Adam Whitehead is Dragonmount's TV blogger. Adam has been writing about film and television, The Wheel of Time, and other genre fiction for over fifteen years, and was a finalist for the Hugo Award for Best Fan Writer in 2020. Be sure to check out his websites, The Wertzone and Atlas of Ice and Fire (including The Wheel of Time Atlas!) as well as his Patreon.
It’s finally happened. The balloon has gone up, the Eagle has landed and the hounds have been released. The first three episodes of Wheel of Time hit Amazon Prime Television on 19 November after an intense two-month period of trailers, sneak peaks and featurettes, culminating in multiple premiere events at cities across the USA and several in Europe.
A question was by what standards would Amazon judge the show to be a success and if the show would hit those metrics. Streamers can be notoriously opaque about such things, although it also feels like there’s been a concerted effort recently by the likes of Netflix to deliver more data on how successful a show has been.
Amazon made a surprising early statement on the show’s success yesterday, when Amazon Studios head Jennifer Salke discussed the situation with industry bible Deadline. Salke was clearly delighted with the show’s early going, discussing the following points:
- The Wheel of Time is the most-watched Amazon series premiere of 2021, beating other high-profile shows including Invincible, Clarkson’s Farm, I Know What You Did Last Summer and The Underground Railroad. According to third-party company TV-I, The Wheel of Time was the #1 TV show through social media engagement last weekend and is the biggest Amazon Original series on social media this year.
- The Wheel of Time is one of the “Top 5 series launches of all time for Prime Video,” a list which includes shows such as The Grand Tour and The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel.
- The show had “tens and tens of millions of streams” in its first three days of release. The show has been most popular in the USA, India, Brazil, Canada, France and Germany.
- According to Parrot Analytics, The Wheel of Time has had Prime Video’s biggest opening since the Season 2 premieres of The Boys and Mirzapur in late 2019. Their analysis indicates that The Wheel of Time’s debut has outpaced that of The Witcher’s on Netflix in 2019 for global pre-release demand.
- Most importantly, Salke has said that the show is “trending to exceed our expectations, which were high.”
- Despite recent rumours to the contrary, Amazon have not yet renewed Wheel of Time for a third season. The second season is more than halfway done shooting in the Czech Republic (with additional location filming expected shortly in Morocco) but filming is expected to continue until spring, and the first season still has another five weeks to air, which will give Amazon more data about which to make a decision.
- However, The Wheel of Time’s success so far means that Salke and Amazon “have a good feeling the show will go on for years and years.”
- The success of Wheel of Time has left Amazon feeling buoyant for the release of their Lord of the Rings prequel series in September 2022 and also made them feel confident enough to announce that a TV series based on the Mass Effect video game franchise is also now in early development (though not greenlit yet).
Amazon’s metrics for the success of The Wheel of Time – or any of their original programming – are interesting, and different from the old network model which required the maximum number of eyes on the screen to sell advertising. The main thing Amazon will be looking for is new sign-ups: if people were not Amazon Prime members beforehand, but they sign up and the very first thing they watch is The Wheel of Time, that’s counted as a major success and makes a renewal or continuation of the show much more likely. This is why it’s important that the show gets a place in the cultural conversation: Netflix shows like The Witcher, Bridgerton, Stranger Things and, most recently, Squid Game and Arcane have been judged to be hits because they’ve driven lots of new subscriptions. Amazon have likewise judged shows like The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (and its impressive Emmy haul) and The Boys to be major successes because people sign up ahead of the new season of each show to watch it.
Amazon does have other metrics for success they will be looking at. People who watch The Wheel of Time and then buy merchandise related to the property on Amazon, or start buying the books via Amazon or reading them via Kindle, will factor in as well.
Critical acclaim is of course desirable, but less important than these other forms of success. Wheel of Time had a bumpy launch window, with fairly evenly split critics, but over the weekend a slew of more positive reviews drove up the Rotten Tomatoes score to 73%, ahead of the critical response for The Witcher’s first season (68%), with the possibility of further changes depending on the reception to the remaining episodes.
It is, of course, still early days overall, but The Wheel of Time’s early performance bodes well for the show to continue for many years to come.
As usual, please continue to follow developments on our casting and news pages and the forum and stay tuned for more info as we get it.
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