Moiraine post ToG

[Matrim DeLaneous]

Pretty long posts in this thread - think I've read all of them.  I may have missed it but has anyone speculated on who could have possibly healed Lanfear / Cyndane, assuming it was a man who can channel? 

 

I ask primarily because no on seems to know who she (Cyndane) is / was at the meetings except for maybe Ishy/Moridin. From the EoTW prologue, I think we learn that Ishy's strength isn't in healing and he uses a different (more painful)method than that used by our current healers. 

 

Also, I'm not sure but I don't think there is any evidence in the texts to assume that anyone other than Damer & Nynaeve are able to heal stilling / burning out or any other types of birching.  Especially among the Forsaken!

[Nightstrike]

Previously I've not taken into account the fact that 37.5 percent of all channelers were "too weak". Or that Moiraine level is extremely rare. I'm going to "assume" (for sake of argument) that 1.0=as strong as a woman can be and 0.5=the mean of all potential channelers (we're pretending we have an absolutely symmetric curve). I'm also going to assume that only 1 of every 200 potential channelers are stronger than Moiraine. With a spread of hundreds of thousands of channeler souls, that means Moiraine is at 0.792 in strength. That level is 0.792 times the strength that any woman can be - the strongest one ever!

 

The spread from weakest to strongest channeler is at least 8.84 standard deviations. Twentyfive percent of all potential channelers are within 0.32 standard deviations from the mean. Channelers above +0.32 standard deviations is 37.5 percent of the entire population. Their mean is roughly 1.07 standard deviations from the mean of all potential channelers. The mean of all Aes Sedai is therefore 0.57, instead of the mean of 0.5 (for all potential channelers).

 

 

Lets pretend for a little while that I'm wrong. They really were talking of "two thirds of what they lost", not "two thirds of what they were". They really did mean something else than what they actually said.

 

y=Siuan's old strength

x=the amount of strength Siuan lost

0.57=average Aes Sedai strength

 

(y-x)+0.667x=0.57

y=0.57+0.333x

 

1 in every 200 is above old Siuan, which means she's at 0.79 in strength.

0.79=0.57+0.333x

x=0.66

 

So, she used to be 0.79 in strength, and then she lost 0.66 in strength. That means that she lost 84 percent of her strength.

 

Only conclusions I can draw is that the (strength) curve isn't symmetric about the mean, and that she meant that Nynaeve could take them up to two thirds of the strength that they once had.

 

 

 

[dmanmiller34]

*gasp* Math... Brain freezing.... can't.... finish...... reading.....  /passes out on the keyboard dddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddd ;D

[Nightstrike]

Well, the main point is that we don't get a whole lot higher mean than the mean of all potential channelers. And that Moiraine must be very high up on the strength scale, if the strength curve is symmetric.

 

[Red Hand Man]

*gasp* Math... Brain freezing.... can't.... finish...... reading.....  /passes out on the keyboard dddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddd ;D

 

Is that smiley face an odd tongue twitch or something?

Also, remember the old saying, "statistics lie and liars use statistics."

 

Also, I'm not sure but I don't think there is any evidence in the texts to assume that anyone other than Damer & Nynaeve are able to heal stilling / burning out or any other types of birching.  Especially among the Forsaken!

 

Nynaeve was pretty much forced to teach all of the Yellows in Salidar how to do it, there is likely a BA-Yellow with them.  Someone earlier posited that they could have been summoned by Ishydin and taken care of Cyndane.

 

Well, the main point is that we don't get a whole lot higher mean than the mean of all potential channelers. And that Moiraine must be very high up on the strength scale, if the strength curve is symmetric.

 

 

You're figuring a normal distribution, correct (that's what RJ said he used)?

[Nightstrike]

Also, remember the old saying, "statistics lie and liars use statistics."

What is the lie about?

 

You're figuring a normal distribution, correct (that's what RJ said he used)?

No, it can't be a perfectly symmetric (bell-shaped) curve. Not if the OP strength is the thing we're looking at.

 

[Charlz Guybon]

For what its worth:

 

http://13depository.blogspot.com/2009/02/saidar-strength-ranking.html

 

I think its pretty well researched.

 

Suian went from level 12 to level 5. A drop of 7 points or 58%.

Leane went from level 11 to 5. A drop of 6 points or 54%.

 

Lanfear went from level 21 to level 20. A drop of 1 point or 4.7%.

 

 

 

Of course the next argument is whether or not the scale is logarithmic or exponential...

I think there's a jump of about 25% between levels. So for example, if Moraine = 1.00, Egwene = 1.95, and Nyneave is 3.05.

 

Egwene being roughly twice as strong as Moraine, and Nyneave being roughly half again as strong as Egwene seems right to me.

[Matrim DeLaneous]

Also, I'm not sure but I don't think there is any evidence in the texts to assume that anyone other than Damer & Nynaeve are able to heal stilling / burning out or any other types of birching.  Especially among the Forsaken!

Nynaeve was pretty much forced to teach all of the Yellows in Salidar how to do it, there is likely a BA-Yellow with them.  Someone earlier posited that they could have been summoned by Ishydin and taken care of Cyndane.

I anticipated that answer and agreeably understand that it's possible, but do not think that it's likely.  The Salidar Aeis Sedai have been under pretty tight raps.  

[Luckers]

Also, I'm not sure but I don't think there is any evidence in the texts to assume that anyone other than Damer & Nynaeve are able to heal stilling / burning out or any other types of birching.  Especially among the Forsaken!

Nynaeve was pretty much forced to teach all of the Yellows in Salidar how to do it, there is likely a BA-Yellow with them.  Someone earlier posited that they could have been summoned by Ishydin and taken care of Cyndane.

I anticipated that answer and agreeably understand that it's possible, but do not think that it's likely.  The Salidar Aeis Sedai have been under pretty tight raps. 

 

Actually the custom of privacy attached itself almost immediately to travelling. No one may ask questions about where a sister is travelling too, or what their purpose may be. Siuan states that at any one time up to twenty sisters were absent from the camp.

 

That would easily include Black-Yellows.

[Red Hand Man]

Also, remember the old saying, "statistics lie and liars use statistics."

What is the lie about?

 

You're figuring a normal distribution, correct (that's what RJ said he used)?

No, it can't be a perfectly symmetric (bell-shaped) curve. Not if the OP strength is the thing we're looking at.

 

 

There is no "lie", it is just a common phrase meaning that you can support any viewpoint you want with statistics (take the stock market for example).

 

A normal distribution is a bell shaped curve with the median centered about 0.5*scale, I forget offhand if there is a specific standard deviation, but yes, you are suggesting a normal distribution.

 

edit:  it can be a perfectly symmetrical bell shaped curve, because the Creator -- RJ that is, made it that way, it's just that there is a certain cutoff at the lower end that the WT does not accept, but the Aiel do.

 

 

Actually the custom of privacy attached itself almost immediately to travelling. No one may ask questions about where a sister is travelling too, or what their purpose may be. Siuan states that at any one time up to twenty sisters were absent from the camp.

 

That would easily include Black-Yellows.

 

Thanks Luckers.

[Nightstrike]

There is no "lie", it is just a common phrase meaning that you can support any viewpoint you want with statistics (take the stock market for example).

In this case, the only correct way of supporting any correct viewpoint lead us to the fact that the strength distribution can't be forming any perfectly symmetric curve. I've proven it better before, in other threads. Without the kind of "assumptions" I did in this thread. Assumptions or no assumptions, OP strength distributions do not form any symmetric curve. If you have any particular objections, then specify them. Saying that I'm wrong, without explaning yourself, isn't productive at all. If we're going to bounce those kinds of statements back and forth, then we might as well not post at all.   ;)

 

 

 

 

[Red Hand Man]

There is no "lie", it is just a common phrase meaning that you can support any viewpoint you want with statistics (take the stock market for example).

In this case, the only correct way of supporting any correct viewpoint lead us to the fact that the strength distribution can't be forming any perfectly symmetric curve. I've proven it better before, in other threads. Without the kind of "assumptions" I did in this thread. Assumptions or no assumptions, OP strength distributions do not form any symmetric curve. If you have any particular objections, then specify them. Saying that I'm wrong, without explaning yourself, isn't productive at all. If we're going to bounce those kinds of statements back and forth, then we might as well not post at all.   ;)

 

 

 

 

 

Well, I wasn't trying to imply that you were wrong, sorry about that.  I just wanted to throw in a fun quip and get a little nerdy about statistics.

 

Anyways, do you have a link to the thread you are referring to?  I will gladly "read up" on this before posting about it again.

 

p.s. - you're wrong and always will be! muahahaha /sarc

[Nightstrike]

Well, I think it's spread out in several threads. Can't rememember what their names were now. I assumed that we had a population of 10 000 channeler souls, with varying strengths. But, now I've realized that there are at least several hundred thousand channeler souls. So my argument is even stronger than I thought before.

 

 

 

I think this following is part of the stuff I wrote then (but my argument is stronger than this, as I said):

Assuming that we have a population of roughly 10 000 potential channelers of each gender. Both curves are symmetric, according to you. Weakest man and weakest woman are roughly of equal strength. I assume that the weakest channelers are all very, very close to zero in strength. So close that the difference is negligible. Exactly 62.5% of all the women are above the strength that exactly 65.4% of all men are above. That's -0.32 standard deviations from the mean for women and -0.4 standard deviations from the mean for men. The population size gives a span of roughly 3.8 standard deviations from mean to each end of the distribution. Using the scale of women's strengths as reference, the male average strength is 2.4% above that of women. (3.48/3.4 =x/3.8 => x=3.889   & 3.889/3.8=1.024).

 

If we were to assume a bigger population, the difference men/women would be even smaller. If we were to assume that the weakest channeler was a bit above zero in strength, the difference men/women would also be even smaller.

 

Compare that to RJ saying "several levels of male strength on top of women's strength". The word "several" means AT THE VERY LEAST 3 (levels). That would lead us to either (3/24=>)12.5% or (3/21=>)14.3% difference men/women - MINIMUM. If we assume that the scale isn't exponential, in which case the minimum difference must be higher, of course.

 

 

If the weakest man is slightly stronger than the weakest woman, then the difference is less than I said before. If the weakest man is weaker than the weakest woman (weaker than Morgase, is that even possible?), then the difference is slightly more than I said before. But just slightly, so it doesn't even change anything from what I said before. The same conclusion as before.

 

As an example, let us explore the possibility that the weakest man is weaker than Morgase. And by a value of strength that corresponds to exactly 1 strength level, or the equivalent of ((1/18)*3.8=) 0.211 standard deviations of the female strength. How much stronger would the average man be then, compared to the average woman? Both curves (male and female strength distributions) are assumed to be symmetric in this comparison, whether they really are or not. The weakest man is very close to zero in strength.

 

Exactly 62.5% of all the women are above the strength that exactly 65.4% of all men are above. That's -0.32 standard deviations from the mean for women and -0.4 standard deviations from the mean for men. The population size gives a span of roughly 3.8 standard deviations from mean to each end of the distribution. Using the scale of women's strengths as reference, the male average strength is 2.9% above that of women. ((3.48+0.211)/3.4 =x/3.8 => x=4.125   & 4.125/(3.8+0.211)=1.029).  The strongest man would be about (4.125*2/(3.8*2+0.211)=>) 5.62% stronger than the strongest woman. That’s about  (0.0562*24≈) 1 strength level.

 

If we were to assume a bigger population, the difference men/women would be even smaller. If we were to assume that the weakest channeler was a bit above zero in strength, the difference men/women would also be even smaller.

 

Compare that to RJ saying "several levels of male strength on top of women's strength". The word "several" means AT THE VERY LEAST 3 (levels). That would lead us to either (3/24=>)12.5% or (3/21=>)14.3% difference men/women - MINIMUM. If we assume that the scale isn't exponential, in which case the minimum difference must be higher, of course.

 

 

All based on what RJ said in his blog:

For Gyrehead, Foretelling is not related to strength.  The weakest possible channeler could Foretell as strongly as Elaida or Nicola, or perhaps even more so, depending entirely on the strength of his or her Talent for Foretelling.  The three Red Sitters were sent into exile in 985 NE under Marith Jaen.  Yes, Morgase has slowed, and that is exactly why there is so much emphasis on her looking only ten years older than Perrin when she has children the ages of Elayne and Gawyn.  Regarding the percentage of women who could test for the shawl, it would be 62.5% of the bellcurve.  I’ll leave the maths to you for an idle moment.  The question doesn’t really apply to men, since the Black Tower accepts anyone who can learn to channel, but if the White Tower limits were applied, it would be roughly 65.4% of the bellcurve.  Although, considering the effectiveness question, they should probably set it at the same 62.5%.  Again, the maths are all yours.  Regarding the levels of male strength, while the weakest man and the weakest woman would be roughly equivalent, you might say that there are several levels of male strength on top of the female levels.  Remember to integrate this with what I’ve said elsewhere about effectiveness, though.

 

 

I don't know why the OP strength distribution isn't symmetric. Could there be any biological influence to strength? Is there something else that makes the curve asymmetric? Something causing a skew? I don't know.

[richnewton82]

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[Nightstrike]

As far as we know there's 21 levels of strength in the 1 power for women and ~3 more for men at the top. I'm not completely sure why you're trying to form a normal curve with standard deviations for. The thing I linked is text based on breaks the channelers down by rough level equivalents. That is how RJ said he did it in his notes for sake of saying in the text who defers to who and what not. The issue now is, while we know on a point scale who is more powerful than who and even how much was lost by each of the 3 people in question and what that represents as a percentage of their power (in terms of the 21 scale) we don't know that its linear, exponential, or logarithmic scale. I doubt it is strongly exponential because that would have put the top channelers at absurd strength levels relative to everybody else and that clearly is not the case.

Are you suggesting that we have a bell-shaped curve based upon, for instance, OP strength squared? Or something like that? That could be possible, I suppose.

 

They are stronger, but not by absurd margins. What we do know though is that Suian's quote implies that they lost more than 50% of their power.

Yes, I agree completely.

 

So does the drop in their power level on a 21 point scale. So atleast that correlates. Lanfear lost only 1 point so less than 5% of her power strength. Which I think is what has happened in the story too. I think Greandal would have remarked if she was suddenly SUBSTANTIALLY weaker in the power (50% or more to match Siuan's loss). She isn't though. She's got less but not a lot less.

That could be possible, I suppose. Did they say how much each level means in the text that is on 13:th depository? Because I read the text that was on wotmania, and I can't recall any of that.

 

overall I think that chart, the research behind it, knowing RJ setup a 21 point scale, and the fact that Lanfear is still the most powerful female channeler we know about even with a loss of strength is adequate evidence to suggest that a woman did not heal her. Even the website says as much.

Are you talking about the 13:th depository one? I need to read that text. Cyndane is a bit of a puzzle.

 

[Nightstrike]

(sorry about double-posting, I saw this later addition by richnewton82, and didn't want him to miss me answering him on this)

That would mean that Rand, Ishmael, LTT, and other extremely strong male channelers (probably Taim and Logain) would be at a MIMIMUM, 2x stronger than Lanfear at original strength because RJ told us there are 3 levels of men above the highest woman and we've been told Lanfear was the strongest woman ever and the Dragon and Ishmael were the strongest Men ever.. And that is clearly not the case. They are stronger but only enough that a Woman's ability to weave delicately is able to overcome the power difference.

He said that "you could say" that there are several levels of male strength on top of female strength. Lanfear could be an anomaly of some kind or another. I don't think she necessarily is a very long way down from some of the strongest males. Though I do think that average females are roughly half the strength of an average man.

 

[Red Hand Man]

Nightstrike:  Thank you for digging that up and going through the math.  I will admit that I was wrong and being at work I probably shouldn't have commented, because I didn't have the time to go through the math.  I was basing my assumption of a normal curve on what I had read that RJ said, I probably mis-read it.  I'll chew through this a bit more and send you a message about it, I think we've hijacked enough :)

 

Re-reading the quote from Lord of Chaos - To Heal Again, it is obvious that they are less than half of what they were, it is quite clear.

 

Anyways, that's not the crux of Lucker's theory (which we are all arguing debating about, right?), it is that you can heal burnouts, but I think someone sited that burned out people couldn't even sense the source?

 

There was something Setalle Anan said to Mat when he showed her the fox head medallion, I don't remember what book it is in, but they were still with the menagerie...

[richnewton82]

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[dwn]

My better demons tell me not to even read this thread anymore...

 

Does it not strike anyone as silly and futile to try to apply ANY mathematical model to the subject of magic in a piece of literary fiction?

 

Given:

1) New Siuan is weaker than Old Siuan

2) New Leane is weaker than Old Leane

3) Cyndane is weaker than Lanfear

4) Siuan and Leane were stilled, then healed using Nynaeve's weave

 

Therefore:

It is probable that Lanfear was stilled (or burned out), then healed using a similar weave.

 

Lacking any new evidence, that's the only logical conclusion we can make.  Regarding relative strength in the Power, I'm reminded of a quote by Babylon 5 creator J. Michael Straczynski, that hyperspace travel is at the "speed of the plot."

 

-- dwn

 

[fratello del lupo]

Here's an example of what that would look like:

 

 

For fun, if anybody is interested, they could try to find the function that fits those 5 points.

(0,0) (a,5) (2a,12) (b,20) (2b,21)

Goodluck with that... considering we don't know a or b lol :)

 

For Suian and Leane to lose the same metric amount of strength across 7 or 6 levels of loss as Lanfear who lost 1 rather than a flat 50% for all 3 people, the graph would still have to be sharply exponential.

 

http://img22.imageshack.us/img22/8786/99058849.jpg[/img]

 

You could also try to find that equation given the 5 points we know.

(0,0) (a,5) (2a,12) (b,20) (b+a,21)

Again.. goodluck lol.

 

Those coordinates are actually (0,0), (5,a), (12,2a), (20,b), (21, 2b)

 

And I am working on it.

[Nightstrike]

You are wanting to do an analysis, statistically, of channeler strength since we know RJ has stated that the population of channelers both male and female, adhere to a bell curve. You wanted to use that reasoning to further an argument but I'm not quite sure what you were going to argue or how you're going to argue it. Maybe you could clarify because I'm really interested. :)

My only argument is that we can't draw any conclusions that are based upon the Bell curve. For some reason or another. I don't know why that is so.

 

I also explained, in several threads (including this one), that Siuan & Leane lost more than half their strengths after being Healed by a woman. And that they wanted to be Healed up to two thirds of the strength they were at before.

 

 

[Mr Ares]

I may have missed it but has anyone speculated on who could have possibly healed Lanfear / Cyndane, assuming it was a man who can channel?

If it was a man, she would have been Healed all the way.

[richnewton82]

.

[richnewton82]

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[Matrim DeLaneous]

I may have missed it but has anyone speculated on who could have possibly healed Lanfear / Cyndane, assuming it was a man who can channel?

If it was a man, she would have been Healed all the way.

My error - meant to say woman