Mat's Luck and Channeling

[TrollocFodder]

There's no way Mat's luck is associated with channeling in any way. He has worn his foxhead ter'angreal daily since he got it with seemingly no adverse effects on his luck whatsoever.

 

I'm not sure that rules it out - his luck isn't good only at the moment he's being channeled at. His luck takes steps up at 2 points in the story and remains at those levels. If it were due to the healing or somesuch, the foxhead medallion won't change his luck, just stop it from getting further boosts from being channeled at again.

 

And if Mat has always been a little bit lucky back in Emond's Field, well hasn't he ever been 'healed' by Nynaeve when she was wisdom?

[dholm]

Nynaeve hasn't Healed everyone in the Two Rivers -- in fact, she hasn't even Healed that many. She has Healed Egwene among the people who traveled from Emond's Field with Moiraine and no one else at the time of TEOTW.

 

Your suggestion has no evidence backing it up whatsoever. He has been Healed without his luck getting affected at all.

[TrollocFodder]

Nynaeve hasn't Healed everyone in the Two Rivers -- in fact, she hasn't even Healed that many. She has Healed Egwene among the people who traveled from Emond's Field with Moiraine and no one else at the time of TEOTW.

 

Your suggestion has no evidence backing it up whatsoever. He has been Healed without his luck getting affected at all.

 

I'm kind of thinking aloud here rather than presenting a finished theory, I and see the point about 'healing' not being the reason. My (refined) suggestion then is more to do with some (unknown, not specified in the text) thing that was done to him on the 2 occasions when Aes Sedai helped deal with the dagger - initially Moiraine in Caemlyn, then linked Aes Sedai in the WT.

 

The evidence as I see it...

 

1) Mat appears to have 2 step changes in luck.

 

2) The first step change is first revealed to us when he is dicing in Fal Dara. The party have traveled there from Caemlyn where Moiraine has done something to him. All we know is that she does something to protect him from the taint of the dagger, but falls short of being able to seperate it from him. Not necessarily involving healing.

 

3) The second step change happens when Mat has been completely seperated from the dagger in The White Tower. Again, not necesarily healing but some other weaving.

 

4) Perrin was dicing with Mat in Fal Dara but didn't appear to have the same luck.

 

5) Mat showed no evidence of increased luck between first taking the dagger and Moiraine's partial 'seperation'

 

6) Fain carried the dagger for some time and showed no similar luck

 

7) Mat has been healed on various occasions, and channeled at as well, without the same coincident step in luck

 

My suggestion is that whatever Moiraine did in Caemlyn, and whatever it took to seperate him from the dagger completely, are the cause of his changes in luck. They coincide in time with the changes, they are similar enough events (both relating to removing/protecting Mat from the dagger's taint), and both happened to Mat and Mat alone.

[Mr Ares]

His first "jump" was pathetic.

It still happened. Therefore, the dagger improved his luck.

Conclusion: if timing is the evidence we should go by (as Mr Ares has claimed repeatedly), then we have all the reasons in the world to suspect that the Dagger halted/suppressed/scrambled his luck in some way or another.

We have no reason at all to believe it sauppressed his luck. Timing doesn't fit, it contradicts the evidence.

 

He should have won six tosses in a row occasionally

After the dagger increased his luck, he did so more frequently.

 

There is more evidence that it halted/suppressed/scrambled his luck than that it increased his luck. Read chapter 30 of TDR.

No, there is no evidence.

 

Because Mat coming to a conclusion, and the correctness of that conclusion, are two very different matters.

We only have one solution supported by the evidence, and no reason to disregard it other than it may not be right?

 

Mat gets the dagger from Shadar Logoth

And then gets lucky.

(why not dice for money if he's so lucky?)

He doesn't win every toss. If his luck isn't in...

 

1) Moiraine partially heals Mat, Mat gets quite lucky

He was lucky before then. It happened after he picked up the dagger.

 

Got to conclude his luck is something to do with what happened in the healing/separating

Timing doesn't fit. Luck started before Healing.

 

Mr Ares is right

I think, deep down, we all know that, even if some of you don't want to admit it.

 

1) Mat appears to have 2 step changes in luck.

Yet is Healed on a number of occasions with no resulting change in luck.

 

2) The first step change is first revealed to us when he is dicing in Fal Dara.

Yet, according to his pov, he first got lucky after picking up the dagger. Before Moiraine, before Caemlyn.

 

It doesn't work. It was the dagger. While the complete absence of any evidence to support any other conclusion does make for a compelling case, there really is only one reasonable answer, and that is that it was the dagger.

[Alghar Khan]

His first "jump" was pathetic.

It still happened. Therefore, the dagger improved his luck.

YOU invented the so called "jump". Therefore, it only happened according to YOU. The books does not mention any "jump". It was all YOU.

 

He should have won six tosses in a row occasionally

After the dagger increased his luck, he did so more frequently.

Let me tell you a tale about an absolutely normal guy with absolutely average luck. Not even "Mat in Emond's Field luck". He plays with Hurin during 10 separate days. Each day 60 tosses. The average guy should win 6 in a row, or more than that, 3 or 4 times during that period. What should we expect from Mat, even without any of your invented "jump" in luck? I would say at least 5 times. Probably more. The books don't describe any "jump" in luck after picking up the dagger. It was YOU who did that.

 

 

[Mr Ares]

The books does not mention any "jump". It was all YOU.

Well, the books don't term it a jump, but Mat himself notes that his luck first improved after Shadar Logoth. The quote has been provided. So no, it is not me. It is the book. You're just flat out ignoring the books, aren't you? Not even pretendng to be anything other than a troll with no regard for a reasoned argument based on the facts presented in the books.

[Alghar Khan]

Since the books don't term it a jump (or even describe it in any way that would fit the picture), then maybe it wasn't a jump. Meaning, maybe it was a slight increase happening during the process of becoming a (greater/more important) ta'veren.

[Mr Ares]

Since the books don't term it a jump (or even describe it in any way that would fit the picture), then maybe it wasn't a jump. Meaning, maybe it was a slight increase happening during the process of becoming a (greater/more important) ta'veren.

In other words, his luck increased (or jumped) when he picked up the dagger, which had nothing to do with ta'veren, and the dagger didn't supress his luck.

[Alghar Khan]

In other words, his luck increased (or jumped) when he picked up the dagger, which had nothing to do with ta'veren, and the dagger didn't supress his luck.

??? However did you imagine that conclusion?

[dholm]

It can't be ta'veren.

 

This quote from RJ alone proves it:

 

Jordan: That is a coincidence. When they say that Mat has the Dark One's own luck, he can get as mad as he wants to, but in a way it is true. It wasn't a gift from Lanfear, though"

[Mr Ares]

In other words, his luck increased (or jumped) when he picked up the dagger, which had nothing to do with ta'veren, and the dagger didn't supress his luck.

??? However did you imagine that conclusion?

It's pretty clear.

[Alghar Khan]

It can't be ta'veren.

 

This quote from RJ alone proves it:

 

Jordan: That is a coincidence. When they say that Mat has the Dark One's own luck, he can get as mad as he wants to, but in a way it is true. It wasn't a gift from Lanfear, though"

"In a way", that could mean a lot of things. In the way he got it? In the way it works? In the way it manifests?

 

We don't know if it was the Dagger, the Horn, being ta'veren, or maybe something else... We know that ta'veren such as Mat and Arthur Hawkwing can exhibit extraordinary luck. Even without the Horn or the Dagger. That's what we know for sure.

[dholm]

Certainly it can mean a lot of things, but what it means without a doubt is that it is not ta'veren. Ta'veren have nothing to do with the Great Lord of the Dark; they are an instrument of the Wheel of Time, which is what the Great Lord of the Dark is fighting against.

[Mr Ares]

We don't know if it was the Dagger, the Horn, being ta'veren, or maybe something else...

The timing doesn't fit for the Horn, ta'veren can be ruled out, "something else" is unspecific and unsupported. That leaves the dagger.

[Alghar Khan]

The timing fits for the Dagger to have caused halting/suppression/scrambling of Mat's luck. That leaves pretty much all and everything. Nothing excluded.

[Mr Ares]

The timing fits for the Dagger to have caused halting/suppression/scrambling of Mat's luck.

No it doesn't. That contradicts the facts.

[Alghar Khan]

The timing fits for the Dagger to have caused halting/suppression/scrambling of Mat's luck.

No it doesn't. That contradicts the facts.

We've been over this. There WAS no "jump" when he picked up the Dagger.

[Mr Ares]

The timing fits for the Dagger to have caused halting/suppression/scrambling of Mat's luck.

No it doesn't. That contradicts the facts.

We've been over this. There WAS no "jump" when he picked up the Dagger.

We've been over this many times, but you still deny the facts, troll. His luck increased when he picked up the dagger. The timing does not fit for anything else. Both jumps in his luck relate to the dagger. Nothing else relates to both.

[Alghar Khan]

This is a tale about an absolutely normal guy with absolutely average luck. Not even "Mat in Emond's Field luck". He plays with Hurin during 10 separate days. Each day 60 tosses. The average guy should win 6 in a row, or more than that, 3 or 4 times during that period. What should we expect from Mat, even without any of your invented "jump" in luck? I would say at least 5 times. Probably more. The books don't describe any "jump" in luck after picking up the dagger. It was YOU who did that.

 

THERE WAS NO "JUMP" IN LUCK WHEN HE PICKED UP THE DAGGER.

[Mr Ares]

TDR 30: "The luck had come once he took the dagger from Shadar Logoth"

[Alghar Khan]

Doesn't mean that it was a "jump". Doesn't even mean that he was right. He is an amnesiac, remember?

[Mr Ares]

Clear evidence saying his luck increased after SL.

Absolutely nothing, at all, so much as hinting that the dagger in any way suppressed, impaired or reduced his luck.

No brainer.

[Alghar Khan]

Clear evidence saying his luck increased after SL.

Not so clear as you think. There are DEFINITIVE evidence AGAINST a "jump".

 

Absolutely nothing, at all, so much as hinting that the dagger in any way suppressed, impaired or reduced his luck.

No brainer.

Besides from when he was HEALED from the effects of the Dagger.

[TrollocFodder]

His first "jump" was pathetic.

It still happened. Therefore, the dagger improved his luck.

No, something improved his luck - that the something was the dagger is not established by the fact of the jump happening.

 

Because Mat coming to a conclusion, and the correctness of that conclusion, are two very different matters.

We only have one solution supported by the evidence, and no reason to disregard it other than it may not be right?

It's not supported by the evidence. If the dagger caused his luck, why would it increase most significantly when the dagger is taken away?

 

Tell me how the 'separation theory' (short-hand from now on for: Mat's luck was caused by something done to him by Aes Sedai in separating him from the dagger - first by Moiraine alone to protect him from the taint but not fully separate him, then by linked Aes Sedai to separate him from it) is not supported by the evidence? Come on, hit me with your best "because Mat thinks it's the dagger"!

 

Mat gets the dagger from Shadar Logoth

And then gets lucky.

Really? Can you tell me precisely when we first see evidence of Mat's increased luck? Where is the evidence that Mat's luck had increased significantly between picking up the dagger, and what Moiraine did to him in Caemlyn?

 

(why not dice for money if he's so lucky?)

He doesn't win every toss. If his luck isn't in...

! (falls off chair) so according to you, he picks up dagger, has a step increase in luck, but this doesn't manifest itself until after Caemlyn because 'his luck isn't in'. Really, you can do better than that!

 

1) Moiraine partially heals Mat, Mat gets quite lucky

He was lucky before then. It happened after he picked up the dagger.

When? Show me, and I will believe.

 

Got to conclude his luck is something to do with what happened in the healing/separating

Timing doesn't fit. Luck started before Healing.

When? Show me, and I will believe.

 

Mr Ares is right

Mr Ares uses false reasoning to support any idea of his own and dispute anybody elses. Whether he is right or wrong, the means are unattractive. Lively reasoned debate is enjoyable, dogma is boring.

 

1) Mat appears to have 2 step changes in luck.

Yet is Healed on a number of occasions with no resulting change in luck.

Now this has been pointed out, I agree. But the text does not in fact make it clear what weaves were used on Mat in separating him from the dagger, certainly healing wasn't mentioned, and so I stick with my suggestion - just that it must have been something other than healing, something specific to dealing with the dagger's taint.

 

See - it's so much more enjoyable when you are willing to change your ideas in response to new facts or arguments.

 

2) The first step change is first revealed to us when he is dicing in Fal Dara.

Yet, according to his pov, he first got lucky after picking up the dagger. Before Moiraine, before Caemlyn.

His POV. He is fallable. RJ likes the odd bit of misdirection. You fell for it.

 

 

It doesn't work.

It does.

 

It was the dagger.

It wasn't.

 

While the complete absence of any evidence to support any other conclusion...

there was loads of evidence presented, if you'd only open your mind to an idea other than your own

 

...does make for a compelling case, there really is only one reasonable answer,

We agree on that at least

 

and that is that it was the dagger

...being separated from him. Yes, yes, yes!

[Cillian]

The timing fits for the Dagger to have caused halting/suppression/scrambling of Mat's luck.

 

Only if you're ignoring what came before the Dagger/Severing.... or if you live in Opposite-World.

 

Mat's luck was higher in the period between Shadar Logoth and the complete Severing of the Dagger in the White Tower than it ever was before, and higher still after the Dagger was severed. How is that suppression?

 

Proof? Well I've gone over it before, but I'll try once more then I'm out.

 

Both instances involve dice for easy comparison.

 

The Dragon Reborn - Chapter 30:

"He remembered playing at dice back home, with a sharp eyed, skinny man who worked for a merchant come down from Baerlon to buy tabac. He remembered the strapping his father had given him, too, on learning Mat owed the man a silver mark and four pence."

 

So he lost heavily, a silver mark and four pence would be considered a lot of money to small-folk, at dice back in Emond's Field, no super-luck. (By the way, that's from the same paragraph where he thinks "The luck had come once he took the dagger from Shadar Logoth")

 

Move to Shienar during the Dagger-holding period (and before blowing the Horn, BTW).

The Great Hunt - Chpt 3.

"I seem to have luck with the dice. I can hardly touch them without winning."

 

His luck is clearly higher during his possession of the Dagger than it was before that.

So please explain (using logic ;)) how that equals the Dagger suppressing his luck.

 

 

Second - Mr Ares is right to look for coincidences in the times of events, I just think he has (just as Mat did) associated the wrong events.

 

Welllll, it does all come back to the Dagger, he wouldn't have needed to be healed/severed from it if he had never picked it up.

The Dagger is the seed.

 

My view is:

1) Moiraine partially heals Mat, Mat gets quite lucky

2) A bus-load of Aes Sedai heal Mat and separate him from the dagger, Mat becomes the luckiest man alive

 

Got to conclude his luck is something to do with what happened in the healing/separating

 

Pretty much what I think. The particular combination of being bonded to the Dagger and the Healings from it.