[Basic Mafia] Firefly: Alliance Intervention- Night 2

[keyholder21]

Sorry I've been a bit quiet thus far. Another game I'm in is pretty much over, which will free up my time to be over here. I'll be on to make a more through analysis tomorrow morning my time (about 9-10 hours from now) but at the moment, I have to agree with Phelix, Deadly, and Reyn. Csarmi is acting very suspicious, and his arguments aren't helping his case any. However, lynching a proclaimed cop is dangerous, especially this early. In fact, the earliness of CS's proclamation is actually in his favor in my eyes. Why would the mafia risk declaring this early? In every other game I've been in, the cop has waited OR has proclaimed early and then proceeded to help the town win (or at the very least get the town pretty far).

[danneric]

Hmm this sounds interesting. I will have to study some more and get back with some discussion type replies.

[Niniel]

Again - as I understand it, you never lynch an uncontested claimed finder, not under any circumstances. I am not defending Csarmis claim but following basic maffia logic. I find it very scummy that people would actually want to lynch the finder with no solid evidence to support that he is not. I think that the only circumstance by which we should lynch Csarmi is if another finder comes out with a claim of having found a scum. Then we could lynch the person being accused of being scum. If the second finder's viewing turns out to be true, then it's clear that Csarmi is lying and we thereby lynch him the next day.

 

Reyn, don't confuse presenting a logical case NOT lynching a claimed finder with me supporting his claim. We will have to wait and see with Csarmi.

[csarmi]

See exactly my point. cs is on the defence. He is either trying to make it look as if phelix is scum and drag him down or phelix has hit a nerve and cs cant take it. Only my observation of course.

 

I have nothing vs Phelix. Actually, I hope he's a townie. But you see, in my eyes everyone has a 3/8 chance to be a scum (except me and the person I viewed). I'm not good at judging people from their posts. I just hope someone IS good at that.

[Tynaal Consen]

What I'm confused on is why you feel Csarmi is confirmed in his role. Even though he is uncontested he has not offered proof. And a wise Cop would not reveal himself unless necessary, not even for a scum false reveal. His actions still stand as being suspicious to me. I wonder if he was not just trying to dig out the real cop or protect himself from lynches. Did anyone notice that the mafia went after a completely different target, rather than a very important claimed role?

 

What think you?

 

I agree with this. Either we can have the mafia decide that "oh crap he's not one of us, so maybe the doc will protect him", or they know that he is one of theirs and the doc might have fallen for their ploy and protected him, leaving all other targets open.

 

 

Again, I revealed only because I felt I was in too much of a danger (danger, which was mostly the result of my stupidity) by then. Three votes, no one even close at T-3 hours looked very much like a lynch on me (and remember, I had to logout as it was 22h in the night here already and I couldn't afford to stay up longer - else i would have waited till L-2).

 

As for the Maffia going against another target, that's natural - they'd have been stupid to target me: the doctor would protect me (who else?) and they'd fail their kill. What would be the point of that?

 

I wouldn't say I'm confirmed in my role either. That would take some proving yet.

 

Your posts always sway from one idea to another, during last day you swayed from threats to hinting that you were the cop and now you posted as if your role was confirm and then changed to agree with us that we have not yet had a way to confirm you role. Now this might simply be due to language miscommunication or that you're simply playing very inconsistently.

 

And why do you believe the doc should protect you? Sure there is no other person he knows that might be a possible target and it would be a loss to lose our finder, nevertheless it does raise hackles that you go from being so sure of yourself to not being sure. (inconsistency again)

 

 

still safe = can't be NightKilled

 

Unless the Doctor stops protecting me, which is almost on the same level as a DayKill (Lynch).

As long as no one else claims Cop, I'm uncontested, if I read that word correctly. Of course even if I was lying, it would be a very bad idea for the real Cop to contest me w/o information, but that's besides the point.

 

I AM suspicious. I understand that. You wouldn't (and shouldn't) just trust me yet. Especially as I've given no information whatsoever.

 

Phelix, your actions and MCS's actions WERE suspicious. That MCS was innocent doesn't change that fact. Even your innocence wouldn't change that. I don't understand why voting on someone who put the 2nd or 3rd vote on a player is such a bad call. Before last night, I had exactly the same information as anyone else. As you can see, I couldn't find a scum at night either, not surprising I misfired the day.

 

As for Deadlyfriend, I hate to see him die. I was pretty sure he was town. I'm not very surprised he went down, though myself I'd have bet on someone else dying (maybe THAT someone is scum tho and thats why he/she survived).

Why aren't you surprised that it was deadly that was lynched? And bandwagoning is normal on the first day (to a certain degree at any rate)

 

I do agree, CS has remained suspicious through every post he has made. The question is whether we dare to lose a possible Cop by a lynch?

 

Unless anyone has any better suggestions for who is scummy, CS is the only one raising major flags, and has yet to provide anything solid towards his case. He has acted and brought forth information with what could rightly be alterior motives, and has possibly taken our doctor away from protecting themselves or others they consider townies, which I would think would be the wisest decision for them to make in this case when there is so much fuss over CS's actual role. However, it seems to me that Tina has been contributing a lot towards CS's case, excluding I think one, maybe two posts against him. Not only were they together in trying to get us to vote for inactives way early in the game, but it seems like they are working together to get everyone else to believe CS's role claim.

 

Because I am unsure and unwilling to risk a possible cop, I feel like my best vote is on Tina - and I feel like we can get the most information back from a lynch on her. If she is scum, then I feel like CS is that much more likely to be as well.

 

 

That's pretty solid reasoning, Reyn. I was thinking similar thoughts myself. I'd be comfortable voting for either CS or Tina, but I'll hold off on voting until later. We have until midday on Wednesday (Pacific Time). We've got about 40 hours left at the time of this post.

 

I don't think we want to see another Mod Kill, so let's discuss and figure out what we really think as a group. Reyn's made some very good points, and I'm sure you're aware of where I stand. Tanaus seems to be in a similar spot as Reyn and I. Tina, Csarmi, Keyholder, MCS, Arlow, Mottlee, and Deadly... your votes matter. What do you guys think?

 

I agree on Tina being a good person to try a lynch on, as she has not yet shown herself to be anything more than a vanilla and her defines of CS could speak against him if she does prove to be Mafia.

Hmmm I've looked back on posts and Tina and CS really do just seem to work in tandem (if you'd like to say so) For mafia, that would be pretty stupid to be so openly aligned, but as it's first time play it'd be an easy mistake to make. Nevertheless it might also be a ruse they're trying to pull off.

 

 

I'm not good at judging people from their posts. I just hope someone IS good at that.

 

Being able to see through peoples posts and read into them is what makes a good mafia player.

 

 

Also.. Somewhere further back Cs said something about "No one would lynch poor deadly" you reckon this speaks for your honesty Cs?

[csarmi]

Now if you can pick somthing scummy about "this" post i will be pleased

This seems like a taunt Deadly, just like something scum would do .

 

Only a scum would accuse poor Deadly :)

[csarmi]

Why aren't you surprised that it was deadly that was lynched? And bandwagoning is normal on the first day (to a certain degree at any rate)

 

Because when figuring out my night action, I had to think about who the Maffia would kill now. (No use viewing that guy, for instance)

My take was that they'd go for Tina Hel, or Deadly for stretagical purposes (they'd want to lynch me at some point). Of course, I couldn't be sure that they were not scum either. (Now I'm sure Deadly wasn't a scum, but Tina still might be).

[keyholder21]

Why aren't you surprised that it was deadly that was lynched? And bandwagoning is normal on the first day (to a certain degree at any rate)

 

Because when figuring out my night action, I had to think about who the Maffia would kill now. (No use viewing that guy, for instance)

My take was that they'd go for Tina Hel, or Deadly for stretagical purposes (they'd want to lynch me at some point). Of course, I couldn't be sure that they were not scum either. (Now I'm sure Deadly wasn't a scum, but Tina still might be).

 

What strategical purposes would they have had for going after Deadly?

[csarmi]

It really was just a vague idea, and as I'm quite inexperienced, probably not a flawless argument.

To me, he did seem someone who would back me up (or wouldn't oppose me without giving it lot of thought). For some reason, I also had the impression he knew what he was doing.

Also, he didn't speak against me, as I could recall. So I figured, he'd be a good kill for Maffia (provided he was innocent, ofc), as they would want to see me lynched at some point.

All those are just guesses, however.

[keyholder21]

Ok, finished my read-through. Damn CS, you sound scummy and if you do turn out to be mafia then you have some great teammates. Despite your scummy posts, though, you claim Cop and I’m not about to lynch our cop so had to look for something else. Apologies in advance for the long post, had to catch my thoughts up.

 

So Tina, you think its scummy to vote for the cop. Personally i think he is lying, he is only claiming hes the cop in hopes that the doctor will fall for it and give him protection, and having at least one other scum vote on him to put the pressure of "oh no's! we gonna lose the cop!" he could also be trying to lure out the real cop. And also for some one who is a newb, you sure do like to drop info about the game... perhaps there are ppl helping you....

 

Tanaus, I think it’s scummy to vote for the cop too – at least right now. We’re already down two townies and if CS is the cop then we’re not only down three going into night, but we’ve also lynched the only surefire way to (possibly) find a mafia member. I understand your hesitation to believe him, but I don’t think we should lynch him at the moment.

Your comment about Tina, though, feels spot on. Through my reread I was wondering that myself.

 

 

He says that he won't claim to have an important role, and talks about the cop a bit too much, and then claims to be cop to try and get out of being lynched. I find it suspicious, and will keep an eye on you if you survive the night. Csarmi.

 

This is a bit of a Catch 22 and also restating the feel of the group anyway. There’s no way to ‘win’ in this situation. If he is the cop, that is. If he is killed – that’s bad for town; if he is protected by the doc and survives, you’re going to be suspicious of him anyway? We’re already suspicious of him.

 

Well now I better keep what I say to a bare minimum unless I want to get killed again. Geez

 

No. This is what the mafia wants you to do. If you don’t talk, then there is no conversation going and then the game stalls and its random lynches galore.

 

 

Now what bugs me is this: we are down to 7-3. Lynching randomly would risk losing a useful townie (we have three right now including the mysterious Unkown Vanilla). So we'd better find a scum for next day it might be 5-3 (which doesn't look very well even with a doctor/cop/2 confirmed townies alive).

 

 

What?

 

What I'm confused on is why you feel Csarmi is confirmed in his role. Even though he is uncontested he has not offered proof. And a wise Cop would not reveal himself unless necessary, not even for a scum false reveal. His actions still stand as being suspicious to me. I wonder if he was not just trying to dig out the real cop or protect himself from lynches. Did anyone notice that the mafia went after a completely different target, rather than a very important claimed role?

 

What think you?

 

I think that the doc probably protected Csarmi and the mafia knew it so they went after someone else. Don’t we all have mentors to help guide us?

 

I just don't see why the Doctor should be protecting you, CS. You admit you're suspicious and not to be trusted, and yet you expect that the Doctor will save you because you claim to be the Cop. It doesn't make sense to me.

 

Why wouldn't the doc protect him? So far he's the only one to claim finder - the only other power role in the game. The doc wouldn't be worth his/her salt if (s)he didn't protect CS. He would have been a very obvious mark for the mafia. I can understand the rest of you doubting him, but I don't understand you doubting the cop protecting him.

 

 

 

It really was just a vague idea, and as I'm quite inexperienced, probably not a flawless argument.

To me, he did seem someone who would back me up (or wouldn't oppose me without giving it lot of thought). For some reason, I also had the impression he knew what he was doing.

Also, he didn't speak against me, as I could recall. So I figured, he'd be a good kill for Maffia (provided he was innocent, ofc), as they would want to see me lynched at some point.

All those are just guesses, however.

 

Not sure I understand your reasoning. More likely it was as someone (can't remember who atm) said - that he was rather quiet and had even posted that he was going to stay quiet, so they wanted to kill someone that wouldn't give us a whole lot of info.

[csarmi]

 

 

Now what bugs me is this: we are down to 7-3. Lynching randomly would risk losing a useful townie (we have three right now including the mysterious Unkown Vanilla). So we'd better find a scum for next day it might be 5-3 (which doesn't look very well even with a doctor/cop/2 confirmed townies alive).

 

 

What?

 

 

Doctor, Cop, confirmed Townie = 3 players that shouldn't be lynched, if possible

 

 

It really was just a vague idea, and as I'm quite inexperienced, probably not a flawless argument.

To me, he did seem someone who would back me up (or wouldn't oppose me without giving it lot of thought). For some reason, I also had the impression he knew what he was doing.

Also, he didn't speak against me, as I could recall. So I figured, he'd be a good kill for Maffia (provided he was innocent, ofc), as they would want to see me lynched at some point.

All those are just guesses, however.

 

Not sure I understand your reasoning. More likely it was as someone (can't remember who atm) said - that he was rather quiet and had even posted that he was going to stay quiet, so they wanted to kill someone that wouldn't give us a whole lot of info.

 

Well, maybe that was it then. I admit I never really thought it through. I did make a list in my mind, however. Which is probably a quite flawed list but one haa to try to learn the game somewhere I dunno, honestly. Some instinct told me it would be really bad to lose him, though, and as that's good for Maffia...

[csarmi]

Well, maybe that was it then. I admit I never really thought it through. I did make a list in my mind, however. Which is probably a quite flawed list but one haa to try to learn the game somewhere I dunno, honestly. Some instinct told me it would be really bad to lose him, though, and as that's good for Maffia...

 

Should read:

 

Well, maybe that was it then. I admit I never really thought it through. I did make a list in my mind, however. Which is probably a quite flawed list but one haa to try to learn the game somewhere. I dunno, honestly. Some instinct told me it would be really bad to lose him, though, and as that's good for Maffia...

[mottlee]

Tina, Csarmi, Keyholder, MCS, Arlow, Mottlee, and Deadly... your votes matter. What do you guys think?

 

ok well for me i don't really know what to think. on one hand CS is uncontested as the cop but on the other from the few games i've played and read the cop doesn't out themselves the way he did. i could understand if he was at L2 or L1 but he wasn't even over the half way mark. plus the fact that we have exerienced players mentoring us all and i just can not see one of them saying to Cs to out himself like that unless he is mafia trying to out the real cop.

 

so yeah thats what i have so far if you guys want to lynch CS i'll put my vote in but till then i'm gonna have to go back over the thread so far and see if anyone else jumps out at me. i'm in a different timezone i think to most of u. how long do we have till end of day. like in hours.

[danneric]

Umm CS thats the same exact thing in the quote. Hmmm im starting to see a good reasoning why not to suspect CS but i still need more consideration because in mafia you need hard, solid evidence to trust someone and so far there isnt solid evidence anywhere to be found. So i will just see what happens and see if some more claims or more evidence gets found.

[csarmi]

The difference is only a '.', but it DID change the feel of the sentences to me. Read again :)

[Phelix]

 

I just don't see why the Doctor should be protecting you, CS. You admit you're suspicious and not to be trusted, and yet you expect that the Doctor will save you because you claim to be the Cop. It doesn't make sense to me.

 

Why wouldn't the doc protect him? So far he's the only one to claim finder - the only other power role in the game. The doc wouldn't be worth his/her salt if (s)he didn't protect CS. He would have been a very obvious mark for the mafia. I can understand the rest of you doubting him, but I don't understand you doubting the cop protecting him.

 

Trying to think like the doctor, with my own natural suspicion, I don't trust CS. He walks like scum, quacks like scum, chances are he is scum... if I were the Doctor, I might have protected him the first night, but the fact that the Mafia didn't try to lynch him then, that they took out a regular townie, I would feel played. I believe it was your analysis earlier saying that CS's talk might be a ploy to leave the rest of the Town open to attack... and that's what this looks like to me.

 

He went from "I won't say..." to "I'm the cop, protect me!" really quickly.

 

That's just my thinking. If I were the doctor, I wouldn't trust him beyond that first day, and I probably wouldn't continue protecting him. *shrug*

[keyholder21]

Umm CS thats the same exact thing in the quote. Hmmm im starting to see a good reasoning why not to suspect CS but i still need more consideration because in mafia you need hard, solid evidence to trust someone and so far there isnt solid evidence anywhere to be found. So i will just see what happens and see if some more claims or more evidence gets found.

 

LOL. Good luck finding that love.

[csarmi]

Yea :)

[Reyn]

All I have to add at this point is that time is ticking and I'm the only one who has voted. Either let's take action on CS or let's, for now, start talking about someone else we can lynch.... Cuz right now all CS is doing is distracting is from other possible scum.

[Phelix]

I'm sorry... I got hypnotized by your avatar's tongue...

 

Anyhoo... as much as I'd like to vote for CS, it doesn't look like there's enough support for that, so I'll join you in voting Tina.

 

Vote Tina.

[Phelix]

Also, for those looking at the clock wondering what the deadline is... we have approximately 26 hours left, if I read things correctly.

[keyholder21]

All I have to add at this point is that time is ticking and I'm the only one who has voted. Either let's take action on CS or let's, for now, start talking about someone else we can lynch.... Cuz right now all CS is doing is distracting is from other possible scum.

 

Fair enough. I'm willing to go with a vote on Tina for now, if only because we don't have much info on anyone and it IS weird that she's a 'newbie' that knows so much about the game.

[keyholder21]

Gah! Apparently the bold didn't work.

Vote Tina

[csarmi]

All I have to add at this point is that time is ticking and I'm the only one who has voted. Either let's take action on CS or let's, for now, start talking about someone else we can lynch.... Cuz right now all CS is doing is distracting is from other possible scum.

 

Well, I'm trying my best not to distract you, that's why I'm not saying much. While you do have a valid point, I'd like to note, however, that discussing me might yield a lot of information. I'm being told that it should help casing people (whether they post against me, or back me up, how they do that, etc). I'm supposed to gain a lot of information out of it, and so is the other townsfolk. Even if we can't make conclusions NOW, we should be able to do so later, depending on what happens. That is the theory. I don't really know how to case people properly just yet, but I do want to learn that.

[Niniel]

You all know that we have mentors that can give us a helping hand if needed. I´m supriced that your mentors haven´t told you that voteting for a claimed cop is a "no no". If you do it then you should expect to be questioned about it. Some of you try hard to make it look like I´m siding with Csarmi. If you read again what I say you will find that that isn´t true. Csarmi is in every way scummy and if he turns out to be a fake cop I would certainly be the first one voteing him but until we know more I won´t do that. So insted, why don´t we look a little bit deeper in Tanaus reasoning.

 

 

Even tho Reyn is scum for throwing me in front of the bus, i'm gonna vote Csarmi cause its even scummier to try and play the sympathy card.

 

This was Tanaus first vote on day one. Nothing stange about that. We all voted randomly until we thought that we had found something scummy.

 

 

So Tina, you think its scummy to vote for the cop. Personally i think he is lying, he is only claiming hes the cop in hopes that the doctor will fall for it and give him protection, and having at least one other scum vote on him to put the pressure of "oh no's! we gonna lose the cop!" he could also be trying to lure out the real cop. And also for some one who is a newb, you sure do like to drop info about the game... perhaps there are ppl helping you....

 

Tanaus knows that Csarmi claims to be cop. And he still doesn´t change his vote. He then try to make me look suspicious by saying that I maybe have someone helping me. This is really scummy since we all know that we have maffia play mentors in this game. Of course I have someone who can help me, so does everyone else. Don´t you have someone that can help you, Tanaus?

 

 

To go ahead and answer Tina's question again, i don't think hes being honest, therefore, no un-vote. And i would also like to point out that you are the only one who has jumped on his wagon of "i'm the cop". Perhaps there is belief that he could not make ppl believe him so there needed to be some one to support him?

 

I also don't feel like i'm being defensive, only explaining why i'm doing what i'm doing.

 

So perhaps you can answer the question of, why are you'll only posts in defense of CS with no proof?

 

Well I´m not the only one that argues about not lynching an uncontested claimed cop. Noone has voted him jet - has they? Both Reyn and Keyholder says that Csarmi is scummy but that they don´t whants to lynch him.

 

I also think that it is a good idea to have a controlled lynch. That lynch should be on someone who we thinks is maffia. Well, Tanaus I think you look realy scummy. If you want me to change my mind you have to give us all a good explenation of your behavior or you have to make me one of those yammi tacos your talking about. Waiting for that I vote Tanaus.