Theory on the Red Ajah

[RobertAlexWillis]

I think I have discovered the root difference in our theories.

 

I dont think that A Memory of Light will cover more than a month, total elapsed time, from the beginning of the book to the end of Tarmon Gai'don. I don't think there is time for Moridin to start in motion what you describe now, because I think Rand is going to force the issue before then. He can gather his strike force and move on Shayol Ghul within, say, a week, once all the infighting is settled. Moridin knows he has to come to Shayol Ghul at some point, his blood on those slopes is what is going to save mankind, according to the prophecies. I picture Tarmon Gai'don taking place DEEP in the Blight as a result of the Light attacking. And I don't think Rand, or the Pattern, are going to leave Moridin time to do what you describe.

 

Most of the differences in what we describe can be traced to that. You've asked repeatedly (and I've made points based on it repeatedly) why I was so insistent on immediacy. It's because I don't think there is very much time left AT ALL.

[Luckers]

Not nessasarily... i too agree that aMoL will cover little more then a month... maybe two. After the t attack by the forces k from Tar Valon a counter attack by the forces of the light will be proposed. Rand will travel to each of his forces gathering them, including the Borderlanders where, i suspect, he will be attacked. in that battle Tenobia and Bashere will die, and Perrin will come to Rand's rescue... it wont be anywhere as simple as that, but there needs to be a slight break between the battle of Tar Valon and the counter-attack. But that counter-attack WILL be instigated, on a wide-scale within a month of the end of KoD

 

This is how i think the book will work.

 

Prologue.

-Lan, having assembled his forces, witnesses the Trolloc incursion.

 

-Mat, having done whatever, approaches the Tower of Genjii.

 

-Alviarin gains access to doesine and Yukiri. (this will be big, i suspect... a majority of the prologue culminating in the begining of a confrontation between the black and the hunters... i have no evidence of this, though the mere existence of the hunters wont be for nothing... It may go the opposite as well, Pevara may get their hands on Alviarin. I havn't decided yet)

 

-Rand gets message that Tuon wants to meet. Likely to cover the situation in Arad Domon, and Interulde... probably no real drama from Graendal. That may happen, but if it does i suspect it will be later.

 

-Couple of random pov's, like Elaynes.

 

1/2 of the book.

-I rather suspect this will begin with Egwene serving Elaida, and the Seanchan attack. Bringing Egwene close to the power base makes sense for the revelation of the assault.

 

-In any case the majority of this will be alternating between Egwene and others... This part of the book will be on the Tower mostly. You'll get Lan, you'll get mat, and you'll get Rand towards the end.

 

-It'll culminate with Rand having landed in Tar Valon with Tuon to help drive back the Trollocs. Mat and Moiraine and the others will, i suspect, have escaped by this point.

 

2/2

 

-This will deal initially with a bit of a back off... Rand gathering his forces, Elayne turning her attention outwards, the fight between Logain and Taim... a couple of of other things. It wont stay there for long it'll move on to fighting the Trollocs.

 

-This will be done in quite a lot of detail, even so the whole last 1/4 of the book will be dedicated to Rand's attack on Shayol Ghoul... not exclusively, but it will begin at the very latest by then.

 

Altogether im guessing aMoL will last 5, maybe 6 weeks.

[RobertAlexWillis]

This is a little tricky ... Jordan's books and POV skips are not always linear, (for example, Rand finished cleansing the taint at the end of Winter's Heart, but people still felt it halfway through Crossroads of Twilight) Unless the Trolloc army has already started down, it can't reach Tar Valon to coincide with a Seanchan attack that coincides with the inevitable confrontation between Elaida and Egwene when Eggy serves Elly (I would LOVE to call them both that to their face ... if i had Mat's medallion and a good horse under me). That service was scheduled for "tonight" as of the last Tower POV in Knife of Dreams. And, unless he pulled some unlinear storylines on us, it happens almost simultaneously with Rand capturing Semirhage, and Tuon getting back to Ebou Dar. I don't doubt that Seanchan force is en route, it is part of a long standing plan. But again, unless Moridin anticipated failure, then he wouldn't have started the armies yet, because the Light isn't that close to unifying from his POV, until after he knows of the failures. A month is not enough time for an army of Shadowspawn currently in the Blight to reach Tar Valon. If they were totally unopposed, they MIGHT make it.in that amount of time, but they will be opposed by half of Shienar's strength, on high alert, and if they're delayed significantly, Lan's Crane followers can take them in either the flank or the rear. Long before they get to Tar Valon. And if the Seanchan conflict in TV drags on for a month, there will be heavy losses. I'm sure that in addition to the initial strike force, Tuon has larger armies poised to go north, (else why would she be concerned about people knowing troop placements at the Molvaine pass, as a clue to where they were going)to serve as an occupying force, or a relief force if the initial attack stalls. They will take much longer, but if they get there before the conflict is over, they could be decisive, and if it is over before they get there , then the Shadow faces a unified force in Tar Valon, and the remains of the Borderland forces (not the ones in Andor, the ones they came through on the way down) at their rear. Plus, if Moridin empties the Blight in a massive, all fronts attack, what will be left to stop the assault he has to know Rand plans on Shayol Ghul? The Shadow has a lot of troops, but they aren't infinite.

 

If Lan has assembled his forces enough to witness the Trolloc invasion, then months have passed. It takes at least two months for him to ride from World's End to Fal Moran, and longer if he gathers an army, which is inevitable given his oath and Nynaeve's actions. The Tower situation is not going to keep for two months, even without a Seanchan invasion, which we both agree is imminent. Mat "having done whatever" leaves a big hole. The Tower of Ghenjei is north of Baerlon. It will take him a while to get there, unless he bumps into some channelers who can Travel, and surprisingly, there are none in his vicinity. (Surprsingly because they seem to be everywhere else.)

 

There is alot to tie up. I think the mechanism is going to have to be ... "Um, I just broke the last seal people, stop what you're doing and we go in NOW." said by Rand al'Thor. Rand can probably locate Mat and Perrin through the little swirly colors, and everyone else is in a relatively well known location. Rand is the only one who can gather everyone, and he won't do it until he's ready to strike, because he knows that whatever alliance is formed, it won't be strong, and once he DOES gather them, he'll strike with everything he's got, because I doubt he's sure how much longer he can hold on.

 

Interestingly, I'm not sure how Rand's "beggar mode" will fit into either of our theories, unless it is a very short period, perhaps following the attack he suffers from the Borderlander army (13 Black Ajah) in Andor.

 

In any case, there are valid points in your argument, and it is internally logical. I disagree, but I have been wrong before, and certainly will be again. I don't think we're going to hash this one out, and who knows, maybe we'll be lucky and RJ will surprise us both.

[Luckers]

Actually an army of shadowspawn could reach Tar valon in less then a month. Far less. It's been said several times that shadowspawn armies move faster the human armies--as fast as horses with more stamina. The Band can travel 40 miles in a day, and they have foot soldiers--nevertheless they are the fastest human army around. I believe a Shadowspawn army could move faster. Even with Lan harrassing them.

 

If they came out of the blight and met Lan at the same time that the seanchan attacked, then they would reach Tar Valon in perfect time. The distance isn't that far, there isn't a chance it would take them more then 10 days to get from Tarwin's Gap to tar Valon. So, a week.

 

If Lan has assembled his forces enough to witness the Trolloc invasion, then months have passed. It takes at least two months for him to ride from World's End to Fal Moran, and longer if he gathers an army, which is inevitable given his oath and Nynaeve's actions. The Tower situation is not going to keep for two months, even without a Seanchan invasion, which we both agree is imminent. Mat "having done whatever" leaves a big hole. The Tower of Ghenjei is north of Baerlon. It will take him a while to get there, unless he bumps into some channelers who can Travel, and surprisingly, there are none in his vicinity. (Surprsingly because they seem to be everywhere else.)

 

Again, wrong. Lan will have to do little more then ride through the towns, they will already be gathered. I suspect Nynaeve dropped him off a little over a week before Egwene is supposed to meet with Elaida. Its straight after the attack in Tear which is three days before Narishma goes to the Rebels. Given there still needs time after that for Rebels to bond some Asha'men... which i suspect they will have before the attack, i'd place it about a week, probably closer to a week and a half before the Seanchan attack. I agree though, he probably wont be in place to take on the Trollocs, he will arrive, i suspect, to find Shienar defeated, and no one aware of it.

 

Mat's timeline is the least problamatic. He is in the Mandevin Gap, just south of Andor... it'd take him 3, maybe 4 days to get the the Tower of Genjii if he goes straight there.

 

There is alot to tie up. I think the mechanism is going to have to be ... "Um, I just broke the last seal people, stop what you're doing and we go in NOW." said by Rand al'Thor. Rand can probably locate Mat and Perrin through the little swirly colors, and everyone else is in a relatively well known location. Rand is the only one who can gather everyone, and he won't do it until he's ready to strike, because he knows that whatever alliance is formed, it won't be strong, and once he DOES gather them, he'll strike with everything he's got, because I doubt he's sure how much longer he can hold on.

 

This seems extremely unlikely. It would invalidate half the stuff RJ has done in all the other books, including multiple prophecies and character establishments. This is no sword and sorcery trilogy. The simple fact is if he expects and sort of climax, he's gonna have to up the pace and up the scale from step one.

 

Interestingly, I'm not sure how Rand's "beggar mode" will fit into either of our theories, unless it is a very short period, perhaps following the attack he suffers from the Borderlander army (13 Black Ajah) in Andor.

 

My suspicion is that that is not Rand, it's Moridin following the body-swap. I suspect Rand will leave him broken in Rand's body to run off an face the Dark One, and he'll escape, and that in the prologue we'll see him months later barely surviving as a beggar, then we'll see Alivia and possibly Rand come up to 'help him die'.

[RobertAlexWillis]

Actually an army of shadowspawn could reach Tar valon in less then a month. Far less. It's been said several times that shadowspawn armies move faster the human armies--as fast as horses with more stamina. The Band can travel 40 miles in a day, and they have foot soldiers--nevertheless they are the fastest human army around. I believe a Shadowspawn army could move faster. Even with Lan harrassing them.

 

If they came out of the blight and met Lan at the same time that the seanchan attacked, then they would reach Tar Valon in perfect time. The distance isn't that far, there isn't a chance it would take them more then 10 days to get from Tarwin's Gap to tar Valon. So, a week.

 

Your vision of Randland is much smaller, physically, than mine. How long did it take Ingtar's company to ride from Fal Dara to Cairhien? The distance from Tarwin's Gap to Tar Valon isn't THAT much smaller. They were a small company pushing hard, keeping up with a small company of Shadowspawn, pushing hard. Small companies ALWAYS move faster than armies, because they don't have the logistics problems. For Trollocs, fodder will be scarce between Shienar and Tar Valon. Unless they take prisoners with them, which WILL slow them down. One 10 day week is incredibly optimistic. Amazingly optimistic. One reason the Band has been able to move so fast is that it has been relatively small. The larger a force, the slower it moves. Do you think less than half a million trollocs can take on Tar Valon?

 

Again, wrong. Lan will have to do little more then ride through the towns, they will already be gathered. I suspect Nynaeve dropped him off a little over a week before Egwene is supposed to meet with Elaida. Its straight after the attack in Tear which is three days before Narishma goes to the Rebels. Given there still needs time after that for Rebels to bond some Asha'men... which i suspect they will have before the attack, i'd place it about a week, probably closer to a week and a half before the Seanchan attack. I agree though, he probably wont be in place to take on the Trollocs, he will arrive, i suspect, to find Shienar defeated, and no one aware of it.

 

Mat's timeline is the least problamatic. He is in the Mandevin Gap, just south of Andor... it'd take him 3, maybe 4 days to get the the Tower of Genjii if he goes straight there.

 

Unless RJ completely leaves realistic logistics out of it, Lan cannot simply "ride through", even if the soldiers are already gathered, equipped, and waiting. He takes his responsibilities seriously, and he will have to deal with logistics. The bigger his army gets, the slower it will move. And the distance from World's End to Fal Moran is almost as long as from Tear to Fal Moran. Thats a 2-3 month trip MINIMUM. Provided Nynaeve doesn't meet him along the way and say "We're out of time, come with what you have."

 

Mat's timeline is VERY problematic. The Molvaine Gap is on the Lugard road, which in the Altaran border, is southwest of Lugard. He has as much of Murandy or Altara to cross as he does of Andor. Egwene took Lan halfway to Ebou Dar from Salidar, and it still took him just shy of 7 days to ride in. And he was pushing hard. The distance from the Molvaine Gap to the location of the Tower of Ghenjei is 4 times the distance from Ebou Dar to where Egwene dropped Lan off. Mat would have to move 8 times as fast as he did to make it in 3 1/2 days. Lan moving alone can move FAST. Let's be generous to Mat's chances, though and just say 35 miles per day. Mat would have to move 280 miles per day. Now, I like Mat, but he's not doing that.

 

This seems extremely unlikely. It would invalidate half the stuff RJ has done in all the other books, including multiple prophecies and character establishments.

 

Which prophecies would it cut off?

 

My suspicion is that that is not Rand, it's Moridin following the body-swap. I suspect Rand will leave him broken in Rand's body to run off an face the Dark One, and he'll escape, and that in the prologue we'll see him months later barely surviving as a beggar, then we'll see Alivia and possibly Rand come up to 'help him die'.

 

Thats an interesting idea. I'm still not sold on the whole physical body swap thing, but it will be interesting to see what happens.

[mike]

meh :?

 

why do you persist against each other?

 

where are verin, moiraine and the ogiers that will come with loial? what happens when mat blows the horn again?

 

pay some attention to the fine details that have agonizingly built up during the past few books. some of the POVs are too important to glaze over for the want of war. a lot of the battle is going to take place off of the battlefield because, in the end, those young ladies aren't as powerful as they are for paper filler alone. consider that one is helping to rally an army together for her husband in the north, one is amyrlin seat, one is heir to the throne of andor and the other is a crazy strong aiel wise ones' apprentice tied to rand and elayne by more than just friendship. no aes sedai in the recent past, that we are privy to, has had the kind of power these ladies possess.

 

think of the truces that are all but said between randland and the seanchan. these are due to perrin and mat. theoretically, mat can put a stop to seanchan fighting with a word. tuon lives to serve the empire. duh...that is on seanchan and not where they think they can make it. she serves best to order her "ever victorious army" to cease fighting with randland's people. she probably dies in book 12 due to actions of another of "the blood" anyway. mat is of the blood now due to marriage. blowing that horn will no doubt blow the minds of any seachan that sees artur hawkwing and the 100 companions. what happens to birgitte when he does? does she come face to face with gaidal cain and ride off with him?

 

still, we still don't fully know what is meant by "let the lord of chaos rule". is taim the lord of chaos? he makes it seem so.

who told him of that phrase??? it came straight from DO's mind to one who told a few more.

 

rock, paper, scissors. fine details

[Luckers]

Your vision of Randland is much smaller, physically, than mine. How long did it take Ingtar's company to ride from Fal Dara to Cairhien? The distance from Tarwin's Gap to Tar Valon isn't THAT much smaller. They were a small company pushing hard, keeping up with a small company of Shadowspawn, pushing hard. Small companies ALWAYS move faster than armies, because they don't have the logistics problems. For Trollocs, fodder will be scarce between Shienar and Tar Valon. Unless they take prisoners with them, which WILL slow them down. One 10 day week is incredibly optimistic. Amazingly optimistic. One reason the Band has been able to move so fast is that it has been relatively small. The larger a force, the slower it moves. Do you think less than half a million trollocs can take on Tar Valon?

 

Nope, i reckon it'll be up there in the millions, possibly 2, though i doubt it'll be more then that.

 

The reason larger armies are slower then smaller ones is the logistics of setting up camp, seeing to it that the food caravans will be in the right position, and usually the presense of peasents. A Trolloc army marches at a uniform speed that is as fast as a horse trotting, its food will be the Shienaran people (incidently i start the clock from Lan arriving at Shienar to discover Fal Moran has fallen.) and whilst carrying or herding them will slow the Trollocs down, it wont do so dramatically.

 

More specifically though, why a trolloc horde is faster then a human army by far is the nature of horses. I don't know if you've ever researched horses properly, but the way they are dipicted in fantasy novels and movies, but they dont really go that fast. A real horse can maintain a gallop for maybe 30 minutes, and that may kill it. They have to eat 2 pounds of hay per 100 pounds bodyweight. Your average horse can travel 30 miles a day, at a trot at the fastest, with frequent stops for up to an hour each time.

 

An endurance horse, on the other hand, can make hundred miles, but that requires special training of both horse and rider, and not the sort you'll find in medieval soldiers. But that sort of enduranceis more like what a trolloc can achieve, based on RJ's assertions in the past. They arn't as fragile as horses... who in truth drop dead and go lame at the slightest thing. They don't have a rider, unless they are carrying the sheinarans... and if the Forsaken are smart, one of them will cart the Shienarans arounds by gateway allowing the Trollocs to move at full speed.

 

and as to distance. It ain't that far... Mat instigates simultaneous attacks accross an area of similar size (around 300 miles in diameter, according to to the Seanchan) in only a couple of days. And if he can do that, a Trolloc horde can get from Shienar to Tar Valon in ten days.

 

Unless RJ completely leaves realistic logistics out of it, Lan cannot simply "ride through", even if the soldiers are already gathered, equipped, and waiting. He takes his responsibilities seriously, and he will have to deal with logistics. The bigger his army gets, the slower it will move. And the distance from World's End to Fal Moran is almost as long as from Tear to Fal Moran. Thats a 2-3 month trip MINIMUM. Provided Nynaeve doesn't meet him along the way and say "We're out of time, come with what you have."

 

I disagree. A well-trained army--which by all accounts most borderlanders are experienced with--can move that distance who are moving without peasants could make the trip in far less then that. It takes Moiraine less the a week to travel one quater of what Lan did in New Spring, her stopping at every villiage, and in general riding quite slowly. The logistics of having an army will slow lan, but his fear of attack will drive him to move as fast as he can. He'll make it in time.

 

Mat's timeline is VERY problematic. The Molvaine Gap is on the Lugard road, which in the Altaran border, is southwest of Lugard. He has as much of Murandy or Altara to cross as he does of Andor. Egwene took Lan halfway to Ebou Dar from Salidar, and it still took him just shy of 7 days to ride in. And he was pushing hard. The distance from the Molvaine Gap to the location of the Tower of Ghenjei is 4 times the distance from Ebou Dar to where Egwene dropped Lan off. Mat would have to move 8 times as fast as he did to make it in 3 1/2 days. Lan moving alone can move FAST. Let's be generous to Mat's chances, though and just say 35 miles per day. Mat would have to move 280 miles per day. Now, I like Mat, but he's not doing that.

 

Lan's horse went lame, so i rather doubt he was moving fast... or indeed at all. Mat has said specifically his Band can move 40 miles in a day... and besides, there is no rush for him to get to the Tower of Genjii...

 

Concider this too, Tuon had the same distance to travel back to Ebou Dar as he had to get to the Tower. It seems likely that he's already there, or very close indeed. The attack is still more then a week off from the time when Tuon arrives back in Ebou Dar... he has plenty of time. It's not like he has a time limit in saving Moiraine

 

If Tuon can make it to Ebou Dar in the length of KoD, then a Trolloc Horde can make it to the White Tower from Shienar.

 

Which prophecies would it cut off?

 

How bout the very concept of the Last Battle. The very premise that it is coming is invalidated if all that happens is Rand invades the blight long enough to reseal the Dark One. It'd be weak as. I know you disagree, but im sorry, if Rand does what you say, then the very existence of the Forsaken, all the work they've done in the past 11 books, the fact that Lan has gone north... all of it is invalidated.

 

Moreover, if RJ doesn't bring the attack to the light, then the urgency of the last book itself is in question. The length and scope of the series demands that he up the pace of the last book, up the danger and up the scope or he will not pull it off.

 

why do you persist against each other?

 

Because it interests us. If you have such disdain for it, why do you come to the board?

 

where are verin, moiraine and the ogiers that will come with loial? what happens when mat blows the horn again?

 

This is a thread dealing with the Seanchan assault on the tower, and the subsequent shadow assault... if you wish to discuss those things specifically, start a thread on it.

 

Besides, most of those questions have been addressed... so dont ask them until you've actually read the posts.

 

think of the truces that are all but said between randland and the seanchan. these are due to perrin and mat. theoretically, mat can put a stop to seanchan fighting with a word.

 

He cannot. Mat is Prince of the Ravens, but that gives him no authority to countermand Tuon's orders, and Tuon has indicated a willingness to go against him if she must. They agreed that very likely the next time they would meet would be accross a battlefield. As for Perrin, he gained the respect of one of the Low Blood... he has no influence on Seanchan foreign policy. And again the end of that alliance was the Khirgan warning Perrin that she could not and would not stop the Ever Victorious Armies invading his land.

 

Neither of them have the power to make the Seanchan heal. Only Rand and Tuon will be able to do that.

 

tuon lives to serve the empire. duh...that is on seanchan and not where they think they can make it. she serves best to order her "ever victorious army" to cease fighting with randland's people.

 

I more then agree.

 

she probably dies in book 12 due to actions of another of "the blood" anyway.

 

This i disagree with. Suroth could barely make herself concieve murdering the Empress even with Semirhage's backing. The only one of the Blood who stands in a position to gain from her death is Galgan, and by all indications he is loyal. All of tuon's real opposition is dead, slain by Semirhage, and she managed to survive open confrontation with them for her entire life anyway.

[RobertAlexWillis]

I still think you underestimate the distances involved. When Ingtar and Rand were chasing the Horn, Rand, Loial and Hurin moved between two portal stones, from one south of Shienar in what used to be Hardan, to one in the Kinslayers Dagger. Hurin put the distance at 100 leagues. Measurements in Randland are different; 10 inches=1 foot, 6 feet=1 span, 1000 spans=1 mile, 4 miles=1 league. Backward conversion, assuming inches are the same, since they are the only unaltered unit given, and thus the only comparative basis possible, is 1 league=3.78 real miles. Given those totals, and creating a scale on the big color map in the BWB, I get these totals, in real world measurements.

 

Tarwin's Gap to Tar Valon = 756 - 850.5 real miles

 

Molvaine pass to Tower of Ghenjei = at least 700 real miles

 

Molvaine Pass to Ebou Dar = 500 - 525 miles

 

Tuon's group moving to Ebou Dar has both the best roads and the shortest distance. The Lugard Road runs in an almost straight line back to Ebou Dar.

 

Mat's group has the worst roads, the best road route goes around Garen's Wall to the south, through Ghealdan, then north cross country to the Two Rivers, then up the roads to Baerlon and cross country again up the Arinelle. That adds 100 or so real miles. The route with the least cross country riding is through Lugard, north to Four Kings, back to Whitebridge, then on to Baerlon and north. As that nearly doubles the length, it seems unlikely. The direct route is essentially unroaded the whole way, and there are 2 major rivers to cross, the Manetherendrelle and the Arinelle. Thats not a 3-4 day trip. Thats not even a 2 Randland week trip. The most interesting thing to me is the possibility of them choosing the Ghealdan route, and meeting up with Perrin. The Asha'man with Goldeneyes would make this a moot point.

 

As for the Trollocs, they would have to conquer Shienar in 3 days while marching 75 to 85 real miles per day to make the 10 day trip you propose. There's not really any way I'm going to buy that.

 

The points you make about horses are QUITE valid. But they only support my idea that everyone who can't Travel (that's Lan and Mat) will be moving a little slower.

 

I would be interested to see RJ's assessments which you mentioned on Trolloc army capabilities. The books portray them as lazy, difficult to control, and very undisciplined.

 

The idea of the Forsaken moving food prisoners by gateway is interesting, but it raises new problems of link up and distribution, which would still slow down the army.

 

The "300 mile" campaign waged by the Band was described by Banner General Loune to Furyk Karede was over a 300 mile AREA, not an area with a 300 mile diameter. BIG difference. The total distance moved by individual units in the Band was almost certainly covered in a longer period than "a couple days". Chisen started in front of them, and when Karede caught them, he was a 5 day march away. No matter how fast the Band moved, it took Chisen at least 6 or 7 days to have moved his people that far (a day or two to get the news and stage, 5 days marching). Even assuming each unit of the Band travelled the whole 300 miles, thats just over 42 miles per day for a 7 day campaign, 39 real miles. Thats fast, but possible.

 

I must challenge your assertion about the "concept" of the Last Battle. That is your personal concept, it's not backed up by the books' prophecies. The prophecies dont mention Trolloc hordes, or anything at all like that. All they mention are the signs around Rand, lots of world turmoil, and Rand defeating the Dark One. Lan going north raises another army with untainted loyalty to Rand, if he asks them to strike at Shayol Ghul, so that's not invalidated. And the Forsaken's work/existence must be invalidated, because the Light is going to win. For their work to have been successful, Rand would have to lose. So yes, the Forsaken will be invalidated. Thats already started, (several dead, a majority killed at least once, Halima forced to leave the rebels, Mesaana failing in the Tower, Semirhage captured by Rand. Only two, Graendal and Demandred, remain untainted by serious failure.)

 

The coming of the Day of Return provides the context of urgency. The Light needs to take the battle to the Dark, or risk having to fight a totally free Shai'tan (essentially hopeless). The dead walking and the ripples in reality, as if the world were fog, are evidence that the Dark One is flexing his PERSONAL muscles. How much more urgency does Rand need?

 

Unsurprisingly, I agree with everything you said to mike .... :lol:

[Luckers]

I understand why you doubt it, but nevertheless i still suspect it will fall in the way i suggest.

 

A couple of things. I dont think the Trollocs need only three days to take Shienar, i said thats when the clock of my week is going to start. Lan is going to arrive to see it already taken. Additionally i suggested a week, but there is no harm in it being a week and a half or two. My point was merely that it would only take a short time for the Trollocs to reach Tar Valon a question of days, not months... i still think they'll do it in a week though. I'm basing this more on the way RJ handled the trip back to Ebou Dar for Tuon then your numbers, which are solid, to my mind. He needs them there, and fast, and its not a massive stretch to achieve it that way.

 

And it isn't. An endurance horse can travel 100 miles in a day, a Trolloc should be able to make 80.

 

As for RJ's assertion... its been said many times how fast trollocs can move... when driven. There is a difference between lack of ability and laziness.

 

Also i dont see the forces in Fal Moran being able to resist a million or more Shadowspawn. Very likely it will take no more then a day or two. Very possibly they could be over the walls in the first strike.

 

 

Mat's group has the worst roads, the best road route goes around Garen's Wall to the south, through Ghealdan, then north cross country to the Two Rivers, then up the roads to Baerlon and cross country again up the Arinelle. That adds 100 or so real miles. The route with the least cross country riding is through Lugard, north to Four Kings, back to Whitebridge, then on to Baerlon and north. As that nearly doubles the length, it seems unlikely. The direct route is essentially unroaded the whole way, and there are 2 major rivers to cross, the Manetherendrelle and the Arinelle. Thats not a 3-4 day trip. Thats not even a 2 Randland week trip. The most interesting thing to me is the possibility of them choosing the Ghealdan route, and meeting up with Perrin. The Asha'man with Goldeneyes would make this a moot point.

 

I think you are confused about where the Tower of Genjii is. Its just north of whitebridge, on the river. Why would going through the Two Rivers or Baerlon be easier? Also its been stated many many times that going crosscountry in that area is nearly impossible. The fastest route by far is to go up through Lugard to the Four Kings, and then accross to White Bridge--there may even be a shorter backroad route from Murandy, though usually following the road halves the trip of an armed group. At worst its around the same length as Tuons trip to Ebou Dar.

 

Again though, i dont see the significance... there is no rush for mat. Likely he'll alter course and pick up the rest of the band before heading towards the Tower.

[RobertAlexWillis]

Yeah, I just went over the references again and you're right about the Tower of Ghenjei's location ... that cuts roughly 150 real miles off of Mat's trip.

 

The logistics of the others still seem very stretched to me ... I guess we'll have to wait and see.