Mat's Luck and Channeling

[Cillian]

How is it that he had a second jump in luck after being healed of the dagger? it seems that that would definitely support that the dagger suppressed mats luck.

 

That doesn't make sense. Think for a second, "a second jump in luck after being healed".

 

In book 2, at the start when they are still in Fal Dara, Mat is dicing with Sheinarans and winning.... a lot.

 

Mat:

I seem to have luck with the dice. I can hardly touch them without winning.

 

This is while he has the Dagger, long before he is separated from it. So clearly the Dagger is not suppressing his luck.

 

I'm on the same side as Mr Ares.

[Durinax]

Mat:

 

Quote

I seem to have luck with the dice. I can hardly touch them without winning.

 

This is while he has the Dagger, long before he is separated from it. So clearly the Dagger is not suppressing his luck.

 

I'm on the same side as Mr Ares.

which book is this in? (chapter also plz)

[OptimusPrime]

Dont tell me people are converting now...

[Alghar Khan]

This is while he has the Dagger, long before he is separated from it. So clearly the Dagger is not suppressing his luck.

You gave a possible explanation. Suppression could work over time. He had not had it for long. Luck comes in waves, people aren't born ta'veren and Mat was lucky in EF.

[Mr Ares]

As I have already said, we don’t know that it made him luckier.

Except for him getting a luck boost right after he picked it up.

If you’re right (he really got a jump in luck from being healed from the Dagger), then the Dagger obviously suppressed his luck.

Not true. Him getting another luck boost after being Healed does not mean it was suppressing his luck by making him luckier. We have no reason at all to think it was being suppressed.

 

He was lucky before he was ta'veren. He is, after all, remembered as the lucky one, and he wasn't ta'veren for long before the start of the series. So we have no jump in luck corresponding to his becoming ta'veren.

That’s all your say so.

Actually, none of it is. Mat only becoming ta'veren shortly before the series began is from RJ, him being known as the lucky one indicates he has been for some time, and his own memories show him as always having a measure of luck. It's in the books. And his two jumps in luck he dates to SL and TV - picking up and being Healed from the dagger. Not becoming ta'veren.

 

We don't know that it remained constant.

Yes, we do.

It isn’t so just because you say it.

No, it is so because the books say it.

All the books say is that he was dying even before blowing the Horn. He has huge gaps in his memories. And he doesn’t know what caused his luck.

The books also say he diced with Hurin on the way to TV. And they do not indicate he was luckier than he had been in Shienar, or any other time after he picked up the dagger. So we do know his luck remained more or less constant, with no "Horn boost".

 

The dagger did not suppress his luck. Why do you insist on saying that when there is nothing to support it, and the fact the he got luckier right after he picked it up contradicts it?

I’ve already answered that several times.

No, you haven't, not well enough.

 

The dagger did not suppress his luck. Why do you insist on saying that when there is nothing to support it, and the fact the he got luckier right after he picked it up contradicts it?

How is it that he had a second jump in luck after being healed of the dagger? it seems that that would definitely support that the dagger suppressed mats luck.

You're asking the wrong question. The question you should be asking is, "how can it be suppressing his luck if he became luckier?"

 

also, did he really get lucky right after picking it up?

Yes. The quote has been provided several times, some in really big letters, so if you skim back a couple of pages it should jump out at you.

 

it seems to me that the first jump in luck was when moraine tried to seal the evil in Caemlyn and the second was in Fal Dara, followed once again by the major spike of luck when the link was severed

Your evidence to support this?

 

which book is this in? (chapter also plz)

The book was stated in the post you quoted, book 2. As for chapter, I believe it's chapter 3.

 

Suppression could work over time.

Except he doesn't mention getting any less lucky.

Luck comes in waves, people aren't born ta'veren and Mat was lucky in EF.

Yes, in EF, before he became ta'veren. So he was lucky before ta'veren.

[Alghar Khan]

If you’re right (he really got a jump in luck from being healed from the Dagger), then the Dagger obviously suppressed his luck.

Not true. Him getting another luck boost after being Healed does not mean it was suppressing his luck by making him luckier. We have no reason at all to think it was being suppressed.

We have no reason to think he would get a luck boost from being healed from the effects of the Dagger.

 

That’s all your say so.

Actually, none of it is. Mat only becoming ta'veren shortly before the series began is from RJ, him being known as the lucky one indicates he has been for some time, and his own memories show him as always having a measure of luck. It's in the books. And his two jumps in luck he dates to SL and TV - picking up and being Healed from the dagger. Not becoming ta'veren.

Even if that was true (the bold part), then how would that make it any more likely that picking up the Dagger was the one thing that made him luckier? By the way, he didn't "dates to SL and TV". He is grasping for anything and everything. That's what he's doing.

[Alghar Khan]

All the books say is that he was dying even before blowing the Horn. He has huge gaps in his memories. And he doesn’t know what caused his luck.

The books also say he diced with Hurin on the way to TV. And they do not indicate he was luckier than he had been in Shienar, or any other time after he picked up the dagger. So we do know his luck remained more or less constant, with no "Horn boost".

Did he comment on how it remained exactly the same? Hadn't he other things to worry about by then? If the Dagger suppressed his luck, while the Horn (or something else for that matter) increased it, then it might still have been working in his favor. Luck is supposed to come and go in waves, which certainly must make it extremely difficult to appraise the amount of luck you're experiencing. After being healed, he had lost a lot of memories, which makes a reconstruction of events difficult.

 

Suppression could work over time.

Except he doesn’t mention getting any less lucky.

See what I've already said.

 

Luck comes in waves, people aren’t born ta’veren and Mat was lucky in EF.

Yes, in EF, before he became ta'veren. So he was lucky before ta'veren.

Why do you insist that it was before he became ta'veren? He became ta'veren in  EF. Either way, it doesn't change anything.

[Mr Ares]

We have no reason to think he would get a luck boost from being healed from the effects of the Dagger.

Except his luck did get a boost after the Healing.

 

He is grasping for anything and everything that isn't the dagger. That's what he's doing.

Corrected for you.

 

Did he comment on how it remained exactly the same?

No changes were mentioned - it was within the limits he expected of his increased luck.

If the Dagger suppressed his luck

Which it didn't.

while the Horn (or something else for that matter) increased it

Which it didn't.

 

Why do you insist that it was before he became ta'veren?

Because it was. He has always been lucky, but ta'veren is new. So his luck has nothing to do with ta'veren.

[Alghar Khan]

We have no reason to think he would get a luck boost from being healed from the effects of the Dagger.

Except his luck did get a boost after the Healing.

Or the Dagger had suppressed his luck before.

 

Why do you insist that it was before he became ta'veren?

Because it was. He has always been lucky, but ta'veren is new. So his luck has nothing to do with ta'veren.

Either way (before or after becoming ta'veren), it doesn't change anything. Ta'veren can be lucky. Mat is lucky. Hawkwing was lucky. We don't know whether the Dagger influenced it in any way.

[Alghar Khan]

Did he comment on how it remained exactly the same?

No changes were mentioned - we don't know if it was within the limits of his increased luck exactly the same as before.

Corrected for you.

[Mr Ares]

We have no reason to think he would get a luck boost from being healed from the effects of the Dagger.

Except his luck did get a boost after the Healing.

Or the Dagger had suppressed his luck before.

Yes, it suppressed it when it gave him the first boost, by making him luckier than he was before.

 

Why do you insist that it was before he became ta'veren?

Because it was. He has always been lucky, but ta'veren is new. So his luck has nothing to do with ta'veren.

Either way (before or after becoming ta'veren), it doesn't change anything. Ta'veren can be lucky. Mat is lucky. Hawkwing was lucky. We don't know whether the Dagger influenced it in any way.

Except he got lucky right after he picked it up. That ta'veren can be lucky, and that Hawkwing was, are neither here nor there. Because we have no indications that the dagger was the source of his luck.

 

Did he comment on how it remained exactly the same?

No changes were mentioned - we don't know if it was within the limits of his increased luck exactly the same as before.

Corrected for you.

No, you didn't. We do know there were no changes. So the Horn didn't increase his luck.

[Alghar Khan]

Yes, it suppressed it when it gave him the first boost, by making him luckier than he was before.

We don't know that it gave him any boost.

 

Except he got lucky right after he picked it up. That ta'veren can be lucky, and that Hawkwing was, are neither here nor there. Because we have no indications that the dagger was the source of his luck.

Yeah, we don't know whether the dagger boosted or suppressed his already existing luck.

 

We do know there were no changes. So the Horn didn't increase his luck.

As you said earlier, we weren't given any details. Luck comes and goes in waves. We don't know any specifics.

[mobius]

I've decided to re-assert my claim that Mat's luck is tied to Rand's ability to channel.

Besides the examples I gave in post #208 of this thread I have come up with several more.

In the "Encyclopaedia-WOT", Mat's time line states that he first discovers his luck

while dicing with Shienaran guards. What happened just prior to that? Rand consummed an

entire pool of pure Saiden at the Eye of the World.

Much has been made of Mat's incredible luck after being healed in Tar Valon. The healing happened in TDR Chapter 18 "Healing". What occured prior to that? In TDR Chapter 9 "Wolf

Dreams" Rand learns BALEFIRE.

In L:NS the Black Aja kill men who are lucky because luckiness is a sign of the ability

to channel. Obviously Mat can't channel, but his thread is inextricably tied to Rand's,

as evidenced by Mat and Perrin now seeing (KOD) swirling colors and then Rand when they

think of him.

As for the dagger, I have read this series through over a dozen times since 1994 and I

can't think of one bit of luck Mat had right after he picked up the dagger. He and Rand did not dice their way from Whitebridge to Caemlyn. They used the skills Thom taught

them on Bayle's boat to pay the bills on that trip, sleeping under hedges and in barns. Mat did not play dice on Bayle's boat, he did not play dice after Moiraine first attempted to heal him in Caemlyn, he did not dice in the Ways, or in the Blight. As I pointed out earlier he first discovered his luck after Rand channeled at the Eye of the World.

[Mr Ares]

Yes, it suppressed it when it gave him the first boost, by making him luckier than he was before.

We don't know that it gave him any boost.

Except for him getting a boost right after he picks it up.

 

Except he got lucky right after he picked it up. That ta'veren can be lucky, and that Hawkwing was, are neither here nor there. Because we have no indications that the dagger was the source of his luck.

Yeah, we don't know whether the dagger boosted or suppressed his already existing luck.

We know it wasn't suppressed, nothing at all suports that, and he got a boost right after picked it up.

 

We do know there were no changes. So the Horn didn't increase his luck.

As you said earlier, we weren't given any details. Luck comes and goes in waves. We don't know any specifics.

Except for him not getting any luckier. We know that there were times, with Hurin and in Shienar, when six to eight tosses in a row won for him. That's his own thought on the matter. Six to eight in a row. Before and after the Horn.

 

I've decided to re-assert my claim that Mat's luck is tied to Rand's ability to channel. Besides the examples I gave in post #208 of this thread I have come up with several more.

Of course. Considering the number of times Rand channels, it's not surprising that some time after a couple of things he does with the Power, Mat is lucky. But correlation does not equal causation, and you have yet to show even a high degree of correlation. Rand has Channeled an awful lot of times, and how often do you have a corresponding effect on Mat's luck?

In the "Encyclopaedia-WOT", Mat's time line states that he first discovers his luck while dicing with Shienaran guards.

Not according to Mat, though. According to him it started after Shadar Logoth. He is quite specific on that point.

Much has been made of Mat's incredible luck after being healed in Tar Valon. The healing happened in TDR Chapter 18 "Healing". What occured prior to that? In TDR Chapter 9 "Wolf Dreams" Rand learns BALEFIRE.

Indeed. 19 days prior. With a further three before the luck manifests. 22 dyas after Rand uses balefire, with no reason at all why the one should affect the other, Mat is luckier than he ever has been before.

In L:NS the Black Aja kill men who are lucky because luckiness is a sign of the ability to channel. Obviously Mat can't channel, but his thread is inextricably tied to Rand's, as evidenced by Mat and Perrin now seeing (KOD) swirling colors and then Rand when they think of him.

The luck is a sign of unconcious Channeling - they are using the Power without knowing. As Rand was nowhere near Mat for some of these instances, and you admit Mat cannot Channel, it thus cannot be Channeling that is causing the luck, therefore New Spring works against you, not for you.

As for the dagger, I have read this series through over a dozen times since 1994 and I can't think of one bit of luck Mat had right after he picked up the dagger.

I can't think of a single mat pov at that point in the story, either. It might have happened off screen. And while Mat won more often than he lost, he wasn't necessarily willing to rely on it. He himself dates it to that point, after SL. It is explicitly stated.

As I pointed out earlier he first discovered his luck after Rand channeled at the Eye of the World.

And you were wrong to do so, as Mat himself dates the discovery to SL, specifically saying that is when he got lucky.

[dholm]

Mobius, I seriously hope you're kidding.

[Alghar Khan]

We don't know that it gave him any boost.

Except for him getting a boost right after he picks it up.

Right after? Really? And two things can happen simultaneosly without being linked.

 

We know it wasn't suppressed, nothing at all suports that, and he got a boost right after picked it up.

We do not know that it wasn't suppressed because of the Dagger's taint. You saying that it is so wouldn't prove anything. And you keep repeating the same "right after" ...

 

Except for him not getting any luckier.

We don't know any details. As I've explained, the Dagger could have suppressed/scrambled his luck.

 

Not according to Mat, though. According to him it started after Shadar Logoth. He is quite specific on that point.

And you were wrong to do so, as Mat himself dates the discovery to SL, specifically saying that is when he got lucky.

There was nothing specific about it. First of all because he can't be specific. He got holes in his memory, remember? Secondly, he said that something happened after SL, not how shortly after or much of anything else. He also blames the Aes Sedai for giving luck to him, but you don't believe that (do you?).

[mobius]

Mobius, I seriously hope you're kidding.

Throughout these books it has been noted that Rand as the "Dragon Reborn" affects

chance. Why would I not seriously consider Rand's ability to affect chance with regard

to Mat? He now affects Mat in other ways ,for example the "swirling colors" when Mat thinks of Rand in KOD.

I've decided to re-assert my claim that Mat's luck is tied to Rand's ability to channel. Besides the examples I gave in post #208 of this thread I have come up with several more.

Of course. Considering the number of times Rand channels, it's not surprising that some time after a couple of things he does with the Power, Mat is lucky. But correlation does not equal causation, and you have yet to show even a high degree of correlation. Rand has Channeled an awful lot of times, and how often do you have a corresponding effect on Mat's luck?

You are right in that I have given only one example(in my previous post #208 of this thread)of Mat's fantastic luck disappearing when Rand is kidnapped and shielded from the source. That is why I stated in that same post it would be interesting to see what happened to Mat's luck if Rand were to be collared as damane in a future book.

In the "Encyclopaedia-WOT", Mat's time line states that he first discovers his luck while dicing with Shienaran guards.

Not according to Mat, though. According to him it started after Shadar Logoth. He is quite specific on that point.

If you have a book, chapter and page for this I would like to see it for myself if only to get the context of this statement by Mat.

Much has been made of Mat's incredible luck after being healed in Tar Valon. The healing happened in TDR Chapter 18 "Healing". What occured prior to that? In TDR Chapter 9 "Wolf Dreams" Rand learns BALEFIRE.

Indeed. 19 days prior. With a further three before the luck manifests. 22 dyas after Rand uses balefire, with no reason at all why the one should affect the other, Mat is luckier than he ever has been before.

Mat is unconcious and near death (thanks to his "lucky dagger") during these 19 days and quite unable to test his luck at all until healed.

In L:NS the Black Aja kill men who are lucky because luckiness is a sign of the ability to channel. Obviously Mat can't channel, but his thread is inextricably tied to Rand's, as evidenced by Mat and Perrin now seeing (KOD) swirling colors and then Rand when they think of him.

The luck is a sign of unconcious Channeling - they are using the Power without knowing. As Rand was nowhere near Mat for some of these instances, and you admit Mat cannot Channel, it thus cannot be Channeling that is causing the luck, therefore New Spring works against you, not for you.

First, proximity to Rand is irrelevant, again I will cite the "swirling colors" effect Rand has upon Mat from a very great distance. Second, you are right, luckiness is attributed to those who are unconcious of their channeling. However, Rand is the "Dragon Reborn" and I don't believe it is that far fetched for Mat (a fellow taveren) to have acquired a resonance of Rand's luck.

Rand has saved Mat's life three times by my count, twice with balefire, there is a very powerful connection between the two friends.

As for the dagger, I have read this series through over a dozen times since 1994 and I can't think of one bit of luck Mat had right after he picked up the dagger.

I can't think of a single mat pov at that point in the story, either. It might have happened off screen. And while Mat won more often than he lost, he wasn't necessarily willing to rely on it. He himself dates it to that point, after SL. It is explicitly stated.

Again, where is this stated.

As I pointed out earlier he first discovered his luck after Rand channeled at the Eye of the World.

And you were wrong to do so, as Mat himself dates the discovery to SL, specifically saying that is when he got lucky.

I believe it is a bit over the top to suggest it was wrong to cite the "Encyclopaedia-WOT" as an authoritative source for this discussion.

Concerning the dagger, I believe it is simply a device the author used to create ,in Fain, an independant agent for evil ouside the DO's control. Why is the subject for another thread.

[Mr Ares]

Right after? Really? And two things can happen simultaneosly without being linked.

He dates the luck to picking up his dagger. And you don't even have correlation, let alone causation, for any of your crackpot theories.

 

We know it wasn't suppressed, nothing at all suports that, and he got a boost right after picked it up.

We do not know that it wasn't suppressed because of the Dagger's taint.

We do. He got luckier. His luck was never suppressed. How about you find some evidence to support that, rather than continually repeating unsupported rubbish.

 

Except for him not getting any luckier.

We don't know any details.

Yes, we do. We know he didn't get any luckier, or any less lucky. The two jumps in his luck, are when he gets the dagger, and when he is Healed.

 

There was nothing specific about it.

Yes, there was. He said it started after Shadar Logoth.

First of all because he can't be specific.

He can be and was.

Secondly, he said that something happened after SL, not how shortly after or much of anything else.

It's pretty clear that it was shortly after SL, or he would have dated it to some other time. He doesn't want it to be the dagger, remember.

He also blames the Aes Sedai for giving luck to him, but you don't believe that (do you?).

I don't believe it because Mat doesn't. He thinks it might be the AS and notes that anything is better than it being the dagger. SDo he is only blaming them so he doesn't have to accept it was the dagger.

 

Throughout these books it has been noted that Rand as the "Dragon Reborn" affects chance.

No, Rand as ta'veren affects chance.

Why would I not seriously consider Rand's ability to affect chance with regard to Mat?

Because it's crackpot.

He now affects Mat in other ways ,for example the "swirling colors" when Mat thinks of Rand in KOD.

He affects Perrin in the same way. So why is Perrin not also affected by Rand's channeling?

 

That is why I stated in that same post it would be interesting to see what happened to Mat's luck if Rand were to be collared as damane in a future book.

Nothing would happen.

If you have a book, chapter and page for this I would like to see it for myself if only to get the context of this statement by Mat.

TDR. Chapter 30, IIRC. The quote has been provided in the thread many times.

 

Mat is unconcious and near death (thanks to his "lucky dagger") during these 19 days and quite unable to test his luck at all until healed.

Mat was still concious on the road to Tar Valon, and diced with Hurin on the road. Part of that time would have been after Rand learns balefire. So his luck remained unchanged when, according to your theory, it shouldn't.

 

First, proximity to Rand is irrelevant, again I will cite the "swirling colors" effect Rand has upon Mat from a very great distance.

All three ta'veren have it upon one another, so using something common to all three as evidence of soemthing unique to Mat is dubious.

Second, you are right, luckiness is attributed to those who are unconcious of their channeling. However, Rand is the "Dragon Reborn" and I don't believe it is that far fetched for Mat (a fellow taveren) to have acquired a resonance of Rand's luck.

The luck is the channeling, in these cases. They are doing things with the Power. So Rand is doing things to Mat with the Power, with neither of them realising. Your resonance argument makes no sense.

 

Again, where is this stated.

Again, read the thread.

 

I believe it is a bit over the top to suggest it was wrong to cite the "Encyclopaedia-WOT" as an authoritative source for this discussion.

When quotes to the contrary have been repeatedly cited, it is. It shows you are refusing to read the argument.

Concerning the dagger, I believe it is simply a device the author used to create ,in Fain, an independant agent for evil ouside the DO's control.

He had that even before the dagger. After all, the dagger didn't create Fain.

[The Asha man]

Well i dont know if somebody said this already because i skipped most of the topic from like page 2 to 24 but if mat's luck was amazing the night he was healed then maybe the dagger was suppresing his luck, say it was still really good but the dagger suppressed it somehow?

[Alghar Khan]

And you don't even have correlation, let alone causation, for any of your crackpot theories.

No, we do not have correlation, let alone causation, for any crackpot theory that has ever been presented by anyone. That includes you. We do not know what caused his luck. We do not know if anything has boosted or suppressed it. We do not know whether the Dagger has boosted or suppressed his luck at any given time.

 

We do not know that it wasn't suppressed because of the Dagger's taint.

We do. He got luckier. His luck was never suppressed. How about you find some evidence to support that, rather than continually repeating unsupported rubbish.

I said that "we do not know that", and you want me to "support that"? You've got to be kidding.

 

We know he didn't get any luckier, or any less lucky. The two jumps in his luck, are when he gets the dagger, and when he is Healed.

Please give the quotes that you think would make it clear that he didn't get any luckier. It would have been pretty amazing, considering that: [1] we don't know if the Dagger suppressed his luck; [2] luck comes and goes in waves; [3] we haven't got every moment of Mat's covered (not even he has that, since he's deadly ill); and [4] how do you even estimate luck accurately(?).

 

It's pretty clear that it was shortly after SL, or he would have dated it to some other time.

How have you come up with that idea? Nothing yet published makes it "pretty clear". Please give the quote that you think would make it so.

 

 

[mobius]

 

 

Throughout these books it has been noted that Rand as the "Dragon Reborn" affects chance.

No, Rand as ta'veren affects chance.

On Rand's journey from EF to the EotW he is taveren, not the Dragon Reborn, and the mass marriages etc. did not occur as they did on his journey in TDR.He affected only his own luck, for example choosing the right color yarn in Caemlyn prior to his falling into the Royal Compound and meeting the Queen.

Why would I not seriously consider Rand's ability to affect chance with regard to Mat?

Because it's crackpot.

Let me try another tack that might be more persuasive. Because the seals that bind the DO are weakening he is more and more able to affect the world. One of the early manifestations of this ability were "bubbles of evil".As we know, elements of the DO's nature traveled along threads in the pattern to erupt at some point along that thread.They first appeared (in print) along the threads of our three taveren in TSR.(Unless you count the gust of wind in TGH when Rand and Lan are practicing with swords,and only the strongest taveren is singled out). Strong seals = no "bubbles of evil". The "Dragon Reborn", Rand is counterpoint to the DO. The "Wheel" wove him back into the pattern in anticipation of the seals weakening. Why is it "crackpot" to think that part of Rand's nature "luckiness" emanates from him and then travels along the thread most tightly bound to him,to Mat's. Rand shielded from the source= average luck for Mat.   

He now affects Mat in other ways ,for example the "swirling colors" when Mat thinks of Rand in KOD.

He affects Perrin in the same way. So why is Perrin not also affected by Rand's channeling?

Mat's thread is much more tightly bound to Rand's than Perrin's. Perrin was able to escape Rand's pull and go to defend EF. He was also able to put the rescue of his wife, Faile, ahead of all other considerations.Mat, on the other hand, was unable to escape Rand's pull when he tried to do so during Rand's lifting of the seige at Cairhien.He found himself ever thicker in battle. Also, Rand's use of balefire, which is taboo because of it's thread destroying effects, to paradoxically preserve Mat's thread not just once but twice, shows just how close these two are in comparison to Perrin and Rand. Mat only leaves Rand's company when asked to do so by Rand to fetch Elayne back to Caemlyn(This answers some of your following questions as well so I'll skip them.)

 

That is why I stated in that same post it would be interesting to see what happened to Mat's luck if Rand were to be collared as damane in a future book.

Nothing would happen.

Forgive me, but I'll just wait and see.

If you have a book, chapter and page for this I would like to see it for myself if only to get the context of this statement by Mat.

TDR. Chapter 30, IIRC. The quote has been provided in the thread many times.

Thank-you for tracking that down.I see it now on pg#345 of the paperback edition. Mat is having a conversation with himself. After saying it's the dagger, in the next paragraph he says "But I'm free of the bloody dagger".Two paragraphs after that he speculates "Maybe it was something the Aes Sedai did. Something they did Healing me. By accident maybe. That could be it. Better than the other. Those bloody Aes Sedai must have done it to me." Two paragraphs after that arguement in his head, we read this "WHERE-EVER his luck tonight had come from, he did not mean to lose it all to a footpad." He has no clear idea as to where his fantasic luck came from that night. The dagger was only one of several possibilities to his mind.

 

Mat is unconcious and near death (thanks to his "lucky dagger") during these 19 days and quite unable to test his luck at all until healed.

Mat was still concious on the road to Tar Valon, and diced with Hurin on the road. Part of that time would have been after Rand learns balefire. So his luck remained unchanged when, according to your theory, it shouldn't.

I believe you are citing a paragraph in Chapter 10 of TDR where Hurin feels more at ease with Mat than with the women who could channel in the party. This paragraph does not mention when they stopped gambling. How do you know at what point or why they did stop gambling? This is neither Mat's nor Hurin's pov.

 

Concerning the dagger, I believe it is simply a device the author used to create ,in Fain, an independant agent for evil ouside the DO's control.

He had that even before the dagger. After all, the dagger didn't create Fain.

Here you are just flat out wrong. Please re-read chapter 47 of EotW. The DO compelled Fain to follow all three taveren into Shadar Logoth. Quote "It was evil against evil in the ruins of Shadar Logoth," Moraine continued, "foul fighting vile. When Fain spoke of it, his teeth chattered and he whimpered. Many Trollocs were slain, consumed by Mashadar and other things, including the Trolloc that held Fain's leash. He fled the city as if it were the Pit of Doom, at Shayol Ghul." Fain was untouched by the effects of Shadar Logoth until he came to posess the dagger. The dagger, once stolen from Mat did create the independence from the DO that Fain so desired, as evidenced by Fain's party's flight from Fal Dara.Going toward toward Shayol Ghul, then away, as the evil from the dagger exerts more and more power in Fain ,in contradiction to the desires of the DO.

[Terrick]

I may have gotten the entirely wrong impression, and 23 pages is a lot to read through, so I may have missed something, but I figured his luck entirely improved when he either a) started getting memories from his past incarnations, or b) went back for seconds of the Finns.  Again, I'm rusty, so don't shoot me please!  It's been a while, and I may be completely off track.

 

Just a thought!

[dholm]

The greatest increase in his luck happened before he went into the first doorframe ter'angreal in Tear, so no.

 

He has a flash of memory where he was commanding a battle about the same time, but most people attribute it to the Old Blood (mostly because we don't have any other explanation). Otherwise, his other memories only come after the Eelfinn doorway in Rhuidean.

[Phariah]

Concerning the dagger, I believe it is simply a device the author used to create ,in Fain, an independant agent for evil ouside the DO's control.

He had that even before the dagger. After all, the dagger didn't create Fain.

Here you are just flat out wrong. Please re-read chapter 47 of EotW. The DO compelled Fain to follow all three taveren into Shadar Logoth. Quote "It was evil against evil in the ruins of Shadar Logoth," Moraine continued, "foul fighting vile. When Fain spoke of it, his teeth chattered and he whimpered. Many Trollocs were slain, consumed by Mashadar and other things, including the Trolloc that held Fain's leash. He fled the city as if it were the Pit of Doom, at Shayol Ghul." Fain was untouched by the effects of Shadar Logoth until he came to posess the dagger. The dagger, once stolen from Mat did create the independence from the DO that Fain so desired, as evidenced by Fain's party's flight from Fal Dara.Going toward toward Shayol Ghul, then away, as the evil from the dagger exerts more and more power in Fain ,in contradiction to the desires of the DO.

 

um...i know Mr.Ares can defend himself but this statement is way wrong and couldn't let it pass..

Fain was possessed by Mordeth at SL when his handlers were killed and he escaped, he traveld and each time he was seen he was a split personality, Mordeth is already at work fighting for control over Fain

tEotW  chp 26 pg 390 " one minute whining and begging and the next making demands like a king "

than in Fal Dara chp 46 page 704-705 Fain goes from a simpering, whining beggar to a confident ,smooth talking nobleman that runs the "i know how to defeat the shadow " line that Mordeth used when he corrupted SL in the first place

same chapter  pg 706 "i am afraid he is more than a peddler, lord Agelmar," Moiraine said " less than human, worse than vile, more dangerous than u can imagine"

than in tGH chp 3 page 43 " Mordeth knows more than all of you, Mordeth knows"

and he hasn't touched the dagger yet so for u to say he was untouched by events at SL and say the dagger created Mordeth is quite false

[Mr Ares]

if mat's luck was amazing the night he was healed then maybe the dagger was suppresing his luck, say it was still really good but the dagger suppressed it somehow?

But he got luckier after picking it up. So it suppressed his luck but still made him luckier?

 

No, we do not have correlation

Yes, we do. Two jumps in his luck, both relating to events with the dagger.

That includes you.

My theories are not crackpot. They have evidence to support them. You remember evidence, it's that stuff you ignore.

We do not know if anything has boosted or suppressed it.

We know that on two occasions, both relating to his dagger, his luck increases from what it was before.

 

I said that "we do not know that", and you want me to "support that"?

Yes, I would like some evidence to support us not knowing that, when the evidence we have contradicts it. His luck being suppressed at any point after picking up the dagger contradicts him saying that's when his luck started.

 

Please give the quotes that you think would make it clear that he didn't get any luckier.

Read the thread, and the book. TDR makes it very clear.

[1] we don't know if the Dagger suppressed his luck

Although the complete lack of any evidence to support it, it not being so much as hinted at by the books, and him getting luckier after picking up the dagger does provide a pretty good case for you talking crap on this point. His luck was not suppressed.

[2] luck comes and goes in waves

But the heights of the crests of those waves remain consistent between him picking up the dagger and his Healing, and are higher afterwards.

[3] we haven't got every moment of Mat's covered

We don't need it. His thoughts are clear on the matter. Six to eight tosses in a row in his favour when his luck is in, in Shienar and on the road to TV. Consistent. Not suprtessed, not varying, not increasing, the same.

[4] how do you even estimate luck accurately(?).

How often things go in your favour. As I said, six to eight tosses in a row in his favour when his luck is in. That's what he can expect.

 

How have you come up with that idea?

Given he doesn't want it to be the dagger, if there was some other significant event, or the ability to lose it in his lost memories - he didn't know when it started - would make more sense. But he relates the timing to the dagger despite the holes and despite the fact he doesn't want it to be the dagger.

Nothing yet published makes it "pretty clear".

The books do.

Please give the quote that you think would make it so.

Read the relevant chapter of TDR.

 

On Rand's journey from EF to the EotW he is taveren, not the Dragon Reborn

Wrong, he is Dragon Reborn from the moment he is born.

and the mass marriages etc. did not occur as they did on his journey in TDR.

Irrelevant.

He affected only his own luck

So he was ta'veren at the time. Exactly.

 

Why is it "crackpot" to think that part of Rand's nature "luckiness" emanates from him and then travels along the thread most tightly bound to him,to Mat's.

Well, there's nothing to support it, for one thing, Mat's thread is not most tightly bound to his own, why would Rand be lucky, but this drifts along and only ever affects Mat? It makes no sense.

Rand shielded from the source= average luck for Mat.

You have yet to demonstrate that. How does the timeline match up for Mat's run of bad luck and Rand's shielding in LoC? Not chapter numbers, timeline. Same day? Different days? If same day, which happens first? When does Mat's run of bad luck begon in relation to Rand's being shielded? You currently have nothing to support your theory.

 

Mat's thread is much more tightly bound to Rand's than Perrin's.

No, it isn't.

Perrin was able to escape Rand's pull and go to defend EF.

Perrin's destiny required him elsewhere, but how closely bound threads are need not be reflected in how close they are in physical proximity all the time.

Also, Rand's use of balefire, which is taboo because of it's thread destroying effects, to paradoxically preserve Mat's thread not just once but twice, shows just how close these two are in comparison to Perrin and Rand.

No, it doesn't, it shows Rand has been in a convenient position to save Mat's life. Physical proximity, not closeness of threads. Also, this has yet to happen at this point in the story, therefore none of this stands as evidence of them being so closely bound at this point. In TDR all three boys are separated, but Mat leaves Rand's company long before Perrin does. And Perrin is specifically following Rand, while Mat is aiming to help the girls. So in TDR, when Mat thinks of his luck, when he has his super-luck night, by your reasoning Perrin and Rand should be most closely bound, and therefore it is Perrin that should be experinecing the luck as a side-effect, not Mat.

 

After saying it's the dagger

Questioning whether it was the dagger - he never says it was. He also specifically says that his luck started after Shadar Logoth.

Two paragraphs after that he speculates "Maybe it was something the Aes Sedai did. Something they did Healing me. By accident maybe. That could be it. Better than the other. Those bloody Aes Sedai must have done it to me."

He is grasping at straws, desperate for it to be anything but the dagger.

He has no clear idea as to where his fantasic luck came from that night.

He doesn't. We do. It started after SL, and increased after the Healing, both events relating to the dagger. No correlation with anything else, that we have seen. We are given the answer of the dagger about as clearly as we can be, without being whacked over the head with it.

The dagger was only one of several possibilities to his mind.

Irrelevant. Some of those possibilities can be dismissed because the timing doesn't work.

 

I believe you are citing a paragraph in Chapter 10 of TDR

You're wrong, I'm citing later in the book. Chapter 30, in fact, where he thinks to himself that there were times with Hurin when six to eight tosses in a row won for him. He also mentions his luck in Shienar, when six to eight tosses in a row won for him. So it remained consistent, with Rand's learning of balefire not having any discernable effect (and there is no reason why it should. So he was till gambling on the road to TV, Rand learned balefire during that period, there is no increase in luck.

 

Here you are just flat out wrong.

No, I'm not. It's not often I'll have cause to say this, but Phariah is right. He is possessed by Mordeth in SL.

"It was evil against evil in the ruins of Shadar Logoth," Moraine continued, "foul fighting vile. When Fain spoke of it, his teeth chattered and he whimpered. Many Trollocs were slain, consumed by Mashadar and other things, including the Trolloc that held Fain's leash. He fled the city as if it were the Pit of Doom, at Shayol Ghul."

A quote that does nothing to support your case.

Going toward toward Shayol Ghul, then away, as the evil from the dagger exerts more and more power in Fain ,in contradiction to the desires of the DO.

More precisely, the variations in their course were due to Fain's power struggle with the Fade. That ended with the Eyeless serving time as a doorstop.

 

I figured his luck entirely improved when he either a) started getting memories from his past incarnations, or b) went back for seconds of the Finns.

Mat himself says it started after SL.