Why You Hatin' on Me? (asks Egwene, Nynaeve, Faile, etc)

[Guest PiotrekS]

Third, even taking into account the number of outlanders in Caemlyn, we have to remember that it was a very big city, a capital. For the whites to outnumber the reds as vastly as they did, a fair number of people from Caemlyn should also be wearing white. What's more, simple common sense tells us that most of those outlanders were people from outside Caemlyn, but still from Andor. We wouldn't expect people from e.g. Tear to travel all the way to see the false Dragon. There is larger probability that more people come from nearer than from father away.Therefore, we have even a better sample of moods in Andor, because the number of people in Caemlyn is greater than usually and they come from different parts of the country, not only the capital.

 

While I get the point you are trying to make if things were really as you say there would be a huge uproar over Elayne becoming Queen. We see zero negative reaction to her, the kindswomen or any AS in the city of which there are a number of groups. This goes for how they are treated both in palace, in Caemlyn and how they are viewed by the other nobles. Not once is there a negative comment based on the AS involved with the succession. If it was an issue in the slightest that would be the very first thing the other claimants would bring up to sabotage Elayne's chances. As for the mood of Andor when Elayne was doing her journey polling the countryside we see zero sign of anti-AS sentiment. Instead as I quoted earlier they blame the DR for everything going wrong.

 

The fact that this was mentioned in EotW seems to be a result of as Basel Gill says the Children combined with an early bookism.

 

Well, maybe you're right. I could settle for books being pretty ambigous about Andorans' attitude towards Aes Sedai - they are not as hostile as Tairens, but they definitely don't respect them as much as the Borderlanders.

 

I've just found a quote from Almen Bunt (a good Anorman and a Queen's man) in EotW:

Caemlyn is the grandest there is. Couldn't be grander.(...)Unless maybe Queen Morgase, the Light illumine her, got rid of that witch from Tar Valon.

Rand way lying back(...)"You mean an Aes Sedai?"

'What else would I mean?Sitting there in the Palace like a spider. I'm a good Queen's man - never say I'm not - but it just isn't right. I'm not one of those saying Elaida's got too much influence over the Queen.Not me. As for the fools who claim Elaida's really the queen in all but name...". He spat into the night. "That for them. Morgase is no puppet to dance for any Tar Valon witch".(...)

You take the Lady Elayne and the Lord Gawyn, now.There's a change wouldn't harm anything, and might do some good. Sure, I know we've always done it that way in Andor.(...)I believe in tradition, I do, but look what it got us last time".(...)I'm a good Queen's man, but I say let's stop all this truck with Tar Valon. Three thousand years is long enough. Too long."

 

There was no huge uproar over Elayne becoming queen, but there was no enthusiasm either. She herself acknowledges how fragile her support and hold on the throne is. The society is divided and does not share a single political vision. It matters when we're hypothetizing about the rebelion.

[Suttree]

There was no huge uproard over Elayne becoming queen, but there was no enthusiasm either. She herself acknowledges how fragile her support and hold on the throne is. The society is divided and does not share a single political vision. It matters when we're hypothetizing about the rebelion.

 

Not sure about NO enthusiasm, there were a good amount of people voicing support.

Tisn’t right, if you ask me. He’s one of them black-eyed Aielmen, I hear. We ought to march on Caemlyn and drive him and all them Aiel back where they come from. Then Elayne can claim the throne her own self.

 

As for a Andoran society there is a big difference between a Democratic Monarchy were people are allowed to speak their mind(also notice how the sentiment in EotW is vastly different from the rest of the books) and a divided society when faced with Aiel(Aiel War and looting of Cairhein still fresh in everyones mind) and other outside powers. Again the text is clear. Why would RJ spend that time painting how the nobles and commoners feel if it wasn't the case?

[SuperFade]

Why would RJ spend that time painting how the nobles and commoners feel if it wasn't the case?

 

We see very little of what the commoners want. The number of commoners who are shown to disapprove of Rand's rule can be counted on one hand. The vast majority of people seem not to care very much. Elayne and the other nobles would certainly like to believe that the people of Andor would rise up against a foreign invader, and make the claim several times. But all we have is the rhetoric of a handful to back it up. If the Aiel had been forced to break up some riots or put down some popular revolts it would have been far more believable.

 

Having begun reading through A Song of Ice and Fire, I can't help but wonder how George R. R. Martin would have handled the situation. More bloodily and cynically, I suspect.

[ElusiveAthena]

Wow this has gone off-topic. In a good way.

[MasterAblar]

Why would RJ spend that time painting how the nobles and commoners feel if it wasn't the case?

 

We see very little of what the commoners want. The number of commoners who are shown to disapprove of Rand's rule can be counted on one hand. The vast majority of people seem not to care very much. Elayne and the other nobles would certainly like to believe that the people of Andor would rise up against a foreign invader, and make the claim several times. But all we have is the rhetoric of a handful to back it up. If the Aiel had been forced to break up some riots or put down some popular revolts it would have been far more believable.

 

Having begun reading through A Song of Ice and Fire, I can't help but wonder how George R. R. Martin would have handled the situation. More bloodily and cynically, I suspect.

 

If GRRM was writting this, there would have been a least a dozen claiments to the throne. Most of those would of course already be dead.

[Eht Slat Meit]

Tactics, of course - the Seanchan are the greatest naval power in the world, and starting a battle that damages Seanchan naval forces is hardly to be advised when you need these people as allies. In return, the only benefit is that it makes it slightly easier to bind the Sea Folk to Rand. That could be done anyway. As I said, dubious benefits.

 

Ah, I was referring to the Sea Folk, as I'd forgotten the Seanchan were an equally dominant force on the sea. That's the point here; you're ignoring the major benefit by considering the Seanchan to be the only ones that matter - the Sea Folk themselves. They are a major tactical resources - while the Seanchan may be the most powerful, the Atha'an Miere are undisputedly the fastest. When dealing with military tactics, that matters... you don't just want the biggest bruiser on your side, you want someone with mobility. Otherwise another great commander, the likes of Demandred perhaps, would simply cut their feet out from beneath them and leave them bleeding. Rand may need the Seanchan, but the Seanchan need Rand too. This is a two-way street.

 

To dismiss the full power of the Sea Folk as so insignificant that a few of them kept as damane are of equal value to a greater and truly loyal part of them is ignoring some hard realities...

 

I don't. I think you've lost track of the point.

 

... with the point being that the Sea Folk are far more valuable freely serving than as damane to the Seanchan, something that's been shown time and again by other quoted examples, and in fact there is a greater principle being upheld here. Slavery is enforced weakness. Even the heights among lowness will never achieve the greatest heights that they might have possessed with freedom. Like the White Tower. Or the Black Tower. Or the Wise Ones. Or the Kin.

 

Why have the Seanchan never achieved those greatest heights with their channelers? Because their channelers are animals on a leash. Not equals, not even people, and so low as to be less than property.

 

We're talking about the Sea Folk that Elayne managed to bargain just fine with. Yes, they're experienced and tough negotiators. So what? So are a lot of people (Saldaean merchants have that reputation as well).

 

Show me an equal feat among the Saldaeans? I mean, you do understand exactly what Zaida took from Elayne, right? She created what is in effect a sovereign city on Andoran soil, forever. Not subject to Andoran customs or any Andoran powers. Yes, it is only one square mile which seems piddling, but with the advent of Travelling, that square mile has unprecedented value in terms of transport and other more dangerous applications. This is in addition to the other square mile that Rand already gave them from their earlier bargain.

 

What did Elayne get for this exchange, giving up land Andorans had bled and died to preserve? 9 Windfinders to make gateways, for only so long as another bargain made with the Aes Sedai held force. Once the Sea Folk have got whatever knowledge they want from the Aes Sedai, her Sea Folk are history, but Sea Folk will still possess two sovereign territories on Andoran land.

 

Note that I'm not ragging Elayne for this; she is bargaining against people that nobody but ta'veren come out ahead of.

 

The same way any other commoner would - by petitioning someone in power. Kings and nobles listen to petitions from commoners. Yes, it would take time (although her being an Illuminator could help speed things along - having access to fireworks might not be of military benefit, but in thelong term it could always be good to be the only monarch with an Illuminator).

 

As far as anyone knows, the Illuminator guilds are completely wiped out and she's a madwoman with stolen fireworks making outlandish claims. Yes, kings and nobles do listen to commoners, but what about my main point? That what she says may be taken with a grain of salt, or worse, be stolen without compensation? After all, how many of those would willingly take on the Seanchan when can take what they want at a lesser cost? This is the game of thrones; commoners know well enough to avoid that path of daggers. Aludra is intelligent, she knows that. You make it sound terribly easy, as if nobles treat with commoners as if they were equals, and don't play the Great Game.

 

Or Agelmar Jagad, Gareth Bryne, Davram Bashere, Rodel ituralde, and probably a lot of others as well (I don't think it's only Great Captains who could see the benefits of such a weapon). As long as she can show it to someone who will see the potential (and it was her good fortune to meet with Mat, a man who could most definitely see their potential, making the whole thing much easier than it might otherwise have been.

 

It was Mat's ta'veren nature that created that meeting, not plain old good fortune. Really, what has Mat given her other than a pretty bottom to be appreciated? The point here...

 

How many of those can she legitimately get access to in war-time? Allof them, if she's prepared to wait long enough. Sure, being in the field makes it harder, but then I did specify that probably a lot of other commanders would be able to see the benefits and not all of them are in the field.

 

... is that such access is improbable to a great degree, and a willingness to make such a bargain with Aludra is improbable to an -extreme-. Not impossible, but so improbable as to demand a ta'veren to make it happen.

 

Well, you still need her expertise to manufacture gunpowder to use the bloody weapons. And unless there is some sort of long term accord with the Seanchan, having a weapon to use against them is an attractive possibility (and there is always the possibility of using them against other enemies).

 

You need her knowledge to make any significant amount of gunpowder. Once you have that, she's useless. "About those Seanchan, well, you see... the Dragon is trying to bargain with them. So, we'll be keeping the dragons and maybe later..." Assuming she doesn't just get a knife in the back. She's intelligent enough to know that, or why would she be tooling around by herself? Is she so stupid that she needed Mat to tell her what she could have done otherwise? Of course not!

 

Ta'veren affects chance - it makes the improbable probable, not the impossible possible.

 

It makes the improbable possible, not easier, not probable. There is a balance to this, even for hyper-ta'veren Rand. The point about impossibility isn't really relevant here, as I'm not claiming it's impossible for Aludra to accomplish these things alone... only so improbable as to be stupid for a commoner like herself to try it. She -knows- better. She doesn't have magic ta'veren powers to luck her safely into a meeting with just the right person who will ensure she gets what she wants for her dragons.

 

 

This doesn't actually relate to the initial point you were responding to.

 

The point I was responding to was your claim that I was singling Elayne out when I was clearly doing no such thing.

Understand that -you- cannot speak for -me- on what I am doing. That is your perception, it is not what I am actually doing. The distinctions I am pointing out may be minor, but they exist and they establish cause for my OPINION that Mat... between the books in question... still holds a higher place in the hierarchy of accomplishment than Elayne. They are not equals. Based on those criteria, fault-finding and suggestions that I am somehow singling out Elayne to cheat her of her rightful place as Mat's equal are without merit. If you believe otherwise, more power to you, but your desire to change my opinion doesn't actually alter what I think the slightest whit.

[XXX]

 

Remember that Rand had his elite troops with him - they engaded Rahvin's people and trollocs and myrdraal. Also if you read the description of the fight with Rahvin, you'll Rand was displaying battle skills way surpassing everything Nyn, Elayne or Egwene have shown so far, including TGS and ToM. And even that would avail him nothing had they not stumbled upon Nynaeve with leashed Moggy.

 

I think that knowledge is the key..the only way the supergirls had any chance was if Moggy actively helped them. By themselves even linked they just do not have the skills of any of the Forsaken. Even Rand with his innate superior channeling power(and superior skills thanks to Asmo and LTT compared to the girls) was getting his butt kicked because Rahvin knew a lot more than him.

[SuperFade]

I think that knowledge is the key..the only way the supergirls had any chance was if Moggy actively helped them. By themselves even linked they just do not have the skills of any of the Forsaken. Even Rand with his innate superior channeling power(and superior skills thanks to Asmo and LTT compared to the girls) was getting his butt kicked because Rahvin knew a lot more than him.

 

Rahvin was also using his control of T'A'R against Rand as well. At that point he was indisputably better at it than even Egwene. Thinking that they could hope to take him head on is ridiculous.

[MasterAblar]

I think that knowledge is the key..the only way the supergirls had any chance was if Moggy actively helped them. By themselves even linked they just do not have the skills of any of the Forsaken. Even Rand with his innate superior channeling power(and superior skills thanks to Asmo and LTT compared to the girls) was getting his butt kicked because Rahvin knew a lot more than him.

 

Rahvin was also using his control of T'A'R against Rand as well. At that point he was indisputably better at it than even Egwene. Thinking that they could hope to take him head on is ridiculous.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if he still would be by ToM, were he still alive. He has way more experience.

[XXX]

I think that knowledge is the key..the only way the supergirls had any chance was if Moggy actively helped them. By themselves even linked they just do not have the skills of any of the Forsaken. Even Rand with his innate superior channeling power(and superior skills thanks to Asmo and LTT compared to the girls) was getting his butt kicked because Rahvin knew a lot more than him.

 

Rahvin was also using his control of T'A'R against Rand as well. At that point he was indisputably better at it than even Egwene. Thinking that they could hope to take him head on is ridiculous.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if he still would be by ToM, were he still alive. He has way more experience.

 

Which is why Egwene beating Messana who has centuries of experience in TAR with a mind trick seem so ridiculous.

[Suttree]

Show me an equal feat among the Saldaeans? I mean, you do understand exactly what Zaida took from Elayne, right? She created what is in effect a sovereign city on Andoran soil, forever. Not subject to Andoran customs or any Andoran powers. Yes, it is only one square mile which seems piddling, but with the advent of Travelling, that square mile has unprecedented value in terms of transport and other more dangerous applications. This is in addition to the other square mile that Rand already gave them from their earlier bargain.

 

What did Elayne get for this exchange, giving up land Andorans had bled and died to preserve? 9 Windfinders to make gateways, for only so long as another bargain made with the Aes Sedai held force. Once the Sea Folk have got whatever knowledge they want from the Aes Sedai, her Sea Folk are history, but Sea Folk will still possess two sovereign territories on Andoran land.

 

Note that I'm not ragging Elayne for this; she is bargaining against people that nobody but ta'veren come out ahead of.

 

and you do understand Andor will enrich themselves off all trade flowing in and out of their pieces of land correct? The land was specifically said to not be on water hence they have to move goods across Andoran soil. Taxation my friend, the deal is not nearly as bad as you let on.

 

We see very little of what the commoners want. The number of commoners who are shown to disapprove of Rand's rule can be counted on one hand. The vast majority of people seem not to care very much. Elayne and the other nobles would certainly like to believe that the people of Andor would rise up against a foreign invader, and make the claim several times. But all we have is the rhetoric of a handful to back it up. If the Aiel had been forced to break up some riots or put down some popular revolts it would have been far more believable.

 

Not true. It was the prevailing sentiment on Elayne's entire journey through Andor to Caemlyn. That was the point of RJ writing that entire sequence. As has been quoted many times.

 

TPOD, CH. 20

 

’Tisn’t right, if you ask me. He’s one of them black-eyed Aielmen, I hear. We ought to march on Caemlyn and drive him and all them Aiel back where they come from.”

 

&

 

Elayne heard a great deal about Rand, rumors ranging from him swearing fealty to Elaida to him being the King of Illian, of all things. In Andor, he was blamed for everything bad that happened for the last two or three years, including stillbirths and broken legs, infestations of grasshoppers, two-headed calves, and three-legged chickens. And even people who thought her mother had ruined the country and an end to the reign of House Trakand was good riddance still believed Rand al’Thor an invader. The Dragon Reborn was supposed to fight the Dark One at Shayol Ghul, and he should be driven out of Andor. Not what she had hoped to hear, not a bit of it. But she heard it all again and again.

[Eht Slat Meit]

Which is why Egwene beating Messana who has centuries of experience in TAR with a mind trick seem so ridiculous.

 

Probably hasn't grasped a fundamental rule, that "things" in TAR have no power except that which they are given. Hence, Perrin is able to stop balefire with a wave of his hand while everyone else is running around dodging weaves and counter-weaving. Weaves are just a thing, with no substance in the world of dreams. It might be that this is something not even well understood by the Heroes, as Moghedien was able to use such a weave to turn Birgitte into a child. Or was that a true weave?

[XXX]

Which is why Egwene beating Messana who has centuries of experience in TAR with a mind trick seem so ridiculous.

 

Probably hasn't grasped a fundamental rule, that "things" in TAR have no power except that which they are given. Hence, Perrin is able to stop balefire with a wave of his hand while everyone else is running around dodging weaves and counter-weaving. Weaves are just a thing, with no substance in the world of dreams. It might be that this is something not even well understood by the Heroes, as Moghedien was able to use such a weave to turn Birgitte into a child. Or was that a true weave?

 

I would think that is TAR 101...pretty far fetched to think that someone who has spent centuries in TAR is not aware of that. Such a person has to be a complete moron otherwise.

[Guest PiotrekS]

 

We see very little of what the commoners want. The number of commoners who are shown to disapprove of Rand's rule can be counted on one hand. The vast majority of people seem not to care very much. Elayne and the other nobles would certainly like to believe that the people of Andor would rise up against a foreign invader, and make the claim several times. But all we have is the rhetoric of a handful to back it up. If the Aiel had been forced to break up some riots or put down some popular revolts it would have been far more believable.

 

Not true. It was the prevailing sentiment on Elayne's entire journey through Andor to Caemlyn. That was the point of RJ writing that entire sequence. As has been quoted many times.

 

TPOD, CH. 20

 

’Tisn’t right, if you ask me. He’s one of them black-eyed Aielmen, I hear. We ought to march on Caemlyn and drive him and all them Aiel back where they come from.”

 

&

 

Elayne heard a great deal about Rand, rumors ranging from him swearing fealty to Elaida to him being the King of Illian, of all things. In Andor, he was blamed for everything bad that happened for the last two or three years, including stillbirths and broken legs, infestations of grasshoppers, two-headed calves, and three-legged chickens. And even people who thought her mother had ruined the country and an end to the reign of House Trakand was good riddance still believed Rand al’Thor an invader. The Dragon Reborn was supposed to fight the Dark One at Shayol Ghul, and he should be driven out of Andor. Not what she had hoped to hear, not a bit of it. But she heard it all again and again.

 

Yeah, generally in every country people were telling different things about Rand and blaming him for everything. It is a common theme in the books.But it might be that in Andor the negativity about him was larger because of their devotion to the indepndence and female-only rulers and the lack of knowledge about the circumstances of his arrival in Andor. Almost nobody knew the truth about Rahvin after all.

 

From disgruntled mutterings to revolt destined to be drown in blood is a long way though. Rand was in Caemlyn for some time, the Aiel even longer, the Black Tower still sits next to Caemlyn. Yet we haven't heard a single report of any attack on Rand's forces by the Andorans. They simply grumbled, which is consistent with how they behaved when Rahvin was exploiting the country.

 

I wonder if attitudes towards Rand would change if he revealed he was Tigraine's son? Deylin could be convinced, and with her integrity she could maybe even be convinced to announce it publicly. Then I think Rand's standing with average Andorans would be much improved, especially since the disappearance of Tigraine was seen as a national tragedy, if I recall.

[Eht Slat Meit]

I would think that is TAR 101...pretty far fetched to think that someone who has spent centuries in TAR is not aware of that. Such a person has to be a complete moron otherwise.

 

If everyone accepts a thing as true (world is flat!) it's a sad reality that people will perpetuate it, perhaps not even think to question it, until someone proves otherwise. Ignorance is a powerful force.

 

On the other hand, In TAR things might not have power (note the shifting of the clothing), but people do, and the line might not always be clear cut. Now, throw in something that the new kids created (a'dam) and not these people from the Age of Legends and suddenly what they thought to be true... that weaves being the extension of their will... no longer applies.

 

Two possibilities, same end. Neither requires stupidity, just the time-honored failure of arrogance coupled with ignorance.

[Suttree]

Two possibilities, same end. Neither requires stupidity, just the time-honored failure of arrogance coupled with ignorance.

 

Which the forsaken obviously posses in spades...

[Eht Slat Meit]

Two possibilities, same end. Neither requires stupidity, just the time-honored failure of arrogance coupled with ignorance.

 

Which the forsaken obviously posses in spades...

 

Ignorance? Yes, as a matter of fact. They've just been bumped how many thousand of years into the future, a world nearly unrecognizably different from their own. Ignorance should not be surprising unless the DO's got a magic "catch up" program that fixes all that. That's the best example, though what we're talking about here is more from their own age. Each has different areas of expertise, and as far as I know, there's nothing in the books suggesting that the Age of Legends had mastered TAR, just that they knew how to get there and could manipulate it well enough to survive in it. Relatively speaking that's a great deal more than the current Age, but that doesn't imply omniscience any more than our real-life Age knowing more about outer space than the neanderthals suggests we know everything about space.

[Suttree]

Two possibilities, same end. Neither requires stupidity, just the time-honored failure of arrogance coupled with ignorance.

 

Which the forsaken obviously posses in spades...

 

Ignorance? Yes, as a matter of fact. They've just been bumped how many thousand of years into the future, a world nearly unrecognizably different from their own. Ignorance should not be surprising unless the DO's got a magic "catch up" program that fixes all that. That's the best example, though what we're talking about here is more from their own age. Each has different areas of expertise, and as far as I know, there's nothing in the books suggesting that the Age of Legends had mastered TAR, just that they knew how to get there and could manipulate it well enough to survive in it. Relatively speaking that's a great deal more than the current Age, but that doesn't imply omniscience any more than our real-life Age knowing more about outer space than the neanderthals suggests we know everything about space.

 

I agree, was speaking of the trait you mentioned above. We know how arrogant they are, goes without saying but I also found it interesting how many things they were truly ignorant about. The combination of the two makes their shortcomings all the more believable.

[SuperFade]

Show me an equal feat among the Saldaeans? I mean, you do understand exactly what Zaida took from Elayne, right? She created what is in effect a sovereign city on Andoran soil, forever. Not subject to Andoran customs or any Andoran powers. Yes, it is only one square mile which seems piddling, but with the advent of Travelling, that square mile has unprecedented value in terms of transport and other more dangerous applications. This is in addition to the other square mile that Rand already gave them from their earlier bargain.

 

What did Elayne get for this exchange, giving up land Andorans had bled and died to preserve? 9 Windfinders to make gateways, for only so long as another bargain made with the Aes Sedai held force. Once the Sea Folk have got whatever knowledge they want from the Aes Sedai, her Sea Folk are history, but Sea Folk will still possess two sovereign territories on Andoran land.

 

Note that I'm not ragging Elayne for this; she is bargaining against people that nobody but ta'veren come out ahead of.

 

and you do understand Andor will enrich themselves off all trade flowing in and out of their pieces of land correct? The land was specifically said to not be on water hence they have to move goods across Andoran soil. Taxation my friend, the deal is not nearly as bad as you let on.

 

We see very little of what the commoners want. The number of commoners who are shown to disapprove of Rand's rule can be counted on one hand. The vast majority of people seem not to care very much. Elayne and the other nobles would certainly like to believe that the people of Andor would rise up against a foreign invader, and make the claim several times. But all we have is the rhetoric of a handful to back it up. If the Aiel had been forced to break up some riots or put down some popular revolts it would have been far more believable.

 

Not true. It was the prevailing sentiment on Elayne's entire journey through Andor to Caemlyn. That was the point of RJ writing that entire sequence. As has been quoted many times.

 

TPOD, CH. 20

 

’Tisn’t right, if you ask me. He’s one of them black-eyed Aielmen, I hear. We ought to march on Caemlyn and drive him and all them Aiel back where they come from.”

 

&

 

Elayne heard a great deal about Rand, rumors ranging from him swearing fealty to Elaida to him being the King of Illian, of all things. In Andor, he was blamed for everything bad that happened for the last two or three years, including stillbirths and broken legs, infestations of grasshoppers, two-headed calves, and three-legged chickens. And even people who thought her mother had ruined the country and an end to the reign of House Trakand was good riddance still believed Rand al’Thor an invader. The Dragon Reborn was supposed to fight the Dark One at Shayol Ghul, and he should be driven out of Andor. Not what she had hoped to hear, not a bit of it. But she heard it all again and again.

 

All talk. It's the same disgruntled mumbling we hear in every region Rand takes over. And again, there's still no evidence that the majority of Andorans are willing to rise up against Rand. Elayne's words are extremely vague in regards to how many people have actually expressed that sentiment. In all the time Rand ruled, there were no plots against him, no rebellions like there were in Tear or elsewhere. The only incident in Andor was the power grab by Elenia and Naean, which was influenced by Rand's kidnapping and the meddling of the Aes Sedai, rather than any popular rebellion. The belief that the Andorans would actively rise and take back their country seems more like a naive belief of the nobility born from their sense of entitlement over the rule of their nation than anything else. If there were a serious rebellion or a riot, or if a usurper had historically taken power and then been driven out by a grassroots rebellion then Elayne's beliefs would be more realistic.

[Mr Ares]

I see no reason to believe that. After all, against one of the Chosen, Elayne could call on the White Tower. If nothing else, she could call on Egwene and Nynaeve - Rand went into battle alone.

 

Do Elayne, Egwene, and Nyneave (or the Aes Sedai in general) even know how to fight a male channeller? Apart from shielding him I mean, like how Rand and Lanfear were fighting. Because if they don't I have hard time seeing them succeeding in a fight against Rahvin. He would probably have wards set up, and know they were in Caemlyn immediately. And Rahvin wouldn't be stupid enough to take on a great number of Aes Sedai. He would simply take them out one by one. After all they have no way of detecting him, and since they can't see weaves of saidin, they would have no way of defending themselves.

He would find it much harder to take them on one by one if they were linked. They can't see his weaves, but he can't see theirs either. For Elayne alone it might be too hard a fight, but if he is having to take on, say, two links of two, he is outnumbered and outgunned. They're probably stronger than him as well, and he would find it hard to win a fight. He's either run or die in all likelihood.

 

 

 

I think it was much more likely Rand would have hardly any problems with most of Andorans had he decided to alter Andor's traditions and take the throne or give it to somebody, than that Elayne or Morgase would be able to free Andor from Rahvin's grip. Rand needed a lot of luck to do it, while Morgase and Elayne simply did not have adequate resources, both on channeling and military fronts.

 

I see no reason to believe that. After all, against one of the Chosen, Elayne could call on the White Tower. If nothing else, she could call on Egwene and Nynaeve - Rand went into battle alone.

 

I think it is beyond doubt that a direct White Tower military intervention in Andor would spark the reaction much worse than anything Rand could have triggered by his alleged disrespect for Andor's independence.

Aes Sedai dethroning a legitimate ruler is bad. Even meddling to the extent of taking down a usurper is something that would be seen as not good. But taking down a Chosen? Well, isn't that precisely the sort of thing that the AS should be doing?

 

What is more, when would Elayne be able to call on the White Tower?

Rebels or Tower both, either would come. Elaida would hardly want to pass up a chance to get he claws into Elayne and Andor - it helps further the power of the WT. Alviarin was something of a non-issue - she gained leverage over Elaida thanks to the BT debacle, and lost it soon afterwards when the news broke during her absence. She wouldn't really have the leverage to stop Elaida. Mesaana might well try to stop them or she might well be willing to let them take down her rival.

 

Furthermore, Rand did not go alone.

He fought Rahvin alone. The others weren't important for that.

 

1. I don't think any potential Andoran rebels have the skills, the soldiers and the right battleground to wage a guerilla compaign. Ituralde was a great captain with seasoned soldiers, the terrain was different, the enemy was different. Aiel and Asha'man has huge mobility and firepower advantage, it is counterproductive to use guerilla tactics against enemy who is more mobile and better commanded and more efficient in such type of war than your own forces.

The Andorans have the biggest advantage - this is their country. They know it better than anyone, and any rebels can blend in with the native population, because they are the native population. There are sufficient experienced soldiers in Andor to train any potential rebels. What effective control can Rand exercise if the moment his back is turned, every town, village and city in the country ignores him, and every time he marches in no rebels are to be found? Rand could very easily find himself with zero effective control of the country, and his soldiers being picked off in ones and twos every time they go on patrol. Unless he's willing to start massacring civilians, he's not going to win any time soon. How are hordes of Aiel going to comabat that?

 

2.Asha'man knew what kind of treatment could they expect from their own countrymen had they not gone to the Black Tower (see Owyn's example). I doubt they would place any loyalty to the country they effectively had to flee over that to the one person who offered them some kind of safety and a goal in life beyond going mad and dying.

They didn't have to flee to the BT, they weren't shunned or rejected. Most of them are learners. And even so, they will not necessarily be so keen to turn their backs on their country and slaughter their countrymen.

 

3. I just don't see an unified Andoran front against Rand. Deylin and few other nobles, with general sympathy of the commoners would not mean the whole country going against Rand(I concede the quotes show anti-Rand mood, but the commoners rather talk than rebel. They have their jobs and families to tend to - and they don't love Trakands very much right now).

It doesn't need to be all of them, not by a wide margin. It only needs to be enough of them, and to fight in the right way, and Rand's position will quickly become untenable.

 

 

As for the Ashaman, it's made clear to them when they join the BT that the only loyalty they have from there on is to the BT.

Doesn't mean they will agree with the official stance when push comes to shove and their families, friends and neighbours are in the firing line.

 

 

Tactics, of course - the Seanchan are the greatest naval power in the world, and starting a battle that damages Seanchan naval forces is hardly to be advised when you need these people as allies. In return, the only benefit is that it makes it slightly easier to bind the Sea Folk to Rand. That could be done anyway. As I said, dubious benefits.

 

Ah, I was referring to the Sea Folk, as I'd forgotten the Seanchan were an equally dominant force on the sea. That's the point here; you're ignoring the major benefit by considering the Seanchan to be the only ones that matter - the Sea Folk themselves.

No. I'm pointing out the Sea Folk can be gained either way. So bringing the Sea Folk closer while at the same time hurting the Seanchan is not all upside for the Light. As I have said from the start, dubious benefit. Double edged. Help the Sea Folk hurt the Seanchan, or don't help either. Works out the same in the end, more or less. You've not shown a massive upside to the Light, all things considered.

 

We're talking about the Sea Folk that Elayne managed to bargain just fine with. Yes, they're experienced and tough negotiators. So what? So are a lot of people (Saldaean merchants have that reputation as well).

 

Show me an equal feat among the Saldaeans? I mean, you do understand exactly what Zaida took from Elayne, right?

Domani were the ones I was thinking of, but no matter, it's not important. The Sea Folk gained a small bit of land. They will still need to pay customs duties to trade with Andor. Where's the downside to Andor?

 

What did Elayne get for this exchange, giving up land Andorans had bled and died to preserve?

The ability to feed her people. The Sea Folk are tough negotiators, but not miraculously good in a way that only ta'veren can beat. Elayne is inexperienced. All things considered, her bargain was not bad. An experienced negotiator should fare much better. If they were so tough to negotiate with that none but ta'veren could get a good deal, why would anyone bother? There are overland routes, river traders and sea traders that, while maybe not as fast, could be considerably cheaper. Except in the case of perishable goods, what the Sea Folk provide isn't indisposable, and even then they can simply keep trade more local than it otherwise would be. What do the Sea Folk do then? Simply put, if people couldn't get a good deal out of the Sea Folk, they wouldn't deal with them any more than they had to, which isn't a lot. So the assertion that only ta'veren can best them is rather unlikely, all things considered.

 

The same way any other commoner would - by petitioning someone in power. Kings and nobles listen to petitions from commoners. Yes, it would take time (although her being an Illuminator could help speed things along - having access to fireworks might not be of military benefit, but in thelong term it could always be good to be the only monarch with an Illuminator).

 

As far as anyone knows, the Illuminator guilds are completely wiped out and she's a madwoman with stolen fireworks making outlandish claims.

As far as anyone knows, she's telling the truth. That's why you get her to prove it. Her ideas can't be stolen, because only she can make them work unless she gives the secret away - or do you think she would be so careless as to write it all down and hand it over in good faith? Absence of Mat makes things a little harder, makes them take a little longer, nothing more. No fighting against the Seanchan? No fireworks, no cannons. Maybe she'll go elsewhere.

 

Or Agelmar Jagad, Gareth Bryne, Davram Bashere, Rodel ituralde, and probably a lot of others as well (I don't think it's only Great Captains who could see the benefits of such a weapon). As long as she can show it to someone who will see the potential (and it was her good fortune to meet with Mat, a man who could most definitely see their potential, making the whole thing much easier than it might otherwise have been.

 

It was Mat's ta'veren nature that created that meeting, not plain old good fortune. Really, what has Mat given her other than a pretty bottom to be appreciated?

Not much. He sped things along a little. Such access is very likely. All she needs to do is wait for an audience with someone in power, and then make use of it. Mat does now what might otherwise take months of waiting. That's it, he cuts out a wait. Do you think no commoner ever got a meeting with a noble prior to Matrim bloody Cauthon coming along? If she gets a meeting, just point out she's an illuminator. That alone could buy her time to prove she is what she says. She uses that proof to leverage her new idea. I'm not saying she'll just claim to be an Illuminator and be believed - but if she says "give me a month and a little money and I'll give you a firework display" then she's on rather solid ground. All she needs to do then is set off a few fireworks after a month. Mat is a convenient middleman, nothing more. Without him, she finds another middleman or she does it herself. I'm not saying it'll be overnight, I'm not saying it'll be before TG. I'm saying it will happen. Elayne is also replaceable, but not to the same extent, because she has access to resources that a lot of monarchs don't. She's also receptive to new ideas, something which helps Aludra. In this respect, there are more Mats than there are Elaynes.

 

Well, you still need her expertise to manufacture gunpowder to use the bloody weapons. And unless there is some sort of long term accord with the Seanchan, having a weapon to use against them is an attractive possibility (and there is always the possibility of using them against other enemies).

 

You need her knowledge to make any significant amount of gunpowder. Once you have that, she's useless.

Why would she be giving you the knowledge? She can make it herself. If she needs apprentices to help her, they don't have to have the whole process - compartmentalise the information, and keep some knowledge for yourself, and they won't be able to piece it together. Without said information, they cannot get rid of you. You are indispensible

 

Ta'veren affects chance - it makes the improbable probable, not the impossible possible.

 

It makes the improbable possible, not easier, not probable.

No, that's exectly what it does. Easier, more probable, but it could happen anyway, and often the odds aren't all that long.

 

This doesn't actually relate to the initial point you were responding to.

 

The point I was responding to was your claim that I was singling Elayne out when I was clearly doing no such thing.

Which has nothing to do with the argument. Go back and read.

Understand that -you- cannot speak for -me- on what I am doing.

Yes, I can. All you can do is ask me not to. Now, are you actually going to come up with an argument, or just keep making baseless claims with little to nothing by way of evidence or reasoning to support them?

[XXX]

If one group has travelling like the Ashaman...just a small group say 10 of them can be used to assassinate every single noble in Andor who rises against Rand. There can be no rebellion if there are no leaders.

And no one in their right mind will take on chaneelers..which is why the BT stays in Andor. No one can do anything about it.

[XXX]

Two possibilities, same end. Neither requires stupidity, just the time-honored failure of arrogance coupled with ignorance.

 

Which the forsaken obviously posses in spades...

 

Ignorance? Yes, as a matter of fact. They've just been bumped how many thousand of years into the future, a world nearly unrecognizably different from their own. Ignorance should not be surprising unless the DO's got a magic "catch up" program that fixes all that. That's the best example, though what we're talking about here is more from their own age. Each has different areas of expertise, and as far as I know, there's nothing in the books suggesting that the Age of Legends had mastered TAR, just that they knew how to get there and could manipulate it well enough to survive in it. Relatively speaking that's a great deal more than the current Age, but that doesn't imply omniscience any more than our real-life Age knowing more about outer space than the neanderthals suggests we know everything about space.

 

I disagree...the forsaken have centuries of experience in TAR. Their age had training ter'angreal used to teach people to walk the TAR. That can only mean that they had an extensive training program. And the first rule in TAR is that your mind controls reality in there.

 

Frankly that scene with Egwene and Messana was not written well.

[Mr Ares]

If one group has travelling like the Ashaman...just a small group say 10 of them can be used to assassinate every single noble in Andor who rises against Rand. There can be no rebellion if there are no leaders.

And no one in their right mind will take on chaneelers..which is why the BT stays in Andor. No one can do anything about it.

Ituralde took on channelers. Is he not in his right mind? (I suppose that chaneelers might be more dangerous than mere channelers, but I don't of any chaneelers.) And assassinating every noble in the Kingdom does you no good if the commoners are rebelling, and find their own leaders. Commoners can rebel, remember, they don't need nobles to lead them. So will you kill every commoner who rises against Rand? How can you be sure you've got them all? Best to make sure - kill everyone in Andor.

[Guest PiotrekS]

 

He would find it much harder to take them on one by one if they were linked. They can't see his weaves, but he can't see theirs either. For Elayne alone it might be too hard a fight, but if he is having to take on, say, two links of two, he is outnumbered and outgunned. They're probably stronger than him as well, and he would find it hard to win a fight. He's either run or die in all likelihood.

 

First of all, Rand was able to sense Rahvin's weaves and go to him through the gateway. Before that, Rahvin was comfortably controlling the battle from remote location and doing quite well. The supergirls would not even be able to sense Rahvin - and they would be detected and hit by the wards he had in Caemlyn. Were they even able to weave gateways at the time?

 

Second, it wasn't irrelevant that Rand had others with him - they took care of Rahvin's army and allowed Rand to take on Rahvin one on one. Supergirls would also need somebody to carve a path to Rahvin for them - and it seems they did not have such force. Even the military strenth of the Tower Guards is insignificant compared to Rand's army which is tailor-made for fast and extremely tough combat. Tower guards in Andor would spark the opposition way beyond that against Rand.

 

 

I think it was much more likely Rand would have hardly any problems with most of Andorans had he decided to alter Andor's traditions and take the throne or give it to somebody, than that Elayne or Morgase would be able to free Andor from Rahvin's grip. Rand needed a lot of luck to do it, while Morgase and Elayne simply did not have adequate resources, both on channeling and military fronts.

 

I see no reason to believe that. After all, against one of the Chosen, Elayne could call on the White Tower. If nothing else, she could call on Egwene and Nynaeve - Rand went into battle alone.

 

I think it is beyond doubt that a direct White Tower military intervention in Andor would spark the reaction much worse than anything Rand could have triggered by his alleged disrespect for Andor's independence.

Aes Sedai dethroning a legitimate ruler is bad. Even meddling to the extent of taking down a usurper is something that would be seen as not good. But taking down a Chosen? Well, isn't that precisely the sort of thing that the AS should be doing?

 

Rand took out Rahvin and Suttree made a god job of showing the distrust he received in consideration from the Andorans. If the Aes Sedai were to intervene - with almost everybody already convinced they crave control and power - it would be much worse. Moreover, it is very possible most people simply wouldn't believe Gaebril was Rahvin - they would suspect some Aes Sedai plot. In addition, the Aes Sedai themselves might have trouble in acknowledging the Forsaken are loose and also with publicizing the fact.

 

What is more, when would Elayne be able to call on the White Tower?

Rebels or Tower both, either would come. Elaida would hardly want to pass up a chance to get he claws into Elayne and Andor - it helps further the power of the WT. Alviarin was something of a non-issue - she gained leverage over Elaida thanks to the BT debacle, and lost it soon afterwards when the news broke during her absence. She wouldn't really have the leverage to stop Elaida. Mesaana might well try to stop them or she might well be willing to let them take down her rival.

 

If Elayne were to call on Elaida, she would probably have to resign her freedom, return to the Tower and submit to Elaida.

The rebels would have trouble with deciding to go and sacrifice a huge number of their soldiers in fighting over Andor, possibly giving away any hope of winning the war against Elaida and making themselves vulnerable to her strike.

 

It seems to me at that moment of the books the Dark One was already taking the Forsaken in line. It is more possible Mesaana would inform the Dark One and the Supergirls might even find more of the Forsaken waiting in Caemlyn.

 

Finally, I don't think that either of the factions of Aes Sedai had sufficient strenth to get to take Caemlyn. They had no travelling, their army wasn't particularly impressive, their battle skills were rusty to say the least.

Furthermore, Rand did not go alone.

He fought Rahvin alone. The others weren't important for that.

 

See above. The others were important because they took care of other dangers and allowed Rand to concentrate on Rahvin.

1. I don't think any potential Andoran rebels have the skills, the soldiers and the right battleground to wage a guerilla compaign. Ituralde was a great captain with seasoned soldiers, the terrain was different, the enemy was different. Aiel and Asha'man has huge mobility and firepower advantage, it is counterproductive to use guerilla tactics against enemy who is more mobile and better commanded and more efficient in such type of war than your own forces.

The Andorans have the biggest advantage - this is their country. They know it better than anyone, and any rebels can blend in with the native population, because they are the native population. There are sufficient experienced soldiers in Andor to train any potential rebels. What effective control can Rand exercise if the moment his back is turned, every town, village and city in the country ignores him, and every time he marches in no rebels are to be found? Rand could very easily find himself with zero effective control of the country, and his soldiers being picked off in ones and twos every time they go on patrol. Unless he's willing to start massacring civilians, he's not going to win any time soon. How are hordes of Aiel going to comabat that?

 

If that was the case, then every occupied country would be able to wage a succesful guerilla compaign against the invader. History shows it is not the case. You can't fight a guerilla compaign against the enemy who is much more mobile than you in addition to his superior firepower, who is much better at fighting in different kinds of terrain, be it mountains or forests. Your scenario ignores the fact that the rebels would not be able to use efficient "hit and run" tactics against the foes who would simply run them down without any problem. To blend with the natives, you need time and speed advantage they don't have. What's more, the main part of Andor -areas around Caemlyn etc., discounting Two Rivers or Mountains of Mist, seems to be a pretty heavily populated, flat country with highly developed agriculture and strong river trade. The guerilla fighters would not have where to hide.

 

The unform rebellion and solidarity of every town, farm and village against Rand would not be likely. They grumble, but the whole nation would never raise in rebellion. Look at the history, there are always those who simply do not want to fight or can't stand those who want or would like but are afraid etc. I find it more likely that the further from Caemlyn, the less interested in who's sitting on Lion Throne people would be.

2.Asha'man knew what kind of treatment could they expect from their own countrymen had they not gone to the Black Tower (see Owyn's example). I doubt they would place any loyalty to the country they effectively had to flee over that to the one person who offered them some kind of safety and a goal in life beyond going mad and dying.

They didn't have to flee to the BT, they weren't shunned or rejected. Most of them are learners. And even so, they will not necessarily be so keen to turn their backs on their country and slaughter their countrymen.

 

Those who did not show the signs yet could live in peace. But they knew they could expect no mercy when they started channeling or even if they didn't, but would like to go back home with the brand of men who can channel. I think male channelers were, before the Cleansing, in unique position of very strong alienation from the rest of society.

 

They might be reluctant to slaughter their countrymen in large, but some rebelling nobles -no problem.

As the last resort, Rand could simply use Asha'man from other countries, while sending Andoran Asha'man somewhere far for the time.

Look at what happened in many, many countries where people rose against the regime - it took a long time for the police and the army to refuse to shoot their countrymen. At first, when the chances of rebels' success seem small, there are always people ready to pull the trigger. Sad but true. And it does not really apply to our hypothetical situation.

 

3. I just don't see an unified Andoran front against Rand. Deylin and few other nobles, with general sympathy of the commoners would not mean the whole country going against Rand(I concede the quotes show anti-Rand mood, but the commoners rather talk than rebel. They have their jobs and families to tend to - and they don't love Trakands very much right now).

It doesn't need to be all of them, not by a wide margin. It only needs to be enough of them, and to fight in the right way, and Rand's position will quickly become untenable.

 

To pull off things you describe, it would have to be a fairly universal and popular movement. Unlikely for two main reasons:

1. Creating a massive movement require time, resources, people and freedom of action - things the rebels wouldn't have. The more people they would gather, the more visible and less mobile they would become - an easy target for the Aiel and the Asha'man.

2. Too many divisions and conflicts within Andoran society, particularly nobility.

[Suttree]

All talk. It's the same disgruntled mumbling we hear in every region Rand takes over. And again, there's still no evidence that the majority of Andorans are willing to rise up against Rand. Elayne's words are extremely vague in regards to how many people have actually expressed that sentiment. In all the time Rand ruled, there were no plots against him, no rebellions like there were in Tear or elsewhere. The only incident in Andor was the power grab by Elenia and Naean, which was influenced by Rand's kidnapping and the meddling of the Aes Sedai, rather than any popular rebellion. The belief that the Andorans would actively rise and take back their country seems more like a naive belief of the nobility born from their sense of entitlement over the rule of their nation than anything else. If there were a serious rebellion or a riot, or if a usurper had historically taken power and then been driven out by a grassroots rebellion then Elayne's beliefs would be more realistic.

 

Not true in terms of plots and incidents, there was the other rebellion in Aringill that Dyelin(trying to place her as Queen) had to put down that happened while Rand was firmly in power. That incident highlights the fact that Rand controlled Caemlyn and nothing more.

 

The second quote provided says Elayne heard a "great deal" and that everyone even thos anti-Trakand believed "Rand Al Thor an invader". You can deny it all you want but RJ took pains to show us what both the nobles and commoners were thinking. Andor is different than any other country in it's patriotism this is told to us time and time again throughout the books. It is all written clearly in the text, if you have quote to back up your interpretation please provide them. Otherwise let's stick with the picture RJ painted.

 

If one group has travelling like the Ashaman...just a small group say 10 of them can be used to assassinate every single noble in Andor who rises against Rand. There can be no rebellion if there are no leaders.

And no one in their right mind will take on chaneelers..which is why the BT stays in Andor. No one can do anything about it.

Ituralde took on channelers. Is he not in his right mind? (I suppose that chaneelers might be more dangerous than mere channelers, but I don't of any chaneelers.) And assassinating every noble in the Kingdom does you no good if the commoners are rebelling, and find their own leaders. Commoners can rebel, remember, they don't need nobles to lead them. So will you kill every commoner who rises against Rand? How can you be sure you've got them all? Best to make sure - kill everyone in Andor.

 

Also as has been mentioned this goes back to Phyrric victory situation. Rand is not going to kill the nobles of Andor in the months leading up to TG. There are many obvious reasons why that would be a disaster.

 

I disagree...the forsaken have centuries of experience in TAR.

 

Do they? How old where they when they were sealed and how long has it been since they were released.