The Shadow comes to Tar Valon ..... and does what?

[RobertAlexWillis]

The tower guard is likely rife with darkfriends. Likely on the same scale that the royal guards in Andor were under Ravhin. You only need to recall Messanna's repeated attempts, through Alviarin, to induce Elaida to increase recruiting.

 

There's no evidence that there are that many militarily able Darkfriends to recruit. And the increase of the army serves a purpose for Mesaana whether they're full of Darkfriends or not. It increases the division within the Tower, and the likelihood of open conflict between the Tower and the rebels. Chubain himself might be a Darkfriend (although he doesn't have to be) but I doubt that even a significant portion of his troops are. There just aren't that many human Darkfriends around. The Royal Guard of Andor is a much, much smaller group, and easier to change. Also, Gaebril ruled Caemlyn openly. Those are very different situations.

[Luckers]

Robert, i understand your position better now, and see the logic in it, but i still find it unlikely. And even if it is the case victory at Tar Valon would be preferable.

 

Quote:

Do you think they would not question him if he did not act against Tar Valon given the extreme tactical advantage they face.

 

 

I don't personally think Moridin is trying to stay popular ... he can just say "Shai'tan commands".

 

I disagree. The Shadow has much to loose should the Forsaken learn of the planned End Game. Moreover in the Age of Legends the Shadow pursuid an active, intelligent, purerly human military campeign, showing that irrespective of the End Game, fighting the war is important to the shadow.

 

Quote:

Seriously, it is a besieging generals wet dream.

 

 

True. But what you're proposing isn't a siege, its an assault. Big, big difference.

 

If the Shadow lays siege to Tar Valon, that would make sense. Ring them in, isolate them, and devastate the countries around them. Eventually, they'll have to come out and face you on your terms. As to being outnumbered, even 10 to 1, well, Tar Valon as a fortified city is more than strong enough to hold out against those odds, with purely non-channeling defenders. Taking a fortified city by storm is costly. Without a lengthy siege (which was Bryne's plan) that cuts off supplies, fortified positions like that can withstand 15 or 20 to 1 odds. Even granting that Trollocs may be more effective en mass than humans at storming a place, Tar Valon can handle 10 to 1.

 

I disagree. Tar Valon is weak, it has insurgents inside its walls, and the Waygate represents easy access. I cannot handle 10 to 1 odds, and it wont be as costly as you seem to think. The invading army has the numbers to maintain constant unhesitating assault. They can overwhelm their enemies in a matter of days. Hours should the darkfriends within manage to open any of the gates.

 

Secondly, that plan you suggest seems foolish to me. Oh, sure, if Demandred had any reasonable expectation that he could lure the Aes Sedai into an open confrontation, then he would have an advantage. But do you see Bryne doing that? Because i do not see why he would have to 'eventually come out and face Demandred on his terms'.

 

If the Shadowspawn merely besieged this city this is what Bryne would do, he would use gateways to launch quick raids inflicting heavy casualties with few losses. He would remain inside the city venturing out only when the assault plan favoured them, and would stay only so long as it did. And Egwene would send word immediately to Rand.

 

Demandred would know this. This battle is not taking place in a vacuum, and Rand would come to Egwene's aid eventually. Moreover such a plan would completely invalidate the use of darkfriends, which is a MASSIVE tactical advantage.

 

So no, such a siege would not be profitible. You seem stuck on two things... one, the idea that a general would not assault a city like Tar Valon because of its defensibility. This is invalidated by the situation, with darkfriends within and waygates, not to mention a third hostile force within the heart of the city, and an enemy that is already tired from fighting them. You hit such a city hard and fast, with your insurgents striking at the same time at gates all over the city, and you will overwhelm your enemy. The second is this idea that Demandred would not take part in a battle that did not have victory assured with no losses. No battle is that way, and expecting Demandred to think that his enemies would set themselves up in such a position strikes me as unlikely.

[Luckers]

As for time, cloglord, your right. There is a problem. Based on Interulde's comments in KoD we can estimate that it is roughly 800 miles from Fal Moran to Tar Valon. And it is 1600 miles from Worlds End to Fal Moran. Lan begins his trek roughly 5 days (citing the arrival of Logain, the dispatching of Bashere, and the return of Bashere) after the cleansing, the night of Egwene's dinner with Elaida is roughly 21 days after the Cleansing (citing Akkarin's expedition, and the progression of days laid out in Egwene's chapters), and if my suspicions are correct the Trolloc force should arrive somewhere between 5 to 10 days after that. So between 26 and 31 days after the Cleansing, and 21 to 26 days after Lan began his trek from World's End.

 

Thats actually impossible, no war horse can travel more then 30 miles in a day, and survive. In face it should be much less especially with Lan gathering forces as he goes... even if he simply rides through and they join, no comments, it would slow him.

 

So yes, a problem. On the other hand a Trolloc force can move one hundred miles in a day, indicating that theoretically they could make Tar Valon in eight days from leaving the gap.

 

Now i suggested Lan being involved because it was Romantic, perhaps i was wrong, perhaps he arrives in Shienar to find it a wasteland, its population wiped out. That would do a good job of showing the threat of Tarmon Gai'don as well. It might even make the book more interesting. Lan arrives in Shienar to find it destroyed, the Trollocs gone to the south. One chapter. Short, sharp, powerful, and sets up for the assault on Tar Valon. Lan races after, naturally.

 

Alternatively in KoD we see Tuon cover 700 miles in the space between one chapter and the next. RJ has shown himself not undisposed to skip if need be.

 

If we assume that it will take Lan a month to get from world's end to Tarwin's Gap, and another month for him to fight his delaying manuevers all the way back to Tar Valon, you are taking the unpopular view that it will take nearly 2 months to resolve the series to the point that you mark as the midpoint of aMoL. 2 Months more than has been covered in the last few books, yet you plan for RJ to have accomplished 2 months in half a book.

 

Well, no, im not. By the end of KoD Lan has been on the road for at least 16 days already. He's likely somewhere in Arafel. And thats if RJ doesn't use poetic liscence, like he did with Tuon. Tuon left Mat roughly two weeks after the Cleansing (twenty days, as their weeks go) Her trip back would have taken 23 days. That means that when we see Suroth deposed at the end of KoD its roughly 43 days after the Cleansing, it means that the last we see Tuon it has been 25 days since Rand fought Semirhage. 19 days since we last saw Egwene, Somewhere around 20 days since Perrin, and maybe 15 since we last saw Mat.

 

The timelines are not in sync.

[phlpr23]

Thats actually impossible, no war horse can travel more then 30 miles in a day, and survive.

 

- I don't know about the distances you said. The Band's ideal distance per day I believe is quoted as 25 leagues, and when Manetheren was about to go down, the original Band traveled 60 some leagues in 2 days and then went into direct fighing. This is done with two armies without using horses. I could very easily be off on these statistics, but I'm just making the point that distance in Randland is really pretty subjective. And I'm compairing leagues to miles, which are altogeather different values.

[Luckers]

Which is what i meant when i was addressing Tuon... RJ has been blurring the facts a little, and its not impossible for him to do it here.

 

Factually, horses are absurdly fragile creatures. You take a horse at more then a trot for more then an hour and it'll drop dead on you. The best pace is alternated trotting and walking, you trot for an hour, walk beside the horse for an hour. Neither pace is comfortable for the rider, but it will let you cover the greatest distance and still have a horse under you at the end. Depending on the horse the distance you can effect changes. For your average farm animal, like Bela, you'd get maybe 20 miles a day out of it. For a trained, wellbred horse the likes of which lords and ladies ride, you'd get about 30 miles. For a warhorse, you'd get somewhere between the two. It can be pushed to the pace mat describes, but without special and extensive training dont expect either horse or rider to get up again for a week after the first day.

 

Additionally horses have to be fed perhaps once every two hours for about and hour if they are grazing. If you have bought feed in feed bags, the length of feeding time is decreased, and the distance between feedings is increased... again it varies but about once every three hours for half an hour.

 

With a great deal of training this can be increased... messenger horses, and trained riders can make 100 miles in a day. But that horse then cannot be ridden for at least a week afterwards, because it will be lame. Thats what messenger relays were... places where you could change your horse. Being a messenger was actually an insane job... its why the establishment of a good postal service is the corner-stone of establishing empires... that and making roads, just look at the Romans.

 

But, as i said, this is a fantasy text, and if RJ wants to smudge the details a little for the sake of the narative im not going to complain. As long as he doesn't do it too obviously. Like, and Lan set out on monday. On tuesday he arrived in Fal Moran with fifty thousand men.

[RobertAlexWillis]

Waygate represents easy access.

 

This seems to be the crux of our disagreement. There are just too many ways to shut off a Waygate, or block it, or clog it, or turn it into a deathtrap. It might be access, but even with Elaida in charge, its still not "easy" access. Militarily, there is no more costly space than a bottleneck. Thats why 300 Spartans (ok and about 5000 Theban, Phocian, Thespian, and other Greek volunteers) held the pass at Thermopylae until they were flanked. The pass at Thermopylae was assaulted by close to 100,000 Persians (the army was much bigger, but the middle and rear elements could not engage because of the terrain). And the pass at Thermopylae was a broad highway by comparison to a Waygate. No time-space dilation making exits awkward, no removing Avendesora leaves to lock it, no wardings to kill Shadowspawn. Thats why I say that only Elaida's radishness gets any meaningful number of Trollocs through the Waygate. If anyone marginally competent is even in the city, the Waygate can be plugged anytime before, and with a small push, for a considerable time after the Trollocs start coming through. It is not "easy" access.

 

The Shadow may have an Ephialtes in Alviarin, but there is no Anopaea for a Waygate.

 

 

 

For those of you who didn't get that sentence, look it up. It'll be educational. Let me also put in a plug here for "Thermopylae: The Battle that Changed the World" by Paul Cartledge. Good reading. If you feel you must see "300", at least read it to find out the fact behind that farce.

[cloglord]

Luckers, so you are alright with RJ smudging the facts about travel time, but not the reliability of carrier pigeons?

 

We have already had the discussion about how much time it would take for Lan to make it to Tarwin's gap in relation to many other factors that need to also occur prior to the end of the book. I'll try and find that thread and post it into your Lan to Tarwin's gap thread.

 

I am a historian who works with horses for a living, and the average walking/working speed of a horse is about 2 miles/hour. 30 miles in a day are perfectly doable.

[Beckon]

You said radish again. :mrgreen:

 

I agree that even with Elaida do'Avriny a'Radish (pretty good huh? I'm quite proud of it)in charge the Waygates are very defensible. Elaida is not going to be commanding the soldiers so even absent wardings, once it comes to someone's attention that Trollocs seem to be coming from the grove the Shadow will find it's progress severely impeded there.

[Wanderer]

Militarily, there is no more costly space than a bottleneck. Thats why 300 Spartans (ok and about 5000 Theban, Phocian, Thespian, and other Greek volunteers) held the pass at Thermopylae until they were flanked. The pass at Thermopylae was assaulted by close to 100,000 Persians (the army was much bigger, but the middle and rear elements could not engage because of the terrain). And the pass at Thermopylae was a broad highway by comparison to a Waygate. Thats why I say that only Elaida's radishness gets any meaningful number of Trollocs through the Waygate. If anyone marginally competent is even in the city, the Waygate can be plugged anytime before. It is not "easy" access.

 

The Shadow may have an Ephialtes in Alviarin, but there is no Anopaea for a Waygate.

 

Nice analogy. The situations are really the same and as you say passing trough a waygate is much more difficult than passing trough a small pass like the Thermopylae,I've studied it and I've even been there: any sister defending the waygate doesn't have to guard herself from arrows from the sky or multiple kinds of attacks like siege devices, nothing that big can be carried in the Ways.

The movie is action inflationed but it gives a clear view of what a small force can do against a much greater ones if the land conformation is like a funnel.

I add that Siuan Sanche probably knew that Liandrin used the ways so she was aware that the Shadow is able to use them. Any wise ruler would put some kind of ward, especially on such a simple and small gate.

So again the only hope of the Shadow is Elaida.

[Beckon]

Luckers, so you are alright with RJ smudging the facts about travel time, but not the reliability of carrier pigeons?

 

Not that this is addressed to me or has anything to do with the topic at hand but Luckers isn't the only one who thinks you're going a bit overboard trying to read something into the failure of Moiraine's pigeons to arrive.

[Luckers]

Luckers, so you are alright with RJ smudging the facts about travel time, but not the reliability of carrier pigeons?

 

I am not alright with it, i will permit it if it advances the narative. Just as i will permit the pigeons falling to foul play, as i have said many, many times. And frankly grow tired of saying. However, without direct evidence of that foul play, the most likely factor is that the pigeons simply died. Its not unlikely. Its not even questionable.

 

This seems to be the crux of our disagreement. There are just too many ways to shut off a Waygate, or block it, or clog it, or turn it into a deathtrap. Thats why 300 Spartans (ok and about 5000 Theban, Phocian, Thespian, and other Greek volunteers) held the pass at Thermopylae until they were flanked. The pass at Thermopylae was assaulted by close to 100,000 Persians (the army was much bigger, but the middle and rear elements could not engage because of the terrain). And the pass at Thermopylae was a broad highway by comparison to a Waygate. No time-space dilation making exits awkward, no removing Avendesora leaves to lock it, no wardings to kill Shadowspawn. Thats why I say that only Elaida's radishness gets any meaningful number of Trollocs through the Waygate. If anyone marginally competent is even in the city, the Waygate can be plugged anytime before, and with a small push, for a considerable time after the Trollocs start coming through. It is not "easy" access.

 

No, this is not the crux of our disagreement. I too believe that those methods will be employed. The fact you seem to be ignoring is that those methods will be sabotaged. How exactly will this bottlneck you suggest occur in light of that? I dont see it.. and yes, i get that you made a reference to a historical moment that parallels that, and likely there is something very astute there to the educated, but i do not know anything about that particular moment in history... I do have a question though...

 

How exactly did the Spartans deal with over a hundred of their own channelers striking in surprise?

 

 

Ok,. i get it robert, you are looking for ways this can fail. And they are there. As with all plans... Egwene become Amyrlin in power needed only people to oppose her. Rand's conquest of illian needed only a travelling blocking shield. And this needs someone to block the waygate, someone to uncover the darkfriends, some one to stop sabotage, someone to defeat the ten to one odds... Plans work when RJ needs them too. If RJ goes with an attack at Tar Valon, the Waygate will be breached, becuae it raises the threat. And he has the situation backed with foreshadow. This one wouldnt even be a stretch.

[mègon]

I'll state this again, because the debate continues, and I haven't seen any debunking or even addressing of this issue.

 

The path to TV is warded inside the ways. We're already seen a whole bunch of shadow spawn contorted and dead along that path while we had scenes from inside the ways.

 

Unless these wards are somehow unraveled. I don't see anyone wanting to do this any time soon, even if MS is not acting normally.

 

So chances of the ways being used for a massive shadow spawn assault on TV in unlikely. It could be used for Darkfriend transport, but I don't see it happening with Shadowspawn.

[Beckon]

I'll state this again' date=' because the debate continues, and I haven't seen any debunking or even addressing of this issue.

 

The path to TV is warded inside the ways. We're already seen a whole bunch of shadow spawn contorted and dead along that path while we had scenes from inside the ways.

 

Unless these wards are somehow unraveled. I don't see anyone wanting to do this any time soon, even if MS is not acting normally.

 

So chances of the ways being used for a massive shadow spawn assault on TV in unlikely. It could be used for Darkfriend transport, but I don't see it happening with Shadowspawn.[/quote']

 

Certain kinds of wards need to be reset once they're tripped. I think that comes from Rand speculating on how Sammael might have Illian warded.

 

Also there was Rand's ward on the waygate in Shadar Logoth. I remember Rand wondering whether Sammael may have been able to unravel it without tripping it. If he was then it's also possible that some channeler will be able to find a ward and disable it before the trollocs come through.

[Guest Barmacral]

megon, I do believe that it was briefly commented on in one of the earlier posts.

[DemandredFO]

For Megon

A. It was in The Eye of the world at the beginning, only Ishamael, Aginor and Balthamel were free at this point and so the shadow wasn't fully coordinated yet.

B. As Beckon said maybe those wards are the kind that have to be reset. Maybe Ishamael decided to spare a few trollocs to trip the wards, knowing shortly that the WT would be distracted. Or possibly the knowledge of how to reset the wards had been lost or dissapeared by someone.

C. Unless they're being gatered at Shayol Goul I don't think 100,000 darkfriends are together anywhere.

D. Even if they are self-resetting Mesaana is in charge of the BA, taking her orders from Demandred. I am sure he will think to check the waygate to see if it's warded and have someone disable the wards if they exist.

Thats how I see it

[RobertAlexWillis]

How exactly did the Spartans deal with over a hundred of their own channelers striking in surprise?

 

Well for one, its a bad objection, since the Spartans didn't have channelers of their own. If they did, there are a number of ways they could have dealt with such a situation.

 

Also ....

 

You think there are a HUNDRED Black Ajah in the Tower?

 

You think the rest of the Tower won't notice a HUNDRED Black Sisters hanging around the Waygate?

 

What I'm saying is, that a Waygate is easy to block in alot of different ways (no pun intended). AND I'm also saying that the effectiveness of an assault on Tar Valon would HINGE on a VERY effective force emerging intact from the Waygate. A million Trollocs outside Tar Valon are essentially zero threat to the defenders. Hinging your entire plan on an event that can go wrong in alot of ways is not a good idea. All it takes is one smart Aes Sedai to remove the Avendesora leaves as soon as she hears the Trollocs are marching. Plenty of Aes Sedai know about the Shadow using the Ways now. Unless you think the Black Ajah has posted a guard around the Waygate, to preserve their chance for secret sabotage?

 

It COULD work. I just see alot MORE ways it could go horribly wrong (from the Shadow's perspective). And I honestly think both Demandred and Moridin would see them as well. From a purely military standpoint of conquest, there are better options. (Any engagement outside Tar Valon is better for the Shadow. Thats WHY people spend so much time on fortification. It works.) So again, it goes back to the objective of the person really in charge. If that person is A) interested in conquest MORE than carnage, assaulting Tar Valon is a bad plan. Besieging is is much better. (Thats why Artur Hawkwing besieged it.) However, if that person is B) interested in carnage MORE than conquest, then its a no lose situation. They assault and win or lose, lots of people die, and the Aes Sedai are tied up.

 

I think Demandred is A, but he's taking orders from people who are B (if you can really call Shai'tan a person). Which means that in practice, we're predicting the same thing. Even the same outcome. Just different motives.

[Guest Barmacral]

Trollocs outside being nearly zero threat to the defenders? I think not.

 

This battle is gonna have possibly a million or more trollocs fighting. In that case so long as the shadow has sufficient channelers to Occupy the Light channelers, I could very well see the trollocs assaulting the city, storming the bridges. The bridges its generally agreed on are going to be extremely hard to destroy, and when you have a million trollocs trying to get into 8 different locations at once, some of them are bound to get through, and cause some damage. With those kinds of numbers the shadow can afford to throw away the forces required to break through a gate, and once thats done, the defenders will be sent reeling and doing their damnest to throw them back out of the city.

 

Indeed, this will take a lot of casualties for the shadow, and may not work, but I could see it happening. The waygate may be a major tactical point for the shadow to break into the city, but the shadow CAN come in through the bridges, so its not the only place to be concerned about. The trollocs outside will be just as much of a threat as the ones trying to get through the waygate.

[DemandredFO]

I could see the Black Ajah guarding the Waygate. I could see them going to Eliada saying we have learned that the Trollocs are using the Ways. We want to post guards and eliada going "yes, Yes, get out of my sight."

[cloglord]

This whole debate can be settled from the books.

 

In TSR Chapter 17 Siuan sends a dozen sisters and 1000 of the tower guards to recapture and gentle Mazrim Taim. When questioned about how wise it is to send so many of the guard with Valda just ouside the city, Siuan makes the comment that she has enough guards to hold the city and that Valda wouldn't attempt anything even if she left the gates unguarded, as he would suspect a trap.

 

In ACoS Prolouge, Elaida sends 50 sisters and another 200 of the tower guard after the black tower. Leaving the towerguard down 1200

 

We also know from AcoS Prolouge that Alviarin and Messanna are both very interested in increasing the size of the towerguard. Alviarin suggests it here, Messanna regrets that Elaida isn't more receptive, and later, once word of Dumai's wells arrives, it is ordered by Aliviarin, presumably on Messanna's orders. Clearly Messanna, possibly in league with Demandred, would see the benefit of stacking the towerguard full of badguys.

 

Now I know that Robert has a problem with the idea of a darkfriend towerguard, but I'd like to point out a few things. First with the guard down 1200 members, it should be fairly easy to plug in an influx of new guardsmen. Secondly, up until the siege Tarvalon was the hub of the north, and as such would have seen visitors from all over Randland, giving it a wide pool of possible darkleaning recruits. Thirdly, it is not strictly nessecary that every recruit be a signed and pledged DF. Chubain could just be recruiting hard men with loose morals. Men that could be pressured to do dark and terrible things by the right people, (The black Ajah,) or maybe people who are willing to do anything for the promise of gold and security. I would point to the sudden increase in arsons, and violent crimes that seem to be endemic throughout randland. I think that one effect of the DO breaking free is that he's making the marginally evil elements feel a little more dark and dastardly.

 

 

The last and most telling point however comes from the secret histories. In ACoS chapter 11 it is revealed from the secret histories that during the trolloc wars a part of the tower was actually plundered by dreadlords and trollocs. If they found a way in back then, how much more likely is it during TG?

 

Of course that doesn't explain how an avalanche of trollocs is going to manage the 700 mile march from Tarwin's Gap to Tar Valon within the scope of the last book................

[Luckers]

'll state this again, because the debate continues, and I haven't seen any debunking or even addressing of this issue.

 

The path to TV is warded inside the ways. We're already seen a whole bunch of shadow spawn contorted and dead along that path while we had scenes from inside the ways.

 

Unless these wards are somehow unraveled. I don't see anyone wanting to do this any time soon, even if MS is not acting normally.

 

So chances of the ways being used for a massive shadow spawn assault on TV in unlikely. It could be used for Darkfriend transport, but I don't see it happening with Shadowspawn.

 

This was addressed several times, wards can be unspun. It's difficult, but possible. Sammael did it in Shadar Logoth, Asmodean did it in Rhuidean. The Dark One did it simply by existing. Additionally, we only know that one of the bridges to Tar Valon was warded, and it was destroyed. We do not know if the other was. Moreover this wards were not made to destroy channelers, which is the reason we have seen channelers hesitate to take on wards before... around Callandor, around the Tower stores. So on.

 

Quote:

How exactly did the Spartans deal with over a hundred of their own channelers striking in surprise?

 

 

Well for one, its a bad objection, since the Spartans didn't have channelers of their own. If they did, there are a number of ways they could have dealt with such a situation.

 

Channelers they believed their allies? I just dont see how thats feasible. All that is needed is a momentary distraction. Ten minutes of confusion and you have a hundred trollocs amongst you, and it become impossible to bottleneck the waygate completely.

 

Again, i dont know anything about that example, but did the spartans have traitors? Did they manage to contain the bottleneck in spite of those traitors.

 

Ok, lets look at it... Lets say that everything works out the way you suggest. Egwene realises the threat from the ways, and sends 5000 soldiers to the Garden, and 300 warders (i doubt she would send that many of her forces, but lets say she is just really damned worried about this waygate). She also sends sisters. She has 400 Aes Sedai at this stage, with perhaps 20 out of action because they are running over all command, thats 380. Devided by nine that 42. I doubt she would send 42 sisters to guard the Waygate, but again, she's pretty worried. And she sends perhaps 90 novices to act as batteries. We'll even throw in a few Asha'men. I think no more then 5, but lets say 10. Would you concede that this is the extreme? That the force would likely be no larger? Oh, and Egwene herself wards the gate, and inverts it... personally i think that she wont ward it, im not really sure why, i just dont see it. And i think that if she did it would leave a much tinier force.

 

Ok. So they are arranged around this Waygate. Archers and crossbowmen, sisters in circles. A fairly solid defensive ring... in fact, impenatrable. They would clog that Waygate, bottleneck it with ease.

 

Only things dont go easy. First of all the dreadlords with the invading force (and i dont think suggesting that is unreasonable given the chance of the Waygate being locked, or wards, or just to lead. I'd guess about 20 of them, for a hundred thousand, but since were looking at the worst case scenario for this attack lets just say 5.) blow open the Gate. The explosion is massive, a complete surprise.

 

But these soldiers are well trained. They recover instantly. Raise bows, devide flows. Prepare. They are going to contain this Waygate.

 

Now, until now have i outfitted, and planned the Aes Sedai to a degree you think reasonable of army with one of the worlds most brilliant generals? I think the defence ive laid out is actually too strong, i doubt the city would man that defence on the Waygate, but are you content with that? Ok, now im going to concider the Shadow. Firstly ill lay out what i would do, but then ill lay out 'the shadow is being stupid' idea.

 

Were I in charge of the shadow i would have set up maybe 20 black sisters around the Grove, but if the shadow is stupid, maybe 5. After all their channelers ARE limited, but even just five is enough. Inverted Light to hide them, pre-woven and inverted lightning, and other destructive weaves, ones designed to cause the most chaos, explosions, and so forth. But even if the shadow is stupid, the attention of the defenders will be on the waygate, and the blacks do not need to be all that close. Simply sneaking up and hiding behind a tree, grabing the source and weaving deadly destruction from behind would work just as well.

 

When the Waygate was opened i would have them strike. Pre-woven and inverted webs do not even cause for the sensation of channeling. 20 Black sisters could have explosions occur through every rank of the defenders, even five is more then enough to turn the world to chaos, for a time. Likely kill half the defenders in a matter of minutes, including or especially sisters, if they are smart.

 

If the sisters in the circles start defending against you, start weaving brightly flashing lights, insane noises. Anything to keep them distracted. Overwhelmed, utterly disoriented. It would mean them sensing your channeling--even if the shadow was smart and taught you reversion--or even seeing your weaves. For all that sisters are trained to be able to act under presure and chaos, reacting to an unseen enemy whilst the ground is explosing around you is difficult. Even with the much larger numbers of defenders, it would take time to drive off the Black sisters. Likely a lot of time--we have seen weaker, and lesser number channelers fight openly against much stronger and more numbered channelers and hold their own for quite some time. Add invisibility, surprise, and constant explosions... how quickly could you gather your thoughts, and react. At best they instinctually start shielding themselves straight away, and begin fighting back in an unfocused manner. It would take ten minutes at the very quickest. And certainly there is no way you could be focused on containing the Waygate. Not enough of you to actually contain it.

 

If i were the shadows general i would have tried to have the sisters sent to guard the Ways have as many blacks as possible--even though i dont have as many channelers as the enemy, and would likely leave myself lacking elsewhere. The Waygate battle's success would result in a massive tactical advantage, after which i could redirect my channeling forces elsewhere and recover some of what was lost in the lull, and would then have a force of a hundred thousand trollocs inside the walls. It would win the city for me.

 

But even if that is beyond them, maybe they dont have control over who goes, or dont have enough black sisters easily accesed... the law of averages suggests that at least some of those sisters are darkfriends just as a function of random selection. Perhaps as many as nine (im going to address the hundred black sister question in a moment) If even one of those sisters gains control of the circle, and they would try, and likely succeed. Look at Elza.

 

Attacked from within and without the defense would shatter. Best case scenario for the shadow, complete chaos and loss of order, worst, it takes at least 10 minutes to drive off the black sisters (a time i find too short. Even with such circles... and almost a hundred fifty channelers, driving off other channelers, especially when you dont know where they are, takes some time). And i would have as many normal darkfriends nearby. Even if its no more then a hundred, being attacked from the city side would further divert attention, generate chaos, and forestall opposition for the invading trollocs.

 

And the warding? Even if it is there, have a black sister unspin it during the chaos. If they dont have the talent, send a forsaken, or at least a forsaken trained dreadlord. The shadow has been preparing this attack for over a year, they are sure to have thought of wardings... Or even just slice it with fire and spirit. It would be directed at shadowspawn anyway, and as long as you knew where the flows were (and given the size of a waygate, slashing around with a knife-weave would eventually find them). And thats all assuming that some black sister didn't see Egwene weave it.

 

Meanwhile the five to twenty dreadlords have come through the waygate, and are protecting her back, not joining the direct fighting yet though. Not need to draw unnessasary attention.

 

So, say it takes her five minutes to unweave the warding. Which i see as being too long, but whatever, and even if the light does drive back the Black sisters, and restore enough order to actually man a defence in ten. Thats five minutes of spare time. Even with the limited room, 2 trollocs can get out abrest. Running, in five minutes, a thousand trollocs could be out amongst the defenders. Causing even more chaos.

 

Now, even if at this stage the defenders have restored command, and are manning a full defence, which due to their channelers it powerful, the trollocs are amongst them, and more coming every second. Containment at that stage has failed. For every one trolloc they kill, 4 replace it. Any attempt to disrupt the flow out of the waygate with the power would be stopped, or at least quickly countered by the Dreadlords.

 

Any attempt at containment would be impossible. The defenders dont have the numbers to contain the trollocs, as they disapear into the Grove. Oh, thousands will dies at the hands of the channelers, but the dreadlords will blunt that at every stage.

 

Now, ive tried to play down the shadows strength as much as i can, and play up the lights, and still i find it hard to see the Light managing to contain that. Now what if instead of 100 darkfriends from the city, its 1000. What if the shadow sends a troup of human darkfriends through the ways, who burst out without waiting for the warding to go down. What if the shadow sends a 100 dreadlords through the ways instead of 5 or 20. What if several hundred draghkar attack from above, or 20 gray men are sent after the sisters. What if three or four Forsaken choose to join the attack.

 

And the light? I gave Egwene 400 Aes Sedai, in point of fact she would have 300, the other 100 would be darkfriends--and yes, i think one hundred. There were 500 sisters in Tar Valon between rebels and Tower, and i have no issue in believing that 1 in 5 of those sisters was a darkfriend. I actually think its closer to 1 in 3. But once again im trying to err on the side of caution.

 

And if Egwene doesn't choose to divert so many of her channlers--the one advantage she has over the army of the shadow, in terms of force numbers--to the waygate. What if she only places 5 sisters, and 50 novices. Or 10 novices. After all she has eight gates under assault elsewhere by up to 100,000 trollocs each. More. And only a 1000 soldiers? After all Egwene would have to be concerned that the Seanchan would take advantage of the situation, and send some of her channeling firepower to guard against that.

 

You have maintained that creating a bottleneck at the waygate would be so easy that any attack planned through the waygate would be foolish to the extreme. I just dont see it. The shadow needs a distraction for bare minutes and containment becomes impossible.

 

And, let me ask you this, assuming an attack is launched on Tar Valon by the shadow, do you think RJ will have a complete bottleneck occur at the Waygate? I mean, he clearly doesn't have to, a bottleneck would not be easy to maintain given channelers and darkfriends. It wouldn't be a batrayal of reality to do so. So would he... like, which situation do you think supports the narative and the drama?

 

You think there are a HUNDRED Black Ajah in the Tower?

 

You think the rest of the Tower won't notice a HUNDRED Black Sisters hanging around the Waygate?

 

Yes, i do think that, though nice capital-shock. Do you think it unlikely that at the very least 1 in 5 sisters are black? Remember Robert, i have your post elsewhere were you said me suggesting 1 in 3 was being conservative. The only reason i haven't suggested more blacks is that i think it likely that some at least were leashed.

 

As for the Tower noticing? I do think that it will be noticed. I commented on it in my Memory of Light plot. My pet idea is that Pevara notices Alviarin and Lelaine plotting (coz Lelaine is black... you know... coz she was mean to Suine and Faolain :D), but it could just simply be that Atuan or one of the others recieves orders to that effect.

 

Additionally i dont think the entire hundred will go to the Waygate. I believe that somewhere between 20 and 40. It depends on how much freedom the sisters have to move about. Certainly i think that for the Black sisters inside the tower, the Waygate represents the most intelligent point for the distribution of resources. The attacks on the walls have outside dreadlords to aid them, but getting a hundred thousand trollocs into the city seems a worthwhile use of strength, even if it means that the wall attacks come under more fire, and less reprisal.

 

Pevara will gather the sisters she can trust, which, assuming that all made it out of the tower unleashed, numbers 18. Its possible she may devide that force in two, and send some after other Black targets. They will arrive at around the five minute mark, possibly with more soldiers, join the battle, blunt the Black efforts. They will manage to reasser order, and lead a countre-attack. The will not manage to stop the incursion, but they will manage to contain it to the Grove.

 

Now i suppose you'll suggest that they arrive early, blow the Blacks surprise. Well, i dont see RJ having them do that, for one. But if they do, fighting 20 to 40 black sisters still allows for enough of a distraction to stop any chances of enacting the bottleneck.

 

What I'm saying is, that a Waygate is easy to block in alot of different ways (no pun intended). AND I'm also saying that the effectiveness of an assault on Tar Valon would HINGE on a VERY effective force emerging intact from the Waygate. A million Trollocs outside Tar Valon are essentially zero threat to the defenders. Hinging your entire plan on an event that can go wrong in alot of ways is not a good idea. All it takes is one smart Aes Sedai to remove the Avendesora leaves as soon as she hears the Trollocs are marching. Plenty of Aes Sedai know about the Shadow using the Ways now. Unless you think the Black Ajah has posted a guard around the Waygate, to preserve their chance for secret sabotage?

 

This isn't the hinge. It would present a massive tactical advantage if it succeeded and the chance of success is high, but if it fails? So what? I really dont see how you could possibly support the rest of that paragraph? How does the plan for the taking of Tar Valon hinge on needing a hundred thousand trollocs within the wall? Yes, it'd be really nifty, but there are a million trollocs out there. Not to mention how many darkfriends inside.

 

And a million trollocs present no danger at all? How on earth did you come to that conclusion? Robert, a city isn't magically immune to assault just because it has walls. Trollocs arn't going to sit down in front of them while the defenders pick them off. Even without the darkfriends inside the walls, which again and again you've ignored, a million trollocs present a danger. They can maintain sustained attacks on all eight bridge gates at the same moment with over 120,000 trollocs per gate.

 

Now, assuming some dreadlord doesn't manage to get in some lucky shot with balefire, or some equally destructive weave, and blow one of those gates sky high, the defenders could only hold for a little while anyway, no matter how high their walls.

 

But lets for the sake of argument look without the draghkar which would be attacking from the sky, without the darkfriends launching raids from within, without the kindly faced Sister you were relying on, blowing you, and everyone else above the gate, to kingdom come. Or the dreadlords doing something intelligent like focusing all their fire power at one gate and overwhelming the Aes Sedai before aid could come from another gate. Or without the dreadlords bringing in armies of darkfriends through gateways to launch internal attacks--i know you think there arnt armies of darkfriends, which i find strange... there were human armies at both the Trolloc Wars and the War of Power... are people now somehow better human beings?

 

But anyway, without all that.

 

The first day the majority of the trollocs wouldn't even reach the gates with Aes Sedai reigning fire down on them, and arrows. The second they would be dying at the foot of the gate. The third you would have ladders landing. Exhuastion and losses would beging than, whilst the shadowspawn could keep just throwing more and more at you, without stopping or slowing. How long before someone makes a mistake?

 

And once the mistakes begin, how long until the city falls? 2 days? 3? Now, lets include those things i took out. How long before a gate falls in light of those constant attacks, and black sisters suddenly blowing you up from within, dreadlords assaulting on masse, draghkar attacking from above and stopping you from firing arrows or lightning at the Trollocs that are running, ten abrest and a thousand ranks deep, towards you at twice the speed of a galloping horse and a whole bunch of ladders. How long, exactly, could anyone hold, no matter how high their walls, in light of that?

 

A hundred thousand trollocs inside city walls would be an extremely nice thing for the Shadow. It would likely reduce their losses to nearly zero. But without it the attack is far from hopeless. And no, before you say it, trolloc losses would be no reason not to attack. I might have been willing to concider that if the Shadow didn't have darkfriends within the walls, in which case overwhelming the defences would have taken longer, and cost more. My guess in that case would have been about a 500,000 trolloc fatalaties, which i would be willing to concider as an issue (though it still wouldn't make me dismiss it out of hand).

 

But with the traitors inside the city, i see that being cut down to around 200, 000 to 250,000, which i believe the shadow will concider acceptable losses. One Twenty-fifth the total trolloc population to remove Tar Valon?

 

It COULD work. I just see alot MORE ways it could go horribly wrong (from the Shadow's perspective). And I honestly think both Demandred and Moridin would see them as well. From a purely military standpoint of conquest, there are better options. (Any engagement outside Tar Valon is better for the Shadow. Thats WHY people spend so much time on fortification. It works.)

 

You mean like the Aes Sedai all going out, sitting down and getting drunk? I dont get it Robert, do you really think that Demandred and Moridin would expect their enemies to be fools? The situation at Tar Valon is so perfect its laughable. Do you think there has ever been case where a general could take such a powerful position with such ease? This is as good as it gets.

 

There are no better options--oh, perhaps if they were in a vacuum, and the Aes Sedai their only enemy, but the Aes Sedai are the least of their enemies, though they are not ignorable. Not taking advantage of this situation would be criminal for a mind planning the overall war against the light. It would give them time to strengthen themselves, remove the Black Ajah, ally with Rand more closely, and that would meaning having to fight both, together, when it came time to destroy either.

[cloglord]

Luckers, while I agree with you that 1,000,000 million trollocs would take Tar Valon in short order, I must disagree with you on a number of points.

 

The waygate scenario that you laid out is fraught with problems, not the least of which is that it would require a degree of communication that I do not believe if possible. FIrst of all, you would need to gather and array your group of BA defense saboteurs. Knowing what we know about the organization of the BA, only Alviarin knows who all of the BA are, and only she could send messages to them in such a manner as to get them to gather for such a specific purpose. That is assuming that things are far enough along that the BA no longer cares to preserve its secrecy by having a large number of BA sisters reveal themselves. Secondly, time works so much differently in the ways that it would be very difficult to time the BA diversion to the actual arrival your hypothetical trolloc and dreadlord hordes. Thirdly, an inverted shadowspawn killing ward would not be nessecarily instantly noticeable. The one that Rand put on the shadr logoth gate did not instantly kill, instead it gave the trollocs time to clear the gate before they died. Such a ward would be undetectable until well after the defenders were aware of a breach. Fourth, given the scenario you laid out with circles of defenders, how hard would it be for a smart circle leader to simply destroy the gate? A circle of thirteen could and has destroyed a waygate before. Lastly, it has been pointed out that at least one of the waybridges to tar valon was warded against shadowspawn, and that the triggering of said ward was sufficient to destroy the bridge. I find it very likely that if one of the bridges were warded, that they all were, and I find the idea that one of the forsaken would willingly step foot into the ways, given the dangers, to unward them, to be an unlikely one at best. Remeber the wards that protect Tar Valon proper are in some cases hundreds if not thousands of years old. Also we should remember that sufficiently nasty wards need not be inverted to give the forsaken pause. Rand didn't invert the wards on callanor at first, but no male forsaken felt like taking the risk of trying to unspin those wards.

 

I agree with you that Tar Valon would fall to a million trollocs, but for entirely different reasons. The BA and the questionable loyalty of the tower guards is sufficient to betray at least one gate to the trolloc hordes. I do not think that the ways will prove to be signifigant in this attack, should it occur.

 

I am still not convinved that the trollocs or the seanchan will hold any part of Tar Valon for any signifigant amount of time, indeed, I am dubious that the trollocs will even mount an attack on Tar Valon.

[RobertAlexWillis]

Ten minutes of confusion and you have a hundred trollocs amongst you, and it become impossible to bottleneck the waygate completely.

 

Thats just flat out not true. Any Aes Sedai can ward the Waygate behind the Trollocs that have already emerged, leaving the Trollocs in the city isolated and easily manageable. Or a quick non-channeler strike could cut them off from the Waygate and snatch out the Avendesora leaves. If Loial and Gaul could close the Waygate at Manetheren (which was apparently not unguarded), why do you think Gareth Bryne and 50,000 soldiers, or even some lietentant in charge of 500, couldn't do the same at Tar Valon? The Waygate can get cut off during a Trolloc assault as many ways as it can be cut off during a Trolloc assault. And unless the Black Ajah learned to invert or reverse their weaves, then the Tower Aes Sedai can feel and converge on their sabotage in much greater numbers. A beachead through the Waygate does NOT guarantee success. The Light can sabotage the Waygate to its benefit much more easily than the Shadow can sabotage it to theirs.

 

Channelers they believed their allies? I just dont see how thats feasible.

 

Given that logic, the Black Ajah is unassailable.

 

By the way, let me propose an alternate plan to the one you proposed. If they have any inkling beforehand that Trollocs are coming, TAKE OUT THE STUPID AVENDESORA LEAVES.

 

Thats why I think any leader who allows the Waygate to be used is a moron (or radish). They can solve an obvious leak (the ONLY obvious leak) in Tar Valon's defenses right now. It is almost inconceivable to me that at least SOME Aes Sedai don't know that the Shadow is using the Ways. Egwene certainly knows. Pull out two leaves, and its the most secure spot in the city.

 

So would he... like, which situation do you think supports the narative and the drama?

 

I haven't said it won't happen. I said its a bad plan IF they're actually concerned with owning real estate in Tar Valon.

 

Do you think it unlikely that at the very least 1 in 5 sisters are black?

 

Frankly, yes, I think that highly unlikely. But thats opinion.

 

Robert, a city isn't magically immune to assault just because it has walls.

 

Tar Valon isn't just "a city with walls". Its well-designed to be essentially impregnable. The walls completely encircle the island, rising right out of the water. Fortified positions with internal supply methods for food, water, and materiel regularly withstood ten and twenty to one odds in the real world, and Tar Valon is better fortified than any real city has ever been. Sieges weren't invented for fun. It would make sense for the Shadow to besiege Tar Valon, as I've already said.

 

The Trollocs do not have easy access to the walls. They either have to come down predictable assault routes (the bridges, assuming the vegetable in charge of the city doesn't destroy them. In military parlance those would be called "killzones"), or mount an amphibious assault (which would turn out the way Hitler imagined D-Day would turn out, resulting in "water pollution").

 

Do you think there has ever been case where a general could take such a powerful position with such ease? This is as good as it gets.

 

Thats about what Xerxes said as he pulled up to Thermopylae.

 

As to this:

 

Now, assuming some dreadlord doesn't manage to get in some lucky shot with balefire, or some equally destructive weave, and blow one of those gates sky high, the defenders could only hold for a little while anyway, no matter how high their walls.

 

I doubt anyone but the Forsaken can hit Tar Valon from across the river. Its pretty big. And the Shadow apparently has very, VERY few angreal, and no sa'angreal. Whereas Tar Valon is literally sitting on a stockpile. Rings of Aes Sedai could pummel the Shadow from across the river, but the Shadow isn't taking down their walls without getting much closer.

 

The walls of Tar Valon are Power reinforced, which should hold them up against most anything short of balefire, which I doubt is common knowledge even among the Dreadlords.

 

No. This is not easy or clean for the Shadow. If I'm in charge, I have alot of reservations.

[Guest Barmacral]

Egwene stated in one of her POV's that she could easily hit one of the boats that is in the middle of the river. I suspect that plenty of the dreadlords could manage that distance.

[Luckers]

FIrst of all, you would need to gather and array your group of BA defense saboteurs. Knowing what we know about the organization of the BA, only Alviarin knows who all of the BA are, and only she could send messages to them in such a manner as to get them to gather for such a specific purpose.FIrst of all, you would need to gather and array your group of BA defense saboteurs. Knowing what we know about the organization of the BA, only Alviarin knows who all of the BA are, and only she could send messages to them in such a manner as to get them to gather for such a specific purpose. That is assuming that things are far enough along that the BA no longer cares to preserve its secrecy by having a large number of BA sisters reveal themselves.

 

Well, a) Thats not an issue if the shadow planned this well. Which im not nessasarily saying they did... but they have had a year or more to think about it.

 

b) I actually addressed this. Alviarin will approach blacks more obviously, commanding them directly, which is why Pevara will pick up on it.

 

c) I do believe they will begin taking risks with openly communicating. This is supposed to be the end of the Tower. Not all the Black Sisters will reveal themselves, of course. It makes sense to leave twenty in hiding for a time, in case of a rainy day, but yes. The Black Sisters will be active. Openly active. Of course the black sister will likely disguise themselves, and Alviarin wont realise she has been marked.

 

Secondly, time works so much differently in the ways that it would be very difficult to time the BA diversion to the actual arrival your hypothetical trolloc and dreadlord hordes.

 

Which is why the Black Sisters will wait for the incursion to begin before striking. I dont really see this as being an issue. Striking before the incursion began would be foolish anyway.

 

Thirdly, an inverted shadowspawn killing ward would not be nessecarily instantly noticeable. The one that Rand put on the shadr logoth gate did not instantly kill, instead it gave the trollocs time to clear the gate before they died. Such a ward would be undetectable until well after the defenders were aware of a breach.

 

I never suggested the inverted weave would be detected by Trollocs dying. I suggested the Black Ajah would assume it was there, and destroy it. Assuming they didn't actually witness it being woven. Or do you think that the Shadow would not concider the possibility that the Waygate would be warded when essentially every other waygate in the world is?

 

Fourth, given the scenario you laid out with circles of defenders, how hard would it be for a smart circle leader to simply destroy the gate? A circle of thirteen could and has destroyed a waygate before.

 

Yes. It was hard, and incredibly dangerous, but they did it. If such a thing were tried here the blacks need onely wait for the right moment, and strike.

 

Dont get me wrong, i do concede there are ways the light could block this. Pevara could arrest Alviarin. There could be wards within the ways that the dreadlords miss. If someone was clever there could be sa'angreal in play. Machin Shin could be naughty.

 

The issue is that a) Launching such an attack would be reasonable, and strategically sound for the general of the Shadow. b) that RJ could do it without it being mocked.

 

Seriously, if you read the situation i described would you go "Come on RJ, they should have made the bottleneck"

 

Concider that... i mean Rand should have used the Choedan Kal against the trollocs in KoD, or the Seanchan in PoD. Did he? No.

 

Just because there are paths that could stop this doesn't make it unlikely. Its wether the paths in which it does happen seem like stretches. People achieving things they shouldn't and the like. The degree to which the Aes Sedai prepare for assault through the ways depends entirely on how much forethought RJ allows Egwene. Has it occured to you that she may not even think of the Ways. As far as she is aware, no more then a hundred Trollocs could make it through, at best. It may not even occur to her to concider them a threat.

 

I was showing that even if Egwene has a lot of forethought that a bottleneck is not as easy to achieve in light of the situation as Robert makes out.

 

Lastly, it has been pointed out that at least one of the waybridges to tar valon was warded against shadowspawn, and that the triggering of said ward was sufficient to destroy the bridge. I find it very likely that if one of the bridges were warded, that they all were, and I find the idea that one of the forsaken would willingly step foot into the ways, given the dangers, to unward them, to be an unlikely one at best. Remeber the wards that protect Tar Valon proper are in some cases hundreds if not thousands of years old. Also we should remember that sufficiently nasty wards need not be inverted to give the forsaken pause. Rand didn't invert the wards on callanor at first, but no male forsaken felt like taking the risk of trying to unspin those wards.

 

I addressed this as well. Those wards were woven by men, the last male Aes Sedai died hundreds of years before Tar Valon was built. The warding we saw is a generic warding they built into the ways, and given the success we see elsewhere, likely one of the few, or one of the last to have survived the change in the ways. Moreover whilst the forsaken likely wont enter the ways, the wouldn't be opposed to sending dreadlords in. A forsaken trained dreadlord, likely someone who was specifically taught how to unspin wardings... no, i dont see any problem with wardings. Or rather, i dont see RJ having any problem explaining why wardings weren't an issue.

 

Thats just flat out not true.

 

Umm... yes it is.

 

Any Aes Sedai can ward the Waygate behind the Trollocs that have already emerged, leaving the Trollocs in the city isolated and easily manageable.

 

And any dreadlord can slice that weave. Even assuming they have that sort of time to weave that weave, with explosions raining down on them, a thousand darkfriends attacking them, and a thousand trollocs attacking them...

 

Or a quick non-channeler strike could cut them off from the Waygate and snatch out the Avendesora leaves.

 

I specifically said the waygate would be a blown open. If not when they are first leaving, then when this quick non-channeler strike you seem to think is possible, happens. We know this is possible.

 

Seriously though. By that stage a thousand trollocs would be amongst the defenders, who would still be fighting the blacks. By the time the defenders dealt with those three thousand more trollocs would be in the clearing. Assuming the defenders arn't all dead by then, and they manage to deal with them as well its up to 15,000, by which time the waygate is solidly held by the trollocs and the defenders are being pushed back.

 

If Loial and Gaul could close the Waygate at Manetheren (which was apparently not unguarded), why do you think Gareth Bryne and 50,000 soldiers, or even some lietentant in charge of 500, couldn't do the same at Tar Valon?

 

Yes, because the entire army is going to be in the Grove with a million trollocs are attacking the city.

 

And yes, at that stage i can see some wily young leiutenant, or Aes Sedai getting to the gate, even though it would be hard concidering both would be fighting for their lives... what then? Wish the gate shut?

 

The Waygate can get cut off during a Trolloc assault as many ways as it can be cut off during a Trolloc assault. And unless the Black Ajah learned to invert or reverse their weaves, then the Tower Aes Sedai can feel and converge on their sabotage in much greater numbers. A beachead through the Waygate does NOT guarantee success. The Light can sabotage the Waygate to its benefit much more easily than the Shadow can sabotage it to theirs.

 

I'm sorry, that sentence doesn't seem to make any sense... which is probably my fault. Why wouldn't the Aes Sedai know inverting? All the Aes Sedai by that stage would know inverting. In point of fact i specifically addressed that. And reversing too. And a beachead through the waygate DOES assure success. The only way that containment of the waygate can be assured is to kill them as they are coming out, whilst they are forced to move only in pairs in one area. Once you have a thousand trollocs amongst your defenders then you cannot spare the attention to kill every trolloc coming out. The force will increase and increase until you cant even contain it.

 

This is not a stargate Robert. You cannot cut off the gate by closing it. Yes, you can shut and lock the door, but that door can be blown to pieces.

 

But the rest i dont understand.

 

Given that logic, the Black Ajah is unassailable.

 

How so? I'm not suggesting the black ajah would win, or that they cant be defeated. Im suggesting they can divert attention from the gate long enough for at least a thousand get out, after which there i not containing the foothold.

 

By the way, let me propose an alternate plan to the one you proposed. If they have any inkling beforehand that Trollocs are coming, TAKE OUT THE STUPID AVENDESORA LEAVES.

 

Yeah, coz that worked so well against Moiraine.

 

Thats why I think any leader who allows the Waygate to be used is a moron (or radish). They can solve an obvious leak (the ONLY obvious leak) in Tar Valon's defenses right now. It is almost inconceivable to me that at least SOME Aes Sedai don't know that the Shadow is using the Ways. Egwene certainly knows. Pull out two leaves, and its the most secure spot in the city.

 

I think that perhaps you havn't really thought about that. A channeler can break open a waygate even with both leaves removed. Recall that that was the warning Loial gave 'only an Aes Sedai could open the gate now'.

 

Seriously, the only way to hold a waygate is to kill anything that comes through. Something that can be done because of the bottleneck factor, but only so long as fire against the invaders can be maintained. Distract people from that fire, get a sufficient force out, and the defenders arn't going to be able to maintain that fire.

 

Lock the gate, they bust it open. Ward it, they unspin it. And yes, the Shadow must have concidered that the Waygate may be warded. Essentially every other gate in the world have been warded. Something Moridin has known since book seven. Wards, inverted or not, are not foolproof. And this one, if its even there at all, isn't even one designed at stopping channelers.

 

I haven't said it won't happen. I said its a bad plan IF they're actually concerned with owning real estate in Tar Valon.

 

You thinking getting a hundred thousand trollocs inside tar valon is a bad plan, or are you referring to the assault itself?

 

I still dont get why you think thats a bad plan. The situation could not be set up better.

 

Quote:

Do you think it unlikely that at the very least 1 in 5 sisters are black?

 

 

Frankly, yes, I think that highly unlikely. But thats opinion.

 

Fair enough. But why do you think it unlikely? Because it makes the Shadow more dangerous when you have been trying to downplay their strength because you dont like the assault at tar valon?

 

Given how much we have seen them i find it doubtful. How do you reconcile the Shadow only having 150 channelers altogether?

 

You seem to be suggesting that the Shadow is not a threat.

 

Tar Valon isn't just "a city with walls". Its well-designed to be essentially impregnable. The walls completely encircle the island, rising right out of the water. Fortified positions with internal supply methods for food, water, and materiel regularly withstood ten and twenty to one odds in the real world, and Tar Valon is better fortified than any real city has ever been. Sieges weren't invented for fun. It would make sense for the Shadow to besiege Tar Valon, as I've already said.

 

And thats all dandy. Doesn't change a thing though. A million trollocs sustaining constant attack in a city where there are hundreds, if not thousands of darkfriends ready to sabotage the defence.

 

Even a well designed city with all that jazz would fall. No matter how you describe it.

 

The Trollocs do not have easy access to the walls. They either have to come down predictable assault routes (the bridges, assuming the vegetable in charge of the city doesn't destroy them. In military parlance those would be called "killzones"), or mount an amphibious assault (which would turn out the way Hitler imagined D-Day would turn out, resulting in "water pollution").

 

Yes, they will, which is the ONLY reason the city doesn't fall out of hand. This is at best 10 to 1 odds with traitors in the mix. The ONLY reason the city doesn't fall in minutes is because of all those fancy defences. But thats as far as it goes.

 

Oh, and your killzone is wide enough for ten trollocs abrest and a thousand trollocs in rank. There are eight of them. They have channelers to protect them from your killing as they attack, and draghkar to distract you from your killing as they attack. The channeler you a relying on to stop their channeler may very well be one of their channelers, and the man guarding your back may very well be about to put a knife in it.

 

Your right. The defenders are in a great position.

 

Quote:

Do you think there has ever been case where a general could take such a powerful position with such ease? This is as good as it gets.

 

 

Thats about what Xerxes said as he pulled up to Thermopylae.

 

I am sure Xerxes did not have a million troops, each above eight feet, enemy insurgents amongst their ranks, flying beasts to cover his attacks and a force behind enemy lines.

 

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Now, assuming some dreadlord doesn't manage to get in some lucky shot with balefire, or some equally destructive weave, and blow one of those gates sky high, the defenders could only hold for a little while anyway, no matter how high their walls.

 

 

I doubt anyone but the Forsaken can hit Tar Valon from across the river. Its pretty big. And the Shadow apparently has very, VERY few angreal, and no sa'angreal. Whereas Tar Valon is literally sitting on a stockpile. Rings of Aes Sedai could pummel the Shadow from across the river, but the Shadow isn't taking down their walls without getting much closer.

 

I doubt your doubt. Any channeler could strike Tar Valon from accross the river. Egwene states this in Crossroads of Twilight. As if it were ever in contention--channelers can strike in their line of sight, though there is an outer limit to that. Tar Valon is far from being far enough away to fit that outer limit.

 

And yes, there are angreal and sa'angreal in Tar Valon. Now assuming that they dont end up in black sisters hands, or the Seanchan, they will prove useful to the Aes Sedai. Not enough to change the long term course of the battle, of course.

 

The walls of Tar Valon are Power reinforced, which should hold them up against most anything short of balefire, which I doubt is common knowledge even among the Dreadlords.

 

The gates are the weak point. Hit that and you could break it open. And yes, i could see one of the Forsaken using balefire in this case. Reversed, likely, but even if they dont, a circle of dreadlords could provide the strength to punch one of the gates open.

[RobertAlexWillis]

I am sure Xerxes did not have a million troops, each above eight feet, enemy insurgents amongst their ranks, flying beasts to cover his attacks and a force behind enemy lines.

 

Well, he did have just over a million troops, whose discipline made up for their lack of size (including a good number of mounted troops and elephants). He didn't have flying beasts, but frankly, Draghkar are assasins, not assault troops. A couple hundred organized archers can keep them at bay. They're fragile in the air and can't hypnotize whole groups. And it was only through betrayal that Xerxes pushed his way through at Thermopylae ... Ephialtes (an former leader of Greek colonies) led a portion of the Persian army in the night through the pass of Anopaea. Also, the Theban contingent did defect between the second and third day (between 1/3 and 1/5 of the force).

 

The important thing here is 1) Thermopylae was not even CLOSE to being as defensible as Tar Valon, and 2) The greek force was less than a tenth of the size of the force in Tar Valon, a twentieth if the rebel and Tower armies combine.

 

Thats why I said, "The Shadow may have an Ephialtes in Alviarin, but the Waygate has no Anopaea." You can't bypass the Waygate or the Walls of Tar Valon. The whole package is thoroughly more defensible than the pass at Thermopylae.

 

I specifically said the waygate would be a blown open.

 

Has a Waygate ever been blown open from the inside? Or the outside, assuming that the Black Ajah could do THAT without anyone noticing. You're basing your strategy on something we don't even know can be done. A circle of 13 with a sa'angreal destroyed a Waygate once. Loial didn't say it produced a useful passage, or that anyone moved through it safely. He equated it to destroying the gate. (TSR ch. 43) For clarity, allow me to quote:

 

"A Waygate was destroyed once, less than five hundred years after the Breaking, according to Damelle ... But she wrote that it was very difficult, and required thirteen Aes Sedai working together with a sa'angreal." He goes on to describe other attempts with lesser groups that failed.

 

He speculates later in the same speech "I suppose an Aes Sedai could cut a hole in it." (after both leaves were removed). It had never been done.

 

We've never seen it done successfully. Thats a little bit of a shaky basis, I would say.

 

Why wouldn't the Aes Sedai know inverting?

 

Who is there to teach the Black Ajah? Alviarin clearly didn't know it, and even the tricks she has picked up she's forbidden to share. The wonder girls and Rand have learned lots of cool stuff thats not available to the Black Ajah at large. I can't recall any instance of the Black Ajah using inverted weaves. Rand learned it from Asmodean, the wonder girls learned it from the Moghedien. Even Cadsuane and co. don't know it, or why wouldn't they have taught the defenders at the Cleansing? Cadsuane may know it NOW, but the knowledge is not widespread, especially in Tar Valon.

 

And a beachead through the waygate DOES assure success.

 

You're telling me a beachead of say, 500 Trollocs could hold the gate against a couterattack of several thousand? A beachead does NOT guarantee success. Lots of castles and fortified towns lost a gate only to regain it in the course of a battle. A small beachead that is outnumbered can be either destroyed or pushed off, allowing the Light two minutes to remove the Avendesora leaves or ward the Waygate.

 

Wish the gate shut?

 

Takee Leaves outee.

 

Fair enough. But why do you think it unlikely?

 

Why do you think it's likely? Because it makes the Shadow more dangerous when you have been trying to play up their strength because you like the assault at Tar Valon? Neither of us has any solid numbers, either for the Black Ajah or the number of regular Darkfriends in Tar Valon. We just know they're not the majority, especially after Egwene is in charge.

 

A million trollocs sustaining constant attack in a city where there are hundreds, if not thousands of darkfriends ready to sabotage the defence.

 

First of all, the whole million can't even get at the city at once. Even Trollocs have to sleep, and six broken bridges don't offer good access to the walls. Thats the whole point of fortification. It limits the number of enemies you have to fight at once.

 

Even a well designed city with all that jazz would fall. No matter how you describe it.

 

Military history disagrees with you. Good fortifications regularly withstood the odds you're proposing.

 

The gates are the weak point. Hit that and you could break it open. And yes, i could see one of the Forsaken using balefire in this case. Reversed, likely, but even if they dont, a circle of dreadlords could provide the strength to punch one of the gates open.

 

Destroy the bridges, and they can't walk through the gates. They'll still have to cross water to get to you. Taking out the bridges is standard procedure in a fortified position. Thats why castles had a moat and a drawbridge.

 

All of these things you're proposing, fortifications are specifically designed to prevent, and from all descriptions, Tar Valon is almost the perfect fortified city. Tar Valon can take at LEAST 10 to 1 odds, and probably closer to 20 to 1. Trollocs are perfect cannon fodder.

 

You seem to be suggesting that the Shadow is not a threat.

 

I'm suggesting that the Shadow is a different kind of threat.

 

I'm not saying the Shadow won't do it. I'm saying they'll do it and fail. But a military failure may not be as much of a failure as it would seem.

 

Actually, I think the Shadow is more dangerous than you do. You think that taking Tar Valon matters to them, and that they'll fail (albeit causing much more damage). I think that, whether they take it or not, they'll advance their true objective of helping Shai'tan that much closer to freedom.