Theory on asmos murder

[Guest cwestervelt]

Do you really believe the Forsaken intended to work together?  That they actually planned to come to Sammael's help?  Already then, we knew enough about them that they only aided each other if one had something to provide leverage.  Even later in the books, under orders to prevent the Cleansing, they still they couldn't manage to work together.

 

Where is the evidence that it was anything other than a desire to capture Rand?  Simply put, it was Lanfear's plan.  We already know what her true plans for Rand were.  She wasn't yet looking to destroy Rand for spurning her.  That in itself should be enough reason to question the validity of the Illian trap.  Or do you think she figured that she could keep the other three from killing Rand?  Maybe sneak him off while the other three are squabbling about who gets to control him?  Sammael at the very least would be trying to kill him.  Rahvin and Graendal would be crazy to attempt to capture rather than kill Rand.  Capturing him would just put even more power in Lanfear's hands.  Sorry, but I would consider cold and calculated double cross to be much more likely.

 

The quote is irrelevant?  RJ, directly addressing the Forsaken's inability to work together and it is irrelevant?  Why?  Because it goes against your theory?  Maybe you need to think a little about why Graendal was helping Sammael in Lord of Chaos.

 

Sammael was dumb to trust Lanfear and the whole Lanfear/Graendal/Rahvin coalition.  The fact that Graendal later got suckered by Sammael does not make her look very good.  She had nothing up her sleave yet attempted to make a play against Sammael.  Well, he was holding all the Aces and called her bluff.  Needless to say, she lost big.  The result is that she feared what Sammael knew and might have done.  She was afraid that Sammael really had reached a deal with Rand.  At that point, it became a matter of self preservation on Graendal's part.  That gave Sammael the leverage he needed to make her do whatever he said.  Without that leverage, she wouldn't have been helping him.

 

[Darkness Incarnated]

I may be arguing about the plan, but I actually don't think they would have carried it through.

 

My memory is sketchy, so I don't remember the exacts terms of the plan, but I doubt Sammael would have been convinced to capture Rand. He hated him too much for that (especially since I don't see any special gain for him--other than Rand removed, of course).

 

I would say Rahvin would have wanted to kill Rand as well, but it all would have depended on who was holding the link (if they had ever come to agree on that). If it had been Lanfear, then she would have captured him, even killed Sammael if he tried to interfere. Rahvin or Graendal, they would have struck to kill, unless maybe Graendal found Rand 'beautiful' enough to add to her collection  ;)

 

Rahvin clearly had a few plans Bs to the side, in case Lanfear's didn't work.  And I would be damned if Graendal didn't have something else in mind as well. I am beginning to think Lanfear was intent on removing--I don't know how--a few of her fellow Chosen. What could capturing Rand possibly gain her? She could have managed that on her own, despite what she told the others.

[Child of Lir]

Remember that Lanfear made a big mistake; she offered Rand the opportunity to overthrow the DO with her help, and Asmodean was witness to this. Should Asmodean ever have been given the opportunity to inform other Forsaken of this, either directly or via Aiel Darkfriends (or some other means), then her life would have been forfeit, and rightly so (from the DO's point of view). Therefore, it is in her interest to appear to plot with the other three; she must appear a loyal servant of the DO, whatever her secret desires or plans for Rand. Of course, it would not suit her to let any of the others get their hands on him for she considered him hers, always.

[Ealdur Tinuviel]

Although I do think that Graendal is the most likely candidate for Asmodean's killer, I can't help but wonder why Rahvin would be so incredibly trusting of Graendal or any other female forsaken to allow them to meet him on his home turf.

 

He had wards to warn him if a male channeled in the city, and perhaps because of Aes Sedai channelers he did not create a similar ward for females. But the fact that he can't sense when a woman channels--coupled with the inability to create a ward to alert him if females channeled due to the likelihood of false alarms--should make him doubly suspicious of Graendal or Lanfear's schemes.

 

Not only are they females, but they are female Forsaken, and anyone of the Forsaken who has been foolish enough to place too much trust in one of the others in the past has ended up dying.

 

The only information we have on Forsaken working together is that on Demandred, Mesaana, and Semirhage, and that has only been an uneasy alliance, an agreement that they would not turn on each other until the others were dead.

[Child of Lir]

Although I do think that Graendal is the most likely candidate for Asmodean's killer, I can't help but wonder why Rahvin would be so incredibly trusting of Graendal or any other female forsaken to allow them to meet him on his home turf.

 

Indeed. There is no evidence that Graendal went to Caemlyn, nor any evidence of how she would know that Asmodean was there. There is of course room for plenty of conjecture, and assumptions can be made, but since RJ said all the evidence we need is in the first five books, then we need to look for facts. And, with his claim that the answer is "intuitively obvious" to the casual reader, any suspect requiring a convulted theory is logically ruled out; the answer is a gut reaction, based on evidence that is jumping up and down and waving at us, shouting "look at me". It doesn't require in-depth analysis.

[Darkness Incarnated]

Child of Lir, your point about why Lanfear would dab her fingers in that plot makes some sense. She could always get rid of Asmodean--I think she intended to in the end--but an immediate back-up plan wouldn't have hurt, I guess.

[Cybertrolloc]

There is of course room for plenty of conjecture, and assumptions can be made, but since RJ said all the evidence we need is in the first five books, then we need to look for facts. And, with his claim that the answer is "intuitively obvious" to the casual reader, any suspect requiring a convulted theory is logically ruled out; the answer is a gut reaction, based on evidence that is jumping up and down and waving at us, shouting "look at me". It doesn't require in-depth analysis.

And if RJ should happen to have modified those statements in the last dozen years? (Or at least you could be so kind as to point out where the "look at me" evidence is to be found.)

[Ealdur Tinuviel]

RJ has always viewed it as "intuitively obvious" because he wrote the books, so whenever he looks over what anything that is a hint, it sticks out like a sore thumb.

 

But to us, it's not quite that simple. We see a lot of things thatcould be hints, and don't know whether or not they are really evidence.

 

I think we should all agree that Asmodean had to have been killed by accident, whoever the killer was. Otherwise, how did the killer anticipate what door Asmodean was going to open? Answer: They couldn't have.

 

And it wasn't on orders from the DO, as well, so that is even more conclusively pointing to accidental meeting.

 

And I've said it before, and I'll say it again: The DO is not omniscient. My guess is that his vision is limited both by the proximity of the event to Shayol Ghul and how much darkfriends tell him.

 

Yet he knew someone had killed Asmodean, and it was nowhere near Caemlyn, and the body had disappeared. So who could have told him, if not the killer?

 

And he knows by the time he meets Demandred. So who visited Shayol Ghul before Demandred did? None other than Graendal.

[Guest cwestervelt]

When I read it, one name immediately came to mind.  As such, when I heard Jordan claimed it should be intuitively obvious, I had no problems accepting that.  Who did it may not have be logical based on the information provided, but it was certainly intuitive.

[Ealdur Tinuviel]

Honestly, my immediate guess was Lanfear. It just seemed fitting that he would be thinking of her right before she killed him--almost foreshadowing.

 

I think most people take "intuitive" to mean "logical," though it really isn't. Perhaps RJ might have meant it as "logical," since he has said there were "clues." Most of what I see that appears to be a clue points to Graendal. And if it were Lanfear, the only clue that she could have done it is that she is still alive.

[Guest cwestervelt]

The very first thought to cross through my mind after reading Asmodean's murder was, "so she is alive."  And I was not thinking of Lanfear.  Almost 14 years later and I can still remember that particular thought word for word.

[lou]

the plan was pretty much irrelevant by the fact that rand went to caemlyn and not illian, so when the four were going to link is also irrelevant. graendal may have gone to caemlyn to meet rhavin at the appointed time, they had met at the palace before, so why not this time? i dont understand why this is such a difficult concept.

 

this is not sarcasm or patronising, i truly want to know.

[Guest cwestervelt]

The could not meet in Caemlyn for one simple reason.  At that first meeting Rahvin made it perfectly clear the others were not welcome to come back.  Why do you think all the remaining meetings took place in Tel'aran'rhiod?  It wasn't to allow Moghedien and Nynaeve the chance to eavesdrop on them.

[Child of Lir]

And if RJ should happen to have modified those statements in the last dozen years? (Or at least you could be so kind as to point out where the "look at me" evidence is to be found.)

 

To the best of my knowledge RJ has not reneged on that statement.

 

As for the evidence being of the "look at me" type, it has to be like that to make the answer obvious to a "casual reader" (RJ's words). Such evidence would include a way of the murderer knowing that Asmodean was in Caemlyn; a way of finding him easily once there; a reason to kill him so strong that the murderer would risk their own life in going to Caemlyn at that most dangerous of times; a reason for killing him there and then rather than at any other time; a person that Asmodean is terrified of; and a person that Asmodean knows is going to kill him on sight.

[Darkness Incarnated]

Lou, the plan is relevant. As far as I can understand, some Graendal supporters maintain that she went to Caemlyn expressly to meet Rahvin, in which meeting they were supposed to link--Lanfear included--and Travel to Illian--according to the plan in question. Had it been compromised before that fateful day, then there would have been no tangible reason for Graendal to be in Caemlyn. In this context, the plan is vital to explain why she was there, otherwise it would have to be the other explanation, that she was there for her own reasons. The plan was obviously compromised, but only at the last minute, on the very day it was supposed to be put into effect. So, in theory, Graendal still had a valid reason to go to Caemlyn, seeing she was not aware of the events in Cairhiern (still in this context).

Lol, I am actually arguing for Graendal's case! Now I have seen it all.

[Luckers]

RJ has always viewed it as "intuitively obvious" because he wrote the books, so whenever he looks over what anything that is a hint, it sticks out like a sore thumb.

 

But to us, it's not quite that simple. We see a lot of things thatcould be hints, and don't know whether or not they are really evidence.

 

Actually, purerly in terms of the obvious answer there is only Graendal. At that stage the Forsaken we knew were Ishamael, Lanfear, Graendal, Rhavin, Moghedian, Sammael and Be'lal.

 

Ishamael and Be'lal were dead. Sammael was waiting to be attacked, Rhavin was dead, Lanfear was trapped in Finnland and Graendal... was waiting to link with Rhavin and Lanfear in order to react to an attack on Sammael--and not at her palace since at that time none of the Forsaken knew where she was.

 

Its not the be all and end all of arguments, but as far as obviousness goes....

[callandor]

well, luckers who would you say did it if it wasn't graendal, like if an h-bomb blew the sweet guacomole outta her.

[Darkness Incarnated]

Well, the assumption that Graendal went to Caemlyn specifically to link in a way excludes her knowing the events in Cairhiern, because without Lanfear the plan is kaput. As I said somewhere else, when Rand gets into the palace Graendal is nowhere to be seen, when she should have been there--according to the plan--with Rahvin, waiting for Lanfear's signal. Anyone cares to clarify that bit? Also, to those with the book, could you tell me whether it's specific about the time Rand attacked Rahvin? i.e. before/close to/after midday, for instance?

 

If, of course, a Forsaken did it, Luckers...

 

[Ealdur Tinuviel]

I'm just going to throw this out there...

 

Perhaps, as a contingency plan, Rahvin designed weaves to notify the other members of the cabal if his wards went off, since he was also highly visible among the Forsaken and might have reasoned that had anything gone wrong, Graendal or Lanfear could back him up. Of course, things went awry when Lanfear died, and Graendal wasn't about to get in on the action, so she bided her time, then arrived to look and see what had gone on.

 

This still wouldn't explain why Sammael didn't come, but it does answer the other question, at least.

[lou]

Lou, the plan is relevant. As far as I can understand, some Graendal supporters maintain that she went to Caemlyn expressly to meet Rahvin, in which meeting they were supposed to link--Lanfear included--and Travel to Illian--according to the plan in question. Had it been compromised before that fateful day, then there would have been no tangible reason for Graendal to be in Caemlyn. In this context, the plan is vital to explain why she was there, otherwise it would have to be the other explanation, that she was there for her own reasons. The plan was obviously compromised, but only at the last minute, on the very day it was supposed to be put into effect. So, in theory, Graendal still had a valid reason to go to Caemlyn, seeing she was not aware of the events in Cairhiern (still in this context).

Lol, I am actually arguing for Graendal's case! Now I have seen it all.

 

i meant the linking part of the plan, it is irrelevant as to when the link was to take place because it never happened. i believe that graendal was in caemlyn waitng the signal, saw rand chase after rahvin,took an opportunity to rid herself of a rival.

[Darkness Incarnated]

In Caemlyn... where? Given what we know of Graendal, I have a hard time imagining her hanging around anywhere else than the palace, and I have an even harder time picturing Rahvin allowing her to stroll about. So where was she positioned to witness the fight? I'm not saying it's not possible, just want to know your opinion--or anyone else's.

[Seriodor]

It's gonna turn out to be something completely unexpeced like mistress harfor, or like The guy who sold Mat his Hat in the Aiel waste that was a Darkfriend(if he didnt die, i cant remember).

[Luckers]

Unfortunately its not. RJ has stated that the murderer should be intuitively obvious, and whilst that obviously hasn't been the case, it does remove complete randoms from the listing.

 

well, luckers who would you say did it if it wasn't graendal, like if an h-bomb blew the sweet guacomole outta her.

 

Honestly, no one else fits. Lanfear has some basic motives for the assault, yet if she could escape finnland i would rather suspect that Rand would be her target, and besides as of WH we know that she didn't get out. Sammael was waiting to be attacked, and later disavows any knowledge of Asmodean's death in his own thoughts. Moiraine seems to have no motive, given her comments in the letter, and also she was trapped with no way out. Fain has no motive, Asmodean would likely not recognize him, and RJ has told us it wasn't him. Slayer had no reason to predict Asmo's presence in Caemlyn, and as he can't channel there is the instantaniety problem.

 

Pretty much Graendal is the only option.

 

Well, the assumption that Graendal went to Caemlyn specifically to link in a way excludes her knowing the events in Cairhiern, because without Lanfear the plan is kaput. As I said somewhere else, when Rand gets into the palace Graendal is nowhere to be seen, when she should have been there--according to the plan--with Rahvin, waiting for Lanfear's signal. Anyone cares to clarify that bit? Also, to those with the book, could you tell me whether it's specific about the time Rand attacked Rahvin? i.e. before/close to/after midday, for instance?

 

It fits Graendal's nature. In the event of an assault she would hide, not stand and fight. Beyond which i do doubt that she would wait with Rhavin in person. There is too much mistrust for that. But yes, she would have been enarby waiting for Lanfears signal. And its around midday or after that the attack took place. Events at the wharf were in the morning, this took place later.

 

If, of course, a Forsaken did it, Luckers...

 

It seems almost certain that it was a Forsaken. The only non-Forsaken options are Aviendha, who had other things on her mind, no motive, and no reason that Asmodean would react to her in that manner. Fain has been ruled out by RJ, and besides, he and Slayer both face the issue of knowing where Asmodean would be, as well as being able to kill an active channeler so swiftly. Moiraine was imprisoned in Finnland... there is no one else.

 

i meant the linking part of the plan, it is irrelevant as to when the link was to take place because it never happened. i believe that graendal was in caemlyn waitng the signal, saw rand chase after rahvin,took an opportunity to rid herself of a rival.

 

I concider it more likely that Asmodean surprised her whilst she was hiding--after all, he walked into that random hall, not the other way round.

 

In Caemlyn... where? Given what we know of Graendal, I have a hard time imaginating her hanging around anywhere else than the palace, and I have an even harder time picturing Rahvin allowing her to stroll about. So where was she positioned to witness the fight? I'm not saying it's not possible, just want to know your opinion--or anyone else's.

 

Specifically because Rhavin wouldn't want her strolling around--and indeed, she wouldn't want him strolling around her, she wouldn't be openly in the palace. But she would be nearby, and when the attack began she would go to ground--the risk of being detected in fleeing would be too great, and besides, we've seen her linger about places where her brethren are defeated. After Sammael died she entered his rooms while the battle was still in play. This isn't a function of cowardice, but caution.

[Seriodor]

hmmm i guess maybe Grandael is the only one that fits. But i still think theres a slim chance it could've been the Darkfriend Wagon-Driver.

[Cybertrolloc]

hmmm i guess maybe Grandael is the only one that fits. But i still think theres a slim chance it could've been the Darkfriend Wagon-Driver.

Tall order, Lanfear skinned him that morning. So he has to pull himself together and travel from Carhein to Caemlyn in a few hours...then do things we've never seen him do and have no idea that he can do (we have a PoV segment with Cadere). Only thing in his favor is Asmo would poo if he saw him ;)