because Rand orders Asmo not to channel again, this means he won't defend himself with the power in the midst of battle? What, he is holding saidin just for laughs? He likens it to "drinking sewage" (now that he is post-resurrection and can feel the taint)

 

3) You ask where FS had been and Caemlyn, then you answer your own question. They had been in Caemlyn in the Prologue to TFoH. Similar to point #2, because Rahvin tells them not to come uninvited, it is not a "fact" that no FS would come back in the future. Beg pardon, but if someone make their wishes clear, it is by no means a "fact" that those wishes are ever obeyed.

 

4) The FS knew where Asmo was. They know he is with Rand, teaching him. Graendel tells him that "He has a teacher... A poor one, but not a complete fool." They know Asmo had turned, they discussed it in the Prologue. They know he is with Rand. Lanfear knows, she is the one who shielded him.

 

The following are not facts, but reasonable speculation:

 

The morning of Asmo's death, some of the FS know things are going to go down in Caemlyn. Rahvin knows, he is cowering behind his wards and traps. Moggy knows, she tells Nyn (Moggy knows a LOT about things about to take place). Lanfear DOES NOT KNOW (how she does not is beyond me, since she claims in the prologue how she can watch him best. Of course, she doesn't know who has been in his bed either. Go figure.) (Actually, these are facts, and can be gleaned direct from the text)

 

And, for those that don't know, they can figure it out with not too much difficulty. It's almost as if there is a signal fire. More like actual fires, really, of the burning Trolloc corpses.[/quote']

 

I agree for the most part. I think it's also important to ask who would kill Asmo. I remain convinced it was a DF, and most non Chosen Dfs do *not* attack Chosen. Especially not without orders, and a greater threat. They think they're next to gods. I think it has to be someone who is used to dealing with Chosen as an equal, and most likely another Chosen.

 

I also want to take the opportunity to ask if Asmo didn't die from BF, why the DO didn't resurrect him with a mindtrap. The DO knows how Lanfear conspired against him and brought her back, albeit punished. I think if he could've he would've brough Asmo back.

 

J

Posted

The point about the killer wanting to keep his head down may be valid... but there's still a problem with it.

 

On the one had we have a killer who is so worried about making him/herself a target that they hide the fact that they killed Asmo, ( although there's no reason to, Asmo had betrayed the DO, every single one of them was expected to try to kill him if they had an opportunity ), while on the other hand we have a killer who is so bold that he/she will blithely walk into an unknown battlefield situation, facing unknown dangers, unknown enemy strength, and unknown Wards and Traps.

 

Do you see the logical inconsistency here?

Posted
The point about the killer wanting to keep his head down may be valid... but there's still a problem with it.

 

On the one had we have a killer who is so worried about making him/herself a target that they hide the fact that they killed Asmo' date=' ( although there's no reason to, Asmo had betrayed the DO, every single one of them was expected to try to kill him if they had an opportunity ), while on the other hand we have a killer who is so bold that he/she will blithely walk into an unknown battlefield situation, facing unknown dangers, unknown enemy strength, and unknown Wards and Traps.

 

Do you see the logical inconsistency here?[/quote']

 

Not at all, unless you think special ops forces who are supposed to remain hidden are not also very brave and competent warriors. It very often is necessary to use stealth and only use violence on your prey for whatever reason.

 

We don't know if anyone knows that he's dead, so it's hard to speculate on why someone would keep it to themselves.

 

For Graendal, she's always screwing with people. SHe likes to know things that others do not. It's her frigging MO.

J

Posted

It does seem that the FS also have incomplete information problems the morning of the murder. Again, except Moggy. What Moggy knows, others may or may not know. Clearly Lanfear doesn't know.

 

Oddly enough, in the very next part of the story, the Prologue of LoC, we learn of Sammy and the call boxes.

Posted

havoc -

 

Rand thinking something happened doesn't make it fact. It's just what he thinks. Rand thinks Morgase is dead, too. In fact, he's utterly convinced she's dead. As we know, she isn't. Characters, even Rand, are very often wrong in what they think happened.

 

There is no evidence that Rahvin "knew" Rand was coming any more than he knew the other Forsaken would be coming for him eventually. He suspected everybody and everything was going to be coming at him eventually. He prepared against it all.

Posted
It does seem that the FS also have incomplete information problems the morning of the murder. Again' date=' except Moggy. What Moggy knows, others may or may not know. Clearly Lanfear doesn't know.

 

Oddly enough, in the very next part of the story, the Prologue of LoC, we learn of Sammy and the call boxes.[/quote']

 

 

First of all the need to know is only necessary if you assume it was not an accident, which I do not. I don't know if it was, so I could go either way.

 

If it was an accident, Graendal could have been there for any reason at all. I challenge anyone to tell me they know the depths of her plans, and the extent to which she'll go to preserve her own power base.

 

If whomever went there did it as a result of the battle, I think it's important to remember that a lot was done in TAR, and is the most likely vehicle for that information being transmitted.

J

Posted
havoc -

 

Rand thinking something happened doesn't make it fact. It's just what he thinks. Rand thinks Morgase is dead' date=' too. In fact, he's utterly convinced she's dead. As we know, she isn't. Characters, even Rand, are very often wrong in what they think happened.

 

There is no evidence that Rahvin "knew" Rand was coming any more than he knew the other Forsaken would be coming for him eventually. He suspected everybody and everything was going to be coming at him eventually. He prepared against it all.[/quote']

 

He didn't say Rand *knew*, but your insistence that he did not flies in the face of what likely happened. True, he may not have, but occhams razor indicates that we take the simplest likely explanation. If you see someone holding saidin, the most likely simple explanation is that they're using it.

 

You can't discount that from your thinking because it messes your theory up, just like I can't dismiss options I don't like.

 

It's very very likely he was channeling, and you have to take that into account.

J

Posted
Not at all' date=' unless you think special ops forces who are supposed to remain hidden are not also very brave and competent warriors. It very often is necessary to use stealth and only use violence on your prey for whatever reason.

J[/quote']

 

Spec Ops forces do not hide from imaginary dangers while openly facing tanks. They ignore the imaginary dangers and go doggo until the tanks are out of range.

 

Retaliation from the other FS for killing Asmo is an imaginary danger. Going to Caemlyn on that day is walking into the middle of a tank battle with nothing but a sidearm.

Posted
Not at all' date=' unless you think special ops forces who are supposed to remain hidden are not also very brave and competent warriors. It very often is necessary to use stealth and only use violence on your prey for whatever reason.

J[/quote']

 

Spec Ops forces do not hide from imaginary dangers while openly facing tanks. They ignore the imaginary dangers and go doggo until the tanks are out of range.

 

Retaliation from the other FS for killing Asmo is an imaginary danger. Going to Caemlyn on that day is walking into the middle of a tank battle with nothing but a sidearm.

 

What are you talking about? I didn't know anyone said that the killer hid it for fear of retribution. Could you direct me to that point, because I missed it.

 

I was thinking of Graendal with my spec ops point. She was all covert going in there, but was willing to take the risk...That's what I meant..I don't know where that other thing came from.

J

Posted

I also find the following item strange:

 

In all 11 books, with maybe this one exception, depending on the identity of the killer, there has been no self-inflicted casualties among the FS.

 

Sure a LOT has been said about it, Dem mentions in is own POV that his truce with Mess and Semi is solely not to act against each other until the rest are gone.

 

There have been a lot of threats, to be sure, but no real action, and by all accounts, the series is almost concluded.

 

That I think would be one of motivations for keeping it a secret, if you were the murderer, and you were a FS. It might me like taking your finger from the leaking dam. The other FS would probably go into "the gloves are off now IT'S ON" mode and the FS would be all involved in a vicious backstabbing circle, and start falling like hay before the scythe. If that doesn't fit with the perp's plans yet, he/she/it will keep it a secret until it is best revealed.

 

Funny with all this scheming, the best the FS can come up with is: Point the Dragon at the competition, and stay out of the Dragon's way. Not really very sophisticated.

Posted
I also find the following item strange:

 

In all 11 books' date=' with maybe this one exception, depending on the identity of the killer, there has been no self-inflicted casualties among the FS.

 

Sure a LOT has been said about it, Dem mentions in is own POV that his truce with Mess and Semi is solely not to act against each other until the rest are gone.

 

There have been a lot of threats, to be sure, but no real action, and by all accounts, the series is almost concluded.

 

That I think would be one of motivations for keeping it a secret, if you were the murderer, and you were a FS. It might me like taking your finger from the leaking dam. The other FS would probably go into "the gloves are off now IT'S ON" mode and the FS would be all involved in a vicious backstabbing circle, and start falling like hay before the scythe. If that doesn't fit with the perp's plans yet, he/she/it will keep it a secret until it is best revealed.

 

Funny with all this scheming, the best the FS can come up with is: Point the Dragon at the competition, and stay out of the Dragon's way. Not really very sophisticated.[/quote']

 

Well they're full of contradictions, like dismissing all the AS as savages, and then being amazed when they accomplish the "impossible". The funny thing is that they don't start to respect these savages, and continue to be blindsided when the savages one up them. You'd think they'd learn and apply their AOL intellects.

J

Posted
He didn't say Rand *knew*' date=' but your insistence that he did not flies in the face of what likely happened. True, he may not have, but occhams razor indicates that we take the simplest likely explanation. If you see someone holding saidin, the most likely simple explanation is that they're using it.

 

You can't discount that from your thinking because it messes your theory up, just like I can't dismiss options I don't like.

 

It's very very likely he was channeling, and you have to take that into account.

J[/quote']

 

I'd say possible, not very likely.

 

Asmo was in a tough spot. He might be killed... again. But he also absolutely had to keep the fact that he could channel a secret.

 

He's huddled in a knot of Aiel who are fighting for their lives. Aviendha is very nearby. So is Mat and his medallion. Everybody would notice a second set of channeled weapons.

 

Afterwards, neither Rand nor Asmo are the least bit concerned about what anyone else may have seen. If Asmo had been channeling, he would have been in a swivet about it. Everybody would now know he could channel. At the very least, things would get very messy for both he and Rand.

 

Possible, but not likely.

Posted
havoc -

 

Rand thinking something happened doesn't make it fact. It's just what he thinks. Rand thinks Morgase is dead' date=' too. In fact, he's utterly convinced she's dead. As we know, she isn't. Characters, even Rand, are very often wrong in what they think happened.

 

There is no evidence that Rahvin "knew" Rand was coming any more than he knew the other Forsaken would be coming for him eventually. He suspected everybody and everything was going to be coming at him eventually. He prepared against it all.[/quote']

 

I have to yield to this point. There is no evidence, save for what Moggy tells Nyn. And there is nothing directly there that indicates that Rahvin is hiding from Rand, and not just being a coward in general.

Posted
He didn't say Rand *knew*' date=' but your insistence that he did not flies in the face of what likely happened. True, he may not have, but occhams razor indicates that we take the simplest likely explanation. If you see someone holding saidin, the most likely simple explanation is that they're using it.

 

You can't discount that from your thinking because it messes your theory up, just like I can't dismiss options I don't like.

 

It's very very likely he was channeling, and you have to take that into account.

J[/quote']

 

 

 

I'd say possible, not very likely.

 

Asmo was in a tough spot. He might be killed... again. But he also absolutely had to keep the fact that he could channel a secret.

 

He's huddled in a knot of Aiel who are fighting for their lives. Aviendha is very nearby. So is Mat and his medallion. Everybody would notice a second set of channeled weapons.

 

Afterwards, neither Rand nor Asmo are the least bit concerned about what anyone else may have seen. If Asmo had been channeling, he would have been in a swivet about it. Everybody would now know he could channel. At the very least, things would get very messy for both he and Rand.

 

Possible, but not likely.

 

First of all Asmo had just *died* that's all he was thinking about. Makes sense to me.

 

Second of all, who was he hiding he could channel from, again? Holding saidin tells at least any other men around that can channel that he can, too. I'd say they're probably the biggest threat. If he really was trying to hide that he could channel, he'd not have been holding saidin.

 

I'm not going to argue the point any longer. In my opinion he'd zapped a few trollocs. I don't see anything outlandish about accepting that as true in the absence of out and out confirmation.

 

Plus, in a battle, it's confusing. He first of all could've used indirect weaves. If lightning comes out of the sky who's to say it wasn't an indiscriminate trap?

 

Second of all, zapping trollocs in a knot of people probably could very easily go unnoticed, unless you think battles are orderly things. Also, there was channeling everywhere *in a battle*. Fog of war and all that. Anyway, I got you to admit it could be a forsaken, and that's all I wanted to do.

 

To me it's intuitively obvious that Asmo channeled, but I"m not going to try and convince you.

J

Posted
He didn't say Rand *knew*' date=' but your insistence that he did not flies in the face of what likely happened. True, he may not have, but occhams razor indicates that we take the simplest likely explanation. If you see someone holding saidin, the most likely simple explanation is that they're using it.

 

You can't discount that from your thinking because it messes your theory up, just like I can't dismiss options I don't like.

 

It's very very likely he was channeling, and you have to take that into account.

J[/quote']

 

I'd say possible, not very likely.

 

Asmo was in a tough spot. He might be killed... again. But he also absolutely had to keep the fact that he could channel a secret.

 

He's huddled in a knot of Aiel who are fighting for their lives. Aviendha is very nearby. So is Mat and his medallion. Everybody would notice a second set of channeled weapons.

 

Afterwards, neither Rand nor Asmo are the least bit concerned about what anyone else may have seen. If Asmo had been channeling, he would have been in a swivet about it. Everybody would now know he could channel. At the very least, things would get very messy for both he and Rand.

 

Possible, but not likely.

 

Rand's comment infers that Rand believes that Asmo was channeling either in defense or in attack. He does not express surprise, or anger at Asmo's defiance of his previous order.

 

The only person who fails to accept this as a likely possibility is you, Bob.

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