Eqwene's Seanchan woman dream

[Ciete]

I dont have my books right now, but didnt Egwene have a dream about a Seanchan woman w/a sword on her back offering her help? (I think she recoiled from the dream due to her time as a damane)

 

In KOD (I belive Chapter 36 "Under an Oak") Banner General Kadre is describing Egeanin, and he mentions the sword strapped to her back. Could Egeanin be the woman in Egwene's dream?

[RobertAlexWillis]

The woman, whose face continually shifts, is probably a symbol of the Seanchan nation as a whole. The meaning of the Dream is likely that Egwene will, like Rand, have to reach some kind of accomodation with the Seanchan in order to bring the Tower through Tarmon Gai'don. The Seanchan nation could rightly be symbolized by a female figure because it is led by an Empress, and its power is based on damane and sul'dam. It is unlikely that it represents a single woman, but the most likely candidate, if it does, is Tuon, in my opinion.

[reyler]

In Egwene's dreams, people usually mean people, while organizations are represented by things. I rather thought that, if it represented a single person, it would be Egeanin. The shifting face makes sense in light of the identity issues she's been having, and a sword makes more sense for her than Tuon. And frankly, Egeanin is much more likely to get through to Egwene than Tuon. Plus, in Nynaeve's last meeting with Egwene and the Wise Ones in TSR, she thinks about having not mentioned Egeanin, saying "it was not as if she need ever meet the woman". Any time somebody outright denies something like that in WoT, my radar starts going off.

[RobertAlexWillis]

Well, I reckon we'll find out. I'm not so attached to this one that I'm going to argue it. I think its Tuon and the Seanchan in general, but there isn't so much evidence that I would say "No, it can't be Egeanin".

 

I'm not sure exactly what Egeanin could do, by herself, to save Egwene, but stranger things have happened.

[reyler]

It's not so much that Egeanin could save Egwene from this or that, it's that Egwene has some justified prejudices to get past if she's to be working with the Seanchan, and at the moment Egeanin is the best person representing the Seanchan to help her do that. Nynaeve and Elayne were able to consider her a friend by the end of TSR. Sure, it could be tuon, but she's got a lot of stuff to shovel through herself before she's any good to Egwene.

[RobertAlexWillis]

Personally, I don't see how Egeanin would be any better than anyone else to get Egwene past her prejudices. Tuon at least is in a position to negotiate a meaningful agreement/compromise. But as I say, we'll see.

[reyler]

Egeanin is Seanchan, but has already abandoned most of the social conditioning and inborn tradition that comes with it. Egwene would have an easier time relating to her than to Tuon. Conversely I suppose Alivia might be even more appropriate, having never bought into the Seanchan party line. Egwene can find a common ground with both of them. Tuon has the political status, but she's still planning an assault on the Tower, and she has to work out the hatred she's built up since learning she could channel (if she didn't already know).

 

I might just be hanging on too tight to Nynaeve's POV comment I referenced before. That just seemed like it was being screamed at us.

[RobertAlexWillis]

I would think Alivia would be a more likely choice than Egeanin. Egeanin is having too much of a personal identity crisis to persuade dogs to chase cats, much less influence a VERY strong willed Egwene to change her mind. Besides, if Nynaeve gets to Egwene first, she'll NEVER trust Egeanin, considering how Nynaeve feels about what happened with the sad bracelets.

 

Frankly, I don't think any one person will change Egwene's mind. I don't think any "common ground" is going to convince Egwene. I think the realities of the situation are going to force Egwene to deal with the Seanchan, which is why honestly, I don't think the shifting-face woman is any single person.

[Luckers]

I agree with robert in a sense. To me the Seanchan woman in the dream is the Seanchan army, not the Seanchan nation. Specifically i believe it refers to Tuon, having reached an alliance with Rand, coming to Tar Valon to find the city under seige by Shadow (as one of the initial attacks of Tarmon Gai'don, the others coming out of Tarwin Gap (to be met by Lan)*, the Shadows Lance (to be met by the force Rhuarc has gathered) and the Shadow Coast(through the Ways, to attack the Seanchan-held Amadacia)) whilst the Seanchan invasion force (the one massing in KoD) does nothing. I believe that Tuon will lead the Seanchan against to aid egwene, thus staving off defeat and fulfilling the dream.

 

But yes, between the blurry, ever shifting face, the fact that the sword is the significant part of the image, and the overall femininity of the image i find it extremely likely that the figure represents the Seanchan army as led by Tuon, then some specific individual.

 

In Egwene's dreams, people usually mean people, while organizations are represented by things.

 

Perhaps, though im not sure i agree, but concider that in this image it is the sword, and not the person, which is significant. "There was a sword strapped to her back. Her face wavered, never settling clearly, but the sword seemed as solid as the stone." The humanity in the image is unimportant, it is the object, the sword, and all it represents that is emphasized.

 

 

 

 

*I concider it likely that this one will also be the one that attacks Tar Valon, after driving Lan ahead of them.

[Phiotr AlManera]

After her experiences Tylee Khirgan had with Perrin, I thought it could be likely that the seanchan attack on the White Tower will involve forkroot. That could explain the relative succes of a smaller attack force using raken.

I don't know however wether the seanchan were aware of forkroot at the time they first made up their planes. (CoT: Chapter 4, first mentionned)

[RobertAlexWillis]

After her experiences Tylee Khirgan had with Perrin, I thought it could be likely that the seanchan attack on the White Tower will involve forkroot.

 

Except that because of the experiences General Khirgan had with Perrin, the Empire is a little low on forkroot at the moment. As I recall, he took ... um ... all the prepared forkroot.

 

Unless they're gonna wait to plant a new crop, I'd say their supply is a little low at the moment. They might have already had some set aside, but I doubt its enough to make a huge difference.

 

Besides, how are they going to get the Tower Aes Sedai to drink it? They can't really contaminate the whole river the way Perrin did the aqueduct to Malden.

[PrinceOfRavens]

Cant the shifty and weird face have anything to do with the personal identity crisis Egeanin is in? I mean shes not sure how shes called herself lol. So it might be that that is why the face is blurry? Its a long shot i know lol :lol:

[Phiotr AlManera]

Egeanin was also one of the first seanchan to discover the truth about the damane and sul'dam.

 

I'd say their supply is a little low at the moment.

Besides, how are they going to get the Tower Aes Sedai to drink it?

True.

I can't figure out how the seanchan plan to do a serious attack on the WT. I don't see how they intend to reach a tactical advantage.

[Luckers]

I thought it could be likely that the seanchan attack on the White Tower will involve forkroot. That could explain the relative succes of a smaller attack force using raken.

 

This isn't actually as large of an issue as it would appear. The Seanchan have 1000 to'raken with the return, each capable of carrying 12 men and armour (which means more sul'dam and damane, incidently, but ill leave the number at 12).

 

Now that means a force of 12,000. My guess is that it will be 3,000 damane, 3,000 sul'dam and 6,000 soldiers. But it could be much more. 4,000 damane, or even 6,000, though that would likely gut the Empire.

 

The fact is that 3,000 damane and sul'dam makes a very effective invasion force. One that i do not see the White Tower shrugging off.

[Kalythase Breen]

The question we should be asking about the dream is why Egwene needed rescuing from the cliff, and why did the Seanchan have the advantage of being able to climb? :roll:

What sort of agreement will Egwene have to come to with the Seanchan?

I sort of want to pair this dream together with the one she had of the Seanchan attacking the White Tower. The two ravens wobbling the lamp and white flame. Drops of flaming oil flew out, some of the farther drops burned out, but the drops surrounding the lamp remained alight.

I think a decision will be reached - and I think the Seanchan may have the advantage in that decision. As to what it is, I can only guess.

[Phiotr AlManera]

Now that means a force of 12,000. My guess is that it will be 3,000 damane, 3,000 sul'dam and 6,000 soldiers. But it could be much more. 4,000 damane, or even 6,000, though that would likely gut the Empire.

 

The fact is that 3,000 damane and sul'dam makes a very effective invasion force. One that i do not see the White Tower shrugging off.

 

Make that 6000 soldiers, 2500 sul'dam bonded with 2500 damane and 1000 free sul'dam.

 

Yes, it's a good point, it's a very powerfull force but what would you recon then to be the goal of such an operation? Disruption? They should be aware that they won't be able to actually capture and hold the WT, I think? It's also a very valuable force to use like that. They would want the raken and at least the sul'dam to survive. The operation you describe there is very risky to their resources. A big gamble, or not? What are they to gain?

[Guest Anonymous!]

I agree with RoberAlexisWillis on the interpretation of the Seanchan woman, though I'm leaning toward it symbolizing ALL Damane/Sul'Dam rather than Tuon. I have included the link to Egwene's Dream section of the WoT FAQ, so you don't have to dig through the books.

http://www.steelypips.org/wotfaq/4_prophecy/4.1_egwene-drm.html

 

Yes, it's a good point, it's a very powerful force but what would you recon then to be the goal of such an operation? Disruption? They should be aware that they won't be able to actually capture and hold the WT, I think? It's also a very valuable force to use like that. They would want the raken and at least the sul'dam to survive. The operation you describe there is very risky to their resources. A big gamble, or not? What are they to gain?

 

Well since Jordan has never given any attention to logistics and sustainability before, I don't see that being a problem. While it appears that all of the Seanchan generals appear to be well-trained in a uniform doctrine, this doesn't prevent the possibility that Jordan won't have the Seanchan do something idiotic to fulfill a major storyline.

 

Luckers, your calculations are a little off. According to the The Guide, a To'Raken is larger than a Raken and can carry a 1,000 lb load 200 miles, in addition to its handler. A Raken has the girth and is much longer than a horse. According to the National Center for Health Statistics the average woman weighs about 160 lbs and the average man about 190 lbs. Even if we shave off 20% off the weight, since Randlanders don't have the abundance of food that we have in the modern day US that is still 128 lbs and 162 lbs respectively. Since its winter and they will be flying, add on 15 lbs of clothes to each person. Plus for every male soldier add 50 lbs of armor, weapons, and equipment, which brings the totals up to 143 lbs for women and 227 lbs for men. So that would be a maximum soldiers army is 4,000. Or a force of 3,500 Damane/Sul'dam pairs for the Channeler only force for 1000 To'Raken.

 

Not to mention food. Since To'Raken and Raken are larger than horses let's assume that a To'Raken needs to eat at least the same amount of food that a horse does in a day, which is about 24 pounds of food. A man needs about 2 pounds of bread a day for minimal activity, and a woman needs about 1.5 pounds of bread. So for an all soldier load that would be an additional 34 lbs of food a day added to the already existing load human load. From northern Altara to the White Tower is about 1,400 miles, so that is 1 week of travel. So each To'Raken will have to carry 238 pounds.

 

Add in the fact that you need a 100 paces take-off/and landing zone for 1000 To'raken you will spend half your day looking for a camp ground. Also the landing zones must be near rivers so they will have water, else you will have to carry water with you, which is a lot of weight. (I'm ignoring water right now, which isn't exactly accurate since you would have to assume soldiers will carry water skins) If you want your To'Raken to fly as a group, most of your To'Raken won't make the 200 miles since they will have to circle over the camp waiting for the other units to take-off like bombers in World War II.

 

Of course all of this is a one way trip...what about the return flight for reinforcements? You will need to still have 24 pounds a day for the To'Raken, plus 2 pounds a day for the handler. Assuming they can fly at double the rate without a full 1000 lb load, then the trip is reduced to 4 days, and that load is only 104 lbs. So a total food weight will be 342 lbs.

 

So your maximum load carried by the To'Raken will be 1000 lb's * 1000 To'Raken for a total of 1,000,000 lb effective load. Each To'Raken will carry 342 lbs of food for a total of 342,000 lbs of food, leaving 658,000 lbs for soldiers (227 lbs) and damane/sul'dam (286 lbs) pairs. So a good mixed force of 2,000 troops and 700 damane/sul'dam pairs is more realistic. Quite frankly that seems like suicide to me.

 

****KoD Spoilers****

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****KoD Spoilers****

 

Luckers when you wrote "even 6,000, though that would likely gut the Empire” in your above post, does that mean both sides of the Aryth Ocean? Or just the Randland side? Because after KoD, the Empire on the other side of the ocean no longer exists.

 

****KoD Spoilers****

****KoD Spoilers****

****KoD Spoilers****

[Phiotr AlManera]

Well since Jordan has never given any attention to logistics and sustainability before, I don't see that being a problem.

I would tend to disagree with you on those points. RJ wrote a lot on logistics and I can't directly think of a sustainability-problem.

 

this doesn't prevent the possibility that Jordan won't have the Seanchan do something idiotic to fulfill a major storyline

Again, this would be a first time then.

 

Also, we're quite sure that there will be a raken-attack on the WT.

[Luckers]

The question we should be asking about the dream is why Egwene needed rescuing from the cliff, and why did the Seanchan have the advantage of being able to climb?

 

I dont think it is a literal cliff. This is how i see it playing out. The Seanchan attack the Tower itself, ignoring, at least for the moment, the city. They manage to leash a large number of the Aes Sedai within the Tower (perhaps as many as a hundred to a hundred and fifty of them). Egwene will gather the novices, and lead an attempt to rescue to Aes Sedai, possibly with Silviana's help. Elaida will either be leashed, or hesitate when Tarna brings the news, leaving Egwene to take charge (I think its possible that this attack with take place during Egwenes dinner with the Amyrlin.)

 

In any case, after initially attempting to fight with the novices and whatever Aes Sedai she manages to gain, she realises that the Seanchan force is simply too strong within the Tower. She retreats to the Rebel camp and gathers them to lead a counter attack.

 

By this time, however, Seanchan hold on the Tower itself is too strong, or perhaps the Seanchan flee into the city itself. Either way position is the only way the Seanchan can survive against a travelling army of a hundred thousand (between city and rebel forces) and near 1,500 channelers, even with their superior numbers of channelers. But that superior number makes it impossible for the Aes Sedai to win. It settles to a stale mate, with only limited battles.

 

This is when the Trolloc forces arrive, either through the Ways, or out of Tarwin Gap, driving Lan ahead of them. I also suspect this to be the time a confrontation between the Black Ajah and Hunters will take place. In any case the Aes Sedai come under siege, and are only just managing to hold of the shadowspawn. The Seanchan meantime sit in the Tower, not getting involved, even though they too are at risk.

 

This is when Tuon arrives, having reached an alliance with Rand that involves the ceasation of all hostilities, including the leashing of marath'damane. Upon arriving Tuon sees the Aes Sedai on the verge of defeat, and leads the Seanchan forces against them. Between the two they manage to break the Trolloc attack, and drive them back from the city.

 

Thats how i see the prophecy being fulfilled. Tuon leading the Seanchan to drive off the shadowspawn, thereby saving the Aes Sedai--perhaps not intentionally, but you get what i mean.

 

Make that 6000 soldiers, 2500 sul'dam bonded with 2500 damane and 1000 free sul'dam.

 

Perhaps, perhaps not. Remember that one sul'dam can control more then one damane... oh, im sure they'll bring some uncomplete sul'dam, but i doubt in that number.

 

what would you recon then to be the goal of such an operation? Disruption? They should be aware that they won't be able to actually capture and hold the WT, I think? It's also a very valuable force to use like that. They would want the raken and at least the sul'dam to survive. The operation you describe there is very risky to their resources. A big gamble, or not? What are they to gain?

 

I think leashing the Aes Sedai is the ultimate goal. And i think they can manage it, at least in the Tower, even against a travelling enemy--though not forever, thats where the shadowspawn come in. And they wont hold all of Tar Valon... they dont have a large enough force to hold the whole city.

 

I think the Tower needs to be taken and held by the Seanchan anyway--for thematic reasons mostly, to get Aes Sedai away from the supposed invincibility of the tower. Call it an objective lesson.

 

The one question i have is if they'll attack the Rebels during the initial attack... i doubt it, they dont have the numbers to go against a force that large in open combat, and splitting their forces would be dangerous. I think it likely they'll strike straight for the Tower.

 

Luckers when you wrote "even 6,000, though that would likely gut the Empire” in your above post, does that mean both sides of the Aryth Ocean? Or just the Randland side? Because after KoD, the Empire on the other side of the ocean no longer exists.

 

Which is why i only mean on this side of the ocean. It's not like damane in seanchan could take part in the attack force anyway.

 

As for my calculations, perhaps they are off. They were based on a scene wherein a To'raken is seen landing with a dozen people. I cannot place where i read it, though i think it was in LoC. If that is the case, then its possible there are more to'raken. That limited number seems to few for this attack.

[Guest Anonymous!]

Luckers: Well I will go back and check the description of To'Raken in the Guide to confirm the "1000 lbs for 200 miles" data point. I did all that off of memory, so if it is actually 2000 lbs for 200 miles, then...well...that would change a lot.

 

Luckers, that was an interesting interpretation of Egwene's dream. I can't see any real weak points that I can contradict. The only issue I have with your possible future is that it will take months to happen if it relies on Lan being chased from Tarwin's Gap to Tar Valon. I mean he is still months away from reaching Tarwin's Gap, and I don't really feel like reading another book about Egwene "embracing the pain" for 6 months. It was bad enough in KoD.

 

My idea for what will happen from this dream can be found here (scroll down a bit):

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=251834&highlight=#251834

 

If you are a proponent of the 10-15 million people (as a total population) in Randland then the Seachan shouldn't have that many Damane in their conquered territories. From the numbers Jordan gave us in his blog, the Seanchan shouldn't have found more than a couple of thousand "natural" channelors in those territories. Including 3000 Damane in the aerial offensive would be committing every Seanchan Damane to an offensive that is tactically, operationally, and strategically flawed.

 

Ph'iotr Al'Manera: Jordan's armies don't have sustainment issues since he ignores logistics. You don't look at the Aiel War, and the most recent Aiel invasion with Rand and laugh at his lack of explanation for logistics. You didn't laugh when Jordan told us that Tear had record harvests after Mat had described drought conditions thanks to the never ending summer. Not to mention that all of the surplus food should be gone since Tear is supporting Cairhein (since they were in civil war, followed by Aiel invasion, they shouldn't have had a good harvest), and the whole of the Aiel army, which numbers in the ~400,000 range.

 

Almost in every novel he has written, people do really idiotic things to advance the storyline. So it has happened, and more than likely it will happen again. As you said we have seen evidence that there is some sort of Seanchan aerial attack planned against the White Tower. Jordan saying it is going to happen doesn't change the fact that the plan is foolish.

[Luckers]

Luckers: Well I will go back and check the description of To'Raken in the Guide to confirm the "1000 lbs for 200 miles" data point. I did all that off of memory, so if it is actually 2000 lbs for 200 miles, then...well...that would change a lot.

 

Lol, concidering mine is from a vague memory of an event in the books and yours is from a specific memory, i think you have the high ground.

 

My main issue is that we KNOW the Seanchan attack is going to happen, and that it will happen via to'raken... and we know that this attack is going to be strong enough to shake the Aes Sedai to the core... i just dont see the attack you suggest being strong enough... as indeed you pointed out yourself, which i concede.

 

Luckers, that was an interesting interpretation of Egwene's dream. I can't see any real weak points that I can contradict. The only issue I have with your possible future is that it will take months to happen if it relies on Lan being chased from Tarwin's Gap to Tar Valon. I mean he is still months away from reaching Tarwin's Gap, and I don't really feel like reading another book about Egwene "embracing the pain" for 6 months. It was bad enough in KoD.

 

Except we dont know the timelines of each, comparitively speaking. We do know, however, that the timelines arn't in sync. We see people in CoT reacting to events from WH... indeed, we see people in KoD reacting to events from WH.

 

Simplistically put, we have no idea of where Lan is when Egwene is captured.

 

If you are a proponent of the 10-15 million people (as a total population) in Randland then the Seachan shouldn't have that many Damane in their conquered territories. From the numbers Jordan gave us in his blog, the Seanchan shouldn't have found more than a couple of thousand "natural" channelors in those territories. Including 3000 Damane in the aerial offensive would be committing every Seanchan Damane to an offensive that is tactically, operationally, and strategically flawed.

 

Ok, several points.

 

1. Seanchan is much larger then Randland. Much.

 

2. Seanchan has a much more dense population. Again, much. Randland population has been dwindling since Artur Hawkwing, Seanchan population is... well, massive.

 

3. Aes Sedai numbers are limited by the Oath Rod, by their ignoring of women past the age of twenty (and how many woman between the age of 14 and 20 do you know who would have the strength of will to venture into a fuedal world on their own to join a sisterhood the majority of people concider to be evil) and their training. The Seanchan arnt bound to half-life by the oath rod, every woman gets tested, and every one trained.

 

4. Since arriving in Randland they have taken control of Almoth, Tarabon, Amadacia and Ebou Dar. Aside from the numerous wilders not welcome or counted in either the Kin or the Aes Sedai, they also leashed women in two of the lands the Kin favoured (excluding Amadacia of course). Then there is the Sea Folk, not all of whom escaped in Mats plan, and the Shaido Wise Ones--roughly four hundred of those.

 

No, for all that in seanchan they only leashed sparkers, and not all of those came to Randland with the Return, i think you underestimate the number of damane in Randlan. I'd place it between 4,000 and 8,000.

[Phiotr AlManera]

Almost in every novel he has written, people do really idiotic things to advance the storyline. So it has happened, and more than likely it will happen again. As you said we have seen evidence that there is some sort of Seanchan aerial attack planned against the White Tower. Jordan saying it is going to happen doesn't change the fact that the plan is foolish.

Hey Anonymous!, are you a fan of tWoT?

 

As for the food supplies, I'm quite sure that RJ can explain this in a lot of ways. I read in some of his interviews and blogs the way he answers this type of questions and it always surprises me the way he has this figured out.

I do agree this is a good point you made here but the mere fact that RJ doesn't really get into more detail doesn't make it impossible.

really idiotic things to advance the storyline

Still don't see this

[Kalythase Breen]

I dont think it is a literal cliff.

I meant it metaphorically.

I agree with your theory, though.

[Guest Anonymous!]

Ph'iotr Al'Manera: Umm, I wouldn't think critically about the series unless I was a fan. IF I disliked TWoT I would have put the books down and never thought twice about it. In this case, I cared enough about the series to actually think about the facts Jordan gave us, and realized some of the things don't make a whole lot of sense.

 

So you don't consider Rand's trap for the renegade Asha'man at the end of WH idiotic? You don't consider Egwene's decision to break White Tower law and do the harbor chain mission herself idiotic? Were they necessary to the storyline? Yes, but they were still idiotic.

 

Luckers: I actually think it is about 6,000 damane in Randland. Even if it was 10,000 damane in Randland, I would have trouble imagining a commander authorizing that mission. If you are right and the assault includes 3,000 damane/sul'dam pairs with 6,000 infantry, you are talking about commiting 30% (for 10,000 Damane case) of your force on an assault on a city with a realistic populaton of over 500,000 people, an army of 50,000 soldiers and 300 channelors, located 1400 miles into enemy territory and at least 2 weeks away from reinforcements and re-supply.

 

Considering how valuable Damane are to the Seanchan, I can't say it is a wise course of action. I can't even say its understandable under the circumstances. It's foolish, but Jordan wrote a "Seanchan assault on the White Tower" dream/prophecy, so now he has to make it happen. It is likely to fail, and since every Seanchan general appears to have gone to some sort of military school, they should see that.

[phlpr23]

So you don't consider Rand's trap for the renegade Asha'man at the end of WH idiotic? You don't consider Egwene's decision to break White Tower law and do the harbor chain mission herself idiotic? Were they necessary to the storyline? Yes, but they were still idiotic.

 

-No, I don't concider Rand's plan idiotic. Rand was afriad of channeling because he was afriad he was going mad. He also managed to protect and save some civilian lives by taking the fight to a place where his enemies could no longer channel. That and the fact that Rand is probably one of the top 10 Swords man in Randland, and he forced his opponents to take him on with swords. He also constantly moved from Inn to inn to avoid assassination .... As for Egwene, she didn't originally plan on doing it herself, but the women she had in mind ended up dead. She either had to do it herself, or have a novice do the task. An untried and innocent novice ... I don't like Egwene much anymore (mostly due to her selfishness and her belief that she is somehow better than 99% of the other people), but I'm not going to claim that her plan was stupid.