The Shadow comes to Tar Valon ..... and does what?

[PrinceOfRavens]

eehmm.... in the Healing of mat part in TDR POV egwene i think, she said a powerfull aes sedai could raise tar valon with that sa'angreal... so i think you could destroy the walls, making them stronger with the power does certainly not make it invincible

[DemandredFO]

Could please cite that passage, I just want to make sure I and Luckers are wrong before I concede defeat, Thanks.

[Beckon]

eehmm.... in the Healing of mat part in TDR POV egwene i think' date=' she said a powerfull aes sedai could raise tar valon with that sa'angreal... so i think you could destroy the walls, making them stronger with the power does certainly not make it invincible[/quote']

 

I remember the passage, but Egwene is not exactly an expert on the construction of Tar Valon. She'd only been a novice for a few days when Mat was healed.

[RobertAlexWillis]

Robert, why would the Aes Sedai reinforce the walls but not the bridges, I'm not saying they did I'm just asking.

 

Because walls keep people out. Bridges let people in. In war, you want one, but not the other, and you don't build a city with walls unless you're thinking about war.

 

Second, couldn't it be said that the shining walls already do kneel to Mesaana?

 

Maybe.

 

Could please cite that passage, I just want to make sure I and Luckers are wrong before I concede defeat, Thanks.

 

TDR ch 18. Egwene's POV, thinking to herself, it says,

 

"Egwene had never seen the wand before, but she recognized it from a lecture Anaiya had given the novices. One of the few sa'angreal, and perhaps the most powerful, that the Tower possessed. Sa'angreal had not power of their own, of course - they were merely devices for focusing and magnifying what an Aes Sedai could channel - but with that wand, a strong Aes Sedai might be able to crumple the walls of Tar Valon."

[Luckers]

Let me preface my response by saying that im not going to address everything. For certain things im fairly sure you guys know my position and thoughts, and im not going to waste your time by restating them, especially when they can't be proved beyond a reasonable doubt. If i skip anything you specifically want addressed feel free to call me up on it, and hopefully without my momentary snippiness.

 

Firslt i feel i should address the 100 miles a day comment. It was something RJ said, however after some extensive looking about, i cannot find it, so feel free to make of that what you will. What i do have support for is that in the BWB it states that they run a little slower then a horse, but have much greater stamina.

 

A horse runs at (thank you anonymous) at around 30 to 40 miles per hour. Their problem is they don't have the stemina to keep this up for long periods of time. Gallop a horse for an hour, and it'll drop dead on you. So, assuming (and it is an assumption) that a Trolloc can run at around 20 (could be 25, or even 15, depends on how you define 'a little slower') miles per hour, but can hold that pace for longer.

 

Theoretically if they could maintain this pace all day they could run somewhere in excess of 200 miles in a day. Certainly we have seen other groups run all day at their fastest pace--not RJ's most realistic moment. Now, i dont believe they could manage that... Trollocs are inherently lazy.

 

This is sort of where we come full circle back to my unsubstantiated 100 mile comment.

 

However, my point originally was that it was not some unimaginable feat for the Trollocs to get to Tar Valon anytime soon. Keep in mind that the timelines are out. The last time we see Egwene is nearly 23 days prior to the last time we see Tuon. I personally believe the attack on the Tower by the Seanchan will take place the next day. So, 22 days may have passed since that assault began. For all we know the Trolloc army could already be around Tar Valon.

 

I must concede this point. I had forgotten about Moiraine burning through the gate at Fal Dara in TEoTW. So, obviously, the Dreadlords (or even one Dreadlord) can open the Waygate from the inside.

 

That makes your case much stronger, in the sense that removing the Avendesora leaves is not now a secure method of locking the Waygate. It does not change the military value of a bottleneck, the difficulty of moving large numbers of troops in and out of a Waygate, or the defenders ability to make such an exit point very costly for the enemy and easily defensible for themselves.

 

Or even from the outside, but Black Ajah.

 

And remember Robert, i never argued that the Trollocs having to exit through such a small portal wouldn't be potentially disasterous should an intelligent defence be mounted, my point was only ever that should a foothold be managed... even if by only a thousand trollocs, then re-containing that exit point would be... difficult.

 

I don't think that the Darkfriend rate among Aes Sedai is 2000 to 4000 percent the normal rate (its supposed to be .5 to 1 percent among the general population, if 20 percent of Aes Sedai are black ... that alot). Its just opinion, but I think Alviarin would be much, much more effective if she had that kind of control over the Tower.

 

Ok, at your highest you permit 1%. Thats ten Aes Sedai. Already what we have seen is much, much more then the normal amount.

 

Moreover, what of the threat of the shadow? There are 6,000 wise ones. Perhaps as much as 8,000 damane. 1,000 Aes Sedai. 1,200 novices. 1,400 Kin (including losses to the Seanchan, in the Seanchan) 1,000 Asha'men (if not more). 3,000 Windfinders.

 

Thats around 21,600 for the light, with angreal and sa'angreal. Against what? 100 Asha'men, and the 10 Black Ajah that havn't already been arrested? Moreover Elayne is not wrong in The Dragon Reborn. For Liandrin's thirteen to be so evenly distributed accross age, country of birth and ajah the Black's must have a wide pool to pick from. My guess is that there must be as many as 300 Black Sisters. Not to mention the 1,875 Wise Ones and 1000 Windfinders, and who knows how many random converts. Otherwise the Shadow stands no chance.

 

Now i have advocated the fact that a limited number of channelers can disrupt the efforts a larger number, we witnessed this at Dumai's Wells when 36 sisters held off 200 Wise Ones. But for 110 to hold off 21,500 (minus our evil channelers)... its simply unfeasible. Even if there are 10 million Trollocs in the Blight, the shadow becomes a laughable irritation. 50 channelers beat 100,000 in KoD. Lets say we believe what we say in Dumai's Wells as lasting a long time, which frankly as Alviarin says, i dont think is possible. And give 5 channelers to every 1 black. Thats loses us 550 channelers. The other 21,000 would be then free to kill 42 million trollocs. Thats without the 2 million soldiers the light has on its side.

 

The only way i see the Shadow looming in the manner it will need to for the last book is if A) The numbers i suggest hold up, or turn out to have been conservative. B) When the darkfriend Wise Ones rise up they inflict heavy casualities and C) The Windfinders selfishly remain out of it, which i see as possible, though it does make an issue out of the 1,000 lost darkfriend.

 

Quote:

Oh, and by the way, military history supports me. No defending army has survived the situation in question.

 

 

Forgive a little condescension here, but I have a hard time believing you know what military history does and doesn't support, when you've already admitted not knowing the details of the most famous battle in western history.

 

Besides, by your logic, any analogy from earth military history doesn't support either of us, because real life doesn't have channelers.

 

The latter was exactly my point. I wasn't suggesting that i knew military history to any great degree i was saying that no invading army had ever had up to and exceeding 100 channelers amongst their enemies numbers. Keep in mind those 100 blacks would have their own novice batteries.

 

And no matter if they are outnumbered 10 to 1, they can strike in surprise at any of the entrance points. Or even up to 3.

 

I would also suggest that no invading army had as many insurgents in the ranks of their enemies as the Dark One does. Especially in the most populous city in the world.

 

The Shadow could take Tar Valon. But they can't swarm it under in one sustained frontal assault. It would take months at a minimum, and probably years. YOU ARE UNDERESTIMATING THE VALUE OF TAR VALON'S FORTIFICATIONS.

 

I am not. How many times have i said that i believe that the Shadow would take months to take Tar Valon under normal siege circumstances. You prevaricate like a lawyer Robert, seperating issues and avoiding the whole.

 

How many insurgents did Alexander have within Tyre? How many channelers? Did he use the Ways? And to what effect? How did his opponents stop him from using the ways? What plans did they have or employ in case their containment of the ways failed? How did they deploy their channelers? How did they plan to deal with their black sisters and darkfriends (I suppose they would be called Alexfriends)? What deployments did they have in place for dealing with the large hostile force sitting in the heart of their city?

 

So no, no matter how you wield your caps (and trust me mate, you do do it well. I felt like a child being chastized for stealing my neighbours puppy. Why a puppy? Well, poor little thing totally loved me more!) i am not underestimating the fortifications, although holding them would be no where near as easy as you make out, it could be done, and sustained for some time. But there are other issue, and im sorry Robert, but there is no historical situation that is comprable to that.

 

Quote:

You just seem to be implying that they intentionally fail.

 

 

I'm implying that the people at the very top don't care if the attack fails militarily, because it will still accomplish their goals.

 

And i understand that suggesting. I'm saying that with the extreme prejudice with which the Shadow fought the War of the Power, its unsupported by what we have seen to date of their intentions and actions. More to the point, even if your theories about the methodology of the Dark Ones escape are accurate (and i agree that it is extremely probable that they are) then victory at Tar Valon makes sense. If excalation of the violence is what the Shadow seeks then the decisive destruction of Tar Valon would do that. The fall of the tower would ring the drums of war the world over.

 

I don`t think trollocs would survive a seven days long "gallop" anyway. I would be very surprised if the trolloc army moved from Tarwins Gap to Tar Valon in a week, while Lan would need two or three months to reach Tarwins gap from the Worlds End.

 

One small thought, a week is ten days, not seven. I do not believe Lan's trip will take several months either, but that rather Lan will arrive at Shienar roughly 4 or 5 days after the Trolloc forces, then follow them south.

 

The last time someone visited the Borderlands in the books was when Nyaneve spread word of Lan`s trip to Tarwins Gap, and we can`t know that she visited Shienar at the time.

 

Well, actually, we can know that she didn't. Nynaeve and Lan travelled to the Borderlands somewhere between 5 and 7 days after the Cleansing. When KoD ends it is roughly 43 days after the Cleansing, though that is for Tuon, and she is the exception. For the majority of characters we leave them at around 20 to 23 days after the cleansing.

 

Thats still some considerable time since anyone saw the Blightborder though, so your suggestion is still completely viable.

 

Option 2 (they don't take the city).

 

Demandred: "We didn't take the city. I told you a siege was better."

 

Moridin: "Did alot of people die?"

 

Demandred: "Well, yeah. Could have been more, but ..."

 

Moridin: "Great. Now go ravage the countryside."

 

Demandred: "Wait, you sound as if it doesn't matter! Almost as if you dont care... why... oh my god you plan to destroy the world! I was promised i would rule after the Day of Return and you've been lying to me. Well, im simply shocked. I mean, i know we're the bad guys and all that... but lying? Thats just uncool man. I'm very dissapointed in you. Well, i'd better go warn the others. In the mean time you go and sit on the naughty stool!

 

Moridin: But--

 

Demandred: THE NAUGHTY STOOL!

 

 

Seriously though, if the shadows not making every attempt to win at this early stage... yes, later on, if your theories are correct, i could see Moridin actively seeking to delay victory to further the violence... but until then... this is the least of their battles against the least of their enemies. Victory would serve massively to the purpose you suggest... and even if Moridin still didn't care, he'd give charge to Demandred, and HE would make every effort.

 

Robert, why would the Aes Sedai reinforce the walls but not the bridges, I'm not saying they did I'm just asking. Second, couldn't it be said that the shining walls already do kneel to Mesaana? Third, I feel special that I am in the middle of the Luckers vs. RAW debate

 

Lol, im not sure you should. We're like little children bickering at times.

[cloglord]

While it is not concrete evidence, I would like to point out that it has not once been mentioned in any book or chapter that I can remember reading, that Aes Sedai have ever destroyed one of their bridges.

 

They have been besieged by the greatest military mind in Randland history, Artur Hawkwing, and quite a bit of exposition can be found on those events, but the destruction of the bridges is not mentioned.

 

The white tower was partially ransacked by dreadlords and trollocs, during the trolloc wars. Again, both the BWB and Siuan give us quite a few details about these events, but it is never suggested that the bridges were destroyed during those occasions.

 

I'm not saying that its definitive, but the fact that It has not been mentioned seems to be a strong negative indicator that the bridges would not be destroyed. Of course, this doesn't make sense from a strategic standpoint as RAW has pointed out, but maybe it could be chalked up to aes sedai hubris. I am inclined to believe however that if hubris once ruled the day, it most liely will continue to do so.

 

Even if a trolloc is as fast as a horse, if you read my post in the "Will Lan reach Tarwin's gap," thread, you''l see that I quoted some pretty firm endurable speeds from historic and contemporary examples. In present day, endurance horse racing, a winning rider can do 100 miles in 10-12 hours. his takes into account time for food and water breaks and veterinary checkups. his does not take into account time to farage for food. This is also an example of a one day race with weeks to recuperate in between. I also quoted US Calvary requirements for horses in the late 19th century. The US calvary required their horses to be able to do 300 miles in 5 days. This is a sustainable pace while carrying 200 pounds. Of course these calvary forces were also not required to forage for their own food, and were not fighting their way through any sort of resistance. Even if this hypothetical trolloc army were able to maintain the US calvary's pace it would take them nearly 2 weeks to reach tar valon. Much more, if Lan were directing the delaying measures that Luckers, theorizes.

 

Another thing to consider. If say, this torolloc army is running at the rate of a horse, and can manage to do this 10 abreast, This would mean that the trolloc ranks would be 100,000 deep. Given that I am 6 foot tall and my average stride is around 3 feet, it is not out of line to think that a running stride for a trolloc is 5 feet or better. But for the sake of argument and easy math, lets call the running stride of a trolloc 5 foot. That means that the length of the trolloc army would be somewhere on the order of 500,000 feet long or, about 95 miles long. This of course would mean that the end of the army would be 35 miles behind where the beggining of the army started out every day. This means that the end of the ranks can only eat what the front of the army has left behind for them, and that every 3rd day or so, they will only have what the beggining and the middle of the army left for them. So how much does a trolloc eat?

 

1 pound of ground beef after cooking has about 900 calories. I calculated the dietary requirements of a typical 7'6" 350 Lb. Trollocs, and in order to maintain body weight on an active schedule, (like that demanded by running 100 miles/day,) would require 5602.82 calories per day, or about 6.2 pounds of ground meat per day. If we say that the average borderlander is 150 pounds, (which I believe to be generous considering women and children,) The means that this hypothetical trolloc army would have to kill, cook and eat around 41,333 people per day. In order to maintain their strength for their battle at the shining walls of tar valon.

 

If Trollocs travel at the rate of 60 miles/day that means that they would be on the road for 11.66 days or around 13 days if they allow the end of the army to catch up to the beggining. At that rate 537,333 borderlanders would likely end up going into a trolloc cookpot. That seems like a lot of people to kill and eat, while somehow trying to keep the aes sedai from knowing that a gigantic trolloc horde is about to descend on them. I wonder if there are even that many borderlanders in all of shienar?

[Luckers]

Three things, one, i no longer theorize that Lan will be ahead of the Trollocs... i now seem him following them.

 

Two, the food source for the Trollocs seems obvious to me... the Shienaran race.

 

Three, i do not believe that the Trollocs will make the trip in seven days. My point was only a response to cloglords disbelief that the Trollocs could get there prior to the end of a Memory of Light. They can. They will run directly there. I believe it will take them around 20 days.

 

Even if this hypothetical trolloc army were able to maintain the US calvary's pace it would take them nearly 2 weeks to reach tar valon.

 

Yes, exactly. I added the extra six days for the sake of the Shienarans.

[cloglord]

It took the Nazis longer than that to kill half a million people, and they had guns, and bombs, and trains, and death camps. I'm still not seeing how you move 1,000,000 trollocs, 700 miles through one of the toughest borderland countries, (even if they are understrength,) in a mere 3 weeks.

[RobertAlexWillis]

Ok, at your highest you permit 1%. Thats ten Aes Sedai. Already what we have seen is much, much more then the normal amount.

 

It is higher than average of course. I just don't think its 20 to 40 times higher. In my opinion, there are maybe 80-100 total, spread through all the factions. But thats just opinion, for both of us.

 

Moreover, what of the threat of the shadow? There are 6,000 wise ones. Perhaps as much as 8,000 damane. 1,000 Aes Sedai. 1,200 novices. 1,400 Kin (including losses to the Seanchan, in the Seanchan) 1,000 Asha'men (if not more). 3,000 Windfinders.

 

Thats around 21,600 for the light, with angreal and sa'angreal. Against what? 100 Asha'men, and the 10 Black Ajah that havn't already been arrested? Moreover Elayne is not wrong in The Dragon Reborn. For Liandrin's thirteen to be so evenly distributed accross age, country of birth and ajah the Black's must have a wide pool to pick from. My guess is that there must be as many as 300 Black Sisters. Not to mention the 1,875 Wise Ones and 1000 Windfinders, and who knows how many random converts. Otherwise the Shadow stands no chance.

 

That is my point. The Shadow no longer has the resources to really win militarily over time. Their threat is not a military one. Their threat is "We can free the Dark One." Numbers would cease to matter at that point. Thats why I think ANY military action is of only secondary importance. Theres no realistic way that the Shadow can hope to win militarily over the long term, in the current world.

 

They are a different kind of threat. No less real for not being purely military. In fact, they may be MORE dangerous, if they can use military type action to distract the Light from dealing with the REAL threat.

 

I'm saying that with the extreme prejudice with which the Shadow fought the War of the Power, its unsupported by what we have seen to date of their intentions and actions.

 

The situation in the current battle is very, very different than it was in the War of the Power. In that war, the Shadow had a full hundred years of an open Bore to get ready, a much larger contingent of channelers, and a much, MUCH higher raw number and percentage of human adherents. Friends of the Dark were open in their alleigance for years before the War actually began. A military solution made much more sense and was much more practical under those conditions. The Shadow's tactics and plans now are, in my opinion, very different.

 

Demandred: "Wait, you sound as if it doesn't matter! Almost as if you dont care... why... oh my god you plan to destroy the world! I was promised i would rule after the Day of Return and you've been lying to me. Well, im simply shocked. I mean, i know we're the bad guys and all that... but lying? Thats just uncool man. I'm very dissapointed in you. Well, i'd better go warn the others. In the mean time you go and sit on the naughty stool!

 

Moridin: But--

 

Demandred: THE NAUGHTY STOOL!

 

That was funny!

 

Seriously though, if the shadows not making every attempt to win at this early stage... yes, later on, if your theories are correct, i could see Moridin actively seeking to delay victory to further the violence... but until then... this is the least of their battles against the least of their enemies. Victory would serve massively to the purpose you suggest... and even if Moridin still didn't care, he'd give charge to Demandred, and HE would make every effort.

 

You know ... that last Forsaken coffee hour and Shaidar Haran's rape of Mesaana didn't leave me with the impression that Moridin or Shaidar Haran much care what the rest of them think now. They're taking the "do as I say because I said it" tactic. Besides, Demandred would just write it off to Moridin being crazy. Demandred won't believe that the Dark One is going to betray him because he doesn't WANT to believe that. If he was willing to consider that possibility realistically, the same evidence that convinced us is available to him. He knows Moridin's philosophy. He knows the basic nature of the Wheel. As support for my position, let me quote RJ's answer to the question:

 

"The Dark One has promised his followers immortality and power above all others on the Day of Return. In previous interviews you have said that this is within his power. My question is, will he?"

 

RJ answered: "That's the big question for the Forsaken, isn't it. Can they trust the Dark One? You're right; he isn't very trustworthy or loyal. Greed leads people to believe strange things, to excuse the most abhorrent behavior on their parts-just check out the nightly news for confirmation-and at the root, that is what motivates the Forsaken and, in truth, most Darkfriends. Greed for power, greed for immortality. That makes them believe, because they want to believe."

 

Demandred isn't going to turn now, especially not on something as flimsy as "you don't seem concerned that I'm not getting my domain". Demandred will continue to believe that things are going his way, because thats what he WANTS to believe.

 

I'm not saying that its definitive, but the fact that It has not been mentioned seems to be a strong negative indicator that the bridges would not be destroyed. Of course, this doesn't make sense from a strategic standpoint as RAW has pointed out, but maybe it could be chalked up to aes sedai hubris. I am inclined to believe however that if hubris once ruled the day, it most liely will continue to do so.

 

I agree both that those accounts are not definitive, and that if anyone has the hubris to ignore such a basic tenet of fortified warfare, it is the Aes Sedai. With Elaida in charge, maybe ... MAYBE they're radishy enough to leave the bridges up. If Egwene is in charge, she will listen to Gareth Bryne here, and if Bryne doesn't tell her to take them out, it better be because he had a stroke.

[DemandredFO]

I see this as being a time where the "it's always been" AS syndrome coming into play. By that I mean

Gareth Bryne: Mother we must destroy the bridges to keep the trollocs out.

Egwene and/or other AS: Are you f*ing nuts?!! Destroy part of our city. We survived the Trolloc Wars and Hawkwing's seige with intact bridges and we will survive now too. THAT WILL BE ALL LORD BRYNE!!!

 

Secondly, judging by Mat we can see that there were great generals during the Trolloc Wars. It is my belief that the suggestion was brought up and quashed, same as my scenario 2000 years later. Egwene is becoming too much an Aes Sedai and as such I don't see her doing it.

[RobertAlexWillis]

I see this as being a time where the "it's always been" AS syndrome coming into play. By that I mean

Gareth Bryne: Mother we must destroy the bridges to keep the trollocs out.

Egwene and/or other AS: Are you f*ing nuts?!! Destroy part of our city. We survived the Trolloc Wars and Hawkwing's seige with intact bridges and we will survive now too. THAT WILL BE ALL LORD BRYNE!!!

 

Secondly, judging by Mat we can see that there were great generals during the Trolloc Wars. It is my belief that the suggestion was brought up and quashed, same as my scenario 2000 years later. Egwene is becoming too much an Aes Sedai and as such I don't see her doing it.

 

I'm sorry, but in the tactical matters of the war, she has firmly allied herself with Bryne. I can't speculate on what happened in the Trolloc Wars ... we don't have any sort of tactical detail ... they may have knocked down the bridges, we don't know. I don't think that Egwene is enough of a radish not to see the point of destroying the bridges.

 

There is another point to be considered. Travelling had apparently been lost by the time of the Trolloc Wars. So the Aes Sedai may have tried to keep the bridges up so they could resupply more easily, and simply left them up too long. With the ability to use gateways to resupply, Egwene can much more easily afford to knock them down. Travelling makes Tar Valon alot more secure, since the defenders can afford to cut off ALL regular mainland access to the island and still get supplies.

[Luckers]

It took the Nazis longer than that to kill half a million people, and they had guns, and bombs, and trains, and death camps. I'm still not seeing how you move 1,000,000 trollocs, 700 miles through one of the toughest borderland countries, (even if they are understrength,) in a mere 3 weeks.

 

Fal Moran and Fal Dara do not have the strength of Tar Valon. They are, as you said, understrength, and the shadow has likely been moving darkfriends in for some time.

 

Even if they havn't though, no stronghold can stand against an army with dreadlords. One channeler could rake their walls with lightning. A hundred could blow their walls down in moments... shatter their gates, blow appart their ramparts and towers. And without the benefits of their fortifications, they will fall in hours. They simply dont have the numbers anymore to stand against a Trolloc invasion of that size.

 

So no, i have no problem with the Trollocs making that trip in two weeks (their weeks).

 

Quote:

Ok, at your highest you permit 1%. Thats ten Aes Sedai. Already what we have seen is much, much more then the normal amount.

 

 

It is higher than average of course. I just don't think its 20 to 40 times higher. In my opinion, there are maybe 80-100 total, spread through all the factions. But thats just opinion, for both of us.

 

20 to 40? Er... Robert, im suggesting 300. Thats 15 times greater. Not 20 to 40. And your suggestiong is 5 times greater.

 

Besides Robert, we know that in the past the Dark One has mannaged to get way more the 1 percent of channelers on his side... are you suggesting that the people of modern times are in some way more noble, more pure of purpose? That the people in the Trolloc Wars time felt they had more to gain from the Shadow when the Dark One wasn't even free? No amount of italicized incredulity is going to convince me of that.

 

That is my point. The Shadow no longer has the resources to really win militarily over time. Their threat is not a military one. Their threat is "We can free the Dark One." Numbers would cease to matter at that point. Thats why I think ANY military action is of only secondary importance. Theres no realistic way that the Shadow can hope to win militarily over the long term, in the current world.

 

They are a different kind of threat. No less real for not being purely military. In fact, they may be MORE dangerous, if they can use military type action to distract the Light from dealing with the REAL threat.

 

I disagree firmly. For many reasons, but on this... for 11 books the characters have been gathering military arms, and the shadows, including moridin, has been seeking to weaken the military strength of the light. I don't see RJ changing this scope in the last book.

 

The situation in the current battle is very, very different than it was in the War of the Power. In that war, the Shadow had a full hundred years of an open Bore to get ready, a much larger contingent of channelers, and a much, MUCH higher raw number and percentage of human adherents. Friends of the Dark were open in their alleigance for years before the War actually began. A military solution made much more sense and was much more practical under those conditions. The Shadow's tactics and plans now are, in my opinion, very different.

 

Before i respond, do you not think Demandred would be a little antsy by now if that were the case? He would know better then most the effectiveness of channelers in battle, and what superior numbers for the light would mean.

 

Most of that is conjecture based purely in theme, with no fact. Militarily the shadow far outnumbers the light except in channelers, and you have no evidence supporting such a low number of Dark Channelers.... I dont really see how i can respond to it, you are locked on this theory that i personally think is unsustainable, and you will keep throwing out situations specifically rationalized to support that theory (and there isn't anything wrong with that, mind). I do not agree with that theory, though i do understand it, therefore i find the suggestions of the action undertaken in A Memory of Light unsustainable.

 

I would ask you dont dismiss alternative as untenable. I've said many times that i can see ways to foil the Shadows assault on Tar Valon, but the majority of those ways result from chance... will this character realise this in time, will Demandred think of this in time, will Pevara uncover the Black in time, will Egwene think of the Ways in time, will some quick-weaving Aes Sedai manage to sever a Dreadlords weave before it smashes a hole in the gate, will some Black Sister manage to rake the defenders with lightning at a crucial moment in repulsing a Trolloc assault, will Demandred have been intelligent enough to have been sending darkfriends into the city for months now.

 

The answer to most of these lays in what RJ wants to happen, but ignoring that i frankly think that the answer lies more intuitively to my side. As far as Egwene knows only a hundred trollocs can use the ways at any one time. A dreadlord or forsaken could reverse their weave making it essentially impossible for an Aes Sedai to react in the heartbeat it takes for that weave to blow a hole in the gate. The same goes for Black Sisters striking at crucial moments. And Demandred is a brilliant general who has known when Tarmon Gai'don would begin for nearly a year.

 

Even if your theory is correct, do you see Demandred being half-assed about this job? Would you, having read the scenario i laid out have gone 'come on! Demandred is an idiot, he never would have thought to send darkfriends in. And an Aes Sedai not detecting a reversed weave in the mere moments she had, thats impossible. Aes Sedai are gods. And Egwene didn't send thousands of guards and hundreds of Aes Sedai to a waygate she had no reason to concider a threat? What is that? And even if she did, how did 20 black sisters manage to distract them for ten minutes... i mean, it was only the ground exploding under their feet. They should have shrugged it off.'

 

To date you have avoided responding to the situation as a whole. That whole makes me doubt your dismissal of the threat posed against Tar Valon. For there to be 'zero risk' as you termed it, well firstly RJ will have had to have lost his mind as a writer, and then a whole sequence of extremely unlikely realities will have to come to be. Now dont get me wrong, i dont see the Shadow winning, and i certainly dont see everything going right for them. Not even by a long shot. But you can be sure as hell they will make one bloody fight out of it.

 

And, i think you can also be sure that at least two gates will fall, an incursion through the ways will have limited success, and darkfriends and black ajah will contribute to both. Essentially, what i am saying, is that for a time i think you can be sure that it will appear that victory for the shadow will be in hand.

 

And remember, since i think Mat and Elayne will be there, im giving the Light a whole lot more firepower then you have been suggesting. I still think this will play out in my manner.

 

And really... if you are correct what does the Dark One have to gain if the trollocs never breach the walls? Of course he is going to care about victory in that situation... if he wants the dead to outnumber the living, then simply leaving trollocs to be picked off by lightning...

 

 

"The Dark One has promised his followers immortality and power above all others on the Day of Return. In previous interviews you have said that this is within his power. My question is, will he?"

 

RJ answered: "That's the big question for the Forsaken, isn't it. Can they trust the Dark One? You're right; he isn't very trustworthy or loyal. Greed leads people to believe strange things, to excuse the most abhorrent behavior on their parts-just check out the nightly news for confirmation-and at the root, that is what motivates the Forsaken and, in truth, most Darkfriends. Greed for power, greed for immortality. That makes them believe, because they want to believe."

 

Demandred isn't going to turn now, especially not on something as flimsy as "you don't seem concerned that I'm not getting my domain". Demandred will continue to believe that things are going his way, because thats what he WANTS to believe.

 

I disagree. If the Forsaken become aware that their interests are being threatened they will react viciously. And their reactions cannot be ignored. Their word can command the trollocs unhesitating obedience... and we saw how dangerous that was to Moridin in KoD. They each have wide-ranging contacts amidst the Friends of the Dark. If they turned on the Dark One his chances of success become zilch.

 

Besides, it plays into his hands to let them fight this war was absolute zeal. I mean especially if your predictions about strength are correct... he wants a maximum fatality rate, and without an effort... a REAL effort, on the part of the shadow, then his forces risk being swept aside like flotsam.

 

See that... i used the word flotsam!

 

Quote:

I see this as being a time where the "it's always been" AS syndrome coming into play. By that I mean

Gareth Bryne: Mother we must destroy the bridges to keep the trollocs out.

Egwene and/or other AS: Are you f*ing nuts?!! Destroy part of our city. We survived the Trolloc Wars and Hawkwing's seige with intact bridges and we will survive now too. THAT WILL BE ALL LORD BRYNE!!!

 

Secondly, judging by Mat we can see that there were great generals during the Trolloc Wars. It is my belief that the suggestion was brought up and quashed, same as my scenario 2000 years later. Egwene is becoming too much an Aes Sedai and as such I don't see her doing it.

 

 

I'm sorry, but in the tactical matters of the war, she has firmly allied herself with Bryne. I can't speculate on what happened in the Trolloc Wars ... we don't have any sort of tactical detail ... they may have knocked down the bridges, we don't know. I don't think that Egwene is enough of a radish not to see the point of destroying the bridges.

 

Thats not entirely true. She blocked bryne from using travelling to take Tar Valon, but that was because her goals were not the defeat of Elaida, but rather saving the Aes Sedai from Elaida's ... radishness (who came up with this?).

 

That being said i agree with Robert's deduction, she is objective enough to command the bridges destroyed. Where i disagree is the ability of the Aes Sedai to achieve that. In KoD we see that after seven days of unopposed effort the Aes Sedai are still struggling with the harbour towers. Now add a Trolloc assault, and some dreadlords.

 

 

Also... has it occured to anyone that its possible that by the time the Trollocs invade there will be no chains accross the harbour mouth... Uh oh...

[RobertAlexWillis]

20 to 40? Er... Robert, im suggesting 300. Thats 15 times greater. Not 20 to 40. And your suggestiong is 5 times greater.

 

You said there were a hundred in the Tower. Your exact quote was:

 

How exactly did the Spartans deal with over a hundred of their own channelers striking in surprise?

 

There are about 500 Aes Sedai in the Tower now. 100 is one fifth of 500, or twenty percent. 20 is 20 times greater than 1, and 40 times greater than .5 . Therefore, your original suggestion was 20-40 times greater than the percentage RJ has named in interviews as normal among the general population.

 

I admitted the percentage among Aes Sedai is higher. The text proves it. But it does not mean that it is 2000 to 4000 percent higher. I do suggest that 5-8 times higher is much more likely.

 

Again, neither of us has proof.

 

That the people in the Trolloc Wars time felt they had more to gain from the Shadow when the Dark One wasn't even free?

 

Do you have numbers on the Trolloc Wars that none of us have? If so, I'd love to see them. It could clear up alot.

 

For many reasons, but on this... for 11 books the characters have been gathering military arms, and the shadows, including moridin, has been seeking to weaken the military strength of the light.

 

Ah ... but not by military MEANS. Their attention has been spent getting the Light to fight itself, or establishing domains by deception. The Shadow, as a whole, has not yet embarked on ANY serious military campaign. Maybe its because they know they will lose a prolonged, purely military campaign.

 

Their threat this time is based on getting the Dark One loose. Perhaps military objectives can help that, but they are still secondary. If they could crush Tar Valon now, they could have done it much more easily 8 months ago when the rebels were in Altara. Why wait? Unless Tar Valon as a physical location doesn't matter, but the PEOPLE who will be killed or kept occupied do.

 

I have yet to see how acquiring any piece of real estate helps the Dark One get out.

 

If the Forsaken become aware that their interests are being threatened they will react viciously.

 

The key is if they allow themselves to become aware. I'm surprised that you would challenge the human ability for self-deceit, given your view on the illusory nature of life, the universe, and everything. Also, it seems RJ agrees with me, since he applied this specific type of self-deception to this exact question.

 

Besides, it plays into his hands to let them fight this war was absolute zeal. I mean especially if your predictions about strength are correct... he wants a maximum fatality rate, and without an effort... a REAL effort, on the part of the shadow, then his forces risk being swept aside like flotsam.

 

In other words, he doesn't care about taking real estate, he just wants lots of death. Thats what I said.

 

Look, I never said they're going to TRY to fail. I just said its a bad plan, but Moridin won't be upset if it fails, so long as it helps achieve the real goal, which is not aquiring land.

 

In KoD we see that after seven days of unopposed effort the Aes Sedai are still struggling with the harbour towers.

 

We don't know that the bridges were reinforced the same way as the walls. Unless you can show that? In fortified positions the bridges were often built deliberately weaker than the walls (or made retractable) for this very reason.

 

Regardless, they aren't using a circle with sa'angreal on the Towers, because Elaida is too much of a radish to think of it as an emergency.

 

Also... has it occured to anyone that its possible that by the time the Trollocs invade there will be no chains accross the harbour mouth... Uh oh...

 

I think they can make an iron chain. And even turn it to cuendillar. They wouldn't have to make it as thick then. They'll have several days notice minimum.

 

Besides, if they're in control of the city, Bryne can sink as many boats in the Harbors as he wants too and block them that way.

 

Cities can provide alot of scrap in a real emergency.

[Luckers]

There are about 500 Aes Sedai in the Tower now. 100 is one fifth of 500, or twenty percent. 20 is 20 times greater than 1, and 40 times greater than .5 . Therefore, your original suggestion was 20-40 times greater than the percentage RJ has named in interviews as normal among the general population.

 

I admitted the percentage among Aes Sedai is higher. The text proves it. But it does not mean that it is 2000 to 4000 percent higher. I do suggest that 5-8 times higher is much more likely.

 

Again, neither of us has proof.

 

I concede that. I have suggestive evidence, though. Although to be fair it was originally Elayne's catch, not mine. The numbers of Black would have to be great to allow the age varience and country varience presented in Liandrin's 13. Aside from the fact that exposing that many of a limited number would be deeply stupid, there is the issue of varience.

 

We have thirteen women born in twelve countries, increasing steadily in age from 40 to 250. And you claim that they found that within a pool of one hundred? I find that suggestively unlikely.

 

Moreover we know of 24 Black sisters. 5 are dead, 13 are captives of various people, 4 are well known as blacks and are in hiding leaving a total of 2 still acting effectively. Sugestively RJ must have more Black Sisters.

 

As for numbers, i did not think it through... well no, i did, i just was wrong. Although to be fair you were reading from those in the tower. I suggest there is as much as 300 out of 1000... surely 30% would have done your cause better.

 

I still stand by the amount, however. The Aes Sedai are indoctrinated with the desire for power, or presenting the image of power, since the moment they enter the initiate. I have no trouble seeing them fall to the Dark Path. And my statements about dark channeler needs, and the intrinsic fallibility of modern people v. people of the Trolloc Wars also stand.

 

And by the way, again, you stated in my military roundup thread that you thought my suggestion conservative... whats with that?

 

Quote:

That the people in the Trolloc Wars time felt they had more to gain from the Shadow when the Dark One wasn't even free?

 

 

Do you have numbers on the Trolloc Wars that none of us have? If so, I'd love to see them. It could clear up alot.

 

The Trolloc Wars lasted three hundred years. There were between 4000 and 6000 Aes Sedai at the time (estimate based on the capacity of the Tower, and comments indicating that the last time it was at full capacity was during the Trolloc Wars). 50 Aes Sedai can deal with 100,000 Trollocs. Do the math. Even if the lack of Rand's awesome weaves increses it to 100 Aes Sedai to 100,000 Trollocs the picture is clear. For the war to have lasted like it did there must have been a comprable number of channelers.

 

And seriously, you cant be suggesting there were only 200 channelers involved in the Trolloc Wars on the side of the shadow... or now. Its an absurdity. I know you have this pet theory of yours... but why does it demand the shadow be impotent fools for its existence?

 

So again, are perople suddenly more altruistic? Less greedy? I dont see it.

 

Ah ... but not by military MEANS. Their attention has been spent getting the Light to fight itself, or establishing domains by deception. The Shadow, as a whole, has not yet embarked on ANY serious military campaign. Maybe its because they know they will lose a prolonged, purely military campaign.

 

That conjecture... and not even with any fact. The efforts have been at weakening the light, disrupting co-operation. It has been at weakening the force they can present. There is nothing at all within the actions of the Forsaken that even hints that your theory is needed.

 

Their threat this time is based on getting the Dark One loose. Perhaps military objectives can help that, but they are still secondary. If they could crush Tar Valon now, they could have done it much more easily 8 months ago when the rebels were in Altara. Why wait? Unless Tar Valon as a physical location doesn't matter, but the PEOPLE who will be killed or kept occupied do.

 

I'm sorry, but have you thought that through? They kill Elaida and leave the majority of the Aes Sedai out there to add to the strength of the light when you state they have at best 200 channelers? Yes. A much more clever plan.

 

They waited because this is not a vacuum. There were other forces in play. Other concerns.

 

I have yet to see how acquiring any piece of real estate helps the Dark One get out.

 

Even with your theory, which has no real evidence, the fall of tar valon does many things. It kills a bunch of people. It gets rid of a bunch of channelers making for more even battles later on, and therefore more carnage. It sends the resounding gongs of war through the world, rising people to the fight that would result in carnage. It raises the drama for the reader, it keeps the Forsaken suitably satiated.

 

This has been said many times. You've never responded. Has it occured to you that your failure to see is an aversion? Its not just this, you avoid the effects of the Blacks and the Darkfriends and their contributory effects on a siege like the plague. Whats so important about this theory of yours that you cant even acknowledge our arguments...

 

The key is if they allow themselves to become aware. I'm surprised that you would challenge the human ability for self-deceit, given your view on the illusory nature of life, the universe, and everything. Also, it seems RJ agrees with me, since he applied this specific type of self-deception to this exact question.

 

There is a vast chasm between self-delusion, and self-advancement. they delude themselves into supporting the Dark One because it supports their gains, but do you think for a moment they would not notice the fact that not every effort is being made to attain that gain for them? They are wrapped up in their goal, they've sacrificed everything for it. If you think they arn't guarding it jealously then you are mistaken. Self-delusion is only sustainable as long as it is supporting their goal. Do you really think they would ignore a threat to it?

 

I don't. I don't think RJ does. And I do think that between their inherent intelligence, their expertise, and their lack of trust, they would pick up on it.

 

In other words, he doesn't care about taking real estate, he just wants lots of death. Thats what I said.

 

Look, I never said they're going to TRY to fail. I just said its a bad plan, but Moridin won't be upset if it fails, so long as it helps achieve the real goal, which is not aquiring land.

 

No, its not aquiring land. Again, i ask you, what does the 'zero risk' thing you keep suggesting help the Shadow in this?

 

And you did imply that they weren't trying, if not in so many words, then in saying its a bad plan. The only way its a bad plan is if they arn't trying. Or do you think that Demandred, if he were trying, would not think to use Blacks, Darkfriends, the Ways, Dreadlords and all the other things you have avoided dealing with as a whole situation?

 

We don't know that the bridges were reinforced the same way as the walls. Unless you can show that? In fortified positions the bridges were often built deliberately weaker than the walls (or made retractable) for this very reason.

 

Regardless, they aren't using a circle with sa'angreal on the Towers, because Elaida is too much of a radish to think of it as an emergency.

 

Umm... we do know the bridges were built and strengthened with the power. It is stated many, many times throughout the series when characters are marvelling over them. I'm slightly shocked you missed that. Furthermore.

 

1. Elaida is willing to threaten the Sitters with beatings and you dont think she would use a sa'angreal if it were helpful? Suine pulled one out for healing a random that she didn't even really want to heal. Holding against the rebels is much more important.

 

2. There are enough red sisters involved for a circle. Strange that they dont, if that would be effective.

 

3. Ergo, wards have to be unspun, this requires talent, not brute force.

 

I think they can make an iron chain. And even turn it to cuendillar. They wouldn't have to make it as thick then. They'll have several days notice minimum.

 

Actually i no longer think they will have several days. I no longer see anyone outmarching the Trolloc Army to Tar Valon. The notice will be when the first ranks begin arriving, after which they have about a day for the full force to come in, given the lengeth of such a force, spanning miles.

 

But do you realise how long it would take to achieve that? Make the chains? Where would they anchor it? A blow of air would knock it off, and cuendillar or not it would sink.

 

Besides, if they're in control of the city, Bryne can sink as many boats in the Harbors as he wants too and block them that way.

 

I agree, though it would be an effort.

[DemandredFO]

Luckers, I think it depends on where the channelers are, at Algarans manner even with the new weaves they said it was a close run thing. AS don't have the new weaves, it may be that 100 channelers in TV can hold against 100,000 trollocs. I think most fortifications wouldn't hold though, cuz fireballs and lightning only do so much

[Luckers]

Ok, first of all 21,000 against 200 is no contention. The Shadow dies in a matter of hours no mater inexperience of channelers or number of shadowspawn. And that is without drawing on soldiers.

 

That being said, you mistake my comments. My intentions with Robert dont really reflect my opinion on the state of things. I was trying to address his comments on his grounds.

 

In reality i do not think there are so few dark channelers. I believe there are at least three and a half thousand dreadlords, and i think it likely that there are many more between an active recruitment program i think Ishmael instigated as much as 20 years ago and conciderations like the Sharans, the Madmenian and Aiel male channelers. I also do not think that Egwene will think of the Ways. Nor that the gates will hold for long.

 

I was merely assuming the most extreme scenario, and trying to show robert that even then there is a massive margin for error on the side of the light.

[Beckon]

Madmenian

 

/snort

 

I've declared today "Take A Random Word Out Of A Post And Laugh At It Day".

[RobertAlexWillis]

I suggest there is as much as 300 out of 1000... surely 30% would have done your cause better.

 

The reason I think its less than half that is because the truth has a way of coming out among people who are supposed to be sworn to tell the truth. Hiding the fact that almost a third of the Aes Sedai (you see two other people, and if you're not Black, one of them has to be) is simply deception on a scale that I don't believe is possible, given the way the Black Ajah has performed. There would be too many discrepancies to be found, especially with the political way the Aes Sedai operate against each other.

 

And by the way, again, you stated in my military roundup thread that you thought my suggestion conservative... whats with that?

 

I honestly don't remember that. Could you cite it so I can see the context? If it is what I said, then I have since changed my mind ... but I don't ever remember thinking that the Tower was more than 10 to maybe 15 percent Black Ajah.

 

And seriously, you cant be suggesting there were only 200 channelers involved in the Trolloc Wars on the side of the shadow... or now. Its an absurdity.

 

Even if the raw numbers were higher (which they almost certainly were) the percentages wouldn't have to have been.

 

So again, are perople suddenly more altruistic? Less greedy?

 

Before the War of the Power, it was socially acceptable to be a Friend of the Dark. So it was easier for people to go over. We don't have percentages for the Trolloc Wars. But we do have records of Ishamael's last attempt to screw the nations. It didn't involve Trollocs and Dreadlords. The War of the Hundred years was almost certainly the result of Ishamael's tampering as Jalwin Moerad.

 

There is a pattern of decreasing military methods, and increasing deception and manipulation. The situation in the land now is very different than it has been during any of the previous conflicts. Which makes it more difficult for people who are no less greedy and no more altruistic to go over to the Shadow.

 

That conjecture... and not even with any fact. The efforts have been at weakening the light, disrupting co-operation. It has been at weakening the force they can present. There is nothing at all within the actions of the Forsaken that even hints that your theory is needed.

 

There's nothing that disproves it either. This whole conversation is based on lots of conjecture from both of us.

 

Please show me one example of a serious military campaign that the Shadow has undertaken since the Trolloc Wars. Please tell me how occupying the physical location of Tar Valon will help free the Dark One.

 

The Dark One's objectives are not mortal. Yes, the Forsaken have mortal (or immortal human) objectives, but Shai'tan is clearly reigning them in. Moridin and Shaidar Haran are pushing everyone into line, and raping or mindtrapping the ones who don't toe the line. If Moridin orders Demandred to go on a military excursion that is just going to get alot of people killed, what is Demandred going to do? Tattle? Try to kill Moridin and take over?

 

No. He won't risk his immortality this close to when he thinks he'll get it. He'll do as he's told. All of them will. Because they want to believe.

 

I'm sorry, but have you thought that through? They kill Elaida and leave the majority of the Aes Sedai out there to add to the strength of the light when you state they have at best 200 channelers? Yes. A much more clever plan.

 

Hmm ... reducing the number of Aes Sedai while they're divided, or waiting until they get together, making them much harder to kill. Ever heard the phrase "Divide and conquer"? Its based on real military strategy.

 

How does letting the rebels return to Tar Valon before an attack strengthen the Shadow's chances? Even you have to admit that nothing is more likely to force the two sides into accomodation than a million Trollocs on the doorstep. From a military perspective, attacking the Tower right after Toveine left with her 50 sisters would have been PERFECT. Elaida was firmly in hand. The rebels were nowhere near. The number of Aes Sedai in the city was as small as its ever been. If taking the LAND was important, then that was the ideal time.

 

On the other hand, if killing the PEOPLE is what matters, then trying to force them to fight each other and staying out of the way is the best policy. Especially if you're not sure you can win a direct engagement.

 

Also, I did not state they have at best 200 channelers. I said I didn't think there were more than 100 Black Ajah. Personally, I think there are more channelers, possibly 800-1000 total, in service to the Shadow. Many will be men recruited before the taint was cleansed (not all male Aiel, I'm thinking men in situations like Owyn, one of whom was Mazrim Taim), and a number of women NOT trained as Aes Sedai, from among the Sea Folk, Aiel, Shara, and other places in Randland. The Kin's assertion that there are NO Darkfriends among them is, to me, absurd self-deception.

 

This has been said many times. You've never responded. Has it occured to you that your failure to see is an aversion? Its not just this, you avoid the effects of the Blacks and the Darkfriends and their contributory effects on a siege like the plague. Whats so important about this theory of yours that you cant even acknowledge our arguments...

 

Excuse me? I have responded. I have admitted that actually taking Tar Valon would indeed have all the effects you've stated, and that the Shadow isn't trying to lose.

 

You can see the difference between deliberately losing and not caring too much if you win or lose the land, right?

 

If they do succeed in taking Tar Valon, of COURSE Moridin and Shia'tan will be pleased. Of COURSE it would help their cause. But that doesn't mean it is their primary objective, or that their primary objective will fail if they fail to take Tar Valon.

 

The last two reasons you gave, I will, however, object to. These:

 

It raises the drama for the reader, it keeps the Forsaken suitably satiated.

 

Moridin is not motivated by raising the drama for the reader. Nor do I think he is particularly worried about satiating the other Forsaken. To quote him:

 

"The Time of Return is coming soon. No one is allowed to go adventuring on their own any longer."

 

(KoD ch. 3)

 

He then proceeded to remind Mesaana of the social call she got for disobeying him last time. He's mindtrapped Moghedien and Cyndane. No, he doesn't seem terribly concerned what they all think.

 

Its not just this, you avoid the effects of the Blacks and the Darkfriends and their contributory effects on a siege like the plague.

 

I don't think there are as many Black Ajah as you do, which decreases their ability to affect things drastically. I also don't assume there are as many non-channeling Darkfriends. I also think the non-Black sisters won't just watch and do nothing. The traitors will make the battle more difficult, but not as difficult as you seem to think. Indeed, without them, the Shadow would barely inflict any casualties at all.

 

The Black Ajah has not impressed me with its effectiveness. It stands on the brink of exposure, and its leaders (Alviarin and Mesaana) are both operating as much on fear as on anything. Fear is not a good basis for decision making. No, I don't think they're not the threat you assume them to be. Its just that they HAVE to be that sort of threat for your theory to work.

 

There is a vast chasm between self-delusion, and self-advancement. they delude themselves into supporting the Dark One because it supports their gains, but do you think for a moment they would not notice the fact that not every effort is being made to attain that gain for them?

 

If they were really that objective about their own situation, then why wouldn't they have figured out the truth yet? The Dark One OBVIOUSLY doesn't care about their advancement. He blithely dangled the Nae'blis carrot in front of several of them, and then gave it to a dead man. Moridin is already Nae'blis, so why would they expect HIM to act for their advancement? They won't be surprised at any orders that come from him. They already think he's half crazy, and they don't expect the sane part to care about their interests. They will work within their orders (or outside them, if they think they can keep it secret) for their own benefit, but they won't be suspicious of getting orders that aren't to their benefit. Why would they think that Moridin was working for them?

 

And I do think that between their inherent intelligence, their expertise, and their lack of trust, they would pick up on it.

 

Again, if thats the case, then why haven't they figured it out? Unless you now think the Dark One is going to let them keep their domains and not destroy the whole Pattern and the world with it?

 

Again, i ask you, what does the 'zero risk' thing you keep suggesting help the Shadow in this?

 

Not zero. LESS. To achieve purely military goals, there are LESS risky ways than a frontal assalt on the best fortified position on the planet.

 

And you did imply that they weren't trying, if not in so many words, then in saying its a bad plan. Or do you think that Demandred, if he were trying, would not think to use Blacks, Darkfriends, the Ways, Dreadlords and all the other things you have avoided dealing with as a whole situation?

 

I'm implying that MORIDIN isn't trying terribly hard. Demandred will do the best he can with what he's given.

 

Umm... we do know the bridges were built and strengthened with the power. It is stated many, many times throughout the series when characters are marvelling over them.

 

Then it shouldn't be hard for you to find and quote one. I looked. I couldn't. It says that they were built by the Ogier. Thats it.

 

Elaida is willing to threaten the Sitters with beatings and you dont think she would use a sa'angreal if it were helpful?

 

You're saying a sa'angreal wouldn't be helpful? We're talking destruction of the bridges, remember, not careful dismantling and replacement.

 

Suine pulled one out for healing a random that she didn't even really want to heal.

 

Come on. Calling Mat a "random" is a little disingenuous. He sounded the Horn of Valere. He's ta'veren. She pulled it out because once she decided to save him, nothing less was strong enough.

 

There are enough red sisters involved for a circle. Strange that they dont, if that would be effective.

 

Yes, because they've all acted so cooperatively in everyone's best interest up until now. Also, carefully deconstructing and reconstructing towers is exactly the same as destroying bridges. [Note for readers other than Luckers. Those two sentences are sarcastic.]

 

You're smarter than that.

 

Ergo, wards have to be unspun, this requires talent, not brute force.

 

See above.

 

But do you realise how long it would take to achieve that? Make the chains? Where would they anchor it? A blow of air would knock it off, and cuendillar or not it would sink.

 

If they've managed to get the old chains loose, then they can anchor them where the old chains were. Elaida is planning to replace them, you know. They're carefully descontructing the towers, not blasting the blocks apart. If they haven't gotten the old chains loose, then they can just leave those in place.

 

This isn't as hard as you're making it seem.

 

Ok, first of all 21,000 against 200 is no contention. The Shadow dies in a matter of hours no mater inexperience of channelers or number of shadowspawn. And that is without drawing on soldiers.

 

So, you think the Shadow has .... 3500? Aside from the fact that we have seen ZERO indications of that, 3500 vs 21000 isn't much of a contest either, especially when the 21000 apparently has many more angreal and sa'angreal. (Not to mention the male Choedan Kal.) If the Shadow expects to win a military contest that badly outbumbered ... well thats a bad plan.

 

Or maybe they have a non-military plan to win. Like freeing the Dark One.

[Luckers]

The reason I think its less than half that is because the truth has a way of coming out among people who are supposed to be sworn to tell the truth. Hiding the fact that almost a third of the Aes Sedai (you see two other people, and if you're not Black, one of them has to be) is simply deception on a scale that I don't believe is possible, given the way the Black Ajah has performed. There would be too many discrepancies to be found, especially with the political way the Aes Sedai operate against each other.

 

Well, again we do know that the secret has gotten out in the past. Sisters on both sides have been killed to contain it. Moreover the cell like nature of the set up precludes familiarity. A hundred blacks could stand in a room, and no one person amongst them would have reason to believe there were more then three of four others out of that hundred.

 

You are also ignoring the intense stupidity amongst Aes Sedai on this issue. Thirteen black sisters stole ter'angreal and killed other Aes Sedai. This was well known to Aes Sedai at the time. Egwene speaks openly with Sheriam about it, Elaida states it bluntly. Yet within a few months we have them back to their same prevarication and mental loops. Suine and Moiraine have known for years, yet it took Liandrin and murders in the tower to get her to act on it.

 

I honestly don't remember that. Could you cite it so I can see the context? If it is what I said, then I have since changed my mind ... but I don't ever remember thinking that the Tower was more than 10 to maybe 15 percent Black Ajah.

 

It was in the military roundup thread which seems to have died somewhere along the way with the Breaking of the Board. Someone attacked my comment, and you sided with me, calling it conservative.

 

Its not really an issue though. I was just raising it as an ongoing railing against the presentation of your positions as obvious.

 

Even if the raw numbers were higher (which they almost certainly were) the percentages wouldn't have to have been.

 

100 out of 1000 is ten percent. Ten percent of 6000 is 600. I simply do not see it to be sustainable that 600 held out against 5400 for 300 years.

 

Before the War of the Power, it was socially acceptable to be a Friend of the Dark. So it was easier for people to go over. We don't have percentages for the Trolloc Wars. But we do have records of Ishamael's last attempt to screw the nations. It didn't involve Trollocs and Dreadlords. The War of the Hundred years was almost certainly the result of Ishamael's tampering as Jalwin Moerad.

 

There is a pattern of decreasing military methods, and increasing deception and manipulation. The situation in the land now is very different than it has been during any of the previous conflicts. Which makes it more difficult for people who are no less greedy and no more altruistic to go over to the Shadow.

 

We do have accounts speaking of the movements of darkfriend armies. Armies. And other accounts speaking of the actions of dreadlords, and those dont acount them to be annoying nuisences.

 

As for Moerad. Ishamael first tried military, and that failed, after which he turned to manipulation. How does that make a pattern of 'decreasing military methods and increasing deception and manipulation'? Prior to the series we have three counts of war, and one use of manipulation that came only after an attempt at war was made.

 

But you are right. It is different situations. Thats why would attempt at patterning is fallacious. During both the Trolloc Wars and the War of a Hundred Years Ishamael's only goal was keeping the light from growing too powerful. The goal is completely different now. The Time of Return is at hand, the forsaken are free, the Dragon is cutting his teeth on errant darkfriends.

 

Lets look at today. Yes, they have used manipulation to fragment the light. But now thats been used up. Increasingly order is returning. Rhuarc is stabalizing Arad Domon, Semirhage and Suroth have been displaced. Rand is actively seeking an alliance with the Seanchan. Bera has diffused the rebellion in Tear. Elayne has cemented Andor around her finally. The taint has been removed. undisclosed Aes Sedai are hunting the Black Ajah. The Shaido have been broken.

 

Everywhere we look we have order returning and chaos diminishing. And what has been the standing order for the shadow? What goal has Ishamael actively, and effectively pursued for over 3000 years? The destabalisation of the light. That is what we call a pattern. And they have used manipulation and deception to pursue it. But now the effectiveness of those methods have diminished, and with every passing moment the light stabalizes itself more.

 

Now is the moment for military assault. And what do we see Moridin doing? We have Cyndane and Moghedian taking charge and directing darkfriends in preparation of the attack. We have Moridin cracking down on control of the shadowspawn showing that he is himself vested in the coming use of them in warfare. Him, not Demandred.

 

I'm sorry, but i think your position is unsupported. Moridin's actions, both past and present, do not support any suggestion that he does not care ovely wether the military campeign about to be launched fails or succeeds.

 

There's nothing that disproves it either. This whole conversation is based on lots of conjecture from both of us.

 

Theres nothing to suggest it though, aside from the theme you think Moridin is playing to. Meanwhile we have 11 books and Moridin's own actions supporting a vested interest in the upcoming military campeign.

 

Please show me one example of a serious military campaign that the Shadow has undertaken since the Trolloc Wars. Please tell me how occupying the physical location of Tar Valon will help free the Dark One.

 

The assault against Artur Hawkwing. And the fall of the Tower, with all the powerful emotional symbolism it has to the people of Randland, and the destruction of the weakest--but not negligable--enemy before it has a chance to liase with the true enemy, Rand, thereby strengthening him further is the answer to the second.

 

The Dark One's objectives are not mortal. Yes, the Forsaken have mortal (or immortal human) objectives, but Shai'tan is clearly reigning them in. Moridin and Shaidar Haran are pushing everyone into line, and raping or mindtrapping the ones who don't toe the line. If Moridin orders Demandred to go on a military excursion that is just going to get alot of people killed, what is Demandred going to do? Tattle? Try to kill Moridin and take over?

 

The Dark One's objective is obvious. Freedom. And i think freedom is a mortal objective too, but that for another time. Additionally we know that the Dragon and the light presents a direct threat to the Dark Ones objective. We know that the Dark One has pursued a single minded destruction of the light since he first touched the world. Not because he needs them dead to escape, but because alive they present a risk to him being able to achieve that escape. That is what we KNOW. It's possible that he needs them dead to escape, but we have no proof of that.

 

All that we have proof of is that 1. The Dragon has in the past, and does now, have the capacity to stop the Dark One. And 2. That the Shadow has in the past sought the military defeat of the Light. Not slaughter. Defeat.

 

Hmm ... reducing the number of Aes Sedai while they're divided, or waiting until they get together, making them much harder to kill. Ever heard the phrase "Divide and conquer"? Its based on real military strategy.

 

You mean like keeping the Aes Sedai from uniting with Rand? Seems an intelligent strategy to me.

 

You keep looking in a vacuum. If the Aes Sedai was the only enemy, then sure. Devide them. Conquer them. What happens if the Shadow assaulted Tar Valon earlier. Well, for one they wouldn't be in a position to deal with their other enemies. Two, the shock and horror of the fall of the Tower i mentioned, it would wear off in time. It would furthermore drive ever other Aes Sedai right to Rand. All 800 of them.

 

Where is the strategy in that?

 

How does letting the rebels return to Tar Valon before an attack strengthen the Shadow's chances? Even you have to admit that nothing is more likely to force the two sides into accomodation than a million Trollocs on the doorstep. From a military perspective, attacking the Tower right after Toveine left with her 50 sisters would have been PERFECT.

 

It's perfect for defeating the Tower, not hurting the light. It would leave 800 sisters alive. It would drive all the remaining factions of the light together, and because of the prematurity those factions would actually have time for that unification.

 

The number of Aes Sedai in the city was as small as its ever been. If taking the LAND was important, then that was the ideal time.

 

I'm sorry, thats the third time you've tried to link my argument to the suggestion that the Shadow wants land... do you really think people here will mistake my argument for this pointless suggestion? Or that the rightly given contempt of such a stance would be transferred whole to my argument?

 

Also, I did not state they have at best 200 channelers. I said I didn't think there were more than 100 Black Ajah. Personally, I think there are more channelers, possibly 800-1000 total, in service to the Shadow. Many will be men recruited before the taint was cleansed (not all male Aiel, I'm thinking men in situations like Owyn, one of whom was Mazrim Taim), and a number of women NOT trained as Aes Sedai, from among the Sea Folk, Aiel, Shara, and other places in Randland. The Kin's assertion that there are NO Darkfriends among them is, to me, absurd self-deception.

 

So you find it easier for RJ to bring in Sharans then to have 300 blacks?

 

And the Kin never asserted that they had no Darkfriends. It was Elayne and Ispan that asserted that, based on the fact that both Moghedian, Sammael and the Black Ajah was seeking the Kin stockhold, something readily known amongst the Kin, and that knowledge never surfaced.

 

Other then that i agree that there will be representatives of all those organisations and origins. I just suggest a whole bunch more then you do.

 

Excuse me? I have responded. I have admitted that actually taking Tar Valon would indeed have all the effects you've stated, and that the Shadow isn't trying to lose.

 

You can see the difference between deliberately losing and not caring too much if you win or lose the land, right?

 

If they do succeed in taking Tar Valon, of COURSE Moridin and Shia'tan will be pleased. Of COURSE it would help their cause. But that doesn't mean it is their primary objective, or that their primary objective will fail if they fail to take Tar Valon.

 

Again with the land? in any case i wasn't suggesting you weren't addressing the issue of the potential attack.

 

What you are not addressing is that with the situation, as a whole, they have inside not caring is not an issue. If they want victory they have it with little effort. And if they dont want to make that effort, well give it to Demandred. And he'll put in that effort.

 

What you still have responded to is not about Moridin's intentions but about the situation in the tower. You make out that success for the shadow would only result from a massive effort and some chance. All it requires is Demandred and Moridin having a chat.

 

Moridin: I want you to invade Tar Valon.

 

Demandred: Oh... um, ok. But why.

 

Moridin: I roled a dice. Had to begin somewhere, this works as well as the next dump heap.

 

Demandred: Ok... well, um. Might be cool to have the Black Ajah on side. And some darkfriends near the gates or soemthing. I hear their fortifications are pretty insane. Might even send a few more in.

 

Moridin: Dude! Your messing up my buzz. You think i channel the True Power for the edgy occular look?

 

Demandred: Do i have free reign?

 

Moridin: Meh. Just make sure lots of people die.

 

Demandred: Well i need to get inside the walls then, otherwise they just bottle us up. Hey wait, didn't Tai--er--Sammael manage to get one hundred thousand trollocs through the Ways? That could be cool.

 

Moridin: Al'thor's been having them warded.

 

Demandred: Well Mesaana could surely spin a hole through that. Or maybe ill have her train one of those idiot childrean up a bit. Might include some reversin too, for the sabotage. I suppose its a dance between training them too much, and success.

 

Moridin: Do what you have to to make the body-count as high as possible.

 

Demandred: Well i could--

 

Moridin: Demandred, do you want to be buggered by Shaidar Haren? No? Then get the hell out of my office.

 

Moridin is not motivated by raising the drama for the reader. Nor do I think he is particularly worried about satiating the other Forsaken. To quote him:

 

"The Time of Return is coming soon. No one is allowed to go adventuring on their own any longer."

 

(KoD ch. 3)

 

He then proceeded to remind Mesaana of the social call she got for disobeying him last time. He's mindtrapped Moghedien and Cyndane. No, he doesn't seem terribly concerned what they all think.

 

Moridin is motivated by the need to free the Dark One, and if RJ wants that to mean motivated to defeat the light, it will. Especially since that is supported by the premise of the entire series. And RJ is motivated by making a good read.

 

As for the rest. Moridin doesn't care about their opinion coz he knows he holds them all by their desire for immortality. Let them know that that is something that will never come to be, and Moridin becomes very open to their disaproval. Having Mesaana raped, beating them, destroying their plans... all of this he has nothing to worry about. But displaying a disreguard for the overall victory of the shadow...

 

I don't think there are as many Black Ajah as you do, which decreases their ability to affect things drastically. I also don't assume there are as many non-channeling Darkfriends. I also think the non-Black sisters won't just watch and do nothing. The traitors will make the battle more difficult, but not as difficult as you seem to think. Indeed, without them, the Shadow would barely inflict any casualties at all.

 

And what of the point of Demandred sending in more? Or the effectiveness of even just a few darkfriends? This is what i mean by you avoiding it, you dont address it, you just... gloss over it with the destinction that you dont think they will be an issue. How, precisely, will the Aes Sedai deal with a surprise inverted assault at one of the gates at a crucial moment of repulsing a Trolloc assault?

 

If they were really that objective about their own situation, then why wouldn't they have figured out the truth yet?

 

Because at every stage so far the Shadow has moved for the defeat of the light. The second that effort stops you can be sure they will realise it, because the failure of the shadow threatens their interests, and because any indication that Moridin is slipping, or not performing to his best, they would jump on for their own advancement.

 

This has nothing to do with objectivity and everything to do with protecting their interests. Their conviction that the victory of the shadow will bring them immortality and power DOES blind them. But any threat to that victory... any at all....

 

The Dark One OBVIOUSLY doesn't care about their advancement. He blithely dangled the Nae'blis carrot in front of several of them, and then gave it to a dead man. Moridin is already Nae'blis, so why would they expect HIM to act for their advancement? They won't be surprised at any orders that come from him. They already think he's half crazy, and they don't expect the sane part to care about their interests. They will work within their orders (or outside them, if they think they can keep it secret) for their own benefit, but they won't be suspicious of getting orders that aren't to their benefit. Why would they think that Moridin was working for them?

 

Your speaking about advancement within the ranks, not advancement of the goal of the shadow. That they do expect both the Dark One and Moridin to care about. And THAT they would notice being neglected.

 

Not zero. LESS. To achieve purely military goals, there are LESS risky ways than a frontal assalt on the best fortified position on the planet.

 

Name one, including how exactly the shadow will bring it about, and with reference to the presense of consideration for the overall war with the light.

 

I'm implying that MORIDIN isn't trying terribly hard. Demandred will do the best he can with what he's given.

 

Then whats the issue? Victory for the shadow at Tar Valon, stopped only through the intervention of Rand and Tuon.

 

Then it shouldn't be hard for you to find and quote one. I looked. I couldn't. It says that they were built by the Ogier. Thats it.

 

Well your right, i cant find a specific quote... though in truth i didn't look to hard. I don't really see this as being a contestable issue. The construction of Tar Valon is spoken of many times throughout the series, built by Ogier, and aided by Aes Sedai with the Power... the walls, the Tower, the harbors...

 

Seriously... you really contest this? That given the length and fraility that it wasn't made with the power? They arch half a mile, unsupported, Robert.

 

You're saying a sa'angreal wouldn't be helpful? We're talking destruction of the bridges, remember, not careful dismantling and replacement.

 

Yes, i am saying that a sa'angreal will not be successful.

 

Come on. Calling Mat a "random" is a little disingenuous. He sounded the Horn of Valere. He's ta'veren. She pulled it out because once she decided to save him, nothing less was strong enough.

 

She pulled it out. It was needed, and she used it.

 

Yes, because they've all acted so cooperatively in everyone's best interest up until now. Also, carefully deconstructing and reconstructing towers is exactly the same as destroying bridges. [Note for readers other than Luckers. Those two sentences are sarcastic.]

 

You're smarter than that.

 

Um... yes, they have been acting very co-operatively. They're Reds. They get along, and they support Elaida. This is stated. I'm sorry... your sarcasm seems to imply you disagree. A chapter where the Red Ajah turns on each other, perhaps?

 

(Note for readers other then Robert, i know he doesn't have that chapter. But being a smart alec is so much fun).

 

See above.

 

Done. I feel content, how bout you?

 

So, you think the Shadow has .... 3500? Aside from the fact that we have seen ZERO indications of that, 3500 vs 21000 isn't much of a contest either, especially when the 21000 apparently has many more angreal and sa'angreal. (Not to mention the male Choedan Kal.) If the Shadow expects to win a military contest that badly outbumbered ... well thats a bad plan.

 

Or maybe they have a non-military plan to win. Like freeing the Dark One.

 

Remember when i said you weren't addressing things. This is one of them. I addressed the state of channelers and the disparate number above. If you disagree, thats fine, but dont act like i never even mentioned it so you can resuggest your point like its unopposed.

 

Also, i think they have as many as 12,000 channelers, but we wont discuss that. Your issues with darkfriend numbers have no basis in the story, and are therefore hard to challange.

 

Issues you didn't address.

 

Number of Blacks.

1. Elaynes theory of diversity of Liandrin's group.

2. The Blacks we have seen, and their fates, and RJ's willingness to throw them away showing that he has more, and that they are expandable.

3. Thirteen going with Liandrin when four would have done the job, showing the Black has sisters to spare.

4. The call of the Dark Path to Aes Sedai, who have been indoctrinated with power and self-importance since the novitiate, and the subsequent higher risk rate for darkfriends.

 

Equalising Channelers

1. Large fatalaties amongst the Wise Ones in the Wise One darkfriend uprising.

2. The possibility of the selfish Windfinders to stear clear.

 

There are others, especially in the Trolloc Assault part, but im tired of this.

[RobertAlexWillis]

I simply do not see it to be sustainable that 600 held out against 5400 for 300 years.

 

Black Ajah were not the only Dreadlords in the Trolloc Wars. And the whole Tower was not involved in the fighting. In fact, it was mostly just the Green and the Blue.

 

That the Shadow has in the past sought the military defeat of the Light. Not slaughter. Defeat.

 

Actually, during the War of the Power, they slaughtered populations AFTER they had conquered them. So, after they were defeated, they were slaughtered. In the Trolloc Wars, we don't have any records of Shadow nations or governments being established, or even occupations. Just lots and lots of killing. The Trollocs ranged all the way to the Sea of Storms, but apparently never held all the land in between.

 

That seems more like slaughter is the end than defeat.

 

Ishamael first tried military, and that failed, after which he turned to manipulation.

 

Exactly. In each successive case, he had fewer and fewer resources, resulting in more manipulation, less military. And the manipulation has been as successful as the military ever was.

 

And they have used manipulation and deception to pursue it. But now the effectiveness of those methods have diminished, and with every passing moment the light stabalizes itself more.

 

I'm sorry, why would Moridin reach that conclusion? He doesn't know that Egwene is about to re-unify the Tower. He's not anticipating Rand making accomodation with the Seanchan, and he's certainly not anticipating a White Tower-Seanchan reconciliation. He knows Rand is trying, but why would he anticipate success? Semirhage's plan just now failed, and even so, he has no reason to think Tuon will change her mind about binding Rand. War is still on in Arad Doman, thats not a done deal. Rodel Ituralde is still out there, under Graendal's indirect influence. Elayne just now secured the throne in Andor. And 200,000 Borderlanders with 13 Aes Sedai are still out there, almost certainly as a trap for Rand.

 

We know how these things are failing, or are going to fail, because we get to see Min's viewings and Egwene's Dreams and the like. I doubt Moridin has reached the same conclusion.

 

Meanwhile we have 11 books and Moridin's own actions supporting a vested interest in the upcoming military campeign.

 

Thats what I'm saying. I don't see that in his actions. I see "try to convert Rand al'Thor" in the first 3, and "keep everyone else at each others throats" for the last 8. Any overt military action will be a last ditch effort to keep Rand from doing whatever it is he can do to re-seal Shai'tan's prison, not any kind of mandate for conquest.

 

And i think freedom is a mortal objective too, but that for another time.

 

I'll be interested in that discussion.

 

What happens if the Shadow assaulted Tar Valon earlier. Well, for one they wouldn't be in a position to deal with their other enemies.

 

Where else were their forces busy? Look at the time period I specified.

 

Its around the events happening at the end of the Path of Daggers. They had just driven Rand into hiding. Perrin was busy obsessing about his wife. Mat was stuck in a bed in Ebou Dar. The Seanchan were busy on two fronts, and Rand's forces had just taken a big hit from fighting them. The Salidar Aes Sedai were stopped for a month in Murandy. Elayne had just started launching her claim to the Throne. Stewards ruled in Cairhien, Tear, and Illian, and the Aiel were fairly well spread out. The Borderlanders were marching through the Black Hills. Ituralde was engaging the Seanchan. There was no one in a position to take any decisive action against them.

 

Everyone's eyes were elsewhere, and the Tower was at its lowest strength probably ever (around 300). Alviarin still had a firm grip on Elaida.

 

THAT was the time to strike.

 

Under those conditions, they probably could have overrun the Tower, just using the Waygate. With Alviarin paralyzing the Amyrlin, they could have had someone just open the Waygate, and bring in 50 or so Dreadlords to help the Black sisters keep it open. With Alviarin keeping the city's defenses from reacting, they could have established enough of a presence to wipe out the city from the inside. They'd have broken the Tower, without meaningful losses on their part. Raze the city. Level the Tower. Leave Tar Valon a smoking ruin, with only rumors of how the army even GOT there. It would have caused absolute hysteria, and fractured the Salidar faction between those so scared they ran to Rand, and those who were still so Aes Sedai that they wouldn't be able to submit. It probably would have gotten Egwene deposed, since they only raised her to have someone to go against Elaida, and with that war over, her reign of fiat would have ended. Romanda and Lelaine would never have let her stay Amyrlin and take the war to the Shadow, especially after the Tower was destroyed.

 

 

Now the rebels are there, adding over 1500 to the number of channelers close enough to respond. The large number of novices can serve as strength for linked circles, something which they have practiced. The rebels have decisive leadership, in Egwene, or even in Romanda and Lelaine by comparison to Elaida. Many more thousand soldiers, under a great captain, are there.

 

It would leave 800 sisters alive. It would drive all the remaining factions of the light together, and because of the prematurity those factions would actually have time for that unification.

 

Those eight hundred sisters would be alive without their stronghold, without the city that defined them. If you think they would all throw up their hands an say "OK, lets all meekly follow the al'Thor boy now" then you're not being very realistic. They would shatter. They're only held together by the idea of retaking the Tower.

 

I'm sorry, thats the third time you've tried to link my argument to the suggestion that the Shadow wants land...

 

You keep talking about "defeat" rather than "slaughter". Whats the difference, if not a concern for aquiring territory.

 

You're saying the Shadow feels compelled to TAKE Tar Valon. That denotes taking the land. For just killing Aes Sedai, they can do more damage attacking them in the open, rather than attacking a fortification.

 

So you find it easier for RJ to bring in Sharans then to have 300 blacks?

 

Um ... yeah! All he has to say is "The Ayyad have been Darkfriend-ridden all along." Given their governing practices, that doesn't seem to be much of a stretch.

 

And the Kin never asserted that they had no Darkfriends.

 

That is true. It also doesn't alter the point I was making.

 

If they want victory they have it with little effort.

 

I completely disagree with that. I don't think victory at Tar Valon is theirs for the taking with "little effort".

 

And if they dont want to make that effort, well give it to Demandred. And he'll put in that effort.

 

Assuming he's given sufficient resources. Moridin isn't going to throw everything he's got at Tar Valon. He won't even throw the majority of what he's got there. He'll probably give Demandred enough to make trouble, and no more.

 

Moridin: I want you to invade Tar Valon.

 

Demandred: Oh... um, ok. But why.

 

Moridin: I roled a dice. Had to begin somewhere, this works as well as the next dump heap.

 

Demandred: Ok... well, um. Might be cool to have the Black Ajah on side. And some darkfriends near the gates or soemthing. I hear their fortifications are pretty insane. Might even send a few more in.

 

Moridin: Dude! Your messing up my buzz. You think i channel the True Power for the edgy occular look?

 

Demandred: Do i have free reign?

 

Moridin: Meh. Just make sure lots of people die.

 

Demandred: Well i need to get inside the walls then, otherwise they just bottle us up. Hey wait, didn't Tai--er--Sammael manage to get one hundred thousand trollocs through the Ways? That could be cool.

 

Moridin: Al'thor's been having them warded.

 

Demandred: Well Mesaana could surely spin a hole through that. Or maybe ill have her train one of those idiot childrean up a bit. Might include some reversin too, for the sabotage. I suppose its a dance between training them too much, and success.

 

Moridin: Do what you have to to make the body-count as high as possible.

 

Demandred: Well i could--

 

Moridin: Demandred, do you want to be buggered by Shaidar Haren? No? Then get the hell out of my office.

 

Again, funny. And I have no problem with that, except the part where Demandred gets all the resources he wants. I don't think he will, and if he objects, Moridin will fast forward to the buggering part.

 

Moridin is motivated by the need to free the Dark One, and if RJ wants that to mean motivated to defeat the light, it will.

 

Ah, but we don't know what RJ wants it to mean. We don't know what will get Shai'tan out. And depending on the answer, Moridin will give different orders. If it is generalized death, then Moridin will use most of his resources against easier targets than Tar Valon. If it is just time, then Moridin will use military actions as a distraction to delay Rand.

 

Propose an alternate means of getting Shai'tan out, in which actually taking Tar Valon is important (not just damaging the Aes Sedai), and I'll certainly reconsider my position.

 

What I'm asking is, how does taking Tar Valon specifically help free Shai'tan? The Aes Sedai are no longer the most powerful or most populous group of channelers in the land. What they have is a great city-fortress that makes killing them more costly than striking other groups.

 

And before you go on about the Black Ajah, do you think there are no Darkfriend Wise Ones? No Darkfriend sul'dam? No Darkfriend Windfinders? Why wouldn't there be? Are those people inherently more altruistic, or less greedy?

 

So then, the Shadow should have the same advantage of betrayal anywhere they strike. What they won't have to contend with elsewhere is the best fortified city in the world.

 

How, precisely, will the Aes Sedai deal with a surprise inverted assault at one of the gates at a crucial moment of repulsing a Trolloc assault?

 

You're assuming the Black Ajah knows how to invert weaves. I still don't remember them learning that.

 

Actually, though, you've touched on what I think would be a much better plan for the Shadow. Since the Forsaken can conceal both their ability to channel and reverse their weaves, Moridin should order Mesaana, Cyndane, Moghedien, and Halima to go to the Tower, and using those skills, kill all the Aes Sedai. Mesaana can surely secure some sa'sangreal, or at least angreal. Those four, using those skills, could wreak sheer havoc. It would be a regular Night of the Long Knives. The Aes Sedai wouldn't even know who was killing them. Anyone who saw them -poof- dead. Whats anyone going to do? Start at the bottom and work your way up. They would do for at least a couple hundred that way, and all the Tower's novices and Accepted. If they did that as a prelude, and then hit the Tower, they'd have a chance.

 

But they won't.

 

They're not that smart, apparently.

 

But any threat to that victory... any at all....

 

I asuume you mean victory as they percieve it. And in that case ... what? What will they do? Tell on Moridin?

 

Demandred: "Um, Great Lord, I don't think your chosen Nae'blis is trying very hard ... "

 

Shai'tan: "OBEY HIS COMMANDS"

 

Turn to the Light? How will they get immortality then?

 

Depose Moridin? He's as powerful in himself as any of them, and is the only one who can use the True Power now. He apparently has Shaidar Haran's support, and Shaidar Haran is apparently more than a match for any of them, or more than one of them. He has Cyndane's and Moghedien's enforced loyalty. Mesaana and Halima would probably piss themselves if Shaidar Haran frowned or touched his belt. That leaves only Demandred and Graendal, and there's no love lost there. None of them are strong enough to challenge him alone, and there isn't an alliance that any of them can work out now. I have a feeling that Moridin or Shaidar Haran can countermand their orders with Shadowspawn. And I guarantee Moridin has his own agents and informants among the Darkfriends in each one's faction.

 

What can they really do? As long as Shai'tan supports him, he's basically untouchable.

 

Name one, including how exactly the shadow will bring it about, and with reference to the presense of consideration for the overall war with the light.

 

When I spoke of less risky options, I meant in dealing with Tar Valon alone. In the overall war, I don't see any military solution working for them. There is too much arrayed against them, even if they have 5 times the number of channelers I think they do.

 

Thats the whole reason why I think Moridin is planning a non-military victory, and any overt military action is either a distraction or the result of the Shadow's failure.

 

Victory for the shadow at Tar Valon, stopped only through the intervention of Rand and Tuon.

 

I don't think Demandred's best is enough, with or without Rand popping in to save the day, because I think he won't have all the resources that you think he'll have.

 

Well your right, i cant find a specific quote... though in truth i didn't look to hard. I don't really see this as being a contestable issue.

 

So, its that way because you say it is? You may not have looked hard, but I did. Only the Shining Walls and the Tower itself and referenced as being reinorced with the Power. Ogier built the bridges out of regular stone.

 

Seriously... you really contest this? That given the length and fraility that it wasn't made with the power? They arch half a mile, unsupported, Robert.

 

Actually, they're all over a mile long. Where does it say they're unsupported? You're describing Whitebridge.

 

Seriously, anyone smart enough to build a fotress like Tar Valon can't be dumb enough to not leave themselves a way to knock down the bridges. Its one of the most basic tenets of fortification.

 

Yes, i am saying that a sa'angreal will not be successful.

 

So, it can "crumple the walls of Tar Valon" (TDR ch 18) but it can't take out the bridges one at a time? I'm not making this stuff up, its in the book.

 

She pulled it out. It was needed, and she used it.

 

Right. Elaida doesn't think its needed, because

 

1) Shes a radish, and

 

2) There's no great rush. Supplies are still getting in, and there are no Trollocs at the gate.

 

Um... yes, they have been acting very co-operatively. They're Reds. They get along, and they support Elaida. This is stated. I'm sorry... your sarcasm seems to imply you disagree. A chapter where the Red Ajah turns on each other, perhaps?

 

One, you're ignoring the part where I brought up the fact that carefully dismantling something is very different from knocking it over. Two, the current Highest of the Red Ajah hates Elaida's guts, and there are a number of Red sisters who agree with her. There is alot of space between "working together" and "turning on each other". In KoD, chapter 25, Tarna's POV, we read:

 

"They knew the necessity of the work, however much they might resent it - no sister could like having to labor in that fashion; the Reds doing most of it certainly grumbled enough - but the order had come from Elaida, and these days, that resulted in foot-dragging."

 

So yes, even the Reds aren't happy with her, or working at their best.

 

All of which is actually irrelevant. The kind of work needed to take a tower apart while keeping the stones intact is completely different than the kind of work needed to blow something up. What you're asserting is like saying that since cannon wouldn't help you remodel your kitchen, it must not be able help you blow up your wood deck.

 

Done. I feel content, how bout you?

 

Yep. Very content. I quoted the books twice to support my assertion. :D

 

Your issues with darkfriend numbers have no basis in the story, and are therefore hard to challange.

 

How about the basis of "we've never SEEN them in the story"? We get Forsaken coffee hour, but no glimpse of 12,000 channelers? Talk about Deus Ex Machina.

 

"Here come the Trollocs ... and ... 12,000 channelers that no one knew about?"

 

There are others, especially in the Trolloc Assault part, but im tired of this.

 

Me too. We obviously disagree, and have very different views of what the Shadow has done, and will do. I guess we'll have to see what happens.

[Guest Anonymous!]

Cloglord, excellent analysis above.

 

I have been watching this thread for some time, and the discussion seems to have gotten bogged down in a discussion about one possible offesnive. I am going to throw a new bone into the mix.

 

First off, I don't think the Shadow is going to attack the White Tower. It appears, from KoD, that the Shadow wants the White Tower weak for the Final Battle, and if Egwene unifies it, I could picture the Shadow making an attempt to destroy it. So it is possible and worth some thought, and here is my "If it does happen here is how I would do it."

 

As mentioned above, there are 6 bridges in the city, two harbors and really strong walls everywhere else. I think RobertAlexWillis mentioned one of the maxims of building a fortification, and he was correct. One of the maxims of attacking a fortification is to attack the fortifications weakest point.

 

We know the Waygate is probably that weakest point, and Luckers was very wise for pointing it out, but like many have pointed out the waygate is a very narrow passage or a defile. If someone thinks to guard the waygate, it could get very messy for the trollocs very quickly. Plus, the Aes Sedai can use gateways to transport troops to the waygate so any foothold could be hit with six gateways with ten's of thousands of troops and 100's of channelers attacking it. Would an initial assault work? yeah probably, but I don't think they could sustain it for very long (minutes, maybe hours, but that's it at the most).

 

That means we should try to attack the Harbors. The city wall terminates at what appears to be two towers on either side of the mouth of the harbor, and the inner harbor has never been mentioned as being fortified. That means you have a 1000 meter (Using scale on Tar Valon Map) wide opening at the North Harbor and South Harbor in the city defenses. But Jordan has been hammering home how pointless an attack on the harbors are as long as the harbor can be blocked. So the Harbors can't be used, right?

 

Which leaves us with the gate, and that will get very nasty, since the gates and walls are power reinforced. The defenders can just hammer any offensive made against the gates with arrows, and the One Power, and all the attackers can do is get killed while trying to move siege engines and ladders into position. Dreadlords, the Black Ajah, and Black Asha'man can make it more complicated but the end will still be the same. Defeat.

 

So that leaves us with: The Harbors. Huh? But I just said that any attack on the harbors would be futile. There is one underlying assumption in all of the previous arguments about attacking the Harbor. They are assuming I will attack the unfortified harbors by water.

 

I'm stealing from Alexander the Great here. You see the Phoenician city of Tyre was an island, and Alexander did not have a navy capable of assaulting the city. So he built a massive causeway (200 ft wide) capable of moving his siege engines and army from the shore to the walls of the city. The Phoenician navy and the city defenders spoiled these attempts just before it was complete. Eventually, Alexander got a navy capable of taking the city.

 

So I propose the Shadow should create a land bridge to the north harbor. I know what you are thinking, surely the city defenders and Aes Sedai will destroy any causeway while the Trollocs are constructing it, especially once they are inside the towers protecting the mouth of the harbors. The answer lies only miles from Tar Valon ... the Dragonmount. The most powerful channeler in the Age of Legends created that mountain. The mountain stands thousands of feet in the air and diverted the river Erinin miles from its original course 3000+ years ago. The Shadow has the second most powerful channeler in the Age of Legends, Demandred. So is it reasonable to assume that he could channel much less of the One Power to raise the river floor 100 feet (or however deep the river is) to create a land bridge to one of the harbors. Essentially he would be creating a hill centered in the river between North Harbor and one of the shores, which would move the river to one side of the city. I think its reasonable. If they extend the land bridge from the west bank by the North Harbor, the land bridge needs to be less than 1 mile to reach the outer wall, and another mile to fill the North Harbor completely with earth.

 

The reason this will work is that no one in the city will know what is happening until the ground begins to appear above the surface of the water. The rumbling of the ground will be felt by everyone in the region and since there will be no visible sign of the ground shifting the Tar Valon leaders will be at a loss. They may notice the change in the river current, but the cause of which will not be very apparent, since no Aes Sedai could detect a man channeling, unless they wrap him in that new weave from KoD.

 

If they coincide the attack with 6 simultaneous attacks on the bridges and a raid through the waygate, the defenders will certainly not be paying attention to what is happening with the river. The 3 gates on the East Side of the river may notice a rise in the river level and a flooding of the towns on the Eastern shore, but they will be obscured by the city to see what is happening. In fact the only gate that would see what is happening is the Jualdhe Gate and it is located more than 3.75 miles from the North Harbor. I guarantee that none of the defenders will be looking that far up river. The Darien and Alindaer gates would be obscured by the city and the only indication they would have that something is going on is that the river has suddenly dried up.

 

The distance the Trollocs, Myrddraal, mounted Dreadlords, mounted Black Ajah, and mounted Black Asha'man would have to travel is just shy of 2 miles which they could cover in 4 minutes. 4 minutes and they are in the city. The opening is 1000 meters wide, and assuming a trolloc is less 2 meters wide you could theorectically fit a column 500 trollocs wide through that space. Assuming a the spacing of the column is 3 meters for each trolloc, and they are running at 35 mph, they would be pouring into the city at a rate of ~2500 trollocs per second. I don't think it will be this high, its just a theoretical high.

 

So my order of battle would go something like this, assuming I have 1,000,000 Shadowspawn, and 100 channlers to work with.

 

First, I would make a total of 7 demonstrations. 1 demonstration on each of the gates, and on demonstration on the waygate. Each bridge detachment will have about 50,000 trollocs and a few male and female channelers. The way gate detachment will have about 1,000-2,000 trollocs no channelers. Force Size: 301,000 shadowspawn, 60 Black Asha'man/Dreadlords.

 

Second, the male channeler will gateway to the top of the Dragonmount and begin creating a "hill" beneath the river northwest of the North Harbor. He will start this process as soon as the attacks on the bridges start. I want him far out of sight so he can't be attacked. Force size: 1 Black Asha'man/Dreadlord.

 

Third, move my army into position and have the "hill" completed as soon as the head of the column is at the river. Have them charge across the newly formed hill, and split up into the city streets. Use the trollocs as cannon fodder for Aes Sedai, and use the channelers to kill the Aes Sedai while they are distracted with the Trollocs. Force size: 400,000 trollocs, 40 male and female channelers, preferably linked 1 to 1.

 

Fourth, hold another 180,000 in reserve, divided at each of the bridge demonstrations in case one of the assaults should falter. The reserve on the East Side of the river would have to be stationed on high ground because of flooding. If high ground can't be found then that particular bridge won't have a reserve. Possibly have a small detachment assault the South Harbor in a boat attack though the swirling current resulting from the new river flow my be too dangerous. Have the last 100,000 as a rear-guard, posted near the North Harbor to support the main assault.

 

Will this work? I don't know, but its how I would do it. It's a little complicated, but with each detachment operating so far away from each other I severely doubt orders will get crossed up. One major issue could be wet terrain slowing down the assault into North Harbor. Maybe I will have my dreadlords/black Asha'man channel some heat to dry out the ground. I don't know, I'd leave it up to my commander in charge of that detachment.

 

I might have a good portion of my reserve posted at one of the West Bridges to make the Tar Valon forces think that is the objective of the assault. But this may focus too many eyes on the receding shoreline.

 

Essentially you can take many different approaches to this attack. The gist is to have so many reports feeding into Tar Valon leadership of "The Alindaer gate is under attack!", "The Osenrein Gate is under attakc!", "The Waygate has trollocs pouring through it!", "Earthquakes are being felt in every part of the city!" etc., that they won't notice the reports about the Eastern shore appears to be flooding, and the Western shoreline is receding.

 

Also you are hoping to spread out the Tar Valon Defenders far enough apart so they can't defend the massive gaping hole that is the North Harbor.

 

Alindaer Gate to North Harbor: 7.67 Miles

Osenrein Gate to North Harbor: 7.58 Miles

Luagde Gate to North Harbor: 3.33 Miles

Jualde Gate to North Harbor: 3.83 Miles

Dairien Gate to North Harbor: 5.92 miles

Daghain Gate to North Harbor: 5.75 miles

Outer Wall of Ogier Stedding to North Harbor: 7.25 Miles

 

The amount of time it will take to send dispatches to each of the other gates and re-direct forces in the midst of an attack on each gate to the North Harbor, should be more than 4 minutes. Plus they will not be defending a wall, but they will be fighting in the streets where the Aes Sedai line of sight will be greatly diminished, and there is a greater chance of an on-rushing Trolloc horde can get to her before she can kill them all.

 

Well, that's it. Have fun ripping it apart.

[Guest Barmacral]

Its true, Dragonmount was created by the most powerful channeler in the AoL, he also did so by drawing on so much more power than he could handle that he died in the process. He made the mountain by channeling all of that power into one lightning strike that drove itself so deep into the ground as to cause the layers of the earth to explode, and drive the lava into the air.

 

Demandred would need one of two things to make this land bridge:

1. A Sa'Angreal- No angreal is going to be strong enough to help make the bridge, and he isn't going to overdraw the power like Lews Therin did. He does not have a sa'angreal.

2. A large circle- This he can do, making a circle with at least 20 strong channelers. Of course he needs a woman to make the circle, and to pass control over to him, and who in the shadow trusts anyone enough to do that? Also, this means that he'll likely be using Saidar as well as Saidin, which defeats the point of taking the attention away from there. Finally, this also takes away Channelers that are required to fight at the bridges, so that the attacks don't get slaughtered immediately.

 

That said, I think the land bridge idea is really cool, and I wouldn't complain if RJ managed to swing it somehow. However, I just don't think it could be done nearly so easily as you make it out to be.

[Luckers]

I'm not going to take part in this debate anymore, it's gotten too bogged down in manipulating details, rather like the Asmodean debate, and its not really fun anymore. I would like to make one point though.

 

First off, I don't think the Shadow is going to attack the White Tower. It appears, from KoD, that the Shadow wants the White Tower weak for the Final Battle, and if Egwene unifies it, I could picture the Shadow making an attempt to destroy it. So it is possible and worth some thought, and here is my "If it does happen here is how I would do it."

 

This is the Last Battle we are talking about, the opening steps of it, anyway. This is what the Shadow has been working at weakening the Light for. So whats the next step?

[RobertAlexWillis]

So whats the next step?

 

Spring Shai'tan. Since we don't know what that takes, its very hard to anticipate their strategy. Thats why alot of very reasonable people disagree here.

 

Unlike the Asmodean debate, where everything has already occurred, and some people just can't see the forest because they rammed their head into a tree.

[Luckers]

True, but i meant in reguards to the stability of the light.