Maybe wait a little longer before stealing another player's reasoning? It's not subtle enough this way.

How did I set a trap for Ithi and Turin? I'm not being sarcastic, I'm genuinely confused at this idea. But that sporadic bit is BS. I've been under the gun since like page 7 and in a reactive mode trying to answer all the questions and defend my positions in the limited time I had during the biggest holiday on the Christian calendar.

Plan? You're gonna have to explain me to myself there. The tone, sure. I deserve that one. And I could blame Easter for being sporadic but that won't change anything.

*nearly everyone who is posting regularly

Only half the game roster is active, and nearly everyone has expressed at least a willingness to lynch Heavy. As the deadline gets closer, I predict votes will pile up because he's the path of least resistance.

When I flip town, people will look at Key with greater suspicion. The chain of causality goes like this: Heavy dies and is mafia. Therefore Iron, who everyone believes is defending Heavy, and who recently flipped on him (which is easily interpreted as turning because he's doomed) must be a teammate. Iron dies and is town. Knowing that, Key, who defended Heavy while sussing Iron for defending Heavy and pushing that narrative forward, looks like a manipulative mafia member. She dies next.

Tonal whiplash. Reading the thread straight through this morning, without having to jump back and forth between this game and holiday celebrations, it's much more noticeable that Heavy flips between aggressive and reasonable too fast. He's also sussing everyone who susses him like clockwork.

Doesn't matter, you'll outlive me. When Heavy flips scum, I'll be tomorrow's lynch. When I flip town, people will look at you with much greater suspicion. Correct.

Key is using me as cover. She defends Heavy, then points to me defending him (supposedly) loudly and frequently so that her more subtle and more skillful defense goes under the radar.

I guess if I forgot you then the "who" category is the natural fit No, that is not what I said. I'm not pretending to defend Heavy. I was waffling about whether I thought he was mafia or not, which a lot of people (some honestly, some maliciously) interpreted as defense. I landed on scum for him but so has everyone else, so I'm using my vote to make a point before inevitably changing it.

Nyn: Town Ithi: Town but less so Key, Heavy: Scum Turin, DPR, Ed: Possible lurking scum Dice, Verb: No read yet Rand, Tigraine:

And I'm saying that's fine, but it happened to give Key an excuse to pile on me. [Sazed voice] I am... sorry. [/Sazed voice] Vote Key. Equally willing to vote Heavy and likely to end up switching there since my crackpot theory won't take off until either Heavy or I is dead, but I'd like to put my vote where my mouth is at least once.

The timeline: First, people make jokes and vote each other, fun stuff. Heavy seems confused by our lack of reasoning to vote, joke votes are explained. This is the first emotionally charged post he makes. DPR, Ithi, and Ed immediately sus him for it, and right after that I say it doesn't seem alignment indicative. These posts are all back to back btw. Then after that, Heavy has the first thing that I'd call overreaction. Ok, he's starting to ping. Sure. I have to point out though that this is AFTER my "defense" of Heavy that Key is on about (see the end of this post). And I say as much: But I'm still trying to be nice because I'm under the impression the guy is new to Mafia. Here's that exchange: Dice comes in, drops what looks like a joke vote on Heavy, then post-facto converts it into a real vote. Ithi then starts the Marsh train. Her reasoning is that I'm defending heavy, which makes me either defending a teammate or white knighting a confused townie. Uses my unvote on Dice as a flawed part of the reasoning. Weird reason to vote me rather than Heavy, who she sussed in the same post, but Ithi is still on level footing reasons wise. It's not motivated reasoning. But what this does is give an opening. Nyn shows up, catches up, displays what even I remember is town!Nyn energy. Heavy calms down. At this point, Turin shows up, susses me and Dice for Dice knowing I'm almost a lawyer (?) and tries to give Heavy an out for language barrier. Subtle defense. And of course defending Heavy is sus, is it not? Here's Key's first significant contribution to the game. It begins by laying groundwork to sus me. Essentially, because in my first post about Heavy I didn't think his actions were alignment indicative, I'm defending him. But in the same post Key calls him new town. This is subtle defense by way of deflecting onto the available scapegoat, Ironeyes, who was freshly called out by Ithi, Nyn, and Turin. Then the next post: Yet more "you didn't include other people, hence sus." More subtle defense of Heavy as well: He might be town who got emotional because he doesn't want to die. Then look at this, she says Heavy is making pro town moves! And she's out for IRL stuff. Key shows up, defends Heavy in every post she makes before having to leave again, and then makes a big deal out of me "defending" him based on a post I made before he did most of the suspicious stuff. Hello Mrs. Key-ttle, I'm Mr. Pot. This is Page 10, but it's the biggest part of my point so I'm gonna be less detailed now.

Here's the TL;DR Heavy is scum. In an effort to be nice to what I thought was someone playing his first game, I made Ithi and Turin think I was defending him. Key took that opening and used it to push suspicion onto me while simultaneously defending Heavy in a more subtle way. They're teammates trying to make sure I go down next after Heavy flips scum.

Yes. Got class in 30 minutes. We'll see how far I can go. I'm building the background info rn Side note, Heavy said he was town in all three prior games, but also knows QTs for mafia aren't a thing any more? I didn't notice that originally.

That you and Heavy are scum. The megapost is under construction.

Surprising amount of activity in here on Easter Sunday. In the brief moment of transcendence between being asleep and awake this morning I solved the whole game. Then I woke up and found myself with nought but a crackpot theory. On a related note, does this site still have spoiler tags?

I also have a history of being scummy as town lol, so I had to come to peace with getting lynched

These are both accurate and good qualifiers to my core position. They modify the central analysis for me, though, they don't replace it

Interesting that so many of you guys are interpreting my stance on Heavy as a defense. In my mind, I was pulling back from an initial attack on him out of fear that I was about to lead a vicious lynch of a new player much like what happened to me in my first ever mafia game (Mistborn Mafia, might still be up on the forums somewhere). Perhaps I didn't make my suspicion clear enough before the pullback. Fair. That's what I intended to communicate originally.

1: Idk, Turin at the time was one of the only people openly trying to start making reads so he was top of mind First bold: Heavy said it was his "style" that gets him read as mafia frequently, and I wanted clarification. Second bold: Yeah, people get attached. People with something to lose get attached more easily. As rando vanilla townie, if I die I die and the survivors learn some things. It's not a bit deal on D1. As vanilla scum, if I die my team is down 25-50% of its membership and my death potentially clears the townies who killed me. There's a big mismatch of incentives there.

Joke vote part: I was saying that joke votes don't matter usually. Heavy was taking them very seriously. But sometimes they do, so I didn't want to gloss over that. Memery: I was messing with Turin. He was trying to make the game serious and I was saying that we might fluff post right over the top of him. As for my take on Heavy, how exactly is what I said any different from him being new town, as you said? I said he sounds like the new kid on a block of people who all know each other already.

I'll answer your questions eventually Key. It's difficult to do from my phone because when I quote the post, it removes the context of what you were asking me about and I can't scroll back without losing my post